Bitcoin Forum

Between 17th November 2017 and 17th December 2017 the price of Bitcoin rose from around $7400 to $19300 (according to CMC)

Since that period when almost the whole market was riding high it came back down and hovered around £3000 for a long time. Now finding stability Bitcoin is around $5500 mark.

What next for Bitcoin? What are the market factors needed in pushing for another bull run or mass buying spree?

it has not found any stability around $5500 market, this price is just a passing level on the way up above the $6k resistance. the "stability" was the prior 5 months when price was stuck in the $3k range and everyone has been accumulating bitcoin at a cheap price. now we are just rising...

as for the next "big jump up" like 2017 it will only happen during the end when we are already in another bubble possibly this time somewhere around $70,000 to $100,000

Unless some big entity again are ready to pour their money on the market to push the price further, I don't see a dramatic rise in a 4 week span.

For me it's better to see the price slowly gaining, as compare to a massive spike that we have seen before the end of 2017. For sure when the price goes to the moon again we will see another bubble, which in a sense we doesn't want to see at this point.

but the price in the past 10 years didn't rise from zero to $20000 because of some big entity pouring money in! instead it went up because of the same demand that has existed in the market and still does.
i do prefer the slow rises too because it builds up a much more solid support than a big spike does but when we are under priced we should always expect the big jumps when they let go of the pressure to keep it down.

I do not think it is realistic to expect the same thing to happen again, in the identical manner. 2017 was a specific year, and it followed after halving 2016, also in expectation of bitcoin futures for which most did not actually know what is it actually. It was an ideal combination for bull run, and media is added oil to that fire creating a huge FOMO effect.

https://www.cryptocointrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/BTC-Halvenings-4.png
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5134686.0

If you look at above chart it is easy to see that there is a fairly regular pattern which shows that we are currently in the accumulation phase, and we will soon be entering a period of one year before halving. I say few times before that time for next big bull run should be expected in 2021, probably a 1 or 1.5 year after halving. But that does not mean that 2019 or 2020 should be considered boring years, the price is likely to grow steadily before next bull run.

We might see that 4-week surge again once the bull market finally consolidates and prices begin to skyrocket.

We haven't seen any type of consolidation around that number so I'd hardly call it a "stable" mark. The period of stability was predominant around the 3.9k which lasted for a bit over a month before the last massive spike in the price.

Perhaps, large sums of smart money entering the cryptosphere, triggering a pump in the prices which results in a massive wave of FOMO? Or maybe the bulls will take over the market and start pumping the prices to attract FOMO buyers? Either way, can you spot the common denominator? Well, we need that if we want to see a bull run as big as the last one.

I hope it never happens again that intensely. Ultimately it didn't do the majority any good.

What we don't need is another ejaculation followed by an endless hangover in the near future. The more intense the spurt, the longer it takes to regenerate. I'd prefer the odd twitch of life followed by back to steadiness until post halving.

However I suspect there are more people poised to jump in if there's a sign things are going to kick off than there were in 2017 so it's a futile wish.

That rise was due to CBoE and CME offering bitcoin future contracts. So there's a lot of irrational buyers and FOMO was real. But this time, we don't have that kind of news to bring the market to such sudden price increase. And echo the sentiments that we don't want to see that happen again. Obviously we wanted the price to go up but not like that though, it's scary because it will be followed by another massive dump for sure.

It's a pretty inelastic supply that occasionally gets walloped by bursts of excitement. Further booms and busts are effectively baked in to Bitcoin's nature and human psychology.

The interesting thing is when does it level out? Does it need to be bigger than gold? I'd say BTC is vastly more useful so it would need to keep swelling beyond that until saturation had been reached to have a chance of getting beyond this phase.

That I agree with, yes the $3000 mark that Bitcoin was at for many months must have been the real stability point in recent times.

I do not see Bitcoin rising to that level of $70,000 to $100,000 in the next bubble, that is way too much an over-estimation in my opinion.

It's totally possible. No idea how likely it is.

I think it's largely going to depend on whether the on ramps up their game. If there is a better and bigger selection of avenues, the real biggie being a significant legacy trading platform, then that type of price level is not pie in the sky.

If we're stuck with the same old creaking exchanges and futures continue to grow then it's a different matter.

Those 4 weeks (well around 6 weeks) at the end of 2017 were immense. It showed the potential and scope for Bitcoin and other crypto alongside the volatility.

I agree, we definitely do not want to see mindless spikes reaching beyond the $19k mark but a gradual increase with plenty of assurance through stability is the preferred route.

