Bitcoin Forum

08.24.19
Current price: $10,162
Prediction: huge correction within 48 hours (8K range)

I’ve been into BTC since 2014, and I am NOT a trader. I can read the charts somewhat. Every analyst is pointing out right now that there is a descending wedge, coiling price, and dropping volume. They are also claiming a symmetrical triangle. A lot of them are expecting a break to the upside because we are technically in a “bull market.”

I firmly disagree. The sentiment right now is a little negative. After this huge run up I expect a break down to like 8K or lower.

I could be wrong, I hope I’m wrong. And I’m not willing to sell any bitcoin and take a chance.

But I think I’m right! (Let’s see if this ages well?)

UPDATE 08.29.19
Ok, so I got the time frame, and direction...but it got to 9400, didn’t quite get to the 8000k range.

NEXT PREDICTION: By September 5th...bitcoin will be between 8200-8600 range. I know it’s a big range. But that’s still a huge drop from here.

(We will likely get close to 10K first. Possibly tomorrow or Saturday. May even get slightly over. But than crash down to 8200-8600 by 11:59PM sept 5)

I think that we are in corrective move and 8k is possible
It even correspond with unfilled CME gap
But it will be not in 48 hours.It will take tame .Moves to support level then speculative up then shorting etc
I am expecting some speculative up to Bakkt launch then last corrective move down
From late October early November we will have our parabolic run 

You can short Bitcoin with a stop loss so that you don't lose out too much in case you're prediction is wrong.

What I am looking at is a large descending triangle on the daily time frame, but in my opinion it doesn't look like it is going to break out any time soon at all.

The thing with people currently being overly bearish is that this lays the foundation for a brutal counter move. Generally speaking, these descending triangles tend to break out to the downside, but Gold has actually broken out of a descending triangle to the upside last week. For what it's worth, I prefer to be neutral right now. No open positions.

The problem with sideways is that, if you are into a DCA strategy, the more you buy the less coverage you'll have in case the price fall to the level below. I've just received some money but Im waiting for some movement (both up or down) to buy, because I already bought at the current level. Sideways is bad when you are buying into a ladder.

8k would be a good entry point, but these dips are becoming rarer as time passes. I believe bitcoin might skyrocket at any moment.

And I disagree with your assessment--look at where the price is.  Sentiment is not negative at all; bitcoin was at around $3500 not too long ago, and even though it's stalled again right now it hasn't crashed and I don't think it's going to.

You say you can read charts and that bitcoin is in for a drop in the next 48 hours, and I'm a devout TA skeptic.  I'm going to bookmark this thread and see where bitcoin is in 2 days.  We'll see if you're correct.

To be clear, you're saying this:

Yep, if I had any money to invest (which it seems like I never do), I'd buy in at $8k in a heartbeat if bitcoin dropped that low.  It certainly could, and I would never say it's impossible, but my intuition is telling me it's not going to.  Certainly not in 48 hours as OP as predicted.

I expect a huge drop also but the '48 hour' could bring questions. I will advise you if you fail with this prediction in the next 2days, in subsequent predictions never attach a time/period.

Everybody seem to be agreeing on the fall prediction but the time frame seem the diverse view. Anyway, I think the fall is being agreed on because bitcoin is really not very volatile. I'm just careful because we are approaching a season and anything can happen either way.

Lol!!!!! If you really know how to read the charts “somehow” then you know the descending wedge pattern is not a bearish pattern but a bullish pattern when it is coupled with a decreasing volume shows that it's a healthy correction that you don't have to worry about it going down even further. I don't know if you really made this thread purposely to be negative and see how others will correct you but hopefully you still learn how to read charts properly before you mislead yourself.

I’m a huge TA skeptic as well. I am not a trader. I buy dips and HODL. I am also TERRIBLE at timing the market and if I say it’s going down...it’s going up!!

I just feel THIS TIME I might be right. That spring is coiling right. A major move is most likely coming up or down. I just think it’s going to be down. Just my gut.

Lets get one thing straight...I am right 50% of the time everytime!

To tell you the truth It would be satisfying to see Bitcoin price dropping, but not altcoins moving at the same downwards trend.
I want to see funds moving from bitcoin to altcoins because there is a huge difference in their prices right now.

Quoted.

I’ll be back to bump this in 48 hours & hopefully you’re wrong & have made yourself look stupid. If not then everybody gets another chance to gobble up cheap coins - WIN WIN.

Well, it is a huge triangle formation. If it breaks down from that, in spite of the bullishness of some news and the coming halving, then it is really bearish. But I bet it wouldn't go far below $8000.

Anyway, all are probably waiting which direction the price will go.

Nice strategy. I am also doing something similar. The difference is, I am constantly DCA'ing my position regardless of the current price. $3k, $8k, $20k doesn't matter. I buy every week. Buying the dips when major corrections happen.

Also don't act like It is a certainty. Yes the chart looks like there can be a correction to $8k, or even $7.5k soon but you need to calculate all the possibilities. What if it directly goes to a new all year and high makes its correction from there?

I am ready for both scenarios. Have the FIAT, have the BTC (not enough coins but I believe I am in a better position than many). I can make money whichever way BTC decides to go.

This is what they call in gambling: "surebet"

Check my triangle too if you want:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/3l1JOd99-Wedge/

I believe we are very near of a big move. Whenever BTC gets stuck in a tight zone like this and the candles become very small, It ends up exploding in a direction. (hopefully it will be upwards, but like I said, downwards has its chances too)

Some technical indicator have mentioned bearish while majority of the technical indications were still bullish. During the previous bull run too we experienced the price reach the low bottom as a cyclic process before moving high. There is more predictions for the price reach a 50% drop which is $5000. By the same time there is more expectations for the next few weeks for the price of bitcoin to cross $14000.

I cannot find the one thread that seems to be similar to this.
Same with the 8k range.
Now I am in a worry and also with a smile.
That could be again another entry point for some buyers and also me. It is a risk though to sell. There is no safety pin.  ;D
I guess for now we could just wait.
This kind of prediction had been also going on outside this forum. Will be reading deeper.

Everything is possible, we could have a flash crash, a rapid decline to $8k is really possible. Negative news, FUD can be one reason to bring the price to its knees. And that is why we see this market as very volatile and unstable.

