Bitcoin Forum

Mind well everyone, I have smelled this pump incoming.
You know how? I watch the network congestion every now and then. And guess what, I had been seeing unnecessary high fee payers once again which gave me a signal of an assured rise in the price of Bitcoins. Either way, it goes like this or opposite as sometimes, when price of BTC rises, fee starts to rise and chase its previous higher highs. Is $5000 showing a possibility of BTC transaction fees to be rising to newer highs too?

Mate, I have also noticed that I guessed it's already part of the pump.

Whenever the market goes up, expect fees goes up too. Last Dec. 2017, there's a network congestion that made fees too high.

We've seen this event in the past were fees reach an ATH too along with bitcoins ATH. I think this the fault of people whos at panic mode when sending bitcoin in an exchange.

I think when the pump ends and there is a correction the fees will also be back to normal.

This is quite common and this has taken place several times in the past as the users above stated. This isn't an issue anymore, at times this gets correlated with the block size issue. Now the translation accelerators play a big role in pushing transactions free as well as a paid service. This network congestion automatically gets resolved in a course of time.

Yes! There is a reation between the market price and transaction fee and you guessed it right! Usually when the price goes higher, the network experiences a lot of transactions which leads to congestion! And whenever there is congestion, the network fees increases which also increases the number of unconfirmed transactions.

During normal times, the usual number of unconfirmed transactions remain between 1200 - 8000. However , it is more than 62k now while writing this reply!

You might onto something.

I've said it in another thread, fees have been on the rise since last week for no reason.
Take a look at how the mempool looks over a 2-week period: https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#0,2w

Fees began to increase on March 26, unless something was going on behind the scenes and traders started making their move, I can't find something that can explain that sudden rise in fees.

If you check bitcoinfees.earn(dot)com, the optimal fee at the time of this post is 98 sats, so there's a lot of people overpaying for fees, pretty crazy considering that you could pay from 20-40 sats and get your tx confirmed in a few hours but I guess some people don't have the patience to wait.

it is surely that. but the transaction fee only increases at the time the price of the BTC has increased. it doesn't increase too much after that. Because the trading volume at the market is very high, so the fee must be higher.
then they will adjust the fee to a reasonable level. do not worry buddy :)

Just down to basic activity I think, however since 2017 we now have segwit and LN to accommodate some of the traffic.   I would seriously hope we never see the fees rise to such silly levels as 2017 saw.   This was really destructive even if it was a nice pay day for the miners, its not feasible to say Bitcoin is useful when 'stuck' in that way

But I'd agree it is some indicator to take note and volume does help confirm a rise which might otherwise not hold.   I want to see more websites introduce consumers to cheaper alternate uses of BTC, hopefully this happens so we get more people with a positive view and experience with Bitcoin transactions, speed, processing, etc


https://i.imgur.com/BU6Htk1.png


https://medium.com/@overtorment/bitcoin-replace-by-fee-guide-e10032f9a93f

I fear that this might be the case if FOMO kicks in harder and a lot of people would be wanting to trade their bitcoins to get in on the action. It has happened in the 2017 bull run, though during those times the LN wasn't deployed or not even fully operational, and we might see some changes this time around considering that the LN is already up to take a chunk of the network's transactions. Volumes rising, together with mempool rising with a somewhat unknown cause can be a great indicator of what's to come in the market, though it can always go either way, always.

If you trying to figure out what caused the pump then it is important to consider the cause and effect. IMHO it seems like price growth caused fee increase: holders found a chance to sell their coins, exchange it into alts or just buy something irl while the price was growing due to growth on exchanges, where most operations are performed outside the bitcoin blockchain.

The transaction fee and Bitcoin price doesn't really matter to be honest , every single exchange is going to take what they take from the beginning .
For example is there is a exchange A that is taking 0.0005 BTC per transaction it's going to take that no matter what the price of Bitcoins surge, this is really weird to be honest ::) if the Bitcoin price surged to millions ? What are we gonna do ? 🤣 Stop using exchanges ..
?
This is something that I find very stupid in most exchanges but there are some where they increase and decrease the amount of the Bitcoins they take and I think those ones are better off to be considered for the use .
No matter what the transaction fee is still gonna be very high .
But if we use segwit , that's really good at this to be honest the fee and all decrease drastically and you have the option to pay according to your choice , you can choose the slower one and even the high speed one.

