Bitcoin Forum

A good way to get a head of future market moves is to game out important scenarios, i.e. ones which result in market moves.  I think WW2b is an important scenario.  Here's my WW2b scenario:  

Occupied Crimea votes independence from Ukraine.  
Ukraine mobilizes military in eastern Ukraine.  
Putin invades eastern Ukraine to "protect ethnic Russians".  
Ukrainian military retreats.  
NATO enters Ukraine.  
Ukraine military re-enters eastern Ukraine.  
Putin escalates in eastern Ukraine.  
Ukraine military retreats.  
NATO in force.  
NATO - Russian air conflict, Russia suffers loses.
NATO - Russian ground conflict, NATO suffers loses.  
NATO uses tactical nukes.  
Putin nukes New York.

How does this scenario affect Bitcoin?

Are there scenarios in Transdniestra or the Baltics which are more likely to escalate than the more narrowly focused conflict in Ukraine?

Currencies would collapse , only people in bitcoin/litecoin gold and silver would be able to preserve their wealth.

The West has shown no inclination to fight, so I think your event chain breaks down pretty quickly.  But as World War I showed, if nations do want to fight the excuse can come from the most minor of events.

I do agree that it NYC gets nuked, it is pretty bad for most conventional currencies and probably curtains for the USD as the dominant reserve currency.

Putin is Evil but not stupid. He knows he can get away with annexing Crimea, there's nothing the West can do about it. Ukraine has always been under Russia/Soviet's Sphere of Influence. It's their backyard/frontyard/sideyard or whatever. Ordinary people be damned. Ordinary people are stupid, have you heard that majority of Russian people are supporting their dictator right now?

WWII??? Its WWIII!!  ::)

james, can you explain to me the motivations of the US and Russia's involvement in this situation? I've so far had a hard time wrapping my head around that part. Your post indicates a perception of Putin acting out of greed (a trait of being evil) and I just want to know how it's different from what everyone else is doing there.

Yes. This is a WWIII scenario. As for Bitcoin the question then becomes how many nodes do you have to nuke in order to knock out the entire network?

Deary me.  ::)

If the USD collapsed, not that it is going to anytime soon but if it did, then Bitcoin/Litecoin, and all the other junk coins would be worth exactly their weight in gold. Nothing. Bitcoin's value is directly related to their rate of interchangeability to government backed currencies.

Not true. Bitcoin is and has been traded in terms of gold.

Edit: A collapse of the USD could very easily lead in an increase in the value of Bitcoin in terms of gold.

Yeah whatever.

Believe whatever makes you feel good m8.

Nothing will happen, not a world war. Maybe market reactions but that's about it.

And lot of politians cursing one another  :D

Putin is in a fight for his ego.  His propaganda reveals his self-image.  To maintain his identity, he must not back down, must out-game all opponents, and make continual gains.  This is perfectly aligned with his domestic political requirements.  Expanding empire is good for the oligarchs he represents and manages, and good for his popular support.  His most obvious weakness:  Dependence on internal backers, whose interests may change skew to his own.  We have a mafioso in power in Russia.  He's more like Don Corleone than Hitler, but there are similarities to both.

Russian invasion of Ukraine at SOME level will not be tolerated by NATO.  He has seized Abkhazia and South Ossetia.  He has seized Transdneistra.  He has seized Crimea.  If he seizes Ukraine it seems clear he will seize the Baltic States.  Hell, why not Finland?  Why not assimilate Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan?  We've been down this road before.  Poland in WW2 had its borders guaranteed by UK.  Ukraine today had its borders guaranteed by US UK and RU.  If Russia stays in Ukraine, Ukraine will re-arm nuclear.  NATO does not want that, at least not unless Ukraine is both stable and part of NATO.  Putin would rather invade Ukraine entire than invade part and face a nuclear Ukraine in 2 years time.

To say there is nothing the west can do about it seems very questionable to me.  Putin can be removed.  Economic measures can be taken which would beggar Russia, causing him to be deposed.  Military action can be taken to strengthen Ukraine.  Political action can be taken, to incorporate Ukraine into NATO, or offer that as a chip to bargain against Crimea.  In a political game, ground truth is critical.  Putin is motivated to grab as much as he can before coming to the bargaining table.  If he does that badly, there will be copious blood.  The west has strong incentives to stop him before he gains more power, more momentum, and more bargaining chips.  In fact, given his history, it seems clear to me at least that he must be punished.  Some chips must be removed from his kitty, or he will just do it again on another front.

Where are you from and what sort of geopolitical disneyland are you living in?

