Bitcoin Forum

As what we see in the past 6 years. The price of bitcoin will increase this year and my estimate for the price will reach to 6,000 USD this November.And the reason behind is the booming of Lightning Network and the Lapps that base on LN.  

to reach such a low target as $6000 you don't need something as big as Lightning Network! $6k will be reached so much easier even without any kind of hype whatsoever.

besides the only way Lightning Network is going to contribute to price rise is if it starts being used in something big like by some exchanges or some big businesses,... in short we need it to be adopted. and so far although it has been growing so much lately i don't see that kind of adoption in it. and it is still in beta and kind of buggy.
and when that happens you can think about new ATH instead of a low price like $6k!!!

Price will grow when whales will be ready. Not when good news will appear. We are no longer in bull market where good news pumps x2. We are in bear market where average investor is to scared that its last year of bitcoin. No matter if with or without LN.

Slow down. Firstly we need to break 4k resistance and huge sell walls in 5200-6000 range.
Good news is that price didn't drop after CBOE delisting bitcoin futures news meas that there are no panic sellers anymore. Weak hands left their bitcoins after breaking 6k support.
https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2019/03/cboe-delists-bitcoin-good-or-bad-news/

We’re at the very end of the bear market, possibly beginning to transition into bull market. This is the accumulation phase, time to buy cheap coins.

$6,000 may take some time to be breached though, maybe the end of 2019.

Most of the time expectation never comes true so we are all accepting the current situation. But everyone said bear market was end and bull run will soon so we need solid proof of big jump in crypto market otherwise all are panic to participate in Bitcoin investment. I believe end of the year some big pump will occur in Bitcoin so we must buy more crypto is good decision.

Given the importance of bitcoin futures, this is not good or bad news, actually is completely insignificant and therefore does not affect on crypto market. As stated in the article this decision is very likely to have a connection with "growing lack of interest in Bitcoin", and "very low volatility".

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Lightning Network is great achievement for bitcoin, but probably it will pass a few more years before it becomes applicable to broad masses. We have SegWit for some time, and fact that it is not so complicated as LN, but still many users do not know what is it all about, shows us that things are developing pretty slowly. LN is just one thing, though very important, but can not change what most people are interested in, and that's the price.

Lol,it's 2019 not 2017. ;D All the hype regarding LN and it's large impact over the future bitcoin price is over.
A 6K USD bitcoin price after 7 months is a pretty conservative prediction.I'm expecting something around 10K.
So the applications that are based on LN are called Lapps.Damn,today I learned something new from a low quality forum post. ;D

People are so eager for price to go up again that they are thinking about all possible reasons, arguments and techiques and technologies that could help that happen. But Bitcoin market has its own rules that should be taken into account. Personaly I don't think that LN could influence the price significantly and besides it's not applicable widely.

we haven't been in a bear market for  some time now but the fear is still there in the market because last time the drop was unexpected and manipulated. otherwise we would have been rising already.
but i agree that with current market news like this can not change the trend.

I'm not sure the Lightning Network will (drastically or not) increase the price.
People will not bother reading about what LN brings to Bitcoin, they will not understand it and they will not feel concerned, like what happened with SegWit. (I am talking about people who aren't yet a crypto user) Also not everyone will want to use LN, whatever reason they have.

This does not prevent the price from reaching $6,000 as the OP expects and there is a good chance that this will happen, but it will happen without LN. Sure we will surely notice a boost from some days but nothing spectacular to expect.

Price will grow as usual due to the incoming events that like halving which is going to be months away by November. Though it will take place by May 2020, some would take it earlier than expected just to be prepared if market takes off.

$6,000 seems to be fine unlike the high predictions that we have heard lately.

We actually need more investors, the feature and the technology of bitcoin for now is enough for people to do transaction and without the lightning we can achieve 6k,the problems now lies in the adoption and investors, I don't see people ever complain again about the speed of the transaction, so I don't think the lightning network is one of the factor that could trigger bull market

It may seem fine, but it's questionable at the same time. The support level that kept the price above the $6000 mark for so long will form a massive resistance level keeping the price below $6000 for a long time.

