Bitcoin Forum

Wences Casares, the CEO of Xapo and board member of Paypal, believes there is a 50% chance that bitcoin will succeed, causing the leading cryptocurrency to rise 250x in price from where it is today. Doing some math, this equates to $1.25 million per bitcoin. I'm not sure if this is a realistic figure, but it seems to be one of the most bullish calls in some time.

https://www.newsbtc.com/2019/04/14/paypal-board-member-bitcoin-btc-value-may-surge-by-250x-if-it-succeeds/

I am very concerned when I read such comments
whether Wences Casares or John McAfee or anyone who publishes such exaggerations, is causing a state of unreliability
btc will not spread with the exaggerated.

Seems togood tobe true. Bitcoin may rise as most people predicted, however, $1.25 million per bitcoin is exageration. I stopped listening to influencers opinion about ptice prediction because it seems that they are spreading their prediction to shill.

Too much expectation may lead to disappointment but it might possible to happen after 2140.
Since bitcoin already reaches 19k USD each a year ago there are possibilities it might happen but we don't know when and I am sure we won't see it until we die.
This is just my own speculation and don't expect too much that it might happen these coming years.

I agree with you, that price is an exaggeration. I would say it could go up to 100k but 1.25M is just too much, there is not enough money in the world to make BTC go that high, unless some bot bum the price like when BTC hit $1k for the first time, i think that's the only chance, and if happen bitcoin will not be at that price for more than 1 day.

Yeah, for bitcoin to surpass $1 million, it would have to suck up all major currencies like a powerful black hole and literally just take over - this is the ideal of some bitcoin maximalists. Presumably, it is in this camp where Casares falls. However, though we may dismiss his prediction, he's not exactly a fringe figure in the industry.

these types of exaggerations have always existed in bitcoin and sometimes they aren't that bad either. for example in this case i don't see him giving any kind of unrealistic timeframe like McAfee or a couple of others did and $1 million per bitcoin has been predicted before and there is a pretty good chance that it will eventually happen.

Tim Draper's 250k prediction is much more sensible, but 1 million is still in the realm of possibility (within 20 years). Max Keiser's 100k prediction is even more realistic. However, what I find absurd are predictions of 10 or 100 million.

I remeber when bitcoin pump hard last year ( 2017 ) the exchange rate of btc to local currency on our country is now close to millions  .  how much more in some countries where the exchange rate of usd is high  ?  Anyways , its good to know that paypal owners are also involved and support cryptos such as bitcoin . they dont see bitcoin as threat to their business while most of us are always thinking of this matter   .

Where did he get these figures, I wonder?

You could read his blog post here:

https://www.kanaandkatana.com/valuation-depot-contents/2019/4/11/the-case-for-a-small-allocation-to-bitcoin

He also makes some very interesting points as to where Bitcoin's end game as a currency might be. His prediction is definitely much more than just throwing out an arbitrary number just because.

These are some form of common price prediction that continue to come out. Looking the predicted value it seems unrealistic, but the same has got the increased chance as the market could turn growing big anytime without any prior indication. Though the 2017 isn't that big compared to the predicted value, but the 2017 growth took place when people were targeting $10k. Growth is real, how much time it requires is the myth.

Yeah, its either bitcoin will succeed or it will not. That is the 50% chance he is saying. Then he spews random multiplier and you believed it? That is not the most bullish calls. It is the crappiest speculation though.

PayPal have try for getting connection with bitcoin and have announce for public to working together with bitcoin and cryptocurrency, I think it will be positive effect for bitcoin price later and could raised to higher price.

Just in case it does happen, I will invest whatever spare money I have to buy Bitcoin starting from now on. I just need to be hodler and nothing more. If you think it wisely, we can still avail a full 1 Bitcoin, it is possible for most average person. We might regret this time if we don't act now. I will be getting goosebumps more often, hope it does goes to 1 million as they say.

Yeah it is in the real of possibility but it will take some time as you have pointed.

See, when bitcoin price is making a headway, lots of bullish sentiments are coming out. And who would forgot John M. prediction?  ;D

We are not yet in the 5 digits but we have heard a lot of perma bulls getting out of their hibernation and making lavishly claims about X amount of prediction. Just wait till next year and I'm sure almost everyone of them will be singing the same tune again.

250x seems insane and I don't think it can reach that value anytime in the future unless BTC achieves mainstream adoption which no one is sure about. I do remember what Mcafee mentioned about his private part etc sometime back in 2017.

Truly hilarious indeed. However, any positive news is great for the cryto ecosystem which is why I appreciate these bullish calls(Even if some are insane).

It is nice to listen to some positive prediction but sometimes we need to wake up from dreaming and face the reality .
This predictions are way to far to happen and it is too good to be true .
We have to be honest to our own to and don't expect too much you could just be disappointed in the end .

