Bitcoin Forum

Looks like we are out of bear market!

Please check number of transactions for the Bitcoin. Very close to all time high.
If this is not proof of adoption for some people I don't know what adoption should be like.

https://twitter.com/vradovic/status/1104489493229264896

It is a useful statistic but we don't know if it's people dumping all their bitcoin to get out, or trading with various pairings. Price doesn't indicate that they are buyers but this chart will hopefully put them at ease to know that bitcoin is here to stay so they'd better invest quickly

Its a great numbers and we can really day that we already hit the bottom. People are preparing for the next halving, they don’t want to be left behind for sure. Though the price doesn’t that high, this kind of volume is still significant for the future trend. Buy more bitcoin now, this is the shout of everyone here better not to miss the train.

It is indeed not a proof of adoption, unless that new transactions comes from new users, or something similar. What we know so far is that those transactions comes exchanges, or traders who wanted to move their funds for whatever reason.

I'd say the number of transactions is a significant indicator of the potential value of the network, as use is associated with demand. Increased volume is also a potential sign of a market reversal. I don't know if we are out of the bear market right now, but if not we are probably close to it.

yes maybe it almost reaches the highest number of transactions. but the current situation is different from ATH yesterday. In 2017, many people made sending because they bought, but now they are different because they want to sell btc.

we have been out of the bear market ever since price started its reversal a couple of months ago. people fail to see it because they think end of a bear market should start with a big ass rise to the moon! but in reality end of a bear market is a trend transition which takes time and starts with accumulation.

they are nowhere near ATH because of the massive spam attack that we had in 2017 it has manipulated ATH so there is no way we can easily get there.
it is one of many proofs of adoption though. not the best one.

The amount of transactions is not really related to the condition of the market and does not show a real demand in bitcoin. As you see, the number of transactions is growing while the bitcoin price remains at the same level. In this situation, the only thing we can get is increased miner fees.

We have long been out of the bear market. It's just that most people have not understood this yet. I would say that now the price is stabilizing at the same level. The next will be the buildup of prices with subsequent growth

I honestly second that. The transactions just show that people is constantly using bitcoin but not merely say that people are investing to it. The numbers aren't enough to conclude that we're heading in bull run. Maybe it would be best if instead of waiting for bull run why don't we fill our bags so if bull run happens we will just drink our coffee while laying on our profit.

even as far back as 2010. they calculated using bitcoin as a cash payment meaning lean 1 in 2 out (1 out for destination, 1 out for change) would allow 7tx/s

this 7tx/s has been a known number for 9 years. it equates to 600k tx a day

even with all the "scaling" blah that devs pretend to have done over the last 9 years.. i dont think 285k tx a day is something to be excited about, especially 9 years later

bitcoin is 10 years old and still only 3.5tx/s

not allowing legacy transactions to surpass 1mb
hiding segwit data outside the 1mb to pretend byte per tx is lower when its just miscounted by wishy washy code and witness scale factor bull crap
and all the new features bloating the average tx size from ~250bytes to now being around 500bytes has not allowed more utility but less.
and whats coming next, deburden bitcoin of more utility so that people transact on other networks, thus less tx per day. thus ofcourse with pools eventually in years wanting more fee's will find they will charge users more per transaction.. further impeding bitcoin utility in favour of deburdening people away from bitcoin and instead populate and promoting other networks

I was just wondering does the fact that there was huge number of transcation mean that the bull run is over?
Well I feel this just help in the spread of bitcoin and it's adoption

looking at the chart
going back for years. there was a nice healthy smooth curve increase.. PRE SEGWIT

but dated august 1st 2017 was the LOWEST tx count of 2017 with under 140k tx a day
then the numbers went all over the place.
including when segwits bech32 tx format got added in spring 2018
tx counts sent from 300k down to ~200k a day

..
just imagine that smooth curve of early 2017 continuing if the whole segwit stuff didnt flap around. and instead there was just a steady increment of legacy blocksize

I hope that this is it,
This would be the start of the bull run let the bear sleep,
We have been waiting for a long time so I hope that this would be the great bull run that would take the crypto to the moon.

Number of transaction is one of the factor and also looks like we are out of bear market. Since 2020 is next halving the bull run may start from last quarter of 2019.

  To my opinion after a hike. of 2017 bitcoin and all cryptocurrencies reached to a bearish market that nobody has imagined the aftermath of the the bullish to a bearish market gave a negative effect towards the global system some companies have to be cut down their businesses and even have to shut down .their projects .But by now this year there have been a slight improvement and it seems to be stronger and recovering to a bullish market Since it has been ten years past Bitcoin has not reached to its potential as a store of value as a global currency .

