Bitcoin Forum

in february there was a massive collapse in visitors on coinmarket cap (-15% now only 55 million viewers per month)

and Bitcointalk (-26.44%)

https://www.similarweb.com/website/bitcointalk.org#overview

now only 6.28 M people visit bitcointalk per month, another massive loss last month, last month alone almost half the amount of people left as there are currently still in.

this is usually a good indication for the success chances of bitcoin

regards

Where do you want to go with this post? how many people have many bitcoins and are not in bitcointalk and do not even spend all days in coinmarketcap? I see a lot of people. You can see this too, people like Barry Silbert for example are not here in bitcointalk he don not stay all day looking at the coinmarketcap

This people: 5 of the World's Top Bitcoin Millionaires (https://www.investopedia.com/articles/people/083016/who-are-top-5-bitcoin-millionaires.asp)

they are not in bitcointalk, it means that we can have a lot of adoption without needing to be in the forum bitcointalk

i doubt that, without a core founding community, bitcoin is just an empty ghost spread around by mindless american financial institutions. like berry silbert or worse the greedy winklevoss twins.

good luck with that trash, you are becoming nothing but a bunch of jokes

Maybe, just maybe, there are other bitcoin/cryptocurrency communities outside of bitcointalk.org. Ever heard of Reddit and Twitter? They're decent websites!

Hey there, that's you included. We're all a bunch of jokes here!

well then good luck hoping for alternative communities like reddit or whatever to continue your bitcoin instead of making their own bitcoin and becoming whales themselves instead of supporting bitcoin whales

doubt other communities are so stupid not to make themselves whales just like you did.

It's just a function of the hype cycle, and the subsequent crash followed by the price collapse. It's sad, but it's the harsh reality of an unregulated speculative asset. This level, believe it or not, is the baseline. At least it's a higher baseline than say 3 years ago.

The reason for the sudden breakdown may be anything and one of the possibility which I think is definitely high for users not visiting the bitcointalk forum is below.
As we know it has been a while now since the merit system has been implemented. Most of the campaigns launching these days require us to have earned some merit to participate in the campaign.
Many users (mostly spammers) were not able to rank up or earn any merit for obviously shitposting. Hence all of these spammers would have no option other than to leave the forum resulting in the decrease of visits to the forum. It's just one of a possibility among the many others.

Number of users on bitcointalk or coinmarketcap for you is an indicator of possible success or failure of bitcoin? The fact is that we are in bear market and that February or start of every year is usually the time when the people has the least interest for cryptocurrency.

Buying power is also very low in this time of the year, people usually spend a lot more money than should at the time of Christmas New Year holidays. Saying others they are stupid to be here, or support something is only show how smart you are. If bitcoin is for you only empty ghost spread, what are you doing here?

Well, it doesn't seem to reflect on the prices at least, I'm pretty happy with how the markets are looking these days.

Also, how accurate are these statistics? Aren't they just estimates?
Only Theymos can provide us with accurate visitor stats of Bitcointalk.

It's true that when you look at Google Trends, there's a decline in interest.
But you have to remember that interest was peaking back in late 2017, when we saw an ATH.

Interest was there AFTER prices went up, not before.

https://i.imgur.com/1vUd7Ff.png

Likewise! I am also seeing it as a good indicator. Probably the investor class people are slowly moving out of the market who had entered during late 2017. Because this class of people are the regular visitors of coinmarketcap for price and bitcoin talk for speculative activities.

Even though investors are important to the crypto economy, their presence usually increases the speculation which ultimately leads to a volatile market. So if this class of people leaves the market, the volatility should also decrease at a great extent!

It's almost as if a lot of people entering the market during the 2017 bull market / hype cycle have been only following cryptocurrencies for a quick buck, rather than actual interest.

So...


...pretty much this.



To be fair, Reddit's Bitcoin community has also largely stagnated compared to 2017. Its subscriber base grew by the thousands every week during 2017. Now it's been "stuck" at just a bit above 1 million for the last year. Which is still pretty good compared to the 100-200k of early 2017.


Still, there's nothing surprising about this recent decline in community activity. It wasn't much different during 2013 vs the crypto winter that followed. It's simply part of crypto's hype cycle.

