Bitcoin Forum

My prediction is Bitcoin will be quiet steady for today. I expect the price might fall down a bit, do not expect any drastic movement in price to go up, because there is quite an elastic supply for 2.5k bitcoins.

https://i.ibb.co/n0FYkCC/btc2-5k.png
https://i.ibb.co/Ks1JNHB/btc5k.png

The only thing is that it is very difficult to predict if a bullish movement will happen, because if suddenly a whale enters to buy ???
 you do not have that included in the prediction.

I quote you so we can see the images, it seems like there has been a massive selloff in the last few hours, after hitting $9.100 bitcoins are now down on $8200

Basing things in charts couldn't predict the future of Bitcoin.
The market s unpredictable and sudden changes are occuring without our control.
There are whales who could manipulate the prices in one move and there will be dumpers who will do panic selling so no matter how we predict things, prices will still remain unpredictable.

Yes, guys, you are all very correct. It all depends on the big gamers.

But we can predict several things within some probability area.

1. The volume
2. Log return


If we have demand and supply analysis, then we can as well predict how the market will react if big players jump into the market. Not always, big buying causes the price to go up, because it all depends on market demand and supply.


If you will follow my thread, you will be able to see that sometimes (despite) large volume, prices do not go up or down in a drastic way.


Here is new chart:



See, the supply curve is different than yesterday. The slope is different, the value of the slope is bigger. It means suppliers are optimistic about Bitcoin price to go up, so they have a lower interest to sell it at the price, which was yesterday at the same time. The question is how demand will react.


Note the balances can change anytime.

https://i.imgur.com/5knHDz9.png

Current mid-term mood is a fight for 10k USD. This is the psychological price. If demand increases at 10k and supply stays the same, we will have new high level prices. But I think this period won't last very long, because demand is very elastic bellow 10k.

Will you consider about the halving of bitcoin next year will ont directly change the trader or seller and buyer's opnions about bitcoin?  As far as i know the effect that caused by the halving must have happened before it was even done. Just called that as a long term fundamental impact to the bitcoin.
With that news and the market will able to press the holders to keep their all of their bitcoin for a while.

Sorry, I am not a native English speaker. Could you simplify your question, please?

Your graph shows values derived from a specific market.. but you are not saying what market and where the data are sourced from. If this is information pulled from 1 or 2 specific exchanges from a specific region or country, then it is not applicable to a global market.

Bitcoin is bought and sold from exchanges the world over and also on OTC platforms, so to get a true reflection of the price and global supply and demand, you will have to source from a very wide variety of data sources.  ;)

You willing to share your source data for these graphs?  ???

It is really hard to predict the price movement of crypto ,
We couldn't really be sure what would happen next because of the huge volume,
People do what they want so we couldn't expect anything to be the same as what we think .

Hi, sure it's grabbed from one of the biggest exchange. I am aware it's not completely relevant, however I did analysis on other markets and supply and demand are pretty much at the same level as this sample.

strongly agree, it's not easy to predict the movements of bitcoin. there have been many who predict from ordinary people to those who really know about bitcoin, but since the beginning of 2018, all predictions have nothing to approach, especially true. it occurred to me whether there was no big broker playing too, this could change according to his will even though he might also miss?

Bitcoin mining can at least be predicted through charts, but the changes in the demand for bitcoin is hard to predict. This is the reason why it's hard to make prediction on bitcoin price. Just like this year where the demand increases. Considering that huge bitcoin holders are out there to manipulate the market a bit.

In Bitcoin market it is hard to believe that supply will remain constant. There are many sellers who have pre-determined price level for sale. So we can't say once we reach $10,000, it will surely gonna pump. What if I bought Bitcoin at $17000 last year, why would my sale become perfectly inelastic at levels above $10000?

 Both demand and supply are elastic in case of Bitcoin market and direction of chart depends upon which one is high at any particular price.

Don't you just love threads like these? Bitcoin eats them up, chews them and spits them out faster than it takes to build those charts and draft this post. Because, you know, Bitcoin has been doing this for as long as anyone remembers.