High transaction volume does not normally indicate that a Bear market has ended. A few years back, high transaction volumes indicated that spam attacks were initiated. During the ATH in 2017 and a little prior to that, the spam attacks was also at a ATH to sabotage Bitcoin's progress and adoption and it nearly succeeded.  >:(

I am not saying that this sudden spike in the transaction volume is linked to new spam attacks, but it is not a guarantee that it is a start of a Bull market either.  ::)

Well I don't think that the number of transactions correlates to the BTC price because there can be many reasons as to why the transaction volume has been increased.
Many people have already stated the reasons of increase in transaction volume and the real reason can be any of them. The bear market has already gone though.
The bottom was near $3400 after which the price had started to increase. We are just holding the price now to near $3900 since we have a strong resistance at $4000.
If we break this resistance then the price will further go up to next resistance level and who knows before breaking that one we might face a small correction too.

While more transactions do not necessarily mean more adoption, but I'd like to make two points here. Firstly, it does mean that Bitcoin usage is growing, and it's unlikely that this is a bad thing. Money has to flow, people should be buying and selling, transferring it to one another regurarly. When there are barely any transactions, it means that we are stuck is a coma, while an increasing amount of transactions means at least some action which is good. Secondly, we could support this data with the following one, showing that the amount of new users of Bitcoin is on the bull run now. Here's a 30-day chart rom blockchain.info:
https://www.blockchain.com/en/charts/my-wallet-n-users?timespan=30days. Here's an all-time chart:
https://www.blockchain.com/en/charts/my-wallet-n-users?timespan=all.
As you can see, we are hitting ATH pretty much every day now, so the transactions probably come from new people joining the market.

Is there a link between bear market and transaction numbers? I don't think that's a valid statistic. Yes, there is an increase in transaction numbers during the bull market, but as I said, this is not a valid statistical data. A good guess, maybe ...

A huge number of transactions occurring in the network doesn't necessarily mean that the bear market is gone. Do know that after the top blow-off in 2018, similar volumes occurred due to a lot of people selling and wanting to get out of the catastrophe, and that was the start of a bear market continuing until now. Now, the recent volumes doesn't really translate to a reversal of the trend IMO, as we should see some movement by now, but we don't.

it takes more than an increase in transaction volume to spell the end of a bear market, and I'm afraid we still lack some of the metrics.

bitcoin transactions  have increased. this is good news. People are making bitcoin purchases, but I can't say that this is a bull beginning, because I'm not sure.. but if the price of bitcoin does not fall down again, and if continue to rise steadily, we will enter the bull market..

Bitcoin reached the ultimate bottom, hurray, the bear has ended. Wait, or maybe it's just a start of another sideways wave...

So yeah, it is a useful statistic but it doesn't really mean the danger is left behind. All it takes is a solid dump and then who knows where we end up. Probably in the same range again

The number of transactions is not at an all time high, the average transactions are in the same range as before and there is nothing special about the current levels, if you check the past few years, the average transactions per day are similar and i really do not see any major difference, anyone has a different opinion can speak up. I am not certain whether the bear market is over, but we can see the signs of recover from the market situation we have seen in the past week.

I think it would be better to say that we already reach the bottom since 2018 crash started instead of saying that the bear market is gone. It is good to see that the transaction per day is increasing but it is not enough to put a stop of the bearish market.

The raw number of transactions is a problematic metric, because it doesn't really tell you as much as you'd initially think it does.  

It's worth considering the significant impact of transaction batching (https://medium.com/@hasufly/an-analysis-of-batching-in-bitcoin-9bdf81a394e0) for starters.  One transaction can be used to transfer value to multiple recipients.  Prior to 2017, many Exchanges were pretty reckless in terms of not batching transactions and wasting available space.  Most have reformed their ways since then.  More people can receive payments using fewer transactions now.

Conversely, not every transaction is an actual transfer of value from one person to another.  Sometimes users are just moving funds from cold storage to a hot-wallet or vice-versa.  Some transactions are merely for other blockchains, altcoins and certain services to leverage Bitcoin's security for their own means.  Transactions like this are not indicative of any kind of economic benefit to Bitcoin.

If you're trying to use any of this information to read into market price swings, it starts to look pretty tenuous at best.

Nice analysis mate and you are right because if this is investing transactions for sure we can feel the growth on market but suddenly not so its more on dumping and not buying.hopefully the next high volume transactions will favor the market prices for good and not for dumping

Even we see that bitcoin transaction is very close to all time high we cannot say that we already survive in this long bear market,a high transaction of bitcoin this year is due to many holder withdraw their tokens or they transfer it into the other exchange that's why we cannot call it that we already escape in the Bear Market.

We could have high/low/average transaction numbers, it has nothing to do with we getting away from the bearish market.
Numerous transactions can mean a lot, even negatively, it could be dumpings happening which will further reduce the price.
We want high level of transactions, but it's no determining factor to end the bear market

We are nowhere close to the ATH in number of transactions. The peak was well above 450k and we barely reached 250k.

