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My idea is to try out a few different strategies to see how well they work out. Please note that this will be high risk strategies, I am actually expecting poor results from this experiment so if somebody decides to follow, do it only for minimum stakes (beer money). I am a firm believer in theory that only way to be in the green with gambling is to treat it as investment. Meaning you have to have a bank and never bet more than 2% of that bank. My ideal bank would be around 2 BTC. Since I don't have that kind of money lying around available for gambling I will use payment from signature campaign every week to try out some high risk strategies and hopefully some of them will result with big winnings  ;D

Every week will be new betting system and new bank of 0.006 BTC. I usually have best results in Champions League and Master 1000 ATP tennis so I am expecting better results when games from that competitions are available.

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Week 1 ---- Starting bank: 0.006 BTC ---- Ending bank: = 0.00

This week I will try following system. I will play every ticket with 50% of the bank and all odds will be between 2 and 3.

Following this thread , let's see how this goes .

I bet on tennis matches too , not necessarily ATP 1000 but all tournaments . Will suggest you some matches if they are worth betting , anyway good luck with your betting.

I am also betting on all tennis matches from respectable tournaments, ATP 250+. I just said that I have best win ratio for ATP 1000 tournaments. I think it is because it is big stage and there is less corruption/fixed matches. Grand Slams are trowing my handicaps because they are best of 5 sets and players aren't so concentrated throughout whole match. They decide sometimes to let one set go and that is ruining my bets.

Good luck Trofo
I’m following this thread hoping that yor bank will grow and grow  ;)

Let's see how would this go, It's been a while since I saw some kind of this thread It's fun to follow this kind of thread and see what happens. If things go well I may follow you on your track lol, anyways Good luck!  ;)

Yes I'll be following this thread to see how you go - best of luck!

IMO this is a good starting attitude you are using your head and not planning on getting too emotional.

This is different,
if for example you are successful with a betting system it would be
normal to continue, like the saying "Dont fix what isnt broken"

I dont follow soccer, I find it unbelievably frustrating bordering on
boring [sorry] but I agree with your analysis, Solskjaer has had a
fantastic start at the helm, He was a solid player in his day for Utd!

Maybe I wasn't clear enough in OP. I will be trying out few different high risk systems which I am 100% sure would not be profitable in the long run. I just hope to make them work on a weakly basis with small investment and potential high gains. As I said I believe in the long run you can only be profitable by betting small amount of a big bank.

This is more like test for me and to get in the mood for serious (high stakes) betting later on when Tennis season is in full swing and I have about 1 BTC for bank. I should be able to invest that much of my own money in about 2 months but would prefer if I manage to get at least part of it by multiplying signature campaign money.

I often do test like that in excel table. That is how I know my strongest tips come from CL and ATP 1000 tennis. On them I have about 70% correct pics while on Soccer generally I have about 45% which is barley profitable. I decided to do it in this way this time to get input from other users. I would welcome ideas for betting strategy but let's keep it high risk/high gain in this first phase.

My opinion is that such strategy will not work, and you know two reasons which lie behind it. First is too small bank, and second is playing 50% of bank on ticket which means that you have only two chances under the assumption that you lose both times. But if you only want to try few different strategies and have fun along the way, why not try ;)


This is something which I can confirm from personal experience, bigger bank+less events on ticket (max 3) and max 10% of bank on each ticket. Such an approach requires great self-control, with extensive analysis of all games. Also playing both to score, team score, team score in first half or something similar is reducing the risk, chance is 50/50 for win/lost.

I did bookmarked this big_daddy’s thread when he did strategic run from couple of weeks ago

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5103165.msg49655630#new

And now having yours is another interesting occasion to watch,have been looking for this kind of thread for my own knowledge as i am planing to do same experience like this

Good Luck mate.

Cheers!!!

I also wish good luck to you and i hope you in fact manage to win something.

Are you going to do it only trying to predict results? No spin wheels or poker?

I just play on very small odds ,2-3 pairs per day and I love my strategy it work really often and I will use it always I am finnaly happy with my bet strategy ;)

This is interesting. I remember Joca starting something similar and it was exciting. You do need to mention how much bankroll you're starting with and what's your end goal is. Watching this thread regardless.