The US lead West, have been baiting China and Russia for years and will continue to do so. Lately they have been pushing things a little too far and Putin isn't standing for it. All these recent squabbles in Russia's backyard involve muscling in on markets and gaining a strategic foothold right on Russia's doorstep. Can you see why Putin or any other Russian leader (who hasn't sold out to the West) might have a problem with a great big belt of NATO missile bases going up right along their borders? NATO cannot afford to engage Russia in a out and out military conflict. Russia needs to be brought to heel or at least pushed into a strategic and economic stalemate position. The ultimate end goal is to be in a position to crush China, who will grow to be the US's number 1 competitor for world resources and power. A strong Russia stands in the way of a WW3 scenario. For this reason, the Russian bear needs to be driven into it's cage, and held there.

oh and btw, just sit back and watch how Russia annex the Crimea and NATO does fuck all except blow their trumpet and wag their fingers. If the west pushes for sanctions against Russia, then Russia can also badly hurt the West, especially so the EU, and the EU won't like the US pushing for sanctions that will indirectly damage them. The US have pushed the boat out too far on this one, and will have to take a slap in the face with humility, as Russia does whatever it wants.

I am not James but I can try to explain Putin's motivation.

The Crimea was part of the Russian empire for hundreds of years and part of the Soviet Union after that. It wasn't until 1954 that Khruschev made it part of the Ukranian S.S.R.

After the break up of the Soviet Union, the now independent country of Ukraine agreed to give up its nuclear weapon arsenal and the Russian navy was allowed to keep using its base in Sevastopol on the Black Sea (in Crimea).

Thereafter, NATO expanded to include certain Eastern European countries.

Ukraine has been split between the western Ukranian part of the country which is majority ethnic Ukranian and Ukranian nationalist and southern/eastern Ukraine which is majority Russian ethnicity in many areas and more pro Russia.

Putin's actions may be based on mistrust of the west/the new government that just took power in Kiev as well as a desire to protect Russia's interests in the Crimea. A desire to look strong also probably plays well on the home front. I don't think all out war is likely however.

I have a less violent scenario imagine Level 3 communications turns off all thier operations for a month how would that impact NATO and BTC?

corrected

EDIT: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2486809/New-book-claims-President-Obama-bragged-aides-using-drone-strikes.html

Putin did not kill even 1 human since he is president and saved Syria from another bloody american invasion with an false flag action.

Mat has the most probable view on this issue and I have to agree. Nato will bitch and moan and US will threaten sanctions, etc.... but in the end Putin will annex Crimea and no one will stop it. No sanctions will be imposed and no western military will directly intervene. If anyone lifts a finger, Europe will have zero natural gas... because it is Russia, through the Ukrainian pipeline, that supplies them.

This is well past the bounds of delusional.

Souvenir from Georgia:

http://blog.cleveland.com/world_impact/2008/08/large_TankGeorgia_South_Ossetia_Meye.JPG

Europe can live without Russian trade.   Russia starves without European trade.  Europe has alternative sources of natural gas, and alternative sources of energy other than gas.  Russia can't export gas in quantity except through Europe.  Not yet.

Annexing Crimea guarantees nuclear Ukraine unless the government can be destabilized and subverted, or the nation invaded whole.  Putin will not accept nuclear Ukraine.  Europe will not accept Russian puppet or colony Ukraine.
When all political alternatives fail, war results.

...and we all become
~fabulously wealthy~
http://static.tumblr.com/syiajva/kOAm8uv5n/73619-road-warrior.jpg

my "numbers station" start a new loop cryptography sequence :D

I still hold out some hope that this thread can lead to meaningful scenario analysis.  Well, it's dying fast.

Okay, so I've surmised from the series of posts in this thread that Putin wants Crimea for strategic military reasons and also gas pipeline reasons, which is a similar theme in all of these "conflicts" of late.

I also gather that the US wants to prevent this for those same reasons, but under the guise of "for the good of the Ukraine people" or "to honor our commitments to the protection of somesuch". The typical US hyperbole.

US won't use military force unless there is an invasion.

Putin won't invade Crimea until it's annexed, and then this will be "defensive measures". This idea is consistent with the delay tactics being used in negotiations.

Putin wagers that the world might not agree with the US calling this an invasion, but in that scenario, they will most certainly take economic sanction actions, as promised. Hence, moves are already being made on that front (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-14/it-begins-past-week-foreigners-sell-record-amount-over-100-billion-treasurys-held-fe).

So, my prediction is that this will be the start of some kind of currency war. Russia and China seem like they might want to engage, in a big way. A grab for control of natural resources makes sense, if this is the ultimate plan. It's the only thing sure to hold value in the shit storm to come. Economies will need to be rebuilt, and it will be on the backs of commodities.


Soooo... Bitcoin up.

How did I do?

It was flawed from the very start.

The OP (you) lacks a good nose for the principles of geopolitics and everyone else around here is hell bent on somehow managing to twist every event into some kind of 'Bitcoin 2 da Moon' situation.

So who are the good guys? Nato? And Putin is the evil baddie? Hmm

Honestly some people on here need to try and see bigger pictures. War is being brewed by bankers for bankers benefit. Like all wars. Politicians of either 'side' are pawns are quickly removed from the picture as soon as they don't follow the script. Its time people became more enlightened. Why are western forces destablising Ukraine? To absorb them into the technocratic borg of the EU. Blue print for the zionist global new world order. Dont trust media to tell you any truth.

Buy gold silver and bitcoins and Hodl!