---

A lot of similar threads last month if I'm not mistaken. They said that the price can go down to $8k, but so far we haven't seen the price going that deep after reaching as high as $13k. It's better to be prepared. And wise investors are only waiting for this kind of opportunity to bag more coins. So we will see if this scenario will happen.

He pertains into those patters been said by other analyst or traders which tends to break upside on a bull market.You had just misunderstand yet OP's view is pertaining to go into the opposite way basing on his own technical or chart read ups.  :)

We cant really completely oppose someones speculation because all of us are speculators into this very speculative market.Heading back to 8k price mark is possible anytime thats why as a trader we should know how to put up our stop losses if we do make shorts.

Very possible. I'm not sure whether we stay sideways for the next month or plunge down to the lower $8,000s but the chart doesn't look ready for bullish continuation yet. And longs are still mighty high. It looks like we need to shake the trees a bit.


Most analysts are bullish right now, but a few of the best are not. Check out the threads of xxxx123abcxxxx (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.0) and dmwardjr. (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5140701.0)

For now i am on phase to hold my fiat and hold little amount of bitcoin, actually for now it is lowest that 0.1 BTC. Maybe because see a lot of people who speculate if bitcoin price will decreased, i will hold more and maybe prepare to buy some if bitcoin price move significant. I think when i read people speculate, i will make it as benchmark or maybe help me to analyze bitcoin price although my analyze skill still not very good.

You seem to be not confident with your prediction although you have said that you know how to read charts. I've seen predictors that said the same thing but not many of them got the successful predictions.

We'll see if your accuracy is good in predicting and reading the charts.

Baseless prediction. If I am convinced of a dump to happen within 48 hours, I'll try to trade it and go short. If you're just hodling (thus don't plan to sell anything) I don't see why you're so hyped up about a potential drop?

The thing with predictions is that you can always use the unpredictability of trading as excuse. In other words, you're pretty much backed up even when you're wrong because you can always point to that aspect of trading.

I think people are getting frustrated by the sideways price action and become more bearish as result of that. Sideways accumulation doesn't really have to have a bias towards a certain direction. It can just as easily spike up.

I just took a huge dump .... was a huge drop with a splash at the end.... OP was right  ;D

Sentiment is a factor to watch but not something I would trade off directly because people are so often wrong, they move as a herd.   Do I always want to follow the herd even when they going full lemmings over a cliff, not really.

Going short would be reasonable if you are prepared to pay the price and take the risk but also be sensible to place a stop loss.   If we go up, it'll break up and the market often tries to force out stops before it moves in its true direction.
    So for example we get some news perhaps or it could be nothing known exactly just a higher patch of volume and maybe we spike up but the price meets hard resistance and sells.   Then we get the true sell from that resistance, all the leveraged buys who had hoped for a move up find the price selling here is time to cash out (maybe a trailing stop loss) and together with the true bears we actually move downwards properly and now with enough run up and participation to break the previous support that had contained us.
    The failed up move can be very bearish, sadly it also is tricky to ride like a bucking bull and throws off alot of casual speculators.   I rarely find easy profits, wish it was easier but havent found that path yet.

https://i.imgur.com/dJUo1Oi.png

Heres my view of the market on daily bars, big time period but I post it because its quite clear we have not moved much overall for a while.   We are confined between the bars of a bigger move previous.   The clearest indicator we have in common accepted by all would be the 50 day average.   Its not resistance as such, its a wind vane but I take notice when it lies overhead and appears to be a ceiling such as now.   Hence a bearish call is not so off but can I catch what the market throws when we idle back and forth like this.   Stop loss has to be 11k I guess, its not that cheap to bet when not sure.

Leveraged trades as a whole at the moment are pretty risky especially if you're setting tight stops as there's been no shortage of stop hunts recently for both longs and shorts from a glance at the 4H and 1D charts. Best move might just be to sit this out because things just seem so coiled up right now and another candle like the one two days ago could easily stop out your short(s) and reverse in the other direction once more. It does seem like the 100DMA is acting as some sort of support at the moment though, and the daily MACD looks somewhat close to flipping green as well.

The bear sideways did happen after 48hrs had passed. Just small bears. But it did not touched down to $8k. And there is also a huge bear in my indicator which i highly unsure when will gonna happen since we cant really predict "when" is that time. If it doesnt break the resistance to go up again, then expect some bears will enter the crypto market again. Perhaps this is not new, something like this will eventually happen. If you are a margin trader, you can take that as an opportunity to enter a short trades.

No extensions? 8)


But as someone knowing that it might "crash" to $8,000, how would you take it? It should be as an opportunity in my opinion. By the next halving, we might never see Bitcoin trading below $10,000 again.

There is going to be a drop below $10,000 and that if the 100 moving average on a daily chart that has moved above $10,000 is broken and we have a closing candlestick below it.
The road to $8000 has met with strong rejection around $9100 for three times now and let see what happens this time around.

cool . your better than other traders out there that dont know how to read the charts but it is really hard to predict a crypto . if you can only use your talent for your own good ( e.g doing trades ) i think you are now a rich man but i still like the idea of sharing your predcitions to others freely wihout any asking for returns like others does   . thanks for the warning tho  .  i think im going to prepare now asap   ...

We don't need to be too much excitement about what we feel when we saw the market at red. It all just because of the volatility and the market aren't in our control and to think that all be in the upclimbing scenarios.

We're getting back into $10,157 at this time and it has to say that dumps meant nothing but just an ordinary market trend.

if you are NOT a trader then you have no understanding of short term movements of bitcoin and you don't get to "predict" them either ;)

"every analyst" was also seeing these descending wedges when price wasn't going up and was stuck in $3k range and they were "all" predicting price to fall down to $1000. the rest is history ;)

sentiment is confused and undecided. it is neither positive nor negative.

you are a couple of weeks late. we had the huge run ups and the hard break downs already!

well you have no reason to be right or wrong. as you discredited your whole statement in your first line, you are not a trader you just made a random guess and guesses aren't either right nor wrong. they just guesses.

I agree with you I am also waiting a breakout to the down side. But the target is not 8k or below. My target is 8800-9000 USD. And the timing is not in few days. By the way the big break out which will move BTC maybe 3k or more is probably will accrue in September.

