Bitcoin Forum

It's down to $10,900.  It was at $13,600 yesterday. What the hell is going on !?!?

Like a fool I bought some at $13,600. Regrets?

Dude, buying anything when it's right at the top is a rookie mistake.  My advice to you is to control your emotions, which in this case was probably fear--of missing out, and probably a little bit of euphoria that the price had risen so high.

IMO, bitcoin at $13k right now is scary.  It should not be that high given that it was only at $3500 recently.  When you get a price rise like this, watch out.  I would recommend never buying at such a time but rather wait until there's a dip or a correction.  In this case, we did get a dip. 

Don't feel badly that you did what you did, but learn from it so you don't make the same mistake next time.  No trader does everything perfectly, and you're not the only one who's done this.

Chill the F out. Bitcoin can go both ways fast. If you missed that point then your TA sticks balls.
Bitcoin is no sure shot. Emotions will get you bankrupted.
Just HODL and you will be talking about how well you invested in a month.

Or pussy out at a loss  ;)

No, HODL until 12-18 months after the halving & you’ll be laughing. Bitcoin is a long term investment. I started buying in 2014 & I was in big losses until the tide turned. You might have to wait but bitcoin always goes up. Just be patient & trust in the process.

I bought more at 3500, 4500, 5500, 8500, 9100, and 13600....

The flesh eating monsters are eating me up inside.

So you have one less optimal trade... Boo hoo 😎
Take it like a man and wait for the profit to come.

When prices go up that fast, a drop/correction is bound to happen, such drop should give you a nice window to buy cheap before the uptrend continues.

Classic example of FOMO buying. That usually happens to newcomers who don't do their homework, you should've known that: 1) BTC is extremely volatile, one day it can go up 20%, next day it can go down 20% or even lower, 2) You just don't buy Bitcoin when is having a massive spike in the price, that's basic stuff, if you end up buying, you risk getting burned (if you're expecting short-term profits, of course).

Now that you know how the market works, all you gotta do is hodl (or buy more if we so sub 10k), don't be one of those weak hands panic sellers who dump their coin when red numbers start showing up on the charts.

Pretty standard correction on a daily rocket ride.

10% up on the week.  8)

Just hold. When bitcoin will be $100k you will fell like it was a good buy.

What is going on? Is market manipulation. In 2 days price went 25% up and now in on day 25 down. If you bought at 13k and sell now you will just give this people that manipulated market profit. So dont do it.  But dont worry others will. :)

I made an error buying at 13,600 but oh well. The first thing I read in the morning was the Coinbase news, then I saw the price dropped. I bought my coin at Coinbase yesterday at 13,600. Regardless of any of that I am not one to hold on after a parabolic is over and down trending, I would rather sell and wait. I think the parabolic is over with.

Okay okay okay... I am logging off. I need to chill and take your advice's.

👍🏻

Bitcoin goes up. Bitcoin does down. Can't explain that.

Seriously though, this is normal for bitcoin. The run up last time wasn't smooth sailing either. We hit $11.5k, then dropped back to $9k. Then we hit $18k, then dropped back to $13k.

The price essentially doubled in a month. As recently as April we were still at $4k. If you expected this run to continue uninterrupted to $20k, $50k, $100k, whatever, then you haven't been paying attention. I'm pretty glad we have pulled back now, actually. The run up was too much too fast - we were always going to see a correction, and if it hadn't come now, it would have been far larger when it came later, and many more people would have been burned. I hope we stabilize around $10-11k and sit there for a month or more.

My advice is always this: If you believe in the tech and the future of bitcoin, and are not actively trying to trade (i.e. you are holding for the long term) then short term daily to weekly price fluctuations don't matter. The price trend over months to years is what matters for you. Since the daily trends don't matter, stop paying attention to them and stressing yourself out unnecessarily.

This is what you call a correction, it is inevitable, we just have a mini-bubble forming already and it has been burst. Many analysis has been calling $13500 the top before facing another massive drop, so this is it. I'm sorry to hear that you FOMO and entered at the top, but you can't do anything, unless you are willing to sell, exit and willing to suffer a loss. So If I'm in your shoes, I won't panic though, let the market goes into a correction and wait till everything settles down.

Most traders during their careers have made the mistake of buying at the top, depending on how much you bought when the price was low the average price of your coins should still be way below 10k so you are still in profits despite the huge movement down we are experiencing, as some other users have recommended you this is the moment to remain calm and follow your strategy, since you bought at different moments during this growth I suppose you also have an exit strategy, if your strategy tells you to hold then do it even if it is painful to see some of your profits evaporate, in a few years those losses will be nothing compared to the profits you will get.

This is good advice, worth taking a look at how the guys who've been around five years are gauging this move.   Going back to the full circle dips and peaks, what they say or do will vary from experience.

Its actually good for the price to pull back and establish properly after a peak like we've had.    Volaility is apparent when price is moving in only one direction, people are happy while it lasts but its negative not to allow new entrants into the market at some lower pricing.
Its very possible the real run is going to centre around halvening.   The point I would add in at that time frame is that I really think the halvening has most effect after, the price rising beforehand is nice for some but its speculation; where as Iam really bullish on BTC fundamentals that favour higher price

It shouldn't come as a surprise that when the price rockets up with 20% in one single day, which is a shitcoin level pump, that it tanks with the same or even higher percentage.

The block halving is like 11 months away from here so just keep holding your coins and use the lower price (if you have fiat left) to scoop up some more coins to lower your overall buying price. I am strongly of believe that this is a healthy correction and we're going to break through the resistance around $14,000 and shoot well past it.

Not watching the charts? The spike of BTC is just unbelievable, you gotta see that coming.


That would be too much of a wait. It probably won't take that long to break the resistance at $14k.  Breakout can happen in maybe 2-3 months. If you are a long term holder, price should be worth if you wait up to 12-18 months. For you to not commit same mistake, you limit the amount of money to put in the exchange $2000 is just about right so you won't regret when this happen. But buying while at the ATH is just not a good idea.

I have posted much about why 13k is unsustainable, check out my other topic:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5158923.0 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5158923.0)

Use true data for your investment choices not fervor and emotions.

Hope this helps my friend,

Aaron

Correction is really due, I mean the massive pump from $10k->$13.5K is what last 2-3 days? That's an indication that either someone is manipulating the price or FOMO is pushing the price to form a bubble. But I'm sure the OP knows, the risk, but I'm still optimistic that we're still in the bullish trend and the price could go vertical again so just hodl on it.

Don't trust the charts. Check volumes and price swings on different exchanges then do your decision. I've been into your situation countless of times and I have only trusted the charts and price trackers and never looked deeper into the action. $13500 is definitely not the price range we should be in currently, due to the fact that it came so rapidly without any solid backing. It's obvious that it was a pump after all and will not hold for long due to low volumes on the buying side and a huge number of sell orders listed.

Do not go by emotion and always check data and volumes, not just the prices.

Please be aware that the volumes are regularly over inflated, due to the massive amount of wash trades and falsified data.

What kind of data do you use and where do you find it?

I use creation costs and risk analysis, which I find on this site here:

https://www.amsinger.org (https://www.amsinger.org)

Manipulation is rampant in crypto, as a veteran I'm just used to it,

Aaron

We know that market always like this it goes up and drop but i think the best you can do is hold your emotions dont panic because btc drops. Its normal in the market and it will back on track again just be more patience.