We might as well include this indicator, sentiment analyst predicts Bitcoin price using Bitcointalk forum posts (https://zycrypto.com/sentiment-analyst-predicts-bitcoin-price-using-bitcointalk-forum-posts/)  ;D. So there's a lot of indicators to measure the success of failure of Bitcoin, that is if you believed such measurements are real gauge. But we have to understand that there are no single indicators right now, others are saying that trading volumes is good meter but it has flawed as well. So for me, this works in cycle, if Bitcoin price peaks, then obviously a lot of investors/speculators are going to visit coinmarketcap and even this community.

could you put a price chart over it, so we can see weather the search comes before or after the hype

As markets showed up the down trend by the month of February, people have lost the interest upon the cryptocurrency network. The same got indicated through the visitors to bitcointalk.org and coinmarketcap which were the key sources that give detailed information about things happening around with relation to cryptocurrencies.

Let's be honest, traffic on all bitcoin-related sites including Reddit subs has gone down and this is nothing new, it did so in 2014 and then skyrocket in 2017.


A lot of adoption based on a few guys that are not here on bitcointalk? Seriously?

Why can't people accept that the FOMO has died and interest has also gone down?
Bitcoin has always seen those cycles, it's nothing that should scare people or deter usage.

Let's not turn into cultist and try to deny everything negative that happens around bitcoin.


And it's kept alive more by the spammers trying to promote their yt channels and cypto "news" websites.
Discussions have died there also, posts with more than 20 comments are becoming scarce.

Coinmarketcap are the website that sends most users to Bitcointalk, so when Coinmarket cap loose 15% of its monthly visitors, it will also have an impact of the visitors of Bitcointalk.
Another interesting point from https://www.similarweb.com/website/bitcointalk.org#referrals was that docs.google.com has lost 30% of the visitors from bitcointalk, this means that the bounty campanis are continues there slow down.

https://i.imgur.com/2apqFDg.png

Currently, a lack of interest in cryptos could explain the situation. (But doesn't mean it won't come back) When you check the Google trend for "Bitcoin" It hasn't decreased or increased a lot since summer 2018. https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=Bitcoin
And a lack of interest means not much, we got periods like this one some years ago, I guess it comes and goes but it shouldn't stay too long

The bitcoin price has been / is in a long period of low volatility. The price has been moving in a sideways range for months. It’s natural that there are less vistors to bitcointalk.org & any other botcoin related websites really.

As soon as the price starts to rise significantly & bitcoin stories / news starts breaking in mainstream outlets again FOMO will kick in (as it always does) & interest from average joe’s will return.

Lots of us have been here & seen it all before.

I take that as a very positive indicator. The less speculators and the better. Less whining, less doom topics, less stupid questions about another pump and another moon.
At the early stages of a bear market there's always hundreds of topics saying it's not over we are going up in a matter of weeks, 500x profits next month. In the later stage it turns into an it's all over period: Fuck Bitcoin, I'm out of here, but they linger on. Now we are past that in the time where they really give up and leave.

Maybe the bottom is really in.

Very true, but seeing how abysmal r/bitcoin submissions have become it's no wonder that discussions have died down. And is it just me or is r/bitcoin in a worse shape than it was pre-2017? Maybe it's the rose-tinted glasses of nostalgia, but I remember much more focus on upcoming Bitcoin tech being discussed. Right now even the memes are r/comedycemetery material at best.

If I consider it strictly from my point of view, it's garbage!

It suffers from the same problem bitcointalk did, disguised spam to create subjects, bought upvotes and endless trolling.
Serious discussions had no place there neither did serious users.

But, there is one thing to consider.
When you are opening up a project that was created by enthusiasts to the world it's clear the quality will decrease, it happens with every forum in every domain.

For example one of my local forums (auto and service related), in order to keep it serious and a reliable source of information has a policy of stupid answer > 7 days ban, don't answer without a solution or a serious question to the OP.
We have thousands of active users but if you look at the average daily posts per user is well below 0.1.

You can't keep quality up by allowing everyone to talk whatever it goes through his head, or through the thing that prevents water from going down the neck.


