Bitcoin Forum

Good day all,

I so much appreciate the hand of love you guys shown on my last post and I believe we all make sweet and sexy profit from the call as usual.

Let get to it, I prepared a tough analysis for us as usual.

1. Let talk on wave perspective in term of comparing the previous impulsive moves to the present position we are:

First impulsive wave started from 3160$ which ended around 4170$ this move pull about 34% before we started extended correction for about 78.6% of the whole move.

Second impulsive wave begin from 3380$ which surprised all and sundry with giant ride towards 9050$ level with totaling of 168% move, wow!!!! this is crazy and since then we begin correction that ended around 7500$.

Finally the last lapse is the wave 5 where we are right now, and this kick start from 7500$ zone and so far pull about 85% move and still yet I believe its best is not yet enough as I expect more move upside wise with potential percentage target around 127% or 200% with an equivalent price of 16000$ and 22000$. Before the major drop .

2. Talking about immediate Pattern identified on the chart.

Bullish Gartely formation with target towards 16000$
Adam and Eve pattern with targets towards 13800$
Rising channel with possible upside leg towards 22,000$.

Below are some level to watch for potential trading purpose.
11550$-11640$ = 1st Reversal level (Weak Level)
10850$-11270$= 2nd Reversal Level(Very important to watch)
10300$-10500$= 3rd Reversal level( Critical Zone for Bull)
9850$-10000$= 4th Reversal level( Last chance for BULL)

Bull stop loss is around 9100$-9300$

Failure of the above level will trigger the Bear to be in control and their potential target is 4350$.

I so much appreciate time you guys spend in reading this market update and I will like to welcome your comments and most importantly remember to give me a positive feedback for all my post.

Thank you

Your title is bi polar and makes it so you can`t be wrong, fucking dumb thread.

what do you meen exactly brother ? Remain a view my own version you have all the right to  Argue or do not apply but without any insulting please ...

He means that anybody can make such prediction. There are only 2 ways Bitcoin can go and it's up or down. Usually when we are at a level for long it means the next move will be sharp. You don't have to be a genius to know that.

What you are saying is like looking at someone standing over the edge and saying he will fall or he will walk out of there safe. Since we know he can't be standing there forever there are only 2 possible outcomes.

Bitcoin sure can take a lot of what may happen to Bitcoin Price, It could have a breakdown anything is possible and right now that the movement of bitcoin is kinda in a slow pace even if we are in the midst of Bull run people are still thinking that we are still in the bearish market which is not true, because we are in the bull market now the only problem is the movement is not enough to make an uproar, but this coming year may eventually have, We don't really need to make an elaborate prediction with the price but a faith that on that day Bitcoin may reach another All-Time High.

I honestly can't see the price dip below the $5000 level from where we are today, not even in the most *realistic* bearish scenario.

The longer the price spends time above the $10,000 level, the more time important moving averages have to climb up and thus lift the potential bottom price would a bearish scenario play out. It's just a matter of following the charts. It's not rocket science.

If we do end up going to the lower $4000 area, there is no reason why we won't retest the $3150 bottom and potentially to sink deeper. It would indicate a very important change in the market structure. This is very unlikely and probably only a viable forecast when factoring in potential black swan events.

actually the rise from $3100 to $9000 happened in at least 5 steps not 2.
you got the first one right.
the second was another rise from $3400 this time to $4200 and same fall back but like before to a higher low. price then stayed in that range by going up and down (exactly like now)
(this took 4 months so far)
then the third step was from $4200 (the breakout) to $5500 which ended with a $500  fall and price stayed in that range for a whole months.
the forth step was rise to $8.5k and a big fall down to $6k range then a lot of sideways in that range for another months.
then the fifth step was to rise above $10k passing $9k,...

in other words the 168% move that you mentioned here was first of all a recovery not exactly a crazy rise, and also it happened over the course of 6 months.

you can't make that conclusion because the two price areas are different.
prices below $9k were undervalued and we were in a reverse bubble kind of thing. which needed a big ass recovery just like a "bubble" needs a big ass burst. which is why we have that big green dildo on the charts.

the prices above $10k are the actual rally and don't have to follow the "recovery" pattern that we had so far.

lol. not a chance.

