Bitcoin Forum

Technical analysis, Fundamental analysis and Sentiment analysis are some types of analysis which works well in Forex and Stock market.
But none of these works well and in sync with the crypto market. Is there even a single type of analysis which can give if not accurate then at least a near target price ?
Most of the times the market plays against us which indulges us in bearing losses.

Do you guys think Psychological analysis can help us in making better decisions and setting better targets?
Predicting the price as per the news and events in the market and how people react to it could may be give us better profits.

The technical analysis itself is a method of capturing and predicting the psychological mood of the market. One great example is Japanese Candlestick which is used to predict the bullish or bearish mood of ĺ market. But that won't help in an unregulated market like cryptos.

Stock/derivative market is strictly regulated. Which means it reacts based on certain set of rules. There is no such rules exist in the crypto market and that's why it is easier for the whales to manipulate the price. The same is not really possible in regulated stock market. So it's nearly impossible to get a psychological mapping of the crypto market at this point of time!

It will become a possibility only if the world crypto market comes under a single regulation and follows a certain set of rules. But I don't see a possibility now!

Psychological and Emotional should really be enhanced into this kind of market.We aren't saying fundamentals and technical doesn't work but most of the time we do see that these 2 things does commonly affect traders on this area.

If we can combine all these things together with traditional analysis,it might not give precise results but somewhat it do gives advantage compared to others who aren't aware of these things.

Only technical analysis of price isn't correct, every news have some affect on price, especially negative ones. But problem is that you have to be very active and read news everytime, a lot of people are lazy and that's problem. Once coinmarketcap removed some exchanges and price had fall. Once some exchanges stopped withdraw and price felt. This is just example of how every news can affect price and you have to consider it.

It is possible but there are at least two issues with this, the first is who do you think gets to know the news even before they are published? The whales of course, which means that by the time you try to take advantage of the news the move may be over already, and second how will you know in which direction a particular news will move the market and how much it will? Lets suppose that Google plans to release its own coin, is this bullish or bearish? And regardless of the direction how big the movement will be? 1k, 2k, 5k or it will be even bigger than that?

It can really help in trading. For example, in trading, you can use the index of fear and greed. If the index shows extremely low or extremely high values, you can try to open positions for buying or selling. I know traders who do this. But how successful they are, I can not judge.

Well it is true, Technical analysis always correlates with fundamental analysis and psychological analysis, we cannot ignore all three. Sure enough in Japanese candlesticks where when we pay attention to the candlestick going up and down then we are actually paying attention to the psychology of traders in the market.

Maybe the crypto market will be more difficult to analyze because the crypto market is more manipulators and does not have a single rule like the stock market or forex.

Psychology has to do with the mind, and for some scholars the mind actually holds all human ideas, and if one can dig dip and aptly scan his or her mind for ideas, then they'll make more correct decisions.
With that being said I do not think psychology analysis would actually work in trading, it doesn't have any technicality, and for me it's a strategy that is totally based on luck.

If it's incorporated to complement for other strategies that one is using, then it's cool as it could play it's own part, but solely as a strategy on its own, it wouldn't work if you ask me. 

I think psychological is not as important as people make it out to be in crypto neither, of course charts and technically analysis all are falling short of meeting the expectations too but it is not purely emotional neither, there is a bit of technical involved. It is basically combination of all of them if you ask me, there is emotional involved but there is technical involved too.

How it happens is that people check the technical analysis first then make an emotional decision according to that, so basically technical plays a role of showing people how it should move and then people move according to what they feel like that technical analysis is showing. There is also whales which is neither emotional nor technical, they are purely manipulative and do whatever they want.

I do not know which better analysis in using to analyze in the crypto market. Since you are asking which analysis I used during my trading time is "Theoretically" analysis, it's all about theory and yet, it is an unpredictable price but I think this has a sense. The very common analysis in trading is a technical analysis which really fit into it, I won't agree on Psychological analysis will have a high chance of getting profit. Because every one of us has a different emotion, I think Psychological Analysis is good only for gambling.