It's nothing out of the ordinary. It's simply a correction, that was bound to come sooner or later.

I'm not sure why you'd expect anything else, even, given the fact that the growth we've seen over the past week was simply unsustainable. The rallies that we saw up to $13k+ was mostly a result of FOMO buying due to the hype of BTC going through the $10k resistance, which has psychological significance to investors, and perhaps some short squeezes as well.

These short term cycles are quite common in any asset class, not just BTC. I don't think that buying at that level was necessary a bad trade per se, given that you have the patience and belief in BTC in the long term. It seems like the $10k support has been tested and it held up nicely, which is a bullish sign.

Typical volatility. You can't rise $1,000+ a day and not expect insane volatility. There is a massive amount of emotion in this market right now. FOMO, greed, fear. Some people are massively over-leveraged. Add very thin order books into the equation and you've got a recipe for fast whipsaws that run through large ranges.

Everybody gets chopped up!


You FOMO'd hard, LOL. I was on the other end of it. I saw a $2,000 daily candle and started selling into it. I was kicking myself for selling too early (began slightly below $13K) but I'm perfectly happy now.

I believe we will be back above your buy-in in the coming weeks, or at most, months.

Accepted that it is regrettable why we don't sell our coins during that days when the price is high. We don't do it cause we want more and we think that it will continue to go higher, but it drops down unexpectedly which nobody predicting that will happen. But nothing to do with that, that's actually will possibly to happen. It could be a big lose those who buy Bitcoin at $11k.

to get worse, fell to $ 10500


I do not know what happened, but I can assume that some people may have thought that the price would not exceed $ 14000 and that it was their chance to get high returns and avoid repeating the same thing that happened in December 2017 or second option may be because may not have been able to break the resistance you had at $ 13900. anyway, I was not expecting such a big price drop, it was a 20%


just Hold

Maybe some of the Bitcoin bullish is not really a real demand but just a big whales pump and they are now claming it. I also heard yesterday that there is another hacked exchange incident that if its true then they are selling all stolen Bitcoin but anyway this is not the end of your Bitcoin investment just a little patience and keep on holding as this bullish interruption will end quickly.

Why is the OP freaking out about a correction? Did he not expect a correction after a parabolic move (topping off with 20% in one day!)??

A correction back to $10k was pretty obvious.

Before saying anything,  you need to understand
How the price of a particular coin affects.
So the price of BTC affects when the trading volume of the coin is more.
At that time the trading volume was more,  so the price was kept on increasing,
But now the volume has came little down, so we are seeing a downfall of the coin.
This is normal.

Higher price tends to bring in new faces, new names and speculators because its a hot stock.     It could be a positive thing for BTC to attract such attention but really its the long term factors that matter most, there is a natural froth type action and that also explains why it can pull back at least as much again.

I will attempt to address Hell and extrapolate exactly what is going on, of course with such a rapid situation much attention is required and rapid adjustment.   Right this moment, I'm forced to be bullish because we attempted to close below some support and it failed to achieve this so we go back up.

Every time I ignore a touch of support like that I regret it as within a day its off to the races again.   However I do find the Asia trading hours such as now do tend to be more bullish then the rest of the world.  Again thats just my impression.

https://i.imgur.com/FVS2Vi8.png

A quick snippet of my graph and an attempt to show how we have failed in an attempt to break downwards, hence remain bullish it would seem most likely.   For anyone who dont like charts, just notice the long pins and we 'bounce' above white (also blue) line.   Takes 24hr to really soak in maybe

What?
You thought you could win them all? lol

I think he buys bitcoin at a very high price and that makes him panic to see the price is down deeper. I think many people are not expected to see the correction to happens and they are shocked to see the bitcoin price has turned to go down. The down of the bitcoin price gives a chance for us to buy bitcoin at a very low price, and I am sure that some of us can buy at that price.

the "effing hell" that is going on is a big ass rally that has kick started the bull market this year and has been going on for a couple of months already. your problem is that you were asleep all this time or probably fooled by the FUD that were telling you to wait for the price to go down to $1000, then you waited for it to happen but since it never did you panic bought way too late when bitcoin was starting to get reach for a correction. now you are stuck and confused.

now instead of panicking you should start looking at the mistakes you have made over the past 6 months instead of only focusing on the past 3 days. that way you may learn something and be more successful over the coming years where the same thing repeats over and over.

I think what's going on is the start of a speculative bubble the likes of which we've all seen a handful of times

topics like this are either made for trolling just because they saw the drop, or they are made by absolute beginners who thought bitcoin price must only go up without ever have any kind of correction! that is why a lot of them are created each time price makes a big move...


... the bubble that will shape up at least a year from now.

I think it will be fine, we have dropped to 10.900 at bottom but now we are over 11.8k once again which means as you can see bitcoin is not going to die, its not going down, it went down a bit but afterwards it went up again, which means its not continuing to go down.

If it went down to 10.9k then it went down even more I would be scared too but after it went down it skyrocketed back up so we have nothing to fear. Check out the prices of bitcoin every single day when you wake up, if it looks more than what it was the day before then it is doing fine, every single morning you wake up the price keeps going higher and higher. That is why I wholeheartedly think that bitcoin is just fine, corrections do happen and it should, as long as we do not keep going down we will be fine.

The range is getting tighter and tighter, and with that said, we wicked below $10.9k for a moment today. I personally think the range between $10-$10.3k holds more importance, but we're not there yet (for now).

The thing with testing the same support levels is that they tend to get weaker after every touch, just like the spikes up do by forming lower highs. There is however nothing to be afraid of. People wanted a correction, so here it is.

People just need to accept that the price going down as hard as it went up is normal for Bitcoin. Stop being so shortsighted and learn how to benefit from shorts if you worry so much about short term fluctuations.

Currently it is at $10,939 with a short graveyard doji now on the 3 year chart.

Pain. Suffering. Not this again...

Or maybe I will buy more tomorrow if it goes down further. But i cant. Already overextended.

^^ Post this graveyard doji for me and others less educated on such things please or give me a link and I'll post a picture of it.    3years is a really long time and distance to be measuring matters now, a moving average would at least include many different prices in its level.

you mean the 3-day chart?

it's not a pretty candle but at least gravestone dojis indicate strong buying pressure within the body of the candle. buying pressure is still present; we may just need some more consolidation to work through the profit taking and over-leveraged long liquidations.

right now, i could honestly see good cases being made for both bull and bear scenarios. i'm personally hoping for a dip into the $9000s before buying back but i'm starting to lose hope we'll get there. it's funny how two people on opposite sides of the market can both be in pain at the same time. that's how markets are i guess!

You people do not watch the charts? You a blind? There are bearish red candles all over the place.

Shaking in my boots.

If the chart fooled you twice then shame on you :) It must be disappointing for those who bought at $12K most are aiming to dump at $13k lol It stick for about 2 days on $12k. Christ the buy and sell orders are just meant to increase its price.

I did sold some of my altcoins and hold for usdt for now, it its going to dip down to $8k I'd buy back now just the coins I sold but some BTC. I lost about $300 for being late to dump though but I guess I can ignore it now that I can am gaining few.