To be fair though, there was an 8-hour of relative quiet, the most stable in weeks, during Asian trading times. And then I'm still not sure what happened to pipe things up to 9k before all those profit taking orders crashed the line.

Weekend's approaching. Always the busy period for BTC.

On what basis this prediction is made, making bitcoin market movements and value changes is really hard and even if you are able to take in all the factors and bring out a semi accurate analysis, it will still be not similar to what might happen, the predictions that are made don't take in consideration the factor of bull runs that might accrue or a big volume of people buying if the price goes up, and a supply increase if the price goes down which is when most people start considering cashing .

We really can't predict the future movement of Bitcoin even if we record and track its previous movements. There are events like halving in the future which could affect its value but we couldn't speculate the exact price of it in the future. Despite considering a lot of factors which could affect the price, there's no one who could speculate the exact value and path of Bitcoin.

https://i.imgur.com/hxnB59j.png


Why bitcoin is worth less than yesterday? Because demand shifted left. Supply is still stable.

For all of you who doubt: I am not a messiah, but current data shows current mood and current expectations.

Currently, it seems BTC will explode once it reaches 10k. It might get another 5k to 15k just one day. This is the current situation, once again.

But make sure, I'll let you know if there are any changes. I keep monitoring.

I was impressed with your effort on making some updates.I do love TA's when it comes to Bitcoins price but on the topic title
saying that btc doesn't change price which isn't right at all.We should say atleast that the price is moving sideways yet price is always been volatile.
This is my first time on seeing the demand and supply. Where you do base it off?

I and my team both analyze the chart and volume of the BTC. One thing I need to say is that the price of BTC will be reduced in the future. It will now sideway for 2-3 days, and then its price will continue to be adjusted again.
This is a good time for us to order Long on margin trading.

right, even though there are many developments nowadays and many people predict that bitcoin will soar later, but that is no guarantee. like the time in 2018, where at the end of that year many price predictions will rise, but all are wrong

Of course it will happen, it is not possible prices will continue to rise, its not possible demand will continue to rise. supply will definitely go up, because the crypto market is filled with many traders and investors, they will definitely sell when they see high prices on the market. price reductions will occur but not in large percent #IMO

Friends were asking often, why BTC doesn't change the price when everyone expected it should. It would stay within some range. The answer is in the demand and supply ratio. So I went calculating to see what are ratios and I found interesting results, which I plotted to graph and may or may not help to other investors. I use data from one of the biggest exchanges, but programmed stuff to have an image as it has now.

   Is is just because of you think so or there is some calculation or something like that? Where is actual analysis?
I pressed "I do not care" in voting, because of this sort of predictions doesn't look trustworthy for now. I think you need to work on it more to make it attractive and based on facts and correct calculations.

https://i.imgur.com/HvZbvFa.png

As you can see, curves are about the same same as two days ago. Nothing much is happening. We have an elastic supply and an elastic demand up to 10 k. The demand curve has a bigger value of slope in short scale. So, we can say there is a higher demand for bitcoin right now. But it should not affect the price a lot.

Note: This is the current image. In one hour anything can be changed.

even your predictions do not match reality, we can see if in the past few days bitcoin has fallen and now we are seeing it rise again, right what many people say in this forum that it is difficult to predict the price of bitcoin.

Your prediction were right though and the price  indeed fell second day after your prediction, but normally, I didn’t need a prediction to know the price was going to fall dip because this has been happening like that when bitcoin surges. It makes it easy for me to be able to trade but I don’t know how long it will keep up with this pattern because I am sure it will not always follow.

This is why I sold when the price got very close to $9k and this dip was my new entry point.I believe from this dip, it should a take us close to $9800 in some weeks’ time before correcting again, and maybe the finally stop would be $11500 for the month of JUNE.

Calculations are correct and the results are as they are. Within some confidence level, I can let you know what price range we can expect, applying supply and demand ratio, we can give an assessment in which directions price tends to go. But like I say, my purpose is not to do that. I am just giving you a model prediction on current supply and demand graphs.