I only know of 2 trading strategies, which are technical analysis and fundamental analysis, I have been used to these two since the time I started trading Forex and I thought I was a master of it then, until I joined cryptocurrency traders, and I must really confess to you, it seems like these two are not working for cryptocurrency market at all and I fee those who claim it has been working and just using psychology with it.

I even feel that trade most traders here are just simply relying more on that psychological analyses than technical analysis because there is too much of volatility in this market for anyone to use both the TA and FA to predict the market accurately, and don’t forget that crypto market is also a speculative market, which makes it very difficult to make an accurate prediction through these strategies.

imagine that you spend hours analyzing the altcoin X chart and while you are analyzing the altcoin X chart, other people are following the altcoin X thread, twitter, discord and telegram. the altcoin X dev say in the thread, twitter , discord and telegram that your altcoin X will make a great partnership and the next minute the altcoin X has a big pump. this is how the crypto market works. all the person should do is follow the news on:

- news channels

- telegram, discord, twitter and Bitcointalk

You have a really good point here. This just made me think that not all people think alike and hence people may react differently to different scenarios.
Lets take your scenario, if Google releases it's own cryptocurrency then there will be some people who would think it's a good news that Google is getting engaged with crypto thus buying more coins.
But there will also be some people who would think if Google releases it's own coin then it might be a threat to bitcoin meaning it might result in bitcoin going down thus selling their coins.

So I guess Psychological analysis wouldn't help in such cases at all.

in sometimes the psychological analysis are also helping to make the decision to be properly but it will not necessary but some people trusted this kind of analysis also helpful for them so there is no problem with that if you also want to make the psychological analysis then there is no problem with that.

The psychology of ourselves is important first. If we can build a psychology that can help us control our emotions in the market then we can begin to understand the general psychology of the market. But, even most times, whatever whatever is called psychology of the market can deceive people in taking decision.


Relying on news, event and people's emotion to place a trade order can be very risky. Sometimes, some news could be positive but actually doing the negative.

The main issue with this question is that the assumptions you are making are too broad.

"Technical Analysis" for example covers such a broad spectrum of indicators, methodologies and theories that to make a general sweeping statement like "it works" or "does not work" for crypto currencies would be utterly absurd.

I can guarantee you, however, if you pick only very few technical indicators, then study, upgrade and fine tune them to complement your own understanding of and approaches to trading, you would greatly increase your chances of profitability in crypto trading as well.

It does not IMO for crypto traders do not work/react collectively even if a huge news comes out in the open, though on some occasions news can move prices in a substantial way. In my years with playing crypto, I've seen the market evolve and display a somewhat similar behavior to stock markets. Although it still retains its sheer unpredictability for the most part, having some traditional stock traders move into the crypto scene helped shape the environment that we have right now. Psychological analysis won't work in a large scale for the crypto market, but perhaps TA and fundamental analysis soon would, given that more and more stock traders are also tossing and turning crypto.

I think as most effective as the fundamental, sentimental, technical, etc analysis, so are psychological and emotional balance in other to become a successful trader. Many traders who suffer severe losses during trading actually lacks emotional and psychological balance.

If we are to carry out trading survey right now, you may find out that majority of people who trades only base their trade on psychological analysis, which makes their trade sometimes look like they are making a gamble with it. Those who trade with psychology are not different from those who gamble because if you look at their life, they only use their mind to predict numbers and not strategy because the game itself is not a strategy game.

Not that we should not apply psychology, we can work on all the three to make a better trading experience. Trade without Technical Analysis and Fundamental Analysis is just null and void. Technical can actually be difficult for some people thou, but better we just learn it if we really want to trade.

I think psychological analysis is needed to make a decision, although currently psychological analysis does not have a big effect but maybe it can be used as one of the things that must be applied in us. but the biggest contributor to decision making is good market conditions and self-confidence.