Well, naturally we want to know the potential impact of the situation on bitcoin. There's a reason this thread is in the bitcoin speculation forums. If you think the impact will be negative or nil, you should write a brief outline for how you reached that conclusion.

My opinion was that economic sanctions are almost certainly going to come out of this, which are bad for everyone. Sanctions will lead to counter-sanctions and bond dumping, and currency manipulation. All of these things are bad, the people will suffer, and the governments will assign the blame to the bad guy who "caused this", which will justify an indefinite campaign against them.

I see that as an opportunity for bitcoin to gain more users, but perhaps you see another outcome?

That seems a sensible model constraint.  But you should not ignore the rest of Europe. It's not a 2-player game.

Well, he already has invaded it in fact.  He might take it to a new level after the referendum -- which it is impossible for him to lose, so the outcome doesn't matter much, just the timing.

If so, I think he already lost that one.  It just hasn't played out yet because nobody wants to call him on it as long as he still has room to stand down.

Definitely.   This point works for me.


I was hoping for some back-and-forth on these lines.  Thank you for rising to the challenge.

Usually we take the inflationary scenario as bullish for BTC.  You're suggesting that a USD value deflation is bullish, so I think that needs some explanatory reasoning.  Of course the value deflation is likely to be met with additional supply inflation, so from a classical economic view, that means eventual decline in USD value.  The value deflation is the part of the trajectory is what concerns me about the generally bullish estimation.  Would it not be something like:

Military stonewall.
Economic sanctions.
RU/CN sell USTs.
USTs plummet.
Rates go up, dollar goes up, bitcoin goes down.
FRB cranks up the presses.
Rates go down, dollar goes down, bitcoin goes up.
USD stabilizes, bitcoin trucks onward (exponential trend)
...wait so long you seriously consider becoming a crackhead to kill the boredom...
USD tidal wave comes rushing back
Hyperinflation
Rates skyrocket
Bitcoin to the moon.

I rather hope you're right.  Military stonewall, without an invasion of eastern Ukraine, just continued occupation of Crimea, no hot war, would save a lot of suffering.  But I'm not sure it is viable for Putin, because of the sanctions.  He has no patriotic card to play at that point, and his internal support is vanishing due to the cost of the escapade.  It gets worse and worse for him personally with each passing day.

I think it's a matter of, what is possible?

The US can't afford a major war. EU doesn't have enough military might for any one country or even a small group of them to throw their weight around. China is unlikely to strike out but too big to take over. Any one of the big players (US, China, Russia) makes a move and they become vulnerable to at least one of the others.

It's a stalemate with each region doing whatever it wants within its own borders and lots of huffing and puffing across phone lines and through emails.

Just remember, we were always at war with Eurasia.

No good guys really.  They don't get to be in power by self-sacrifice for the greater good.  But generally, in my culture, the aggressor is deemed to be in the wrong.  Unless they win, in which case we work out a plausible pretext for the aggression.  But that doesn't fly until after you win historical dominance.


Clearly Putin's propaganda push has been very powerful, and useful to him domestically -- not really helpful internationally.  The Ukrainian side, much less coordinated, which leaves the media story mostly in the hands of the media conglomerates.  It's not all bankers and zionists and globalists.  Well, EU is pretty solidly globalist, but doesn't matter in this conflict, which is all Ukraine, Russia, and NATO.  NATO is pretty strongly dominated by the US-UK axis, but not entirely.  If there's enough political interest to prosecute a war  (and I'm sure energy interests, neo-cons want the winnings -- just not sure they are interested in or able to pay the cost of waging such a war)  NATO will come along.  

Putin didn't take Crimea for JPMorgan, at least not intentionally, of that I'm sure.

Risto self-moderates, allowing for "thread clean-up," but some feel it silences minority opinions and tends to be abused.  In any case, I've enjoyed reading this thread so far.


I am personally more of the opinion that if Putin stops at Crimea, then, like MatTheCat said, the West will wag their finger and do nothing.  Where I strongly disagree with MatTheCat is his opinion that a collapsed USD would also lead to a collapse in bitcoin.  I would argue that it is the existence of bitcoin--the existence of a neutral, robust, and decentralized alternative--that will give the Powers That Be permission to facilitate the collapse when doing so suits their purposes.    


<TINFOIL_HAT>

I became interested in economics about a decade ago, eventually coming to understand the house-of-cards that our debt-based fractional-reserve fiat money system represents.  Despite the cries from the gold-bug's, gold seemed inept as money for the information age to me.  How can you conduct trade across the globe with gold without the assistance of a third party or the permission of an authority?  It doesn't work in the collapse scenario that would unfold should a major currency crisis take place.  

If the world had lost its confidence in fraction-reserve banking during the Credit Crisis of 2008, I believe we would have seen dark times.  The big cities of the world are dependent on a constant inwards flow of food, goods, and energy.  If this flow become blocked--due to a sudden inability to conduct trade without sound money--a nightmarish scenario would unfold in population centers across the developed world.  Without a new monetary system "ready to go," there would not be enough time to build one up from scratch.  