How can someone in right mind will believe that people from Paypal talking this huge speculative issue for bitcoin?nah of course i will not lol

But reaching $1.25 million per bitcoin is something unbelievable,i am a believer of bitcoin from the moment i enter and invest here,but its not enough for me to hallucinate about this huge price 😂

Bitcoin is a currency and not any treasure in physical form

 That is a huge speculation because 250x is a very huge Price jump and at that it should come with a long period of time attached to it, even PayPal involvement alone can not give such speculated rise and to say institutions like PayPal only make 7.1% of the total crypto users and investors. The remaining percentages come from individuals and group investors, so I will take this as just another speculations.

This is a very serious statement. A 250-fold increase from the current price is the price per BTC over 1 million dollars. It seems to me that this is possible in the distant future, but not today or in the next year or two.

Seems unrealistic to me. But hey, this is a cryptocurrency world and any price is possible with bitcoin. He speculate bitcoin too much and I would like to address that it may come true for the upcoming years but not for now.


We can even buy and invest now. Remember that we were at the bottom when the price was at $3k and it is a good time to buy now. Hence, if that speculation of Wences will gonna happen in the future, then we will get the jackpot and feels like we won the lottery. ;D

Many says this prediction is unrealistic but when you are with bitcoin when its value is only cents, did you think that it will reach its value now? Not right? Its unrealistic from cents to $19k but it happen and now $5k it is still a huge surge, It is possible in bitcoin but we don't know when will that happen I hope we're still alive  ;D

Huge, I like them giving a good prediction when the price is already bullish, that way we will see more investors coming in because of news like that.
They could be one of the whales, they like people to join the FOMO party.

That is a good news and good information and analysis that is going to moves the cryptocurrencies market upwards.  I strongly believe that we are at times were we would have a nice price because of this statement from personal like wences.

"may grow"!! bitcoin is already growing as it has been for the past 10 years and it has never stopped. in fact the "growth" is only becoming faster as we move forward.
as for the 250x, it is just a start. we have already seen a rise of thousands of times magnitude and having a limited supply is contributing to that increase which will become a deciding factor again in the future so the 250x he is talking about is only a small part of that.

It is realistic. There are 17 million coins around. If we divide it by 500 million people, and use the medium income of these people for calculation, the value would be as high as one million. We just dont know when this will happen.

Does he know the fact that a million dollars in price would mean bitcoin will worth above 18 trillion dollars in market cap ?

Not even whole market, just bitcoin itself will worth 18 trillion dollars. I am not saying its impossible but think about it, NYSE has about 18 trillion dollars, that is the NYSE the place where all wall street and all that happens, worlds biggest stock market place and the biggest money changing hands place in the whole world. If you think just bitcoin can rival all of NYSE stocks combined all by itself than you have to be considering bitcoin to be much bigger than what it is today.

I feel like it is not impossible but it looks as improbable as it gets. Maybe in 10 years all numbers will skyrocket, maybe NYSE will become like 50-70 trillions by that time and that 18 trillion for bitcoin will look smaller but I feel like 1-5 trillion range would make much more sense if you ask me.

Nothing new here where these personalities call out some speculations that do even reach out of this world.Im not even believing that we would able to hit up $30k-$50k which is
recently predicted yet we havent even reach nor passed previous ATH.We should do make some calls if we do able to reach or break that ATH then its possible but talking on
$1.25M/BTC then they are just dreaming.

Is possible but i think we need more time and more people not investing bitcoin on any new coin they see and on any new project because if project fail or is exit scam the "devs" of that project will cashout bitcoin and this can cause the price drop.

If bitcoin will succeed globally as an investment / currency i have no doubt that this price is possible... just do some quick math, how many people are living on earth and how many bitcoins are existing in 10 years? deduct a few 100k`s of lost bitcoins from wallets in the early days when bitcoin was worth nothing. So, for me it's not unrealistic.

Not enough money in the world for a $1.25m bitcoin? are you stupid? all it would take is a few trillion fresh dollars and a damn good reason for hodlers to hodl.

Everything in this world is possible! I will not deny his prediction as he has not set any timeframe as Mr. McAfee did in his prediction.
IMO bitcoin just needs a solid support and that's the lacking right now, maybe it's from the US, and then it will start its journey to the unrealistic high.

I personally don't like these kinds of predictions for two reasons.

One is that they rely on the premise of bitcoin "succeeding", but yet, what is the criteria for bitcoin to succeed? If it's solely to fulfill its monetary function, hasn't bitcoin already succeeded, or at least partly so? Or is success measured by adoption, or prices?