 

It is a fact that the public lost a lot of interest in Bitcoin. If you read news sites and other forums the comments have greatly diminished as well. On the other hand, the number of enterprises that were created, new funds, and commercial and educational interest increased greatly.

I think this should be seen as a new phase. Where there had been scattered and hypothetical discussions before, we now have attempted at practical applications and preparation for the various uses that this new environment can provide.

My favorite newsletter about technology is from Ben Evans. He used to talk only with total disbelief about Bitcoin and during the BUM he reinforced the risks involved. Today, he comments as if it were something natural, he always has some news item related to some company or experiment of the sector. And the a16, investment fund that he works, has a sector completely involved in cryptocurrencies making big investments.

The public will come back... soon.

I only see data going back six months. You would probably find similar results in 2014 or 2015, when interest in Bitcoin was similarly waning. It may not say much about future trends.

I'm also not sure if these are the best metrics for general interest in cryptocurrencies. Social media has become increasingly important over time. I'm guessing the forum doesn't have quite the same influence it once had.

I do not predict that is a positive indication, after BTC fell dramatically from $ 20K, I doubt BTC will recover and create bullish quickly.

several times, BTC always creates pump charts but eventually, BTC only gives false volatility.

Isn't this the roots of bitcoin, a relatively unknown community with a relatively unknown goal? Bitcointalk and CMC viewership don't really matter that much if we are already gaining a lot of attention from the world on a different angle. There's still Reddit and Twitter to get their information from, alongside any other hubs of information discussing bitcoin for their questions so I don't think that the core foundation you're talking about would be destroyed by a decline of viewership from peers. This normally happens when something exciting isn't happening for crypto, say no crazy price increases etc.

Can't say I've noticed that the forum's gone quieter, I have generally been putting it down to stricter leveling requirements since last year.

I'd be really interested to know which websites or service actually gained more visitors during the same periods. Not talking about startup websites which launch in the same period, they always get a surge of new traffic. I know the slowdown is for content providers, marketing and PR, gambling, trading (exchanges).


I've only seen it the once, so I'm really looking forward to seeing it after having gone through one personal "crypto winter". Suits me just fine, really. For once, my news feeds aren't flooding me with crap. It's still mainly crap, but it's not in floods any longer;)

I would say ICO rating websites.
The amounts of morons believing those crappy scores and reviews is amazing.

I've seen a trend lately in a lot of scams that are avoiding places where the scam can be discussed and exposed and going strictly to the paid service of those sites. Seems like only the ones that can't afford it have stayed here, with the risks of getting tagged pretty fast.

Not a bad outcome...

If you wonder, why your projects have all failed: It might have something to do with your decisions based on the wrong use of indicators.

The drop in bitcointalk visitors is because the bounties are becoming increasingly useless with many not paying out, and the ones that do aren't worth anything. Hunters are giving up the game

why i am a bitcoin bear since more than a year, when i became a bitcoin bear bitcoin collapsed so why should i consider myself misguided?

its rather this community that is misguided

death of alt(shit)coins is inevitable.

it may take time, it may resist death, you may still see new ones pop up (like the ICOs these days) but the death is inevitable. what you see on both bitcointalk and coinmarketcap is the death of altcoins and mainly ICO scams.

throughout last year people slowly started catching up with reality and stopped handing over their money to ICO scams, so they started dying with their death the platforms hosting them (such as ethereum) also started their death. the effect is dumps, then investors leaving and then after a while in a slow process that took over a year the altcoin bag holders started dumping and going out. that means there is no newbie bag holder checking CMC to see how much he lost this day! all that death means they also visit bitcointalk less and on top of that the nonsense such as "bounty hunting" which is  a fancy word for "a newbie who spam-advertises for a scam ICO to get paid pennies" ended and so did the waves of newbies and alt accounts on bitcointalk.

Still I wonder what the "next big thing" is going to be.

In 2013 it was simple Bitcoin clones and centralized securities / mining contracts.

In 2017 it was spezialized / innovative alt coins, Bitcoin hard forks and ICOs.