You cannot really read charts if you are not a trader. I mean, how can you predict about something you don't have knowledge about? Seeing it and being in it are 2 different things and I can say that there are chances of a drop but not so steep. I think it should stop near $9500 area where it used to be strong for few days before from where it rebounded.

24+ hours and price is $10200+, -$2000 in next 24 hours? It may happen, but this speculation does not make sense to me and I give it less then 10% to be correct.

No one noticed that the OP even set the wrong date 08.24.19 ( posted on 27.08.2019), so if we take that as a reference it's already completely missed speculation. Realistically, something like this has no significant impact on the market, it can only confuse some inexperienced users, so it is better to not post speculations based only on some personal feeling.

Well, nothing happened so far, but dude said 48 hours so let's wait until tomorrow to start saying he was wrong.

However, it looks like he was totally wrong, what people have not realized even after years and years of following bitcoin is that price doesn't have to do anything you expect it to do, SMA or BB or whatever could be looking like it will definitely go up or down, like there is no way its not doing that, the charts say exactly whats about to happen and no way around it, it would still do some crazy move and you wouldn't believe it.

Hence, I say do not get too attached to charts because none of that matters when it comes down to bitcoin. Bitcoin is a decentralized unregulated currency with a market that is used by ton of people all around the world from every country, anything could happen with those calculations.

We just dropped to 10K in 1 min. I think it’s starting.

I told it some days ago, wouldn't be surprised if it goes below $7,500. But now I'm more and more confident the scenario will happen.
At least we will be fixed to know if the downtrend continues or not. We turned to a fear period for some days.

By the way

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EC-y1lsXUAEOnBF?format=jpg&name=900x900


https://twitter.com/TheCryptomist/status/1166347470902833154

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if random guesses from amateurs performed better than predictions from Brian Kelly, Tom Lee, and other prominent "experts."


Descending wedges are a bullish pattern, perhaps a weak performer though. This is what Tom Bulkowski has to say about them: http://thepatternsite.com/fallwedge.html

The OP is saying everyone else is bullish and he's taking the contrarian position.


I more or less agree, and that's one of the reasons I don't think we're ready to go up yet. Longs are high, shorts are low, and sentiment is not bearish. If anything it's leaning bullish. These aren't the usual conditions from which a significant upside breakout occurs. It's usually when everyone expects down that we go up. We're not there yet.

We are dropping like a rock. $9800

Too early to dismiss my prediction.

Looks like your comment might not age well!!!

http://img4.imagetitan.com/img4/small/20/20_314c361a-eac2-4481-a48b-128757cd6874.jpeg (http://img4.imagetitan.com/img.php?image=20_314c361a-eac2-4481-a48b-128757cd6874.jpeg)

good call, DrBitcoin. now that we've broken down from this 2-week long flag and made new lows, it's highly likely to at least retest the $9100 area. i'm wondering if we might crash through those lows (triple bottoms are unicorns!) and get a deep final shakeout to liquidate/scare off longs.

bitfinex/bitmex sentiment is still bullish. $7500-$8k still possible IMO.

Possibly. I’ve been in this space since 2014 and check my history here. I am definitely an amateur but I go with my gut

We are still not in $8k range and this very well may jump back above $10k+ but I still merit'ed you because of the recent action.

Don't act like nostradamus, yet. Come back when we see 8k.

Fair enough. I think at this point I should be given another 48 hours to reach 8K. I got the time and direction right, and while there still is time to hit 8K in the original 48 hour period, hitting it a day or two later wouldn’t be that off. Of course if it doesn’t hit 8K during this time I was flat out wrong about that.

Your prediction was 48 days. You deleted the post where you said it was a typo and you meant 48 days.

Would you also write in the title of this thread 'I WAS WRONG' if we broke out to the upside? I guess not.

A breakout was imminent, the direction was more of a bet call with a 50% probability of being right. I do expect a bounce back up to $10,000 in the coming days rather than a further decline, but that's if we respect the descending triangle for the time being. If not, then we can see the price dip below $8000 fast. In that case I'm looking to be a buyer in the lower $7000 area.

We'll see where it goes. Bitcoin never fails to disappoint.  :D

Saw that too. Backpedalling like this killed most of your credibility sadly.

I made lots of wrong predictions in the past. Just take it in the butt and move on. You are not the first one who made a wrong prediction.

That was a joke. I thought 48 hours wasn’t going to happen, so I made a joke “I meant 48 days.” But it was intended as a joke responding to someone else’s comment. I deleted it because the drop happened as predicted so it no longer made sense.

The original post was 48 hours. NOT 48 days. Read the first few responses it confirms this.

Dude, it needs to drop more before you can claim & victory on this prediction. If we go to $8500 then you can claim to be a visionary :D

Dude. It’s all kind of a joke. I’m not claiming to be a visionary. I get a lot wrong. Probably more wrong than right.

As a former winner of micgoosen's prediction game, you know better than most how this happens!

And didn't someone in the last round almost win with a random Q2 price guess of $12345?

Experts have too much skin in the game, to borrow from someone's theory about Bitcoin value. When you got too much in the game, you can't think clearly. Random guys with no wool over their eyes more likely to aim truer.

I know I just said a bunch of nonsense. But that's how it is.

Don't worry DrBitcoin, it your prophesy will come true, and then some. Long term support levels were just broken pretty hard, and with big volume that is too. The slaughter will not end here, i can tell you that.
Technically the bears are back in control.
Add to that the sell-off that is coming from the Craig-Kleiman case. We're set for a 3-4k range by the end of September.

12345 ftw :D    simple logic works, remember the SPY low after Lehmans failed was 666 which is probably because half because its so easy to type and also memorable.      Any common factor matters if its shared by those in the market, the problem BTC has is the price is global not in dollars really or thats how I see it.

https://i.imgur.com/K6kkKtB.png

Decent drop but not huge by BTC standards.    Lets see it confirm the break of trend, its already failed to challenge 50 day moving average and its suffered a loss because of that partly I think.     Really we now enter into the daily bars argument and it can come back, I'm a wuss I want to see it whipsaw up and then bet it goes down because that gives me the cheapest chance to be right.
    Right this moment you might get some pain if trying to jump on the band wagon as theres many people who buy in wanting another bounce.