If you developed a TA that help you understand the price action? You have gold in your hand. Instead of mining bitcoin, you will be getting it through trading. Technical indicators such as candlestick do bring into clear view of the position of the market situations.

It is my opinion that any concept can be traded as long as you have a positive expectancy but you need to complement your idea with some other tools, it would not hurt to use some technical analysis to try to determine your entry and exit points, so if for example you read a news for which you are expecting a positive movement in the market then instead of getting into the market immediately you wait until your entry signal is reached, this will somehow reduce your expectancy but it will also eliminate many bad trades you could have taken.

The fundamental, technical and sentimental analysis worked well and it is human's emotions and feeling that has a problem. I have been using some combination of moving average cross with volume indicators to trade USD/BTC and it works accurately and the reasons why I lose is not about the indicators but my greed and fears. Sometimes out of greed I jumped into the market too early or go in too late but if you follow all the indicators especially the technical indicators such as candlestick, moving average, Fibonacci retracement, pivot point, macd and Relatively strength index you will find out that you will make good profits.

I think psychological analysis will help us to make better decision to reach our goals because we can think about the positive and negative that we might get if we decide one thing. But that depends on the person because I don't think that every people can decide with easily to something. Maybe they need to know many things before they can decide. So it will help us to decide to the better in the current situations, and we can solve every problem we had.

Whatever type of analysis you're doing, don't base your entire trade off of that because TA and psychological analysis is just something that gives you an edge and something to help you make a decision while trading. You should also be adding your own thoughts into trades. Nothing's going to always give you an exact target price, but TA gives you something to work with at the least so that you can plan out points to take profit, where to set stoplosses and such.

Definitely, it was. We can't just fully relying into TA's or any technical analysis, candle stick or etc...Most important we are aware of the current market flow and how we adopt into it. Many traders we're losing cause they are on the TA's all the time and never have their own market understanding.
There is something we do while trading and giving extra effort to be more knowledgeable than of simply following TA's with others.

You could combine it with technical analysis.
But I doubt it will be a 100 percent accurate. Still there will be holes and you cannot just rely with that.
I guess that is why it is still the best when you are doing it manually.
Instinct also helps to make profits and decides when to buy and sell at the right time whilst bots cannot just do that.

In trading didn't ignore to include psychological analysis with also to be include for the decision making using technical analysis how to predict potential coin can give huge profits. if the trader use this ways of ideas in their trading works he/she to control itself becuse using psychological analysis possible to have an bad effect to health.

Considering bitcoin is not something that is based on anything or backed by anyone in general it is easy to say that emotional has as much affect on bitcoin as technical one maybe even more so.

Because, after all the bitcoin price is what it is because we said so, nothing else gives bitcoin any power at all, only thing that makes bitcoin 10k+ or whatever it is would always be what people think it worths, we give its value not some country or some government. That is why I feel like (which could be totally wrong) bitcoin has more emotional and sentimental indicators than technical ones, since technical ones show what it "should" do but that doesn't have to be what it "will" do like the stock market predictions or forex predictions people usually make.

No one can make perfect analysis that comes true so all we need to do is just follow the things what we know based on our knowledge or the people we are following which itself an emotional attachment to trading.

People are only emotional when they invest with money they can't afford to risk and potentially lose entirely.

Most of the rational investors have a pretty solid understanding of risk management and actually stick to it. Even if they lose what they put in, it's just a small fraction of their entire portfolio. The immense growth potential Bitcoin offers to them easily outweighs the tiny allocation they might potentially lose. Risk reward wise Bitcoin is an easy buy.

Being a rational investor without feeling a strong bias towards a certain asset is a fantastic characteristic. Get in and out on time and don't be too greedy. Lovely.

