Bitcoin Forum

https://whaleagent.club/bitcoin-bull-break-above-11k-and-falling-wedge/


https://i.gyazo.com/6e38b5ed06a5564cae06288202b1a27e.png

The bitcoin bulls have done it again with a huge bull break above the $11000 level, the $11085 daily resistance and the falling wedge on the weekly chart. This is a huge achievement for the bulls and although the volume isn’t too great, it doesn’t really matter at this point. The price is no way above the daily EMA’s which have crossed bullish.

Think I have to agree, its moved fairly strongly as if breaking a negative trend line.    Chart I drew just quickly to estimate how its progressing:

https://i.imgur.com/nWmSPQW.png

Failing to break that lower support line around 9500 area seems to have encouraged some speculative long action to take from there.   Obviously we got various other reasoning based and news and so on but thats how it normally goes.

It seems like most analysts have flipped bullish by now, with most expecting news highs beyond $13,800. I'm open to that possibility, but I want to point out a couple reasons why we should proceed with caution. Here's the daily chart:

https://i.imgur.com/h02ShHj.png

Directly overhead are two notable price levels: the .618 fib of the entire downtrend, and the downtrend line from $13,800. So we are right near a potential inflection point.

The current commitment of traders is notable too. Longs are quite high and shorts are low: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5172462.msg52072063#msg52072063

So with the 4H-daily momentum indicators in the overbought range, I would be very careful in this area. It might be time to move stops up into profit and hold off buying until either a pullback or pronounced breakout.

The Binance charts looks different than for example Bitstamp's or Coinbase's charts, which I value over Binance's USDT crap market.

It's going to be interesting to see where we close in the next 1.5 hours. We wicked slightly above the descending wick to wick resistance, but that's not much worth if we don't manage to close there. A close above the descending resistance will make me less bearish than I was yesterday. If that happens I will close my short (still at a profit) and turn it into a long.

LOL. Bears just had to keep hope alive, didn't they? :P

As David pointed out, (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5140701.msg52076432#msg52076432) breaking above that trend line with authority would have been telling. Instead, we're left guessing whether that spike to $12,300 yesterday was a major failure like the spike to $13,200 a few weeks ago.

For now, bears are still in the game. That was a clear failure to launch, followed by a fat selloff candle:

https://i.imgur.com/FF2aU8J.png

We've had a selloff since we broke over $12k last night, and though the bears did manage to pull things down to about $11.2K on Bitmex from what I can see, prices have since recovered to about $11.6k as of right now, although there does seem to be a bit of resistance overhead again. 4H RSI is now sitting near 60, with nothing besides the 12H and 6H being close to overbought at the moment. Things are a bit chaotic at the moment but I wouldn't be surprised if we go for another run over the trendline soon as indicators have cooled down after the dip.

Below chart is of the 15M, pretty surprised the bulls have kept things from sinking further.

https://i.imgur.com/1GU0m8u.png

Same here. This is a confusing area. Lots of congestion and not clear what's going to happen. If this is a bearish reversal taking place, then a .618 retrace to the $11,900 area (right near that upper trend line) would be pretty typical before more downside.

the volume isn't "too great" because we are still in the sideways action mode even though it may look like this was a bull break,... and that makes most investors anxious while day traders more active. in other words the investors are trying to wait for the signal (breaking above $12k properly or maybe $13k) before they invest and that makes it ideal for the day traders who are making profit from these 5% ups and downs that keep repeating every couple of days.

Since bitcoin started increasing this year volume has really not been a determinant for its increase because many analysts has tried all their possible best to look for the main factor that has contributed to its increase and found nothing much on it. We have seen very few volumes being bought on some exchanges but not that high too to attribute it to the increase which is why some feels that the market is being manipulated which I doubt this also.

It is not really that easy to figure out the causes of the surge we do see bitcoin have sometimes but like you said, all that matters is that we have bulls in the market that has succeeded in stepping down the bears and all we need to keep hoping that they will be available for a while for us traders to keep taking advantage of these increase to make money.

Yet another bart-like pattern after we had a little bull flag at the top where we briefly broke above the top of the flag and then proceeded to fake out and dump several hundred dollars in the process. Took profits right after the bart happened, and it seems we've now got a lower high on our hands with that last pump as well. We're also below the trendline again. Would be cautious longing this area if that's what you plan on doing, size your trades appropriately for the risk here. Very indecisive right now. Chart is on the 5M, GDAX. 

https://i.imgur.com/XFcZYZ8.png

I guess I don't really understand what makes bitcoin tick and I have been in this world for over 6 years now you know. I mean bitcoin sometimes goes down super fast and sometimes it goes up super fast as well and I look at all these so called "charts" and nobody and no chart could ever predict what will happen, not the time and not the direction, if one chart can get it right for one time then the next time they are wrong, there has been no person and no chart nor any indicator that was always right no matter what.

Price just does whatever it wants and whales just play with it like a fiddle and we are all out here watching it like it is a regular stock market world where we can take a cut for ourselves as well in reality it is just a game for all the rich people out there as always.

