Bitcoin Forum

“In my (subjective) opinion those chances of succeeding are at least 50%. If Bitcoin does succeed, 1 Bitcoin may be worth more than $1 million in 7 to 10 years. That is 250 times what it is worth today (at the time of writing the price of Bitcoin is ~ $4,000),”- Xapo CEO Wences Casares

News Courtesy - https://www.ccn.com/one-bitcoin-could-exceed-1-million-in-7-10-years-paypal-director

This news popped up in my phone from Google suggested article today and I must say that such kind of claims have no strong ground to be believed! Even though I personally believe it happens because then I will be a millionaire but I prefer to stay grounded and believe in practicality. However, this article is a bit of clickbait to me because the statement came from Wences Casares who is the CEO of XAPO. He is indeed a board member of Paypal as well but he is heavily invested in crypto sphere and made a great business out of it!

It's a simple speculation nothing to feel serious about it!

it's a prediction very exaggerated price forecast, so exaggerated that I find it impossible to happen, I hope no one will take this forecast seriously. the price can reach more than $20,000 in 5 years. 1 million is a fairy tale and his arguments are arguments that have little value


 ???

On the 14th I did not see the price fall below $5000

He might be right on giving Bitcoin a 50% (it's less than my opinion) chance on succeeding but he is definitely wrong on putting up a 1 million dollar price tag per Bitcoin. If you look at his other message :


I'm no math or investment genius but the pros definitely outweighs the risk he is talking about if we have a 50% chance of multiplying our money by 250 times. I don't know why he said this if he is very optimistic with Bitcoin's future but he definitely contradicted his own prediction just by saying this warning for us, as if he is telling us that he also doesn't believe the words that has come in his mouth.

Point of correction dude, Bitcoin market value has not drop to $4000 as you rightly mentioned in your submission above. Your projection of Bitcoin reaching the $1 million per one in the next 7- 10 year is not possible in reality except if you are dreaming.

I don't think will reach so high price in 10 years, maybe will reach over 300,000$ in 7 years, but if a lot of people will start buy then the price can go up faster and most of holders can get huge profit.

We cannot be sure of the price of bitcoin in the next few years, because it depends on our attitude towards using bitcoin. when we use it more and more, the price of bitcoin will continue to increase. Basically, I am very optimistic that the price of bitcoin will increase well and I am optimistic that our future is with bitcoin and with its sophistication and flexibility.

we will definitely see $1 million in the next two rallies at least.
but it is impossible to say how long each of these rallies are going to take. the whole process can take 2 years or 3 or even 1 and each rally will go at least 20 times higher like the last times but it has a much bigger chance of going a lot higher because each time the market grows bigger and adoption rate (the only thing affecting the price) is growing exponentially not linearly and so should the price.

It's like fourth quarter of 2017 where every news stand posts crazy predictions about bitcoins future price. Basically it's more of a way to get views than actually provide anything concrete.

Some will click the link, read the article and most likely won't buy any crypto anyways. But the news stand gets its exposure and all is well.

It's surprising how during the market decline there wasn't any predictions about bitcoins bottom of $3K. Some had very low predictions like $1000 but nothing in the $3000 range.

The Author CEO of Bitmex was correct when he said that ETH will hit double digits and most likely the only analyst to provide anything inciteful.

Agreed, what would we expect from a big investor. Of course he has a high hope for btc and will give such prediction. It's for his own good in order to make an insane profit, he will spread good vibes about the coin. The same with big investor of other coins. You won't put down the coin you have heavily invested.

I thought both of them have clash of interest, when did they start supporting bitcoin, hum, I really smell something fishy about this if true, because BTC could affect their own payment system and unless they have investment already in the coin and trying to create an hype for FOMO to step in, or it could be a way of marketing themselves more to the public using the bitcoin marketing strategy other big popular images too has been using.

Anyway, if they are truly genuine in their interest, it is really going to be a great team that solid people such as paypal are also interested in cryptocurrency, so what is then left, other company’s just need to forget their issues and join in the raise.

One million is something very big and is beyond the reality. Though the market has got the potential to reach such a high value it is in need of very big adoption. This adoption is not possible to be attained in a very short time period. It requires a large time space to grow reaching the common people's hands. From my view when each and every common man around the world know about cryptocurrency I expect the growth of bitcoin go above one million.

Lovely guy, to actually admit it's a purely subjective opinion. And at least 50% chance of that happening? So for a 50/50 boom or bust, I should get an expected value of 2/1. But ov34 200/1 at today's prices? Man I'd be crazy not to take that bet!

P.S. According to my own (subjective) calculations, there's a 50% chance that the guy's made a mistake in his calculation, leading to a distinct 80% chance that the $ 1 million could fall outside of the 7-10 year range. Watch this space in 2026-2029. I could just be NostraBitcoindamus.

