Bitcoin Forum

I enjoy chatting the trading activity of Bitcoin on several venues. I don't bother with any altcoins or tokens.

Something has caught my eye looking at the 4hour chart using candlesticks with Bollinger overlay. It has tightened up considerably while trading very flat in a small non-volitile pattern. The RSI is neither indicating over or under sold conditions. The appearance of a 10k support level suggests with that, that a push up is waiting for a trigger. And I suspect this will be within the next week.

I hereby suggest I am only hypothesizing and am in now way suggesting as fact this will occur at all. But I enjoy trying to make sense of the motions. Maybe I need to suggest just some fun bantor.


Thought for the day - One need not fabricate proofs to prove ones existence. Or as Judge Judy likes to profess, you don't have to think to tell the truth.

So when should we buy and how long should I hold and at what point should I take profit from your chart analysis? Or I shouldn't think but just jump into the water?

Please note that many traders are going to explain the same chart from different perspectives.
One can say that the motion indicates a selling movement and the other the opposite. This is what makes the market volatile an it excites investors.

The tight Bollinger Band squeeze you were pointing to broke to the downside:

https://i.imgur.com/1hehdTP.png

It's not a convincing breakdown though. In fact, the $10K area was bought up hard so we're actually still inside the previous range. This could technically still be a fakeout before another try upwards.

I'm still sitting on my hands. I have zero confidence predicting what'll happen next. What do you think?

You probably want to post here instead:

Bitcoin Forum > Economy > Economics > Speculation (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=57.0)

I think you are quite right but you can also support this thesis by look at the previous high jumps on the prices as well, it was quite similar in the sense that it moved radically before it started to become flat and bollinger band tightening each time and then it moved one direction radically.

Now, this proves that it could also go down since in the past going down happened in the same sense as well and with one trigger it could drop under 8k as well but it also proves that it can do it both ways up or down so you are 100% right that it is waiting for a trigger to move radically and 50% right that its gonna be upside. However historical data has never been favorable in bitcoin world so I can't really say something that happened in the past will definitely happen in the future neither.

Analysis is not something that is fixed, it constantly do change, the analysis that worked for the market yesterday may be different from what will work for the trade to days, so trades are subject to changes when it comes to analysis, especially when you are analyzing trade on a daily basis, it is only a long term trade that you can analyze to some extent and the analysis still remains valid till the trade is over.

For your question that is difficult to answer, the best answer is that you should by when the market is dip, hold till you see a profit, which is why you should always try and set goal for your trade because that is what can help you not to be greedy, and for the final question, take profit when you have reached your goals. So in other words, learn to just depend on your own analysis and not of others.

Unfortunately people are not doing holding part that well. I can understand some traders willing to sell and even make a loss in order to go back in at a better position but there are way too many people selling their coins for no reason at all, those are the ones that hurt the price most, they panic sell and that causes bitcoin to go down uncontrollably since the price was expected to be drop a bit because of traders for example but than panic sellers start to sell and it goes down more and than more panic sellers join and it creates a wave until there is a buyer that is willing to buy at whatever it is dropped and cover all sellers amounts. Aside from that there is also the dumpers who are looking to just cash out and be done with bitcoin and those people get more crowded when price doesn't go up.

Investing without analysis would be a big mistake. No matter how cheap the BTC price is, you should still look at the chart, evaluate the purchasing power and buy or sell orders on large exchanges.
Look for signs to buy with the best price. Don't invest blindly, that's the basic mistake to avoid.

You should be able to identify it with just RSI on your chart. 4 hour chart is where he saw it then you must be able to also see it on the same time frame as RSI its 70+. I really think that it will stay in these price range for a very long time or at least early september we can see new support in 12 or 14K. Its testing the patience of those who can't wait like me.

Unfortunately, the prices of the coins are down. Sometimes we can't predict the future correctly but I think you have a mistake in the analysis.
In fact, buy orders don't affect the price of the coins too much because they can cancel orders anytime, and often large buy orders come from sharks.
They are cheating us so we can confidently buy more and we ourselves will buy the coins of the sharks and push the price very high. that's my experience and hope it will help you in future strategies.

This is a typical game of the whales, and those that are panic selling are cheaply falling into the trap of these whales, these same whales are the ones that comes to the market to probably sell some portions of their coin to create a  little dump, and instead of the present investors to understand this and remain firm, they fall into fomo and then start to panic sell, and like you said, as they panic sell, these people still buy their coin back.

How many times would people teach them how to spot whales activities, now that bitcoin is already in uptrend, no matter the correction we may see, the best would be for anyone to just remain calm, if they all remain calm, panicking will reduce, and whales would not be having their ways every time.

I think this down will not continue for as long as people think it will. The halving is coming soon and miners will start selling higher and will stop selling at the prices they are selling plus the difficulty will mean there will be less people mining bitcoin with small time miners are getting destroyed more and more.

Hence, I believe the whales realized that they started to early to rally bitcoin high and now they are accumulating more bitcoin at this stage but doing it slowly enough to not make prices go higher, with more time they will surely start to increase the price again when we get close to halving. I am sensing come this autumn price of bitcoin and all other crypto will go at least double once again, we just need to wait whales collect millions of dollars again, since they can't do it in one day it will take time.