He got caught from the fake pump.  ;D

I have seen this went down for like just hours that I went away and used my smartphone as means of looking at the candlestick.
at 7/26 it was almost 13k USD and then fell at 7/27 until 11k USD.
Yes it hurts for you were like getting your hopes high and then fear of missing out added up.
Bought at the price which is so high and then cannot have the ROI.

It is a volatile market so do not worry. You are just being impatient by now and you need to control it.

The buying strength is weak and that is the reason why the market behaves that way. You bought at the wrong price based on the current bull market. Many investors are getting disappointed most time because of buying when professionals are selling and selling when professionals are buying. If you can be patient enough there is no way you are not going to recover when the next bull started again. For now, the buying sentiment is low and trades are taking the advantage to sell and buy low again. As at this moment bitcoin even went below $10,100 and it might still go down further.

No point in laughing at someone for their mistakes. On the hindsight when BTC crosses this year's ATH, this correction, no matter how low it sinks, will not matter.

The market had a crazy ride for a while and it broke all resistance for over a month and now we are consolidating and we are seeing a small correction, never expect the market to rally all the time, you made your decision to enter when the price was riding which is always a bad idea, there is nothing to regret as the market will recover again, just be patient and look for the market in the long term rather than panicking, we all expect that the market will touch another all time high valuation after halving  ;).

you only feel that way because you bought the top. it's okay---happens to the best of us! but that's exactly the sort of emotional response buying before a big correction elicits. it's a classic shakeout mentality. the market is trying to shake you out.

if you zoom out to higher time frames, these red candles are pretty small in magnitude. the uptrend is intact. in % terms this is not so far beyond the downside we saw in the may correction. and we should have expected a large correction too, since this last leg up was huge. nearly a doubling in price, 85% off the $7500 low.

CBOE announcing delisting Bitcoin Futures on Saturday is enough to make Bitcoin crashes by $3000 ::)
I expected a correction anyway, but after Bitcoin touched the $13,000 I didn't expect such a correction, rather something like $1k-$1.5k. There's also news about 500 million sold on Bitmex (or something like that) maybe it's tied too.

i just sold all my purchase for $13,600 at $10,270 taking the loss. I think we are in for a big drop. I will buy back at a lower price

Shaky. Making mistakes right now probably. Next I plan to convert all my BTC to USDC. I am out for now.

All the good news out there is not lining up with the price right now. I do not like it.

Uh oh. Did we just see capitulation? I was really hoping for a push into the $9,000s. 8)


I don't think the CBOE had anything to do with it. They announced in March (https://www.coindesk.com/cboe-puts-brakes-on-bitcoin-futures-listing) they would stop listing new XBT contracts so it was essentially old news already.

I would like to see 9 too. If buying at 9 I would gain back my losses faster at that price. But I sense the price is going down to 8.

Truthfully I was overextended and needed the money in my bank account but who knows.

3000 USD? I don't think so, at this price I would sell my car and all my stuff to buy BTC  ;D

I was expecting a correction at 10k, but BTC reached 13.8k, so the correction will be bigger, but in my opinion will drop to something like 8,6k, nothing less

This here^^  I think it is going to be a violent drop.

It surely does matter, but people however don't think it does because they are busy being upset about how they bought the top and 'lose' money now the price goes down. It blinds them in such a way that they are losing out unnecessarily.

Buying at the top and seeing the price tank afterwards is something I would see as an opportunity. It allows me to lower my average buying price by buying the dip so that I reach my break-even point much sooner.

In my opinion the market as a whole is still bullish, but people need to understand that corrections and consolidation phases are common in every market. What did people think, that the price would reach $20k next week?

I say this with the best will in the world, but perhaps trading crypto isn't for you. A correction was pretty much inevitable after such a rapid price increase. Despite this, you overextended and put in more than you could afford to lose, saying that you "needed the money" back. Despite the inevitable correction, when it came you panicked and sold at a loss.

There was a period of 6 months where the price was $3-$4k. That was the time to buy, not after a parabolic run up to $13k. You bought at the worst time, and then immediately sold at a loss when the run didn't continue. I'm not trying to be cruel, but trading might not be for you, and if it is, I would suggest you spend a lot more time learning about it first with much smaller amounts of money. If at any point you are "shaking" when thinking about your money, you have put in way too much.

Good you mentioned, so we know you very new in here and with BTC, one of the first rules when you are buying in these stages, don't only be price driven and learn more about bitcoin, this forum is full of good stuff, good advices etc

Just learn and meanwhile keep buying BTC every week or month for the same amount of FIAT whitout watching the price.... HODL what you bought and think long-term,  while learning the long term perspective....  the just think long-term will be switched into an obsession of BTC, where you will find the struggle to just try increasing stash as fast as possible ---> here you will become a coiner, as you will try to use BTC for more daily stuff etc, you will experiment with it and thats how it has to be

Embrace BTC

Old news, but more importantly, very good news because CBOE no more listing fake Bitcoin futures means that people can't short Bitcoin without owning any coins themselves.

Liquidated shorts, which isn't anything surprising with how the price went up to levels people wouldn't be able to guess beforehand. Bitmex has had hundreds of millions of short liquidations before. It's not an unusual occurrence.

Short liquidations? Pretty sure those are long liquidations as a liquidated long closes out usually at or near market price. Still agree with everything else though, usually you get large amounts of liquidations on larger market movements as various positions get liquidated and wild wicks can happen.

It had no effect on spot prices though. The CBOE contracts were just an isolated derivative market, gamblers matching bets with other gamblers for cash. I don't see a problem with that. People should be able to trade whatever they want.

Bitfinex seems like it should bother you more. It allows people to short BTC on the spot market using fiat collateral.

No one knows.If you do able to read up this time and on the current market price it did went down below 10k sub price.

The reason? as I said earlier which no one really knows.Regretting is unavoidable yet this is always been part of the risk on investing to cryptos
which price volatility would always be your prime enemy.

In my last run of things here, it is like Bitcoin is a bad investment. Even in a bull run you can lose. Why? Fees. And obviously all these mistakes I have made. The ups and downs and no rhyme and no real reason. It was like the perfect storm of mistakes with fees tacked onto everything.

Do you want to withdrawal from Binance? Pay fees.
Want to deposit into Binance? Pay fees again.
Send to Ledger wallet? Fees.
Send out of Ledger wallet? More fees.
Buy at Coinbase? Big fees.
Send out of Coinbase? Fees.
Sell at a loss at Coinbase. Fees. Taxes on losses? Who knows.
Convert from BTC to stable coin at Binance? You need to buy BNB. That costs more fees.

It is not looking like a great investment module at the moment.

I converted more of BTC to USDC at $10,000 when it was sinking like a stone. Now it is at $10,444. It is just loss after loss with fees fees fees..... and more fees. These wallets and these exchanges do not even always make it easy or transparent with the fees they take... it is like, Surprise, you just pay fees for sending your coin around. What really bugs me is the fees seems unnecessary. It seems like Bitcoin should be traded and transferred for FREE...

I really need to take a break with this. Every time I sell the price goes up. When I buy price goes down. I am way behind every curve.

Look at fees vs. the potential gains. From bottom to top in June, Bitcoin rose almost 90%! Who cares about a 0.0005 BTC to withdraw from Binance in that context?