:) Hope this answers your question.

This will be the true test of LN and Segwit. Once we start a bull run, transactions will pour in by the dozens. I do not want to experience what happened to the network before where transactions get trapped for hours before getting confirmed. You need to pay a very high fee if you want to get confirmed fast. I hope these technologies will help to process transactions fast enough that we do not need to raise tx fees.

Today I paid BTC0.00029744 ($1.53) for a $92 bill as a regular transaction fee and even waited about an hour for the transaction to get confirmed.

Fees may have increased because of heavy transactions taking place due to the BTC pump.

How much can we expect in the next run?

It would be more, so its not really surprising that sudden pumps on bitcoins price correlates with huge volume of transactions and with that,fees are going high too.We have seen
in the past on how fees react when BTC price reaching its ATH? Fees are insanely high and this is one of the reason why Bitcoin do still have a problem when it comes to these kind of situations.
We have LN and Segwit though.

Speculators happily outbid basic users to get that first next block confirmation. It might get worse if the price pumps further because of how speculators will then try to outbid each other, and this could cause the fees to be pushed to levels well beyond a regular situation with the same number of unconfirmed transactions.

Speculators also paid up for the fees during the 2017 bull run. Their potential profits were so large that a $50-$100 fee was peanuts to them. It's party time for miners, but a bad situation for basic users trying to get their transaction confirmed.

In the end, current network congestion is a much needed test for Bitcoin and Segwit. As far as I can see, the fees are not that extreme. If the fees do end up going towards something that most people consider extreme, it will only boost Segwit adoption because exchanges will be forced to offer users a better user experience.

If the uptrend continues for a few more months and we enter another bull market like the one in 2017, we could see fees go as high as two years ago (at least in Legacy transactions). If I'm not mistaken, fees around December 2017, the peak of the bull run, were around the $20-$30 range, and I think the highest average fee we reached back then was around $50 when we were in the 19k-20k area.

But maybe things will change this time around since we now have SegWit and the LN, we'll see how things develop in the next few months.

Or people might use it as a political tool like the 2016-2017 period. We might see companies like Blockchain and Bitpay and Bitmain and Bitcoin.com start pushing their political agenda again. I tried to use Bitpay to buy an Amazon gift card last night and they're already charging nearly $2 in miner/network fees at the moment. I don't see them switching to Segwit anytime soon. They seem perfectly content using it as a political selling point to bash Bitcoin and push Bitcoin Cash and other lower fee altcoins.

It's also interesting to see Garzik backing Veriblock, which incentivizes its validators to incessantly spam the Bitcoin blockchain with OP_Return transactions and is apparently now having quite an effect.

So long as it clears the transactions in a day or so its ok to call it liquid still.   If we start to observe a backlog of transactions that is never cleared then its actually a negative situation regardless of the price movement and we should not expect it to end well from that point.    I will look later for a graph of the various layers to transactions waiting to process, usually gives a good grasp of whether people have got caught out by technology or possibly outdated wallets not using realistic fees.

One point I noticed was Bitcoin cash doubling in price, so an outperformance even past this rise presumably because of this effect.   We do have alternatives, its a test whether they are going to be fully utilise and will relieve pressure to avoid a repeat

AFAIK I paid around 0.01BTC or more than that during last all time high.

We may expect higher than you paid if this pump pushes through.

I somehow agree, and I also think this is a basic in every market; as more transactions are piling in and happening, the better one asset goes because of the movement it gains. In the stock market, when a stock is usually bought and sold, which ultimately increases its traffic, it would be given a positive image by most investors, which in turn, would help drive up its value significantly, especially when more and more people are wanting to buy their stocks. I think, it's the same principle that's happening in the cryptocurrency market, the more transactions using Bitcoins are happening, the more its price point gains.