You've got to hand it to the bears. They're defending the down trend line and the $12K level pretty staunchly. Looks like another big failure wick through resistance and an opportunity to start another selloff:

https://i.imgur.com/TwyOmVC.png

What a roller coaster! I'm still not sure about the big picture regarding mid term trend. This is not a confirmed bearish reversal yet, although it's beginning to look that way.

I still rate that it left the daily uptrend, it didnt really care about that and just kept bouncing about but it hasnt risen since that point either.    The recent high was that daily trend now a ceiling, its not what I'd call negative or positive at this point.

On the daily we have the triple peak and each a decline of the last.   Maybe Bitcoin is like an oil tanker, it was positive and 20 miles down the road the momentum will taper out and it'll come to stop.  Then it might reverse some and even be negative properly but the 9k prices was more of a resting point so far

Even though there might be a falling wedge once the bull break I guess there is a safe floor that we can sure count on and it will surely break the fall, But again this year is not so certain to just go to the moon either because there is so much possibility that another dip might happen, and I am guessing it is not the $11,000 USD but the $12,000 USD after reaching that height the fall might happen, Because of certain resistance from that level and the $11,000 mark had already passed its resistance and now come another level.

^^ This. last night was a make or break, I thought that the bears will taking over and a reversal is imminent. Was mad at not taking the profit,  :). Anyways, we could see another bearish reversal if we don't push and break $12k again. And most likely it will be the case in the next 14 hours. Ah, change my mind, I will just continue to hold and see that magical $15k mark next month. So it will be a mental game for me from here onwards.

That's funny because given how the dumps were being bought up right below $12K, I was sure it was bulls who were taking over. When I opened the chart last night, I expected to be coasting through the $12,000s. To my surprise, it actually looks like bears may have won the battle for $12,000.

If they can just make new lows below the $11,200 area it will start looking like a very clear failure and longs will start being squeezed out. Now that sellers have made their stand, the high long/short ratio on Bitmex and Bitfinex is really looming.

Here's a look at that trend line we've been watching:

https://i.imgur.com/d3mNi3w.png

BTC as of right now is showing some weakness after hitting 12,300$. It has now lost 6% of its value after attempting to go higher than 12,300$ now its only 11,590$ the lowest of which is 11,200$ for today. With that quick recover after 11,200$ I think the market is still in favor for the bulls but if Bitcoin continues to be in favor of the sellers by just going down nearer to 11,000$ once again then we might go down around 10,000$ by the end of the week. RSI is still in the middle so there is no indication on where the market will go from this point.

It's going to be super interesting in the coming 10ish days. If we keep moving sideways, and respect the ascending trend line that has been there since April, it might offer a helping hand to confidently push above the descending line as seen in your screenshot. I strongly believe that given the trend, we will make higher local highs.

I converted my short into a 2x long and I'm ready for the next leg up. People might consider 2x boring, but no wick will stop me out. There are no certainties of course, because we technically haven't seen a high local high yet, but given the current trend it's kinda foolish to be bearish for too long.

Probably. I'm still sitting on hands until this congestion is officially done though. No reason to rush into a position in my view because once we make new highs, it should be clear sailing for a while.

But as long as we don't make new highs, the bear case is still possible, however unlikely. Plus going long right now means betting against xxxx123abcxxxx, (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg52084317#msg52084317) whose calls have been rock solid.

The market will still be in favor of bulls even if the price falls lower than this, the good thing about the current market is that we are already in uptrend and we are far away from the bear market, so whatever drop in value we are seeing should just be counted as correction and I think we will be seeing lots of these correction before the bull run come, the only people that would just be luck are those that are using this opportunity to trade, they just buy low and then sell high every time they see that opportunity.

For long term holder, I think we should just forget about monitoring the market for now, or else we will give ourselves unnecessary tension, our goal is to reach ATH and when the time comes, it will be clearly known to us.

The bear case is definitely possible and I'll get out of my long if turns out that we're heading towards lower lows. After what happened in 2018 I'm no longer taking a risk with my trades and shift whenever I see a change in the dynamics of the market. My gut feelings have been bearish for a while now, but the rational trader inside me just follows the charts, which is what I did.

As far as the calls of 123abc goes, I haven't followed his calls so I'll have to look into them, but even when taking everything else into consideration, we still follow our own route as to what we believe will happen (at least, that's how it should be).

This price increase really was incredible, but it is not easy to overcome the support it has at $12000. several times whenever the price is above $12000 it does not take long for it to fall below $12000


The problem with failing to monitor price is that on the day the person decides to see the price, he may be most disappointed. Imagine someone who bought BTC when the price was $19000 and has stopped monitoring the price and today that person decides to see the price and finds that the price is at $11700, that person will realize that he is with high losses. I believe the ideal is to monitor the price constantly and follow the news constantly

It's starting to look like a bullish triangle to me. If so, it's nearing completion, currently in the E wave. However, since this market is a troll fest at the moment, I'm still hesitant to turn bullish until we actually confirm the breakout. Bulls need to get above the D pivot at $12,050:

https://i.imgur.com/HOj0l8Z.png

And this, ladies and gentlemen, is why we wait for confirmed breakouts:

https://i.imgur.com/NAOOYKb.png

No matter how bullish the chart might look, it's support/resistance and high/low pivots that dictate price feedback. If you haven't broken pivot resistance and made higher highs yet, then the bearish scenario is always possible. Set your stop losses accordingly or just trade the breakout, like I usually do.

