Bitcoin Forum

Every tradingview analyst are always right in hindsight. But is there someone you believe in based on past performance?

I used to follow some crypto guys that I thought were good. But then I found this guy:

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCc8IRYpgBr4NGbaQFnd2b-A

He doesn't do crypto, just forex and metals, but I trust his system much more. IMO it is way better than the usual BS preached and recycled by thousands of other self proclaimed experts out there.

P.S. He won't give you the exact system how to trade. Rather, he would encourage you do make your own trading system based on technical analysis by giving you the basic rules and principles.

Good question. Personally, I just look at tradingview and read the TA of traders. But I don't follow particular guy though, I don't know but I would rather do my own TA or at least learn how to create my own so that I won't have to blame someone if things doesn't went as it predicted.  ;D

So if you are not familiar with TA, then I suggest you dig more and try to learn it by yourself. Here is some cheat sheets for beginners, https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4846473.0.

Always do your own research. Never buy significant amounts of bitcoin based on what somebody else recommends/predicts. Bitcoin especially can be very volatile. I’ve seen loads of supposed experts be totally wrong about price movements.

Just be careful - Friendly advice.

I do not, especially because of how one TA 'influencer' can be a fantastic trader today, but a total sucker tomorrow. Another thing is that most of today's crypto TA people always have to sell you something....

If trading was really that profitable for them, they wouldn't waste their time live streaming their trading sessions and shilling their courses and signals. There is no shortage of them nowadays. So much quanity, so little quality.

not, but not just because majority of those who post TA online are full of themselves but mainly because i don't trust Technical Analysis and more importantly because i do believe that even through TA  can be a useful tool in the hands of a trader but in bitcoin market it won't work most of the times.

Didn't look at the video yet, but I agree with you about the dogma TA people tend to preach, and I'd say I'm way beyond being skeptical about technical analysis as a way to make money.

One of the things I've come to learn during my time investing in the stock market is that trying to predict future prices based on past activity is a fool's errand.  The people who've made the most money in the stock market aren't TA folks, they're the ones who use fundamental analysis and look for value in a company whose stock they're thinking of buying (think Warren Buffett).  I would say people like Jesse Livermore are the rare exception to that rule, though I'm sure there are others from more recent times.

On the other hand, with crypto there isn't much fundamental analysis you can do.  Cryptos aren't corporations with earnings and dividend-paying stocks; there's no mergers & acquisitions; there's no potential for corporate expansion.  The only thing anyone can do is read the news and stare at price charts--so it's not surprising that there are so many TA followers in crypto.  I just don't know of any who've made big money following their patterns.  I don't think it can be done, at least not in the long-term.  Momentum is one thing, but how are TA people making money now, when bitcoin has been stalled for many months?

Can't learn to trade without trial by fire and having been both in the red and in the black on margin.  Until both of those things have happened several times, you will always be crap.  It's not possible to learn risk management without ever having risked anything.

I follow a few analysts like Tim West and John Bollinger. When they post a trade idea or expect a breakout, it's usually worth paying attention, if only to temper your own biases.

Do I trust them? No, that's the wrong word. Beginners often think there is some foolproof method to trading, or analysts that are always correct. In reality, even the best traders are only correct 50-70% of the time and sometimes experience pretty painful drawdowns and losses.

Great point. I think they can't make money. TA can be useful in trending markets, but when the market is ranging, TA is pretty much useless. Also, the sad reality is that the vast majority of TA crypto traders are losing money because they have been taught to be reversal traders, rather than being trend-following traders.

I'm not sure about this, but I think that the TA indicators (taken over from forex and the other markets) are probably not so suitable for the present stage of the crypto market.

HairyMclairy ....

And yes there were Some genious Guys like master Luc etc but most of them are much more wrong as right last year

Only when the very obvious is happening Then they are right but.... many many TA Guys just stopped and deleted accounts probably cause they were always wrong lately.....

Also TA is not really the thing i believe in or really follow, but i like to see the bullish once but more for amusement
Though hairy has a very sober and good look on the BTC market IMHO and i like his post and charts very much....

But of-course whatever TA anyone draws.... i just stick with my very only 1
And that is the long term HODL and belief BTC Will succeed and on the march to there just buy/increase stash were and when possible

If my 1 one and only long term TA/thought succeed Then i’m the wizard :D :D

The chart tells you when the market is ranging too. You can trade the range (selling near the top and buying near the bottom) instead of waiting for trends to emerge. That's what the entire last year has mostly been.....boring range trading. On top of that, ranging conditions are safe for higher leverage, so traders use margin to squeeze more money out of smaller moves.

