Bitcoin Forum

Should this not be in the speculation section of the forum as its more about prediction of what the value of bitcoin would be other than the present.

I really appreciate the thought process before the suggestions are being made because its backed by some serious research that can even be verified which is something that is not common on the forum except individuals who create threads based on their feelings on what they exact the price to be. For me, I think there is really a strong resistance at the moment waiting for a push in the up direction.

Bit difficult to predict this trade, btc have strong support at 9K USD, and also have Head and sholders pattern. Until now there are three retest and two retest became fail. In this situation i will look at news, and issue for two weeks ahead. If there's no significant news, i will try to look at AO indicator to make final decide

It seems that it broke up rather than down. This could be a sign of market recovering from sharp drop , this big drop could have been just a another squeeze, this time long squeeze and now the market is going where it wanted in the first place. I dont think that 13k is a good upper limit, if btc goes to that level we very well be looking at much higher levels.

This time the price has gained good stability without leaving the price go low to $9500 support. Upon the same there is more chances for continued rise in the price of bitcoin rather than falling back. This time we can expect the price to stagger within the $13000 range for a long term as the breakout of $13k is the next big step forward to reach a new ath.

The chart looks interesting, it is either a hit or a miss at this point. Who knows maybe we can cross 13K  but the high support for bitcoin at 9K USD would be the main  challenge at this point. The times ahead looks good for margin traders.

I think a few more false breakouts first, in which case sell order just below 9900 to take profit at 5%. We're going to see a lot more rides like this, and why not. Rationally seems to say we're running out of cycles in this sideways move, but even if the breakout is upwards towards 13k, we've got to see a fall to close to 9k one more time before that happens.

But hey, this is my non-rational prediction;) Good luck!

It surprised me a bit with how fast we have gone up. If we look at the decending triangle on the daily, you'll see that we're pretty close to the upper side of the descending resistance around $11,000. If that's not enough, we also have an ascending trendline (one that we currently trade below) that now will be forming resistance. In other words, double resistance. Looks like a solid short to me.

I will definitely place a 2x leverage short around the $11,000 level and from there look at how the market behaves. If we respect the current market structure I'll keep the short, but if we break out of the triange and close two consecutive daily candles above it, then I'll be looking for a long. Interesting times. :)

I don't see much difference in the trend-- people are overly optimistic about the price going back up above $10k, which is very much in line with the overall bearish formation that's getting nicely shaped with more confirming touches.

I consider a sub $9000 visit more likely this month than anything else. Major indicators of fresh capital flowing into crypto are the stablecoins, and none of them saw an increase of significance.

It's largely the same capital that's being traded back and forth, so from there you can't really expect the price to surge beyond its current resistance levels. No new capital entering means no new demand.

i am surprised with the things that some people see on the charts! it is as if they first choose a price they want (whether higher or lower) then forcefully draw lines that don't make any sense on the charts to get to those prices and then make their conclusion based on that!

for example here, the lines OP draws don't make any sense at all. specially the red ones. instead of choosing the bottom line correctly (a more horizontal one) he is drawing a completely random line just because he wants to create that downward channel with the upper line which is also chosen wrong. instead of choosing the tops he is forcing a slope that he likes.
if the lines were drawn more correctly they would actually point to $9000 not $7000! and mostly point to a converging line too as the lows are rising.

Op, were do you get all this your analysis from because you opened this thread yesterday when bitcoin has already moved over $10,600 and you were analyzing $9000. Maybe you make this analysis about three days ago and you just post it yesterday without checking what has happened again. The breakout at $9,750 at on Monday was in favor of bull and not bear.

If you look at the chart, there's an additional trade signal: a buy-stop order above $10,500. The take-profit for that position is at $13,500 so the OP is obviously expecting more upside from here.

I disagree myself, at least until I see a couple technical changes on the chart. We're right at resistance and riding high on the 4H to 12H indicators. Bears are likely to step in soon. Then we'll see where support is.