Our collective consciousness realized this fragility in 2008.  This realization was both the justification for the bailouts, and the impetus for bitcoin.  Bitcoin was designed to provide an escape hatch from the fiat money system without a collapse of civilization in the cities.  

The people of the world are being educated on bitcoin and its resilience right now.  When it is needed, no one will care about money laundering or coin taint--they'll care that 5 years of constant attacks couldn't kill this thing.  We are the Guinea pigs.  We are working out the kinks with wallet security, malleabilty, etc., while educating those in our social circles.  

Meanwhile the infrastructure to support the transition to a bitcoin economy is rolling out across the globe.  Lamassu, Robocoin and a few others have taken orders for thousands of ATMs that are slowly being deployed in the wild, providing an escape route for the common man from his cash.  Second-Market and eventually the Winklevoss Trust will provide an escape route from legacy financial assets.  This infrastructure build-out will continue...  

When enough infrastructure is in place, and the public understands the need, we will see the great rotation out of fiat currencies.  What we are seeing play out on the world's stage with the Ukraine is the beginning of the story we will use to explain what precipitated the great rotation.  It will be a jubilee for the average debt-ladden citizen, a transfer of wealth from the financial dinosaurs who lack foresight to a younger generation of innovators, a relief from unpayable public entitlements, and a reshaping of the very concept of the nation state.

Despite all these changes, the existence of our highly-robust system for money known as bitcoin will be the glue that prevents society from falling apart.  Wealthy and powerful individuals will simply make their moves in peaceful ways largely unchallenged because the large institutional power structures would have largely collapsed.

It will mark the beginning of the age of the Sovereign Individual, and it will complete humanities transition to the information age.  

Looking back it will seem anti-climactic.  

</TINFOIL-HAT>
 

There is no innocence, only degrees of guilt.

Can the markets restrain Putin?

http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/3338899768001/can-the-markets-restrain-putin/#sp=show-clips

Right. In my mind, the Fed is going to turn the dial up in response to any kind of deflationary scenario. All the time and effort spent over the last 6 years or so, redefining the criteria for what a healthy economy looks like in terms of stock prices, employment, etc. doesn't need to be reworked for this to play out. All the groundwork has been set in place to print to infinity while pointing to these things. Ask a lemming about the economic recovery.

I guess the concern is that "trickle down" doesn't actually work, so this money might not be inherited by potential bitcoin users. In that case, the speed at which bitcoin reaches "Wall St." is a very important criteria to it's success. So the bear case could be made on this basis.

I think Russia will take the Crimea and nothing will be done about it. When the Russian bear flexes its military strength, the US isn't silly enough to get involved (besides atm it cannot afford another conflict). See Czech and Afghanistan for precedence. What the US can and has done is be vocal in its condemnation, and quite notably, fund oppostion groups in said countries (see mujahadeen). US / Russia fight conflicts by proxy, not directly.

What the US also does is threaten economically - financial warfare. Maybe they can ban trades with russian companies / banks etc, freeze accounts. But this is unlikely to be effective for the same concept that any military action would not - MAD. Militarily, whoever gets first mover nuke advantage just cops the second nuke loss in return. Both US & Russia have enough missiles to wipe each other off the map but to do it they sacrifice themselves, hence MAD.

MAD in a financial sense works 'well' against smaller countries like Brazil, Iran etc but wont wash with a superpower. Russia can dump treasuries, refuse to pay in dollar denominated amounts etc.

So what will this eventually mean?

Frightened stock markets, rise in the gold price. If and when btc shakes off the Gox crap, I believe it will also trend higher.

Only Belarus is really "eastern bloc", which now means dictatorships allied to Russia, I guess.  Moving far east, Uzbekistan is similar (even more brutal, semi-Islamic).  I dunno about Turkmenistan and Tajikistan, but Kyrgyzstan seems very tight with the U.S.  None of these are actually Putin's to give, and nobody is willing to pay the price to take them, I think, regardless of current proprietorship.

Geographically, Kaliningrad is interesting.  Russian enclave between Poland and Lithuania on the Baltic.  I can see why Lithuania is scared.

As for Crimea, the referendum is a joke and it is in fact under effective Russian military occupation, but honestly, it is like 90% ethnolinguistically Russian, and doesn't belong in Ukraine.  I am sure the west would give Putin Crimea, if they can get the Ukraine government to play along, which they almost certainly can, and there were a proper referendum, with actual meaningful choices on it.  The question in my mind is whether Putin can be kept from invading eastern Ukraine further, meaning, with armored, not just spetznaz and mercenaries.  That's when the serious conflict escalation begins.

You should revise that.
Just because Europe is at peace right now , it doesn't mean it's defenseless.