Quite surprising in some ways and important to the larger weekly bar picture I think, where we have 3 declining peak prices.   Could be we are bearish overall, I thought we might exceed that now so long as 12k held as a step towards higher prices.   If its the ceiling that changes the outlook, once again its going to challenge 9000 prices presuming Tokyo open in 24hr confirms everything and doesnt reverse

We're past the stage where this could be considered a bull flag. You might call it a failed bull flag, which is commonly seen during bear market conditions:

https://i.imgur.com/R8B3wr3.png

It looks like xxxx123abcxxxx may have been right again (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg52074134#msg52074134) after all. The $10,800 zone is probably a bounce area but it looks to me like we're still headed lower over the next couple weeks.

You probably meant resistance, right?

Regardless, Bitcoin entered, let's call it, no-man's land, an area where there is not enough supply as well as demand to stabilize prices at their current levels above 10k. Hence we see the levels of volatility that we haven't seen with Bitcoin since 2017. The practical importance of this phenomenon is that we are unlikely to surge way above recent highs and stay there. On the other hand, there seems to be real support (yeah) piled up at 9k, so why not ride these waves of volatility while they last?

This what makes this market is too unpredictable where prices can break out on the other way around no matter how bullish the indicator was.
Setting stoplosses is always been suggested in times like these when making or depending on technical aspects.Bullish triangle cant anytime indicate to go on the precise path.

Capped, confined and collapsed.   Couldnt beat the 8 day average which seems to be a good place to turn negative when it acts like this.   Then it failed the Fib line and fallen down a rung to the next level.

https://i.imgur.com/xGxXRZQ.png

So should the target be 10,400 for an area for it reform any attempt upwards.

Capped indeed, but I don't think they were really that many people who were seriously thinking we'd get a breakout, right? Draper, Lee et al excluded of course. And they're not realistic.

Think another rung drop is on the cards even today, actually, depending on how European traders act. Prepping buy orders?

I think the market as a whole has been leaning towards a more bearish scenario, which can be seen by looking at the short versus long ratio. People expect the price to take another dive and I can't blame them.

Important to point out is that we have seen the market go against the sentiment more than once lately, so it wouldn't really surprise me if we see a bounce up from here looking at the shorts. We'll see what happens in the coming days.

After a pretty strong decline from the $14k mark we are still hovering above the $10k mark-- if you asked people in January of this year if they could see $10k be possible this year, they would have laughed in your face.

Good call earlier. I'm always amazed at how hard Bitcoin dumps just when everyone is so bullish. Already testing $10,000 now!

With such strong rejection at the 0.618 and overhead downtrend line, (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5172671.msg52073883#msg52073883) it still seems possible to see prices below $9K. Where do you see us going in the next few weeks?

I think it has lost momentum in stages, like a plane at the top of its ascent it will glide and then it loses the flight speed to stay at that altitude and appears to drop though it was coming for a while.

So who knows long term, probably it will not happen all at once.   I'm only looking at 9300 area for it to hit that and then probably there are orders there set in the hope of the 30% gains BTC can pull out the bag.    It is quite a series of red bars currently though.

Longer term, so weekly bars I think its reasonable to speculate we can be lower and its already in a trend to do so.

https://i.imgur.com/a116aip.png


  We could get like 8500 which isnt especially harsh but its lower then previous closes.   If we can do that then it would seem to confirm we wont just be repeating previous action, bouncing in a box.  
That previous weekly bar, green but hitting the top in that way and receding is bearish.   Then its had some attempt to go higher and now firmly conforming to more bearish action, so its been whipped into line and it is a harsh or sharp action I guess.

Not holding 9000 would be upsetting to some, I've assumed a channel but it could be worse or more muddled.    It has this whole week to beguile and confuse people  :P

I guess the market was just following the principle which I think is just a made believe, I mean the principle of being bearish when everyone is bullish, and being bullish when everyone is bearish, it sometimes worked though and it played out recently for me too, immediately I saw that everyone was going bullish, I sold some of my coin also expecting that form of correction which I was happy to buy again at cheaper rate.

If the market still goes below $9k, it is fine, we will just have to still use the little that we have left to buy at that opportunity given, so that when there is a rebound of price, there would be enough profit to climb on our investment which I believe that will make the investor happy for making the decision, and I advise that many people should also buy at the price now.

It might not go below $9000 this time around because a lot of buying other has been placed around $9100 the last bottom. The 100ma which also serve as support and resistance has move over $9000 and it will be a very strong fight for Bitcoin to break lower. From the look of thinks the volume is the problem here. If it keeps getting lower any time bitcoin get close to $12,000,, the probability that it is going to retrace back is there. I believe that we need institutionalized investment that will push the volume up.