Bitcoin Forum

According to Porto, rapidly growing technologies have a doubling time, meaning that their effectiveness doubles within a consistent, repeatable timeframe. Traditionally, Moore’s law has been applied to computing technology, but Porto says that the bitcoin price has thus far followed the trend by more or less doubling every eight months throughout its history.

As he states:

Moore's law specifically applied to the number of transistors on a circuit but can be applied to any digital technology ... Any technology that is growing exponentially (i.e., 'following Moore's law') has a doubling time.

Assuming bitcoin continues to follow this golden rule in the near-term, Porto anticipates the bitcoin price will extend beyond $100,000 by February 2021. Using the current BTC supply for simplicity’s sake, this would give bitcoin a market cap of about $1.65 trillion. Needless to say, a $100,000 bitcoin price would thrill today's investors, assuming they have the fortitude to resist the temptation to sell them.

Move your topic here mate Speculation (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=57.0) it's more appropriate at that sub.

But yeah probably.
https://i.imgur.com/K5YhAW4.png

Bitcoin has made surprise move in the past and I do believe that it is 100% possible for bitcoin to get to $100,000 by 2021 without following the moore’ laws. The technology itself has the capacity to make that happen. I did not see any reason why bitcoin should be limited one $100,000 as it popularity keeps rising.

Moore's law seems to have petered out in general. I remember a time when the computer you bought really would be obsolete 2-3 years later. Now I use a 10yr old laptop that's still feels fine. Nothing of that nature continues in a linear fashion forever, or it becomes effectively infinite.

As for 100 grand, I never dreamt it would reach 20 grand in 2017. Four more years of better infrastructure and greater awareness feels like enough of a launchpad for it to be a possibility. The thing that bothers me is that many people are already treating it like it's in the bag.

Bitcoin either massively exceeds expectations or totally crushes them with disappointment. I think we'll either get nowhere near it or blast straight through it.

Was just telling the same to a colleague insisting I should upgrade. My puter's not that old. Bought it in 2016 as an end-line product, so BIOS and everything else installed 2013. It's now 6 years old and really, is fine for most things I do.

Problem is the apps, really. Freelancer here so you've got clients who want you on Slack, on Trello, on Discord... and while they do have Web apps for these, they're slower and the apps only marginally faster -- eating up more memory for doing really the same things older apps do.

Anyway, digressing. I think in the decade Bitcoin's been around, definitely seeing Moore's Law not catching up. Had hash power continued on its uptrend, impossible for chips to keep up, so maybe there's some sense in price being driven up just to make up for diminishing returns (in coins) for miners?

But as to whether 100k is possible, I think a lot of people are dreaming, and don't want to pinch themselves out of it.

I feel ambivalent about it. The stuff that's being built by the people who are building it wouldn't bother putting it together to service a crypto market that's as piddling as it is now. It's clearly with an eye towards monstrous growth.

In less than 4-5 years it's likely every major market player will have access to on ramps offered by their regular channels. In that scenario something would've gone a bit wrong if it wasn't at least 5x higher than when it made do with piece of shit exchanges put together by amateurs.

is it possible? yes it is , is it probable? no it isn't
100.000$ can be reached in a several years time , but not in 2021 , it is too early for that
for it to happen bitcoin would have to get approval from the mainstream businesses and companies and investment funds
not only that but get actively traded and even lobbied as the new gold , also legalized and regulated in many countries
and even then 10x in a couple of years time seems very unlikely to me - no mass adoption , no transaction speed increase ( LN is going slower than I'd like )

(for the perspective)

These discussions have been there many times before and bitcoin don't give a f**k  8).

When bitcoin was <$100 then $1000 seemed impossible.
 - $10k was ludicrous
 - $19k would make you a certifiable lunatic.

Yet this all happened since 2013 (6 years).

The next 5 years can be just as insane. My gut says no but it has happened before.....

Nice prediction almost right on prices from April to July,now what we are waiting is the October in witch very crucial.because just like what happen in fourth quarter of 2017 when the price starts to grow higher and the history recorded in 2017 December as we hit the highest price crypto ever had

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In order for this to take effect atleast holders will keep theirs and investors must return back specially those where gone when the doom of market happen in 2018.

