Bitcoin Forum

I want to start a new discussion on here covering bitcoin investors "rules". I have 5 simple ones:

1. Never invest in ICO’s - They are complete scams.
2. Crypto is a heavily manipulated commodity and the price can change at any moment.
3. The creation cost of a coin represents the “wholesale” price - It is always better to buy when the price is close to the creation cost.
4. Crypto has a natural cash flow that dictates the sell pressure. For example, 1800 bitcoin are made each day so 1800 bitcoin must be bought at the current price ($18 million of bitcoin when the price is $10,000)
5. Patience and timing are key to making profit:

• Small buys when the price is close to the creation cost spreads out the risk.
• Small sells when the price is high off the creation cost spreads out profit.

I have made a video class that explains my rules more in-depth here:
https://www.amsinger.org/information-request (https://www.amsinger.org/information-request)

What are you guys' rules? Post them here! It is all about helping others save money!

Aaron

Never say never.  :P
https://icorating.com/ico/binance-bnb/

But right now I agree, there aren't any ICOs I would invest in. Only trash projects / scams.

Depends which coin you are referring to, some are extremely manipulated, other ones less. But even Bitcoin is highly volatile and price fluctuations of several 100$/h are happening quite often.

Can you explain what's creation cost of a coin for your assumption? I think I can guess what you mean that you are referring to the costs of mining a coin. I that case I won't say the creation cost is relevant for the price, it's other way round. If the price of a mineable coin goes up, the creation cost per coin will also go up soon because the mining difficulty is rising (more miners are joining the network where the fixed rewards per block are divided between = less coins per miner while their operating costs stay the same).


My rule number one: Don't store your coins on exchanges. In case the exchange is getting hacked, your coins are likely to be lost.

Didn't get that either, but I assume the same, he refers to the profit margin a miner makes.
But it that case I would do the opposite since when the profit margin is small miners would feel pressed to sell more coins to cover up expenses. If the costs are only 1/10 of what you make, then you sell a smaller quantity.

Or at least that's how I would probably do it, I never had a lot of mining gear and thus expense that would put me in trouble when paying my next electricity bill.

Maybe OP could give us an example on what do right now, based on his assumptions.

As for my rules:

- If you don't know what you're doing, don't trade.
- If you can't afford to lose the money you plan to invest, don't do it.
- Trading is not for everyone, just like other jobs, not everyone is cut for it so think before you act.

Now a days many projects were created with very less capital like one or two bitcoin is enough for their complete module but they set their prices way too high so the creation cost is not related to the selling price on ICO,its just related to the desire of project team.

Does this cover all start ups doing token sales in another form like IEOs or STOs?

Never catch a flying or falling knife. I learned that the hard way so that trading rule is going to stick with me for a very long time.

Almost all understand it now, but it was months maybe even 2 years that people lost so much money.

Not bitcoin, i mean price can change very quick but its so much money in Bitcoin now, that its not easy to manipulate it. Panic of people can drive price far up or far down but thats it.

I was considering this, until i stopped. It doesn't make a difference at all now (by me ofc). It was important years ago, but now $18 m is nothing for BTC world.

in short, HODL :)

Makes perfectly sense and that's how I would expect it, too. When the profit margin was very high in late 2017 and mining was extremely profitable for a few months (calculated in USD) the expenses for production costs were only a small percentage of the revenue and most miners might have hold some of the unspent BTC whereas one year later, BTC at 3,000$ and difficulty more than tripled, the majority of miners had to sell everything immediately to cover expenses.
However, I don't know in which way such mining economics affect the price, especially when the block reward is getting lower over time. I don't think it has much impact.

"Never invest in ICOs" that is absolutely terrible advice.  Guess your salty you missed the ethereum ico under $1.  Ya a lot of them fail but you can get some insane returns if you invest in the right projects.

Creation cost is how much it costs in electricity and equipment to create a coin (bitcoin for example) I measure this information on my site.

https://www.amsinger.org (https://www.amsinger.org)
*shameless plug

5 years ago, back in the days of CPU mining, yes, other servers would come online to increase the difficulty. But now you need specialized equipment to mine (ASICs) and you can't just hack your office's or schools computers to mine btc anymore. ASIC's are scarce and do not increase by 40% in a week like bitcoin's price does ;)

That is very poignant advice exchanges are notoriously bad. I prefer 3 layers of military grade encryption and multiple backups stored on flash drives and the cloud lol I don't play around with my crypto. I lost btc before, never again.

Thanks so much for posting your advice!

