Bitcoin Forum

Hello all,


I just found this website https://bitcoinblockhalf.com/ with some interesting data:

Today, the halving countdown is 256 days.


1800 BTC per day is a lot. In 256 days we will have only 900 new btc per day, which is quite interesting and will certainly impact the price.
It is hard to price in a halving before it occurs, because it affects the supply of bitcoin on exchanges.

Inflation rate is still very low. Global inflation rate is about 3,58 (https://www.statista.com/statistics/256598/global-inflation-rate-compared-to-previous-year/)
Next year we will be about 1/2 global inflation rate. Lets see how we go.

There is a price chart, with line breaks on halving days. There is interesting fact that on halving days, bitcoin price does usually not surpass it previous all time highs, but I do hope bitcoin will change its history with halving in 2020 because it seems bitcoin has stronger communities globally and bigger demands as well as blockchain and crypto currencies have not yet strange terms for people.

1000000 BTC are traded every day. A change of only 900 is not going to have any impact. The halving does not lower the supply. The supply is always increasing.

It is interesting to note that while there is a common myth among Bitcoiners that a halving causes an increase in price, Litecoiners have a myth that says that a halving causes a decrease in price!

This doesn't mean that 1000000 individually BTC are traded everyday. A single BTC can be traded one thousand times a day.
A sell to B, that Sell to C, that sells to D, and so on, the same btc.

Miners need to sell their btc to pay for their costs. They are a big supplier. All past halvings affected the price a lot (as the graphic posts by tbct_mt2).

About LTC, you cannot compare any altcoin with bitcoin. Because altcoins are simple not bitcoin. They are used to by smart people to accumulate btc, and for that only.

Oh well when I see this chart I think that BTC has a chance to get over 100k after halving, but on the other side I feel like it will remain below 15k for years.. Let's see what it will do, waiting excitedly.

This chart has given me a lot thought of since I saw it some days ago. My challenge is the possibilities of ever getting so high price at the speculated time.. It is mere speculation with no factor to support it, scarcity, adoption rate and block reward are sometimes mentioned and it doesnt look good enough for $100k price IMO.

It's getting exciting to those that have endured all of the painful days of the bearish market and can still hold bitcoin on their stash. Numbers don't lie and to those who have witnessed all the past 3 halving can figure it out that the same effect would come after the next halving next year or someone who are relying to the charts.

But it wouldn't be on instant. The halving for Litecoin didn't do that much but I look forward for bitcoin's halving as it shouldn't be compared to alts because it's greater and incomparable.

What's always been interesting for me, isn't so much how many coins we're getting a day, but how much dollar value is being generated every ten minutes (on average).

It's going to be really interesting for me to see, assuming price doesn't change much in  the next 8.5 months, how the market (and not the network) copes with generating $1,250,000 every 10 minutes to just over $625,000.

OR shall we use a better perspective of $18 mill a day to just $9 million.

History can repeates itself, and we all can patiently wait for it with next halving next year to enjoy coming bull run of Bitcoin back to its all time high first, then taking off to the Moon in late of 2020 or early four months of 2021.
Halving effects, if occur, can only occur and maintain over months for Bitcoin. For altcoins, if halving effect occur, it will not last for too long, because basically price of altcoins in general seriously affected by bitcoin price. Hence, when halving effects coole down after weeks, and bitcoin forces altcoins falling, altcoins will fall despite of how powerful halving effects are. That is exactly what we saw with Litecoin last 8 months.

I think it's only approximate value since hashrate always fluctuates. Who knows there will be new generation ASIC machines produced shortly.

The halvening indeed will be interesting since if the price cannot rise to cope with mining profitability as @buwaytress said, we will see a significant temporary drop in hashrate. So, how the market - miners react to the new "equilibrium" will be something worth to see.

The only thing that pumps the bitcoin price up is the demand for bitcoins.
Halving does reduce the supply a little bit,but without demand for btc,the bitcoin price will go down after the halving.During all those years,the bitcoin price went up only because bitcoin got more popular and more people adopted it.The 2017 ATH was due to the anticipation of bitcoin futures trading,not because of the 2016 halving.