It is all speculation and we are in speculation section of bitcointalk so anyone who says it will reach there or says it won't reach there all have a say in this. I think 100k is too much but I can sort of understand people who say it will, its really a long time in bitcoin life, think about where we were 2 years ago, we were around 1000 dollars just 2 years ago, since then we have moved to 20 and then to 3 then to over 10 once again, that all happened in 2 years life span of bitcoin, so if you think about it then 100 thousand dollars is not really that impossible and quite doable for bitcoin.

It is just that the number is way too high for many people to accept that easily however if you think about it when bitcoin was 30 dollars or even at 1 thousand dollars people wouldn't believe you it will become 20 thousand dollars neither.

One of the most consistent things I've observed is the complete inability of people to conceive of numbers slightly beyond their own tiny mind.

Mining is a case in point. Time and again people write threads about how 100% unsustainable it is to keep buying that insane 1800 coins per day. No way can an entire planet support that, no sirree. In reality it's about $90,000 per country per day. More is probably spent on hair transplants for hamsters.

lets just say that i don't see any reason to think otherwise!
we have see the price rise so far, we have also seen the potential that bitcoin has. and from this potential, only a very small percentage of it is met which means we still have a long way to go.
so all i see is more big rises in the future. $100k is only one of them. and unless i see mass adoption of bitcoin or i see bitcoin stops sticking to its principles (such as being decentralized, having a limited supply,...) i expect this trend to continue.

I can't really blame people for thinking that. Most people here consider crypto the only ever opportunity to 'easily' accumulate a lot of wealth in a relatively quick fashion. If they had to work for this, they probably wouldn't be able to get anywhere near the financial level they are currently, especially when you live from paycheck to paycheck and have nothing to put aside.

It's definitely more healthy to just be a rational investor and have only a few % of your net worth in Bitcoin, but we as hardcore hodlers are far from rational. In the end, $100,000 isn't that far fetched. I am convinced that we will get there with patience. Never bet against Bitcoin. It will rekkt you long term speaking.

If we look back at the bitcoin whitepaper which was written by Satoshi and the previous success story of bitcoin accumulators we should blame every individual which belief bitcoin to be the ever opportunity to be wealthy cause bitcoin was also created for making people financial freedom.
With that been said, the prediction of 100K by 2021 is not possible.

This seems like a bizarre application of Moore’s law. I don't think time nor price is nearly that predictable. I prefer Gartner hype cycles (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hype_cycle) as a model for Bitcoin's growth.


People perpetually underestimate the power of hype and Bitcoin's extreme scarcity. Most people around here can't even imagine $100K, let alone $1 million. That just makes me smile. :)

I think this may be a fundamental failing of the human condition. Number of galaxies, distances between them, density of a hydrogen atom, size of that atom, etc. We don't do really small and really big very well at all, from an intuitive point of view and I think that leads to a lot of wrongheaded assumptions when people apply "common sense" to a whole host of topics.

Yes. And I think it's used against the average human on a regular basis. A classic case is 'billion'. We hear this countless times a day in the news by governments and businesses until it gets to the point where the average taxpayer thinks 'hell, what's another billion?'

One million seconds is 11 days. One billion seconds is nearly 32 years.

Politicians should be forced to say 'thousand million' and blow out their cheeks and throw out their arms to emphasize how vast that number is.

It's usual to see that the majority are optimistic about the possible "dream price" that will happen a few years later. There are lots of good predictions and speculations backed-up by a professional analysis. Does really have the sense to read since they have valid pointers.

However, all those analyses will just happen if it will not be spoiled by a certain event that can pull down the price such as sudden exchange crash, bad events, negative views by a large institution, government involvement or something along those lines.

From the span of 2019-2021, there are possibly lots of happening which can dictate where the price should go. Whatever happens, bitcoin price will surely reach those believer's target. However, the question is "when" so don't expect too much that something will happen good year by year. As long as the price is steadily pushing up, with only a few crashes along the way, we might see a 5 digit price as the "new bottom".  

The white paper isn't law. Bitcoin is freedom as you also indicated, which means that regardless of your own point of view on speculation or people trying to accumulate wealth through Bitcoin, you can't do anything about it to stop them. Nothing wrong with people using Bitcoin to progress in life. Don't blame anyone for doing so.