I read back the OP and I still dont grasp the reasoning, you seem quite certain.   Sentiment ?   hard to gauge this and in which areas, the whole of twitter out weighs anything we think, 50 cent could pipe up and say something and make us all wrong.   Only thing I trust is the charts because it contains all opinions to some extent and historic momentum, volume.   I gave a merit anyway for the audacity to make an outright call in the speculation forum.   8k would be significant.

You are a joke. I saw it to.  But it dont really matter, huge drop can also happen in 48 weeks.

It's a 'joke' people don't seem to be keen on accepting as such with all the clowns we have predicting the price to go up and down. They only show up and claim being right once they are lucky enough to actually be right.

Honestly speaking, you seem to be leaning towards one of these type as well. Also, you being right holds no significance if you don't put your money where your mouth is. So convinced yet nothing you did to benefit from this 'obvious' drop.

Been HODLING since 2014. That’s the only “right” thing I’ve done.

I’m hoping things tank. I want to buy more.

Im not really a fan on listening others vision or predictions but honestly when i do read up this thread i luckily closed up my long position on leverage. Good call  8)

Yep, every day I look at the BTC price and say, its gonna go down. Eventually, I've been right!

Some days I say BTC is gonna pump! Also some days I'm right also!

The problem with Bitcoin is like the drop today, some say it was because of this whale, doing this buy, in order to keep the price of BTC high as he sold down

from other BTC addresses.

https://eng.ambcrypto.com/bitcoins-130-million-buy-wall-on-bitmex-is-either-an-actual-whale-helping-bulls-or-a-spoof-trader-trying-to-profit/ (https://eng.ambcrypto.com/bitcoins-130-million-buy-wall-on-bitmex-is-either-an-actual-whale-helping-bulls-or-a-spoof-trader-trying-to-profit/)

As long as BTC Whales can move the market, (the billionaire class of BTC whales) with the 'ease' that I could manipulate some altcoin/sh*tcoin for say

$1,200 (of which $200 is risked) as a comparison to how it would affect my finances and I assume how he feels about the 130 million affecting this.

Well, you are gonna have 20-40% variations in price. This is where Boom and Bust came from. This was the common way to make and lose fortunes before

the early 1900's, hell until the 1930s and beyond. We are back to these times with all currencies virtual or fiat.

In the 1800s and this was common, it was due to NOT having enough info. (Ships at sea, no one knew what was on them...thus 'speculation' or educated guesses)

Now we are in a time, where there is SO much info you can spin any story anyway and speculate accordingly.

So with the BTC market and whales and bots and a little finesse, you can make pretty good coin. Perhaps 'chump change' for fun to a Billionaire Bitcoin Whale, but

hey, they can have fun too I guess.

Get used to this, this is not gonna go away any time soon, if ever.

The game will continue to murky the waters with too much 'real' info, not enough facts and big players messing up the grass, along with the usual FUD.

Bitcoin: This is how we roll! (tm Bitcoin)

Brad

where?!!!
this is the same thing that has been happening over the past 30+ days. price goes to $10k+ range then comes back down to $9k+ range and the goes back up again. the minimum that was reached this time is not yet as big as last two times for you to get excited ;)

your "prediction" is not a correction by the way, you are expecting a crash to $8k which has not yet happened and this drop is not "like a rock" as long as it is the same thing as before inside the same range as before!!
https://i.imgur.com/hpf2AMQ.jpg

OP, you are not right yet! The drop to $9,000 might solidify support if that doesn't break, maybe? Haha. It was already tested twice since July. It might become an opportunity to buy, not sell.

Hmm, it didn't even go below 9500.

until now, the price of bitcoin has slowly declined. the last time I tried to look at the price of bitcoin, it was in the range of $ 9500. I hope the price of bitcoin does not go down below the price of $ 9,000.

yesterday the price reached $ 10200 and is currently under $ 10,000 in less than 30 minutes. well, of course, many people are surprised to see this. even in coindesk too, this became a popular news

https://www.coindesk.com/crypto-market-sees-red-as-bitcoin-price-drops-600-in-30-minutes

The bitcoin market is really a volatile market. I was watching the market yesterday when this huge drop happens and it doesn't take up to 25 minutes! Bitcoin loses about $600. The only time I have seen this type of volatility is early last month when bitcoin make $1000 within 30 minutes. Hope the market recover soon.

Exactly, unbelievable that some behave as if the OP really was right, and that even last night he announced (change title) "I was right", in time BTC is lost only $400 in value. If anyone want to check price in last 3 months (https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/historical-data/?start=20190529&end=20190829), it is very easy to see that we see similar price drops at least 2-3 times. There's nothing weird about that, is is just time of year when market is act like this, and it is very easy to manipulate with price.

I see this drop as only one more attempt to shake weak hands and take more cheap coins from them, only 4 months is left before the end of the year, and if there is any significant upward action, this will happen in the next few months.

Fair enough. But it’s currently $9400 range. 8K could easily happen today.

That said...I am long term holder. So when it goes down heavy, I look at it as a buying opportunity. I don’t trade, because I ALWAYS lose money that way.

I had to admit that you seem to have a good accuracy for your prediction because the market went down. But the price that you had given hasn't been met and we're still few hundreds of bucks away.

OP, although it was one of the most honest-looking speculations, I didn't think a drop to 8k or lower is highly possible (especially as Bakkt will finally run, it seems).
But I would have given you some credit for your post if you wouldn't have been bragging "I WAS RIGHT" when it didn't go down so much (actually it's still in the range I was expecting).
So no. You were not right. In that time frame it was not even remotely near to 8k. And the time frame has closed.

Time for a new 48hr prediction thread  :P

Less than 20% drop? That's very easy to do. How many days this year alone have we seen 20% drops? And in so-called periods of really low volatility and volume? So yeah, I'm definitely on for that kind of drop but preferably right on 31 August so that I get paid at the dip for my next invoicing =D

We're all long-termers, I think few people would claim otherwise. But what's long term mean to each of us? I suspect that's very different.

BTW, don't you at least sell every now and then for needed cash?

I would disagree on that we all are long-term holders, many on this forum trade a lot, or sell everything they earn in any way. Patience is a virtue that not everyone has, and if you need money for food and other basic necessities of life, holding is something that is almost impossible to do.

