Bitcoin Forum

So we have finally gotten it: STABILITY!

I think it's great, the price hovers around 3, and the market seems to have decided on a base value for bitcoins.

This is not good news for currency speculaters, but great news for bitcoins as a currency used for trade.

Althought many dream that this would remain like that, I can guarantee you that this is very temporary. We are set for huge volatility the next weeks, months and probably years to come.

Do you realize that if more people use it to trade it's price increase? The fact that it is NOT rising means no new ppl start to use it

+1

sad, but true

Not true IMO. Price is currently totally dominated by speculation, and new markets grow exponentially from tiny seeds. There is no way you can extract such information out of the price chart, let alone at the end of a huge bust.

If you want to figure out such things, look at more businesses like bitcointorrentz or Casascius or Spendbitcoins. Their statements are 2:1 positive:negative, so we don't really have a conclusive image.

I think you confuse my longing for stability with a longing for things being static.

I want the price to fluctuate, just less wildly.

If bitcoins price were driven by commerce the would be around 10-20 cents right now.

That would mean a market cap of just under a million dollar which is still optimistic. Rationally it would even be something like 10 - 100K.

Can you please post your calculus, including velocity of exchange.

Those are just rough figures I made up by looking at the stuff offered on the wiki and the forum. In order to get discrete figures I'd have to make a survey or something.

Would you be willing to participate in that?

Yeah you are right about that

I was being facetious. It is impossible to calculate an economy's 'market cap' by its user base, unless you know how quickly money is moving by all participants. Often, the faster a money depreciates, the more/faster its use.

It's surprising how stable the price has become.  Lack of interest?

Volume is about $150K a day, which is tiny.  Some of that is 'bots trading the same funds back and forth.  It's not clear how much money is flowing in and out of the Bitcoin system.  But the stability is clearly not an effect of large transaction volume.

If the price has stabilized at $3.00, it seems clear enough to me that the amount of money flowing in is around $20k/day net.  1000 people putting in $20/day would be all it would take (and soon it will only be $10/day.)  I find it amazing that given the size of the human population, the difficulties with the various monetary systems, and the ease with which BTC and migrate, the price is not much much higher.  But there it is.  I'm resolved to avoid staring a gift horse in the mouth.

This thread is hilarious  :D

No doubt. "We've been around the $3 mark for almost a month... Eureka! We have Stability!" Remember when we were totally stable at $30 for like 10 minutes?

Stability around any price (30c, $3, or $30, take your pick) is the best possible outcome for bitcoin.  Imagine being a merchant in August or September:

"I'm getting $10 for my sale"

10 minutes later

"Oh, it's now only $9"

Another 10 minutes

"It's now $12, great!"

Later that day ...

"Damn, it's now $8"

No merchant in their right mind would tolerate the instability we have seen in recent months.  Merchants are not Wall Street speculators, riding a speculative high to make money.

If bitcoin remains at $3 for months or even years it would be a great result.

you disregard the assimilation of the daily influx of ~ 7200 btc necessary for equilibrium

I agree with you.

So many people dreamed about $100, $1000 or even higher. It's entirely possible since the number of Bitcoins is very limited. Not to say that for the vast majority of people on this forum, an increase in BTC value is beneficial.

Offer Bitcoiners a choice: do you want price to stay at $3 forever, or potentially increase to $1000 with huge volatility? I guess 99% will choose the latter.

Stability is never a solution. It takes gold and silver thousands of years to be stable (or you can say, to have a price). Technology can make Bitcoin grow faster, but not just today.

I would regard gold's price as a good stability benchmark for Bitcoin - average about 1% per day and maximum about 4% per day with a long-term trend of going upwards.

I think they're ignoring you and having fun slightly derailing this thread into "What if it stays at exactly 3 for ages?!?".

Cluster2k has it right, mid-term volatility of the kind we had from February to October isn't optimal to start businesses. But an increase in business activity greatly increases Bitcoin's chances and thus raises price. So, in effect, real growth temporarily slows down itself by causing volatility. Just one more effect that shows you can't build Rome in one day.

Things appear to calm down. That's a pretty good sign, especially since it appears to be happening at a price much larger than the pre-bubble values. The final correction is still missing though; usually, after a bust has settled, Price does another distinct drift as the trend-following crowd dissolved. It is an interesting question where we will end up in that, as it indicates how many people still trust in Bitcoin after all the chaos.

1 bitcoin week ~= 1 dollar year

Bitcoin's June bubble matches pretty well with NASDAQ '99-'04 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=26117.msg387278#msg387278) at roughly 1:75 scaling.

Since June, bitcoins have depreciated about 10% each week (http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=1094&m=mtgoxUSD&i=Weekly&c=1&s=2011-6-8&e=2011-11-8&l=1&p=1&t=S&noheader=1&width=900), while dollar prices (including food and energy) inflate (http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts) about that much annually.

We are repeating the pattern from last month nearly 1:1, I'd expect some more stability about 1-2 weeks till the sellers get impatient and dump. Volume is just too low to support any significant rise, and even what we are having now is artificially inflated.