Rank      Country   Spending ($)[4][5]    % of GDP   Year of data
—      World total   1,756,000,000,000   2.5%   2012
—   NATO   NATO   990,932,000,000   2.5%   2012
1   United States   United States   682,478,000,000   4.4%   2012
—   European Union   European Union   274,213,000,000   1.7%   2012
2   China   People's Republic of China   166,107,000,000   2.1%   2012
3   Russia   Russia                    90,749,000,000   4.4%   2012

But really...
Putin nukes New York and we're concern about bitcoin?

Yeah... it seems most people in this thread live in a bunker.
When I hear about Russian nukes I don't think about bitcoin, I think about flying away from the big cities.

Looking at the map of Europe...where the hell is there a safe spot?
And there won't be too much flying with a war on.

It's not strictly a matter of how many guns we have. If that was the case the US would just stomp all over the world. Armies, and more importantly active armies, are funded by national economies, and they are crumbling. We simply can not afford to go to war, any of us. Not even if europe was one unit, which is far from the case.

Nobody can afford a full war and keep everything as usual at home.
But that's now how war is being fought. Changes will be made immediately and budgets won't be the same.

Of course numbers don't matter but let's not forget on what those money are spent.
Russia has a mandatory conscription for 12 months , insane amounts of money spent or recruits that won't make a difference in a real war.
I know what kind of soldiers this mandatory conscription makes (my country had this too) and how useless and money waster that is.

My opinion is that there will be no winner but the loser will be Russia.

1. Not everyone lives in Europe (I don't)
2. In case you're not aware, it is possible to leave Europe (look at a map)
3. I didn't mean flying literally (even though that would be the best way to flee)

Is there anybody still alive today who remembers when wars were fought between nations, not between banks? So much is tied to this currency war, it's sickening...

I don't even think that either outcome in Ukraine would matter. The world is clearly divided and both sides are dying; the only way to survive is to destroy the other and assimilate whatever resources remain. The fiat system can only "work" when it's globally uncontested, only one group can be allowed to rule. There needs to be zero international accountability for printing money and everybody knows it. The world isn't big enough for 2 big bank cartels...

It doesn't take a PhD to look at current world events and draw the conclusion that WW3 is inevitable. If not today; then another day... It's simply a matter of time, and there is no limit to what these bankers would do to make it happen. There's no doubt in my mind that they would be willing to kill any number of their own innocent countrymen just to show the people an enemy to rally against and prove that war is justified.

Technology changed the world too quickly and it wasn't according to plan. Without the explosive popularity of social media, we would probably be engrossed by global war already. The worst part is that there's not enough desire to prevent it from happening. People don't want transparency, the threat of proving that we've been taken advantage of is harder to pallet then keeping the blinders on without asking too many questions.

We can't even get a copy of Obamas birth certificate to verify his eligibility for Presidency...

Just stock up on non perishable foods and survival gear while you can, ARDUINO boards, servo motors, a diverse library of the various open-source software projects available today, and don't forget plenty of scrap electronics of all types. I think there's a good chance that many of us here would be able to find a use for these things to improve our quality of living when combined in interesting ways...

And stick them all in a metal box.  In case of a continent-scale EMP, you're the man.  A nice solar flare might make you rich.  Very tan perhaps, but rich.

Yeah , put also a few Iphone7S , they might get useful as lanterns after a nuke.

What you need is these babies...

http://www.vintchip.com/mainframe/BENDIXG-15/BENDIXBOARD-1.JPG

EMP & armageddon-proof 8)

Khodorkovsky the embezzler? I doubt he'd be much of an improvement.

I don't buy into this concept of overlooking the misdeeds of any nation because 'what the others did was way worse'. The reality is that in recent times the portrayal of Russia and the manner in which the West has engaged with it have been provocative and calculated to say the least. I don't think Putin has handled it too badly thus far.

If putin nukes new york the us will drop multiple nukes on russia and russia will drop even more nukes on the usa.
The major submarine internet cables would be destroyed and as a result the internet would split in a few large chunks forcing the blockchain to fork.
The value of bitcoin would drop by 99,99% and you wish you had invested in gold.

I think you would first wish you had invested in a bunker.

step 3 would be next.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/ukraines-gold-reserves-secretely-flown-out-and-confiscated-by-the-new-york-federal-reserve (http://www.globalresearch.ca/ukraines-gold-reserves-secretely-flown-out-and-confiscated-by-the-new-york-federal-reserve)
I don't know about the credibility of this site - orders to fill? I can't help imagining a crypto backed by gold somewhere, sometime..
I think also the division of ukraine had already been agreed but would require the will of the people, hence the usual, now very tired media circus.

Ah, but Khodorkovsky was a thief who handed over lots of Russia's natural wealth to wealthy western entities. He was a good thief. He gave us (our masters) their 'fair share' which is perhaps why he is getting a good write up in some western media outlets, certainly the ones that af-newbie is reading anyhow.

I really despair at the still existing level of ignorance and stupidity of the general public when it comes to foreign affairs and policy. Although to be honest, I think the majority of the full retard posts I am reading on here is coming from US based members.


Why would the federal reserve have any former soviet block nation's gold? I can't imagine Joe Stalin approving of that one post WW2.

