Bitcoin Forum

When bitcoin's price is $13,000 it would take $23.4 million per day of new LONGTERM investment to maintain that price simply to pay out the 1800bitcoin/day that miners produce. If $13,000 was maintained throughout the year it would take $8.5 billion of new unflinching holders to sustain that price. The price just took a dump to $11,760 for this reason.

Personally I think $13,000 laughably high. I think this because I use numbers and financial data to understand bitcoin. I do not wish. I do not hope. I know what a good price to buy bitcoin is because I understand the risk based on the creation cost.

If you want to understand bitcoin in a financial sense, and not in a magical & mystical sense, you can learn more at this site:

https://www.amsinger.org

Without things like creation cost and cash flow analysis I would be lost in bitcoin. I would be slave to the whims of the whales, pumping whenever they want and dumping whenever they want. Instead I use my mind and these numbers to know when it is logical and low risk to buy and conversely to sell.

Aaron

P.S. Come on trolls, I am ready for you. Only a troll sees someone using facts and data and sprays cuss words and insults. Intelligent people ask questions or make logical statements, they do not yell at numbers.

You're so full of shit. If all you are going by is the cost of mining then $12k isn't any different than $13k. I can't believe you charge money for your dipshit analysis.

Thank you so much for cussing! It makes so much sense that you hate numbers!

You are clearly pushing an agenda, and I support you!

Kisses!!!

You are the one looking to hustle your stupid ass trading business here and I'm the one with the agenda?

yes, why would any normal person begin cussing at a simple thread about the financial needs to sustain a price in a supply and demand market?

Someone with an agenda.

People who don't care, don't tend to cuss out people they don't care about.

Sometimes people swear as a matter of self-expression.  WinslowIII is probably cussing for emphasis.

Not appropriate on this board. Read the rules.

I cuss because you annoy. Why don't you peddle your business elsewhere?

Thank you paid troll. Learn self discipline.

I'm not a post whore, do you see some stupid shit in my signature?

"If you want true bitcoin data and research checkout my site:
https://www.amsinger.org"

Who's the post whore, bitch?

"Data" sure, but "facts?" The conclusions you've drawn are pretty dubious and it was explained by multiple people why in your other thread. Why did you create a new thread with the same title?

If your numbers are so good, why don't you trade based off them and profit? Why go after $20 subscriptions?

This knucklefuck thinks that $13k is unsustainable because there's not enough money coming into exchanges to buy all of the newly mined bitcoins. He simply takes all new coins mined per day and multiplies the price and assumes all new coins are immediately thrown on exchanges the second they are mined. However, $11k or $12k or $10k or whatever is somehow sustainable given his idiotic logic.
And he expects people to pay him for his "knowledge".

This might make sense in the long run, where you have to obviously account for inflation (in BTC's case, the 1800 BTC/day figure that you've mentioned). But in the short run, the markets are more irrational than you think. Short run markets don't necessarily always account for inflation, especially when the percentage of new coins minted is so low compared to the existing monetary base.

So no, I don't think that this is the reason for the current dip. Short term dips usually has nothing to do with fundamentals anyways, but more about emotions. This time, it's due to the fact that BTC was unable to breach the $13k resistance, imo.

Also, why do you think that $20+ million per day over the long run is something that is unsustainable at all? Especially when BTC is within its growth phase, it would be a surprise if long term averages do not reflect investments with this type of magnitude.

What about this? https://whale-alert.io/transaction/ethereum/fd83697b1dd34a08de1ea8b86a1330bba6512ea0eed92ed3b742de1f3177977e
I haven't seen someone talking about it, could it the reason for the slap we got today? I wish it is because Bitcoin will surely come back to $13,000 this week... just another Panic Day...

Thank you for cussing! Thank you for showing who you are!

Right, we just barely touches $13k and then boom, in a snap the price suddenly go back to $12k. It was a flash crush, so someone from behind is easily manipulating it. Oh well, I'm sure everyone knows that whales can do that, so we need to wait and see next time if we can at least sustained it for a day, lol.

 I've read the rules a couple of times.  It's fine.

You have shown you are a scammer. You have some moronic ideas of where the price is going and you are looking for idiots to pay you for your "knowledge." This is why I find you annoying. The truth is you have no idea what gives bitcoin value.

You have show that you are vulgar, and lack any sort of insight lol

Thanks troll!