I honestly do not see what you have here as analysis because you are not being specific, if you are analyzing, then you need to be a little bit specific about the direction where bitcoin will take and you should be able to say if it will be heading upward or downward and not just these guessing game as your topic says.

Which other option do we have for bitcoin direction other than to move upward or sideways, one must definitely happen, so when I read your analysis, I expected to see that you will be more direct about your prediction and let us know exactly the directions that you feel bitcoin will go based on your own analysis. Based on my own analysis, I believe that bitcoin will be moving forward within the next few weeks and could head up for $15k.

Given the known and often recently repeated ability of Bitcoin to dump more than 10% in a single day, if not in an hour, I'm not sure it's useful to classify 4 levels barely 15% apart from the first and last. The kind of volume we're seeing (or lack of, rather) from buyers is simply causing aggressive sellers to ensure the upward movement is broken as soon as it happens. This to me means they're capable of causing sharp drops at any time.

Artificial but wholly effective for as long as people still think sub 10k isn't going to last long, since they take easy 10% at 11k. Anyone who's done that ride every opportunity since June would have almost tripled their balance.

Wow... Are you really considering a $5,000  ??? Uhmmm, such is getting my legs shaky again ::)
Well, I think that we can see retracement from time to time. The bull is here already and we can be careful though.

you are being too excited about this market and are too caught up in the lines you keep drawing on the charts which are most of the times very wrong.
of course in bitcoin it is possible to see big drops out of nowhere due to panics and manipulation but that doesn't mean they have to happen every time we reach a stable phase. you can check all the history, you see lots of these stable phases like this and only 1% of them have sudden big drops, the remaining 99% end up with the big rise after the accumulation was done.

Bitcoin's movement some time is highly unpredictable and that is because the market is still very micro! Few people can still manipulate it as they wish. Some of us has been in this market for more than 6 to 7 years now and we have seen how easy it reverse when almost all the technical indicators are pointing continuation of the trend. Now that we are having many analysis of bitcoin going down and the selling pressure is reducing I think the whales will soon take this opportunity within the next 24 hour to push the price upward.

So, if it goes beyond 13800 we can say that we are in a bull run and it could potentially go very high afterwards (at least to above 16k levels) and if we go below 9100 dollars that means we may be out of the bull run and a bear could start? That is kinda risky because we are literally right between those numbers, like literally mathematically we are in the middle of those numbers.

We have to check the prices a lot and know where we are at all times, I would suggest people to buy at 14k because if you buy at 14k the worst case scenario you will end up with 15k at least and make a profit, best case going above 20k of course, and also have a stop loss at around 9400 because if we go as low as that there is a big chance it drops even further so you would lose less this way.

we sometimes see history repeat itself but it only happens when the circumstances also repeat themselves  during that time. in bitcoin market we have seen similar patterns be repeated right now and in the foreseeable future there is nothing suggesting that any circusmtance is going to be repeated to cause such a gigantic drop as you are suggesting here! you are basically claiming bitcoin drops 60 to 70% for absolutely no reason apart from not rising!!!

Er.....OK.  This is way too much TA for my little pea brain to handle, though I certainly recall bitcoin being stuck in the mud at around $3500 or so for quite some time.  I don't know how much you can read into that aside from some very bullish sentiment in the market appearing in the form of heavy buying--that buying led to the price landing where it now stands, which is $10,940 per preev as I write this. 

Lol.  If you'd bought and held bitcoin when it was stuck in that range, you'd have done very well indeed and would not have had to employ any technical analysis whatsoever.  I think that's what a lot of smart people did who thought bitcoin to be undervalued.  The real question is where bitcoin is going to land in a year or so and how long the bull run is going to be.  I tend to think it'll reach $50k in a couple of years, but I don't have any rational arguments to present.  Bitcoin is all supply and demand--and since supply is known, the price really comes down to what the demand is.  What I do know (or strongly feel) is that the bull has not yet run its course and that $50k is well within bitcoin's reach.

