Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: Als Pawnshop on November 08, 2011, 02:07:58 PM



Title: Where are the arbiters?
Post by: Als Pawnshop on November 08, 2011, 02:07:58 PM
Come on people there are like 10K cheap cheap BTC for sale on Tradehill. Is anyone going to buy them up?

There's a nice profit opportunity right now. Is it really that hard to get money into TH right now?


Title: Re: Where are the arbiters?
Post by: cypherdoc on November 08, 2011, 02:10:24 PM
how much are they selling for?


Title: Re: Where are the arbiters?
Post by: epetroel on November 08, 2011, 02:15:44 PM
I bought about 1,000 of them yesterday, but now Paxum transfers out of Gox are jammed up and I'm twiddling my thumbs waiting to get more money into TradeHill.


Title: Re: Where are the arbiters?
Post by: Als Pawnshop on November 08, 2011, 02:16:34 PM
Tradehill = 2.8  (12K+ <2.99)
Mt.Gox = 3.06  (12K+ >3.01)


Title: Re: Where are the arbiters?
Post by: ineededausername on November 08, 2011, 02:26:58 PM
Dammit, BitInstant is out of money....


Title: Re: Where are the arbiters?
Post by: DeathAndTaxes on November 08, 2011, 02:34:52 PM
Strange usually arbitrages that easy don't happen.

Not a speculator but I picked up 100 BTC.  That was too easy. I wish I had more USD @ TradeHill.


Title: Re: Where are the arbiters?
Post by: ineededausername on November 08, 2011, 02:48:01 PM
I picked up 140 BTC :)


Title: Re: Where are the arbiters?
Post by: cypherdoc on November 08, 2011, 02:51:04 PM
i'm coming.


Title: Re: Where are the arbiters?
Post by: nmat on November 08, 2011, 03:02:18 PM
Strange usually arbitrages that easy don't happen.

Not a speculator but I picked up 100 BTC.  That was too easy. I wish I had more USD @ TradeHill.

I've been  doing arbitrage for 4 months and it's the first time I have seen a big opportunity stay up for so long (it has been several hours now). Anyway, I also ran out of money at TradeHill :P


Title: Re: Where are the arbiters?
Post by: DeathAndTaxes on November 08, 2011, 03:04:41 PM
Strange usually arbitrages that easy don't happen.

Not a speculator but I picked up 100 BTC.  That was too easy. I wish I had more USD @ TradeHill.

I've been  doing arbitrage for 4 months and it's the first time I have seen a big opportunity stay up for so long (it has been several hours now). Anyway, I also ran out of money at TradeHill :P

Yeah I looked into it a couple months ago when my expanded farm started creating a solid flow of cash & BTC at both exchanges but the amounts were so small and fleeting I said MEH.  The crappy thing is I just had Tradehill send a check for $500 on Friday so it limited what I could grab.   


Title: Re: Where are the arbiters?
Post by: nmat on November 08, 2011, 03:24:44 PM
Yeah I looked into it a couple months ago when my expanded farm started creating a solid flow of cash & BTC at both exchanges but the amounts were so small and fleeting I said MEH.  The crappy thing is I just had Tradehill send a check for $500 on Friday so it limited what I could grab.  

Most opportunities are < 3% and gone within minutes, but occasionally there are bigger ones.

Arbitrage bots have been losing much more money with the price fluctuation in the last months than they have been earning with the trades.


Title: Re: Where are the arbiters?
Post by: ineededausername on November 08, 2011, 03:32:31 PM
Yay, picked up another 100.  I love when this happens.


Title: Re: Where are the arbiters?
Post by: Litt on November 08, 2011, 03:49:42 PM
Wish I had opened an account at TH and had some funds there to buy some, but kinda concerned also because of what I read in #mtgox today.

Curious as to who is trying to dump so many coins at $3 at TH and why not get more $ just selling at MtGox unless they don't want to get caught selling stolen coins or something. Earlier today on #mtgox there were couple people who had their account on hold because they found trace of Allinvain's coins.

http://pastebin.com/4eiSCMB5


Title: Re: Where are the arbiters?
Post by: ineededausername on November 08, 2011, 03:52:11 PM
So the thief finally cashes out...  at $3 instead of $15 or $20 xD


Title: Re: Where are the arbiters?
Post by: BadBear on November 08, 2011, 04:02:09 PM
So the thief finally cashes out...  at $3 instead of $15 or $20 xD

I like how it's assumed to be a thief.  Cause anyone with a significant amount must be someone who scammed or swindled.   ::)


Title: Re: Where are the arbiters?
Post by: ineededausername on November 08, 2011, 04:03:16 PM
So the thief finally cashes out...  at $3 instead of $15 or $20 xD

I like how it's assumed to be a thief.  Cause anyone with a significant amount must be someone who scammed or swindled.   ::)

Did you even read the previous post?
It all matches up well.  Askwall for 20k and stolen coins showing up in people's accounts...


Title: Re: Where are the arbiters?
Post by: Litt on November 08, 2011, 04:05:37 PM
So the thief finally cashes out...  at $3 instead of $15 or $20 xD

I like how it's assumed to be a thief.  Cause anyone with a significant amount must be someone who scammed or swindled.   ::)

Did you even read the previous post?
It all matches up well.  Askwall for 20k and stolen coins showing up in people's accounts...

