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Title: Who and when will hit 10k merits??? Post by: cryptovigi on March 20, 2019, 12:28:07 AM Seeing how quickly the users from the top of the most merited ranking win merits by tens and even hundreds of each month, I thought to myself today: "In a moment these crazy people will reach ten thousand merits!" and then another thought appeared: "I wonder when it will happen and who will be the first of them?" I decided to check it, but how to do it relatively accurately? I decided that you can not do it exactly, you can of course calculate the average earned merits per day, but what period to take? From the beginning of the merit system introduction? Probably not a good comparison, because in the first weeks the merits flew like crazy, only later their distribution stabilized a little. On the other hand, a longer period would be better. Ok, so a year, from today, but what about the users who started their activity later than in March 2018, for example in July 2018 in October or maybe this year? So I decided to calculate 4 different averages and on their basis set 4 likely dates of reaching 10k merits by users from the most merited list. Everyone knows what his activity looks like and which average will be the best in his case. Anyone can choose: average from 1 year (2018-03-14 to 2019-03-13), average from six months (2018-09-14 to 2019-03-13), average from 3 months (2018-12-14 to 2019-03 -13) and average of 1 month - exactly 28 days because February is shorter (2019-02-14 to 2019-03-13) And here are the results I received (due to the limitations of characters in the post fit only the first 150 users from the list (full list here (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Yhw9yzhblpsx3fo8KmPGgvCLM1-1TgVHYRuHLgMgAKQ/edit?usp=sharing)) Of course, Theymos will be the one who will reach the fastest possibly already in September 2020 (if he maintains his best average for three months) but some of you have a chance to get there less than a year later ;-) I have a chance to get there between November 2027 (rather unlikely to keep my last month averege) and March 2054 (I'm not sure if I will have enough enthusiasm to make it) Of course, my predictions are just fun, I have not included hundreds of factors here (increase / decrease in the number of merits distributed over time, drop / increase in popularity of the forum, the appearance of new players or return of inactive, bullrun return, etc.)
Title: Re: Who and when will hit 10k merits??? Post by: crwth on March 20, 2019, 12:59:29 AM I'm just curious, what's the purpose of having 10K merits? Would there be a unique title something like "The Victorious Member" or like a badge? In the future I guess.
Title: Re: Who and when will hit 10k merits??? Post by: The Sceptical Chymist on March 20, 2019, 01:38:56 AM I'm just curious, what's the purpose of having 10K merits? Just bragging rights, I guess. It'll most likely be Theymos, depending on how much he posts. He gets showered with merits whenever he does post, but even still it would take quite a while to reach 10k. I'm about 25% there, but I got 1000 of those merits airdropped to me when Theymos rolled out the merit system last year (I'm stating this for those newbies who might not realize it). Earning merits isn't easy, nor is it consistent. I get them in spurts, often going a while without receiving any at all. I might reach 10k, but it would take years to do it. Title: Re: Who and when will hit 10k merits??? Post by: UserU on March 20, 2019, 01:51:38 AM It'll most likely be Theymos, depending on how much he posts. He gets showered with merits whenever he does post... If he were to post updates on the new forum, he'd definitely reach 10k sooner than we think. Title: Re: Who and when will hit 10k merits??? Post by: crwth on March 20, 2019, 01:58:43 AM I'm just curious, what's the purpose of having 10K merits? Just bragging rights, I guess. Title: Re: Who and when will hit 10k merits??? Post by: CryptopreneurBrainboss on March 20, 2019, 02:18:57 AM My pick is LoyceV, at some point theymos merit recieving ratio will slow down but for LoyceV don't think that will be happening anything soon. I just saw few weeks ago when he updated his personal text to " self-made Legendary (2x) "and yesterday after reading his reply to my post I notice he has received enough merit for Self-made full member rank and a potential snr member. His work rate and progress is just so inspiring.
Title: Re: Who and when will hit 10k merits??? Post by: tranthidung on March 20, 2019, 02:29:34 AM Update: CLUB OF ABOVE 2000 MERITS-EARNED
Source: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5115154.msg50184337#msg50184337 CLUB OF ABOVE 1000 MERITS-EARNED
Both @theymos and @LoyceV have earned more than 2000 merits, they are on top, but I think we should exclude @theymos from the list, that should focus on normal forum members, not admin. Next, @DdmrDdmr have moved fastly and has come very closely to the 2000-earned-merits threshold. They both earned around 2k merits (lower or higher a little bit around one year after merit system activated). Let assume the rate of earned-merits per year is 2k per year. If both @LoyceV and @DdmrDdmr will maintain both their dedication to make contributions for the forum, and keep their good rate to earn merits, they will hit that 10k earned-merits finish line in the next four years (might be sooner or later a little bit). For someone who hit that line, years from now (LOL), I think they should have a new badge, new name-calling/ rank, such as Myth. Title: Re: Who and when will hit 10k merits??? Post by: Hhampuz on March 20, 2019, 02:57:20 AM If Loyce keeps up with his constant work on guides, analysis & tools to see trust there's no doubt in my mind he'll get there. I won't count theymos as everyone is giving him merit regardless of what a post contains :D
Title: Re: Who and when will hit 10k merits??? Post by: libert19 on March 20, 2019, 04:29:03 AM I didn't even open the thread and knew that person would be theymos or loyceV. Unless they get inactive, this would be most likely the case.
