Bitcoin Forum

Interesting to see the golden cross yesterday and the correlation between daily transactions and current price, which has just gone over 1M transactions per day for the first time. The last time it was near this high was when prices where over 10,000 USD. Now it is showing the price lagging behind the usage.

Also seems to be far more optimism in general all around the industry.

Don't want to necessarily call it but to me it seems like we are in for a nice gentle bull run all the way back to record levels.

My prediction for what its worth is 6K within the next few days, 8K within the next month and then breaking the important 10K barrier within 3 months.

Long term i'm still thinking 48K by 2022.

I have been a hodlr since 2015 with a modest holding so i do have a vested interest, not trying to hype it but just putting my opinion forward for what its worth, based on my belief in crypto as the new era in digital money and store of value.

So.. more or less a 50% increase in a month or so? A little bit too optimistic I think. I don't think we'll reach those prices in such a short timespan. But then again, we're talking about bitcoin. 🤷 Time will tell.

Was quite a bit skeptic about price surges for the wee part of this day but upon checking tx/s alongside the 'golden cross' I'm somewhat baffled. True that the last time the network has been this active is already a long time now, Q3 2017 onwards to be exact, and it seems that not only the price has been stimulated but also the usage as evidenced by a lot of transactions. If this continues, we might see ourselves taking on $6000 before May ends and push forward to higher highs of 2019, perhaps $10k by the end of the year.

Well, hitting one million transactions is a very sudden thing as well. I believe only recently people were celebrating 400k transactions! If people doubled active usage of Bitcoin, it seems possible for the price to double fast as well. I agree that it sounds unbelievable, though, given that Bitcoin is still failing to reach even $6k price, whereas previously it was more or less stuck between 6k-7k for months.

Yeah when it comes to bitcoin the price is not predictable but as the ops said it just his own speculations, this recent increase in the volume of transactions above 1million per day is an indication that we are gradually moving into another era of a new bull run. But achieving such price of 8k within next month is unrealistic but let just keep hoping.

Well it's good to find out that the average number of transactions per day has increased over the time but this doesn't necessarily mean that bitcoin's price will definitely increase.
We can also get a clear understanding if we compare the number of unconfirmed transactions between now and when the number of transactions had increased during the previous bull run.
The current rate of unconfirmed transactions is 12k . I wonder how much it was in the previous bull run. I did it google it but in vain.
Could somebody tell me how to find the number of unconfirmed transactions for a specific period of time.

You can use this site to see it represented in a graph: https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#1,all. You can select a small area to zoom in on just that area to make it easier to pull out the exact data you want.

The highest number of unconfirmed transaction since this site starting tracking was on May 20th 2017, at 188,000. Corresponding price at this time was only around $2,000.
The highest number of unconfirmed transaction during the bull run was on December 8th 2017, at 185,000. Corresponding price at this time was around $17,000.

You can also use this chart which shows very similar (but not exactly the same) data - https://www.blockchain.com/en/charts/mempool-count?timespan=all.

I concur. Liquidity is rising among all exchanges and new records(Lightning network included) are being created regularly these days which is great to witness. I honestly did not expect Bitcoin to get so close to the $6k mark so quickly which is why I feel that $10k is totally possible by the end of the year.

Pure hodlers wont care much about the prices.
My guess is you are also into trading.

8k, 10k or 48k. It doesnt matter.
We need to push merchants into selling their products by means of bitcoin as payment options.
The problem is they are all creating their own coins.
We wont see any bull run again if this continues. There must be only one currency in the online market that is used and that is only bitcoin.
Dividing it too many will just ruin all that is started.

We know that online selling is booming now. The problem is they are still COD or just credit cards as means of payment. It must be changed.

$10,000 is of possibility and we're almost 60% to it which makes it likely because we just saw on how bitcoin moved from the lowest up to another good support level.

But just like the all time high days, I've experienced some delays of confirmation although I paid quite good fee with it. I'm worried about that situation agan that when the price goes up, fees would increase unexpectedly and long confirmation would probably exist again though there's already lightning network but it hasn't fully implemented.

The big test is $5600, if we can slice it like butter then $6k will be that easy, imho.

But I don't think we can reach $6k in just couple of days. One week tops and the we will see where it goes. I would agree that we are in the bull zone already, but I don't want to under estimate the bears, they might be exhausted but it seems that are not giving up that easy.

Pure hodlers, as you put it, they absolutely care about the price, because the fluctuations in the price of Bitcoin allow them to increase their holdings. It's almost a waste of an opportunity if you don't utilize Bitcoin's fluctuations.

Most hodlers (me included) have two different stacks of coins--the largest stack is obviously the one people hodl, where the smaller stack is one people allow themselves to speculate with.

To add, I have seen people consider themselves 'true' hodlers and pretend that they don't care about the price, but during the 2018 correction most of these 'hodlers' were the loudest bull run preachers....

Yes, I am also noticing the transaction volume picking up at exchanges, and that the network usage is at all-time highs. This is very bullish if we are to connect the BTC price to actual usage. Combined with technical indicators, I firmly believe we are in a new bull market.

