Bitcoin Forum

recently we have seen a small preview of what the FOMO (fear of missing out) can look like in bitcoin market when the rise starts. we have also seen it many times when the reversals happen and generally whenever there is a rise.

so considering the current situation where most investors are scared, how big do you think the FOMO is going to be when the rises start?

In case we haven't found a bottom yet, it highly depends on whether or not we close below the 200 WMA. In case we do close below the 200 WMA, it's a clear indication that we're going through an entirely different bear market, and one that with a high probability will last a whole lot longer than many here might think.

On top of that, people seem to forget that we're dealing with so much algorithmic trading activity, that previous support levels will turn into resistance levels, and bots will respect these levels and sell whenever they can to secure profits, so whatever we end up doing, it might take years before we even see $20,000 again in the 'worst' case.

I'm happy with steady growth.

If I'm correct, you're asking what a what prixe would FOMO set in?
For me, it's above $5k, at this point, many investors would be scrambling to buy in and new investors would also be very interested. It would be a plus if it's a long term build up and not just a rapid spike.

The FOMO will happen in the six figure range... There will be plenty of criticism until we hit new highs and plenty more until the lambos find their way back to social media.

I think that in order to actually have people fomo in like what we have seen take place in 2017, there needs to be something that makes sure the price continues to increase month after month.

In 2017 it was really like $3000 is the top, I'll wait. Then $4000, $5000, $6000, and so forth. Eventually even the most conservative investors will fomo in. I do think that we'll be going through a similar phase again.

It's just a matter of time before the ICO market booms again and all the regulations that people think help reducing ICO scams will turn out to not help at all. Greed rules everything.

The only downside is another 2018/2019 crash....

Unlike the market FOMO will be found with each and every user. Maybe the large volume holders won't be having this. As an user stated more the growth happening with time more will be the FOMO prevailing among the users. Particularly this can be seen much with the users much focused on trading.

With these minimum limits, I do not expect there to be any concerns about any collapse, we have resistance levels at $ 3000 and not easy to fall below.
I'm expecting a period of stability with low levels of FOMO at the $ 3,000 barrier to $ 10,000, with fears growing at thresholds like 4000, 6000, 7500, 8000, 9000. The same will be repeated at levels of $ 1000 up to $ 19500.
The index will be at its highest level at the highs of $ 19500.

There's no such thing as FOMO in a bear market. Just bull traps, short squeezes, and relief rallies when sellers get exhausted.

Obviously there's still room for upside though. A visit or spike through the 200-day or 20-week MAs (currently ~ $5,300 and $4,700 respectively) would seem appropriate. Call it $5K.

Well, I will based on the average price that I witnessed during the bull cycle in 2017 and I would say it will be around $1k/day, I think this is just a conservative estimates though.

We really can't measure FOMO until such time that we're really in a bull run. But I would like to see is just a steady and slow growth, don't want to see massive spurts and then followed by eventual crash.

I didnt even know 200WMA was a thing, never seen it considered in pretty much any other market even when looking on decade long graphs.    However it does seem important to BTC and I would guess any test does involve an attempt to challenge or close below it.

Short term its hard to tell if a close below sticks or slips and we rise above again.   The smart thing is to highlight this area on a chart and be ready to change your mind once the market tests and decides either way.   I often make the mistake of failing to recognise a market testing a price only briefly before taking its longer term direction

I voted 6k because thats the proper resistance area, a break up would have that as a target presuming it was occurring with enough built up motion behind it

Maybe we already are in the midst of the most recent fomo trip, if we're being honest. Prices steadily eroded over the past weeks (coming down from a Jan high) and then people were worried below 3400 it was never going lower, so they fomo'd it to spike 8% as we've now seen. Just as we thought buyers were exhausted, we got a fresh wave of purchases. If that's the size of fomo though, bulls should be worried for the short term ;)

With the current scenarios prevailing in the market, we can infer that we are not in the era of FOMO. Rather we are being faced with FUD all around. The price is currently not stable nor rising, but they are being driven by forces of FUD until there is a good news which may contribute to the price rise. Investors and other prominent people in the crypto space still believe we haven't reached the bottom which might exist somewhere at $1000.

With the recent developments in ETF related proposals and the SEC commissioner Jay Clayton giving out a positive note favouring the approval of ETF, we might see a slight price rise in the upcoming days. But the size of FOMO will be based on the complete approval of ETF and the widespread usage of cryptocurrencies in all the fields. With the approval of ETF, I believe the price will reach not higher than $10,000. 2017 prices were based on FUD and speculation and the new price highs will be reached only during the widespread adoption. Only during this period we will be able to see how big the FOMO rises.

I think it is going to take most of us unaware as what really affect the next bull run is not what people are really looking at.  I believe that many traders are going to be left behind especially those micro traders.

Last time a bull market started, in oct/nov 2015, the price pumped from around $230 to $400. I don't think it'll be that big this time but if a similar spike happens to initiate the next bull run I could see it spiking from high 3000s to over 5000 before falling back to mid-to-high 4000s and then starting its long build upwards from there.