That sounds reasonable. Spending 20 dollars weekly is perhaps not a significant amount of money for the sake of the experiment. It's good that you don't hope to find a perfect strategy for long-term profits. And short-term you can indeed win by chance. At the same time, though, since we are talking about sports betting, not some dice or roulette, isn't it actually possible to become a professional and win most of the time? I thought sports bets were skill-based, because your knowledge of the game and its players seems to be useful to bring you closer to winning.

For those that has been following this thread please can you explain how far op has gone.  Was his betting plan successful?  I believe that some strategies work especially forex and cryptocurrencies betting as this is purely market analysis.

So far so good. Both tips passed very easy today. It was a bet of 0.003 BTC (50% of the bank). After first day winnings the bank is now on 0.0106125 BTC. I will update the OP later today as well. I will also probably delete this first day bets from the OP after the week ends. I should have posted in the separate posts.

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Sport bets are skill based but there is many factors you still don't have influence over. Let's just talk about football (soccer), how many times have you watched a game where favorite played much better and missed a lot of chances and then opposition scores a fluke and takes all the points? There is no way to take that sort of thing into analyses. The other thing is odds. The game is rigged in a way to make you take wrong bets. Only thing we can do is bet smartly and try to take some money back from them. That requires huge self control and cool head.


Bankroll is clearly mentioned, 0.006 BTC on weekly basis. Maybe I change that if I get exceptionally good run. My end goal is test some strategies while not loosing much money and have some fun. As I said this kind of betting is not professional and I don't believe in it for a long run. In fact I am fully expecting to lose money but gain some more insight in my own abilities as tipster and hopefully add another layer of self control. I consider both of those as essential when i start playing for higher stakes (bank of at least 1 BTC and hopefully 2). There has been few years since i gambled with that much of money and I wanted another reality check before committing to it.

In the past I always managed to end years with modest profit but I had to stop when our country added 10% taxes on all winnings (on top of 5% they take out from every stake). That ate up all the profits. It is impossible to bet with large amounts if somebody is taking 15% from you. Now I have another chance with BTC betting sites.


Actually you can look at it in different way. if you are betting 50% of the bank and adjusting bank after every day (which i plan on doing) you can never run out of the money. If you are constantly loosing you just have smaller and smaller stakes. But if that happens I will stop it and bet whole bank when amount gets too small.

Dont you think that gambling with all your Signature Campaign money is too much? It kind of sound like addiction to me lol.
In my opinion, it would've been better to concentrate on one game to increase you chances of winning and also help in your betting experience.

Day 2 - Week 1 bets

For today I decided to play following:

Sampdoria to win @ 1.5
FC Thun - Y.B.Bern both to score & over 2.5
Total odds: 2.626 | Stake 0.0056125 (little over 50% but wanted to eliminate extra decimals)

Sampdoria should have easy day at the office today against Frosinone. I am expecting this to pass with handicap and Quadriella (or how it is spelled) to score at least one goal.

Both Thun and Y.B.Bern like to play offensive football and I am expecting very high scoring game here. Maybe something like Dortmund yesterday.

I also wanted to include Milan to win in today's ticket. This game has same odds like Sampdoria one and I was deciding a long time which one to take. Hopefully made a good choice. In the end I picked Sampdoria because it is played earlier and closer to the time of my other pick. I like to group the games in this way when possible.

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@ big_daddy
Sorry man I blatantly stole table from first post in your thread. Had very little time and I liked the way it looked. Hope you don't mind  ;D If you do mind let me know and I will remove it and make something myself.

Its none of our business if he would use up his signature campaign earnings since its his money after all.  :)

Nice analysis! I might follow or tailed these bets if this one bet succeeds.

You stole nothing  :)
I'm happy that you liked the design

Week 1 - Day 3

I don't like the offer today but since this is mostly for testing purposes I will play the ticket anyway. I couldn't find any game I feel really good today so decided to play a bit higher odds with a little smaller stake. I choose them to keep the spirit of self imposed rules as much as possible.

Wawrinka - Paire over 23,5 @ 1.85
Both players don't have a constant (prone to mental breakdowns) and I see this as a match in 3 sets. Their h2h has a lot of matches in 3 sets and hopefully we will see another one today.