Secondly, these speculative predictions are usually baseless. It doesn't matter whether or not the person speaking is a Paypal executive or not, I personally think that the 250x growth figure is simply an arbitrary number that he had thought up.

I don't think that this kind of growth is impossible in the future, if we do have mass adoption of BTC and inflation of fiat, essentially increasing the nominal value of BTC even if adoption doesn't increase. But it's definitely unlikely.

Well there is EASILY enough money in the world to take it that high. If Bitcoin went to 1.25 million it would still be smaller than the US stock market, for example, and of course all the value on earth is far far far far larger than just the US stock market.

Anyway, I agree with the guy. He's not saying its gonna hit 1.25 million in the next few years. He is saying IF it succeeds on a global scale, where it is normal for most internet connected people to store value in and transact with bitcoin. If several billion people have bitcoin (which means investment institutions and the wealthy would also take up a lot of it) I could definitely see Bitcoin over $1 million by maybe middle of the century. Obviously low 6 figures is much more realistic if we're talking about what could happen in the next decade, but yeah what this guy says is right, in a few decades if it succeeds absolutely it will likely be over a million.

Succeeding means the world accepts bitcoin in the mainstream. Basically it means billions of people store bitcoin for savings and/or use bitcoin to transact with. A secondary global reserve currency used by billions. If it reaches that success a million plus dollars can definitely happen, doesn't need fiat inflation for that.

But yeah this kind of prediction doesn't really matter now because we gotta see what happens to bitcoin in the next decade. First decade it showed it has potential and staying power and wide recognition, but this next decade we'll see if the technology can advance for it to be scalable to transact with on a global scale, and if it can convince the mainstream market to keep it (or keep using it) beyond just trying to get rich quick and then selling when it crashes and then staying away.

The reason it could happen is exactly what Mcafee said - because fiat is going to crash, and people need something to put whatever value is left in it before it totally collapses.
It's not about bitcoin becoming great, it's about bitcoin being there when all hell around it collapses.
The US alone adds a trillion dollars to the deficit each year. If you think this is a sustainable economic plan, you should see a shrink.

I remember when I first started in btc earning in faucets that needs xapo wallets. Those were the good old days.  He's a ceo of xapo so it's expected for him to be bullish in btc but I don't agree about the 50% success rate that he only see and that 1.5m per btc is outrageous.

I can see that we have some scholars and mathematicians in the forum and they need to explain further how this will work.
Mathematically, I can’t seem to break the work flow down but I can only use fundamentals to really judge the performance of the coin.
If we need 500 million people to get this work done, we can really achieve this if all hands are on deck and we focus more on promoting Bitcoin around the globe, 500 million people out of over 7 billion should not be a very difficult number to really get to adopt BTC, we just need to work more on creating projects that will make this happen.

I think these people have invested themselves and are chiming their own bell....

We never know, unless they'll make it public.
people who invested in BTC can make a bad or good call, they both benefit on the outcome, if it will cause a dump they will accumulate
and if will cause a big pump, they'll cash out with a good profit. Don't take their words seriously, we should know how they play.

Just have an observation first before making your final decision with bitcoin, being clever could benefit you in such ways. Never engage quickly, but rather having wise choice is definite. Finances is a very serious matter to deal with, we can't fulfill our visions unless we're certain with an investment that we prefer to choose for. If bitcoin will grow to whatever value that could probably be reaching, then so be it because it has no limitations and the value might be infinite despite of being volatile.

Just another guy who tries to spread FOMO.
If he really believes that when what is the reason why Paypal has such a huge distance from the cryptocurrency industry? Shouldn't they support withdrawals or deposits or at least give the option to their clients to buy crypto and hold them in their paypal accounts?

Well its okay for me for him to say that but I would rather stick with what I believe in. For that large rise it could cause mayhem in the financial system so a slow movement would be best for all.

He is from Xapo and he is keeping bitcoins which is no doubt about that.
Why do you think he will spread this kind of news?! ;D

For the reason that he wants us to buy and so he can sell.
Big investors are not only looking for long term investment, they have huge investment so any small percentage increase would result to a decent profit already, I think that's what he is up to.

For those who have been here in 2017 and see the price grows magically to almost $20000, I would say that a slow movement is much better. It might be a long hard grind ahead, but if it will bring some sort of stability to the price then I certainly will go on that direction.


Just to shill and see his portfolio grow overtime. Who wouldn't love to see our investments grow by just shilling?  ;D

You are very much right about that, we can never take the words of these players serious, I am sure before they picked interest in Bitcoin, they must have been well trained on how to manipulate people in cryptocurrency, using their influence. When you see people of this figure coming out in public to hype a coin, they will never declare their interest but they absolutely have a shares of the coin, since they are very rich, they play the games of whales too, hype coin to create pump and bad mouth it bad to create dump, we already know how they operate and the best is to move alongside with them, we should never get caught up in their game and never allow ourselves to be manipulated again.