If I were you, I would transfer less though. I keep coins at Coinbase, Binance, and personal wallets all at once. No need to transfer back and forth all the time until I'm literally cashing out to my bank account.

You're in the US right? No taxes on losses. In fact, you can deduct up to $3K losses to offset other income. If you trade as a business (self-employed) then you can deduct all your losses when calculating net business income.


You don't need BNB. They just incentivize you to hold it for the trading discounts.


Take a break from trading and escape those emotions for a while. It'll do you good.

I made money from the whole ordeal and I am still disenfranchised. I was trading really well until this mini parabolic pattern.

Bitcoin was up to $13000
I bought at $13600 (from CoinBase)
I viewed this weird free Bitcoin giveaway by Winklevoss it was like Bitcoin crack and I did not get in on it.
Logged out for the day
Woke up to check the price
It was down $2-3K!
Look at the news, the big news that day was compromised CoinBase accounts.

I was never the same after that! It was like a cascade of bad chess moves.

Buying into a parabolic move is always dangerous. You can't have 10-20% green days without expecting some red days like that too. That's the cost of FOMO. Sometimes it works out, other times it's devastating.

It's always better to buy the dip during a strong uptrend instead. There's much less risk involved and the psychology of holding is easier.

To give you positivity and regain back to confidence, "No..it's not a foolish move".

Why? What if the other way around happens? Do you think some people can still say that it's a bad move? Who knows what will happen in the future? Believed me, only a few people anticipate that such dip will happen in a while because of the strong momentum that the price has shown when breaching $ 11,000, $ 12,000, $13,000 mark. .Yes, it's cautious to make an entry while the price is increasing, it's just that the momentum of the price increase didn't push too much.

What to do?

a) HODL since looking at 24H price movement, around $10,000 price level shows impressive support. What does this mean? If it were maintained, for let's say, a few days, it means we can fairly say "for now" that this price level is the bottom of this dip and a good time to make an entry. Of course, you should look at other factors to support HODL activity.

b) Minimize the loss and move on. I really don't recommend this.

We have lots of reasons to believe "technically" and not just a pure hype that price will soon be breached the entry point you did which $13,600.

Never buy when its making new highs.......why? Because its very likely it will come back down and retest that high, so even if Bitcoin went up to $16k or $20k, it would have likely come back down to $13.6. Buy when Bitcoins down, such as these prices today, because these may be the las t time we see Bitcoin at these prices in this bull market.

when today's daily candle closes (2.5 hours away) it may give us some insight into whether this correction will go deeper.

if the market can manage to hold above ~$10.6k, it'll be a dragonfly doji (bullish reversal candle) with the shadow wicking below the 20dma. plunging below support and instantly recovering back above is a sign of a bottom. looks really nice at the moment, but that can change:

https://i.imgur.com/pcTcNk6.png

Well heres my take and the market doesnt have to agree but its how I gauge the move and its strength.   We are positive medium term but could top out at these prices and keep a more sideways stance for the moment

https://i.imgur.com/cHgiaIq.png

White trend is our growth over the last few months.   Yellow line is the 8 day average and blue line is 2 day, just measure of momentum.    Its quite possible even while the market remains fairly positive, we do need more time to get past the recent highs and collect more buyer into another move higher.  
    Its just my view and I wait to see if the tide stops here or my feet get wet :)

Sellers dumping in a gamble to gain more bitcoin in a bigger dump are going to get their asses handed to them I think. Instead of some free bitcoin, they will end up with a bitcoin  loss as they are forced to chase the bull.
Stupid, greedy cocksucks. The halving is in front of us not behind us, coins are going to be way more expensive next year and everyone with a brain knows it.

Hey Pipdips looks like you are paying for your education. That's great: feeling the market is the best way to learn, watching videos is only 10% of the job.

Anyway here's something for your consideration:

If you are buying to HODL for a long term, like at least 5 years, then buy the BTC, store in your wallet not on exchange, and don't even look at it for the next 5 years, even if it goes down to $1000. Sell only if it goes too high to reach your goal. You do need a goal. You must have a goal. If you do not have a goal, you must set a goal. If you think 3 times is enough stressing on the importance of setting a goal so you know at what price to sell, then good. If not, re-read until it is enough time for you to understand that if you do not have a goal you will not know when to sell. Say your goal is to buy a $200k car because you deserve it. Divide $200k by the number of BTCs you have, that is your target price. When it gets there: sell regardless of where BTC is heading next. Do not use your lunch money, your mortgage money or your kids college fund money. Use money you can absolutely forego. You can also flatten your risk by buying into the market at regular intervals. The 5 years count start from the date of last purchase. You do not need training for this strategy, you are counting on Time to heal the mistakes.

If you are buying to sell and make a profit: this is called day trading and it is a full time job and you are learning the ropes the wrong way and you will hit the wall and go bankrupt very easy without the proper training. On the positive side, a proper training in day trading will help you trade the stock market and will help you with professional poker and roulette playing: these are all interlinked techniques that rely on probability and large numbers. Do not start day trading until you have read minimum 3 books and watched 100 hours of high quality videos on the subject. You will learn that you will have a bankroll account which you may not touch for any reason and you will learn that you can cash in the profits past the bankroll account. You will also learn that crypto is another way to delay paying taxes: you can sell cryptos for a loss when you have a good year at work, and vice versa. Daytrading is not only technical know-how it is also psychological training, it is a very enriching experience in all senses.

That's just fucking great advice. People who took it in the past ended up meeting their goals when bitcoin was sub $1000, or even sub $100. How do you think they feel now?
Fuck price goals, let bitcoin going mainstream be the goal.

I am not entirely sure if the scary part is OP buying from 13.600 or it is bitcoin going down as a whole. I mean there are two options here, if you buy from 13600 and sad about the fact that you could have bought a lot cheaper than you are totally right and I wish you did that because buying cheaper would have been the smarter move but we never know when it will go down or will go up so we buy whenever we feel like the best time.

However, if OP is afraid that he bought from 13600 and the price went down which could potentially mean he is not going to profit then he can be at ease because bitcoin just had a correction and the price could go back to 13600 to help him profit in the future, that is still possible right now. So, yes you should have bought for cheaper but you will profit nevertheless in the future.

I think this big correction was not just what it looked like. It was just a lot of people selling and panic sellers always tend to get out whenever they can, usually they put stop loss on the prices a little bit below what they bought and when someone sold they all got triggered as well and sold too.

Now that we are lower than the peak we had they are not buying back because they are afraid the same thing will happen again. There was just way too many people buying at over 13 thousand dollars and none of them are willing to get back in the market. If we can manage to get them back on the market and show them that this is the bottom we can get and we are not dropping any lower than we can break all the way to the top and have a new all time high price as well.

It looks like dmwardjr is still bearish. (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5140701.msg51691287#msg51691287) I respect his analysis a lot. It's also worth noting that being bearish is a heavily contrarian position right now. (https://twitter.com/coinjunky/status/1146232720688865280)

After that 20K short claim on Bitfinex, shorts are looking mighty low, much lower than longs. Positions are also weighted towards longs on Bitmex. So from sentiment and trader commitment perspectives, it seems like bulls are too confident right now. Maybe we need to shake the trees again.

Since the $13,800s top it's been nothing but lower highs and lower lows. The market is threatening to fail again at the .618 retracement of the June 28-July 2 leg down.