Don't just limit it to traders, I think that even exchanges were knowing about this upcoming pump due to which they started paying those 98-200 sats/byte (where they could have paid less than 5 sats/byte to easily get it confirmed in max 3 blocks). I've watched this since the fee was being played with and was made to clog the network once again and make everyone pay higher fees back. It is true that it's people who don't just understand the metrics behind this and they don't even try to lower the fee but just send whatever was recommended to them. This way, we are not too far of seeing those $10-100 paid in fees days once again. Fees should really be lowered down when an increase (a quicker one) takes place in BTC price. This was almost a pump in the range of 30-50% where even indicators gave overbought signals in each of those.

Well, you know that it's not really because of the prices going up but rather truly a correlation due to other factors, right? Transaction fees increase when the network is busy. If too many poeple are sending their bitcoins in the network, miners need more encouragement with confirming the transactions, so we have to pay them more (at least, that's how I see it). At the same time, people tend to get active when the prices are going up, because they either want to sell while they are high or buy more because of believing that the bull run is just starting. At the same time, though, the fees might get high in case of a massive sell-off as well, so it's more of an indicator that something is happening, but this something is not necessarily a good thing.

This is an interesting one and maybe a good sign... Even better than the correlation between increase in the  search for Bitcoin on Google .
I noticed the increase in fees a day or less before the bull run and wondered what caused it.

Well, let me explain according to my own opinion:
When price increases, it means bitcoin has more value in usd, so logically value of fee in usd rises too. But also when price rises, demand increases too but supply continues to grow as usual. When demand increases, number of transactions increases too which means in order to get confirmation quickly, you have to pay high fee.

That's normal when there's a price update all fees on cryptocurrency transactions will also increase. Everything will change according to it's price rate of every crypto. Same also with fiat economy everything will going to increase, when a certain goods in the local store sold to consumer has to be updated to current fiat exchange rate in order to fulfill the worldwide market standard pricing. It's the rule of financial system, which is common to experience during price increase of bitcoin which entitled for all crypto coins not just bitcoin but also for ethereum contract tokens.

Found the graph for fees if anyone was not believing they rose some, still not a spike more a rise into volume I guess

https://i.imgur.com/iv8kCzn.png

The best timing between spikes into yellow higher fees, you might get the green range of 30 or so in the early hours of UTC somewhere.   Surprising as I think that would correlate to Asia working day


Also another graph I spotted showing major  buy areas on initial rise -

https://i.imgur.com/rJKGUPN.jpg

With Segwit I don't think that there will be a much of a transaction fee hike as we saw back in 2017.

But it's my observation as well that transaction fees and market activity (which can be reflected through bitcoin price) has a direct correlation, probably because traders are more likely to move coins around during periods of volatility, and since prices fluctuates so much during high market activity periods, more people are willing to pay higher fees which push the overall fees up so that they're not exposed to temporary exchange rate risks when their coins are unconfirmed.

It's an interesting correlation. Whether or not this can actually be used as a TA method is debatable, since it's unclear which is the independent and the dependent variable.

I think its very normal if transaction fee increase when bitcoin price rising. Its because we convert it to US Dollar number but the transaction fee still the same in sats. I am prefer choosing bitcoin price rising rather than drop become lower because when we decide to invest, we must be want to make profits on our investment

I have taken note of this since the last hype of December 2017 when the bitcoin transactions fees was so high that one almost pay $40 transactions fees for a transaction of above $100 and that always happen when ever bitcoin price rise so high and the point is when bitcoin Reach's $8000/and above the fees increase suddenly. But hope that will not repeat it self when ever the next bull run return.

Just sent one an hour ago, 0.00015955 , almost half you paid and next block confirmation!

