Bitcoin Forum

Decided to post this here as the gambling section is over-run by ponzi scams.

Essentially a redditor is willing to bet 300BTC against 1 share of BRK-A (~$183k) that the one share will be worth more than 300BTC.

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/20gkdx/legitimate_wager_300_bitcoins_vs_1_class_a_share/


I've commented here (http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/20gkdx/legitimate_wager_300_bitcoins_vs_1_class_a_share/cg33tj0) and sent him an email showing my interest in his offer with a few modifications. Seems like fairly good odds?


I'm also willing to double-down and offer this deal to Warren Buffet himself with profits going to charity if he somehow sees this, I doubt he even uses the internet though. It isn't much money to him, but who doesn't love winning?

Go stunna!

wow - it needs bitcoin to rise to around ~ 755$ even if berkshire rises by almost 20% within this year?

the guy betting on the berkshire asset really needs to have balls or he has serious insider information regarding bitcoin. a market cap of around 10-11 billion dollar for btc on the 15.03.2015? with all the positive mid term news for bitcoin? if I would be a whale that would be a snapcall

Why 1 share? Let's up it to something that will really matter to him?

Come on this is akin to taking candy from a baby.

But the time horizon needs to be reasonably long because Bitcoin is highly volatile and so they price could stay flat or down for a while before it blasts off again.

Also note that the NYSE is likely to double in price between now and Sept 2015 (because of capital fleeing the BRICs and Europe into the only safe haven remaining), then it will crash in 2016 or so.

So you would want to set the time horizon probably in 2016.

But then you have the problem of what if an altcoin challenges Bitcoin by then or if government clamps down on regulation of Bitcoin.

Won't happen, way too soon. For an alt-coin to challenge bitcoin, bitcoiners would need a reason to divest from BTC into this altcoin. Bitcoin is adaptive, organic, like a virus. No need to switch over.

They already are, worldwide. It's only a speedbump, trust me. There is no stopping this train now that it has been set into motion. The beast is unleashed, and all we can do now is watch it eat the world.

Technology giveth, technology taketh away.

This bet is free money, and a huge amount. I'd take it in a heartbeat.

With a long enough time horizon, I'd take this bet even if it was 5 shares bet against 1 BTC.

With a long enough time horizon, I'd take this bet even if it was the value of the entire US dollar economy bet against 100 BTC.

300 BTC = set for many lifetimes. Generations of your children will be set.

I agree. Any altcoin will be #2. However, note smaller things grow faster, so #2 could be a much better investment (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=515414.msg5710458#msg5710458).

And regulation should actually make Bitcoin more mainstream (in the dying industrial economy).


I don't agree with that part. You have confirmation bias and this is very dangerous to objectivity.

Perhaps. Or maybe I have supreme confidence in the probability engine that is my mathematically-gifted brain, because for the past twenty years it has been making me quite wealthy.

<< Went all-in to BTC with my life-savings just before the $100 mark. Never day-traded, just held on patiently and saw huge return on investment year over year. I'm what you call "smart money".

Did you extrapolate that it can't ever be a unit-of-account unless the government changes its stance on classifying it for tax purposes as a commodity?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=515414.msg5710868#msg5710868

Let's see..
I think you are out of your mind if you believe any such government-bankster hijacking of Bitcoin will be even remotely successful or tolerated by the cryptocurrency community.

World governments will have no more success taxing Bitcoin than the US government has had stopping the spread of piracy or winning the insane war on drugs.

And proper decentralized exchanges are coming sooner than you think.

I like this bet.  If Warren Buffet saw this (or his army of of assistants) it would be a good way to spread the word about bitcoin.

Yeah, if anyone has any way to reach his assistants please let me know.

I hope you are able to bet, this will be fun to watch.

So this dude has 300 BTC to bet and he doesn't even believe that it they will continue to increase in value?

That's depressing

Right.  Reddit OP agrees with Buffet that Bitcoin is a mirage, yet he makes a wager to earn Bitcoins.

So in his mind he risks Berkshire Hathaway class b shares but stands to gain valueless bitcoin.  Either its a scam or poor wagering as risk/reward is way out of whack.

My suggestion would be to get out a pen and paper, and write a few letters the old-fashioned way.

You have a poor reading skill dont you?

This bet does not work for bitcoin but instead against. Hopelessly confusing. Anonymous person who might at some point reveal who they are. escrows. No clear definition what the winner gets ( left as a quess ). Two bets with possibly opposing terms ( not actually specified at all for the smaller one). At least for the bigger bet there is confusion because collaterals are made the opposite direction related to the actual bet. 10 times too much questionable stuff to make anybodys head spin. Anybody that thinks bitcoin is shady business is going to get just more confirmation to his beliefs from this 'bet'.

Definitely not something Buffet would like to have anything to do with and he might find it offensive his name is dragged into something without his approval. This is not a way to get into the good books on anybody on wallstreet.

Well, in order for him to get upset for having his name dragged into this then his name should be spelled correctly ;)
It is Buffett <---- notice the two T, Buffet is what you have when you go to receptions or parties, it's the table that has all the good stuff you chew on :)

1k BTC bet so far against Berkshire being the better investment in a year's time on BitBet (http://bitbet.us/bet/786/bitcoin-to-surpass-berkshire-as-an-investment/), with discussion here (http://trilema.com/2014/an-era-ends-today-a-new-era-starts-today/).

Except it's opposite.

I think you guys are missing a very plausible alternative and that's that the OP (on Reddit) has a few thousand BTC, say 3,000.

So you have 2 cases to consider:

1. 300 BTC is gonna be worth less than 1x BRK.A/B share - OP (on Reddit) will lose 300 BTC (10% of his total) and that's it (BTC value shouldn't drop from losing to BRK as it's the king of the hill).

or

2. 300 BTC will surpass 1x BRK.A/B share in value and since OP (on Reddit) will also have a PR event alongside that, it's quite plausible that this will get the BTC value to skyrocket as it has just beaten BRK as an investment option.

Just doesn't make sense to me that he accepts BTC if he wages against it unless he has a lot to gain from him "losing" (BTC winning) the bet.

We're negotiating to most likely do 300 BTC vs 300 BTC.



Very cool but this would only interest me if there was 1000BTC bet on the other side.

He doesnt accept BTC if he wins, Can you just fcking read the damn post?

I'm tired of idiots that dont even have reading comprehension.

He put his 300 BTC  on the table and asking the counter party putting 1 share of BRK.A

If he wins, he wins the share,

Nice!!

LOL!  Sorry.  I'm not taking the bait, troll.

I wonder if the market, or well-connected whales, could decide the outcome of this bet with a swift move in the price just before the deadline.

Certainly an interesting stunt in favour of promoting both parties hehe.

This is a good bet I would support your decision on it might be a popular wager
AS for the spread odds

Hmm I had 2000 at end of year

March of 2015 hmm 2250

His calculation is at $610 so I would take the bet

Somehow i think he will weasel out of the bet...... This would be a great example of colored coins,.... anyone?

Well that does make sense who will escrow the Berkshire A Share
Escrowing the Bitcoins seems like the easier of the two

If we're betting 300 v 300 coins I think it is a pointless wager for him since he thinks they are going to drop in price anyways. I'll let you all know if this ends up getting finalized, he's visiting a lawyer later this week. 

Thanks for clarifying and if a lawyer is involved that reduces the chances of them defaulting on the bet
When it comes due the wager result will be interesting and become part of the annals of Bitcoin history a year from now regardless of outcome.