No I'm still watching because it feels like a repeat to me, still.   Amazing we bounce around more in this box recently then a game on a Squash court.

https://i.imgur.com/0m1nA6hg.png (https://i.imgur.com/0m1nA6h.png)

I drew this fresh just quick to see how it might seem from a quick look but I think its still justified on old charts even.   If we're closing above the 50 day average on daily bars then very possibly I'm wrong but seems we are not yet proven to 'break out' in a normal way.
   Actually reminds me of this time last year when we had some similar action continually bouncing except that was around the 6500 area upwards.   People said it couldnt be lower then that because of mining costs or something, this repeated many times with no resolution and it also seems like that now.

https://i.imgur.com/Ce8hcd1.png
A clip of the initial peak and fall, it was the sharpest and quickest.   What I'm referring to when I say its a repeat, the recent low is around the bottom of the pin here (far right) and the top prices today are the first horizontal band or about 23% of price range - weak!
   So all this time later and we are struggling to achieve what occured in 1 day on July 2nd.

VanEck, SolidX Bitcoin ETF launching at Sept. 5 and Bakkt is coming to end of this month. I think we going UP  ;D it's my opinion

Only the news may not affect the price much, maybe short-lived pumps.
But it's september. People are back to work. Mining difficulty rises. Halving is getting closer.

Let's see if the price will meet the expectations or some whales will decide it's best to dump.

except that by that time the reversal had not happened yet. the only thing that had happened was price reaching the bottom. then the manipulation came and the panic sells continued the down trend.
now the reversal has already happened months ago and we have been in an uptrend instead. this here is more like 2017 when price was at price had just fallen from $7000 to $6000 and people were drawing lines pointing to back to $1200 and then $10k was broken instead.

According to the last movement, BTC is in a descending triangle which is a bearish formation. And the probability of "down" is higher that the "up". the top of this formation is 11k USD and after the down break out the target is 5k.

I want to see the price break out and start a rally to the higher price ;D

But I don't have any clue about what will happen later because I see that it seems, bitcoin price is stable at a price now, and it seems, it's more difficult to predict. The price itself is not going to down or up too higher and it always back to the price before if there is a movement at the market. It makes me a little bit confusing to determine what will I do, and that makes me wait for a while to see how it goes.

This is one of the hardest times to be a leverage trader right now. I mean it could go any direction and we have no idea what it will do.

I do not deal with charts because I have seen them fail too many times but public sentiment is never wrong, if people are thinking that bitcoin will go up and hyped about it then the price will go up, however if they think bitcoin will be going down and afraid it will go down.

It is mostly because there is no regulation in bitcoin so when people are afraid they sell which directly causes it to go down or when people are hyped they buy and it directly goes up. Right now people look tired of the same price once again, it has been around the same price for a long time and people are about to say "it is enough of the same price, I am going out until something fun starts to happen".

Hence the old expression "sometimes no trade is the best trade." This past couple months, traders have been getting chopped to pieces by this ranging, whipsawing market. They keep trying to position themselves for the next big move, but every swing (in both directions) keeps failing. Only those who knew to trade it like a range (or to stop trading it entirely) have done well. Everyone else is bleeding money.

There's no shame in waiting for a confirmed breakout and buying the dip!

https://i.imgur.com/yUeyLIY.png

I think that all this while that bitcoin has been having series of correction, it is the high time for it to have that major breakout that we have been wanting and if we can just wait a little bit more, I am sure that that breakout will happen within the next 2 weeks, so for long term holder, they can still continue to wait for the value to break out to $13k, and then can decide if they want to sell then or keep waiting, but for shorter term trader, I think your suggestion is still better as we are all only predicting and even with your chart that is creating strong signal for breakout, we still have to be careful not to be misled.