Edit: Just read it, don't believe it. Classic sensationalist and biased journalistic get out clause. Quoting a third source.

NEWSFLASH! NATO NATIONS WILL NOT TOLERATE CRAZED WAR MONGER PUTIN. USA TO LEAD TASK FORCE TO GO AND KICK PUTIN'S ASS! (according to aminorex, a testosterone fuelled gung-ho forum idiot incapable of informed and rational thought)

^^^ Indeed , run for the hills , or the bunkers.
No war will happen , and now now at least.

I for one have a much simpler view on all of this:

a) The west/NATO will not go anywhere near this, no matter what russia does to crimea or Ukraine, it's simply not worth it now (No offence Ukraine).

b) Western thinking on the degree to which Russia/Putin can gradually be brought into the fold of the trading democratised world has been radically reversed by these actions.

c) We won't cut our nose to spite our face with massive immediate sanctions, simply because Europe is overly dependant on Russian gas, and cannot stomach any tit for tat sanctions with Russian gas (yet!).

d) The west in general will implement a much longer term strategy to reduce the energy dependance on russia, THEN switch to the very successfull Regan strategy of breaking them financially with either arms races or sanctions. This is already happening to some degree with massive and accelerating flight of capital and international investment from Russia. The Ruble is now a broken currency.

e) Third strike! (Stalin,Cold War, Ukraine) Once broken, it will be 50 years (A generations memory) before anyone even re-considers Russia as fit to rejoin the civilised world again.

I thought this part was amusing. Mayhap Russia feels that the west is not fit to join the civilized part of the world. Personally, I have not considered the west a civilized place for some time. Other than that general agreement with your post.

Lol, depends how far west you go! personally I consider this green and pleasent land (England) pretty civilised by world standards. My wife and I did joke though, that perhaps we should invite Ukraine to take Scotlands place in the United Kingdom! (Especially since they seem to speak better English!)

What is with the 'we' and the 'our'? You think the whole population of the West is in this together? You think that the Western established powers, who have long been in a process of baiting Russia and Putin, ever since he put a stop to the mass plunder of Russian resources, give a flying fk about you or your well being? Are you getting any kick backs from any business deals done by tying the Ukrainian economy up with Western finance? Are your investments in the US weapons industry in line for a big dividend pay out if/when Ukraine signs up to get a series of NATO missile bases along it's borders with Russia?

If you are indeed gaining in some way thanks to US/NATO's constant baiting of Russia and China and their direct and indirect meddling within their spheres of influences, bringing the whole world closer and closer to a WW3 scenario; then my apologies, perhaps you do have the slightest clue about wtf is going, and are just a bit of an evil cunt. More likely however, is that you just don't really have much of clue and perhaps you need to take some lessons in geo-politics.

Perhaps Putin doesn't want to be 'brought into the fold of Western democratised world', because that generally means giving up national sovereignty and having your economy and resources exploited by the Western establishment.

On the otherhand, it is at least refreshing to see that you at least recognise that any talk of sanctions was as I previously stated, always going to be nothing more than trumpet blowing and general tough talk, whilst the West walks the walk in the complete opposite direction of any confrontation with Putin, whilst he does what the fuck he wants when it comes to business in his own backyard. 21 travel bans for some Russian officials involved in organising Crimean elections....."oooh, you naughty naughty boys! don't ever do that again or we shall get very very cross indeed!"

Thank fk for Vladimir Putin. The longer he is a thorn in the side of the West the longer it is before the West can start seriously crushing China, which is the end game here and a very very dangerous one at that.

I hear brits are a minority in London now. Mass immigration is a sign of end times. No culture in all of recorded history has ever survived sub-replacement fertility coupled with native displacement. This is one of those cases where I would like to be wrong, so if you, or anyone, knows of a counterexample do share.

No culture survives a change of generations either.

The Leninists kept Marxism alive.  In so doing they killed Marxism.  The bishops and councils preserved Orthodoxy through the centuries.  In so doing, they destroyed orthodoxy.  The Khazars saved Judaism from annihilation.  In so doing, they annihilated Judaism.   

Little sense there is, in nostalgia for what you do not have the will to hold today.

Well I did warn you I had a much 'simpler' view of what was happening!
However, since geopolitics are a matter of (media managed) perspective, it is somewhat naive of you (and possibly me) to talk in absolutes of 'the situation'. However i've also lived in most regions of the world and spend as much time watching Russian, Japanese, French and Chinese tv as I do the BBC, and the only absolutes i've been able to distil out of all those hours are:

i.   Most of the world hates America.
ii.  Russia believes most of the world hates it, but they don't (Just Putin).
iii. Neither Russian or American politicians can be trusted to uphold international law.
iv. Every single news channel is utterly biased (including the BBC) Al Jazeera being the possible exception.
v.  North Korean news casters are funny  :)

You agree, in other words, but exaggerated to such a degree that it loses all meaning and, in fact, becomes something you laugh at. This is not useful.