Another speculation for the bitcoin price which is unreality.  $1,000,000 is some I see some prediction of others.
I would like to say for the everyone who predict that value it will not happen so don't expect for the bitcoin to become like that.  7-10 years is longtime and there is a lot of happens for sure.

No problem, I always receive so many predictions from many sources, but I never believe until I do my research. Somehow, bitcoin will increase later, and we believe that. If they say that it will happen in 7-10 years from now, then they must have guidance to talk about that, and we need to see their proof so we can believe too. But until now, bitcoin price is really hard to predict, and all of us don't know what will happen tomorrow and when the price can increase higher.

250x reward looks sweet but risks are bigger than the old days. Considering the new part of decentralized exchanges old version of exchanges can lose their reputation in the smaller time frame.

No i will never believe this idea,bitcoin is currency and not anything else so why need to think of reaching a million dollar value i respect all of opinions here but not to take things seriously in sometime

Bitcoin will have a good future and but not to the extent of huge price speculations

Uh, the risk tied to Bitcoin has never been as low as it is today. The 2015 bear market was scary as heck, while the current bear market with the improved fundamentals offered me a fantastic buying opportunity. People's confidence in the market reflects that too, because regardless of how hard we fell last year, there was still a lot of optimism, while in 2015 there was no such a thing at all.

Not investing in Bitcoin is a way bigger risk than investing in it. Even if you don't like it, but secretly think there is potential, owning a few % of it won't cause you to go bankrupt would Bitcoin go to zero overnight.

I don't think we can easily stretch out into $1-M in just a short span of time. $50K is already a daring and elusive target to reach, what more if what we're talking about is in the millions? Perhaps it might take a couple more decades before we reach it, or may not reach it at all in our whole lifetimes. But unlike any other bitcoin bulls, this guy clearly admits that it's only his subjective opinion and should not be taken seriously at all. Highly optimistic, but doesn't lure people into false hopes and I think that's what every prediction should be.

Just imagine what market cap should we get if a single bitcoin would cost 1$mln. That numbers would be able to compete with the other fiat currencies, which tbh doesn't seem realistic. And what should happen to make people invest in cryptocurrencies at least the same amounts as half of its "potential MC"? Probably nothing because it wouldn't happen.
The larger MC is, the smaller growth it will provide. It is easier to buy a pen for 1$ and resell it for 1.5$ with a 50% growth but you won't be able to resell it each time for 50% more.

I believe in what the director of PayPal said, though I think it's going to happen in a lesser time, let's say 5 years time, because we have begin to see inflation happen in so many countries of the world and this countries have already started looking for alternatives to grow their economy and the only saving grace would be crypto, this is why Russia is buying so much crypto as of today and other government of the world.

Being a director of paypal doesn't give these particular people any special insight, they are probably invested in bitcoin themselves and that would give them an excuse to use their platform for self promotion. Transaction fees if a bitcoin was worth $1 million a piece might wipe out any potential benefits from using it, over a regular payment processor like paypal.

7-10 years is still not enough time for something that big, I mean if the question was "will bitcoin ever reach one million dollars?" I would probably say yes, since there is no time period or limit we can totally just wait for another 100 years and I do not think anyone would doubt bitcoin will be over 1 million dollars in 100 years.

So, it all depends on timing, we all know it will reach a million dollars for sure but I just doubt 10 years is enough, maybe if he said 25 years I would have agreed because that is plenty of time to go to million dollars but 10 years feels like it won't be enough, maybe 500k in 10 years could be more possible honestly, even that is a challenge and depends on the world economy as well, if there is a collapse and price skyrockets couple times than its doable but if world economy gets better than bitcoin will lose its worth.

Because many people predicting bitcoin become $1,000,000 maybe it will become good because investors will be invest because they want to earn more profit that's the good side for the bitcoin value. But there is bad effects that's for sure because many people will not want impossible prediction so they possible for them to have doubt in the end and never to invest.

It is again only a prediction and as always it is difficult to say if this prediction will happen or not. I can well imagine that Bitcoin can reach this price at some point, even if a few doubts remain. But it was hard to imagine that the price would ever rise above $1000 when I started to invest in Bitcoin and today the price is way above that. Therefore I know, much is possible in crypto area, even such a high price in the future, but that's not all I'd count on.  ;)

it has never been a matter of "if" bitcoin succeeds. bitcoin is already succeeding and growing every day. and when that happens price will be a lot higher than this, $1 million will be just a start. in my opinion the thing is as Satoshi once said, bitcoin will either succeed and be used by millions of people or fail and won't be used at all.
with the path that bitcoin has been on for the past 10 years, price is going to rise past $1 million in a couple of years and 2 or 3 more "cycles".

