Bitcoin Forum

According to a recent Twitter post from Josh Olszewicz, an analyst at Brave New Coin, Bitcoin’s one-day chart is starting to show signs that bears are starting to creep into the cryptocurrency scene. He explains that Bitcoin is currently trading in a rising wedge pattern, which if not broken past, often acts as a catalyst for a bearish trend reversal.

What’s more, there have been bearish divergences between Bitcoin’s price, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). In other words, as BTC has moved higher over the past two weeks, these indicators have trended lower. This is important, as bullish divergences seemingly preceded a number of crypto market rallies throughout recent trading sessions.

Full Story Here. (https://www.newsbtc.com/2019/06/02/analyst-bitcoin-btc-bears-near-exhaustion-investors-should-be-wary/)

Your thoughts guys?

I totally agree with author. Bitcoin prices have exceeded the good price. Everyone be careful, currently fomo too much.

Its obvious that bulls are currently have lost their steem a little bit. I usually dont believe in any TA (anymore), but I am sure as long as the Bitfinex investigations arent closed there wont be flooding that much new money in to support the bulls stance.

I really don't rely most of my trading and investments on technical analysis. Bitcoin or I mean cryptocurrency has its own move that usually defies all trading analysis. Its volatility usually plays a very important role in making a profit or making you earn good money in the market. So technical analysis for is not always right. It is still a prediction one can only reference.

Its normal to have pullback, consider that the bull already run for a long time, now its depend on thr investors, will they take the chance to buy in dip to make another rising or going to let it be, the chart showed a downtrend but the investors could make it up again, but even if it's down its a normal and healthy behavior

Better to call them as correction then calling it as bear market again, until now I didn't see any reversal of the prices of Bitcoin only the correction happening in the recent days and it's not too much only near to the top prices of the Bitcoin this year. The prediction may comes true but the bear won't stay to longer since people already get the mind set of bull run now.

I tried to view orders book on most of the popular exchanges platforms and I did not see were the bull is loosing ground and the bear taking over the market. The relatively straight index (rsi) and macd you have mentioned in related to bitcoin price chart are lagging indicators and most time there read past information as present. I did not see were pin bar on the daily chart pattern has form! I therefore disagree with this analysis and remain bullish.

It's almost a year before the next halving occur. This is what others are really waiting for. Take this correction as an ooportunity to accumulate some decent bitcoin at cheaper price. If you will base on the historic price it's normal for some correction after a bull-market. History repeats it self.

I like Josh and he's bringing some solid classical TA to the table here. He's not wrong about the classic warning signs. I myself have been wondering if a major correction is looming.

However, there are some counterpoints to make. For one thing, as counter intuitive as it may seem, Bitcoin often breaks up from rising (bearish) wedges. For another thing, there are some nuances to reading momentum divergences. When the high time frame (weekly) indicators are overbought, indicating a very strong trend, divergences on the daily time frame are often negated. In fact, if we break up from this price formation, the daily indicators will have lots of room to run higher now.

Overall he's right, it's a good time to be on the lookout for larger correction. If we start holding below the 20-day MA, it might just be time.

Well as much as we hate it the feeling is mutual it really feels like the bull's are near exhaustion.
The market has been quite for a while no big news or movement .
So I think the bull market is really near to end and the bear would enter soon.

How halving will impact on bitcoin price? I haven't been evaluating bitcoin history price change. Will halving increase bitcoin price? It seems logic, why do work for half reward, when everyone still needs the block to mined.

I think last year also all the coins are growing well and again all are return to same level. But this year we see some interesting news, so it will make boom also possible at anytime. But current market was stay in critical level because anything was possible at future. Those are want to more profit in Bitcoin trying to invest soon and fix some target of trading is the right option.

There's nothing to worry about,even if the price goes back to 5K.
Bulls and bears are usually the same people.Some bulls decided to sell btc and cashout the profits.That doesn't mean that they won't buy if the price start going down.

Now, Bitcoin will not fall to 5 thousand again. The current fluctuations are a norm - we do not see that BTC is falling into the deep pit. In a couple of days, it will start growing again, even with a better speed than before.

it hasn't been that long, the uptrend was started noticeably early april from ~$4000 to ~$5000  
then continues rising rapidly during may up to as high as ~$8700
with the recent sudden spike from $5k to $8k, we cannot ignore the possibility of correction afterwards

the possibility is always there,
the first support should be around ~$6500, then next at ~$5000 and very strong at ~$3500

I don't think too much about it because it's only for those who are crazy about big profits after Bitcoin started in its heyday, this is something that isn't too bad because the market will find a good phase for the market to adjust before pumping back, worrying but don't overdo it someday the market will improve again, surely you have often followed market movements from year to year, that's where learning becomes a good investment, then take advantage of what's available today.