Also, the main culprit for higher transaction fees is veriblock:
Bitcoin Shed Over 40% In Transaction Count After Testnet Ended (https://bitcoinexchangeguide.com/veriblocks-self-published-report-shows-bitcoin-shed-over-40-in-transaction-count-after-testnet-ended/)



Nope, miners don't need anything more.
You can create a block with 1 million ASICs or with a couple of CPUs like Satoshi did.
There is no relation between the hashrate and the number of tx that can be confirmed, that is only limited by the block size.

Increase in transaction fee happens because of increase in traffic at blockchain network,so you have to pay high for your transaction to get confirmed earlier which doesn't relate anything to the price increase.

There are much more iinside and outside indicators which goes up when price grows like hashrate, difficulty or google trends search bitcoin. I think this one is only correlated with price but it's more like effect of a price grow which results bitcoin is more interested by masses and more people buys and mempool is filled by new txs.

Well i think indeed is a connection between high fee on bitcoin transaction and the price grow, in my opinion this happen because when price grow more and more people start send their bitcoin to exchange or from them and start sell and buy bitcoin and this cause the high fee.

That’s how it is, whenever the price is increasing, the fees for transaction will also increase cause miners will be charging bigger fees. I can remember that in 2017 I had to pay up to $15 and a bit above that for transactions. There were even some people that mentioned paying more than as fees for transactions. Then there were lots of people complaining that the fees is too much and that cryptocurrency needs correction and I think that is what they got now, a correction I guess

The price has even been increasing this month. Ever since we got into the month of April, as the price of Bitcoin moved, the transaction fees followed it up to 500%. Earlier this year it was $0.18 that we were paying as transaction fees, but it has moved up and now cost $1.3 for each transactions you do. If the price and fees for transactions continues to increase, a lot of people are going to switch to altcoins when they want to make transaction and that’s going to make the price to drop again. But let’s first see what’s going to happen.

Seriously, aren't we past the stage where we've learned that miners can't charge bigger fees?


Not always.
In 2018 we had a jump from 6000 to 8000 in July, and one from 6500 to 9500 during last April..
If you look at the size of the mempool during the last 12 months you will see that none of the rises was reflected in the mempool size:
https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#0,1y

Also, one of the biggest spikes in transactions happened during November which was a dump :P

Im thinking this also, alt coins will thrive while Bitcoin wants to charge over a dollar just because alot of traffic and very minor transaction want to confirm in minutes and many only contain value below that dollar.     People might think that isnt important but I actually think the business done below 1 dollar is the most genuine and regular ongoing business that will always occur in crypto currency.     I guess Im a cheapskate but I dont want to pay over a dollar ideally ever, Im just not that rich, important or in that much of a hurry normally.    I do think the demand for efficiency in crypto is a driving force and determiner of success

This part of the online economy is only handled as well as crypto can do it, most alternatives globally contain alot more hassle and cost usually and especially that is true for the developing world.    I would expect BTC to be handling all business but if it really does not aim to do so or cant then alt coins are going to do well for years to come despite some viewing them as nothing important

what's the connection of usd to bitcoin ? you mean the fees are payed in usd ? fees are actually measured on bitcoins while other wallets/exchanges measure the fees in usd or other local currency depending on what country you are in  .


the dump or the bear is the one that can trigger demand although some people are still/also buying when they see that the price of cyptos are growing  . 


when demand increase  , isnt it the supply decreases  ?

OP must be very observant, there is always an increase in transaction fees when there is an increase in price and this happens because once the price of bitcoin begin to increase, the bitcoin network get congested due to the number of transactions that are being carried out on the network, miners will now have to work much more confirming transaction and that cause a delay in the confirmation of some transactions on the blockchain, since many of the transactions will have to pile up and wait to be included in a block.

Today BTC prices trying to break $5950 levels and at the same time blockchain.com showed me pending transactions up to 30k whereas my electrum wallet suggested very costly fees to be included to attract miners as quick as possible.

I guess when bitcoin markets into relatively peak levels, more people are buying/selling bitcoins or transacting bitcoins in more numbers which triggers higher tx fees. It is a correlations and could be identified easily for any bitcoiner 8).