I almost never sell any coins, but I pay for goods&services with Bitcoin on a regular basis. I believe it is a great method of storing value, few years ago Bitcoin was only $200, today almost 100 times more, and in next 10 years only sky will be limit.

I had to check it, as I hadn't looked at the price since my post in this thread.  It's just below $9500 now, so I don't think OP's prediction was on the money--but it hasn't been exactly 48 hours since he made it yet.  There's still time for bitcoin to drop below $9k (though I'm certainly not hoping it will).  Heh heh.

Too early for victory to be declared here, but I'm keeping an eye on this thread.

It fell down to near $9300 area where we were all thinking of spotting it at and the OP was lucky to see it sooner than all of us that he's gone lucky with that down-indicating Doji that helped the pattern to continue to decline. I'm getting it as BTC is done now and should bounce back and continue the bullish pattern as the reverse of my thinking is not looking so good for BTC's overall situation.

the price has dropped to $9320

https://i.imgur.com/lZKC68p.png


It is possible that the price drops to $ 8000, but we have to see how the price will behave in September

Bakkt Clients Can Start Warehouse Deposits on Sept. 6 (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bakkt-clients-can-start-warehouse-deposits-on-sept-6)

it may be that in September the price rises considerably


advantage of Hold for many years is just sparing people headaches, the problem arises if the person makes the wrong investment, something like buying a shitcoin and holding for 5 years and after 5 years have big losses.

Bear trap.

In 48 hours...Bitcoin will be somewhere between 8000 and 11000.

I’m on a role...I want to keep my next prediction conservative.

Besides...50% of the time my predictions are right every time!

Close enough for me. A 20% drop that quickly (48 hours) was unlikely anyway since we're not in a parabolic run-up anymore.

We broke down from a pretty big consolidation so chances are pretty high that we're going lower. Anything below $9K and I'd say this was an uncommonly good prediction.

Well, to be honest, 10 experts (although I hate using this term when it comes to bitcoin) can't compete with 1 million amateurs making guesses.
I'm pretty sure if we held a contest like the one mic is running each day after a month there would be some 'amateurs' who would nail the end of the day price at least twice or three times. But I would put that more on luck than actual skillz.
No offence  ;D, since I know you nailed the price once or twice (?) in those contests


Another 48h?  ;D ;D
You got close but the last step was still miles away.

The simpliest conclusion is often the most right when it comes to markets because consensus moves the price.    Its hard to argue with this one but Im not rich enough or clever enough to throw the basketball over my shoulder as I walk away and expect to score.     Many times before its reached this point or similar and the smart thing was to go long, Ive even thought as much but generally not had the guts to do so especially.    Could have made some bucks if I expected such a strategy to play out a few months back.
 Instead I went short and made some pennies today, big whoop  :P   Going from the 50DMA would have worked better but still its not much of a move, main conclusion is sideways we move like a snake.


https://i.imgur.com/OU9vyFb.png

Lets be totally boring, weekly bars and 50 week MA.     Its yet done anything especially significant, if anything if it rises from here its bullish and probably worth even a leveraged long on the breakout from whats been some negative trend.   I hope I can keep that in mind

Yeah, and it looks like more prediction like this will begin to appear claiming that there are right. The drop is obvious because of the market situation. If we go lower than $9k again then it wil continue for a short period of time.

How about the next 48hrs, do we feel that it will dump again? We can't still predict exactly what will happen and I could say that predicted it right today but I don't feel that you can make it in the next 48hrs.

With all this market flows, it sounds like that bullish seems to be impossible to show up, not in the bearish season also. If the market will still be like this until the year-end, it'll be fined for me.

If someone had to claim they did predicted it then they have to explain how and why it did occur just like how OP explain it. It seems that OP was just right this time then i guess it's time for another 48hours prediction if everything would follow as predicted. :P

will it drop further below $8000? what's your advise on this... buy now or wait then?
your prediction can't be more conservative than that :P basic TA
either it bounces back and testing the last resistance ~$10.5k-$11k
or it drops a bit more and testing the next support line

lol  ;D :P  of course it's always 50%, either you're right or wrong :D

I think we have reached the bottom for now. 4-5 days of sideways action. Maybe recovers a few hundred but stays under 10K

NEXT PREDICTION: By September 5th...bitcoin will be between 8200-8600 range. I know it’s a big range. But that’s still a huge drop from here.

My feeling is that euphoria is over for now.  We will see 8k, 7k, 6, maybe 5k.  On our eventual way up to 60k

Again, I’ve been in this game since 2014 and I can SENSE the general mood out there. People are getting a bit scared. Good buying opportunities are coming soon.

When do you think we'll break $20,000?

According to this news https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-hovers-around-9-500-following-sudden-price-drop worldwide analysts come out giving numbers and statistics, but of course, they do it later of the facts, not before the facts, in this case OP made a very good prediction with a much higher success rate, and you say that you feel that such a movement will come, that is something respectable, because you rely on your intuition It is something like what Jesse Livermore had (Great and Famous Speculator of the 1800s), where in his books he recommends that there are times where intuition should be followed.

Of course this is something that differs in people, in my case I rely on his teachings and following Wyckoff's theory, and doing my personal analysis, observing the market at Days I get this:

https://i.imgur.com/buExlDf.png

Given my analysis if it falls from the range of 8,978 USD, I find it very difficult to return to the range of $ 6k or $ 7k, since there are many people defending their positions, we are in the beginning of the bullish trend, of course it is my way of seeing trading.

a lot of things can easily happen. price could fall down to $100 in the next 48 hours or it can shoot up to $100k. but we have no reason to believe they are possible as there is no indication of market moving in either direction.
so far entering the $9k levels as i said is what happened before and has been happening ever since $13k was reached and could not be broken.

ps. if you don't trade then why are you getting excited about this dip?

you mean after 2 months of sideways we will see 4-5 more days of the same thing? :)

I do not think what is happening and will happen in the near future a drop in the price of bitcoin. Now traditionally at the end of summer there is a relative calm in the markets and a drop in business activity. Therefore, regardless of how Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies behave, I expect that in the fourth quarter the cryptocurrency market will rise significantly. Specific figures can already be announced with the onset of October.