Of course, I will be interested to see your prediction because that will help me to make my own analysis and I am sure that I will find a way to buy or sell later.
The bitcoin price needs to be stable for a moment before it increases and bitcoin is already making a correction before, so there is a chance for bitcoin price to reach the higher price.
Maybe we will see something in the next week because usually, on the first day in the next week, the price will give some surprise to us so gets ready for that.

whoever say he is right about future, is wrong. Please note guys: I am not trying to give you prediction in a way, Bitcoin will be 10k today and 9k tomorrow. I am just looking at a picture and evaluating what is the mood among buyers and sellers.

Currently, it's a fact, that we have a short run supply at 10k. And if all the sudden BTC reaches 10k, we will have price explosion. Is it likely to happen that BTC will reach 10k? I don't know. Is it possible that price will not explode? Yes, it is possible sellers will consolidate the line, but it is very likely the price will jump once it reaches 10k, looking at last published graph.

If anything changes, I will let you know.

That's great.

Its good to have an everyday update about the price movements of bitcoin, whether I care or not as long as you are doing this for a great reason then I think your hard work will be worth it. Analyzing the price of bitcoin is not easy because of its volatile movement so your prediction or analysis might not be accurate and you should be ready for the critics. Supply and demand is the one who moves the price of bitcoin, that's a good analysis though.

to be able to make the price of bitcoin need a process, there must be someone who buys and supports bitcoin because if no one buys bitcoin and no one uses bitcoin then the price of bitcoin will not be easy to go up to be expensive.

this is good news, and hopefully the information you say is true. because we have had a long mental war in the face of market conditions. but I also still don't believe where is the supply of Bitcoin?

With bitcoin trading, especially when you consider the fact that a lot of the speculative activity is completely arbitrary and random, and there are many external factors influencing price, I doubt that a single supply/demand graph says much at all.

Also, I don't think that basing it off one single exchange's order books means that this data will be accurate - each exchange has their differing amount of liquidity at a given point in time, and does not reflect the big picture.

By the way, is there any tangible reason as to why you included a demand curve shifted to the right 500 units, or is that just an arbitrary number that you came up with to illustrate a potential increase in demand?

just follow the blue curve.

Thank you. It's just an arbitrary curve, to give you an orientation what a random huge buying entry would cause to the market.

https://i.ibb.co/HxhKbGh/figure-1-2.png (https://i.ibb.co/HxhKbGh/figure-1-2.png)


The global picture is almost the same as yesterday, but this one might be interesting for day (hour) traders. Currently, the demand curve is far more inelastic than the supply curve. It seems currently there is a favor in demand for bitcoin. We might see the price go up if the ratio stays the same in the next couple of hours.

Compare last graph with this one:

https://i.ibb.co/ZH6dc0Q/figure-1-2.png (https://i.ibb.co/ZH6dc0Q/figure-1-2.png)


Notice how demand curve wants to flatten above 8.75k USD, it seems demand is loosing on power. CURRENTLY. But who knows what happens next.

Mental war for noobs perhaps, but for most people with a few working brain cells the bear market was a fantastic buy back opportunity. Buying back more coins for the same amount of money I got from selling is my main goal when it comes to accumulation, and I'm sure that applies to a lot more people.

At the deepest point of the bear market Bitcoin was quite clearly oversold, while some altcoins did well maintaining their value. XRP is a good example of that. People holding it wonder why it's not going up as much as the rest, but they don't understand that it had done well when other altcoins performed bad. Its USD price is exactly where it should be in relation to other altcoins.

Well, if you and your team are really doing analysis, then at least put down some money where your mouths are:)

1. The price of BTC will be reduced in the future. Which future date are you referring to? Tomorrow? Next year?
2. Sideways til Tuesday, and adjusted lower or higher?
3. Long at what margin and which entry price?

Come on, you got to do better than that;)

Can we ever rely on this data ?

We would never be able to gauge the P2P exchanges , the buying and selling that is going on in the system , nor we would be able to analyze this curve fully with no error in measurement.
The thing is , it is made in this sense that it's hard to actually keep a track of everything.

