Bitcoin Forum

Despite being down 80 percent from its all-time high, a fairly large number of investors are still cautious and shorting bitcoin in a low price range.

Bitcoin shorts achieved a 3-week high earlier this week, demonstrating a  lack of confidence of investors in the cryptocurrency market in the near-term performance of bitcoin.


https://www.ccn.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/chart-17.jpeg
1-Month Price Chart of Bitcoin (Source: Coinmarketcap.com)


But, according to a trader known to the cryptocurrency industry as “Galaxy,” bitcoin at $3,000 may be a rare opportunity that does not come again in the future.


Why $3,000 For Bitcoin is Rare

According to Galaxy, since its inception, bitcoin has established a trend of reaching a new all-time high, enduring a steep decline in price, initiating an accumulation, and recovering to a new high.

Based on that trend, the trader said that investors will likely never see Bitcoin at $3,000 once again after April and the dominant cryptocurrency is en route to recovering in 1 to 2 months.

He said:

    Although prices may appear to be random (to some), they actually create repeating patterns and trends.

    Observing this pattern makes April the last month of cheap BTC. And now, of course it will be cheap multiple times in the future, but never $3,000 cheap.

There are several traders and technical analyst who foresee bitcoin replicating its price movement in November wherein it experienced three months of stability and fell by nearly 50 percent in the following month.

    $BTC mirror world, times almost up ⌛️ pic.twitter.com/F8em6QQd7E

    — Moon Overlord (@MoonOverlord) March 14, 2019

If bitcoin fails to cleanly break into the $4,000 region and surpass key resistance levels at $4,200 and $4,300, analysts have said that a retest of lows at $3,300 and $3,122 is a possibility.


Reference: https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-is-cheap-until-april-well-never-see-price-at-3000-again-trader

Analysts and possibilities.  ::)

Following the trend lines, which do seem to support Bitcoin, it's only a matter of looking at the charts to figure out what's going to happen. This holds significance until it doesn't, which means that we have to close below the supportive trend lines, and then still, the 200WMA is creeping up higher and higher, which makes it less likely to retest $3150 unless it's a flash wick that gets bought up to keep the daily and weekly chart still look pretty.

Everything we see is indicative of more sideways actions. I doub't we're done with $3xxx prices, but even if so, if it turns out that we bottomed for sure, it's not a problem to buy 10-20% higher if it keeps going up from there.

it is closer to 85% than to $80% :)

being cautious means not doing anything and waiting for a signal or at least trading with a small window, shorting is the most dangerous thing anybody can do right now!

i'm sorry but i can't believe in this because price is stable! who is shorting something that doesn't even move?

no shit :D

it is not possible to come up with any patterns at this stage. price may start rising this week or next month or in a couple of months from now. the drop is even possible but only if something terrible happens out of the blue.

https://i.postimg.cc/XXMLJS8d/Screenshot-2.png

From December 2018 (date on which Bitcoin gradually losts value from ~$6k to ~$3,5k) to March 2019 the Bitcoin value has remained around $3,500 with small up and down here and there.
What I mean is Bitcoin is already cheap, for several months the price is around the same on average. Its value could be less than the $3,000 line. if a scenario like we got in Dec 2018 happens, it could bring the Bitcoin value to the $2,5k-$2k range

LOL, who is this Galaxy? But yeah, pretty much if you have been in cryptosphere since it's last peaked then obviously this is good accumulation period starting last November when it bottomed. I guess one reason though why casual investors are not entering or just wish to do short trading is that there's no significant news coming along. Just look at the price right now, struggling to break $4000, why? Maybe the bears is not yet done and not exhausted and will continue to short and book profits as long as they want. So it will be a slow grind for weeks or even in the next coming months. ;D

I'm still sticking to my guns. More lows for 2019, possibly even creaming off 3k and threatening 2k. After all, Bitcoin wouldn't "complete" the cycle without shedding 90% of its ATH, now would it? I was prepared to feel terrible and I suppose my expectations haven't been met yet. This isn't the capitulation I was readying myself for:P

I'm warm and fuzzy either way. Wonderful period for earning in Bitcoin, and every month we stay in the doldrums is another month I get to grow my BTC.

After this we don`t need to say anything more, this explains every possible prediction about bitcoin price. Even thou it`s explained many times, people still ask same questions, people still believe in everything they see, without thinking. Bottom line, don`t believe in any bitcoin price prediction, just relax and follow the market, have a plan for every possible scenario and don`t bother too much with a way to optimistic or pessimistic predictions.