You may be right there, but one town does not a country make!
In fact I recently heard the Lord Mayor of London refer to it as 'The Capital Of The World', and as a general observation he could be right! London is like unofficial UN, it's where people of the world come to do what we all want to do in peace 'make good business' (Quoting from 3 Kings film there).

There are an awful lot of Russians in London also, and I strongly suspect with the new EU policy negotiations on Russian Visa's now being cancelled, that there will soon be an lot less! I wonder if Putin should be stepping in to protect those poor russians in London whose rights are not being upheld, perhaps russian tanks should role down the mall!

Oh and by the way, you wanted a counter example, the Brit's survived the Viking invasions/displacements, and genetic testing has shown that the original Gene pool re-asserted itself afterwards, or simply put the Viking gene is now almost completely absent from British gene pool again! So there is hope!

Why does every conflict end up in a world war? I read these everytime there is a fight... Nothing is smaller than when the mosques in Iran are bombed..iraq iran is the cause of any war nothing else.

Putin will not nuke New York. He wouldn't need to to win and he has other options available to him. He's a chess player and he won't risk his king (himself). From western news sources, you wouldn't know it, but he's been losing for years. He may have taken South Osettia and Abkhazia (sp?), but he lost Georgia, Home of Stalin. He's not gaining the Crimea. He's losing half of Ukraine (or more).

All Putin has to do is remind the West of how they supported autonomous regions Like Kossovo in the past and to claim the Crimea is simply another such case of self-determination. Really, the hypocrisy of the West is stunning. I'm a veteran, so I know that American troops will not want to face a real army for the first time in our lifetimes over some Ukrainian shithole. What's the principle at stake? No, the West will arm the Ukranians, let them fight it out on their own and they will likely get slaughtered. Their only way out is to cede The Crimea and Eastern Ukraine to Putin and draw new borders.

Basically, Putin inherited a nation in disarray and has put Russia towards superpower status. The West are broke and relatively weak at the moment, and are demonising him in the media (Syria, Pussy Riot, gay rights at Sochi etc.), because a strong Russia is a strong rival. Ukraine is the latest example.

Putin has played his hand in Crimea and Ukraine with the intention of preventing the installation of NATO missile defence systems in Ukraine. The dominant Russian ethnolinguistic nature of Crimea and the referendum ensures that Putin is seen to have acted legitimately in the eyes of much of the international community, despite is isolation that the Western media talk of. Crucially, China have not condemned the annexation of Crimea, and this strengthens any territorial claims China might make in the future within its own sphere of influence (South China Sea). I'm interested to see the extent of the sanctions and how the BRIC nations react. Will more nations start defying the US?

Russia is a regional power, not a superpower. They have no manufacturing base and make money only by selling off natural resources. And there is negative population growth. Thank God Ukraine was not admitted into NATO or we really would be on the brink of WWIII. It won't happen. Expect an outcome similar to what happened in Georgia.

The parallels between Poland 75 years ago and Ukraine today are interesting.

Ibian, I wasn't laughing.  But now I am:

WASHINGTON (The Borowitz Report)—In what was described as a major ramping up of sanctions, Secretary of State John Kerry announced on Tuesday that the United States had frozen Russian President Vladimir Putin’s Netflix account, effective immediately.

“Unless and until Mr. Putin calls off the annexation of Crimea, no more ‘House of Cards’ or ‘Orange Is the New Black’ for him,” Mr. Kerry said. “The United States will not stand by and reward the annexation of another sovereign nation with a policy of streaming as usual.”

While all of the sanctions Mr. Kerry announced on Tuesday were Netflix-related, he warned Mr. Putin that “nothing is off the table.”

“I’m sure I don’t need to remind the Russian President that ‘Game of Thrones’ is about to come back for another season,” he said. “As I have said, this thing could get very ugly, very fast.”

Uh. No. Both blood and language mixed during the viking invasion. The original people, and their language, are long gone. The current brits are a mix of vikings and those who lived there originally, among others. The original people are gone and will never return.

And a timeline for "hope" of a thousand years is not precisely helpful to those of us living in the present...

This make no geo political sense.

Russia and China are far from friends, it would be much better to be friendly with Russia to have China contained.

Inmho, there is enough intercine issues in russia, china and likely US to keep them all looking over their shoulders.

Go and take another look at what is going on. Take your time over it and come back and have another go at making a wise statement on the matter. Russia may not be great m8s with China but Russia are their own sovereign nation, Russia will use her political weight to suit her own independent objectives, and that is clearly no good to the US. Just look at Syria. If not for Russia, Syria would be another Libya or Iraq by now. Russia is a major spanner in the works for the US/Israeli foreign policy agenda. Russia needs to be brought to heel.

The US thought they could simply fund a Ukrainian insurrection against the government there, replace it with an ultra anti-Russian, pro EU/NATO regime, and start setting up shop there. They thought they could, but it turns out they couldn't....and now they are banning Mr Putin's Netflix account or whatever.