The good thing about these crazy spikes is that you can short them. In most cases what goes up hard comes down hard, so the odds do favor a short in that regard. It happens regardless of what our opinion is, so why not utilize these opportunities the best we can? Accumulating more Bitcoin is my main priority, and these crazy market movements are perfect for that.

$6000 is what I want to see be broken or reject our current rally. We're so close that it's difficult to say something about the direction. If we do break it confidently, I'll open a long position and ride it out. If not, then I'm fine with my current short. In the end, we're either right or wrong, but it's important to put your money where your mouth is. We have way too many empty talkers here not doing what they believe in.

We can say that we are in the bull run so far the far is intendedly spiking in a manner of waves it is really unpredictable and relying on past events may not outline to the one we have now, But I really think that we can have another spike just like it did when the price go to $5800 mark But in my opinion it will likely to fall in August or the month of September maybe? But for now, the price is resisting going to the $6000 USD so that was the month we can have a good trading price for bitcoin.

The same drive can push it up to those values. People that are skeptic about it are witnessing that the trust is still there and is growing, it will give them the convince to step into bitcoin.

Same as before, the year after the next halving. Pay attention to the past, it usually repeats for the same reasons.

I never took those types of charts seriously, things are more complicated than that.

The change in -+ is not covered by the charts corectly since it cannot forecast the future correctly otherwise everybody would be buying and selling at the right times.

I wish I knew when the next bull run would be but there is no way of knowing.

You just answered your own question why everyone doesn't buy and sell at the same time, they don't believe in the charts or the reasoning behind why they act like they do around the halvings. It's all economics though, less new supply equals higher price. The only way this cycle stops is if the demand for bitcoin crashes - which could happen.

There are really patterns to be followed and if we are really on accumulation phase as what chart tells then I guess it's better to go get some bags by now rather than just see it in plain sight or wait for an ATH again this year.

I'd prefer doing some TA because somehow it tells decision and behaviour of the market, indeed if halving is nearing price is ridiculously increasing better to believe that way.

Loading bags seems like a good idea, but for me it's after Tuesday and China's mining decision deadline.

FOMO does play a big part in the reasons why any crypto jumps and spikes and there are other factors which play their part in dramatic falls in prices too. Is it a common denominator in all instances of spikes in all crypto prices? I doubt it.

If only there was a way to confidently forecast when the next 4-6 weeks bull run would be

 ;D

It is really hard to predict and speculate when will be the next bull run in the Bitcoin's market. However, we just have to make sure to keep some of your coins in our wallet and monitor the price as there's the least chance of us having that bull run again. Being optimistic is nice. However, it would give us a big heartbreak as well so you have to make sure to be ready and be passionate about waiting for the right moment.

It everything will be fine in the coming days but not totally confident enough to have a steady uptrend motion cause it really never happens.
Keeping positive on the market will help us to stay in calm of what ever it happens by the next days and to be prepared all the time.

It is not necessarily a futile wish, maybe majority of investors learned their lesson last time when the 2017 peak prices occured.

I also hope we do not see an intense spike like that again but the way some investors still behave and the way FOMO plays a part for some people - it might be inevitable.

Or unless many or all of us small players will re enter the market together as many of us are afraid from what did 2018 failure brings us
Agreed on that,its better to see the small by small growth but constant than what we had in 2017 that only last for short period of time,lets not look for fast pump instead lets aim for small but continues growth

Yes seeing the price go so high and so fast was a strange phenomenon because people were waiting for the inevitable dump to follow and the fear of losing the investment.

Thankfully the massive spike of December 2017 was a one-off. It has not re-occurred since.

It's impossible to predict when we will have the next 4 weeks of bulls like in late 2017, but a good guess will be when the exchanges can get enough bitcoins for their customers, I guess it will be in 2020 or 2021 and it cut bring bitcoins above 100k

We can't predict the market for now and for we don't need that kind of scenario anymore, last time when the price fall down hard a lot of people losing the trust and a lot of them losing money, we need bitcoin to grow slowly but steady, and in order to make the price go high we need more adoption and more transaction volume

those huge spikes are always a one time thing during their own cycle that is why people have started talking so much about these so called "cycles of bitcoin" lately. we keep seeing them repeated in a similar fashion with a big boom near the end like what we had in 2017 with $20k, in 2013 with $1200 and in ~2010 with $20 and so on.
if we keep the same cycles true we can see $100k this time in less than 1.5 year from now.

Slow and steady wins the race.
It will be good if it keeps increasing in a slow and steady manner. More people will come that way.
Most people look for steady return and only a few looks for a boom irrespective of how much risk is involved in it.
Mass adoption will gradually come up with time.