In a situation like this, I just split my investment, I could take one out now and the leave the rest to risk it and see of there would be a major breakout.

right now most of the investors are undecided and are waiting for either two things:
- a drop like what we had recently to buy cheaper coins which is why price is not going to go any lower than that and it gets increasingly difficult to push it down too because of the buy support that shaped there.
- the breakout to jump on board which is why we always see a FOMO buy right after a sideways action in bitcoin. and i guess the breakout will be to $15k instead of being so low at $13k.

The market doesn't seem ready for breakout. Looks like bears are still defending the overhead trend line from the $13,000s. If the daily candle closes as a failure like this, we should expect to bounce back downwards into the lower end of the range:

https://i.imgur.com/glxWloP.png

Every time is the hardest time for leverage trading. Since I`m here traders have the same dilemmas. With this kind of questions, will it be 7k or 13k, it`s like gambling, trader have 50% chances to be right. Both are possible, we all know that, to play smart in this times means to keep your bitcoins safe, and if the price drops to buy some, I`m doing that. I`m not sure about 13k, but I believe that we will go over 11k before the new year. It`s definitely not the time for shorting, price can bounce back anytime, buy if it dips and be patient, if you don`t know what else to do.

Seems like 13k even briefly was more likely of the two however negative I might think it would be after breaking a trend or failing in some way, it seems to drift back up which gives 13k constant credence

However we get a blip down to end the working week:

https://i.imgur.com/YHHiDUK.png

So I zoomed in as I presume this is the relevance till Monday.   Yellow is 8 day and also some trend so I think thats the most likely target we go for.   2 day average on the blue line, if we get past I guess it was just a stop loss check, cash in by some seller who then immediately buys back at a nicer price/profit.   Though I never think its one guy, its easier to characterize in that way.

bitcoin will drop to level 7000 soon

Nahhh sideways forevah and then it goes booooom to da moon. Been here before... $7k only in a whale flashdump...

It was to be expected with how low the volumes were today. We got an uptick on low volume that just wasn't going to hold, where the weekend made it even less likely for the price to break out.

CME closed the day in the red after a pretty firm rejection at $11.1k, which I think is healthier in case we do see the price bounce back up tomorrow. Most of the gaps we have had have always filled quite consistently.

Currently we're still being supported by the 21EMA on daily chart, but I'm not sure how long the price can be held above $10k-- one more sub $10k dive might lead to a massive dump where we take out the $9k mark.

All these months of sideways trading made me rethink my past predictions that this bull run will be short and might end before the next halvening. Now it looks like things will take much longer time, with multiple periods of explosive growth and sideways trading during next 1.5-2 years. $13k will be conquered sooner or later, but it won't be the only wall of this bull cycle.

Fudsters says the different things. If they spread fud and tells bad news, its the opposite that actually happen. Maybe its because of the disappointments that keeps going on that I only notice that same pattern but I think those fudsters aims to confuse traders who waits fundamental news.

It looks like that we are still in side way movement between 9500 K-10600 K
I don't believe much in dump to 7K.There is very strong support at 9K
Only one problem is lack of liquidity .Because of that quality alts are going down to btc
Benefit is that all that shitcoins will die forever and ever

Resistance is pretty much up ahead and I think we are not even piercing up right now and we are stock to $9000 and $10,000 USD, for now, it seems that it is ok to just buy when the price reaches a certain level from $10,000 and $11,000 it is a good small profit for now, but for me it is good to just hold it and wait for the big leap, well there isn't much for now but there is good take in being patient in every bull run we take, but the big leap may take a fall in the year 2022 and right now lets just savor a small profit for now.

See one of them, you guys have come here again, but one thing I like about you people's prediction is that anytime there is a wish of downfall from your group, which is when bitcoin will start surging high.

Before April when bitcoin had not turned to $5000, many people were speculating that bitcoin would go down to $2000, we waited for their prediction, but rather than their prediction coming through, bitcoin started increasing in price till it crossed over to $13800 without ever touching that value, and now we are having someone predicting a huge dump from this high amount to $7000, it sounds quite so crazy to me and unreasonable prediction because bitcoin has already passed that stage of dumping that low, if there is going to even be a correction right now, highest we can dump is by  $1500.