It doesn't happen all that often in any market that such important resistance levels get broken through without a fundamental change to the asset or stock turning investors into bulls.

I remained conservative above $6000 and I still am at current levels. Bitcoin is a speculative asset class at the end of the day, and one that doesn't have a revenue or profit stream to use as measuring stick.

Perhaps it may not be LN that will be the main reason for a push, but some other things. I sense something is happening lately, with high volumes on certain exchanges plus there seems to be no definite movement as to where this market will go. The hype for LN has long been dead, and even the ETFs and futures are on the list of dead hype trends, too, so they are out of the equation as well. $6000 is a realistic estimate for an 8-month journey, though I expect something more, but then again it will depend on what event will spark such movement.

LN is a great technology and it certainly makes it so much better for people to send and receive money. Lets face it one of the biggest challenges during the 2017 peak time at 20 thousand dollars was people sending each other money like crazy and while everyone was buying and selling and all that they had to spend as much as 30 dollar sometimes for it.

I remember receiving 700 dollars for something and it was sent with 33 dollars transaction fee, that was unsustainable and of course the price eventually dropped. This does allow bitcoin to go up a lot more and quickly, I can't say "November" or "6 thousand dollars" because it makes it an objective result but I can say "sometime in the future" and "will  go up" because those two things are for sure in my mind, it will certainly happen.

OK. I'm all for Lighting Network and seriously, can't wait to find one of my regular merchants one day telling me they've gone LN. But if LN's had anything to do with price increases, then it hasn't had desired effect in the past year of adoption (which, btw, has really exceeded expectations). Not that I wouldn't welcome it, but I think BTC price has managed to overturn expectations... rising in the face of crisis and plunging at the height of payment tech development.

P.S. I don't think the 30-dollar fees was really about people sending bitcoin to each other like crazy. That was probably speculator transactions... trading, exchanges, altcoin exchange... but that's just my opinion.

Yeah，that`s why i said in November.

Well i think that we hit rock bottom at around 100b market cap (total crypto sector). So speculating a BTC price of 6k usd by November is a very realistic goal. To be honest i will be somewhat disaponted if it is only at 6k after 8 months...

Since Cobe does not share a big market. It is just a news nothing else. And yes we do not have anything to loose now, cause we already in the bottom.

I'm very intrigued to see how it pans out.

Outside a few enthusiast circles no one seems to pay much attention or have any understanding of it. The main LN thread on here is several months old and it's only about 20 pages still. I'm part of the furniture here and beyond the barest of ideas I couldn't explain it to someone properly.

I think its effect is going to be far more subtle than most expect. Unlike your average shitcoin there is no launch date, there is no weird baldie hyping it on stage. It's going to slowly sneak up.

At first glance it looks like a very low target for the end of the year, but considering the protracted bear market and the lack of activity in the market and reduced volatility, it could genuinely take that long to breach that range, although LN may not be the reason for that, the phase of growth is iminent and bitcoin can grow rapidly supported by the community

Let's be honest and admit that the price is determined by the whales and not by good or bad news, the lightning network or the next Bitcoin halving. If the whales say it will be time for 6,000 bucks the price will rise. The question is when the whales think the price is right. 6k will come again, the only question is when.  ;)

You're right about the whales, but I think that you are wrong about the halving. The halving has a good potential to trigger bigger changes in the market, maybe even an uptrend. That's actually one of the reasons 6k is a matter of "when".
On the other hand, I'm not convinced by the relationship between the price and LN and, even more, about the "November" time target.

So how do u think about the Lapps. U know the Dapps was boomed serval months ago. Will Lapps also give the world a shock?

totally agreed on this ,we had reached almost $20,000 without Lightning Network so what Reason might we have to doubt hitting $6,000 in normal market growth

Adoption is what we really need now most of everything since this hindered us to move to another stage of mainstreaming.so hopefully more exchanges and companies will use LN as a big contribution for the whole community here

Like the topic of this page, it just a kind of Speculation. From the bitcoin price chat history, November it a month that have more chance to have a higher price .

so far we have never seen any useful DApps and they were purely hyped up crap created for money grabbing which failed. i don't see how L.Apps can change that and since that "hype" is nearly dead now i don't see them having any meaningful effects on the price in the future either.
that is of course unless we see an actual change in this trend and magically start seeing useful ones which i doubt.

