Bitcoin Forum

...why are we not yet bubbling up again?  >:(

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940.3999999761581&m=bitstampUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=730&i=Daily&c=0&s=&e=&Prev=&Next=&t=O&b=&a1=EMA&m1=23&a2=EMA&m2=24&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=1&p=0&

If timing markets was that easy, why isn't everyone a millionaire already?

Also, why are you leaving out 2011 in your chart?

Unless bad news, it is not gonna take long IMO.

Cos maybe going by your fractal theory of Bitcoin price evolution we now have to experience another 90% drop as per Jun 2011 - Nov 2011 before Bitcoin can grow again. After we drop down to the $100 range, then the whole cycle is complete? This time around though it will be Nov-Jun, as opposed to Jun-Nov.

I'm pretty new on bitcoin but i'm gonna invest some money now, because it's good moment to do this now. For sure value will be higher in future.

We've been on a sideways/downhill path for more than 6 months before... are you really expecting a rally after every 3 months? If that was the case then everyone would be rich.  But there will always be scenarios for non-believers to drop out and for patience to be rewarded

Be patient guys, we all gonna be rich :)

this is why we're not bubbling up yet. still too many weak hands in the market...

Market cap of bitcoin makes it increasingly harder for pump and dumpers to pump it.

coz if you look at the graph you yourself provided, it takes at least 6 months between bubbling-ups, not 3 :)
which assumption should make June-August period interesting.

Back then there were still lunatics who thought Bitcoin could fail  :D

But that was the time between the last peaks. We should be on the rise already. Today was not a bad day actually. I just see that from the jag on the 25th of February we are already up almost 50%. OK, from tomorrow on we will officially switch to bubble mode, everybody join the ride and make sure to fasten your seat belts.

Too much money lost from the gox debacle, only weak hands remain. Big drop imminent.

Look at the gox disaster and there you have your reason for not another bubble.
Although I doubt we would have had one even without the gox bankruptcy.

[optimistic]A fractal price model could also support one final bubble before a major bear market if the summer 2012 rise is considered too insignificant (or whatever technical justification befits that) to count as a proper wave. [/optimistic]

Also, a lot are still digesting the news that Mark Karpeles manipulated the price to the last ATH, he also manipulated the subsequent downturn. How much interest is there in bitcoin really? We don't know yet. People are just being sensibly cautious.

There's a great theory on the rise of bitcoin and the fall of Gox here, it's the most accurate theory I've seen so far and explains a lot about price movements and the infamous Willy - if you are an investor in bitcoin you should read this....

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=497289.0

Looks like there is a feeble attempt to reverse trend. (that's an extremely bullish statement for me to express).

No big money going in, but no one ready to dump either = low volume. Interesting.

IMO Bitcoin is reaching a certain stability which is great for the currency but of course bad news for speculators.

With the recent bad news and weak environment, we should be happy bitcoin is stablising at $600.

Well, have a look at that low back in July 2013, we just had the same one 2-3 weeks ago, and after that bottom the price was sort of stagnant and it really started taking off only at the end of October, which still leaves 3 months from now to wait for the same outcome.

He is right.
june11 bubble to april13 bubble? 22 months
april13 to nov13 bubble? 7month

So this is easy math. 22/7 = 3, so the next bubble sould be 2-3 months after tha last bubble.

And the next in 3/3 1 month , after that 10 days... one day , and ... one every second?

exactly. These are the laws of "it happened one time, so likely it will happen another time"-predictions. Like the prediction, that we grew 3000% the last two years each, so it's like to grow that rate in this year again. Very solid!

Eventually the bubble-pop oscillation will reach such a high frequency it will inevitably result in stabilization of growth, but on a larger scale be part of a macrobubble, which eventually pops, rises, pops again, all faster and faster until equilibrium is once again attained, but only as part of yet another, larger bubble..

Everything is fractal. It is known. :o

*drops more acid*

You don't understand market capitalization ?

Even mBTC , uBTC or satoshi's can bring the market cap to top level hight's

You are not Just Another Sheep, JustAnotherSheep.  :)

It is possible to consider both rallies in 2013 part of the same "bubble" (remember, everyone was complaining that there was no true final capitulation even for the spring rally, and the fall rally was driven up artificially by China, which hasn't had a real capitulation either). In this case, there needs to be another 2011-like capitulation and another 22 month waiting period before the next bubble.

I could see this happening due to a chinese crackdown on exchanges, wwIII, or 750,000 coins being dumped.

what if chinese are satisfied with current regulation

what if wwIII doesn't happen

what if no one dumps all his coins all at once

what then!  :o

Opinions on the effect of war on the price of bitcoin seem to be polarized.  The purpose of war is to shake up power-structures and re-shape institutions, so my opinion is that it would reduce confidence in central-bank controlled money (ruble, hryvnia, euro, dollar), transferring perceived value to gold and, to a less extent, to bitcoin.

The effect of the 750,000 coins allegedly stollen from MtGox strongly depends on when the coins went missing.  My opinion is that they went missing in 2011 [https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=497289.0 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=497289.0)] and have already been absorbed by the market.  This would be bullish over the medium and long term, as a fraction of MtGox customers repurchase coins.  On the other hand, if the coins were stollen recently and will be slowly sold into the market, then this would be bearish for price.  

Also, another driver would be Bitstamp failing - this would be worse than any other exchange failing because Bitstamp is integrated with many important services for bitcoin commerce and bitcoin exchanges - it is like a hub.

If none of these things happen, then there will be no mega apocalyptic crash. Though I'm not sure exactly what will happen. Maybe it will continue to follow our bullish trendline. Maybe it'll trade sideways for 22 months.

On the other hand, if serious exchanges start opening in wall street then I expect another huge rally. That is why I am long currently, although I will sell on the right signals.