If I'm going to take my bullish hat off, I believe the OP might be slightly correct in that $9,000 will be tested again. But a "drop", and within "48 hours", no. Slow 14 day decline maybe.

I cant, Ive still no idea what China or most of Asia is thinking.    They could be going into Bitcoin because of a requirement due to rising capital controls for all I know.  China is hard to read because their news is fake, their directives are authoritative but its also not actually what happens, their culture or thinking is really not familar and its opaque because they dont have free press, etc.  The problem in Hong Kong could be ironic in leading people to greater BTC use, not sure.    
   Generally we have a rise in stupid government and interference in economies from politics, too much debt and instability but thats a decades long trend.    Sentiment is kinda simpler to see that but still cant say for the whole world, the west seems to be the minority of what drives BTC .

https://i.imgur.com/o5nbi70.png

This chart looks like the truck that drove over the side of the road on a steep hill and is now hanging.   However the chart can be marked in a number of ways but this was at least one trend lost.    I would like to short the recovery attempt rather then chase the previous fall expecting simple continuation.

It could be that way but I generally expect the market to upset everyone, all the carefully placed stops and orders get knocked over.   If thats the case we should be going down more then this, its too predictable to just repeat previous lows.

Quite evident, by the way the market at present is experiencing marginal fluctuation within specific price range. If I'm not wrong there is possibilities for the price correction to reach the $8500 range within a short period of time if the $9500 resistance level gets broken.

this is the internet, where the most important thing is being right. :P


in a broad sense, yes. the monthly uptrend is very healthy.

but shorter term, we just broke down from a 2-week long bear flag, so we should expect more downward pressure IMO. i wouldn't say i'm expecting it but $8k is plausible over the next couple weeks. it would be a hell of a buying opportunity!

I don't understand why you make predictions like this, you made a mistake, even though your title still claims otherwise. Currently there is no indication that $9000 can be so easy broken, but you're pushing it to the greater extreme by saying "maybe $5k".

Your predictions are based solely on your personal feelings and wrong assumptions such as "People are getting a bit scared", but from what, new economic crises maybe? So put your money in Bitcoin, and price will go up if a high enough demand is created.

What I see here is your personal wish for huge drop, for one purpose only, that you can increase your stock. I say before that I give you 10% chance for first prediction, and I give you only 5% for this one.

He's talking about the general sentiment of the BTC market.

When the market is bottoming out and experiencing capitulation, (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/capitulation.asp) there is usually extreme fear and pessimism in the air. Like when we were trading in the $3,000s and everyone began to expect the $1,000s. If people are only a bit scared, that suggests we're still in the middle stages of a downtrend and haven't experienced capitulation yet.

He will pussy out at $5k... He will get scared.
As you say all his predictions are based on feelings. Feelings get in the way of good trading decisions...

Hey OP, you could be right and it could also have been a coincidence, because I usually believe that what the market follows is speculation, and news, something must have happened that made it look that way because chart are more useful for trading activities, but remember that we also have some long term holders here in very large amount of bitcoin, which could drop drastically if someone drops his high holdings probably out of panic as a result of FUD news.

I would not completely rule out the fact that your chart worked, I think we will now better if bitcoin eventually drops low to that $8000 which I honestly don’t hope to see because I had bought at $9700 with a money that I urgently needed for something for my family upkeep.

Been HODLING BTC since $200. You are wrong.

I don't care about the 5th of September deal, I hope the price will go up like he says this weekend because I do have to cash out come this Monday (Sunday night, doesn't matter) and that means if the price goes up above 10k for even a bit than I can cash out at the peak and than if it falls, nothing I can do about it.

However, if it stays around these numbers or even go down than I am pretty much screwed, I do have some more money stashed away but I prefer not to use them, I would like to spend the money I earned instead of cashing out my investments however lately my country became more and more expensive because of high inflation rate and money I am making is becoming less and less worthy here and I am not entirely sure how I can survive if bitcoin doesn't go up, I may have to soon cash out all my money to keep surviving and after that I have no clue what I could do. Hence for the love of god please increase bitcoins price :D

48 hours have passed and we didnt had a "huge drop". Instead the price just touched the four digits area, providing a new buying opportunity.

These bear traps will become more common as time passes. And of course, there will be people screaming for 3k. Dont forget the CSW shills and their mathematical FUD.

This is part of the cycle. If you look at the standard bubble chart you'll notice there is a bear trap period before it goes up.

Give it some time. 48 hours was unrealistic to begin with. But the general idea ($8K range) is still possible, even likely. Higher time frames are clearly in a downtrend and we're only hovering a few hundred dollars above the July bottom. A general rule in trading is that if the market keeps hammering the same support (in this case the low $9,000s) over and over, it's likely to break.

Certainly, its possible, but the OP said 48 hours, its on the title.

Im holding to buy anything right now, because the market is undecided as where to go.

We dropped almost $1000 (10,300–>9,400) in that 48 hour period. I predicted it would hit 8K region and it didn’t quite get there in 48hours...but no one is disputing the “48 hour huge drop” part of the prediction. That part was right.

Its saturday and I dont want to always look for loopholes in your analysis, we have only seen $9700 but not over 10k in the last 24 hrs. The expected manipulation by price reduction was for more accumulation by whale before Bakkt launch. The predicted news is carefully managed.

disagree with your sentiment , while the market seems to not bullish at the moment
we saw thousands of coins sold across exchanges two days ago which could have caused a big drop in price
if traders started to sell and short , we saw support at 9400$ and then stabilization at 9500$ instead

https://i.imgur.com/L5is0gy.png

I think your estimation of 8200-8600 $ range is wrong too
we can only make educated guesses , but mine is that we will stay in 9300-9800$ range for the next week
with a higher chance to break 10k level than to drop below 9000$

This was a nice speculation and had he got this one right then, we would have made decisions based on his analysis as and when he would have provided them. It’s fair to say that the op is a bear trader who’s trying hard to convince us that $8k is coming, first it was 48 hours and now date has changed and it’ll continue to change. This post only proves one thing that no one can predict bitcoin prices, and one should always do their own research before buying or selling.

As a TA skeptic, I agree with this of course--but OP was right about a big drop; he even had the timeframe correct, he just didn't have the correct magnitude.  Can't say I'm totally impressed, but he wasn't very far off.