 The absence of sellers (and/or shorters?) is remarkable. On the 3d chart (Bitstamp), a full 16(!) out of the last 19 volume candles have been green, including the latest three. I readily concede that this is a reflection of the fact that a bottom was likely made at 3200ish.

Nevertheless, in view of the steep rise that we have recently seen, and i conjunction with sharply falling volumes, this should signal temporarily overbought conditions IMHO. One should think that the odds are stacked for some sort of correction at this point, but then this is Bitcoin, and I would not be surprised if we reach 6000 before any meaningful reversal occurs.

Imagine how that was for people who bought their first coins in 2010/2011. If you told them that Bitcoin would reach $1000 in 3 years, they would probably burst out laughing because it's so hard for people to fathom how something that's worth a few bucks can be worth that much.

I actually had a similar experience with a close internet buddy of mine who is an Ethereum fanboy. He kept repeating that its price would explode well beyond $100 when it was still below $10, which I (with my Bitcoin maximalist cap on) thought wasn't possible because everything at that point for me was a shitcoin and worth zero.

I am sure that he actually believed in Ethereum but was just speculating about its price, but still, he was right and I was wrong. I never ever again will underestimate any coin in terms of price action.

That happens to the Bitcoin purists since they have a kind of love for BTC, they see BTC and nothing else. Then, as the saying goes, "only fools don't change" (But you're still a bit of a traitor :D) There are some altcoins that are good and can be complementary for Bitcoin. If Bitcoin is the king, it needs its queen too

Nothing wrong with being a purist, but the thing that put me off was how I started following the same path as Tone Vays, which I find to be an idiot, and that's not cool at all, and actually a display of pure ignorance.

Bitcoin isn't the wonder pill that solves every pressing problem, and probably never will be. Bitcoin is extremely good in doing one thing right, and that's more than enough. Gold for example hasn't much utility to it, yet it's worth $8 trillion. This shows that doing one thing right (store of value in Gold's case) is more than enough to gain value. Bitcoin can do that much better.

Look at how popular altcoin exchanges are. More demand for altcoins translates to more demand for Bitcoin, because that's what you need to trade them.

I don't know, I'm really confident about the whole market and I'm sure we will reach 1t+ marketcap in total, however why are you so sure about bitcoin? To me it seems quite possible that another coin will overtake bitcoin, in fact right now bitcoin is only surviving because it has the most pairs but it will be outdated imo. New cryptos and technology used is happening every day, it wont take long until a really big breakthrough happens and kills bitcoin and classic cryptos or perhaps big companies start launching their own coins and people start using them and bitcoin and others start to fall.

Yes, bitcoin could definitely exceed $1 Million but in the same time it could also go down to $1 so this are all speculation based on no real facts or reasons. In order for bitcoin to reach that price a huge mass adoption should be made and right now it doesn't seem like that's going to happen in the next 10 years.

In my opinion it doesn't mean much, and I think it play a minimal role, which none, to anything. I'm pretty sure we will go above 6,000 USD - We have just has an accumulation phase - we haven't had any selling pressure even though the big spike.

We have the whales who clearly want us to go to 6,000 USD and above due to the huge liquidity pool, where they have the opportunity to stop hunt and squeeze, and make become richer. Also the fact, that BTC will geta comeback in the media, which will attract retail investors, who have bought the top (5th wave).

Hereafter we will go below 6k again after we have been crusing around 6k for a while.

Yes, in 2011/2012 many people even laughed when I said that the price can rise above 100$ or even to 1000$. Many regret today that they laughed about it and wish they had bought at least for some bucks Bitcoins as the price was not even 10$.
I also underestimated Ethereum. I didn't expect such a price increase. Besides I had lost most of my eth coins on the shit exchange crypsy and never bought it back cheaply (also with my Bitcoin maximalist cap on  :P). In this way I also learned that altcoins should not be underestimated.  :D

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You're absolutely right about that. Every king needs a queen. It's really stupid I didn't think of that at the time.  :D ::)

The targeted year is not enough for Bitcoin to reach $1 Million IMO but if it is 20 -30 years i might agree with his predictions since $1 Million is too much. I just wondered how could they do their prediction that they could just say something out of the blue. Even if he is the PayPal Director or the CEO of a multi-billionaire business or whatever it is, this doesn't mean that their prediction might come true. No one could actually tell what would be the future so, i don't take much of that prediction, i'd rather focus myself on what is in the present.

Hmm, that is really a true talk, from 2010 till date, apart from the bull  which was not a natural move, as a result of adoption, bitcoin has been about to grow about 5000x and if not more than, and the adoption rate is still very low.

Let us now imagine another 10 years of Bitcoin more, with the adoption that keeps increasing on a daily basis, then there is no doubt that this Bitcoin will surely hit $1000000 in 10 years’ time. Well, let me not be too excited yet, we will all see this in 10 years’ time.