Besides, the situation has completely changed (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5119031.0) in the last few days and now we're close to experiencing the lowest number of transactions per day this year.

So, bottom line, judging by the same logic we're back in bear territory.  ;D


And sometimes even a normal payment that should theoretically be one tx is taking 3 or 4.
Yesterday I bought something from a store, my funds moved to the payment address, in the next block to another, in the 3rd a batch transactions with two more inputs, and again another batched transaction with 5 this time, and then the entire sum moved again to an address where they currently wait.

the number of transactions can't be used to determine whether the trend has changed or not. this is very irrelevant, because each transaction has a different purpose. it could be that those who send this bitcoin sell it.

The number of transactions is growing rapidly, but I think this is not the case for bitcoin growth, but I also believe that the bearish trend is behind us. As far as I know in London accepted bitcoin ETF and I think it should move the price up.

a transaction can also affect the market situation, traders will see all market transactions as a consideration for making decisions between buying and selling, in my opinion this is a real indicator

With batching and other things the numbers of txs is no longer a totally dependable metric.

As is pointed out here - https://twitter.com/coinmetrics/status/1104913875240128512

Veriblock's spam have been a huge percentage of transactions. That's now stopped. They'll be spamming again in a few days.

Transactions is not an accountant for adoption, I believe neither the number of addresses. To know if there is an adoption, I would count the number of stores that accept crypts as payment. That would say, basically, that people are interested in both customers and stores.

Of course it isn't because you can spam the network much like Bitmain did in 2017. Much of it can be fake like some people's instagram followers ;)

I feel like the bear market is over and we are in the sideways trading zone again like we were in Summer of last year. If we are to fall lower we'll need a rally first. I don't feel like we're going to drop below 3000 from here. A double bottom or a rally followed by a bottom is what my gut tells me.

Is that verifiable? Veriblock seems very obscure and I don't see any evidence presented showing they were accounting for "20-30% of BTC transactions." The only evidence CoinMetrics shows is transaction volumes dropped when their testnet was supposedly taken offline. I'll have you know I took a shit at the same time and my flush of the the toilet is what caused the drop in volume. There's just as much evidence supporting that theory.

I am more inclined with your concept of adoption as the number of transactions per day doesn't mean that many people are using it for their daily living. For all we know, most of them are whales doing their back and forth trading. More merchants, shops, stores, or whatever you call it are using crypto as means of payment, then for me, that is the real crypto adoption.

I'm not so sure this is correct, as if this were the cause, the daily volume would be rising in proportion to the TXs per day which doesn't seem like this is the case. I'm sure a small percentage is due to people dumping, but one thing you have to keep in mind is that most exchanges are using batching now. So even if people where sending coins from exchange to exchange to dump, this would have a very small impact on the daily tx count due to batching.

Daily TX/day increasing is a very bullish sign, this is what initially caused me to buy more bitcoin during 2015. TX per day was consistently rising, and now it appears to be recovering from the collapse in tx count from the 2017 bubble. I think it would be very wise to keep an eye on this metric. I have been doing this since 2015 and it has yet to lead me wrong... Now is the time to be accumulating ;)

Yes, moreover, transactions are spammed with 1 or 2 satoshis at all times. And, of course, this is not adoption.

The transactions can be done by the whales, so technically the volume can also be manipulated. I agree that a bullish trend will start to adoption and if we hear many businesses accept bitcoin then expect the price to pump. Well, we already touched the bottom, and now we are resting into middle level and preparing for another up trend. Actually, its hard to know if the transactions is mainly because of investors or manipulators.

This is really proof of adoption and it means the bearish market is almost over.  For those waiting to buy bitcoin below three thousand dollars,  you might wait till the next bearish trend again which may never come.

Exactly.  The rudimentary impression people seem to have is that 1 tx equals one transfer of value from person A to person B, but this is simply not the case in many situations.  It's not accurate.  Taking that inaccuracy and then using it to predict market movements simply isn't viable.  You've got a better chance of using transaction volume to predict tomorrow's weather.

I agree that all time high transactions are not a sign of adoption at all but it is definitely a sign of we are at least doing something positive.

It is important to keep our heads up during bad times and if a good positive news comes like this one for example that shows we have as much transactions as the all time high price times than we can't just say "its not enough" or "it doesn't mean adoption" or anything pessimistic like that.

That pessimistic approach is why we are here and as long as we take all the good news at face value and be happy about it than we can find our way towards going higher eventually. Any small tiny good news is still good news and maybe it doesn't mean we are going to be a million dollars tomorrow but as long as there are no bad news even no good news is fine.

No I think we're on a '' break, '' I believe more in a fair value for Bitcoin. No hyper, or anything, just the right price.