Aaron

If I am selling chairs and people start offering 4X what they wanted for my chairs in February, you better believe I would be selling EVERY chair I can inventory and all. The miner profit margins is the only indicator of true speculation in the crypto markets. I publish their profit margins on my site. I shouldn't give advice on the help board, but what I would ask is if you want to buy now, what is your goal? Do you think bitcoin will go to 20k in a week? And is it a bad idea to be patient right now?

https://www.amsinger.org (https://www.amsinger.org)
*shameless plug

Thanks for posting your rules!

Aaron

Unless you are a venture capitalist and are willing to see 90% percent of your investments fail it is not a good idea to invest in anything like ICO's, IEO's, or STO's anything of the sort. Good entrepreneurs and business people find their own money, they don't need you to pay for their lackluster idea ;)

Thanks for posting your rules!

Aaron

HODL to the peak and then SELL SELL SELL buy it up cheap later ;)

ICOs during 2016-2017 are very worth it to invest. Maybe today, it's a pure scam because those legitimate platforms are being covered up by multiple scams everywhere. Legit company and devs are losing hope for creating their own dashboard/platforms because of false information about ICOs. The only thing you can trust and invest with are the top Altcoins and especially the Bitcoin.

Really bad analogy.
If the prices of chairs go up by 10x times you certainly can't expect them to go x10 again...with bitcoin you can.
When producing chairs, you add another factory, you double your production if a competitor triples his production your factory won't produce fewer chairs, in bitcoin production is nowhere the same.
Chairs can't be stored in a smartphone, and certainly, there isn't a limit on how many chairs are in the world :P.

Also, there is no race for more efficient chair making machines :P

Nope, apples and carrots, not even oranges.

Many ICOs were actually good few years ago before the bull run, the all time high days. Those were the golden days but now, the situation has changed a lot and most of them are now scams.

Centralized coins are more prone to manipulation. So if you're holding most coins in that category, you better start thinking on how to lessen your portion with those kind of coins.

There are many good ico out there. Ethereum was one of them, the price was like 0.01 USD per coin.

You just need to understand about the technology and the market to get to know and understand what is a good project, and if the team is capable of doing what they intend.

About creation cost: this is an interesting tool that can be used, combined with many others such as technical analysis, market cap, etc, to know if the coin is cheap or not. But none of those tools can be used alone

That's true, it takes some time until difficulty catches up when BTC has a massive price increase. However, I'm still not sure if mining economics (sold BTC from miners) are affecting the price in a noticeable way. Miners are getting 1,800 BTC in average per day (6 Blocks x 24 hours x 12.5 BTC per block) + Transaction fees (around 3-10% of block rewards). That's not much compared to the trading volume of BTC per day even if miners are selling everything.

Are you sure it was that cheap? I thought it was something around 0.50$ per ETH.


You'll never know.  :P
There's always a shitcoin promising crazy things and people will buy it.  :D :D

I wouldn't say never invest in ICO's. Some of them are actually revolutionary to the industry and offer great solutions (Pundi X, BNB). I'd say, look at ICO's with much more caution and never invest unless you are 100 percent confident.

Agreed, people need to realize that most cryptocurrencies (except stablecoins) have whales behind them which makes it very easy to manipulate the price of it quickly.

Everything else is very well said. I'd personally like to add my own rule.

Don't look at crypto and blockchain technology as a way to make quick money. Appreciate the technology behind it.

You are right. The correct price was 0.31, sorry for spreading misinformation.


Anyway, that still proves my point that there are good ico out there. If you take a look at coinmarketcap, you can see how many projects on top50 were profitable just by looking at the first know price and now.

I’m not talking about icos from 4 years ago I’m talking about icos NOW. I didn’t write this 4 years ago lol

On top of that eth hasn’t completed almost any of its ico goals. Eth 2.0 has been “in development” for over 4 years.

First I agreed with this but if you guys like high risk investment with high returns in short time, you must try investing in IEO. It's all about profits, not about technical or anything else.

That is exceptionally high risk to invest in anything related to an ICO or IEO or whatever they are called now. It is a burnt concept. If it was an effective business it would not need "investment" from people hoping to get a "product". They would sell a product already.

https://www.amsinger.org

bump

Your giving terrible information.  There is no floor price for bitcoin, the creation costs means nothing for how low it can go.  There are whales that have accumulated bitcoins for less than 1 percent of what it is worth today.  nothing is stopping them from deciding to unload their btc at any given time.

And saying all ICOs are scams is just stupid.  Just because you probably got burned on some doesn't mean you can call every new project a scam.  You are incorrect.

No need to call names. Who hurt you?

And yes historically the creation cost is 100% representative of a price floor:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5177729.0 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5177729.0)

The vast majority of icos are dead. Complete waste of time and money to invest in icos.

https://www.amsinger.org/

I would also add to not purchase crypto on a creditcard. I wish I would have learned