Not much believing when it comes to technicals but we can always correlate up those things on what we are seeing as of this moment.
The rising momentum did really stop and now we are facing some correction or we can presume that this might be already a bearish reversal.
Such decline of price is too fast the same as it is when it do rise up.

I don't think that bullish investors are tired of the continuous rise. We're only more than 3 months of bull market. Remember that bearish market before this bull market took more than a year. The rise is continuous and nice and slow. We are just ending the second quarter of 2019, and expecting much more to come.

3500 is out of the question. We were in a bear market and experienced a big reversal back to bull. Bear and bull markets don't take 2 months to switch. After so many signs of reversal including the breaking of big resistance at 5000 and a golden cross we are set for many months of a bull market.

It's possible that this is going to be more of a sideways trading bull and we won't go above 10 thousand until the end of the year but it won't be much worse.

This adjustment has not been able to determine this market and this is just a normal discount so there is no need to worry too much because I believe that after this discount Bitcoin will soon reach $10,000 this month or in end of the year . Anyway, this discount has made it possible for me to buy cheap coins and if you are afraid it is best to leave because this is a market only for risk lovers and this is an opportunity I will not ignore this year

Well, it really happened. The Bulls are already exhausted and we saw that the price of not just Bitcoin but other cryptocurrencies on the top have drop more than 10% in these past few days.

I think the possible key support at this moment is at 6800 and if that goes below then a possible 4-5k is next but the possibilities are slim. I'm expecting for a quick bounce after this recent fall of the price of Bitcoin.

Here are two possible scenarios: a bullish one (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg51285503#msg51285503), and a bearish one (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/gTJaNkxb-Bitcoin-price-overview-waves-04-06-2019/). Take your pick!

I'm leaning towards the bear case but bulls have a few days to save the weekly chart. Breaking and holding above the $8,350 area might do it.


Maybe not quite $5,000 but I think the low-mid $5000s are very possible, perhaps even likely. People think it's impossible right now because of recency bias but based on history, (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5146944.msg51272854#msg51272854) a correction like that would very typical.

Investors should know how their investments in trading works. It's not only this time that they should be concerned about but should be all the time. I'm not scaring the newbies or others but I'm just saying we should always be prepared but still be hopeful that the bull market is no over and people just see the latest value the right time for sell off.

It was bound to pullback sometime eventually. Look at the bull market of 2017 in the second half of the year. Bitcoin was on a crazy bull run but it had huge pullbacks along the way.

I remember when it touched $5000 for the first time and about a week later it hit $3000 and people assumed $5K was the top but it quickly reversed from $3K to break the ATH about 3 weeks later.

So I am assuming this will be similar, we might get a nasty pullback but within a month should break the $9100 area we made last week.

I think it's time the whales want to exhaust all the coins they hold. because we will not be able to see a bull run like 2017 anymore and I have warned traders that this is a big trap of manipulating organizations.
The crypto market cannot recover so quickly, it is absurd. The IEO has really brought a lot of money to the market, but the BTC price suddenly increased from $ 5k5 to $ 9k in just 1 month is not normal.
I guess its price will continue down until the resistance of $ 7k.

However the price of the market, an investor must always be aware of any market price movements. pumps or falls can happen anytime without any warning or preparation.

I believe this is also a right time to bag some more coins out there because I believe that the bull is not over rather the market is making and adjustment for those who couldn't get in to be part of the trend. Not a financial adviser but do your own research regarding the market.

Bitcoin will do halving in 2020. Bitcoin is very likely to be in a bullish position this month. Also, the fact that the market has just woken up from a long crypto winter will give more confidence to rising sentiment. And many of the opinions of experts on Bitcoin price predictions could rise to 84% by the end of this year.

Those indicators that op mentioned do not always give the real direction of the market and I don't think bitcoin follows it. Price might have slightly been dropping but I will hodl for a while. I believe price will go up more.

So you think we're entering another bubble already? Late 2017 was the culmination of 2-3 years of bull market. It was the blow-off top. I have a hard time believing we're in that stage of the market cycle yet where we could expect this sort of momentum to continue.

I could see this rally continuing to $10K or further. So I'm not sure it's done yet. But I believe the rally will eventually give way to a longer term ranging structure and 2019 will end a lot more boring than people expect.