Wolves to win @ 1,90
Wolves are performing great this season and Newcastle is quite poor when traveling. Should be a win for home side

Total Stake: 0.002 | Total Odds: 3.515  

Good luck, buddy. I've seen your performance in the pools so I daresay you know how to make them picks! I've started my own system for about 3 months now, going on ambitious parlays or extreme underdog picks... mostly above 3.5x bets, usually much more.

It's definitely for fun, but I believe also in discipline if you really want results long term (I'm doing currently 1% or less of bankroll!).

Why not just back the picks you are confident in and where the odds are really good? I think 2-legged parlays at any rate should be at least above 3/1 to be "worth it". My favourite is to pick a game I feel the bookies underestimate and parlay it with a 1.2-1.5x "sure win". My problem is usually I like 3 or 4 legs and there's where I fail haha.

So I like your 3rd pick. Wolves should win this, but Newcastle might be the "smart" pick for 5/1 with new players (if they play!).


I think I followed that, couple of months or max 3 months back was it? $10 to $1000 challenge it was (x10). I think he lost $7 or 8 times before the challenge just stopped, putting everything down on 1.x odds doesn't make it for me.

Thank you for kind words.

Furthermore, I see the appeal of finding value bets and betting on underdogs. I will definitely try that for one week strategy. Maybe even next weak. I just have to find way to try to make it work with such small bank (self restricted for testing purposes).

No luck today. Paire had a breakout after loosing first set 7:6. I knew that it would end poorly after seeing the first set go to decider. Usually you want to see decider when betting over gems on match, but not in the case of "mentally unstable" players.

Can't wait to see your next CL picks ;) Don't worry about losing... strategies need a lot of time to see effectiveness (or lack of). So much variance in sports, too.

Of course, bookies generally know what they're doing (they have to, I guess with teams of statisticians and analysts haha), so you can lose money quickly if you keep going for impossible victories... that said, this season I've already had several decent wins... 1 big win affords me even >10 losing streaks! Newcastle beating City was 17/1. United drawing Burnley and parlaying 2 other expected 1.8/9 wins got me 28/1. It's not a strategy that can show results quickly though, and still needs discipline!

And I was ALMOST right about the value bet of Newcastle 5/1 too, but Wolves got their last-minute equaliser!

Week 1 - Day 4

We have come low enough that it doesen't make sense to split the bank anymore. I am betting whole bank on two CL games today.

Man UTD to win @ 2.4
Man UTD is in good form and PSG is missing several key players (Neymar, Cavani, Meunier). Man Utd simply has to win this. I see this game as open one with probable score of 3:1 for Man UTD. I am also playing this one for big fiat stake as 1x @ 1.4 but that isn't part of this topic/test. I also wanted to play both to score & over 2.5 goals but decided against. Should be great game, can't wait for it to start.

Roma - Porto under 4 goals @ 1.35
Porto is missing two key strikers and this is only first leg. I am expecting a low scoring encounter. Probably only a goal or two in this one.

Total Stake: 0.003 | Total Odds: 3.24  


@buwaytress
Now you know one of my picks for today and you can possibly guess the other  :o Best of luck in CL pool.

Bit of a bummer with the last two picks.

Does it matter what system you play with? In the end you have to pick
the winning side. Hopefully a system holds for something and your
picks turn to winners starting with UTD.

@Trofo: shame on the last game. I actually got both predictions right in our pool... though 2 others got exact scores, so they're smarter than even my wildest guess! Also won a Fenerbahce/Roma parlay at just over 5/1, but doesn't really mean much as I didn't take the extra risk last night.

Key players missing for PSG seemed only to give the backups time to shine but no one could foresee both Lingard and Martial injured before half time. I like Mata but he wasn't the right pick for this game, he couldn't contain the attacks and Sanchez just looked so lost. The goals in Rome all came in final 3rd too, totally missed all of them as I watched all the goals at Old Trafford.

I did not watch the game Manchester UTD - PSG, but it seems that was very sharp and nervous match from both sides because 11 yellow cards and 1 red card are given in this game. It is maybe easy to say now, but Man UTD clear win would not be my main pick, for reason PSG is on other side. But I admit that I would bet on both to score, or more then 2 goals on game - so I'd definitely lose.