As it continues to drain due to natural market conditions, I would like to stress the importance of understanding bitcoin before you throw money into it. I didn't have data when I started. I got lucky. But now I publish this data for everyone, and now I am not surprised.

https://www.amsinger.org (https://www.amsinger.org)

If you would have a clue about bitcoin you would not try to sell your scam but would enjoy your billionaire life that you would have through trading. It's the same shit with these online marketing gurus. They teach you how to make money but themselves make money with selling you their scam courses.

I don't sell courses. I just tell people the financial information that is important to know if you are trading, holding, or thinking of investing in.

Thanks man!

https://www.amsinger.org (https://www.amsinger.org)

Maybe yes but we still don’t know, the price of BTC is down again and also with ETH which is more down compare to bitcoin, this is indeed a panic day for all the hodlers. Well, we are still hoping for the price of Bitcoin and Altcoins to recover, let’s help the market to comeback from a good price stop panicking and don’t sell for a loss.

This post was accurate, due to the logic of the financial thinking. I hope no one bought at $13,800 when they could have waited a month and now bought at 10k.

I monitor what the whales do based on creation cost and cash flow like this. It is the only way to properly understand bitcoin fundamentally.

https://www.amsinger.org

It is always better to get more clever and aware. It sucks to lose money.

Aaron

  Well I can tell you that the price rise was so sudden and had been so revitalizing that people did invested when it was around $13,000. However such things do happen due to fear of missing out the gains that many already in the market could earn. But this is a weak approach and it is always the best approach to invest in the coins when the market value is down.

It's sustainable due to wasn't able to stabilized at that certain value, that suddenly collapse after panic sellers dumped their holdings. Nobody options to wait for another price increase, that's why price declination continued to occur sophisticatedly.

You have no way of knowing what is actually down unless you know the creation cost. Anything above that point is speculation.

https://www.amsinger.org

So you choose to ignore the 1800 bitcoin created per day? That is a fact and a reality.

There is natural downward pressure due to the miners creating new coins.

Aaron

https://www.amsinger.org

First of all, your signature is enough to promote your site, no need to include that site every time you make a post.

$13,000 is sustainable, if you are seeing now price of Bitcoin below $10,000 it might be because of market correction after the bull run a few weeks ago and this is not new, we have seen market corrections over and over again. Price will recover again and go back to $13,000 or higher eventually.

You mean you are basing it in history.
That is all I see from all the numbers that you are using.

What if there is no basis at all?
How could you still get this numbers?
I dont think there is one who is really accurate enough to tell where it will go. 20k is not expected and so is the fall to 3k. Is that still laughable if there are people who loss a lot of money from that event?

The bitcoin price went up quickly from 4000$ to 13000$. This movement was not natural one and after this parabolic movement, the bitcoin was expected to dump heavily.

Not a good start if you ask me

Still, you don't know exactly how much of the miners daily reward gets dumped on exchanges, so your whole idea goes straight out the window until you have strong evidence proving your premises. So much for the "facts and data". And as others have already said, your approach doesn't explain the change in price as it could be used to account for any significant price drop due to excessive supply, and technically, you would even be correct as it all eventually comes down to the balance of supply and demand

Not to mention that even before anything starts you're already calling out the trolls. And assuming that only trolls use insults. Smart people do too.

But anyway yeah, I can agree 13k was unsustainable but any amount is when you're talking about such a short period of time. Averages are easier to understand against timeframes and those are the sustainable lines we should be looking at.

People do really love to make some analysis if the price didn't able to break that $14k resistance and sustaining on 13k price,without even thinking that
there would always be a profit sell-off in which would result into correction.I don't know why people do still got shook when they do saw price dumps and suddenly
telling their own views and analysis blah blah and everything.

All cussing aside, I don't buy OP's argument as to why $13k was not sustainable--it can and will be as long as the price doesn't get there too quickly and speculators don't cash out at the top, which is probably what happened.

Bitcoin is below $10k right now, but the bull market is still on and bitcoin is just taking a breather.  I suspect that the price will get back to $13k and above within a relatively short period of time, and none of the mining stuff matters.  OP's argument just does not ring true to me.  Bitcoin's price is heavily influenced by demand, and when the traders start buying again you'll see what happens.

I think it wasn't "dump", dump kind of sounds like someone wanted to bring the price down or someone wanted bitcoin price to be low to buy again cheaper. This wasn't exactly dump depending on your definition of dump.

This was more like people were happy with what they have earned and they just wanted to sell their coins. It is only natural for people who have been waiting for months even years to make a profit to finally sell when they get the chance to make a profit.