That recent little pull back down to $7,423 was invigorating! Now it is going back up in a big way!

it might be true because a big correction happened recently and indeed this increase can be said to be a rapid increase and a reversal to the bear market in the near future is possible, but if we see another bullish analysis that will happen next year, then at least this year the market will get a saturation that will make prices stagnate

Josh is just another whale that missed out of the train and trying to create an FUD to cause dump so he can panic investor to buy at dipper price, but I think I like this, watch the price of BTC after this, you will see that BTC will react positively to it because I have notice that bitcoin react opposite FUD news, and I think he has lost already.

I called him whale for using the word bear because he should have known that correction always happen, and the fact they don’t get a strong bull signal for a while doesn’t mean there is none preparing for the push, everyone studies the market situation before investing, and right now, we are already in the uptrend and I don’t see anything pulling bitcoin back to the bear market other than the little correction.

No, not at all! Josh used to be a regular in the Tradingview chat a couple years ago. He's a good guy, always trying to help novice analysts, and is just employing classical TA. Very straight forward stuff. There's nothing FUD-like about his analysis. He's not a whale either, just a regular retail trader like us.

I also see the number of buyers falling and the traders are not encouraging at this time. because the BTC price has adjusted 2 times in a row and that has caused the whole market to go down psychologically.
The traders are now quite frightened at the moment and therefore the volume is getting less and less.
Upcoming whales will pump prices again and our market will continue bustling.

All these are prediction and speculation and there is really nothing to worry about, all it is it just a push and pull from whales and bears as they realize that this is might be there last chance to get their hands on some btc at this low of a price as we slowly approach the point where starts buying before the halving in which the prices might reach very high levels, we went back and for between the 7k and 8k multiple times and it is obviously corrections and once it breaks past the 8.5k will be good to go.

We are really having these kind of pull and push of prices on these levels and this do like just happen on 6-7k price in the past
where we can presume that we are currently seeing the same situation.I don't see for people do see that exhaustion thing yet only big players on
this market can sees through it.

I believe bitcoin has the ability to pump itself without whales influence and had showed with the recent institution in flow of fund. The manipulation in the market is just to control the rate of growth and it has not been cheap. We will see such trend ti; December before we see a different movement next year. The correction will come often and we need to get used to it

Smart buyers and traders do not stay away from the market or afraid, any smart trader who has studied the market should be fully conversant with corrections, and rather that getting scarred and shying away, they see it as an obligation, or would I say opportunity to add more of the coins to the wallet, in order to take more profit.

So traders should even be the one that this type of fluctuation will favor more, because they always get the opportunity to buy low, and then wait for the price to surge again to sell high which is how majority of people like me has been making our money on special occasions like this.

some people continue to talk about halving and its effect on the increase in the price of bitcoin, but I don't see it happening now. right now I see a very significant change in Litecoin that is increasing very well, and some people associate it with halving

My trade setups for today

BTC/USD
14 Day RSI at 80% $11,321
14 Day RSI at 70% $9,190
Pivot Point 2nd Resistance $8,436
Pivot Point 1st Resistance $8,232
Biggest resistance 7 days $8,125
Take profit $8,081
Pivot Point 1st Support $7,677
Buy more $7,537
14 Day RSI at 50% $7,491
Biggest support 7 days $7,454
Pivot Point 2nd Support $7,327

Buy signal: When the first buy signal comes, buy only if you have sold earlier with a higher price and can make a profit. Otherwise let the price go down, wait until the "Change one hour" turns to positive, and the price has hit a buy wall.
Sell signal: When the first sell signal comes, sell only if you have bought earlier with a lower price and can make a profit. Otherwise let the price go up, wait until the "Change one hour" turns to negative, and the price has hit a sell wall.

Halving will happen in 2020 and people should not expect too much in the market like it won't pull back because this is how an open market works. Things won't stay on top always, there should always some time that they have to go back down again.

Just think about it like this, if the bullish trend stays for more than a week then bearish will stay more than a week too. Don't just expect continuous growth in a strong volatility market.

And just to add, halving will not make the price goes on a dramatic spike overnight. It take some time, probably another 4-6 months before we can finally say that it is really the catalyst. So it will be a continue battle, because there is bulls/bears fighting each other in this kind of market.

It is a difficult thing to ask from buyers to keep buying just to go up however it is also quite possible that maybe instead sellers will start to sell less?

Nobody considers that as an option but that is a way bitcoin could go up as well. I know the norm is people buying and that is why sellers are either actually selling or removing their orders but maybe this time buyers will not be buying that much but sellers will realize that there is a chance they could profit a lot from it and stop selling at the resistance levels and traders will take advantage of that?

You do not need to buy all orders until 20 thousand dollars to make bitcoin worth 20 thousand dollars, you just need ot make sure nobody sells under 20 thousand dollars and you have bitcoin at 20k without buying a single satoshi.