Hashrate doesn't matter.

If they produce new asic with better hashrate or if miners leave, the difficult will be adjusted accordingly to keep 10minutes average block mining. It will be 256 (now 255) days, or very close to that.

This is the primary site which been commonly visited by those people who do really like to know the countdown on when would be the next halving.
It do really shows off those all information about block rewards and what would be halved on that particular days.Usually price do rally up when this event do come
because supply would really be cut in half and come to think if the demand would continue to rise up in next year and on upcoming years to come then expect price of btc will soar
up due to that common reason.Its just a simple law of supply and demand.

Interesting, let's do the experiment here:
255 days = ( 255 * 24 * 60 ) / 10 = 36,720 blocks

If we count back 36,720 blocks from today, we should go back 255 days in time, right?

Latest block hash: 593,203 (https://www.blockchain.com/btc/block-height/593203) (2019-09-04 12:20:28)
Thus, the -255 days block hash should be 593,203 - 36,720 = 556,483 (https://www.blockchain.com/btc/block-height/556483) (2019-01-01 04:27:16)

What's the actual time difference?
246 days, 7 hours, 53 minutes and 12 seconds (https://www.timeanddate.com/date/durationresult.html?d1=1&m1=1&y1=2019&d2=4&m2=9&y2=2019&h1=04&i1=27&s1=16&h2=12&i2=20&s2=28)

Am I correct?

Considering that Bitcoin miners will earn 50% less in 2020, we can conclude that for many such a business will become unprofitable, there will only be large investors who have cheap or completely free electricity. Immediately after halving, you can expect the sale of used equipment and lower prices in stores. So those who plan to enter mining now should wait for 2020 and buy equipment profitably.

Hashrates relate to difficulty, and difficutly in turn relates to mining profits and price of bitcoin. When difficulty hits peaks, price will fall, then weak miners capitulate. After weeks or months, when there are only strong miners stay, price will rise again, then difficulty rises too. That cycle repeates over and over again in history of bitcoin. For all reasons above, I disagreed with your statement.

Bitcoin halving does Not make difference!
Until  the BTC will have more use and utility.

What really matter is If stable Currency is used to push Up BTC price.



Halving really Not make BTC Go up

It actually can influence it more than a few days.
https://btc.com/stats/diff

There adjustments ago the difficulty spiked by 10%, that alone brought the halving closer by a 1 day and 7 hours alone.
If we consider an average increase of only 3% it would bring the date closer by ten days.

If the price spikes again and we see people buying gear like mad again we could actually see the halving a whole month earlier.


Hm......this reminds me of something....


So it's not 1 million BTC, is actually 10 000, and 900 means 9% of it.  ;D ;D ;D

This is going to be one of those days where it is do or die for bitcoin, it is not gonna die obviously but depending on how we react to this date we may actually end up with being super mainstream and quite common. I am not joking, thanks to this halving the amount of bitcoins sold will be going down significantly everyday, we are talking about 900 bitcoins less every single day and that means a lot, it will help with volatility as well, we go up but we go down because when we go up it is our own efforts however when we stop then miners destroy all we worked for.

I am hoping with this we will get the adoption rate high as well, that way we can get more people into bitcoin and the price will go up and we will be able to use it anywhere we want like back in 2017 peak era.

We will still get to that age in time, where people would be more used to bitcoin for utility and not for assets purpose as most of them do see it now, but because people use bitcoin more for investment, the halving might really have an effect on bitcoin in the sense that many people already have this in their mindset, so when bitcoin halving is nearing, you will find most people trying to but bitcoin at that time, and you now that the formula for an increased value is demand.

There will be more demands of bitcoin, thereby creating a surge in the price, and then you see many people boasting that it was the halving and not knowing that the increase was as a result of little fomo that the halving created that time, which made way for lots of demands of bitcoin then.