As same as the Eliot wave chart on the BTC/USD the predictions have come to reality similar to that of the chart from the peak margin. Same as in the chart the market fell low closer to $3000, when the market indication shows around $4200 by that particular time period. Same as that once again a drop point is seen over the market in the upcoming days which is around the $3000 mark. In this regard I believe there will be price falls close to $3000 before a big pumping.

Yet another nobody. These publications are so desperate for content.

A few years ago, you had to prove yourself as an analyst for anyone to pay attention to your charts. Now all you have to do is buy a few followers on Twitter and make a provocative prediction like "BTC already hit the bottom!" or "BTC to $1,000!" and these trashy news sites will publish your analysis.

Anyone banking on the bottom being in already is assuming that on the basis of fractal analysis which is just about the least respected form of TA in existence. Most traders rightly view it like reading tea leaves.

The word “never” is something we actually cannot expect to happen even though we can retest the 3,000$ level now it doesn't mean that we won visit it for another time. The charts or any future possibility does not remove the fact that 3,000 $ is something we could visit even after a bull run happens. A lot of traders or known individuals in the past make bold statements before similar to what Galaxy said that it won't touch this certain levels anymore but every single one of them are wrong as the crypto market is really unpredictable especially when you looking at long term projections.

Hopefully, because bitcoin is down for so long but this is not guaranteed since many speculations that stating bitcoin will have its another dump before it finally go up. The market should be more active this time, we need to see bitcoin on top again but we have to wait for that.

I don't think anyone can provide a guarantee that the price of bitcoin can return to expensive if you don't support buying bitcoin, because you have to know to be able to make the increase in the price of bitcoin there must be someone who buys a lot of bitcoin.

When it's active people want it to be stable, and when it's stable people want it to be active. I think Bitcoin is doing fine where it is right now--everything is better than another major leg down.

People will only have appreciation for current "boring" price when it dumps 50%, just like what happened last year. The lack of activity was what people complained about, and here we are today....

I'm happy to accumulate some more coins at current levels, but I'm buying small chunks each time just in case we do get another leg down. I doubt it will drop much further, but you never know.

Basically the guy is just saying the obvious, at some point in the near future Bitcoin will rise out of the $3000s permanently. That is the start of the next bull run. I think April is a bit early, I'd say more like August, but yeah Bitcoin is cheap now and if you wait too long you'll miss the bottom which has already been going on for 4 months.

"gradually" for this particular price drop is the understatement of the year ;)

from $20k (the top of the bubble) down to $6k (bottom of the bubble burst) tool more than 7 months and that is 70% drop.
then we stayed there for more than 6 months building up a solid bottom.
the drop from $6k down to $3k (>50%) only took 12 days which is actually why i never considered it a real drop and i call this state we are in right now a "reverse bubble" (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5078452.0).

How about until March?

I like that analysis, seems like experts are now bullish with BTC and they believe BTC has already bottomed.
I'm very much excited seeing bitcoin pump again, granting that the analysis is correct, may I know what possible price will be the high this year?

God damn it but I have not seen this term before. Reverse bubble. Absolutely does not make sense (bubbles burst) but I can sort of imagine an inverse bubble, sort of like a contained implosion into a new dimension within space.

Yes, I can see myself using this inverse bubble term one day, in 2021 maybe when we're back to the normal bubble, maybe ask someone to do a nice graphic of the bubble and its inverse! A new kind of TA chart!

P.S. My life also has had a gradual pattern of decline... in the same way as Bitcoin sheds 50% value in a fortnight!

I agree that 3000 dollars is just way to little for bitcoin from now on. We have managed to make so many improvements on bitcoin and on crypto that if we could increase ever again we can sustain higher prices and that was the biggest trouble last time around, we did increased but that increase was unsustainable.

Bitcoin is "cheap" right now for sure but that doesn't mean it will go up right away, there is definitely difference between buying now and waiting 6 months until we make a decent profit and buying 6 months from now just before the increase and than make profit the next day. So all in all we know we are in a great price right and buying from this price is smart but we just don't know when the next increase will be so we are all either buying today or waiting until we are really close for that bull run and buying right before that moment.

I don't know whether this is logical for the market to do, because it certainly seems like that bitcoin has already bottomed. I don't think that in the near future we'll see anything lower than what the bottom has currently been established by, so these shorts could certainly result in a short squeeze in the short term.

Regarding this person's prediction about bitcoin being cheap until April, I wouldn't jump to conclusions about when the rally or breakout will happen. It might not even happen in this half of the year for all that we know.