Title: Re: Who and when will hit 10k merits??? Post by: hugeblack on March 20, 2019, 04:40:57 AM You forgot a crucial factor: people tend to give merits to classifications, calculations, and analysis, which means that "@LoyceV, @DdmrDdmr, and @Piggy" will get Merits faster than the rest of the users.
Also, @theymos gets a lot in each update so you should remove those merits from those users to be a more fair list. It seems I needed about 60 years to get 10,000 ::). @nullius will reach that number within two months. Title: Re: Who and when will hit 10k merits??? Post by: tbct_mt2 on March 20, 2019, 05:25:27 AM Those areas are the most favorite ones of sMerits.
You forgot a crucial factor: people tend to give merits to classifications, calculations, and analysis, which means that "@LoyceV, @DdmrDdmr, and @Piggy" will get Merits faster than the rest of the users. @nullius shed lights as a shooting star after merits appeared in the forum.He earned the highest number of merits than anyone else in the forum, except theymos, during those early days merits come to the forum. Unfortunately, he shut off around 11 months ago. Code: April 24, 2018, 11:02:30 PM Quote @nullius will reach that number within two months. It takes @DdmrDdmr 13 months to earn around 2000 merits, the merit-earned rate of @DdmrDdmr is about 154 merits per month.For @nullius, he earned 775 merits in total (BPIP (https://bpip.org/profile.aspx?p=nullius)), his rate is 259 merits per month (acitvely only three months after merit system started). If he has been active continuously till today, he would have earned 259* 13 (months) ~ = 3367. It means that if he been actively, and keep that pace, he will hit 10k merits in nearly 3 years, not two months ::) Title: Re: Who and when will hit 10k merits??? Post by: pandukelana2712 on March 20, 2019, 05:30:29 AM @The Pharmacist, you must prepare your April-mop (posts/events).
Maybe you can achieve Legendary 3x with it. :D Title: Re: Who and when will hit 10k merits??? Post by: cabalism13 on March 20, 2019, 05:43:57 AM Am I seeing those 4-digit numbers as years?:D
Buddy we're all dead by that time hahaha, Though even if we don't want to, we will be surely on the ground lying silently and Merits will stop coming to our accounts, In fact, no one will know here that the account holder is already dead not unless there is someone out here who knew about him/her. And also, bitcointalk is no longer running by that time, maybe we already have a third or fourth forum :D ( Merits will be gone I think by that time ) Title: Re: Who and when will hit 10k merits??? Post by: LoyceMobile on March 20, 2019, 05:46:50 AM Satoshi will hit 10k merit the day he returns and posts a signed message.
Title: Re: Who and when will hit 10k merits??? Post by: tbct_mt2 on March 20, 2019, 05:48:06 AM Satoshi will hit 10k merit the day he returns and posts a signed message. I like it. It will be a big event for whole crypto world.Satoshi's return, and his signed message with tons of bitcoin from genesis block that have not moved over years. Title: Re: Who and when will hit 10k merits??? Post by: UserU on March 20, 2019, 06:14:05 AM Satoshi will hit 10k merit the day he returns and posts a signed message. I'll dump all my sMerits on him if that happens hahaha. Title: Re: Who and when will hit 10k merits??? Post by: francoise on March 20, 2019, 06:44:08 AM I'm just curious, what's the purpose of having 10K merits? Would there be a unique title something like "The Victorious Member" or like a badge? In the future I guess. Lol, exactly, I will get there in the year 3872, but do I care? there are too many more important things in life than worrying about this artificial scarcity. Title: Re: Who and when will hit 10k merits??? Post by: tbct_mt2 on March 20, 2019, 07:40:51 AM Lol, exactly, I will get there in the year 3872, but do I care? there are too many more important things in life than worrying about this artificial scarcity. You even can not earn only one merit till now, so how do you can get that point?https://bpip.org/profile.aspx?p=francoise One lined posts are abundantly in more than 90 % of your posts, how do you get your fisrt merit? I agreed that you can get your first merit 3872 years from now, not your 10.000th merit. Title: Re: Who and when will hit 10k merits??? Post by: o_e_l_e_o on March 20, 2019, 09:31:44 AM Satoshi will hit 10k merit the day he returns and posts a signed message. Well, before his account is allowed to post again, he would have to contact theymos, prove it is him, and have theymos unlock the "satoshi" account, which would probably then lead to a post from theymos first stating that satoshi had returned before satoshi himself posted. So theymos might get the 6k he needed from that first before satoshi would.Or theymos could just make a new post right now stating the minimum requirement for displaying a signature is now 10 merit and every signature campaign which doesn't clamp down on spam will be banned, and he would get there in the next 24 hours. 4395-10-07 That made me chuckle. If bitcointalk is still going in 2000 years, I'll be mighty impressed. (LoyceV will obviously still be here due to the fact he is a sentient machine.)Title: Re: Who and when will hit 10k merits??? Post by: LFC_Bitcoin on March 20, 2019, 09:34:17 AM It’ll be theymos if he posts semi regularly. If theymos slows hos posting down it could be Llyce, nobody else will beat them to 10k Merit’s.