Hey OP, did you happen to make any money from your prediction?  For any technical analyst, that's what counts IMO.  If you'd shorted bitcoin above $10k you would have come out ahead in the past 72 hours.

If you analysis precisely you will see that a bitcoin is moving between the support and resistance for last 20 to 25 days.  I am sure this will not last long and either of the two things will happen soon that

- bitcoin will jump high to $13,000
- Or it may dump below $9,000

Looking at the huge drop and the first message it did already happened. Maybe the second one at 5th of September around $8k range may not happen we don't know that yet but the first one was about going under 10k and that already happened.

If nothing else this dude got the first drop right, maybe the second drop he could turn out to be wrong but at least that makes him 50% right about the drops he listed, if it happens that it makes him 100% back to back right on two occasions and I would totally mark this as important and keep checking on the OP and what he thinks market will do, there are rarely ever any person on this forum that gets the falls or ups correctly back to back giving proper timing on it as well, this is actually the first one I will see if it happens.

We cant still conclude yet even he would have that back to back good prediction but somehow its already a considerable reason for this guy to be followed.

I'm not a technical savvy person or do agree with it anytime but there are people who are really good on reading it up.Lets see if the 2nd prediction of price would hit up
on the right intensity.

any change in heart now that price is in the $10400s? the market's already regained all the losses from last week's dump.

it's painting a bullish engulfing on the weekly chart---though the candle won't close until next sunday so there's still time for bears to show their teeth. i'm still a bit skeptical we're reversing to a bull market already. after 2 months of trolling, we need more evidence. but i will say, this last move up was unexpectedly strong.

your problem is that you think falling to $9400 and $8000 are the same thing! well, they are not. in fact it doesn't get any more different than that.
falling to $9400 (although still big) was not abnormal. it was a price that we have been seeing for the past 1.5-2 months as i mentioned in this topic before. so basically we are still in the same range as we were for the past 2 months.
but falling to $8000 is another 15% lower than what we had established as the bottom of this sideways action.

nobody is disputing the price going "sideways", they are disputing your unreasonable expectations.

I think this type of posts creates manipulation like many other guys making youtube videos etc telling they are pro analists when they are only pseudo and sometimes not knowing nothing about math odds.

Only a big catastrophe can stop bitcoin, so, there is no reason to be afraid and not to HODL, trading is just a waste of time!

Predictions are only predictions its the same as get 10 times in a row BLACK in a casino roulette, the chances of RED are the same as BLACK!

The only thing that counts to me its production price and i have my formula to analyze if price is too high or too low:

1 BTC = MMC (Mining Machines Cost) x EC (Energy Cost) x TTM (Time To Mine)

In this formula i consider the EC the less relevant, anybody can have almost free energy, many people have free energy like the owners of electrical companys or big hidroeletric places, or big solar panel plants, etc, so, the most dificultty its buying machines like you can see now that its very hard to buy machines, almost of them SOLDOUT and need to pay advanced.., to finish another variable very important is TTM, we cant buy TIME and need to calculate it well with hashrate predictions that are never friendly, just to figured out the hashate since 2017 its 8x more!

If people does well that calculations bitcoin would never be manipulated and have so much volatility, that happens because people dont know how to apply this formula and runs to buy or sell after someone post something in the internet !

Bitcoin has a very funny character, and it is when everyone is going this way that bitcoin usually decide to go the other way, I remember that before that price drop as claimed by op that he predicted, many people had already talked about bitcoin reaching another milestone soon, but in the mist of that hype and discussion, bitcoin dropped its surprises by going low to the greatest surprise of people.

Right now, that we are having lots of people thinking the opposite direction again as bitcoin going that low, I am sure that the price would start skyrocketing and many people would still wonder why it is like this. The 5th of September is almost here, it is then I would really decide if this op is real of he is just doing some guessing work, fingers crossed tight.

If it continues to drop like this, it may reach 15k until 5th of September.
You know that predictions are hard. You should have left the first half-miss be what it is. Claiming that you were right and then making another prediction.. you know that you've lost quite some credibility. And, after all, it was for nothing.

I still have 2 more days.

That said...I’m not a trader. This post really was born out of my frustration of traders and analysts.

I watch these videos, and all they do is make vague ambiguous claims. “Bitcoin is about to make a move.”  They never say when, which direction, or how much.

Anyways. If I’m wrong, which I probably will be. Who cares. I’m a HODLER. Not a TRADR. And anyone who made any moves based on this post I feel for you. Because all I did is say “my gut says” xyz.

That said...I still think we’ll be at 8K by Sept 5th. But it’s looking a lot less likely.

Dr. Bitcoin I don't care you are not a fortune teller and your drop isn't happening. Like the thread  :-*

Last 2 days after the final of your prediction so what if it doesn’t happen?i thought this week the fall will continue but lucky Bitcointalk climb to $10,400 again

I’m afraid you are wrong this time and we I’ll never fall to $8k value again as the resistance to $9,400 is really strong and no signs of falling under

You are looking at a 2,000$ drop in a short time frame which in the conditions of what we have now looks impossible especially if Bitcoin just recovered from the 9,000$ range. As for the traders and analyst giving a vague or unclear prediction it's the best thing you can get since technical analyst isn't even made to give you a what price and when answer. TA is something you just based on how the marker will go but it cannot accurately predict a price nor when it will go up.

It is free to express your views or opinions on forum, but you set very clear time intervals when something needs to happen. You were partly right with drop which was close to $1000, but still to far from $8k range. Then you add 48 hours more in an attempt to make something happen at that time interval, but you fail again. Finally you set the speculation that huge drop will happen "8200-8600 by 11:59PM sept 5", which should happen in the next two days.

The problem is not that you speculate about the price, but that you are trying to guess something that is almost impossible.

I'm aint trying to defend OP but anyone can express out their speculation about on what would be the price but somehow we do see that OP is trying to make himself look

popular basing on his inputs and guesses.I read up the title about that "I was right" thing. September 5 is fast approaching and we aren't seeing bitcoin to go down for that short time.We might see 9k+ price if it tends to break those lower lows.

Yes, you are free to do your own speculation, you are free to claim you were right you are free to say almost anything around here.
The problems start when you claim you were right when in fact you weren't and the problems pile up when you start editing posts to make you look better.