That is also the reason why Bitcoin has grown so strongly over the years. because many investors saw the potential of Bitcoin and started buying from the very beginning.
Halving will take place every 4 years and we can stop the inflation rate by buying Bitcoin and holding it for 12 years. Certainly our portfolio will increase greatly because of the growing demand for Bitcoin.

You are speculating. You don't really know if they are a big supplier or not. Also, if miners "are a big supplier", then you would expect the price to be falling all the time as they continue to sell new bitcoins every day.


There is no correlation. There was a steep rise in price a few months after the first halving, but not after the second halving (unless you include the rise that followed more than a year later. Furthermore, there have been several steep increases that do not coincide with any halving.


Litecoin works just like Bitcoin. There would be no reason for an opposite behavior. Litecoiners say that the price falls because miners must sell extra litecoins to cover loses after the halving.

Because that's exactly how it works. Supply and demand. Google for it and you will understand. The mmore supply, the lower the price. That's science, not speculation.

https://www.mindtools.com/media/Diagrams/Suppy_and_Demand_Curves_3.jpg

Also do you expect all miners to be holders, or just suppliers of BTC to exchanges? They mine and sell most of them, because they need to pay energy costs.

Of course we must consider all past data to make the analysis. Reduction in supply will affect the price forever. Do you think that if a halving never occurred, and we had 50 new BTC every 10minuyes, the price would be the same? Look at the graphic up there again.

you are the one speculating now ;)

Of course hashrate matters. It's everything. If suddenly a large percentage of the hashrate is gone, it means that it will take the miners that are still actively mining much longer to find blocks.

If it takes longer for miners to find blocks, it takes longer for the difficulty to be adjusted so that the block times become normal again. It then also leads to much lower transaction throughout for obvious reasons.

In the same way, more hashrate being added means faster block times and therefore faster difficulty adjustments. I find it a bit disturbing to see how easily you wipe the hashrate aspect off the table.

And bitcoiners will say the same if the price doesn't spike after the halving.
Everyone is trying to find a culprit to accuse or their assumptions going wrong.

What they forget to say is that if before the halving miners would have 14 400 coins worth 1.4 mils to sell, now they have 4200 worth exactly $471,998 as the time I post this. Adding up the enormous drop in hashrate which means drop in electricity ills, fewer coins to sell to cover expenses becomes pretty clear that is not the miner's fault.

And about the opposite behaviour...litecoin is an alt, bitcoin isn't. Enough for me  :D


Yeah, this is one thing I'm afraid in a crash.
If it happens at the right moment, just after tons of equipment has been added to the network and the crash if making mining unprofitable for a lot of miners we might experience a temporary drop in network capacity. If it happens at a moment when the block is almost full and the difficulty adjustment is a week away we might experience another huge tx fee increase.

Fortunately currently the profit margin for miners is looking good vs electricity costs so no real drop in hashrate will happen unless we go below 6000.

So, not all the coins that are mined daily, goes into circulation. A lot of the miners are hoarding some of those coins and the rest is converted to Fiat to pay for their expenses. A lot of them will also hoard the coins, until there are a significant spike in the price.  ;)

The previous Halving has not shown any significant increase in the price, because it is priced in before it actually happens. There are a lot of hype prior to the actual date and then you would see a small bump in the price.

Each Halving is unique and a lot of other factors influence the price movement. If something bad happens during or prior to that date, then the price will go down and visa versa.  :D

By the way, anyone knows site(s) on which I can get chart of bitcoin supply over time, like UTXO chart, that I can move mouse to any timepoint to see how many bitcoin are available in supply at that timepoint? Because I would like to link between UTXO and total bitcoin supply at same timepoints.
Here is UTXO chart:

I'm not so sure about that.  I'm not a firm believer in strongly efficient markets, but I've always had the feeling that halfenings can always be priced in well before they happen.  I do recall the last one and how the price rose well before the difficulty doubled, and it could very well be that this jump from $3500 to over $10k reflects the change.  Can't say I'm entirely sure, but with predictable events like that a price change tends to happen before the event itself.