So of course, that dropped the price down a bit but not even that much, we moved from 4k to 13k and now dropped only to 10k which is definitely fine for me, as long as it doesn't go under 8k I think this is just people who are finally getting rid of the bags they had and nothing else, that is why I honestly feel like we are definitely capable of sustaining 13k, just need time to get rid of all sellers.

Unfortunately, people only seem to care about the price after they have bought their coins, which usually is around the top of each run. They only think about their $13,000 entry point and the current price of $9800. That Bitcoin went up from below $4000 to nearly $14,000 is irrelevant. They probably expected the price to hit $1000 on the way down and like $20,000 on the way up.

I'm fine with the price even testing the $6000-$6500 range because that's another higher low if it holds. If you before the blast from $4000 to $5000 asked people if they expected the price to break $6000 this year, most of the answers would be no because of how bad the sentiment was then. In the end, people pretending to be hodlers shouldn't complain and load up on more coins if that scenario plays out.

I'm more bullish on genuine or long term demand or speculative demand which can and does reverse.   I'm not sure we can have a proper trend based off rising speculative activity, at some point the leveraged buyer will turn 180 again trading price not usage and negatively shorting for the same reason to realise a price difference.
    13k isnt unsustainable if there is growth in the population of users, the miners selling coins to service costs is quite a constant compared to other variables and seasons that BTC might have

Using logic and cash flow analysis is weak. It is always interesting to hear what these people say. Anyone who invested at 13k is down 3k now. I'm sure they feel "revitalized".

https://www.amsinger.org

Aaron

How dare people want to make money! Be happy with losses! Absolute hogwash. Everyone is trying to make money not buy up garbage.

https://www.amsinger.org

Some would call that impatience, but this is how our subliminal works its tricks on us. Most of us base our decisions on our beliefs but the latter in turn are formed by our natural biases and misconceptions (read, these beliefs can be massively misguiding). People don't actually forget that the price rose from 3k to 13k, they remember it perfectly well. It just happens that the recent price drop (as well as the price drop of the period your refer to) makes people believe in this drop more strongly feeling it more real, and somehow disbelieve the previous rise as irrelevant like it was a fake one. In other words, they are more affected by the last events simply because they just happened as well as discard the past events as insignificant (which may turn out a grave mistake)

That makes people excessively worried and nervous

Very true, that is why I rely entirely on numbers and analysis not on emotions. It is always important to maintain perspective in investments.

https://www.amsinger.org

Aaron

13k was an unsustainable level because this increase was not absurbed from the whole market.
We didn't see a respective increase in altcoins' price thus it was eminent that the drop is going to happen shorty. I hope that many people saw that and didn't buy when the price was on top.

No offense, but that is absolute hogwash. Bitcoin dropped because the alts didn't increase? That is hardly an accurate statement.

https://www.amsinger.org

Aaron

The most important data you are missing here is that the number of bitcoins that is being sold in the open market that is being created by the miners, i bet you will not find any, so these sort of calculation does not give you anything substantial data when it comes to the market price of bitcoin.
The price of bitcoin does not have any relation with the production or mining cost of bitcoin, the only reason why the price of bitcoin was not sustainable above $13k would be that the price will not shoot up all the time and you need to have a correction to have a sustained growth  :P.

So miners pay electricity, facilities, and equipment in order to not sell a product. Do car manufactures make their cars and keep them from being sold on the market?

Completely illogical.

https://www.amsinger.org

Aaron

As always, the devil is in paying precious attention to detail

Do cars appreciate over time? I'd rather say no unless you have to wait like 50 years till some exclusive models obtain real value. This is definitely not what car manufacturers want. But is it the same with miners? Again, I should say no as bitcoins do tend to appreciate over time and in less than 50 years, so it does actually make sense to keep at least some of the reward and not sell it in its entirety. Long story short, your analogy is heavily flawed, up to a point where it stops being an analogy at all

It costs money to make a bitcoin. If the miners don't sell how with they recoup their costs? Also bitcoin does not always appreciate. Ask the people that bought at 19k or 13k how well bitcoin appreciates.

My system alerts people when the price is low compared to the creation cost, and when it is high compared to the creation cost. I let people know when the whales are buying, selling, or holding based on logic.

You are promoting an idea that miners have no need for money, and that they will hold their bitcoin simply to see massive price increases. You are even assuming that miners want to maintain sky high prices even when faced with low liquidity and extreme volatility.