Today almost every crypto user count himself as TA. I do not believe to any of them. Well, I used to before and the final wasn't good. But whom to judge in that case, TA just said his opinion and it's up to you to follow it or not, in negative result the problem is only yours.

You can find more on the WO section here in the forum but don't expect too much. If I were you please take time to learn how to analyze so thay you wouldn't have to lean on others analysis. You can nurture it if you really are interested to become one.

People liked 'master Luc ' because he was super bullish and also very large and long term in his predictions which gives people some certainty.   In theory its easier to call a longer term trend over the needle moving up and down every day on every bit of flow and news.

I would recommend you google nictrades and another trader who previously covered crypto also (might still in private on request I guess) is alphatrends.   Both of twitter and youtube regularly without needing any special access but both daytraders.    They been around a decade and crypto is just one of the many currencies or graphs they cover, I find someone like that isnt trying to be nice about it just is going to call it the way it is most of the time

You can find those technical analyst or gurus anywhere giving out chart analysis on where would prices would go, either with Bitcoin and other alts as well.

Honestly speaking, I'm not really interested on following these guys yet I can make my own TA without the need of those people.Its much better to learn up for
yourself rather than tailing someones prediction.

Anyone who knows how to use the tools of TradingView can do technical analysis, but for technical analysis, the market must be understood, because no indicator can give us an idea of ​​what an operator or a whale is going to execute.

According to the book "A Random Walk by Wall Streeth." of Malkiel Burton, he made a matrix of data points that he collected from a group of children in a school, he enlarged his graph and showed it to a technical analyst, and immediately told him that the movement was coming up because that was a well-known pattern and it would happen, this was affirmed even without seeing the volume, clearly many technical analysts do not care about analyzing, they only follow patterns or drawings that are known.

If analyzed from another perspective I think they would have more success, in the same way, what they do is valid, each person interprets the market as they wish, but the important thing is to be successful. The only way to believe in a technical analyst is to show your balance, and to record at the time you have won making trade, and none will.

I personally preferred to follow the "Ian balina" because they earn more profit in quick time. He have great skills in crypto currency so they perfectly analyse the future possibilities and they visit most of the countries crypto meeting so I like this guy analysis.

he's made very impressive shorter term predictions too. he predicted the top in april 2013, the bottom in july 2013, and exited at the top in december 2013. he then forecasted the 2014-15 bear market with pretty remarkable precision. then of course there was his 2017 bubble prediction.

it's too bad his model fell apart in 2018. in a move i found out of character for him, he remained perma bullish for way too long. i think he's probably learned some humility over the past year after making several bad mid term predictions in a row.

You could always take into account the analysis which are out there, either on tradingview, in the youtube bitcoin community, or reddit.

However, my main rule of thumb is to never trust them blindly. You want to have information from multiple sources before you make the decision for yourself, because technical analysis can give off completely different signals depending on how the analysis is framed, and they might even be conflicting.

Don't just rely on one analyst, do your own research as well, and I'd actually recommend looking at how fundamentals are moving along as much as you'd look at technical, because that's what ultimately drives long term adoption and network growth.

There is a YouTuber that does high level technical analysis, it is Spanish speaking, its name is Aarón Luján, its understanding of the market is phenomenal, in fact it does live operations many times, it is very optimistic.

Use the Wyckoff philosophy and knowledge of many book authors, actually I think it's fabulous market vision, and I trust their technical analysis because it has been efficient, in fact, is of people who do not use indicators, and studies the long-term market, making fractals at 4h and 1h.

The technical analysis to fractals to lower temporalities, also gives information, but not so successful when it is done in the long term .. That is the vision that gives.

For the technical analysis of many, they like scalping and there are many youtubers that specialize with all the indicators, even though it is high risk, many are successful.

Well, I will not really say I trust him 100% but I can vouch for him a bit because he is a trading professional and will deliver a very good result, though I think his pricing is very high but I believe it is also worth it.

I am talking about tone vays who have been one of the major predictor of bitcoin price in time past and still an expert in predicting the crypto market even in this bearish time, I think you should book a session with him.

I don't believe on most TA online they mostly not telling you the exact analysis and no explanation that how does the price increase.