I was roughly right above, however when setting up a trade it seems best to just take the stop loss level and use that for the start to give yourself extra leeway without paying for it so much.  
   So pricing went to 11,500 and yet we are roughly where we began the day, it can easily be closing down from here or breaking out but nobody is sure when.   The OP with his relative high price just needs to realise the market is bouncing off the walls and could quite easily reach that point again for some brief time even before falling.    I'm thinking it should move down at least a bit more but market is trying to break past walls containing it before then falling back and conforming.    

That means nobody is right really,  however the price closing each 4hr bar or daily or weekly and then moving properly is harder to call

Hey thanks for everyone's valuable input in the topic. The price looks good today but I still think it is going down.

Also I learned there are times to buy, times to sell, and times to rest. I am resting.


I like this dmwardjr's comments are charts. I will keep an eye out for that users posts!

you could be right. it's times like these where i can't imagine the price crashing, that it does. at the moment, it seems like sellers are completely nonexistent. price is just melting upwards with no resistance. but that's how it seemed last friday at $12k+ too, right before it crashed below $10k. i almost bought more at the top of that bull trap!

It is now at $11,942 and I would think that is a top from these past 2 days of bullishness, and it will drop tonight. My buy orders are placed in the $9,300-9,800 range, just waiting. I will keep moving them down as time goes on because I think the price will drop to that area, or less.

I think it is the same people rolling the bitcoin prices over and over again and this is what exactly happening right now, maybe there are new players as well but not as many as you may think. If a person buys bitcoin from 4k and the other person sells it at 4k than the buyer will sell at 5k and seller will buy at 5k, then the seller buys from 6k ... this goes on until the price reaches higher.

One big player in all of this is the people who stopped selling their coins and waiting for the price to go as max as possible and not willing to sell at these prices because they know if they wait they can get more money out of it as well. So, the buyers buy from each other to make it bigger and bigger while sellers are holding which in return makes sure there is no need to have a new big buy in from someone but the market players that already exists can do it.

As much as I'd like to disagree, exstasie's right, being a bear actually means you're part of a very small minority, that's been getting smaller since the hype began rising again in April.

I said it the whole of last year and this year, I wasn't ready for any rally to start until the "crypto winter" had well and truly purged all the bulls. Unfortunately, the sentiment went positive with plenty of bulls still around, so they got louder and then the middling joined their ranks.

Not that I'm complaining of course. Just that I'd have much preferred this to be a year of accumulation at super low prices =p

I don't think the price now is overhyped or overbought at all. Everyone with a brain knows it's going to be way higher than this next year, so I'm not expecting a crash sub $10k going forward. Those who have dumped and are licking their chops at sub $5k coins are going to end up panic buying at a btc loss instead is my prediction.

My experience is that when things seem obvious, the unexpected often occurs. That's why I won't be surprised at further lows, even down to the $8,000s. Bulls seem very comfortable, and they certainly seem to be the majority. In situations like these, sometimes the market likes to give a good shakeout that forces weak hands out of the market.

I certainly agree about sub-$5K though. Anything below $8K is becoming increasingly unlikely now.

The majority of speculators, which you seem to be one of, think it's going to crash down hard. I agree with the rest of what you say about what happens when most think one way and what happens is the opposite.

I disagree. Looking anecdotally at some polls, it seems like the opposite:
https://twitter.com/coinjunky/status/1146232720688865280
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.0

Trader data shows bullish sentiment as well. Bitmex funding rate is 0.0145% (https://www.bitmex.com/app/contract/XBTUSD) which isn't astronomical yet but definitely indicates bulls outnumber bears.

Also, this is longs (green) vs. shorts (red) on Bitfinex. Long positions are sloping back up and already outnumber shorts by more than 2x:
https://i.imgur.com/pQCEWpe.png

Don't get me wrong, I'm not expecting a crash per se. Most (or all) of the potential downside has already occurred. But it's pretty typical for corrections like this to extend up to 40% and very occasionally even past that. That puts the maximum downside around $8K.

The bottom could be in already but I don't think the correction is over yet. Time-wise, I think this will chop around for at least another week or two first.

Whatever you say. Using a poll from a thread in bitcointalk to prove your point is pretty pathetic, you really think this is a representation of the worldwide bitcoin market? The majority of speculators took that gravestone doji seriously. Were you stupid enough to?

Winslow, anybody's guess is good enough to consider because nobody really has any real clue here! Bitcoin is currently at $11,131. This feels similar to the parabolic that topped out on Dec 2017 and then it went down slowly with tons of fake outs until it bottomed out at $3,500.

Also I notice that the weekly candle for June 24, 2019 has a huge bearish doji pointing down and the doji's shadows equal $3,500 in length. So my assumption is this was a mini parabolic compared to the last, and the price will keep going down. It is moving down like all the positive daily news does not matter.

If we haven't dropped to $9,300 to $9,800 range by July 23rd, you may want to consider getting in.  Cause I'm anticipating another push up to begin last week of July or first week of August that will last toward the last week in August before we fall into a month of bear market in September.

October, November and December should be boomalishous.

I agree. My goal is to just get in under $10K and anything lower is all gravy. I am all rested up and planning to take a few more additional days off.

Don't get me wrong I am still bullish and I am sure price will go high sooner than later, but a parabolic rise is more often than not followed by a slow decline. It would be a total freak show event to see the triple-parabolic (one after another), like some were predicting.

$11k+ is awesome considering we started the year at $3ks. Comparing now to end of 2017 is stupid, end of  2017 was the top of a 100x price run and a year after a halving, we  are a year from the next halving and just getting the bull run started. But do what you want, I don't gaf - short it all.

Short it all and jump off a bridge when it hits 25k.

I am of the opinion we are no where near the top.

From the mining viewpoint.  2017 a diff of 1.4 a price of 20k

That is a 15 to 1 factor.

We are at

A diff of  8. And a price of 11k. That is a 1.37 to 1 factor.

If you believe the network is 2x the efficiency.  The factor bumps to 2.75 to 1

Which is not in the least close to 2017.

So from the mining viewpoint this is about 1/6 as good as 2017.

Price wise. It is 11/20 as good as 2017

The truth is we are some where in between 2017 dec and 2018 dec in terms of mining profits.

My guess is price will approach 15k this year and 26k next April.

I didn't just use a poll from a thread on Bitcointalk. I used long/short data from two of the biggest trading platforms in the world. I also used a Twitter poll with a few hundred participants. I'm also just taking a general overview of Crypto Twitter, Tradingview chat, and Bitcointalk.

Why do you assume the majority of speculators are bearish? What is that based on?

It is now at $10,960 and the chart displays a series of lower-highs and lower-lows.

And now it's $11,352.16 as per coinmarketcap. So you have witnessed now how volatile this market is. I do hope that you will stay and will go long this time. At least you will not have a hard time, headache waking up and seeing the price going down again.

It will stress you more if you will continue to watch the price regularly.

What's your plan by the way? Short term trading or hold? No need to follow the price every day if you are going for long. I doubt also that you are on short-term trades since you got hit by a FOMO which is not the usual behaviour of those who want to go short.