Maybe I'm missing something or being an idiot, but bitcoin hasn't broken out either way (yet).  It's been trading in a range ever since breaking out of its last range when it was hovering around $3500 for many months. 

I'm not a believer in technical analysis, but in this case I tend to agree with OP's analysis and also his advice with the stop-loss orders and whatnot.  The past market behavior of bitcoin makes me think that it's going to pop over $13k or fall below $8k--one of those things is probably going to happen.  And investors looks like they're pretty bullish right now, so my best guess is that we're headed higher rather than lower, but who knows.  Whatever happens, I doubt that bitcoin is going to fall as low as $7k.  If it does that, we're in trouble (but it'd be a damn good buying opportunity).

Lol.  They're not dying, although a lot of them are stagnating right now.

It depends on what your definition of shitcoins is, but unfortunately they will not miraculously vanish from the crypto sphere. The thing with altcoins not showing any signs of life (relatively speaking) is that it forms a solid setup for a contrarian move.

The most intense bull runs happen when people don't expect it. Currently people are prepared for it with loaded bags (just like they did with Bitcoin last year), which only means that there is selling pressure that will curb any attempt of an altcoin season to initiate. Once people unload these bags, things will start to get interesting.

Smart money has a lot of patience and it might lead to another 6-12 months of boring market activity. Dumb money on the other hand doesn't have any patience and I'm of believe that they are on the verge of dumping.

Technical analysis can explain how BTC prices move 80% of the time, but you are not a believer?
Just see what some good posters post here, 80% of the time it's correct and the price touches the resistance, or the support.
Next support is around $9300, price is probably heading to that price soon or later.
Not good to buy right now, will probably buy more BTC around $9500 (September or October).

It is a good time if you ultimately believe Bitcoin will go higher.
- If it breaks up you miss the train.
- If it breaks down you buy all the way down the dip. (Get a dollar cost average)
Trying to optimize your buy point is not a good strategy imo.

it depends on your goals. for those who are most concerned about losing coins or "missing the train", you're right---waiting around for an optimal entry that may not come isn't worth the risk. but for those primarily concerned about USD profits and capital preservation, optimizing entry and minimizes losses is paramount. if all you care about is USD, there's always more opportunities to be had.

no one can guess the price movements of cryptocurrency, if your analysis is correct then it is just luck, indeed everyone is free to determine the bitcoin price movement but you should know that bitcoin price movements depend on demand, the higher the demand, the bitcoin price can be expensive , even a few more months will happen halving bitcoin that can make prices rise so rapidly.

absolutely !!this must be transferred to Speculation section that you ca find here

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=57.0

Because this is for bitcoin topic only that not speculative

---

But atleast there’s a big  advantage if the TA is good to speculate the price soon.

And the given value of $7k - $13k is a good number to look at and would be also a good basis if you wanted to sell and wait for the fall,or just stay ho,ding till the price goes up

Some people are spreading FUD because they want to buy cheap, the price would fall with what they are doing and when it falls they will buy a lot of bitcoin (and even make more money by shorting at the same time as well) and than with the money they make they will start FOMO and that will result with them making a ton of money. That is why there will be a lot of people who will tell you that bitcoin will fall, believe me people who say bitcoin will fall have a profit in it, either they are going to buy or they are stock market brokers or they are gold bugs, basically anything that would profit from bitcoin falling, they are doing it not because they actually believe bitcoin will fall but because they are doing it to make more profits from bitcoin going down.

I do not think that if we head back to $9500 it will be any better in the short term. The more often the horizontal support gets tested, the more likely it is that we will penetrate it and visit much lower levels.

If you look at the descending triangle of last year, the current one looks kinda similar except for the fact that we haven't had a test of a major moving average on the weekly yet.