Well I wasn't trying to make accusations per say. I was just noticing the timing of events happening and thought it might be of interest for some. It was enough to make me curious.

Those two guys could have exchanged their coins a while ago and they are just showing up just as well. Many possibilities.



Title: Re: Where are the arbiters?
Post by: nmat on November 09, 2011, 06:31:06 AM
And it is happening again: TradeHill at 2.85 and MtGox at 3.05


Title: Re: Where are the arbiters?
Post by: trogdorjw73 on November 09, 2011, 07:37:16 AM
Too bad there's not a good way to get money into Tradehill quickly.


Title: Re: Where are the arbiters?
Post by: nmat on November 09, 2011, 07:59:50 AM
Too bad there's not a good way to get money into Tradehill quickly.

It would seem that if you can't get funds in and out it is not really an exchange...

There is bitinstant but apparently they are out of funds, again.


Title: Re: Where are the arbiters?
Post by: trogdorjw73 on November 09, 2011, 08:29:36 AM
Curious... how does BitInstant run out of funds so frequently? Seems like they're just a part of Tradehill anyway, but I guess when everyone is trying to take advantage of the $0.30 spread.... I know I transferred quite a bit through them in the past day (several $100 in multiple passes), and they get a 0.89% to 1.29% cut each time. Guess they have to wait for the MtGox withdrawals to actually show up? But they can still accept through Dwolla, so it seems like more of a way to just increase their margins when there's a large gap.


Title: Re: Where are the arbiters?
Post by: old_engineer on November 09, 2011, 09:41:04 AM
It looks like an arbiter finally managed to move that huge sell wall @$3 from Tradehill to annihilate the huge $3 bid wall Mt. Gox.  It only took, what, 36 hours?


Title: Re: Where are the arbiters?
Post by: epetroel on November 09, 2011, 01:36:05 PM
Curious... how does BitInstant run out of funds so frequently? Seems like they're just a part of Tradehill anyway, but I guess when everyone is trying to take advantage of the $0.30 spread.... I know I transferred quite a bit through them in the past day (several $100 in multiple passes), and they get a 0.89% to 1.29% cut each time. Guess they have to wait for the MtGox withdrawals to actually show up? But they can still accept through Dwolla, so it seems like more of a way to just increase their margins when there's a large gap.

But they still have to have money at TradeHill to give you.  Since they can't get money into Tradehill via Dwolla (presumably), they either have to go through Paxum or bank transfers, both of which can take days.


Title: Re: Where are the arbiters?
Post by: gewure on November 09, 2011, 04:45:10 PM
This kind of lack of liquidity in the exchange itself is not a good sign. Today's arbitrage opportunity can be tomorrow's scramble for the doors. It is not sufficient that a few methods work, even if they are methods that you yourself use, if any of them do not work, and this affects the liquidity of the exchange, it is bad news. Without some stability to all the advertised funding/withdrawal methods I have to say I am out.

the fact that we discuss this rare arbitrage opportunities here and everybody is stressing to buy as fast as possible should be enough negation to your lack-of-liquidity-thesis. bitcoin is still a very small market. spreads are high, volatility is high, arbitrage is high (markets coordinates TIME and INTEREST according to Friedrich Hayek), and offcourse, where there is only a small number of traders, there is also a bigger delay in coordination (of time and interest).

btw: this thread just destroyed some asymetric information, therefore it helps lowering spreads, arbitrage and volatility. an possible (if i may assume that the most of us is acting rationally) increase liquidity, due to instant profit opportunities.

taking into account that bitcoin is traded 24/7 and that people sleep 8/7, have different timezones, don't look at charts and markets all the time, have no account at tradehill at all, or are simply wathcing several other markets, i am not in any way concerned.

the sheer mass of small and big bitcoin trading plattforms is to me a sign of increasing liquidity, not decreasing.

information is the key. information regarding big arbitrage has a certain value in BTC, in this case up to ~0,20 * 1000 BTC -> quite a lot.



Title: Re: Where are the arbiters?
Post by: EuSouBitcoin on November 09, 2011, 08:27:30 PM
I'm waiting for Mt Gox to process a withdrawal from Mt Gox to my Paxum account so I can then send the money over to TradeHill. About how long does it take Mt Gox to process a withdrawal to a Paxum account? Trying to get ready for the next arb appportunity.


Title: Re: Where are the arbiters?
Post by: epetroel on November 09, 2011, 11:56:03 PM
I'm waiting for Mt Gox to process a withdrawal from Mt Gox to my Paxum account so I can then send the money over to TradeHill. About how long does it take Mt Gox to process a withdrawal to a Paxum account? Trying to get ready for the next arb appportunity.

Either an hour, or a week, depending on whether or not they have any money at Paxum.  Usually it goes pretty smooth (hour or two transfers) for a couple days, then a week where no transfers go through, then it goes smooth for a couple days again, then another week with no transfers, rinse, repeat.

At least that's been my experience over the last month or so.