I'm balls deep in Bitcoin and convinced of its success in the long run, but there are enough people who think it has a shelf life and therefore try to make the best out of it whenever they can and while they still can.

What should they do to emphasize a trillion?   :D

maybe something like this:

https://i.imgur.com/LodbzWH.gif


the whitepaper also doesn't mention anything about "freedom" or anything philosophical like that. at most, bitcoin was described as a way to eliminate trust and prevent fraud in electronic/online payments.

 :D :D :D  :D

I’ve seen this picture many times, and as of now the prediction is still accurate. If the price on October hits the prediction then I will start to believe on that guy. $100k is reachable at no specific time, with bitcoin its going to happen unexpectedly. I just hope that the prediction above is true, this is just a guide for us.

True! $100k is reachable at no specific time. Therefore no one really knows what would be the future and the only way we can rely on something in the future is the chart, the chart that tells us everything. We just don't expect that $100k will going to happen soon as the title says in 2021 but i highly doubt about it.

Bitcoin can reach $100k in anytime even that will happens soon before 2021 because we are free to predict when it will happen. The truth is bitcoin will reach that number in the future, when is the future? No one will know

We don't have any clue when bitcoin can reach that number, but if we see that image, I think in this year, we will going to see a surprise from bitcoin and we could hope that it's about the increasing of the price. And we can expect that the price can surely reach $16k as in the image, so let see what will happen later.

TBH it looks like pretty healthy growth, and doesn't even require us to go completely parabolic. I think we will hit $300k by the end of 2021.https://i.imgur.com/Qwba5mi.png

No. I think bitcoin will reach no more than 20K in 2021. Yes, it's interesting - but there is already a lot of alternative cryptocurrencies. And 100K for 1 BTC  - is too much for nothing ))

this topic and some of the replies is yet another reason why we are in a similar situation as 2015 and 2012, and a couple of other older cases. we are yet in another slowed down situation where price isn't making big jumps like the previous phase (2017) and everyone starts seeing some big prediction (it was $20k, $50k in 2015 and is $100k, $300k for 2019) and start thinking whether it is possible just because the "number looks big".
you can even find topics about people speculating price reaching $1 back in the early days and other being skeptical about the price being too big to reach ;)

That is just barely in 2 years’ time, hmm, I am sure that satoshi would not even forecast that bitcoin price would have reached this amount by now, so I don’t know where all these speculators are getting these forecast figures from.

It is not about just forecasting, they have to back it up with real fact, maybe some calculations that made them arrive at that, and then mathematicians and economist, and all financial experts will then check too to see how realistic it is, it is not just about waking up one day, and then determine from the heart that bitcoin will reach such amount of value through believe. Well, the market develops more on a speculative one, so I will still have to support and believe in my heart too that something will happen that will make it possible.

Have you just bought this account?

That's how bubbliness works. It's rapid, violent and ludicrously exceeds expectations. Then you get a kicking for several years afterwards.

One year to the day before the price hit 20 grand the price was about $950.

 

If the price plays out in the same pattern as previous bear to bull market transitions plus the effects of each halving included then this is something that could be close to reality.

if the support is indeed large, the price maybe can reach beclose to that. it's just that, for now, I haven't thought about up to the price of $ 100k because ATH price from bitcoin is also still quite far from the current price and has not been passed since 2017.

so far, the prediction that I can think is that the price of bitcoin can reach $ 15k in the near future. Well, I'm very optimistic about this, but I might think that the price of bitcoin can reach $ 100k when the price of BTC exceeds the ATH.

It is absolutely possible if we are ready to work toward it, then if we are ready, dumping of the coin often that often crashes the market every time bitcoin wants to rise must first stop, people must be willing to hold the coin for long, and create as much as possible hype that will make people know about bitcoin so that the adoption rate can increase and so that demand can also increase.

If there is constant high demand for the bitcoin, then we will see the value leaping from time to time and this time around, the bull run will not end like it ended in the last one within 7 consecutive weeks. If there is no increase in adoption rate, and people continue to do shorts with bitcoin, then there is no magic that will do that because this speculator would not be the one to buy up the whole cryptocurrency in the market.