Yes, can't deny that it is still a speculative asset and price do fluctuate at whatever price that it will. As usual, if bitcoin turns back to $6,000 we are likely to see the same thing like what's happening with $3900 - $4kish.

There will be a resistance for sure and that will make people to predict another price level. But I'm more fond when bitcoin surprises us and the expectation of everybody is different on what its actually going to show by November time.

Some post their predictions with no "support" at all, some come with shiny graphs and analysis.
You come with some historic data, but at least you are honest: it's just speculation. I like that.
(Somehow I feel that this should written down more often, since many newbies or occasional readers may not know.)

Back on track: on history-based forecasts I tend to agree, November was - sometimes - a good month. On the other hand February-March used to be bad (Chinese New Year, Tax..) and this year it was not worse than the (already bad) average. So history may be deceiving too. I hope you are right and we'll be at 6k+ by November, though.

Yeah, u can not actually predict what will happen in the future, even with the best analyst 、charts.
I am a Chinese and I love the philosophy of < Tao Te Ching>. In the DAO, things will change when it comes to an extreme point. And everything has its rhythm.

Well, Bitcoin price can easily reach $6k by November. With LN or without.  Value of LN I see is that at next hype when number of transactions spike fees will be much lover than without LN.

every time I read a sad speculation like this from someone predicting such a small rise for this year, I feel right back in 2015 where price was stuck at $220 for a very long time and people were coming up with the same exact  sad speculations about the price and how it would only have a small rise for the same weird reasons. all of them are missing one important thing. and that is the fact that bitcoin price has always been rising because of bitcoin adoption and that process is slow but is happening at all times. but sometimes (like now) price remains stable because of lack of confidence and some manipulations. it just needs to start rising for all that to come back and we see the same big rises again.
the rest as they say is history...

Or, just history repeating itself. But I totally agree with your sentiments, the same prediction but with different set of people now. They really haven't seen Bitcoin goes on a painful grid everyday in 2015 when the price was stagnant, but eventually it did rise and slow and then the dramatic spike that ended up in 2017. So at some point in the future we will see that rapid increase again, investors, speculators and even noobs pumping fresh blood just like we have seen in 2017.

Not a sure thing yet LN do still have some issues and not fully adopted but somehow we are seeing that it is gradually being used on gambling platforms
as of this moment which is good.

About on the price prediction in November, i do see these numbers to be realistic compared to others exaggerated speculations.

This is the reason why Bitcoin crashed so hard last November. Basically everybody assumed that "November" and "December" are usually bullish months and they went all out and overleveraged themselves and this is what caused that massive crash.

Right now we can only hope that $4200 area gets engulfed and we close above it on the weekly candle and then we hope that it won't crash under it. If we get this, then this will be the first time since the ATH since we get a weekly close above a previous pivot.

All these predictions are all guesses in my opinion and they should all be taken with a grain of salt.

What, with our sample size of 10 years? LOL, that assumption was bound to fail. 2011 and 2014 are two prime examples where that bet failed too. And no surprise, those came after a huge bubble just like 2017.


I'll still be approaching it with caution even if we do get a weekly close above. With how slow this market moves now, I think a resolution like November 2014 would still be possible.

OP, no. Haha.

But I believe the halving will, if it follows Bitcoin's historic price trends. From the past halvings, Bitcoin started to rise gradual one year before the next halving.

Expect a high probability that that "rise" might start on May.

Bitcoin has a community all over the world. It seems the will of all BTC community members become more and more strong than before. If all of them think it shall be like that, it will be like that. It`s even like a religion.

Its coming.

with the way people have been focusing on the next halving (which will be the third one) for more than a year now, i wouldn't be surprised if we saw the new ATH be reached by then instead of after the halving like last time.
specially when you consider the fact that the first halving causes a big rise, then by the time second one was happening people were skeptical about such rises but it happened bigger. this time that skepticism is smaller and the hype is so much bigger.

the thing i am not sure about is whether this is a terrible thing for bitcoin or not?