Since you got attracted to purchase bitcoin at $13,000, no need to be worried that the price goes down after especially on how the price is behaving today. You can trust not by words but technically and generally that sooner or later, it will reach your buying price then eventually make a profit out of it. Patience is the key.

The strategy that I primarily use is scalping crypto-currency, and it was working well in the 5 minute candles, and I have a method that works and it makes money.  Recently I had switched over to longer trades, things got quite messy, I had no strategy other than wanting the fastest route to the money bags.

looks like we've just seen the first higher high since this correction began. price just went above the july 4 high ~$12060. are you still bearish, or does this change your outlook?

i thought we would put in another lower high and keep sloshing around the lower end of the range. i guess not!

I was hoping the same thing. The price did not go that route, so today I started scalping again.

If I see it go below 10K again, I will buy and hold and wait.

I prefer to measure the creation cost and enter into bitcoin when it is at wholesale prices. When I first got into bitcoin in a large way it was March 2017. The price was almost equal to the creation cost. Look into the creation cost and identify risk to build confidence before throwing down at a price.

https://www.amsinger.org/how-it-works (https://www.amsinger.org/how-it-works)

Aaron

It is at $11,770. Big price drop today down from the mid $13K range. It did not reach a new yearly high. It looks like the parabolic is losing steam in the shorter term of days and maybe even weeks. It is the same down pattern after the last parabolic reached $20K. Down it went. Slowly. Despite all the great news and hype, that is how the chart looks to me.

I am HODL!

Right this moment it has a bit of a bounce, easiest to see is the 8 day average price as underlining very recent low.    Daily there is a uptrend and this is the upper band in this area; so this plays as a factor also.  

https://i.imgur.com/8ZLzFhK.png

Its challenged both tops and bottom prices a few times but its not lost the inter month up trend. Very short term I guess some bounce but it should be testing lows a bit more imo ie. circa 10k at least but i often miss the forest for the trees on the spirit of the move, till broken thats up

Lower high should we close out day here is bearish enough to take note.

Be a bit more optimistic if we close bars above 11,900 on 1hr 4hr

Currently it is at $11,330 and it keeps going lower, slowly, every day for the most part. Today it went all the way down to $10,983!

Today's 1-week candle time chart shows another bullish red candle in the shape of a graveyard doji, or close to it. Thus, I think Bitcoin is on it's way down and it will continue slowly going down despite all the great news coming in every day. This parabolic is toast and there will be no more action until the halving next year. There is less manipulation occurring in this new parabolic since the previous all time highs parabolic of $20K.  This is it folks.

It surely it come into an end and we have nothing to in this volatile market but just to keep in track and stay calm all the time.
Have this another break isn't the thing that we should have to look for but to think of its sustainable market that could last longer. I just think that this drop is a preparation for the most awaited bull run.

i'm surprised at the lack of major bounce since the top a couple days ago.

after the $13.8k top, we saw several strong bounces (bull traps) on the way down, often to the .618 fib area. this time, the strongest bounce we've seen is .382. it's bled down pretty fast and hard.

if today's low was a local bottom, then $12300s could be the next local top area.

I think its within reason for it to take its time to find a bottom price that people can find more confidence in.   BTC sometimes and immediately bounces, not alot of markets can do this so often.   Right now its bumped its head a little too often, time to sit down a while is within nature.

Its not lost an uptrend, it has entered between the two bands rather then bouncing off the rev limiter high in the atmosphere

Heres 8 day average first as support or underlying the price, now as a ceiling to it.   11,800 or less to remain a more moderated price.   Lower highs, lower lows on this short term view

https://i.imgur.com/fjBylgO.png

Nice selloff but these high volume undercuts of the previous bottoms look like failed fishing expeditions. They represent lots of trapped sellers if we can hold above the $11,700 area:

https://i.imgur.com/i2ANQEJ.png

Selling momentum is very weak at this point, evidenced by the bullish divergence and curving of the trend. I think we will test those pivots ~ $12,200 and $12,335. Then time to reassess.

We know know the market is so volatile so its not surprising that the price of bitcoin is ups and down. And we know that the price is depend to what peoples demand in the market.Just hold if you want dont be so emotional..

I'm surprised by the price action. Considering all the volume on those dump candles from a couple days ago, I thought getting back above them would have triggered a nice short squeeze towards the mid $12,000s. Looks like we failed to launch instead.

Feeling less bullish than yesterday. Let's see how this goes over the weekend.

We got a fairly big move, big enough a person might well ask what in all the 7 hells is going on here then!

https://i.imgur.com/qFdDG7N.png


We have breached the upper band of the up trend, now resting on the bottom trend.   We should see some shorts closing here, possibly some buy.    We are below momentum for the week
   We are still above the 50 day moving average at 10k and it seems likely next week is to open more positively then it appears just now.    We'll see how main markets react tomorrow evening

More bearish than I expected. I had figured on some whipsawing and didn't think we would immediately breach the June high, but I didn't expect a straight line back down to the $9Ks either. Dropped nearly $2,500 from the last local high and barely a bounce worth noting the entire time. Reminiscent of bear market behavior, to be honest.

In all likelihood, we're heading lower. $10,300 or a retest of the $9,650 bottom are likely targets. I wonder if we'll finally get a decent bounce first or not though.

Looks normal to me so far since the price was staying stable for a couple of days or so and there is nothing in the news that's changing the price yet. All we have to do right now is to wait if we are just planning for long-term investment but to people who plan to do scalping, it might be a little hard to it with the condition of the market right now.

$9,458 probably time to cut my losses.

Perfectly honest? I am out! I took limited profits from all my buys and converted to Stablecoin. I believe Bitcoin is going down to the $6,000 level and perhaps lower into the $5,000 region is also realistic. Since I bought down around $3,500-5,000 areas I did make profits but I have lost enough money from Bitcoin. Have fun reading all these lofty news stories about how it is just a simple correction and look at the charts for yourselves.

In red: that is what the effing hell is going on.

ladies and gentlemen, this is what capitulation looks like. we may not have seen the bottom yet, but the bulls are definitely surrendering and giving up their dreams of getting rich quick. soon enough, they'll all be spectators holding no coins, and all the sub-$10k coins for sale will be bought.

i predict we'll see new highs by october and that we won't go below $8k.

A $70k should be doable in 2 years ;-)

We shall see.  In the next few days we are looking at 8K, 7K, and I think it is going to continue down to 5 or 6. It is doing the same thing as the previous parabolic high. It is going down, then people like you post saying not to sell, then it goes down, then you say don't sell, then it goes down more, then you say don't sell.

All the great news about Bitcoin in the world does not matter. The price is being manipulated again just like it was for the previous parabolic high.

5 or 6 if you are lucky.

Best thing to decide is the long term view on Bitcoin and then buy during these times of doubt when BTC price is on sale vs the previous highs.   When else do we turn away from a product now priced lower, unless news justifies such a large movement so that your long term stance is different; worry not.

Presently the price moves around the 50 day average price, if its closing the daily bar below average then I imagine it has more time till it proves positive in momentum once again.   That point is about near to 10k very roughly

i'm always amazed at how low bulls set their sights around here. even if we just follow the diminishing gains from 2013 to 2017 (35x above ATH vs 16x) then we should be aiming at $140k or above.

and 2 years, you think? in january of this year, that sounded reasonable. my expectations were super low. but i look at the monthly chart now and i'm pretty sure the next cycle has already begun. sooner than all of us expected......