That's surprising. 200-period lookbacks are common in lots of conventional MA analysis. It's one of the standard long period MAs. For example, the 200-period is essential for finding "golden crosses" and "death crosses." (https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/121114/what-difference-between-golden-cross-and-death-cross-pattern.asp) I came up under a bunch of forex and commodity guys and the 200-week always came up in their long term analysis.

The largest daily candlestick I've seen is a $1,000 one. So, I assume it will be another one or three consecutive thousand-dollar candlesticks. Anyway it will be great since it will obviously signal an end to the bear market.

Well i'm sure it's not going to be like 2017. Fomo this time can only take us so far, probably in the 10k levels. People would already be anxious and wary about buying if the price is beyond that considering the number of people who got rekt the last time fomo struck.

The slow growth of the price I think is the path to go for crypto. Its much healthy than the sharp spikes. The slow growth though may take us years and year before we can get our to exceed that last ATH, I think this is going to shake up all those who bought at that price. They'd better just learn trading now than just holding,.

We have recently seen Bitcoin go up from 3,200$ to 4,200$ which is around a 1,000$ price increase during December 17-25 last year with this bear market but still it wasn't enough to make a reversal so obviously we might be looking for a price increase greater than 1,000$ to trigger a FOMO in the market. I must say that going back above the 6,000$ range would be enough to raise the attention back to the market again, going back up above where we consolidated last time would be a big turn around for Bitcoin.

I think that preparation for more serious move will begin when Bakkt  proposal will appear in CFTC comments section
Proposal has to be commented by people during one time period than CFTC will take decision
I think Bakkt  be approved. Bakkt is owned by NYSE so it is not easy to say no to NYSE

Democrats and Republicans have found agreement so will be no next shutdown
Fidelity is going to launch in March
So i think March and April can belong to bitcoin

Maybe around $8000-$10000 its quite really hard to reach all-time high like 2017, I think we can reach that target on 2019. Next years I think we can start to see the reaction of the market with the next halving bitcoin in 2020.

To see a real FOMO we need to get past 10k at least.
Till that point, there will be a lot more people breathing a sigh of relief than people going in.


Oh, if the FOMO starts happening in the 6 figure range and we take 100k as the minimum for that where do you think the madness will propel the price?
And that the price pumping till 100k will not trigger any FOMO?

I doubt that if we pass 40-50k people that never touched  BTC won't start again buying coins as it happened two years ago.

some people seem to have focused on the final result of the FOMO, i was not talking about that. the final result is of course going to be above $100k in my opinion after the next bubble shapes up.
what i was focusing on was the initial FOMO where newbies who have been waiting for low prices such as $2k and $1k,... realize their mistakes and start panic buying. in other words the first leg up after the rise began.

and that i believe is going to shoot ups to $5k initially.

If a proper "fomo" starts then it would be way more than any of this. If the price moves to 4k that is not fomo, that is a regular trading day for bitcoin, we have seen 4k so many times already and then went down so its not even a surprise to any of us anymore.

Maybe 6k could be considered "fomo" but its really not big enough for that. Fear of missing out only happens when the price goes high so much that people start to buy more because they see it going even higher and then buy so they don't "miss out", so you see the price first need to go up a bit before the FOMO period starts and 6k is barely the fomo level already so how could we say 6k will be the start of it. I think the main price point should be around 8-9 thousand just when FOMO starts and then much much higher when its ending.

Exactly. But fomos before and a coming fomo now would probably be very different from each other. 2018 took away a lot of confidence and considering that a lot of people lost money because of fomo, it's doubtful that they'll fall for it again.

as the price inches towards the resistance at $4k the Fear Of Missing Oout is also building up. specially among those who fell for the FUD and have been waiting for dumb low prices just because someone on the internet drew some lines on a chart for them.

i still think we are going to see an initial leg up to $5000 if we see some positive signals on the charts because of the starting FOMO of the newbies.

It's interesting. I've been expecting this type of FOMO as well, but haven't expected it to come this early.

It's hard to tell exactly how much the markets are going to go up to when the recovery actually happens. To me, there is a pretty big possibility that bitcoin will in fact see consistent double digit growth on a daily basis with occasional dips just as we saw with the last bull market. Especially with large institutions in the market now, I think that players are more ready to buy upon signals issued by some of these institutions, even though they may be completely unbased.

Personally, even though it seems like there has been a trend reversal, I don't believe that the bull market currently can be said to be confirmed. Also, I don't think that this type of growth from FOMO will be sustainable. There will come a time that the market does stop FOMO'ing, and that is going to affect those who buy into the hype.

Hype will only start after we cross old ATH at $20k. No one will care of Bitcoin before of that. This happened several times before. there will be no hype or fomo or whatever you want to call it before 2021.

The higher the price gets the higher the hype gets which is a bit good but also a bit bad. Now when price is at $4k it is hard to go to $5k, its hard to move higher because the hype is not there yet. When the price moves from $4k to $5k it is a bit easier to move to $6k for example.