All that we know at the moment is that there is relatively low probabilities the value of BTC will drop significantly in the short term. -75-80% seems to be the range where most bear markets that bitcoin has experienced have seen its floor, and we've already been through that phase. Unlike some others, I think that it is pretty much impossible for prices to drop below $2.5k at minimum, let alone go to three figures like some people fear it will.

I do agree with op view and for some of us that has be in this market for long we can easily agree with op that this is how bitcoin circle works.  If the next bull commence it must create another new high and after that full deeply again and rise high.

There is a basic principle that every market speculator must take into account, if the Market Makers want to bring the price of bitcoin at any price, they can do it whenever they want, the reason is because they have the money to do it.

 The fact that it will not fall back to $ 3,000 can occur, although I have studied the possibility that it could fall even to $ 2,800, I study the market based on Wyckoff's theory, and I can probably correct those prices.

 The reason why the bitcoin is now rising and then falling suddenly, is because they want to buy cheap, it is normal, always Strong Hands will buy cheap, never expensive, if they do expensive it is normal that they risk losing, and these people do not take those unnecessary risks.

It seems cool to me that you have managed to reach the conclusion that in April it will be the last chance, if that happens, you really have a different market vision and you see trading in another way, which is great.

This your analysis shows that trend does not come to play in the price movement of bitcoin or other Cryptocurrency, for the fact that it followed a particular trends from the past doesn’t mean the trend will repeat itself.

I also see BTC touching the price of $3k if many investors pull out there funds which I really doubt they are willing to do that now and since the price has already touched the bottom now, I expect many buy this period to sell. The high ratio of buy to sell will definitely keep BTC on the upward trend and not vice versa.

I also think this is the final bottom for bitcoin. I'm not saying we won't see a drop or a double bottom but it won't be something similar to that break below 5000 dollars followed by a panic selling. Bitcoin is looking strong especially now when stock prices are jumping up and down and wall street doom preachers are out predicting a big bear market.

Reverse bubble would be the reaction after a fall where its travelled too far without really trading those price ranges.    So I think of it as a kind of vacuum in the price, alot of movement but not alot of volume occurred there meaning its quite likely we find our way back to this area as its low resistance if you see what I mean

Where I'm thinking of this area right now is the window 4500 to 6000 where it fell quite rapidly.   As said above, the price otherwise has moved quite slowly since December.  I will add I think its been accumulating not really average or sideways but positive

I am also expecting same like OP. Because we can see trading volumes of bitcoin is increasing. Most likely investors are coming back into bitcoin. Also price seems upwards from last few weeks. Although still we can't say it bull market but overall conditions is positive. Sudden pump and dump both is not good sign but from last week's we can't see much sudden pump dump. So I am expecting slowly bitcoin will move up. Let's see what is going on...

Although, I believe that you would be changing your tune after the next halving, plus when Bitcoin is on its way to a 6 digit price. Will that finally convince you that "we'll never see $3,000 again"? 8)

Nothing is guaranteed... Everything is just a prediction.

It is for sure that bitcoin will rise again and will create a new ATH, but the question is when and how.
So far I don't see any concrete news or powerful activities from large entities which may lead bitcoin to its new ATH.

However, the bitcoin range from $3000-$4000 is best for accumulating as much as possible before the rocket launch to the moon imo.

I hope that we do not see $3,000 ;D

But the possibilities to see that number still there and we don't know if the price could increase higher in this year or not. They can say that the price will go down deeper in this year, but as long as we can analyze the price itself, I am sure that we could adjust ourselves with the situation and conditions.

April is a touchy month because you need to realise that April 15th is when taxes are due in the USA. Even though it was a bearish year, there are people who still made crazy profits.

So after the November dump, they basically were waiting for BTC to get a good rally so they can sell to pay their tax man. So this explains why every rally usually has a huge sell-off. This will most likely keep happening until early-mid April.

This is also the reason why the Futures are again at a discount on Bitmex and it has a negative funding period mostly, its due to hedgers.

yeah, unfortunately this rise to $4000 which keeps playing with it, has not been that strong so there is no rising signal which is partly why the investors are still not making a move to jump in and are instead waiting on the sidelines. this can be both a good and a bad thing because as the  rise starts they will start FOMO buying and that can cause a big spike.