Agreed,halving doesn't make the prices goes up instantly it will take time lke atleast one year to gt effeced on the market.But we did faced the spike a lot earlier so we are having a small bull run upfrong that halving as well so there might be a correction will occur when we are nearing to the halvening stage.

More than one week after your post, there are again signs of weakness in bull pressure. Upwards momentum is slowing, volumes get thiner on significant price levels - it seems than we will be crawling around $8,000 for some time.

And what is problem with that? Like price didnt make a nice progress until now, but for some people there is no word "enough". Always more, always higher, always some pressures, some stupid weakness..
I think that most of the people dont even know what this words means. This headline bulls near exhaustion is very stupid thing to say, what that actually means? How can they get exhausted in the first place? And for the investors, who invested 6 months ago can sleep nice now with profit, who was thinking to much and wait dip made a huge mistake, learn from that.

Until now, so many Bitcoin analyst and holder still cannot specifically say what makes the price of Bitcoin surges high abnormally, we understand the normal proper increase we do see, because once we have demand of Bitcoin, the effect of it should normally be an increase in the value, but when there is a drastic increase, it causes confusion and many people tries to attribute it to lots of things based on their own personal opinion and believes.

I have been hearing what halving is expected to contribute to the surge of Bitcoin, but still cannot understand how it will affect it exactly, we just have to wait and see.

Such analyzes have become false with the crypto market. The assumptions given are quite reasonable but in fact go against that analysis. The price of BTC has increased to nearly $ 8200 and this proves that it is anything that can happen. The power of bull run is great and the candles will not create the story.

This is normal in the market, we cannot always get constant increase and even if Bitcoin settles down on this price for the rest of the year, it is still a very big progress and a great achievement for the year compared to where we are coming from after the last bear market.

We still have very active investors that are keeping the value of Bitcoin in uptrend and as against investors being exhausted, they are not, what we just lack a little bit are new investor or new crypto adopter which we don’t expect to grow suddenly. Rome was not built in a day, and adopter are coming in with time, the number will keep increasing and has they gradually increases, the price of Bitcoin will gradually increase too.

Today I read an article that at the moment the investor's greed index is at its peak. This index is not used as a technical analysis tool, but it is determined by several factors. It is possible that the market will soon become bearish, I do not exclude this. But I want to believe that this will not happen

June 03, 2019

Price: $8500

Today ( June 17, 2019 )

Price: $9191

as you can see, the price has increased, so I do not take these analyzes and price forecasts seriously, because most of the time they are wrong

I think people are looking at the wrong direction right now, buyers are getting tired and sellers are always there because there are miners and panic sellers and traders and many others who are selling. However you are looking at "how we can go up" right now which is the wrong question to ask at this moment, the real question is "why should we go down" and that is the reason why it will be going up soon not down.

Look at the price and look at the hype around bitcoin once again after one and a half years, we haven't had this type of hype for a long time since the last all time high and there is absolutely no reason to go back down. That is why I think the worst case scenario we will be staying at this price whereas we will be going up in the best case scenario, there is no way bitcoin will fall after all of this.

You are right about the market ups and downs. There is no doubt in the fact that it does makes you feel down as well. But for an optimist, there could be signs of profits when a pessimist would just sell low. We still have reasons to invest in crypto and particularly in Bitcoin because we are going to have the Bitcoin halving in months to come and in addition to that, there could be sudden surge in the value as well.

No one knows when it will end or when it will begin,its all in the game and just react to what we are getting.The bullish trend keep continues and seems like will be able to break $10K at the next swing range.Anyone feels that $10,000 will be broken in near future? Or the strong resistance will keep the price at this phase.

Hard to say, right now I'm seeing like -2% in bitcoin price.

It means that there are sellers @$9000 range, might be a mental barrier for them. So it might take some time before we can finally break the $10k barriers. Of course, we wanted to see it get broken this month, but I'm more willing to wait and be patience.

We all know that the price shifts in momentum though, so I'm still positive that in the next coming months, that 5 digit price would be breach.

Don't use an article is a benchmark for you to predict the market movement. You have to use many articles if you do that, I mean if there is some articles that stated the same thing then you have to believe to these information. Against the market movement it's indeed everything will be happened there is no impossible but once again it depend on the information itself. Each investor will do the same thing if they read the several article who stated the same thing. I'll ignore the bearish market will come again at this time, seems like the market cryptocurrency has health again.

Nothing is certain in the crypto market. Better yet, if we see a sudden increase or decrease in the market, we should run ahead to avoid the whale trap. I have not had any profits on BTC or ETH in the past 2 months because I feel this growth will be risky.
We should also set ourselves a margin of safety to avoid having losses of more than 50% - 60%.