I think bitcoin more resembles the silver bubble from 1980, there were similar motives at work here bitcoin just plays it out a little faster. The Nasdaq just doesn't fit, bitcoin would have recovered months ago if it were that.
The silver "big dip" took over a decade, if you translate that to bitcoin we would have at least one full year of the same. I don't expect any new highs till well after the reduction of the block reward.

You could say the reduction of the block reward and the hype about the Mayan calender might do for bitcoin what the World Trade Center TV-Show and the Gold heist did for precious metals.

There is the bitcoin days destroyed measure but this does also count book keeping transactions ie someone sending bitcoins to another wallet.
I image those to be quite large, especially if you consider that there are a large amount of scammed bitcoins which have to keep in constant movement in order to be not discovered.

And there are trading bots doing arbitrage, the exchanges themselves and the motivation of the top 10 bitcoin holders to remain elusive.

So much for stability :P.

Baseless Speculation: I think the price has entered the next drop, this time due to panic selling. What happens next depends on whether the $2.4 and $2 supports hold - if they do, we could even have an attempt at "stability" at the $2.4-$3 range.

There is no support at $2,40. It's another ghostwall. Sprang up from 600 coins to 50000 coins right after the second major dump happened.


EDIT: Aaaaand while I'm typing it has already disappeared.

EDIT2: Now it's at $2,50. This is hilarious.

2.5 is a ghostwall, yes, but there should be technical support at $2.4 since the price bounced off there. People will be inclined to place buys at that level because they wish to recieve cheap bitcoins.

One sale that just took like $100k USD off the market... how many times do you think people will keep scrambling to lose money?

I'm generally a realist and bear on bitcoin's price, but I tend to agree with this point.  I believe we will see a slow rise back to the $3 over the next week. 

Why would anyone wanna buy now  ???

We are still 30% above the last low, and the market will not simply "forget" that we did hit 2.3 for a brief moment... especially not the trading bots who drive a large portion of the volume.

I bought hard whilst I slept, slowing selling again, and taking my lady out for dinner!

I think that there will be strong support at $2 which is why I think it's not a bad idea to support it with some bids. If there is another strong selling wave that breaks $2, we will probably go way lower to a new bottom at $1.x.

It's all about the $2.04 low holding. If we go to $1.9x, there will probably be panic selling leading to a price around $1.5. However if $2 holds I think it's likely that we'll see the price climb significantly during the week.

if we reach 2$ and stay there for 3 weeks, will you still call it stability?

No.  And if I had any bitcoins left I'd sell them at $2 before it dropped to $1.50, then $1.  There's a pattern here.

Pardon the necro...  :)

Wow that dampened spring pattern is uncannily similar to the recent price action, except on like a 10x slower timescale.

I love these necros. Great for perspective.

[*2015 bump*]


"The more things change the more they stay the same."

Do take the time to read the 2011 replies.

Many of them -- perhaps even any of them -- could have been written yesterday.

Even though the current price is 230 instead of 2.3

Cheers! :)

The calm before the storm .I am just grateful that I can continue to get them while they are affordable

Haha great find, loved reading the exact same discussion about stability and going up or down as in het Wall Observer-thread =D

Were the sockpuppets not there yet then, or were their posts deleted? ;+)

I love it when someone necros and old thread I commented on so I can see where my head was at back in the day...

IF that value is correct, then 1 dollar a year, wouldnt everyone just dump it then.

It makes no sense to hold 1 bitcoin a weeek that equals to a $1 a year.. even a person on food stamps is making more.

I've only been watching BTC for about a one year and  During that time we have had longer periods of stability but I highly doubt that BTC has "stabilized" at ~230.00
More volatility is almost certainly on the horizon.

Nothing changes..lol

it is just a matter of perspective, if you compare it to the price before 2013, 230 is a one hell of a price, you can't say nothing bad about it, it's a great achievement

and the stabilization will help those that are poor in bitcoin to accumulate more for the time being

yes, think of the (bitcoin) poor  :)

Even at its most stable, bitcoin won't be much more stable than oil or gold. That is to say not stable at all.

Any "stability" that you see is a lie.

well bitcoin is like stable last months ,but is till when this will stand i guess it can go high easy as can go down .... but there is too many interest soo i doubt really it will go too deep i guess maybe 180 dollars minimum maximum i cant say around 300 dollars currently

300$ maximum on what timeline (by year's end or indefinetly?)

The way i see it is that bitcoin is just missing the initiative to reclaim new hype prices, which could easily happen few months after the halving, when the demand becomes obviously above the supply.
It seams logical to me that the price doubles after the halving, but not just because the reward will be cut in half, but also due to fact that we are now pretty stabile @ 200-240 range.
There will obviously be those who will sell and therefore make impact on the rise, but since most of people look at bitcoin as store of value - that period shouldnt be long.

cheers

that is the big problem several people,investing on bitcoin ,want a low term income if it reaches 20% in a month several people sell it ,soo the raise moment gets stucked by those interest on sell it to take the proof.
But yes we will reach a moment of demand and supply when happens those low term investors will be out of the game and the medium and long term investors will act and get the bitcoin stable again but at a new stage lets say around 350 -500 dollars more 3 years to reach it my prediction

Heyooooo 2016!  ;D


https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/5hibm8/daily_discussion_saturday_december_10_2016/db0q6ij/