I am not interested in the predictions made by influencers because they will not stop to say various predictions related to bitcoin. Their opinions as if they were considered right by the beginners and in fact, most of these predictions did not occur in the future, maybe even those influencers only used their statements to make a profit.

Maybe they feel that what they say can be influenced by people, for beginners 'maybe, yes' but not for me personally. Because what they say has exceeded their morality namely as ordinary human beings.

IIn the past two years John McAfee's considered a great thinker, entrepreneur, and as a crypto celebrity on tweeters, he often posts that are shocking and touting the positive future of cryptocurrency prices, for a moment it might look good however if we can pay attention His words well, I think what he said was far beyond common sense.

Price predictions are sky high, although in reality its still in process and continues to increase every 5 years but the value above $1 million is an existing hope high prediction. I think it's just speculation and we all don't know the future how many value.

It would seem he's of the same mind with McAfee. Well making predictions in this space isn't something new anymore. They should just put a bet on it and put their money where their mouth is. I mean a street-like gamble on the price of bitcoin - Futures analogue if you will.

They did not invent anything new. All was already said and known before.   Paypal itself is a small payer and Bitcoin is for long way more used then Paypal.

We don't really know if this person wise enough to actually make those claims (seriously one million dollars?) or he is just doing a wishful thinking. Some people believe in something because it would help them out a lot and than whenever they are given the chance they just say that their hopes will happen sooner or later and that is their way of putting their dreams out there in the world. This could totally be something like that.

We all know he is investing heavily into bitcoin anyway so one bitcoin equals one million dollars would mean the worlds to him and he would make more money than he ever did (which says something since he is a rich person anyway) if bitcoin went to one million dollars one day. This feels more like his dreams when he lays at night instead of actual prediction.

Yep, just because somebody works for Paypal doesn't suddenly give them special insight into the future of bitcoin. Infact, Paypal is one of the tools that has the direct ability to compete with bitcoin - all it has to do is lower the fees it takes - they make a little less profit but may gain ever more market share.

After 20 years, this is quite possible. If bitcoin continues its rapid development, we can soon see such an increase in value Grow 250x . Cryptocurrency is the future.

Paypal has always shown a interest in Bitcoin I also think some higher up people there are just large investors trying to help it make them more money.

50% chance of succeeding does this means that bitcoin has a chance to fail? he's giving too much price prediction for bitcoin and it seems that he's half believing that it's likely to fail/succeed. Like what everyone has told, he's the CEO of Xapo and that company mainly focuses with bitcoin. I remember those days when I'm using xapo but due to the high fees, many has stopped using them. This isn't different from what John McAfee has predicted but JM's prediction is for next year.

They have to say this one so many investors will believe to them and their coins will become expensive. Well, paypal already aware about this one, and maybe this is why its employees are also investing on bitcoin. 250x growth with bitcoin is not to easy happen, this is just an obvious hype in the market.

Correct, and even if that happened how many people are still going to be holding their coins by that time? Or how many of us are going to be even alive when that happens? There is no point in worrying about such a thing it is better to concentrate in things that are a lot closer like when bitcoin will surpass 6000 or when bitcoin will reach 5 figures again? Worrying about something that may take decades, if it happens at all, is pointless.

for blockchain adoption im sure we will see more "new blockchain ecosystem" like thai agency election use blockchain (https://www.coindesk.com/thai-government-agency-develops-blockchain-tech-for-elections-voting) , but the main problem must we solving before bitcoin prise rising is "the implementation about lightning chain" if we care about it we will see bitcoin network will be stable event bitcoin price rising again.

I know very much from what angle they say this, and I can boldly say that they are very correct and we would definitely see the price of Bitcoin get to that stated amount, though it make take some few years before this is achieved, because what will cause an increase in price is recession that will be coming to so many countries of the world rendering their fiat money useless including the united states which is known to be the world power.

In case the exchange rates climb to $1.25 million per coin, then the total net worth of all the coins (i.e the market capitalization) can be over $20 trillion. Just ask yourselves whether this is possible or not. My opinion is that we need to keep our targets low and nothing can be gained if we go after such unrealistic targets.

I really don’t see anything for now that is stopping the rapid growth of bitcoin, bitcoin has attracted the attention of a lot of people that I would not even believe that could be a partner in this, those bigger institutions that we will soon be seeing their effect on the market will enforce its adoption on other institutions too.

So, 20 years is really a long time that is more than enough for bitcoin to really develop to its fullest and become useful for store value like Gold. Majority of people will tend to hold it then as digital store value which will make it become stable for everyone to rely more on it.