Bitcoin Forum

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We can only speculate about this question, since Bitcoin is born at the beginning of a major economic crisis, there is no situation like this one that is approaching. There are very conflicting opinions about how a possible new recession will affect on Bitcoin, from those that it will be hit like everything else, and experience a big drop - to those who say Bitcoin will actually prosper and experience a great boom.

Thinking logically makes sense to believe that Bitcoin is much better then fiat, gold, real estate or something similar in a recession. But on the other hand, the only way to find out if this is the case is to see it with a real example. I would say it will be one big test for Bitcoin, perhaps the biggest so far.

I do not know why OP is posting same topic in different boards. 

You never know. Here is what I wrote in the other topic:

Bitcoin didn't even exist in the last recession...

Anyway, I think Bitcoin is holding somehow strong for now. Stock markets all over the globe are bleeding and national currencies are devaluating. I have faith that Bitcoin is suffer, but not as much as many developing countries

I don't think the recession had anything to do with bitcoin creation at that time. Bitcoin was created because of the need to have a personal control to role over your assets in my thinking. After the so called recession, it took bitcoin a whole lot of time to get to the value it is now...

Well, at least this is clear, look at his post history and his signature - because of more promotion, more visibility.


Some of the most powerful countries in the world are not happy with negative interest rates, in Germany for example politicians are looking for ban of such practice, and Trump is saying that he do not like to see such thing in US. Problem is that some investors invest around "$15 trillion in government bonds that offer negative interest rates.". Something like this is insane, but it's happening.


 

We don't know exactly what will happen because this will be the first time BTC will face a real and huge crisis
I can speak to myself only, and I pretend to keep my coins untouched, holding for a long term, I will not sell, but I'll not buy more coins, I'm satisfied with my ammount of cryptos at the moment
And in a time of crisis I think it's better to diversify, so I need to have more kind of investments

It doesn’t need to be an increase by that much, I’ll settle for maybe a 1000% increase. That will definitely do for me, I’m not greedy.

Let’s see what happens, I think fireworks will start after the halving.

Yes, I understand but I have never seen members (reputed/legit/loyal) to practice that, I have not practice it as well. You may find the forum rules informative for you. Here: Unofficial list of (official) Bitcointalk.org rules, guidelines, FAQ (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=703657.0)

Bitcoin has corrected more from its current year high than US stocks did, so from there I don't really understand the negative tone towards stocks. The same applies to gold where its chart looks way more bullish than Bitcoin's chart.

The very fact that stocks aren't bleeding shows that there is still enough capital (debt) circulating that is being utilized to buy up the dips. It also shows that there isn't much fear yet, otherwise stocks would end up bleeding hard.

Bitcoin didn't increase in value so much because of the last recession, it wasn't even created because of recession, as Satoshi started working on it years before it came. Early adopters didn't buy Bitcoin as a hedge against fiat economy, they were buying it either because they understood that its technology and its potential, or because they simply like to trade new things. So, if recession will come soon, the old data tells us absolutely nothing about what we can expect from Bitcoin's price.

There are stocks in another countries, not just in the US.
And they are bleeding. Developing countries stocks for example bleed a lot few weeks ago. And as national currencies also devaluated against USD, it is a double loss and Bitcoin didn't bleed as much

1000% is quite greedy when you take into consideration that most risk-on assets are being sold down significantly in order to accumulate fiat. Bitcoin is a risk-on asset too, and probably the worst one from the perspective of a neutral investor. In that regard, Bitcoin's price remaining flat during a recession is a pretty solid achievement too.

It's going to be an interesting stress test for Bitcoin would a recession unfolds, but I honestly prefer to not see a recession at all. Even if Bitcoin doesn't tank hard or goes up value, we're probably not going to be happy about those gains with how everything else is being sold down. Pension funds for example will suffer a lot. We will definitely feel that in our pockets.  :-X

The next thing that could happen to bitcoin is the increasing of the bitcoin price into the highest price ;D
People will always wait for that moment because they want to make a big profit again from bitcoin. But I don't think that there is any recession in bitcoin, bitcoin still in a good trend than the last year because the price can go up to $10k although right now, the price is down at below than $9k. But the situation will be changing soon, and the bitcoin price will increase higher like before.

If he said so then we should expect more positive outcome from Bitcoin when we are having economic recession across the world. I believe in Satoshi world more than any economic profession and from the historical data we have also see how bitcoin has been in positive trend from the inception till now. Those that desire to succeed in business and life are now study Bitcoin for diversification purposes and the more the economic get problem the better it is for Bitcoin and other coins.

It's had the luxury of being born and developing during an unbroken bull run. We have absolutely no way of knowing how it's going to take a proper meltdown. My guess is - not very well.