I wont be surprised if the market goes down before the big rally, i expect the market to be trading on a range bound till next year and even if the market goes down to the levels you expect people will see that as an opportunity to invest for the big rally. The market will start moving up by the end of this year and then after the halving i do expect that the market will go higher to new levels.

For people who have been here for years will definitely not be shocked on where would prices do potentially go.Its always been unpredictable,either it can breakout or slump its price anytime.

Now, we are heading backwards to 10k+ range price.There's a good buy entry on 10200 if the price tends to go lower.

For users who have been into cryptocurrency usage for a long time period never finds the hard move up or down to be a panicking factor. Just think of the price $3000 from which the market grew reaching $14000. Every upward move is an opportunity to profit and every drop is an opportunity to invest. This is the trend that continues in a cyclic pattern, with this there is more chances for break down in value than growing at this point.

I feel like a hard move up is more possible than break down hard because we have seen the lower prices constantly in the past year and people are done with that, 10 thousand dollars is the level where we bottomed out (maybe a bit lower too but doesn't really matter that much) and as long as it continues to be around this place there is more money gathering right now, the more money people gather right now means there is more chances of going up with all of them purchasing bitcoin around at the same time.

That is what really changes the bitcoin price, sometimes people happen to sell at the same time by luck and that makes it fall, sometimes they happen to buy at the same time and that makes it go high, the sale already happened and the price went as low as 10 thousand from 14, I think its buyers turn this time around.

I was taking a fresh look at daily chart, it seems to me we have a reasonable case for bullish action.  Certainly this weekend I feel like it will do fine, the focus I would place right now is the 50 day moving average.    How do we challenge this, once above then consider even more the case for positive action

https://i.imgur.com/Dkm4cc1.png

Price just hit and bounced off of crucial support level of 100d Moving Average for the first time this bull market, which is what acted as support for the whole last bull market. September and October will be a hard break upwards. 4-digit btc might very well be gone forever by end of this month. I'd say much more likely to see Bitcoin at $18k in two months than $8k. Worst case scenario I think it skates along the 100d MA in the 9k's and 10k's for like a month at most before shooting upwards off 10k prices forever.

Bitcoin price has down again, and this time, the price seems to want to break down deeper. I am afraid that we will see $9k back in the next week, but if there is a massive buying at the market, then we can survive at that price and even we will have a chance to break the higher rate. But before we can see that, we need to be patient and prepare to buy more bitcoin if we want because the candle still shows the red candle. Maybe there is good news that will come out so it will impact the price to increase later slightly. The market still hard to predict, and we cannot do anything. We could only wait for a while and don't make a panic buy or sell because the price still moving.

4 digit price (that is anything below $10k) is most probably gone for good and will never happen. what we had wasn't a drop either, it was an attempt to push the price lower for a better accumulation price (in other words to be able to buy cheaper bitcoin) that failed due to the high buying pressure that goes against this action. which is why it is so hard to be broken and even if it is broken it will be temporary. the attempts have not stopped though, it is the same as $4k price that we had recently this year. a lot of pressure is trying to prevent the rise but it will breakout and shoot up because of it.

Or just whales trying to manipulate the price and put pressure on it to go below the 4 digit price. They are successful, however the price did recovery very quick, meaning that people, just casual joe's also buying at every price drop.

However, I still remember way back, early 2018, when the price started to go down very fast. A lot of people are saying that the price won't go down to 4 digit. This was the time when we just reach an all time high of almost 20k, but we all know that after that the price did go down as low as $3200. So there is no safe upper or lower bound here, it is still base on the demand at any given time.

you can't really compare the big bitcoin bubble of 2017 (@ $20k price) with the current price level. where we are now is just after a recovery from a massive drop down to $3k not a rise and far from being anywhere near a bubble! as a result you can't expect a drop, specially of the same size here...

but you are correct, the price could drop back to 4 digits. i wouldn't expect it to last there for long though. as we have seen people are too eager to buy it and the market's overall sentiment is bullish even if they are temporarily doubtful.