The 21EMA on the weekly is currently touching ~$9100 which will be what I am focusing on. A close below that on the daily, preferably on the weekly, is going to be the confirmation for me that we're done rallying.

I'm sorry but not just to put all things into guessing cause this a big money and not even we rely on luck, most importantly we did something to move our funds bigger. Experts make more money as they know more about crypto movement (to its near possible change).
Speculating without some basis of it is just be nowhere and nothing to expect for in reality. Having those charts will help to formulate good speculation but of course, isn't a 100% reliable, only we are near to possible.

There are many issues with this trading strategy. The main one is that everybody is looking at this triangle and when this happens, usually there are head-fakes. Another issue is that the triangles are not clear, depending on which exchange you use and which angle you draw the triangles at you will get different results.

Regarding your strategy of shorting the break of $9000, the issue is that it might go to $8999 and reverse and you will be in an underwater short. Another issue is that your $10500 buy-stop already triggered and its already at a loss since we hit $10250 already and we might go lower.

I think its best to wait for a break of $9000 and if it heads into the $7500 area of lower, wait until it retests the $9000 again and just short it then instead.

We are bullish for the weekend is how I would characterize this market, over a period greater then the next few days I would still look to a confined price and how will markets resolve that but the days over a weekend are without main markets and I think more bullish.
   I believe we resolve the larger picture when we dont have futures involvement and larger company players with volume who will trade on Monday and week days more heavily.


Stay above these two averages and we're good for the moment and generally in a positive area, any negatives would just be in speculation comparatively.

Very interesting price action here. Buyers just rejected an attempt to dump below $10K and are now threatening to re-test the downtrend line again! If bulls can break $10,460 with authority, it will be our first signal that this correction is ending.

Time for breakout or just more trolling? Stay tuned:

https://i.imgur.com/hksT1B0.png

Breakout...  ;D

These multi-month corrections always teach me never to call it until it finally happens. :)

I'm convinced BTC will break to the upside in the next couple weeks. I also know there's still room for trolling.

I believe $13k is still possible for this year as we have already witnessed the Bitcoin sudden domination of the market for just few months of up to 70% therefore with the 4 months left before next year we could expect some more pull up so lets stay positive.

I think when it comes to bitcoin you can never be sure and you should always be prepared for a big increase at all times. I know we had a year when bitcoin price didn't moved up and moved mostly down the whole year so many of the new people remember that as bitcoin but know that no matter how much bitcoin drops it always goes back up and increases even more, I feel like at this point all those people saying 100k or one million is not even wrong, it just won't happen right now, it will probably go to a high price than down and up and down and reach all those prices eventually with that method.

Maybe this run will stop here, maybe it will stop at 50k, nobody can know but one thing is certain that no matter where we stop now, it will be even higher than that in the future so there is no bad place to buy bitcoin.

Glad i am on positive people, i mean what i see from bitcoin really make improvement although get dumped. And then it is only need support from bitcoin users. I think in next year, although $20000 is still possible. Just hope there are no hacked news or bitcoin banned from a big country.

We already breached that price this year, so it's no surprised that we can do that again. Also there's Bakkt effect, so we will have to cling to hope that it's possible that we can go to $13k-$16k at the end of the year because of this positive news. So far the price is really trading sideways, no clear path but after Sept 26 we may see a new divergence, whether Bakkt is a boost or not. (I hope so).

When you see the price going up from $3k to $10k then you may want to either get in because you think it will go up even more or you may want to not get in because it already made a lot of profits for many people and has been idle for months which means the train has already left the station.

There is really no point of insisting on the fact that bitcoin  "will be higher" when people who bought from $20k still hasn't made any profits since it started to drop, yes maybe in 5 years we will laugh at these prices but expecting someone to wait 5 years for a profit is not a good idea, people should see some sort of life in bitcoin before they can actually go all in, without seeing any profits they will see it as a sinkhole that will eat up your investments.