That's probable. The same with how the people have been focusing on Bitcoin's capitulation to "crash below $3,000, and then a sudden rally", a few months ago which never happened.

The people might have become much smarter. 8)


It's neither, it's the way of the market. HODL.

I love the technology behind the lightning network in the bitcoin node through a lot of persons are against it because they see it as a way of centralizing the bitcoin blockchain which is against satoshi initial plan for bitcoin and crypto as a whole, but since we don't have a better method of solving the problem of scalability in the blockchain, then I think we have no choice than to accept lightning network until we can come up with something better to enable microtransactions on the blockchain and everyone making use of bitcoin can carry out transactions freely.

i never expected a capitulation event a few months ago, not until after a significant upside correction first. i still think a capitulation event is possible too. it takes many months to form a market bottom. i wouldn't declare victory yet just because bitcoin went sideways for 3 months. we had a long sideways like this at $6k too. ;)

i still like the "sideways 2019" scenario but i'm nervous at how bullish everyone is getting. 3 months since the bottom, we've only recovered $900 and y'all are already predicting new ATHs next year. people are usually a lot more pessimistic at the beginning of bull markets.....

It takes time meet the 6k price because bearish market maybe if many investor will go again in bitcoin there's possible that bitcoin will reach 6k price but of course no one knows when it this happen.

Check this out：https://blog.bitmex.com/the-lightning-network-part-2-routing-fee-economics/
I think Lighting Network will booming in the end of this year.

Then as long as you believe that, there are other people who have adjusted, and will react on the market differently than the "expected" sell because of capitulation. They might be ready to buy because of that expectation, which would then cause "capitulation" to not happen.

And speaking of Lightning Network's adoption:

https://blog.zebpay.com/zebpay-launches-lightning-network-payments-44cfaad0b1c7


So day-by-day, a lot of companies, merchants are really using LN and taking advantage of it. You can even go to Youtube and search and you will see the countries who's friendly to bitcoin are adopting it.

And just maybe we can realized that $6k in November, who knows.

Oh it will be so much fun watching you compete with Tom Lee.

leaving jokes aside, your prediction is not so difficult to come true and that's because the price is at $4100 now and it takes many months to arrive in November, but still I'm still skeptical about seeing the price of $ 6000 still this year. it may be that the price is stagnant in this area of $4000 for many months and we arrive the next year while the price still continues in the  $4000

‘The Main Use For Bitcoin Today is as Digital Gold’: Claims Economists (https://coingape.com/bitcoin-digital-gold-economist/)

it is a good article


Hmmm... I do not think the price would rise for this reason

Bitcoin is the gold but a gold that can easily spend in everywhere with the help of Lightning Network.

You mean digital gold?

Of course, adoption is really going. Everyone wanted to get a hold of this so-called digital gold. And just like any assets, it has problems and LN is the much anticipated solution to it.

We are still the bearish trend, sad to day and it will take months to be able to recovery. It might be that LN could be considered by others as catalyst, but it needs more growth, more adoption in order to help the price to reach $6k. But I guess, if there is growth around the corner, there could be other factors as well that can contribute, not just LN.

Do not mix what could make bitcoin stay up and what could make bitcoin go up. If bitcoin one day reaches 6 thousand dollars which we all know eventually it will, lightning network is the type of thing that could keep it there and help it not go back down, but it is certainly not something that will take bitcoin to 6 thousand dollars. There is a clear distinction between helping not fall and helping go up.

Bitcoin needs new money coming in and lightning network is not the type of thing that will get us new money, we need media and news that will air on everywhere that will attract the new money, with news and media (specially TV because we are already everywhere in online world) and maybe even SEC-ETF thing we could potentially get a lot of money in but until than lightning network is just insurance for us.

It seems to me that by November the price of bitcoin should be much higher than $ 6,000, I can of course be mistaken, since my opinion is based mainly on my intuition, but it seems to me that by the month of November bitcoin can cost much more than $ 6,000. Perhaps even more than 10,000.

Guys，the price hit 5,000 USD today。。。。