Do you really believe that all these things works in cryptocurrency trading, because I have done so many technical analysis that does not correspond with what we have in the market, I have seen many people here come up with figures based on their technical analysis and they would come back the next day to predict something else when their first prediction has not come through.

Imagine that we don’t have anyone demand for these coins for the next few weeks, do you think technical analysis would still not tell you something even when there is a factor already that was yet unseen to control the price. I personally do see all these TA in crypto market right now as a waste of time, and something that does not really hold much in predicting prices.

I guess the whales in the market are using Psychological analysis for their trading.
They are good in reading the reaction of the typical traders when there's a certain big event in the market, (positive or negative), and with that, they can use their power to manipulate so these traders will panic because they are emotional with what they are doing.

Because they are smart, which they can manage pretty well their mind and emotional, they'll be able to exploit the weak hands in the market.
Therefore, if we like to be successful like them, we should also learn their strategy, or think the way they do so we can follow them all the time.

There is no analysis which can give accurate information about what is happening with the market. People could only analyze where the price will move, is it up or down, but we don't know the truth. But at least, with the analysis, we can make two option for the market, and we can moves related to the situations on the market too.


I am sure that with psychological analysis can help us in making better decisions and setting better targets, but that will depend on each trader. Some traders can find a way if the situation becomes worst, but the other cannot make it because they already get panic with the conditions, and they cannot think of what they need to do.

TA and fundamental analysis doesn't work as efficiently in crypto since the market is very heavily manipulated.
All the fundamental analysis that you can make comes from less than a dozen of big crypto media. Everyone else just copies information from them.
On stock exchange or forex it is impossible for a small enclave to control the whole market, in crypto it is the unpleasant reality. So just using TA and fundamental is useless. Understanding the mood of the market and playing against the marketmaker is the only possible way to go.
And you always have to be ready for a move which will be completely illogical and will go against TA.

If you take a look at all the major news . Strangely enough they came with perfect timing with price action. Sometimes within hours from certain pivot points, fibo levels, demark 9s etc.
The two undisputed masters of manipulation of the early era were ripple and nano. Nowadays everyone does it.

I'll say yes, psychological analysis is a tool to avoid us to make a wrong decision especially when we set a target. The psycological thing will read the price movement before and we can predict the future price based on the history. There is no useless thing when have a knowledge or even an experienced in trading field. Even you will know when there is some news that come who can affect to market movement or will not affect to the price movement and these all thing will be decided by psychological analyst that you have to make a decision.

I think psychological trading is very prevalent in this market. I'm sure everyone heard about FOMO - this is a classic example of psychological trading. On the other hand, if we are just going to based our strategy on this one, it could backfire on us big time. So for me, it has disadvantages as well. Crypto trading is really very different from traditional approach. We still need to have TA on our side to look for potential break outs in prices. So it's going to be a lot of factors combine that really move this market, news, whales, overall sentiments. So I don't think that Psychological Analysis alone can make the difference here, IMHO.

Since the currency market is not in very good condition today, I doubt that at least one trader is in a calm state today because of what is happening.

I agree with avikz that technical analysis already bears psychological analysis in itself.
Predicting the price via news and events, and how the people react on them can be a sort of help, but I think it'll be quite useless as no other type of analysis can predict the rise or fall of cryptos accurately and for 100%.

And you say that a lot of traders are in panic? And it is good for buyers as they sell their coins at a low price. They often to panic cause they don't have trust towards crypto.
It is sometimes to think not all traders are in good in TA's cause they only follow with news and when they heard FUD's, they absolutely beeing panic and rush themselves to sell their coins instead of being calm.

Psychological aspect does really give a big impact or shall we say a basic thing that should be part on our trading system.Giving out or doing decisions without any analysis can really be just considered as gambling plus having consideration on how you do handle out your emotions too because emotion is also a great factor that can easily affect your way of thinking into things.Collaborating on a well mannered or systematic way will surely give out advantages compared to other traders which doesnt even know on how these factors works.