Like I've already written, such strategies are not something that can be long-term favorable, and they end with 0.00 in bank in most cases. But one postive thing is that now new strategy can be tested.

I don't normally watch soccer but based on this thread I looked
in on the game a few times. I think the fact that PSG were missing
two big players in Neymar and Cavani missing it was worth a bet
on a MAN-UTD win.

I have read that Mbappe has scored 22 goals this season and is
more than Cavani or Neymar.

so time to move to a new system!

Obviously I underestimated the quality of PSG side quite badly. That 1X in fiat hurt me much more than this bet which was part of strategy testing. I'll give it a bit of thought and start with new strategy after I get money from sig campaign. Should be Friday I believe. If you guys have some ideas, which could work or be interesting with stake of only 0.006 BTC, let me know.

Oh yeah make sure to split your bets so you can bet a lot more times with the amount of money you are going to spend, that is definitely the best way to go to have fun yourself and possibly have more chances of winning. Since the more you do it the more possibilities of figuring out better strategies to try out in the future.

Do you mean bet with smaller amounts over a wider spread of games in
order to create a better average rather than as the OP was doing spliting
the pot in half and betting on 1 or 2 games?

i didnt know that gambling can also be diversify because at first i thought that diversifying funds was only possible for investing and on trading . the only problem is that the fee's you will spend will be double because most gambling sites are only built with single type of games , that is  why you need to deposit again your funds on other gambling websites .

What do you think about this bet today?

FC Viktoria Plzen - GNK Dinamo Zagreb
Draw No Bet - GNK Dinamo Zagreb
@1.81

I think Dinamo has good chance of getting positive result today. I will probably play x2 or dinamo to score. I always pick regular win or double chance. I don't have good reason for it but I just don't like to see draw no bet on my ticket ;D

good game yesterday it was
from 1 to 2 first/second half, it's something smelly here, maybe el Maminjo has some fingers in this jar  8) ;D

Quite possible. Maybe he needs more money for some lawyers wages. If you guys don't know what we are talking about here, don't worry it is local Croatian reference.

Week 2

This week I will play only single games with odds of at least 1.5. I will start with wagering 50% of the bank on every tip. If it goes well I will probably start putting 33% or 25%. Risk management is awful but I can't be bothered to place bet smaller then 0.003 BTC  ;D

RB Leipzig to win @1,7
Studgart is in big problems and RB Leipzig should have quite an easy match here. H2H is also very match in favor of the visitors.

Hoffenheim-Hannover  both to score @1,7
Maybe I should have played both to score and over 2.5 goals here but decided on a little safer bet. Hoffenheim is playing very attacking football and I expect result like 3:1 here. They also conceded goals in almost every match this season.

It is interesting to see that you are doing fine with your strategy.
Would you encourage other gamblers to try this out.
Hopefully it becomes something we coud copy someday?

I will follow you on this one adding Rijeka - Hajduk both to score @1.85 (edit: using price boost @1.91)
Both teams has weak defense and on todays adriatic derby will be a max offensive on both sides

Yesterday I had one good and one bad tip which resulted in a current bank of 0.0051

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Week 2 | Day 2

Valencia - Espanyol -> Valencia to win @ 1,8 | Stake 0.0026BTC
Valencia is playing much better in recent weeks and Espanyol is terrible in away games. This should be an easy win for home side.

Spal Ferara - Fiorentina -> Fiorentina to win @2,30 | Stake 0.0025BTC
This one is a little bit more risky but I expect Fiorentina to get all the points today. Usually I skip the early games because they are full of surprises. Let's hope this one will go as expected

I wanted also to play villareal - Sevilla -> draw but made that bet only in fiat so I am not showing it here

ok so you are playing a new system, 50:50 on two single games.
Todays result was a 50% win.

Valencia - 0 - Espanyol - 0
Spal Ferrara - 1 - Fiorentina - 4

Tomorrow needs to be 100% win - no pressure!!
Good Luck.

@Trofo have you tried betting on Asian handicap markets? Has been profitable for me in the past, only on single bets though and odds off 1.75 and above. I used to put an X amount in my 'betting bank' for every month and bet on Asian handicaps only.

I will play Asian handicaps sometimes but it is not something I am doing on daily basis.