Pretty much, since the supply is growing at a predictable rate, though I do think the halfing would have some influence on the price.  I can't say for sure the magnitude, but it is a pretty significant event in the bitcoin mining world.  Having said that, it is quite a long ways away.  I'm keeping my fingers crossed that by the time it happens we'll see bitcoin above its ATH of $20k+.

Price doesn't fall because miners sell to cover the expenses, it drops because they are selling all they have but they have less to sell now. I mean not "now" but after the halving. Just to talk about the bitcoin part, people had 1800 bitcoins mined every day and they didn't had to sell all of it because they made profit with current difficulty and amount of bitcoins they mined (also transaction fee's they are getting).

Now, if that drops to 900 and difficulty not only stays same but also increases then we will see them selling all of it to just make it even and maybe even lose money for a while until difficulty falls down a bit. That is why price will look like its going down because they are selling but it will be because all of a sudden all miners will be trying to find some profit, it will go back to what it was when difficulty drops and price will be unaffected.

Yes, that's more likely to happen. The chart is encouraging that's why I'm pushing myself to keep as much as I can for a year or maybe two or more as long as I can. I'd love to ride with everyone who manage to keep more until the price is extremely high.

Halvenings have always been priced in long before they have happened, it's literally an information that is known to everyone and always, so the next halvening is probably the reason why the market has started recovering this year. The halvening event itself only causes a tiny uncertainty, due to risks of bugs that can wreck the network - but since the previous halvenings were smooth, there's even less reason to worry now.

The problem is they even drop after the halving itself, like you actually see the price go up before the halving starts and when the halving happens people start to sell, so instead of us having an increasing price because there are less mined coins everyday which should be what the normal reaction should be, we will be having a lot of sales because people see halving as a profitable moment and buy beforehand and when it reaches the peak they sell because after the halving there is no date to wait anymore.

It is idiotic but it happens all the time, it happens with everything as well, not just halving, like happens on difficulty increases too. Lets hope miners do not overreact to this and keep their calm, they have enough power to manipulate anyway they want and that is what I am afraid about.

prepare yourself to be able to get a lot of profits when the price of bitcoin halving usually the price of bitcoin will go up by a very large amount, lest you miss this golden opportunity.

Halving actually helps miners more than you think it does. Not the small timers because they won't be getting anything since the difficulty will be increasing to mine one bitcoin whereas the number of bitcoins mined will be going down.

However, the big miners will be taking advantage of this, the transaction fee's are still there and the difficulty will go up so the small miners will have to leave and the big miners will have a bigger share of the mined coins, they may not make as much as they used to but they won't need as many machines as they used to as well to mine bitcoin which means less purchases for mining equipment and less electricity costs as well. Think about it this way, you will be basically spending less but earning less as well, it is less risky that way but rewards are lower too, I think miners will be hurt but not as much as we think.

Halving increasing price.It was like that and it will be like that
It is hard to estimates exact halving data but it will be around may and june
So not so much  waiting left .Halving bull run will begin at november
Now we are still in accumulation time

900 is not far from Gold mining emission. So Bitcoin finally got to be rare. Of course is still hard to compare both since one was mined in 10 other in 10000 years.

Additionally, there will be only 21 million bitcoins and that is the limit, we will never have 21 million and one. Gold is not like that, I know there is a limited supply of gold on earth right now but we are never really sure how much, I mean we know not too much left but right now one day there could be a place where a ton of gold comes out and then people will mine and end it and then there will be a lot more in some other mine and so forth. That is why there is really no way to be sure about how much gold is left, you can have an "estimate" but not exact number.

Bitcoin going to 900 per day is a lot better than gold right now, its getting more and more limited and getting closer and closer to ending the whole thing eventually. Miners will still make money from transaction fees but at least there won't be any new coins coming out.

I think if we consider demand and supply rule then we would be able to know that the price will decrease slightly when new coins actually being added ..but I don't see why it would only go down during the halving .