Sorry your most definately wrong there Ibian, the Gene pool research was comprehensive and definitive (Professor Jobling from Leeds University I believe).  It was a study aimed at understanding the effects of fresh gene pools on established ones, and it basically showed that unless the new gene pool built and maintained a critical percentage (Cannot remember the exact figure, but I think it was about 30%) of the old gene pool, that the old gene pool would reassert itself and gradually dilute out the new gene pool over time. Hence my statement that Brits are Brits not Viking muts is true! Language is of course intermixable, and to some extent we are all language muts.

Edit: Quote from his research: "Jobling found little evidence that mtDNA sequences characteristic of Norwegian populations were present in either the medieval or modern group of British men"

Don't really care to discuss it, but just noting that it was a Danish led invasion. Why would norwegians matter. They were there, but not as any kind of majority. It's the entire scandinavian people you need to look at, but mostly danes. Also a link to the study would be nice.

BTC would be far far more resilient than any current banking system, there are just to may nodes that can start up to easily in so many places.

The block chain is going to be beamed down from space soon.....

Economic war leads to physical war pretty quickly as evidenced . Is BRICS still on the table. What's the Russian btc market like?

Gas and oil pipelines.

If we had no Putin, WWIII would be already all around us here in the EU. He is a good and clever man. Did not fall to all US/EU/Nato provocations and false flags.

World War II was World War I part 2

so then this next work, being World War II part 2 makes this next war WORLD WAR I PART 3

shits going down.


 

Sorry, needed to correct that one.

Years ago I heard the Russian navy's base in Sevastopol on the Black Sea (in Crimea) was the only easy way the Russian navy could reach the Atlantic. Russia cannot give it up without giving up it's only easy route to the Atlantic, so it's unlikely it will back down.

Russia has no direct outlets except on the Pacific Ocean and the White and Arctic Seas. To reach the Atlantic, the ships must travel along devious routes: in the north via the Finnish Gulf, the Baltic Sea, and the North Sea; in the south through the Black Sea, the Dardanelles, and the Mediterranean.

In its early history, Russia's only ports were on the Arctic Ocean and frozen shut for much of the year.

I don't know about anything else, but you need to freshen up on your geography lessons.
I have one word for you: Murmansk

"The port of Murmansk remains ice-free year round due to the warm North Atlantic Current"
"Red october"...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AWPBr4L1eyE

These Wikipedia links contradict you.

Only one Russian seaport in the Barents Sea en route the officially defined Northern Sea Route which begins at the Kara Gates Strait is ice-free all year round, Murmansk on the Kola Peninsula.

The term "ice free" generally refers to the absence of fast ice, i.e. continuously frozen surface ice sheet cover. Under common usage "ice free" does not mean that there is no Arctic sea ice. "Ice free" regions can contain broken ice cover of varying density, often still requiring appropriately strengthened hulls or ice breaker support for safe passage.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Sea_Route


The southern half of the Barents Sea, including the ports of Murmansk (Russia) and Vardø (Norway) remain ice-free year round due to the warm North Atlantic drift.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barents_Sea

http://s23.postimg.org/u2pbi24cb/barents.png

The screenshot above shows the Barents Sea is located in the Arctic Ocean.

Contradict what? You were saying how they did not have access to Atlantic....because it is "frozen shut for much of the year"
I showed you a link that says..."ice free year-round" in Murmansk and Atlantic is "around the corner", so grow up and say "thanks", buddy...

And I showed you a link that says under common usage "ice free" does not mean that there is no Arctic sea ice. "Ice free" regions can contain broken ice cover of varying density, often still requiring appropriately strengthened hulls or ice breaker support for safe passage

How can the entire Russian fleet navigate from Murmansk to the Atlantic if most of its ships are unlikely to have appropriately strengthened hulls or ice breaker support for safe passage?

Also navigating from Murmansk in the Arctic Ocean to the Atlantic is a little further than "around the corner".

Putin is not evil, but the western corporate-owned media sure does try to make him out to be.

Putin and his compatriots in China are attempting to stand up to the new world order.

The conflict in Ukraine was funded by the west, and the CIA operates constantly in Kiev.

The new coup government in Ukraine wants to try to join NATO, a clear provocation and step towards world war 3, inspired by the west.

The nazi junta government in Ukraine regularly carries out shelling on civilians and conducts ethnic cleansing.

Who is really evil here? Is it the west for funding fascist neo-nazis and helping the gain power in ukraine simply because they oppose russia? Or is it Putin for trying to look out for the interests of Russia underneath the constant threat of NATO expansion and provocation?

this.

I really like to read about speculation about next world war.
But I think war is really bad, I hope It wouldn't come true.
war just waste a lot of money, and make many people suffer.

Wealthy and powerful in a post apocalyptic Thunderdome world?

I don't see a downside to this.   ;D

You have to check correct wiki articles.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Fleet

Moreover, here is something else:
http://natocouncil.ca/russias-resurgent-navy-assessing-the-northern-fleet/

Ok, it looks like I was wrong. Thanks for the links.

Ok, glad to help.

Didn't WW2 happen in 1941?

What is the purpose of this topic?

The best 2 years of your life  :o ;D