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Week 2 | Day 3

After 50:50 results yesterday my bank is currently at 0.00575BTC. Today I will play two games on more goals and both to score

Chelsea - Man UTD -> Both to score and over 2,5 goals @ 2,1 | Stake 0.002875BTC
Chealsea got humiliated at hands of City and will try their best to show good face today. Man Utd lost badly against PSG and will also try to their best today. I am expecting an open game today.

Jong PSV - Twente Ensch. -> Both to score and over 2,5 goals @ 1,7 | Stake 0.002875BTC
This game is from Dutch 2nd league which is one of the leagues with most goals scored per match. H2h is also full of goals and I am expecting another goal fest today.

I will update first post a little later. Just came home from work  ;D

Both games ended with 2 goals scored for guests while home teams didn't managed to score. That ended this week experiment very quickly. Damn, it seems there is some kind of curse on me to miss all the games I write publicly  ;D

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No matter this is after all only experiment and I started with expectation to lose money so i could argue that things are going according to plan :)

On a more serious note. Next week I will try betting without restrictions. Based entirely on feeling. If I like one game it will be single. If I like more games, maybe I will play accumulator with 4 games. We'll see. I will probably bet whole bank on day one and if successful half of bank on later days.

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Edit:
I tried editing my OP while on the mobile phone and screwed things up rather badly. Is there some archive here on the forum from where I can get a copy of it? If affirmative please copy it here for me or send me via pm so I can recreate the OP. Any time before this post in last 2 days should be ok.

Week 3 | Day 1

Today I feel like playing Premier League treble for whole bank:

Newcastle 1x @ 1,3
This is very important game for both teams. I believe Newcastle has more quality in the side and they are playing at home. This should be a straight win but I am playing 1x for extra security

Totenham x2 @1,2
Spurs are much better side and great when traveling this season. Again I believe this should be a straight win but playing x2 for more security.

Bournemuth - Wolves 2+ @1,3
This should be encounter with quite a few goals in it. I am playing two or more goals as more secure choice but I belive this will end 2:2 or similar.

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Total Odds: 2.028 | Stake: 0.006BTC

Edit: Colored the post. And with this gameweek the Spurs are probably out of title contest. Not that they has a big chance. Everybody sort of expected them to start loosing points sooner or later.

Tottenham players were too nervous today, and selfish too
This is why they have lost their game, and unfortunately ruined your bet  :(

Meaning you make profits from gambling? What is this Asian handicap market for? Does it need skills or it pure gambling.? Could you please provide link.

@Ucy
Asian handicap means giving one team a sort of advantage at match start by the bookies. With asian handicap there are several outcomes of your bet. You can win the bet fully, you can win half, loss half, loss all or have your money returned to you.

There is a lot of information about asian handicaps, here is one resource you can check:
https://www.betshoot.com/asian-handicap-betting/

Asian handicaps are just a way to take your bets more easily. You can accomplish all that staff with bet managing in case your local bookie doesn't support them. Granted you will have to play few tickets instead of one if you want to get same result as 1/4 Asian handicap.

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I think I will have to stop with this experiment. It doesen't make sense but I have way more luck with pairs I didn't share with you guys. It is sort of cursed for me I guess. If I put it publicly I lose it. Today I played a nice double of under 2.5 goals on ManUtd-Lpool and Arsenal to win and both passed easily. There is no proof involved but for those of you playing Premier League Pool with me you can check my entered results and at least see that I expected that kind of results.

For those of you who are not part of the pool (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4479837.0) here on Bitcointalk, you guys don't know what you are missing. Make sure to be here next season :)
I hope we will have another one.

I see clearly that this theory is correct.

The house always makes you win on the first play thats why there is a phrase beginner's luck. After that, you keep comming back for more with the hope of winning again until you noticed that you just only win once. Too late if you are now bankrupt.

Beginner's luck can always appear to a new gambler even for the second time of playing gambling. And as long as he can follow the house in placing bets, he will have a chance to win in every time he gamble.

The house cannot always win, and so do you. It is about how we can search the right information that will support our prediction in the sports betting and you know what, you can win from the house in many times if you can collect better information than the house.

In the sports betting, who can get as much information will have a big chance to be the winner because he can make a right prediction from the statistic each team so he can decide to choose the right team.