This is why my present BTC investment is tied to a 10 years plan. I am still trading with my investment, but the profit is what I take, while may capital still remains.

the price is $5500, and we're talking about reaching 1 million dollars? What would the market cap be like? I like bitcoin and I am very happy whenever the price increases, but there are predictions that are very exaggerated, 1 million dollars is something impossible to be reached, even if 50 years passed, I do not believe we will reach 1 million dollars. it's an impossible prediction


it's an impossible prediction

who cares about market cap? bitcoin is not a company to have a market capitalization, it is a currency and market cap is not even defined for currencies. so when you calculate something by multiplying two values you are coming up with a number that you choose to call market cap...
it is ok to not think $1 million is possible but you shouldn't think that way just because some arbitrary value (market cap) seems like a big number!

I'm sure in 2009 that $20,000 seemed impossible too. The kind of growth we've seen in the past, in % growth terms, is much greater than a rise to $1 million from here. Going from $.01 to $20K makes a $1 million look like a piece of cake!

The 2020s sounds perfectly reasonable to me. I think reaching the millions USD is very possible in the next bubble, assuming the global economy doesn't go down in flames first. It depends if we're limited to log growth or go vertical in S-curve fashion.

Hey I’ll agree with you it’s difficult if not impossible for bitcoin prices to reach those levels as stated by him. I have normally observed whenever bitcoin prices are rising such speculative statements are made, and then they fade away when it starts to fall. Also I have always advised never to buy bitcoins based on such speculative statements one should buy only if he believes in the technology, and can hodl it for the long term.

Speaking for Xapo mostly, I'm sure the remaining board of directors are seeing PayPal performing the most daily payments in near future.

Conquering PayPal requires throughput, requires mass markets. Bitcoin should focus on it's Achilles' heel and there are many. Cross border payments to mention. Financial privacy, of course.

I think bitcoin is already closing some gaps. I wouldn't call it Achille's heel though, there are lots of crypto that is faster than bitcoin if we are going to compare them, however, is the most trusted so regardless if there is some issues with fees or the speed more people will still used bitcoin for cross border payments.

In terms of varied features there were more altcoins that are better than bitcoin as stated in the above quote. In terms of liquidity bitcoin takes the lead, and this makes bitcoin to be the much used one than many other cryptocurrencies with advancements. Already there are few coins created by banks were getting used for transaction within country and bitcoin for cross border transactions.

Exceeding $1 Million will be possible given a time span and I think bitcoin will sure need a lot of it in the future before it can make a possible $1 million dollar and in 7-10 years might be enough to get that pace and considering the bear markets, bubble, and Dips it takes there is still Bull market, To the Moon and Skyrocket up with the price that many Holders are waiting so much, But if the price of bitcoin would consider being at a million of price many will take a hard time earning, or entering with that kind of value, But I guess that will be a regret for those not holding anymore on that given time, But the possibilities are there and learning to wait is sure is rewarding with this kind of Currency.

If this thing is true, then what would be the next basis of rich people because for sure everyone will have their first million easily. This is too good to be true, i know bitcoin is a huge success but the million price will not happen in the next 10years, Paypal might too exaggerated for this prediction.

It is not that I am being biased in my judgment or because of the interest I have in BTC, I also have some good altcoins I have invested my money and time in but none of them has been able to meet up to the standard of Bitcoin, those altcoins are just being over hyped and there is nothing absolutely new they have added to the system, other than using it as means of raising funds for their project.

Before the invention of BTC, if they were so good, why did they not come up with an idea and they had to hide under the shadow of Bitcoin, let us leave matter where it is and be sincere to ourselves, few of these altcoins are the ones with real products, many of them are just shadows of themselves.

Bitcoin surged to $ 1 million for the next 7-10 years, I find it hard to believe because the price of $ 1 million is too high for one bitcoin.

Imagens bitcoins go to $1 million, and then bitcoins have a bloody red week where it drops 20% we have seen that before, but here you would have lost $200.000 for each bitcoins you own in just one week.
Will, you still be holding  bitcoins when we get near 1m and who will be buying when we get near one million?

Personally I think we will get to a million one day and hopefully, the price will be more stable than it is now.

In principle, I agree with Xapo and his assumption that Bitcoin can cost more than 1 million dollars and he is not the only one who thinks that it is quite possible. But if this happens, then definitely not in the next few years, because such growth requires much more time.

There are so many factors that would work against this, government, banks, dumping etc, except there are no more BTC supplies in the market, that value is quite not real to me for BTC to achieve, and Bitcoin does not even have to get to that value to be known for its performance.

If bitcoin decides to remain on this value, I would still be satisfied because the benefits of having it as a payment means outweighs benefit of using it as investment, many of us are always targeting this unrealistic value because of our investment, in 7 years’ time, the only value I feel is realistic is maximum of $200,000.