Short of a complete and utter death of crypto 20xx should be interesting, if even more or less a variation of what we've already seen before.

I don't think alts will die that easily though. Even DOGE got pumped during the last hype cycle, regardless of it lacking active development and being little more than a meme. That's the beauty of crypto though. Easy to conceive, hard to kill. I doubt that this will hold true for abandoned ICO tokens though.

This is just a natural result with the winter kind of market in cryptocurrency right now. And the next question maybe is: Does it mean that Bitcoin and the whole cryptocurrency can be dead and has no chance of resurrection whatsoever? I bet that the answer can be NO. There will always be bumps and this is quite realistic especially in an open and generally unregulated market that we have right now. Ups and downs are always here...so nothing new with that. When the market is down people can get so negative that they might even be cursing this whole thing but just wait when the market is shifting into another direction and these same people can be shouting claps from the top of their rooftops...this is human nature, baby.

you will follow many altcoins, people will stop taking bitcoin serious, you (bitcoin, and the bitcoin founder controlled cryptocurrency index) will become a global joke

losing 1/3 of your community members last month should be an understanable omen to you

https://i.imgur.com/AL7TgIR.jpg

you can manipulate market price but you cant manipulate the visitor numbers especially the organic ones

Rather than hunters I blame more the drop on botfarms that were doing bounties, bumping topics, growing accounts, all that was reduced with the merit system and further (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5032314.msg45883277#msg45883277) with the 1merit/hr member rule.

People have uncovered hundred of bots accounts created in one session, I believe that a ratio of one real bounty hunter, 4 accounts, and 10 bots might be close to reality.


I'm losing hope of that ever happening.
I thought it will be over in 2013 when ridiculous things were born, it becomes worse in 2017.
In the next boom period, god help us what will happen, even if right now it's hard to imagine.

Cryptos never cease to amaze me, in both positive and negative ways.

That's a secondary effect of less general traffic and less interest in cryptocurrency investment during these times. I've actually noticed a recent uptick in BTC-paying campaigns launching, but interest in ICOs has been plunging for months and months. I'm sure that has a big effect on advertisers. I remember the altcoin market feeling this way ~ early 2015. It was a real doldrums.

I think that if the market always remained green, and the number of visits would be more.And since the market is practically standing still, many people are not interested in it.By and large, we have not lost anything. Speculators and amateurs are gone.

Could be the merit system which deter alot existing users or new users striking for ranks, as well as the shrinking market which result in unpredictable bounty earnings as well less insights post. As for coinmarketcap users might simply moved to another platform or any news agragator that does everything more comprehensive

Bitcointalk and Coinmarkcap are generally not a true reflection of the number of bitcoin investors or participants. I personally introduced some friends here to come read and make contributions, some got a ban, and they got angry for been ban even after paying fee to activate the account, some vow never to come back, but still they are heavy traders of crypto. Not everyone too visits coinmarketcap cap as there are alternative to this.

Yes, it is felt that less discussion topics and a smaller number of participants began to appear on this forum. Many bounty hunters have so far left the forum, for a long time or not - time will show. ICO projects are now experiencing a critical recession and it becomes unprofitable to participate in their few bounty campaigns, especially for those who value their time. I hope that the situation will change when the market starts to grow, and government or public bodies will begin to regulate the activities of ICO.

I checked thorough the bounty thread and going by the number of pages that hunters are posting their daily reports had dropped drastically validating your comment on the numbers of hunters that had left the forum.
In the past I usually counted up to 10 to 15 pages of daily posting of bounty hunters fully participating in the promotion of ICOs its quite unfortunate that bounty campaigns is no longer profitable again and most of the tokens are worthless having take a long time to get listed in an exchange.
I belief that when the market turn bullish then the golden old days of profitable bounty hunting will be restored.

its now actually in cryptomedia https://www.ccn.com/bitcointalk-lost-a-third-of-its-users-in-february/

i mean a usefull indicator for successfull predictions. (those could be of course also negative)

As fewer people start good ico projects less investors will sign up and fewer bounty hunter post messages. When the market goes back up, so will better ico projects and then hunters will return in hope for better layouts

Regarding bitcointalk visitors, quality over quantity, I remember when there were double digit pages on every thread in this Bitcoin discussion sub filled with shitposts. Nowadays, it's much better that.

nope there is the issue that the bitcoin club will diminish to a smal cult of "coiners" that insult all altcoins.

the shift is from how serious they are being taken

Doesn't make it any more factually accurate, though, does it.  The traffic is clearly closely monitored (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5120663.msg50162726#msg50162726).  I don't see any cause for alarm.