I'm waiting for this $10,400-$10,800 range to break to determine short term direction.

Upward range expansion would give us $11,400s as the target. That's based on Fibonacci retracement and extensions, horizontal S/R on the daily and 4-hour charts, and Tim West's TAM method. If it breaks down, a return to the $9,700-$10K area would make sense. Here's the chart:

https://i.imgur.com/wyvr2Pb.png

I just cant believe that, not without a world entirely different from now.   Sorry I'm a cynic and I'd never tell someone they are absolutely wrong in such an estimate but I dont see it that easily.

exstasie I concur, its trying to break out right now.    Very hard to decide but I opt short with with stop loss not far above from here.   Of course the market wants to hunt these stop losses and it just burst upwards and then quickly came right back

https://i.imgur.com/w0WHgnr.png

Close on the 4hr bar below $10,400

fair enough, everyone's got an opinion. but with that attitude, i assume you couldn't believe $20k was coming in 2017, or $1200 in 2013. i believe bitcoin will continue to amaze us.


looks like we're headed down for a test of $10k. but i wonder if we get a troll spike straight back upwards like yesterday. that move yesterday felt pretty decisive. i'm hesitant to short right now.

Yeah go short it's always been the best move since 2013  ;)

Many people experience as you experience, don't panic if the price of Bitcoin falls still a long time for the price of bitcoin to skyrocket.
In trading up and down prices are normal, wait for the price of $ 20,000 then sell. Like in 2017. What is important is that you believe that one day the price of Bitcoin will rise.
don't forget to continue to keep up with the development of bitcoin prices every day.

The range broke down, however selling momentum is extremely weak. It looks like two failed fishing expeditions. Bears can't even seem to break below the broken downtrend line to reach $10K.

There's still a few hours left for this downtrend to run out of time, but it looks like it won't get far. I think this will turn back upward and push towards the $11,400s after all.

https://i.imgur.com/4sJTgsw.png

shorting the bounces down from the $13000s worked out damn well for anyone who had the balls. once i see another decisive lower high like $13.2k and start seeing weak slow bleeding behavior again, i'll jump back into the fray. for now i'm thinking this can still push higher. holding spot coins and waiting.

It is at $9,959 right now. Pretty soon people will stop fighting the fact that Bitcoin price is going down after the parabolic pattern. We are consistently seeing lower-highs and and lower-lows across the charts. I want to starting buying again when it is in the $7,000-$6,000 range.

Buying in 2013 would have worked too for anyone who had the balls.
Hindsight is 20/20.

I keep my stash cold 😎

Next stop?  The $8,000 area. Don't listen to the news, just watch the charts, wait and see. Having balls and having brains are two separate things. You can stare at the charts all day long praying for the price to go up but markets simply do not work that way.

The ones who bought in 2013 should have taken them out of cold storage, cashed out at the top of the parabolics, and waited for new lows to buy again on the way up.

It looks like $6,000-$7,000 is where it will wind up.  Maybe it will go lower and into the $5,000 range.

Sounds like that fleecing you took on your longs is still weighing on you. We are still in a downtrend and $8K is possible, but if bear momentum weakens and we don't get there, hopefully you'll be able to recognize it. Bias is a dangerous thing indeed!


It all depends on what time frame they are investing on. If you held through the whole 2018 bear market, this little 35% correction is nothing. There's no reason to sell yet on the monthly chart.

It's also pretty hard to "cash out at the top." Due to market psychology, most people are more likely to buy the top.

Or wait with the hope it climbs higher... It remembers me back in Dec 2017, a friend who doesn't know any shit about BTC told me "bro, you should sell now, you're crazy" I told him I'm waiting some days or weeks more because the price will be higher. At this time I was truly believing the price could hit ~$22,000 and I had an initial plan to invest in something else.

When the price started to crash a few days later, I was still watching the market. It was too late to cash out some bitcoins, and the plan I had wasn't anymore possible due to this. :D

I've a plan where I would like to switch from cryptos to real estate. Nothing big, I would like to start buying a small apartment and rent it to someone. After 10-12 years I will hit 100% ROI, It could finance a second apartment. After 20-25 years, I'll be fine with 2 apartments for rent, I will probably be retired too. Not rich for sure, but not poor :)


As for someone mentioning $8,000 I would say more the days pass less the chance to see it is possible

Yeah, that would be the perfect opportunity to buy at the price, the support at $10k is not that good, so it's possible that the price could go on that direction. Either way, nothing has changed for those who are in the game for so long. Buy in dips, and then just hold, simply as that.

The property idea is a job also as being a landlord can be alot of hassle and various repairs required.   You are also a speculator on demand in that area, university accomodation has been a popular market in recent decades.  Thats a market subsided by government, in future you'd have to guess as well also.    Definite risk in that investment


I think its reasonable to think BTC will keep drifting down till it hits bedrock of some kind.   Call it gravity or something, but theres not a proper trend to appreciation at the moment which means you have at the least a slow leak of sellers.

https://i.imgur.com/WmQMsCi.png

Right this moment I think it has these two prices as boundary 9612 9830 which is just fib levels off its previous recovery

If you are not ready to take the long way better stop expecting to gain from cryptocurrency trading.this market is very volatile that no one can skip from wing victim of dumping
In this place we need to be ready in the consequences what is important is our capacity to wait and hold

There are lots of investors that is not ready like you and all they got is losses because they are panicking everytime the market goes this way,keep yourself ready and never ask for faster profit

Someone tried pretty hard to paint a double bottom off the $9,100 level. I'm not convinced yet.

On Bitstamp's daily bar chart, the dump off $10,235 a couple days ago signaled a bearish range expansion. If the market can clear that $10,235 level, it'll signal a clear reversal. That will also line up with the 20-day MA in the next day or two:

https://i.imgur.com/RqbI4B7.png

Until we clear those resistances, there's no reason to get bullish yet. It's just a double bottom attempt until proven otherwise.

'right now' ≠  sell and go away forever.   6 years is not my time frame, I basically looking whats on the menu for the next week.   Its gruel soup for the longs sorry but I hope you get bread.

always the people love the absolutes but thats not trading is it now.   I still think negative but Im happy if market wants to prove me wrong, so far it is not doing so.  Its slipping into the ocean bit by bit and I dont advise standing underneath that clifftop with an umbrella.

https://i.imgur.com/MG3PI0L.png
The weekend was a stop hunt, weekends I avoid but main week we have to see if it can continue down from fridays close up.    Its no where near 8 day and its failing to pass the 2 day average, I'll watch this area carefully with a tight stop I think is fair as its already attempted up a few times.

The bullish bet going on the double bottom idea would be to rest on it not making a lower low, so the stop loss would be 9100 or a bit lower.    Could be the more sensible bet if the framework werent already negative.

Someone is trying very hard to prop this level up. If you've been watching the 1-min chart, you can see anytime someone dumps, they immediately follow up with market buys to prevent people from selling:

https://i.imgur.com/0CDkCX2.png

This has been going on for days. I wouldn't necessarily take it as a bullish sign. This accumulator very well may just be delaying the inevitable and setting the market up for an even more brutal waterfall. People who prop markets usually get punished.