That is what the person  you replied to is just trying to say, that BTC increase in value is in our hands, what is the bull run we are talking about, it is not a bug or a system that will be released into market, the bull run is as a result of our activities on that coin, though major part of it might come from someone with the purpose of making it happen for its benefit, but it can also happen without the input of whales through our supports for the system.

Let’s say we need 300 million dollars to be pumped into the market for BTC price to reach $150k, predicted by a whale that has that money at once might decide to do so at his own risk but if we have about 1 million people adopting the use of bitcoin this year with deposit of 300 dollars each, have we not pushed the market to bull run ourselves with our adoption?

Well i don't think it'll be as easy as before for people to jump into any fomos. People saw what the last hype did and what happened to those that got stuck when they fomo'd. Prepare for the long haul. Bitcoin may have bottomed out at 3.2k but it's going to be a long slow road to another ath

Despite the fact that whales are accumulating Bitcoin a lot these period, I don’t see them dumping anytime soon, many people are investing right now because this is the best stage for investment, the reason why we are not seeing sudden increase is because of the balancing coming through g buy and sell trade, the number of buy is not outweighing sell and vice versa, but once the number of buy outweighs sell which I see happening this year from prominent investors, we will definitely see a further increase in its price and not decrease.

I doubt it'll add much selling pressure this time. This isn't like Tax Day in 2018 where virtually the entire market was making insane gains until December 2017. There was no bubble this time. Anyone who made crazy profits in 2018 (which is very few people) already cashed them out a long time ago. If they actually held all their profits in crypto throughout 2018, then they lost all their profits and might even be in losses now. :D

You can see this supply dynamic in the charts too. Last year, we downtrended all of March up to Tax Day. This year, we've been uptrending all March.

Why would they dump now. They will need the price to go higher for them to be able to dump with profit. Now the real question is, then why aren't the whales buying more and pumping the price? Well they obviously are suffering from uncertainty.
We don't want all of a sudden rise in the market. Its better the current way. The slow and steady rise is what we actually want!

Let's hope we will not see 3000$ and there will be new uptrends in future. April is known with small upward impulses from the chart of Bitcoin but this is my subjective opinion regarding the matter.

We have a good price movement for one month now.
Although when BTC reached $4200 last month and dump at $3,800, but it has slowly recovered and bring us to $4,000 now.
The recovery is good since it's stable and this is what we are looking to be considered it as a healthy growth.

The charts have painted a pretty good picture for the past few weeks, and if it's telling us something, it's that we're in for some surprises in the coming months. Overall volume for the whole market has increased without any significant change in the price, which is still bound to $3600 - $4000. If anything, it tells me that people are already accumulating silently while letting the unknowing ones think that this is just normal fluctuation on the daily volumes.

of course even though it was the opinion of the trader known as the "galaxy" I did not hesitate to say "Yes" to what he mentioned, well sometimes we have to look at previous patterns have happened in the past and yes we also must to see various kinds of indications in the field. so by the way I concluded the same thing mate we would no longer see a price of between $3000

I feel like we are on the verge of something big as well, like I know it has been said for years now, ever since we started to fall from 20 thousand dollars everyone has been saying we will move up and it has been over a year and there is no upwards movement at all but I feel like we are very close.

Think about it there is almost 1 year left for the halving and people will buy way early so they can benefit from the increase of price, the price will increase for the next 1 year, they need to start early so they are not too late, who would want to buy from 18 to sell at 20, they want to buy from 4 and sell at 20, that's five times the profit. So all in all I think people will start to buy and continue buying until the price starts going up for real and we get closer to the halving, I don't know what will happen afterwards though.

I don't think bitcoin will fall to $3000 before April and the market is still strong to me and I did not see any lack of confidence on investors side.  I think bitcoin is trying to stay above $4000 since it fall below it in December 2018.

Obviously, Market was strong in this month so Bitcoin will move to forward slowly. Next month we will saw some big jump in Bitcoin so 5000 USD also possible but some dump also occur at anytime so keep support in crypto investment is only way. I think end of this year 10k USD also possible.

If they are really accumulating silently, don’t you think there should have been high demand which is supposed to actually have visible effect on the price of bitcoin as a result of increase in volume, because accumulating means they are storing it and not selling, so we should be seeing a much more less volatile market if they were really storing, what I feel is happening now is that investors are actually pending waiting to really see if the market has bottom yet, because a lot of people are still confused about the bottom and any sign of bull run, they will massively start gathering the coins.

Anything is possible, but 10k USD i think it is realistic because maybe bull trend that will come not big as like last bull trend. But next halving i think will really help for bitcoin price because it always happen like that.