Title: Re: Who and when will hit 10k merits??? Post by: crwth on March 20, 2019, 09:40:58 AM Lol, exactly, I will get there in the year 3872, but do I care? there are too many more important things in life than worrying about this artificial scarcity. You would have probably died, all of us here at that year. Lol. No one asked if you cared. Merit comes naturally as long as your post makes sense.Title: Re: Who and when will hit 10k merits??? Post by: coinlocket$ on March 20, 2019, 10:08:02 AM Satoshi will hit 10k merit the day he returns and posts a signed message. If he/she has not returned on the occasion of the 10 years I don't think he will ever do it (if he/she is still alive). Title: Re: Who and when will hit 10k merits??? Post by: cryptovigi on March 20, 2019, 10:26:32 AM .. It seems I needed about 60 years to get 10,000 ::). ... Don't be so modest 20 - 50 years will be just enought ;) ...
Title: Re: Who and when will hit 10k merits??? Post by: LoyceV on March 20, 2019, 10:36:09 AM If theymos slows hos posting down it could be Llyce, nobody else will beat them to 10k Merit’s. If DdmrDdmr has enough time, he'll beat me to it. He's earned more than twice as much Merit per post, and he can easily go up faster than I can (see graph (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5099167.msg50184291#msg50184291)).Or more likely: at some point a new user like nullius joins, and quickly earns more Merit than any other user did. Title: Re: Who and when will hit 10k merits??? Post by: mdayonliner on March 20, 2019, 11:17:44 AM Quote 112 mdayonliner 2048-10-16 2080-07-13 2080-03-11 2167-02-27 2048-10-16 2167-02-27 Have you considered people to lose interest in the forum. Today the one is most active tomorrow he may not find time or lose motivation to spend time in here. Anyway, it's ok for fun. I was quite surprise to see my name though. Title: Re: Who and when will hit 10k merits??? Post by: cabalism13 on March 20, 2019, 02:35:19 PM ...which would probably then lead to a post from theymos first stating that satoshi had returned before satoshi himself posted. So theymos might get the 6k he needed from that first before satoshi would. Or theymos could just make a new post right now stating the minimum requirement for displaying a signature is now 10 merit and every signature campaign which doesn't clamp down on spam will be banned, and he would get there in the next 24 hours. Now, I smell some APRIL FOOLS THINGS, Thanks to your feed back, theymos might be getting some Ideas on what should he implement next April Fools. Title: Re: Who and when will hit 10k merits??? Post by: tbct_mt2 on March 20, 2019, 02:46:11 PM Nope, the next April Fool Joke we might see this year are (in my envision):
- Disable of all kind of signature campaign, including campaigns paid in BTC - Announcement that the forum will be shut down due to spam. - @theymos announce to leave the forum as @satoshi did years ago. - Demotions of Full Members, Senior Members, Hero Members, Legendary who can not earn single merit till that day. Last year, we had: - Karma - Politeness - Some more indicators that I don't remember. Title: Re: Who and when will hit 10k merits??? Post by: o_e_l_e_o on March 20, 2019, 03:05:37 PM Last year, we had: Politeness, fMerit, imagination, virtue, coins and karma.- Karma - Politeness - Some more indicators that I don't remember. Much more fun than comparing the individual scores, was the flood of posts on the announcement thread and new topics in Meta about people completely missing the joke and complaining about how hard it was going to be to rank up. I would guess the April's fool joke this year will have something to do with the trust system, given the recent major changes to it. Title: Re: Who and when will hit 10k merits??? Post by: stompix on March 20, 2019, 06:01:44 PM Since there is so much talk about April 1st, if theymos comes with a joke he will probably get another couple hundred merits for it changing a bit the minim date by a month or two.
There is a list (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4893744.msg44062249#msg44062249) of improvements to the forum, and if theymos starts rolling one at a time once a week or over a two week period only the topics will give him enough merit to reach 10000. And it will be pretty well-deserved merit also. Title: Re: Who and when will hit 10k merits??? Post by: tbct_mt2 on March 21, 2019, 01:39:46 AM Politeness, fMerit, imagination, virtue, coins and karma. thanks for additional indicators launched for the last year's April Fool Joke.I also remembered that there is one user who snapshotted the list of indicators that day below avatar, and still worn them till this year (forgot his account name, too). For the first one who can firstly hit 10k merits, I voted for @theymos, he will hit that point easily within only one day when he makes decision and announcement to lift up hammers on all auto banned accounts. So, who had auto-banned accounts, please log in your banned accounts, leave the message here and vote for my scenario, for @theymos, please. :P |