However, if we take it even higher, when the price moves from $4k to $10k it is really easy to move from there to $20k because the hype is already there. So, when the hype starts it depends on how high we can get because higher we go higher we will continue. Of course, there is always a top that will stop and start to fall back but until that moment we just need to keep the hype going, mainstream media helps that a lot, if the price doubles it will certainly make news and more people will either join bitcoin or will return to bitcoin when they see it on TV.

At this time it is very easy to tear down that FOMO, it is the best area to buy Bitcoin, the Strong Hands know it, the news is often ignored by the strong hands but very popular by people who do not know much about market analysis, some think it can reach 20k, but what they do not know is that they can have a zone of lateralization and prepare new movements, at this time it is very good to invest, but for a speculator, he must wait for the movement to be able to react, that if he predicts he would be gambling.

I think that the FOMO can't be measured as a part of the bitcoin price.It can be measured in the quantity of BTC buy/sell orders for a sertain period of time.If there's a significant increase in btc buy orders for a period of 5 hours,the FOMO can be measured pretty easy.

And it seems it has died down even more abruptly.

You have to take into consideration that a lot of people are holding their coins and pray that they will at least come back to the prices they've bought, a lot will dump for 25-50% percent gain rather than risking and hold for god knows what period.

The last time in 2017 we didn't have any of those, all those that endured years of bear market since mtgox had months to dispose of their coins and take a hefty profit, right now we have thousands if not millions of coins that are waiting to be sold even for a tiny profit just to avoid taking a 66%-85% loss and a lot of traders now that.

I doubt any fomo will really be triggered unless below the 10-12k levels where we're going to a lot of dumping, a lot!

true but the people you are talking about are the day traders not the investors or holders and that is the reason why the rise didn't last long because at the moment there are a lot more day traders than there are any other type of investors.

FOMO has different stages and different levels. after the previous big bubble burst ended in 2015 the price was similar to today around $200ish and then the FOMO hit and it went up fast to $300 range which was nearly a 50% rise. that is the type of FOMO that i had in mind.
the other type that you are talking about is the final and the biggest FOMO where price went from $9000 to $20000 which is a much bigger rise (122%).

Fomo started in April 2017 after prices went over old Bitcoins ATH. Yes it slowly formed until thanksgiving when grandmas were shield to buy Bitcoin. That was the fomo and new fomo will nto start before price fo Bitcoin wil not reach $20k. Even when it will it will be tiny fomo but will grow stronger while the price will slowly grow. After $100k it will of course totally explode.

It depends on how the price reaches certain higher levels.

If it's gradual growth, people won't experience much of that fomo effect. It really gets into people's heads when we pump like 100-200% in a matter of a few months, just like what happened back in 2017. I'm certain that if we do hit $10,000 again, but through a process of gradual growth, people will then still hope for a bull run to initiate, because for them a bull run means insane returns in a very short period of time.

Again, it depends on how the price reaches these levels. Don't forget that there are so many resistance levels to pay attention to (and bots really do), that the jump from $10,000 to $20,000 might be a process tanking a full year. Only when we break the $20,000 all time high there are no resistance levels left and from there we might see a mad pump.

I think alot of the FOMO won't be the retail investors buying, but it will be the people who went short at $20K, $10K, or when $6K broke and they were expecting $1K BTC and they will be covering their positions with no Bitcoins left to buy on the order books.

Many are sitting at massive profit right now. Currently looking at the daily and weekly charts there is no indicator that says that we are out of the bear market, so they are sitting on their position. When the trend finally turns, that's when the FOMO short covering rally will start... if ever.

that is not FOMO my friend. that is simply rise or a rally. a FOMO or fear of missing out is happening when people irrationally buy some asset with such big enthusiasm that shoot its price up. you can call the last month of 2017 when price entered the 4 digits space a FOMO but not up until that point. we had a lot of solid reason for all the rise that happened to that point.

You'll be amazed by how many people have bought and their only thought is to leave the cryptos sitting there till they either get the same money back or it goes to zero. Most money din;t came from people that spend time on bcttalk or telegram channels, you have to realize there are a lot of other types of guys that bought in, not just traders or holders.

The guy that runs our only ATM around here told me that during the rush there was an elderly person who came in, had no idea how to buy, asked him for help at every stage and then he bought xrp (yeah!) worth 20 000 euros.  And this guy is dropping every month on the same day checking if the atm and the exchange team is still there and asking for the price. And I know a lot of stories like this, at least here most of the guys I know (yeah I admit there are only a few)  in RL are not really interested in cryptos unless they reach the price they've bought in.

This is no longer 2013 when most of the ones holding coins has at least a clue what this was about. we're seeing lots of new types of investors, and 2017 resembled more the 1929 pre-crash madness when housewives were buying and trading stocks.


Yeah, it depends what people think FOMO means.
I usually try to associate it with the early stage of the bubble burst since obviously it's not a healthy phenomenon for the markets and it will trigger prices that have no real backing.

THIS  (at least on the crossing the old ATH) .. Till we cross that old ATH, and are in uncharted territory, "Been There, Done That" will put a damper on any true FOMO hysteria.   To me FOMO means that folks have reached the "MUST BUY AT ANY PRICE !!!" 

So yeah.. I put the start of FOMO around $25k ...  after that, let the games begin....

Sigg