Perhaps you should check out my site, and actually read about how bitcoin works:

https://www.amsinger.org (https://www.amsinger.org)

Aaron

Obviously, it is not about people who bought Bitcoin

As it is more about those who mine it, i.e. miners, and I'm very skeptical about the costs of production anywhere close to 19k or even 13k. Indeed, it costs money to make a bitcoin but if the production costs are around 5k on average (which is an accepted figure), then at prices over or around 10k miners can only sell 1 bitcoin out of 2 mined and still remain profitable en masse, while keeping the second bitcoin to themselves (which also adds to price growth)

Cryptocurrencies cannot be compared to the product like cars maybe you can compare it with stocks how long you are keeping the stock the profit you are going to be then prophet also is going to be high. Mining also can be more profitable when you can hold the coin until the Bull run begins.

Your reason cannot be true as all the miners are not selling immediately right after mining rewards. Most of the miners are holding their mining rewards for future. You may simply verify this by checking on miners' addy. By your logic, bitcoin was able to peak up to $20k with the same reason I am mentioning. Till now, $13k was not sustainable due to lack of enough new investors. Agree or not, only big investors and financial houses are moving bitcoin prices to next support or resistance levels and common people do buy or sell in between price levels.

I guess no stock got the supply mechanism for every 10 minutes. Commodities like gold or crudeoil also not having regular supply mechanism. This is the reason why traditional stock or forex analysts are failing when they try to predict the markets of bitcoins and other cryptos.

I tend to disagree with this view

Bitcoin indeed has a "supply mechanism" built in which adds new coins to the net balance every 10 minutes or so. But this supply is absolutely predictable and has been so ages since day one. In other words, the market can live with that and effectively price the new coins in. If the supply of new coinage was completely random and arbitrary in both amount and time, it would likely heavily affect the price dynamic but since it is not, it doesn't

The validity of this assumption can be seen with altcoins such as Litecoin which has a similar supply pattern (in fact, a potentially more disruptive one). And even if it is less stable and more volatile than Bitcoin on its own, we still don't see the disruptive effects of the constant increase in the coin base as there are simply none

Bitcoin has still not risen past the peak of $13,800 or the $13,000 I stated before. It has thrashed and tried, but it has been a month and bitcoin has not gone past that, and appears to be in full contraction.

I use financial analysis of miners to understand these situations. I explain financial analysis on my site:

https://www.amsinger.org (https://www.amsinger.org)

Aaron

OP, use the fundamental approach to understand that it's plenty sustainable. But it will take time. Bitcoin, in a higher price, doesn't only attract "money" as a store of wealth/investment. It attracts capital for infrastructure too, and have it ready for the next wave.

The infrastructure does not "catch up" in time to make it sustainable. Bitcoin just passed $11k on the way down again. 13k was not sustainable at all.

If you would like to know how I knew this as it was happening please check out my crypto masterclass:

https://www.amsinger.org/information-request (https://www.amsinger.org/information-request)

Aaron

I think the realistic approach is that bitcoin is something that is volatile and people who are upset that they haven't made any money do not realize that they would eventually profit but that might take some time, there are still people who have bought from 20k times and maybe there are even some who haven't sold and waiting, if you wait enough I am pretty sure you would profit no matter where you buy from, however the problem arises when they want to make money quickly, this is not some "get rich quick" scheme because it is actually a currency itself and that is why it should be used to earn and spend instead of buy and sell hence if you are going to just trade it and not look at what its bringing to table the least you can do is to wait a bit in order to profit from it while us others are working on making it bigger.

Why would anyone want to buy overpriced bitcoin at 20k and wait patiently when you could buy well priced bitcoin at $3300. 6 times as much bitcoin. 6 times. That is what I do on my site. I let people know when bitcoin is high by using financial analysis something no one else has done.

https://www.amsinger.org/

I would prefer to know the appropriate time to buy bitcoin and sell to people who want to pay 20k or 13.8k

Aaron

Read what I replied to you. It will take time. But it will be sustainable, ultimately, and continues on to the next wave.

More miners => more secure => more confidence => more users => higher price => more miners => ...

It's there in front of you.

Nice try to attract newbies that are not aware of what is going on with the market.
13k is not high considering the fact that the number of transactions that happen daily has increased significantly.
I wonder, what data do you rely your analysis on?

The $13K price really has nothing to do with it, I think its more of the fast run-up and blow off top that happened. I think when people keep seeing Bitcoin gain 10% day after day and after day and then they get a 20% day they assume that eventually its going to drop before heading higher and people close their positions and get to re-buy later.