Well i think this will happen next year and we will have a bull run before halving on my opinion. I know people who buy on last bull run want to have faster a bull run so they can make a profit if they still hold, but now we have only step by step grow.

Who knows when the actual levelling out will be. It all depends on perception. Some would use gold as the benchmark, others maybe platinum or a fiat currency.

Those bursts of excitement you mention are the real cause of the whole yo-yo effect which fluctuates the price from less than $7000 one day to around $20,000 within a month then back down to $3000 a short while after that.

I guess we will never see something that quick ever again. It could totally happen if we can break some barriers right away because the resistance is always strongest closer you are so if you can break the first 2-3 resistance in a big whoop then the next resistance is much simpler to break and the next one is even simpler so if you rush going up it is becoming easier and easier.

However, people realized one thing that if you go up that quickly the resistance becomes easy however support becomes non-existing as well which makes price fall much quicker as well. So, instead of going high fastly and then going down fastly as well they go up slow by slow but they do not go down fast anymore which makes us stay at current prices much better and go higher with some support with us.

Same factors why the push happened on 2017.

The difference is, 2017 is pure of hype and successfully attract even those who aren't know crypto well. Year later, price crashed to unexpected bottom coming from a new ATH.

It's quite difficult to experienced again those big hype unless a one big push will initiate by the whales to regain people's confidence. What those left here are crypto enthusiuast prior to new ATH and some of the new players disappear.

Now rather than think of another big thing in BTC, just take advantage of the current happenings. Sooner or later that expectation by majority will surely happen again. Just give it a time.

Eventually sure, I think Bitcoin will be reaching $50k, $75k even $100K but maybe not during the next bubble and spike.

Counter those spikes with any regulation that various governmental agencies might be pushing through as legislation in future - then maybe the price will not go as high as we hope.

Experience is the greatest teacher, if not for the last experienced, we would probably have had like 3 consecutive bull run this year lol, and many people would have been disappointed and probably leave the crypto space finally.

That last Bull run was something else, it happened because people were just getting use to the market and the idea of using it as investment since it was the first time they will see very high spike. Right now, people would not ever fall for FOMO again, and that is why it may take a little time for us to see bitcoin ATH again, but there will always be increase through the services that bitcoin brought to our system.

  Some governments does not shown any interest on bitcoin, instead they taking it illicitly and there is no doubt why bitcoin has grown rapidly due of slow adoptation and negative determination in the field. The current market phase has started to fill out the desirable peak and it may be a good innovation to be consistent with our determination on engaging positivity to claim another bull trend for this year.

That’s a question you should never bother asking cause nobody here has the answer to that question . It’s up to you to decide for yourself whether you’re ready to take the risk of Hodl if you can . All of us that were able to make profit from that bull run never expected that to happen. We all thought there was never going to be anything as that, but it happened.

It’s all about being able to take the risk and not everyone can take such risks, there are people who can’t take the risk. You don’t know what’s going to be the outcome of  it, you’re just taking the risk and hoping that you get something out of it and also ready at the same time in case there happens to be the opposite.

In your case it could well be a case of long term holding that suits you.

If you make a short term gain because of a spike then great but  you seem content with the option to sell or hold for the long term. Not all investors are that patient, many try to limit losses or maximise gains and in that process make errors.

This.

First commenter answered perfectly.

Price will continue going up until it reaches a peak, probably in a couple years, and the last few weeks of the peak will be like the last few weeks of the last peak, or any other bitcoin boom in the past, where its got a few weeks of crazy gains before crashing. Expect it to come sometime in 2021 probably.

I don’t know about a 4 week timescale but bitcoin definitely has at least one parabolic rise left before it becomes a more stable store of value (which obviously comes with maturity).

Yes and you are quite right. A fast volatile increase for me is not guaranteed. This was what happened in 2017 before the crash and I have learnt my lesson on that, won't allow for a second mistake  ;D.

I prefer to see a steady and easy adding up in price and this is sustainable. Any over rating increase will spake the past for me.  :o

Why do you think the price of Bitcoin will fall in August/September?

Maybe you are right and that will happen but what makes you say that? Is it a gut feeling or more from previous annuals graphs showing those statistics?

Perhaps, if the price can increase slowly but surely, it will help people to make a nice strategy to buy and sell bitcoin, and they don't panic to see the price jumps too fast. That will make people confuse to place the order, and I am sure that many people will make a wrong decision related to placing the order.

I already saw a moment in 2017 ago which shows to me that many of my friends already selling bitcoin too fast because they are not expecting to see bitcoin price can jump to the highest price. They are regret to sell to quick because they are panic and they don't want to miss the chance to sell bitcoin.