More lows today.  It is now at $9,462 but the other day she went down to $9,127.  Have fun holding on for dear life with your crusty old bags.  Everybody else is going to be buying on the cheap!

Well it failed to pass 9000 in any good attempt, its risen from that lack of challenge to the lows.   Now I have to at least consider the oppisite that Bitcoin can then retest the highs.   I dont personally favour this, I think this is a weak rally but on a daily chart it may have beaten a negative trend speculating since the 13k high.

The low I posted above was not revisited in any way since, so I was wrong to be so bearish.  I think volume is weak, this does not match a breakout scenario.   OBV shown at the bottom shows nothing exceptionally bullish

https://i.imgur.com/nWmSPQW.png

That reminds me of early 2017

At first Bitcoin was able to crash below 900 dollars (yes, such were prices back in the day) on rumors of the Chinese Central bank banning Bitcoin (it was likely the first time that rumor emerged). Then the price quickly recovered and went above 1k again. After that, there were a few occasions when Bitcoin closed just short of 900 dollars all over again but never actually went below that mark. Now we see that the history repeats itself, though on an entirely new level of prices. So let's hope that 9k will turn out as impenetrable as 900 dollars had been two and a half years ago as we all know what happened soon thereafter

I guess this marked the bottom. I should have recognized that we were all getting too bearish. :D

Based on TAM and other methods, I'm still expecting the overall correction to last another 5-8 weeks. However, there's a good chance $8,000s are off the table now. Bitcoin likes to thrust down hard in the early part of a correction, then finish off sideways with no lower lows. It's likely we'll see $10K or slightly below again though.

Late September/October is when I think the Bitcoin market will get interesting again. We're still stuck in the summer lulls, with the ghost month right around the corner.

Are most of you ppl who keep talking about btc price traders?  Or holders?  Because unless you plan to sell soon or trade, shouldn't none of this matters if you don't plan to sell btc?

some are traders, some are long term investors. but we're all speculators, so even if we're not imminently selling, we're financially interested in where the market is headed. even hardcore hodlers get addicted to the charts.

personally, most of my coins are in cold storage but i swing trade 10-20% of my total stash at a time.

Not me because I have decided to turn a new leaf in my career with Bitcoin.  I am going to quit with these charts.  Look at all the weird charts you people posted.  Bitcoin is a lot more simple than all these lines, feelings, and gizmos.

Ah, have you reached the "TA is voodoo" stage in your trading career? That's the point where most people get off the train for good and become hodlers, which is a respectable enough position. No more trading for you?

Nothing wrong with charts, they are only graphics to match numbers.   If I were a genius I could juggle all these numbers in my head and realise a number sequence repeating regularly without drawing anything.
I'm not that clever so I have to be doing it the long hand way.    The candles do look a bit weird but it is pure data, nothing imagined there.    Its worth revising as basically candles are the shortcut to showing data.    That allows me to put it on 4hr bar but still gives me a summary on what occured in that 4 hours, where a simple line chart is showing less.  


When people stick some chalk lines on the ground declaring a bullish territory and start saying well 9500 must be support, thats when the story telling starts :p   Its all maybe hence many just say well skip that and they go with the certainties they believe in.  
  I just dont think there is any certainties anywhere, just most probable and paths of least resistance.

https://i.imgur.com/oknYCqd.png

See this magic line, we go below that and we must be weaker  ;D   I was just listening to nic trades and she says a trend is tested when broken or its not a breakout so maybe 10500 as target if we can close below this line.  50 DMA is around there also.  Profit taking is always natural.



Dont have to sell it all, trade means you can buy and sell the same portion ten times over.   I think people are doing both often.

It matters because we wanted to see how the price will grow in the future. That's why people complains when we have like a dip and then majority gets excited when we have this sort of mini-bull run. At the end of the day, investors are going to check their portfolio and see how it does in terms of fiat value.

That is the thing with them, most of them keeps claiming bitcoin has future, I wonder the future they are talking about, are they talking of tomorrow future which I think that is what many of them mean. They want bitcoin to grow wing like tomorrow and just multiply their investment. Most of these traders are in for the short term investment and does not really care about that future, few of us are just the ones that really want to wait for some years of bitcoin to see the benefit it will Bring to us.

Many of the people you see in the market now will sell their coin any moment that bitcoin gets to $20k, and one of them is op, he is just an FOMOed bitcoiner because he saw the trend bitcoin was moving on then, forgetting that it is impossible for bitcoin to continue on a trend for too long without a reversal of price.

LOL.  Nice strategy.

Fiat should not be what will matter to you the most, but it should be the amount of bitcoin that you have in your account because that fiat you are talking of may become useless one day and crash beyond recognition. The bubble of money will soon burst and everyone will run to bitcoin then, so it is better you save yourself now by gathering as much as bitcoin that you can gather.

The easiest way to accumulate bitcoin is to always buy at dip, so what should be more of concern to you the opportunity to buy at dip and not the fiat you will get when bitcoin reaches peak. In future, bitcoin will eventually get to the peak that we will get tired of it, because the cost of accumulating it will be quite too high then. I am always happy anytime I see such flash crash because it gives me another chance to buy more.

I think the reason why it matters so much to holders as well (I mean its obvious why it matters to traders of course) because holders want to see profits in a more psychological way.

I mean yeah sure I don't need double the amount I got in less in a week but when I see my money going 10% up, than 20% down, than 50% up than... well you know how bitcoin moves, that makes people unease of investing into crypto.

I am actually thinking about selling all cryptos I have in order to get out of this market and stay in more legacy investment methods like savings accounts with interest rates or buying known stocks and so forth for couple years to save up for something and than maybe I will go back to this hectic crypto world, I know I may luck out and earn a million dollars out of blue here but I could also just stay at the same price for a year with huge movements in between as well.

Following on the super simplistic strategy FTW we have indeed lost this level.   Next is this lower rung to the chaos ladder :P and this time we have a ceiling of the 8 day average which is just where i measure positive or negative momentum personally.

https://i.imgur.com/3N0XjxJ.png

I think this is a fight for sunday/monday but I dont mind the bet of a short with stop around 8DMA, not usually so neat but worth a try.

When you just post photos of a few candles cut out of a chart along with a grey line or two, I have no clue what to make of it. What is the set up you have used? Are those lines moving averages?  What are the time frames?

Since they day I posted this topic post-parabolic high, it looks like Bitcoin prices are going in the same direction I figured all along. Down! On the long term, I am seeing lower-highs, and lower-lows.   It is playing out a pattern almost identical to the previous post-parabolic.

I should state the bar size yea, this one is 1hr.    The MA is 50 so that makes it just above 2 days of average price.   Actually not that far above is the monthly average roughly, I always use 50 and 200 I CBA juggling variables

https://i.imgur.com/l6HoIVF.png


The horizontal lines I barely remember in an exact way myself but its fib levels from a strong move, hence it can prove some relevance later.    Its all maybes, its just a picture to place on the price and decide if we are strong or weak, sometimes the market goes up only to capture more before it continues down.  

I would suggest it should hold this 2 day average, if we are to hope for positive movement.   My first thought is for 10400 to act like a ceiling but lets see how the daily bar forms for today.


https://i.imgur.com/ZmjpOQC.png
Here it is, the first fall from grace and does it echo now or not.  [1 day bar]