OP nailed one thrid of his prediction, then raised the interval, got wrong even with the extended time, got wrong again on the second one, the third is pretty far off with 48 hours to go but the title is still "I was right" when in reality he got like one number out f 6 in the lottery...
If you want to be taken seriously you admit that you were wrong, if you just want attention over fake claims...you do what the OP does, but expect people to react the way they do.



Nothing! Is not like he has made a bet on this with anybody!
Some guy made a series of predictions on a forum and got them wrong, it happend hundreds of times but the Earth is still rotating around(or aflat) the Sun.

Ok. Sept 5th is not happening for 8K anymore.
But this 10,600 peak is yet ANOTHER lower high as we descend down from almost 14K.

I am fairly certain we will reach 8K soon. But at this point we are probably looking at another month or so.

To those saying “sub 10K bitcoin is over.” RUN!!! Those people are fools.

10,600 is just another lower high. And think our next move is back down to 10K and below.

sub $10k IS over.
but the thing is, in bitcoin market because the market itself is small and order books aren't that packed with buy or sell orders, a small manipulation and/or panic can pull the price lower than the strong support (being $10k). but since it is not real downtrend it won't be big or even last long. which is why it is said to be over.
basically at any time, fluctuations within 10% should be expected of bitcoin.

First of all yess thanks to op for sharing ...
Of course everyone shouldn't follow this kind prediction blindly not even from a well known analyst , but at least everyone can take some informations that you think it's matching with your data.

My personal opinion about the current market swing ... we are still in bearish and could possibly dropped to below $9,000 anytime soon before the end of this year.

The MA200 says it's at around $7,000 , i don't want this to be happened of course, everyone wanted a steady growth every years every months , but i don't want to be greedy either you can always just sit down and simply hold forevaaaa to avoid this complex market movement.

As I say before, your prediction is nothing more then repetition of identical events which we have seen several times in the past 3 months.

 - Jul 16, 2019 : $10,996.63 ->   Jul 17, 2019 : $9,163.13
 - Jul 23, 2019 :$10,346.75  ->   Jul 24, 2019 : $9,614.31
 - Aug 27, 2019 : $10,381.33 -> Aug 29, 2019 : $9,421.63

https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/historical-data/?start=20190604&end=20190904

What you are saying is that $9000 level will be broken, and that we will see maybe even $5000 in next few months. But you forget that we are approaching the time of year when Bitcoin generally has the best results, and that summer on the northern hemisphere is slowly ending ( more people will pay attention to crypto).

You can extend your prediction on one more month or maybe two, but it has nothing to do with anything relevant, it's just blind-guessing.

OP was right on his first prediction but he was right like on the last seconds of it, now he said 5th of September and we are still far away from it, maybe right on the nose at the 5th of September it will fall again, we can't know that, we have to wait and see how it does. Dude even said maybe price will go up in Sunday before it falls and it did exactly that (maybe went over a bit to Monday) so I think he is still doing fine.

In order for me to say that this dude has been proven wrong the price has to be over 9k by the 6th of September, if the fall doesn't happen than I will say he was wrong. There are plenty of people who got it right just once, we need people who get it right all the time (or mostly) and I hope OP is that person but if not well I have not put my money in anywhere he suggested so I will be fine.

Not a chance!! I’ve been in this game since 2014. I’ll agree sub 10K is over when we reach 30K. But we went from 20K down to 3K. Anyone who thinks sub 10K is over when bitcoin is only at 10.5K is INSANE. I BELIEVE we will see BTC at 6K again at some point. 

I still believe BTCs next move is down. But I think 8K by Dec 5th looks EXTREMELY unlikely now that we are at 10.5K.

We will hit 8K, but I think at this point we will see something like 10.5K —> 10K first.

One thing I feel strongly about is we are NOT mooning until we hit 8K and below first. This bump to 10.5K is a slight rise on the way down in the short term.

That was supposed to be September, right?


He was 1/3 right only on the first and other than that September 5th is just around the corner, and nowhere near what you usually call "far away".


That's some nice data, makes me think that is not a case about a wrong clock being right at least once a day and more a case of anticipating that this month it's going to rain at least once. Anyhow, I think this topic got far more attention than it deserved so it's off my watchlist. Of course, I'll come back for the "mea culpa" in case what I see now as impossible happens.

Well, if your prediction is right, we will hear you more, but it is Almost the predicted time and we are not anywhere close to 8k unfortunately you are clearly wrong if only you can hit it overnight, I suggest you carefully repredict and add more time range.

Why? So I can be like every other analyst who makes vague predictions. I’d rather predict and be wrong than be vague 100% of the time.

Bitcoin will hit 8K very soon. But not by sept 5th. I was wrong about the second prediction. See my new thread

It is a speculative market you know and I think if you Didn’t agree with the speculation of op, all you could just do is come up with your own speculation and let’s be the one to decide for our self internally and know which one to follow. No one is dull too here, whatever the op has said is based on his own opinion and his own research, which that is what his own research gave him, it is left to us to do our own research and then see what we will get.

The next 2 days is already here and you might never know what will happen. If I were you, I would not be too quick to condemn the analysis or judge the op, but would rather give him the benefit of doubt since it was just few days for us to know if the op is really a pro analyst or trader.

It is 5th of September not 5th of December, I think it would be quite possible to hit 8k by 5th of December, I am not saying on the clock but until than it could happen anywhere in between. However, we are literally left with just 24 hours to go and there seems to be no drop in sight. It could maybe drop again like it did last time which was as low as 9.4k as low as I remember but aside from that it won't drop under anything 9k for sure. Now I can't guarantee it, it could still happen but the odds of it is quite low right now if you ask me.

Of course, some crazy big whale could come up and sell thousands of bitcoin all at once somewhere and drop the price but that wouldn't matter to charts and would be something unexpected for all of us so I can easily say the second guess will be wrong.

In my younger days as a trader, I used to think like that. The truth is the market doesn't need to hit any price for a correction to be complete.

There are price corrections and time corrections. The second group are characterized by shallow, sideways, flag-like patterns. We've already retraced about 45% of 2019's gains. 50% or 61.8% would be typical, but maybe this is all we get.