Nope, just basic event -> date linking that people here tend to do.

Every coin goes through these sort of sudden tx dumps that no one can explain. Ethereum had like 40-50% corrections in transaction volume more than once and no one gave a damn. Bitcoin on the other hand as big dog is what everyone focuses on as metric. It's understandable, but quite irrelevant.

The good thing here is that if there is organic growth, we'll see it increase the transaction count again. If not, we'll know it too. For now I'm more happy about the lower fees. :)

Actually, in this case, it's pretty simple to track them
Veriblock uses specific transactions (OP_RETURN) on the chain to insert data.

And here is how many of those appeared lately.
https://opreturn.org/op-return-per-month/

Hopefully this will remain constant in the next coming days, and the information given here will continue to create more opportunities. The positive side of story behind bear market was gone, cannot be a reliable statement which gave us confidence of selling our asset. We should still be careful of handling our emotions, as well as having patience towards random bear market spikes. Literally, previous years that's expected increase spikes but unfortunately it's a reverse scenario looking unto btc's spikes was a slight downfall of price.

Another important piece of information among all of this is that the transaction fee dropped as well. Now think about it when the transactions were at all time high during December 2017 there were a lot of people spending insane amount of money just to get their money sent.

I have literally seen people send 700 dollars to my account with 33 dollars transaction fee, that was the highest I have seen and that was legit because otherwise it would have taken so long to reach to me. Now in today's world we are almost at the same place yet people spend like 1-2 dollars at most for the same transaction which is amazing considering the high fee was one of the reason why we dropped.

We couldn't sustain the 20 thousand dollar times because people started to pay higher fee's than banks and that is literally against why bitcoin was created, now that we are back on track I think its not the reason why we will go back to 20 thousand dollars but at least its a reason why we will not drop from 20 thousand dollars next time around. Could be a different reason to drop but won't be fee's.

the growth is not just the number of transactions that bitcoin has. the real growth is all the real adoption that is happening all around the world. for example if you take a look at all the shops that are now accepting bitcoin compared to a year ago, or if you look at the number of new businesses that started on top of bitcoin you can see the real growth there. and that is what matters most.

Even though many businesses start accepting BTC as medium of payment, I don’t see it still pushing the price high to bull except fiat is completely scrapped because they are not accepting it to store it.

Once a merchant receives the BTC, there is tendency that the merchant will end up changing at least 80% of it back to fiat to be stored in normal traditional market and once a substantial amount of BTC is pulled from the market, it will generally affect the price increase even though I understand that mining will increase. This coin will eventually get stable to fulfill its purpose of creation soon.

But, since the trade generally begins to see that people are wanting to use Bitcoin, the tendency is that the purchase of Bitcoin increases. In the matter of the merchant it occurs that he needs only one person who accepts BTC as payment method so that he does not need to use fiat, a supplier for example. If several people accept BTC then good part of what they would use with fiat it could use BTC, but as we do not have this great acceptance the output is a hybrid Fiat / Btc

number of transaction cant exactly tell if bitcoin is growing or not . what if the transaction are only made up of small amounts ? same as adoption  . we can easily say that the adoption is growing but did the price also grow ? no . people only recognize bitcoin but they dont buy and hold a bitcoin  .

bear market is not gone and wont be gone   , no matter how the adoption rate or the number of transaction increases  because the bear market is already part of the crypto cycle  .

All I can see is that only about 5000 unconfirmed bitcoin transaction for now. https://www.blockchain.com/btc/unconfirmed-transactions

But more number of transactions coming from the traders who keep doing multiple trades to make money from it which is not real adoption.

I don't think that the all time high in the numbers of bitcoin transaction show that the bear market is over, but actually shows that there is a massive adoption in the use of bitcoin not just as a store of value anymore, but due to the introduction of segwit and low transaction fees, bitcoin are now used also for microtransaction which include the payment for coffee from a coffee store.

Though I agree with you that the bearish market is over and in the next few weeks, we are going to see a bull run in the price of bitcoin.

Number of transactions is not a good price or market indicator because it's not linked directly to the market. A transaction spam can make it look like the number is growing but it's not. Even if it was na natural growth it has nothing to do with trading volume and growth in volume is what we are waiting for not the number of transactions or google trends.

Right and it doesn't really have any positive effect on the price anyway. Though i think at the current state we're neither in the bear or bull market anymore. This sideway movement is better for slow growth, not the kind that happened last 2017 and not the kind of drop that happened last year as well.

number of transactions may not be a very good indicator without fault but it is showing a lot if you truly start analyzing things on the network. for example an increased in number of on-chain transactions alongside a volume increase on exchanges or off exchanges like for OTC trading is showing an increased interest of the investors and if it is accompanied by a price rise it can show the beginning of a rally.