Bubbles bubbles bubbles, price vs kijun analysis using oversold/overbought conditions. Regardless of crypto fluctuations, we must be careful at all times because trend analysis and candles are not completely 100% correct in very fluctuating cryptocurrency and sensitive to information and news.

Because of bitcoin halving, the price of bitcoin gradually moving up. A lot of speculation that are saying bitcoin will fall and becomes exhausted. However, there is a great support level at 7k dollars. Definitely, it would become hard for the price to go back specially, if there is no bad news for bitcoin.

its possible to ask buyers to buy more especially if you know the person ( e.g if he is your friend or one of your family member ) every investors wants the better for thier investments therfor they will do anything such as buying more because this was the only way to up the price .

asking them to sell is the one that is nearly impossible to happen because majority of the investors will always prefer to hodl so that they can sell more in the future rather than selling too early and earn only small amount that they cant use immediately or worst they can loose  .

Well it seems your Twitter analyst has been proven wrong, though I know that what he did was just to guess what's likely to happen and the way I see it that's not going to happen cause the price is now going back up and the way I see it, there is going to be a bull this year, though the only thing I'm concerned about is the fees for transaction, if not for that there is nothing else I would be worried about. Last time in 2017 the fees was too much and I don't know how it's going to be this time around, especially if the price happens to get pass what it was back then, that means it will be more than what it was then.

dont believe in this indicators they according to price dont give importance to this indicators and decide that whole trend will change , even a small decrease in price rsi will fall quickly and macd will start to converge and it will diverge  

I don't think they are that much exhausted but the fact that sellers are getting lesser and lesser helps it too.

Look at bitcoin price in the last 2 weeks, from the drop at 9 thousand dollars to under 8 thousand dollars it started to climb back up slow by slow and now it is over 9 thousand dollars again, it took bitcoin just a week to recover from a gigantic drop which means the bulls are still here and there is no exhaustion anywhere to be found. That is why I honestly think that even with sellers help with not selling cheaper there is still a lot of bulls and hype going around bitcoin that would make sure the price keeps going up.

Maybe some big whale will sell a lot and we can't cover it all and fall down but unless something unexpected like that happens we are going to keep going up.

I don’t understand what you mean by not having profits in that past 2 months, what happened to all the opportunities that has come and gone within that two months for you to make the profit, whale or no whale, life is full of risk and so is business too, it is now left for you to be extremely smart to manage the risk and not investing or taking risk is not management, you end up losing out completely.

Secondly, you need to watch the trend of things, and you should have known by now that the market of Bitcoin is still an healthy one and I don’t see any whale trap in there, the market is slowly growing as it ought to be growing with organic investment.

Indicators are just indicators so people don't have to concentrate much on them,even after many predictions says the prices won't even recover to the level of $5000 in 2019 but now see what is happening,we are at $11000 and still increasing.

It will become exhausted but not right now! There is a strong buyer or support under 10K dollars. If it goes below 10K, I think it is just a correction. But we cannot also deny that 10k usd is the psychological resistance of bitcoin also. From hitting the 11K dollars, I am anticipating what will be the next move of the whales. Do they go with the current flow and buy again thousands of bitcoin or they will sell already. Fortunately, until now there is no bad news in bitcoin.

It will serve as a good basis if you have good knowledge with reading indicators though there's no real assurance whether this indication will move according to what you expected but it's good if you can setup your strategy according to what you understand, working with the market you should bring your knowledge and be ready with any movements that will take place.

Sometimes it is better to go with what our mind says rather than what the indicator says,if someone sold bitcoins based on the indicator then they will lose their huge profits for now.Anyway it depends on every individual.I am much conservative and lazy to make trades too often so I chose to hold.

Hopefully this prediction is right. This is the year for Bitcoin. BTC prices have almost increased 3-fold since the beginning of the year and can surpass $ 10,000 in the coming days. It can further increase to $ 20,000 by the end of 2019, and in the next two years, BTC can be valued between $ 50,000 and $ 1,000,000.

I guess this topic was created way too quickly after we reached to a level we were not even close to top, sometimes people are worried and I can understand that.

Worrying about something makes you defensive and makes you try to protect what you have and not attack on what you don't have, trying to figure out if the buyers will get tired of buying and will drop makes people either cash out or find ways to protect their profits which is still acceptable, maybe not as aggressive in profiting as the day traders or long term traders but at least not as bad as people who still keep their cash in fiat. That is why even though OP was super wrong I would still support his way of thinking just so he doesn't earn as much but he doesn't lose neither point of perspective.