People are probably sceptical about those investors that buy in bulk with the aim of playing the pumping and dumping game.

I wondered too what would be the next biggest entity that would push the price again through the next ATH. Although we are in a bullish market yet it is not yet too bullish since there is a big Bitcoin halving that i guess most whales are waiting to set in and then BAAMs welcome to the new ATH.
Maybe Bitcoin would touch the new ATH at $30k to $40k or even more, idk yet but let's not bring all our hopes in there since it is just a speculative price.

I think those patterns are not fixed for all crypto. There is no single defining pattern, it cannot be predicted.

The "halving" calculations are probably one of the least accurate theories out there.

We are going to still experiencing what happened in 2017 before end of 2020. Many speculators are saying bitcoin is heading towards $50,000 in the next boom and I do agree with them and we just need a trigger that will cause that to happen.

it's just his speculation, precisely if we are getting closer to halving then demand will increase that fact that I saw before. so in my opinion mid-year until the end of the year, maybe the price will go up. we might not see price movements like a 4-month boom like 2017, but at least prices will rise high enough at the end of the year

Yes, those charts are not accepted as credible by many people.

In all economic forecasts the one I think is the most far-fetched and hard to believe is the theory behind "halvings".

In short it is a cycle, the price goes up and the price goes down - to make profit it is all about timings

Hopefully that will be the trend before the entire 2019 ends, but who knows time still ticking and yet price growth really brought challenges for the past days. The situation still remains unpredictable and so hard for the price to increase faster, it's better slow than so quick to go down. Rising price felt so exciting when we see it growing eventually as we wake up with brighter and greener blockfolio.

I think that it is impossible to see a similar bull run like the one that we did in 2017.
In my opinion, there are a lot of individuals that are out of the market right now so we cannot see a huge inflow of money in the market as we experiences in late 2017. If we can't push the mass adoption to the next level then I am afraid that the bull run is not going to come.

I think you will be wasting your time if you try to buy and sell according to graph charts and "patterns".

There is no scientific pattern to follow. It is simply trading, it is simply buying and selling at the right times.

I think getting people on the road and helping them join is more important than going that quickly. If you go to 20 thousand dollars tomorrow then many people will miss out on the increases and they will probably just watch us sell bitcoin for a lot of money while they themselves not get anything in return.

Nonetheless, if you do it slowly and go to 20 thousand dollars in 5 months instead of one month then there will be more people that join us on the road and profit from it. The more people there is that join us the less chance we will drop to lower prices once again. When there is only a few people that hold bitcoin on profits they will sell and we will drop quickly because it takes only a few to destroy the whole market. However if there are thousands of people profiting from it then only a few selling wouldn't hurt the market.

I don't think there is going to be any bull run in the shortest possible time so it would not be advisable to really wait on it. Just ride with the market as it grows and make moderates profits out of the volatility that comes every now and then. i mean the pumps and dumps.

Well for me, I don’t see Bull run, all I see is a slow walk of bitcoin to its ATH, the time of speedy increase in price is long gone, the other one happened because that was the first of its kind and the first time every one of us will see that, which we contributed in the increase because of the way we FOMO.

Right now, we can see how people don’t respond to FOMO every time the bulls tried charging, the same type of spike that happened on the 1st of April this year is very similar to the one that happened when BTC increased to about $7k in the last spike before the bull started from there and people responded to its FOMO, but we can see now that not many people responded to this one because they would rather take their time now to be investing through proper analysis.

Well it has hit $6000 at the moment. Whether it will fall in August or September remains  to be seen. What do you think the market conditions are for it edging -+ in nominal incremental amounts?

Hmm, I can pick that word maturity out there, I think this maturity path is what bitcoin has been following in its recent price movement, and probably why we are beginning to experience slow but steady increase in this price of bitcoin, and I want to believe that this matured way is the way it will stylishly use to rich its ATH.

I think the last bull run actually took 7 consecutive weeks as against the 4 weeks op mentioned. Do we really need to wish for that sharp increase again, this sharp increase is what kept us in the net of the bears for this long. If we go through that path again, the market might not recover this fast again.

If it does happen, do you think it will happen in this year?

Very soon man, just endure throughout this year, and you will begin to see that kind of growth in the price of bitcoin in 2020, though I am not sure about this but if we see a bull run this year without any FUD stopping the growth we should experience, then I think we are going to see a spike in the price of coin next year, the spike will be so massive that we might see bitcoin at $100,000 or much more, the work we all have to do currently is to keep talking about the wonders of the crypto world and the bull run coming soon.