I do believe that it's something that we cannot find with absolute certainty.

It's not absolute cetain. It's like weather report. It gives you fully accurate current weather condition, but it can not tell you what is going to be a weather like in next hour. Nobody can predict with certantiy.

But hopefully you have information and this might be useful for your trading. I mean, it's still more likely to snow in December, than June, if you know what I mean.

What you say and the picture doesn't prove anything, small fluctuations like this have become normal things I think. usually Friday is where the market becomes red then Saturday until Monday the market is usually going green again. Unfortunately in this day something like this only happen with a chance rate 40%. Not bad but still this thing is a good chance for whom who want to find get a profit on weekly basis.

https://i.ibb.co/pZKNcLH/figure-1-4.png

Nothing much going on. 10k is the psychological and supply limit.

https://i.ibb.co/XFqPRQp/figure-1-4.png

Guys, check this picture. In last 24 hours we had major shift in demand and supply stayed the same. If things go in same direction as today we can expect price to go a lot above 10k.

I think demand for bitcoin is quite high now and we can see a spike in the price of bitcoin in the last 24hrs.

Demand is huge, yet supply is very weak. Another day like this and BTC will be the head news. But, we need another day like this, who knows what happens in next hours...

Still a huge demand and almost none support for supply above 10k. It's still looks Bitcoin will hit the sky if it goes above 10k.

https://i.ibb.co/XFqPRQp/figure-1-4.png

once bitcoin cross 10000 dollars then the price growth would be phenomenal so we may see more positive trends demand increases thereafter

Correct.
You have the accurate answers in your posts.

This is just mere speculation and I have never met anyone or saw a posts of anyone that made an accurate analysis of the bitcoin price. I mean like a daily or a monthly basis.

They all go wrong on the second time or if lucky the error will be on the third time.
No one can foretell what could happen because of the broad number of exchange by now. Some of their names I dont even know by now.
I just knew most of them start with a "bit" or a "coin" word.  ;D

Exactly, it is one bad side in bitcoin trading because whales have ways to manipulate the prices to the point that some traders and investors will do panic selling, yes we can see an increase now to $9k but we cannot assure that it will continue to do so, a lot of predictions has been out but we cannot be sure if it will really come true. We'll just have to wait what's going to happen hopefully the price will continue to go up.

Supply above 10k is weak. Prepare for big price changes, it might swing to 14,15k in next week and fall again. Volatility is coming.

https://i.ibb.co/n6y4h9z/figure-1-4.png

Demanders are getting more and more agressive. I believe price can go above 15k within next week, if ratio between supply and demand stays about the same as it is now.

Bitcoin above 12k and demand is still pushing. with this ratio, price can hit 18k till the end of the week.
https://i.ibb.co/W6KLfq1/figure-1.png

By the way guys, if you find this analysis useful and if you have made any profit based on them, you can share some of your profit with me... Why not? here is the wallet: 1CWp3LXEQSVMkWTW2vfSRxppfr4gpnoUf7 Thank you.

As predicted price of BTC will try to converge around 15k by the end of the weekend. Demand is still very agressive, guys.


Since no one is posting here, is there an interest to continue?

If you follow the growth rate of the price of Bitcoin over the past 2 months, then I can well assume the same thing that we can reach $ 15,000 before the end of this summer.  Many analysts have limited themselves to saying about the maximum price for Bitcoin at $ 15,000 for the whole 2019, but it seems to me that the situation can be much more progressive.

The current situation allows for the price to continue to surge and I think the price of 15k will be achieved before the second quarter ends. That is an achievement that seems impossible but if you see the sentiment that has happened so far I'm sure prices will continue to be pumped.

https://i.ibb.co/wWGvMB7/fig1.png

If you check this picture, globally, nothing really interesting is goin on. This is a log return analysis of Bitcoin. We have steady agressive demand and very weak supply. It will be interesting to see how long the demand can push the tempo.