If we have another ten years of unbroken bull that's a different matter but it's not fully established and when everything is cratering you don't run towards the most extreme bet you can make.

Bitcoin had never saw a recession. First two years until 2011 Bitcoin financially did not even exist. Even today Bitcoin have little impact. Bitcoin slouch start having serious impact soon after next recession evolves in 2023.

I think we should see another huge bear run to decide on this, I mean just one (which was before bitcoin was created) doesn't show anything really useful, if we can have one more big world wide crisis than we can actually see how it affects bitcoin. Actually I would like to see couple more and not just one more.

If you take into consideration just one than we can say that bitcoin went up on 2017 December than it should have increased on 2018 December as well but it didn't, on contrary it fell down, hell in 2014 it went up in November but than it went down on December, so we have mostly bear runs on Decembers however the biggest increase was on December as well. That is why just one example of something doesn't mean it will be the same next time around as well.

That's what I've been curious to learn for a while. The last big recession birthed Bitcoin, (let's forgive your 9999x% as tongue in cheek eh?) but we have yet to see the effects of another deep crisis.

I personally feel that it's not going to be the silver lining a lot of analysts are touting.

I lived through the 1997 Asian one. And I know that when normal people are hit hard by the economy, job security is the first to get affected. And when you lose your source of income, the first thing that happens is your savings get eaten up. Maybe for the upper middle class, that's when capital goes into alternatives like Bitcoin, sure. Stock players look at and consider Bitcoin, sure.

But it's hard to see regular people buying up Bitcoin when they're struggling to put food on the table.

During the past recession it wasn't that familiar, and some say it hasn't existed by that time. Even by the time of existence it doesn't had any value and investments were made by people on complete fluke. Even it was there during the time of recession it could've never affected bitcoin much. Same will be the scenario this time too. The recession is not gonna impact the growth of bitcoin in any direction.

Generally speaking BTC should rise during the crises.

When economy recovers, we know that it would definitely affect things around it positively, and it was not only bitcoin that it affected which I dint know if it actually had any effect on bitcoin because of the year bitcoin was created, but let's say that economy was already getting better now and people could easily afford whatever they want to buy then, it also affected lots of things around also.

The reason why bitcoin grew that high was because it has some sort of cheap prices which people could afford to buy easily, but as bitcoin value has gone this high, it would be a little bit hard for people to accumulate it as much as they do when it was still extremely cheap, so even if this recession will have any effect on it would never be as much as it does that season.

Even if we have another decade of bull mania, that still doesn't say anything about Bitcoin being a safe haven asset. What we see happen is that people front run Bitcoin's potential, and as long as that is the case, nothing will change.

In order to truly understand where Bitcoin stands, it needs to be much further in terms of adoption. It could stay a speculative asset for ever and remain in people's basket of risk on assets until it's time to convert to fiat or gold.

There isn't really any solid proof that we are entering a recession. The only thing I can think of right now is that there might be large defaults on the auto industry. Auto sales are down because people are just driving their current cars longer and cars just gotten too expensive, especially large trucks and SUVs.

So its possible for a large bubble to burst in the auto default loans but it won't be like the 2008 housing crisis. When large amount of people default on their loans it won't cause banks to go into liquidation. Cars are cheaper than houses and they can be easily relocated and resold elsewhere like Canada.

There are too many people who are selling all their stocks and shorting the stock market because they think a recession is happening soon, but they have been saying that since 2010 pretty much and so far no recession.

mhmm. bitcoiners have no idea what they're in for when the global economy finally shits the bed. instead of cheering on the next crash (because they think equity investors will turn to bitcoin) they should probably hope for more status quo/money printing. the more time bitcoin has to grow and mature, the better. in a recession it's an incredibly risky bet.

since bitcoin has always been acting independently and have never been taking effects on anything that is going on in the rest of the world (at least no major impact) we can say with certainty that it will continue to do so during a recession. however the problem is that a recession is a huge deal impacting everything. so the reaction of bitcoin is hard to predict.
in my opinion there will either be a gigantic rise or no change at all. but i seriously doubt if bitcoin ever follows other assets down during the recession. that's just not possible.

We have seen another recession recently and people do not see that clearly. I know it wasn't like 2008 and it wasn't that small however that doesn't mean it didn't happen, it did happen and we did had lived with it just last December (a bit on November too). American stocks fell ridiculously low and lost about 30% in total at SP 500 as well however bitcoin didn't do much, hell it even fell as well, which means recession is not really equals to bitcoin going up.

It could mean that if it happens in a global scale like 2008 but remember that not all recessions are that bad, some are smaller and some are bigger and if its a big one than we can see a bit increase. Plus, we are talking about an increase from the start to 10 years of course it would increase but that doesn't mean it was due to recession, it was due to time passing by and more people getting into bitcoin. I don't think we will have that much increase in people anymore.