The reality is that, everyone is investing crypto because of its price and for the seek that we could generate more money for here. Even that you are a long term crypto holder or we might say "true holder" is still looking to have a better price.
This is how we play for the market, we are still alive cause we know that or believe that price may soar high again and taking into chances that we could be profitable at that time. Thus, PRICE is really matter in all investment.

There's a lot of hate for people who do stuff like playing the market on here, or at least from what I can gather. The hodl-no-matter-what crowd has a relatively large voice, but I feel like a lot of people miss the fact that you can gain a lot of Bitcoin by exploiting the changes that happen in the market. Of course, that's more situational and not something that everyone can do effectively, but it's something that I think a lot of people miss. Maybe I'm just not understanding the priorities of the different segments of the community anymore.

Taking advantage of the market seems like it should be the standard, but I don't know. It seems like a contentious issue now.

Be careful what you wish for. +90% of the merchants accept Bitcoin through a payment gateway, which means that one way or another, these coins will end up on the market because they need to pay out merchants in fiat. The only way I can see it become long term viable is that merchants skip the payment gateways and accept Bitcoin directly and use it to stock up their shelves.

In other words, coins need to circulate in an economy where they are used as money, and not be dumped on a spot market that severely lacks liquidity. BitPay did over $1 billion in transactions last year, that's a serious amount of liquidity they have taken out of the spot market. This is only BitPay. There are many more payment gateways in the world.

The volume is getting high these days and it's a positive thing for holders like us. As we see the improvement of bitcoin each day, we could really say that bitcoin is reaching a higher price which may lead to the bull run. We can't conclude but we can predict since the changes in the market are really visible.

The relationship between price and transactions makes sense.  Since for the price increase a transaction is necessary, so if we have a large number of transactions the trend is that we have a high or low.

If you were a holder from 2015, you will know bitcoin price chart at the time. There is a correlation of prices for 2015 and 2019, the appearance of gold crosses is only a good signal. I believe in the assumption that we still have a price correction to $ 3k before entering the bull run completely.

It is too early to talk about bull run, $ 6k psychological barrier is not as easy to overcome as you think. Although I'm also very optimistic about bitcoin, I don't think we can end this year for over $ 8k.

If you are a holder since 2015, I can assume then that the big jump of 2017 happened for you without enough skill to sell at least a fraction of your bitcoins, perhaps believing that the price would grow well beyond the 20K barrier.

Therefore, I think I should not be too enthusiastic about your predictions, unless you prove that you were able to predict this great fall observed throughout 2019.

sorry to disappoint you but what you are describing here is not a bull run specially at this point, this is a bubble you are expecting and because of that, it will not happen. the $10k in 3 months is more than 300% rise and in such a short time we can not reach it.
you are also forgetting that this current state is the INITIAL reversal stage where price slowly recovers from the 1 year long drop and market trends is switching from bear to bull. so it is bound to be slower.

Yes you are correct, like most people at the time i knew things were getting out of hand and growing too quick in late 2017; as they say once your taxi driver asks you about bitcoin and where they can get some you know its time to get out! But accurately predicting the top is completely impossible, i thought at 12K it was getting fairly near and then of course we went all the way to 20K. At this point when it dropped a bit i thought maybe it would correct back to 14K and then climb back up again. Hindsight is always great but anyone who says they could have called the top and the subsequent year long fall from grace is obviously deluded.

Would be nice to think i could have sold 50 coins at this point and then bought them back in December for a cool 850K profit but you should never dwell on what could have been its what is going to happen that's important.

My strategy has always been a long term holder as i ultimately believe in the concept, of course its probably just as likely to correct to 3K as it is to break 6K within a few weeks but that's the fun of crypto investing.

If i wanted as easy ride i would hold coca-cola shares or invest in government bonds.

The big correction was all of last year IMO.

Now banks and stock markets are listing cryptos I think it's gona explode.

With bank entry the trend is yes, but practically any good reason drives the price and consequently the transactions since these are used to move

That's an useful site. Bookmarking it for future reference. Thanks.

I am the one who answers the question on the topic.  For both the low and the high the transactions remained high.

I think that the correlation should be very obvious. Since the majority of transactions are to and from exchanges, it is intuitive to think that the level of transactions as well as general economic activity within the bitcoin network will increase as trading volume and prices increase in a bull market.

However, is this figure necessarily an indicator for the future? That's not something that's so obvious imho.

It might indicate what stage of the market cycle we are at in terms of bitcoin's valuation, but it doesn't guarantee anything in terms of gains. After all, at the end of the day, on chain activity is completely independent from prices, which is one of the reasons why bitcoin is decentralised in the first place.

Exactly. At the height of the last bull run, many exchanges were not batching their withdrawals, which resulted in many more transactions than were required. Now that the large exchanges are all batching, many thousands of transactions have been condensed in to a few hundred, which obviously has a huge effect on how full the mempool is. As Lightning Network becomes ever more popular, more transactions will disappear out of the mempool as they move to utilizing LN. And remembering of course that 20-25% of bitcoin transactions are currently due to VeriBlock.

There are too many factors at play here to make any firm link between transaction volume and price.

Exactly, I can simply send a transaction to someone else and this directly does not influence anything, and maybe not even indirectly. So that high numbers of transactions influence the price is a mistake.