If Bitcoin travelled very slowly to $13K and more conservatiately then it might of broke above the $14K by now. But these fast and sharp moves are never good because it means short covering and FOMO settling in and its never good for the long term.

It can’t raise slowly or that would be too expensive for the manipulators. Because they have to fight 1800 btc a day it is significantly cheaper to raise the price in 2 days vs 20. For the past month they have been order book hunting.

https://www.amsinger.org/
If you want to learn more check out my site!

Aaron

Subscribe to his "masterclass", if you want to know more. Hahaha.

But it's always nothing but technical analysis mumbo jumbo, disregarding the importance of long term fundamentals.

I am off the opinion that $13000 is high enough and the value really corresponding with the number of transactions that we have in the market, that is why I don’t support those who thinks that the market is being manipulated with all these glaring transactions that you and I are seeing and you even believing that it ought to have gone higher than this in value compared to the number of transaction in the market, but I think that $13800 really corresponds with the number of real transaction that we see.

Know that not all the transaction’s that you see in the market can really be counted because we have so many of them that are manipulated transaction, and some are nit as a result of new investors but transactions within the older investors, so only count the transaction from new demand of bitcoin which I think really tallies with that of btc..

The way I see it 40% up in less than a week for any market is manipulation. That’s when I posted this when it was ~13k. Bitcoin is rampant with manipulation. That is why I made my metrics to see through the manipulation to the reality of the business action behind it.

Aaron

I think new money is still coming into bitcoin, it is the old money going out of bitcoin that is the problem. People think that we need a lot of money to increase the price because we need money to keep buying bitcoin but if we could have managed to make people not sell the coins they have instead of trying to convince people to buy bitcoin they don't have, then we could have sustain it easily.

All we had to do was stop the whales from manipulating and selling and stop miners to sell all their coins to make up for the costs and we would easily have 13k and even 20k+ because that wouldn't require a lot of money to make it high since there are fewer sellers in the market.

However, since we couldn't convince sellers to sell the buyers are never gonna be enough because there is a limited amount of money that can get into bitcoin where is there is no limit to saying "I am not selling".

The only way to profit with the whales and miners is to know what they are doing:

https://www.amsinger.org/

OP, answer this. Then why is the network total hashing power in an all-time high, if $13,000 is "not sustainable"? Miners are "speculators" too. When hashing power increases, they know something.

It is not that it has been unsustainable, it is that the big Bitcoin Investors are beginning to touch these price levels to be able to test these areas in some way, and it was determined that there is a lot of supply there, and little by little the offer should decrease.

Many experts said that this fall of Bitcoin is due to a Chinese Ponzi scheme, which accumulated around 70,000 Bitcoins + 800,000 ETH, since they started since 2018 with an interesting investment and profit base, but some claim that the wallets of this scheme do not It has moved many Bitcoins, because initially it was said that they were selling Bitcoins in small packages to mislead ..

The market may move largely because of this, but in the same way there are many interests that are mostly bullish, this means that it is very likely that the market will fall but will recover as soon as possible.

If you could get rich on your TA you wouldn’t be sharing it  ;)

It is really important to understand how bitcoin really works! This thread speaks of the fundamentals of bitcoin and crypto!

I'm not OP, but I think I can answer this

The network hashing power might have been on the rise (I really don't know if it is so but let's proceed from your assumption) because it's been profitable to mine since we had prices like 5k (and below). And as you have noticed yourself, miners are speculators (without any reservations), and they were likely just fixing profits at anything above 10k as many a speculator would do

That gives them the required safety net in case Bitcoin crashes to 5k and below again (this is still a possibility). In plain terms, miners are following a simple rule, like (rephrasing Napoleon) time we can recover, price never. So they strike while the iron is hot, which is perfectly understandable if you ask me

This thread is important to allow people to understand how and WHY bitcoin behaves the ways it does. There is a constant downward pressure that must be accounted for in new investment.

Aaron

I have just posted a new thread about the creation cost vs the historical price.

Check it out here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5177729.0 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5177729.0)

Hope everyone is having a relaxed day!

Still true. Still accurate lol

The thread won't stop anything or make bitcoin to rise or fall. Market price and manipulation by whales will continue to happen and this is responsible to price reaction but a better understanding of technical analysis helps .

This is still true, this was posted late June. This how to properly think of bitcoin and crypto.