I wouldn't pay much attention to so called analysts, mainly because of how unreliable their predictions have been in the past and how they don't seem to understand what this space is about.

One side of these analysts is extremely bullish while the other is extremely bearish. What really annoys me about them is that they link every obvious media event to a price increase (Facebook's Libra is an example of that).

It firstly isn't a crypto currency, but more importantly, it isn't going to launch this year. It's like the mainstream media doesn't think that Bitcoin can increase without an event acting as a trigger. How pathetic.

An example of the ignorance involved is how most non crypto news outlets don't even know that there is a block halving coming up. How uninformed can they be to not know about such an important event?  ::)

Well, you're just predicting but you don't really know if what you're predicting is accurate or not. Nobody can predict what will happen, even when you least expected it, it might be just the time that a whale will decide to invest a huge amount of money in the cryptocurrency market, and before you know just what's happening the price has started moving up within a short time. So forget about the prediction thing you're talking about and if in case you don't know, the price has already crossed from $9k to $12k plus within a short days.

https://imgur.com/RHWfFbQ

Things are stabilizing. Demand is moving away.

when we are using the Bitcoin continuously then it will not been stable for a long time in a same position that is the most important reason that we don't have the prediction about the Bitcoin in any situation and more over normal will reduce the value or increase the value.

I agree with you that we can progress more than that, but correction is what usually limit some of these values predicted from growing beyond that, I remember some days back when I watch the market grow up to $13700, just within few minutes, the market suddenly plunged to $12140, making it lose value of over $1000 dollars within a space of 10 minutes before climbing back.

We could see a major correction now that will drop us back to like $7000, and when that happen, we will definitely struggle for the remaining part of the year to climb back again, which may set us to a new ATH for the year 2019 at $15k before we continue the remaining uptrend journey by next year. Well, all is speculation, and anything could happen.

It seems that your assumptions do not come true. We are approaching mid-August, three weeks are left before the end of summer, and the price of bitcoin is now $ 11,394 and has a tendency to decrease. Bitcoin price volatility has always been and will always remain very high. In June, bitcoin grew very well in price, but this does not mean that it will grow for a long time. Now its price is fluctuating and for a given period of relative calm in all markets, this is good. This creates good prerequisites for the further growth of the cryptocurrency market with the onset of autumn. The fourth quarter of the year will be decisive.

Obviously, with its volatility, that would be hard.

Demand and its investors are the most reason why the price of Bitcoin do change and not change. It is more of it changes that it do not change since as I said, with its volatility and a lot of its users, Bitcoin will change so quickly.

Supply and demand will get low and low eventually, demand is going strong but supply is not getting bigger at all, miners are mining around 2k bitcoin right now (around 1.8k) and that will be cut in half soon which is 900 bitcoin give or take, that is a ton of bitcoin that would not be sold on the market, that would eventually affect the price, not right away after the halving because I am sure they are saving a bit of it aside for "just in case" reasons but eventually that will be depleted as well so all they would have is the 900 bitcoin and this is not just one person or one mining company, its bunch of them sharing it.

Hence, I think its quite important to know that bitcoin will start going up in about 1 year (maybe a bit longer like 16-18 months) because miners will have less and less money to sell.

Miners have never sold the major part of their earnings to begin with. If after the block halving the price tanks, they might end up unloading more coins because of how their operational cost is still the same.

If the price does go up, the number of coins they sell might be lower compared to how many coins they sell today, but the dollar value of their sales will keep going up and therefore eat through more available market liquidity.

The dollar amount miners need every month to stay operational only increases as we have learned from the previous years. Lower block inflation doesn't change that at all.

Overall, it all comes down to what cycle we're in. If we're going through a bear market where liquidity is leaving the market, the low rate of block inflation will not help you at all, the price will keep going down anyway.

The demand for Bitcoin will be constantly growing, and this is evident. We know that the number of BTC will be not changed ever, and further, when more and more people will start entering the crypto market, this cryptocurrency will grow in price.
If you enter some popular exchange and look through its statistics you will see that more guys buy Bitcoin not sell it.