For me, I'm always gathering information from some website and some tools and honestly news and event's also has big help on predicting if what will happen from the asset in the future which actually proven. Only few TA guys are actually giving you the right path because most of them are influencer. So if you are planning to follow them make sure to follow them first and check if his analysis can make you the right prediction before you invest and follow his path.

well sometimes but depends only on the statement 'cause i didn't want actually to rely on others TA just to become updated on the market  time on time because i have my own work as well wherein just to make sure I'm following the real direction and also just to protect my portfolio.  In fact sometimes nowadays others TA didn't happen afterwards .So i cant trust on it 100%.much better to make my own TA also.

You should never rely solely on technical analysis when it comes to cryptocurrencies. This is just not sufficent.
TA can give you a hint about entry- and exit-points or the current market trends - nothing more.

Like other said before - do your own research.

TA's is much better than having some intuition based kind of order making.TA plus having some mix of fundamentals will most
likely be better rather than on focusing yourself into single analysis.I dont trust up any guys out there proclaiming precise or accurate
predictions when it comes to entries .

*Learn basic trading stuffs
*Understand the volatility
*Read other TA's especially with the crypto trading gurus and make it as reference
*Make your own analyzation our of that references

With these, we are building experience that will guide us on our future decision.

Remember that even how properly backed-up a certain analyzation is, it can be spoiled anytime. That's why it's good to have our own based on our own analyzations + insights + instincts that makes sense.

The issue with TA is that it is never close to 100% accurate, actually its probably hard to find any TA that is accurate maybe 25% of the time.

Most trading is still done with TA instead of Fundamentals but how do people make money then? The answer is risk/reward.

If you got a strategy where you only take trades where your risk/reward is 5x then you can make money with a TA method which is correct 25% of the time.

Problem with the retail market is that they usually have negative risk/reward. They basically want a TA method to be 100% correct and they basically risk $100 and take profit at $25 and a loss at $100. So with this method they would need to be correct 4x as much just to break-even which is not possible due to commissions and spreads.

So this is why some of the Tradingview authors and different stocktwits traders make money but the people who follow them can't.

There are too many analysts, and their opinion is often the opposite, so I am not inclined to trust anyone and rely on someone's forecasts. I always try to draw my own personal conclusions, and in this respect I trust only myself. And I think this saves me from unnecessary problems.

Apparently, I am too trusting or they trust those people, because all the forecasts that I took attention turned out to be false. Today, not only the cryptocurrency market, but also I am at the bottom with my assets.

We should only trust ourself and in fact that I do much prefer to lose money with my own strat because it wont really give me
any regrets inside compared on following someones signals which lead to lose will really give out some rage and stress upon you.
Just try to look at even famous people showing some TA analysis and the price goes into the opposite way.

I heard someone recently state a win ratio of 60% but thats something exceptional I guess, most are probably much closer to 50% if not below.   I think you are right on the trigger discipline required, to let winners run and cut losses.

My argument on TA is that its never trying to be deadly accurate, people want definites and there are none.  Its a form of probability study, statistical analysis which is a valid body of mathematical study not a get rich scheme but in fact applicable to every other science to add accuracy and arguably every subject can use stats.  Every post on this forum could be run through a readability test which is basically stats again applying rules attributing likelyhood to ease of comprehension

Dont think I scored well :|  but then its online post not a book

I always hoped that would be the tectonic shift in crypto - M&A, sadly it's definitely not like in the real world stock market where M&As move markets real good. I guess after all the hype of "hey we're building a crypto/blockchain project," there's a lineup of almost no utility platforms gunning for attention. Still, I'd rather do my own TA and bolster with as little fundamental there is, just to be safe. I discovered my instincts were always right on spot at least half the time, which is better than relying on some analyst to do a half-arsed job, after all it's speculation at best.

Yes there's but only from news site which is very legit for me. And i don't trust on any TA from other people especially if it has no specific theology because sometimes opposite always happened .so it's very risky and uncertainty which can cause huge losses .much better to stay connected on those legitimate site to assure safe and trustworthy.

It all depends on how that person trades. If we look back at Bitcoin's history or any other market in general, certain patterns tend to have a higher percentage potential to break out to the up or down side, and these type of break outs are what traders are waiting for.

Last year's descending triangle statistically had a higher percentage potential to break out to the down side, and it did. People shorting it just based on that did extremely well.

Currently we're doing the exact opposite with an ascending triangle, which statistically has a higher percentage potential to break out to the up side. I am already accumulating, but I'll try to put in a long just before it breaks out, and that's a trade based on a better overall probability.

Aside from my own performance, none because you should always trust yourself. If there is someone present to you their TA analysis, don’t just trust them easily you have to analyze it too. TA is easy to understand and learn better to do it now than to depend to anyone.