Btw, Theymos provided some accurate stats in a thread in the Meta section.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5120663


Source: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5120663.msg50162726#msg50162726

So the figures they've presented for Bitcointalk at least are inaccurate.

I do find it interesting how rarely Bitcointalk is referenced by other sites. All the dogshit crypto 'press' prefers Twitter, Reddit or some press release. Threads here are hardly ever picked up on by other users on Twitter or Reddit either. It's been that was for as long as I've been here.

One of the hallmarks of Bitcoin's ultimate success would be for here to slowly fade away until there's only a small hard core left. You don't see people flocking to Androidtalk.org. They just use it.

There'll be many more recent users, particularly alts, who've never been here. They'll go straight to Telegram or Discord or whatever they're called.

Yet for some reason prices are stbale and even growing. It's kinda bullish, shows how those who are willing to stay for a long period of time have enough $$$ to keep the train rollin  :D

IIRC in early 2013 reddit still occasionally referred to Bitcointalk threads. I guess it's been mostly overshadowed by the deluge of shovelware crypto blogs and crypto news sites that followed the 2013 bubble(s) though.

There is no relationship between bitcoin price and visitors on coinmarketcap or even bitcointalk forum, these are simply updates channel and discussion channel respectively.
While I've noticed the drastic reduction in active users here in the forum, I wouldn't actually call it a disadvantage, we could hence have some good discussions as well as reduce or do away with those who want to get rich immediately

put a statistic over both and we can discuss this claim.

there is 100% a correlation

and i am afraid that this forum indicates the future.

because there was first this forum and then there was a bitcoin price.

Their title sounds stupid and proves that most of the crypto related medias are charging an insane amount of money for ads while making low quality content.
The statement that BTT lost a third of its users does not come out of the recent view decrease. Previous numbers can be counted with bots, some others may really visit this forum less frequent but it doesn't mean that they quit it.

Look through this forum once again. Most part of users is talking absolute bullshit and demonstrating their lack of education (and sometimes stupidity). And it worked the same way in 2017 during the bull run.
Retards from this forum do not represent the entire community.

Agree on the guy above .  price does not affect the number of users in the forum or on the coinmarketcap , there is another reason on why the users decline because maybe they are busy especially on this quarter because they need to foccus on their studies in order for them to graduate  . some are also busy preparing for the summer , they travel out of town and that result for them to go offline for a longer time  .

Well another thing would be the number of spammers and new accounts obviously made just for bounties and campaigns. Some discussions have several irrelevant threads from btctalk users who are only trying to hit the number of posts required from them instead of posting replies that make sense.

Definitely true, even this place is the main community on where bitcoin supporters are in but not all people do able to find the path just necessarily
to visit up.So it means those numbers arent even accurate or doesnt prove anything.We might see big numbers but i doubt that majority of those visitors
arent bitcoin investors but rather they are earners.

you just lie yourself a bubble of reality together here in this forum you dont even care weather your assumptions are true, the climate is more important than whats going to happen.

without a growing big community you cant establish your "bitcoin" as world wide dominating currency, and make the bitcoin miner investment punks the kings of earth.

i dont even say explicitly how mad this idea is, in the first place. i keep you thinking you are sane, because if i would say something else i would get another one of my posts deleted.

Have you ever considered thinking why there was a core founding community for bitcoin :P, because they saw the potential in what was presented and the blockchain solved many issues that were presented earlier with double spending without a central trust agency, even satoshi never wanted exposure in the initial stages of the bitcoin core release as he knew that the project would be halted due to political or other reasons before patching everything.
I know several investors who have a huge amount of coins but they are not active here in this forum, some registered an account here but not active but that does not mean that they left bitcoin altogether.