I will admit that is a possibility however I do not see bitcoin reaching that kind of price without being helped by very specific circumstances, right now the average person is happy with the way the fiat system works and they do not see the need for a form of money that is independent from government control, but if a big crisis hit us during that time frame then we could see a huge segment of the population adopting bitcoin very quickly which will no doubt make the price to skyrocket as well and give us a chance to reach 100k.

What I do believe is Bitcoin will grow year after year but to be specific in prices?i don’t think it is reasonable to expect something specially in th volatility of cryptocurrency..I prefer to be happy enough if the price of Bitcoin will reach atleast more than $20,000
Alternative cryptocurrency has nothing to do with the growth of bitcoin in future,and before you say that altcoins can hinder the pump of bitcoin better check the dominance of capitalization of bitcoin over altcoins because you seems to be not a bitcoin supporter

It is not about how much number looks big or what people think, it is about how much money is in order books for both sides (going down or up) and it looks like there is way too many sell orders compared to buy orders when we are going up, hence if you want to go to 100k I am sure some of the orders we have will be gone because people will want to sell higher when they see price going up however there will be A WHOLE LOT more put on sell orders because people will want to cash out on their profits, we are talking about billions of dollars cashing out of bitcoin world which means we need at least that much and then some to make it keep going up.

We don't have that kind of hype or interest towards bitcoin, sure we have some but not billions of dollars of trading.

You call all those coins alternatives? Now look at it, what is the status of those coins that you call alternative now? Is bitcoin still not growing while they are seriously declining, I thought you said they are alternatives, if they are alternatives, how come they watched bitcoin grow to $19800 in that last bull run, and how come they still watched bitcoin grow to $13800 in that last high that we got recently.

Look at much news that are coming up today, which coin are they all associating with? Still bitcoin. Don’t be deceived by those altcoins that are just here to play, bitcoin remain the only top coin and some other few to altcoins in the market like Ethereum, Binance and other altcoins that are within the scope of top 50 coins in the crypto market.

It's really easy to write these calculations, but in practice things are very different, in practice we have to count on that there are still regulatory hurdles in this market and these issues involving regulations will not end anytime soon and will take years and affect demand. . That's why I find it hard for the price to reach $ 100,000 by 2022... at most we'll see $ 60,000 by 2022


maybe he is the time traveler that jonh McAfee mentioned

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/BrokenHoarseBeaver-small.gif

I will pin this post for sure I'm gonna buy more bitcoin if ever happens and reaches 16k USD on October, but for now I will just wait and read news about the trending stuff in crypto.

I really think that bitcoin should reach $100,000 in 2023 or 2024 not in 2021 it is just too soon to be there. The market is acting strange lately and it's been a week since bitcoin dropped from the stable price of $11,000 and now is struggling to move up. We merely make some prediction that doesn't correlate with the current situation of the market, it's baseless.

You can bet BTC will be unpredictable, the first part of the recovery yes that works but the rest being a regular repeat of that rise like all this is as simple as a game of dominos and its a clear horizon plain weather all the way.   I dont believe it, stormy weather is what I expect and if BTC is sea worthy then'll it emerge the other side and we cant predict in what state or price.

I'm so optimistic about bitcoin, but I'm not so sure that in 2021 the price of bitcoin can be that high. Well, I'm sure, the increase in the price of bitcoin will occur in 2020, only if you look at the facts, the increase in bitcoin will not go up that high even though there is a lot of information that supports it. What's more, in my experience, after the price of bitcoin goes up, there will be a lot of FUD from people who hate it. Well, I learned that when the price of bitcoin reached its ATH in 2017. However, we cannot predict that precisely, but I expect the best.

Huh?needed to wait for things to happen before purchasing?if that’s your views in cryptocurrency specially in Bitcoin then there’s no chance that you are having good profit in this area because the volatility of cryptocurrency is what we need to reach the target and you cannot have it by continuously waiting for growth to purchase

The bull will run anytime so you must be ready for this and waiting till October will prevent you from fulfilling this goal,I suggest you to start buying now even with smaller volume time after time

Is it gonna be some sort of excitement to see Bitcoin for 3 or 5 years? We saw its price reach at $20k (shortly) last 2017 and it doesn't sure that every year it will double the price. It is quite really optimistic mate. We'd all be happy anyway but somehow it affects the numbers of investors cause it is too much expensive and those low investors can't afford anymore.