Also after the bitcoins reaches the highest numbers then it would increase drastically Making the price and numeration difficult so I think we would start using Satoshi's gradually.
Or.maybe mini Satoshis

If prices continues to jump wildly in the market or in short still be volatile now then the supply changes in the next halving would be irrelevant now. Bitcoin might not be as scarce as we think since we all know Bitcoin can be bought not it's entirety of 1 BTC people can have it on small denominations in satoshis which are also valuable. But back to my main point is with big changes like this and still we always re-visit prices back when we are mining 3600 BTCs per day we all know that supply isn't really the one affecting the price movements but the market timing itself. So if the next halving will make Bitcoin scarcer then it's a plus on our side but we don't really need to expect that this will be the automatic outcome.

There won't be any instant price jump after halving, like some people imagine, because halving is a well-known and predictable event, it has been priced in already. Markets are not some mindless mechanisms that instantly react to change, it's just manifestation of thousands of real human choices, and humans plan ahead. The last time I've witnessed a halvening, the market started growing months before it happened, and then continued to do so for many more months. I'm not going to say that it will be exactly the same, but we need to think about effects of halvening over long periods of time rather than just one time.

Also - if there isn't a price jump, some of the miners will come under considerable stress as their income drops. It remains to be see whether the halvening helps bitcoin or this time is it's nemesis.

Ah I see, thanks for sharing mate. If the history will repeat itself then we still have plenty of time for coin hoarding and probably the best thing to do is to hodl for a little bit longer after the event.

By the way, i saw a video on youtube recently and it is all about what to expect on the upcoming bitcoin halving. Let's watch it (https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=VCPW31n50Wo). I hope it helps :).

I can't wait to enjoy the halving bitcoin that will happen, because surely the price of bitcoin will experience an increase in price, the strong influence of demand and the effect of the total results for the mining that will have a little impact on the price of bitcoin.

The upcoming Bitcoin halving  fundamental is quite strong to have an impact on the bull run, but I feel other  factors outside the cryptocurrency space to will have an impact on the price, global economic factor, recession and the adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency platform by global leaders is a major determining factor that lots of speculators do not consider.

That's not a problem at all. Nowhere does it state that we have to please miners by pumping the price just to keep them on board. If they aren't efficient enough, they'll be forced to either mine at loss until their financial buffer runs out, or they will stop immediately and wait for the price to recover.

The hashrate has yet again gone well ahead of the price action just like it did back in 2018. Time will tell whether the situation is different now in terms of price action, but it wouldn't suprise me if we see the hashrate take a 25ish % dive over the course of a few months if the price plummets. The decending triangle that we're in suggests move of $4000 up or down.

Miners will either jump off the ship or celebrate having made a good decision to increase the scale of their operation.

Bitcoin would have started having some increase even before the halving, so the halving might not even come with much surprise. The halving is slated for May 2020 I think, and for the last quarter of this year I think that bitcoin would start its bull run again like it did in that April, and it would do this to next year till it goes sideways for other altcoins to experience their own surge also.

Although the halving will still have its own effect, but I have learnt not to rely on halving again as factor after the halving of Litecoin really failed as my investment in Litecoin is still the same way it has been for a very long time now, and I remember that people were believing that halving bull run with start, but seems that is not how it works really.

The amount of mined coins dropping will have a lot of affects on our current system.
People are focusing on the halving itself as a date but they are forgetting that it will be like that for years which would have a lot of affects.

For example, having 900 bitcoins instead of 1800 mined everyday may not affect it right on that date, miners may have some extra, however eventually those extra will run out (I assume 2020 late summer but some say it can hold until 2021) but eventually when it runs out there will be a big price increase because the miners will want to make the same amount of profit whereas they will have less bitcoins that they mined which is why they will want to sell it for x2 to keep making the same amount of profit. It's simple maths.

Are you sure guys that halving will pump btc?
Look at ltc nothing has changed

Well you should understand that no matter what with the demand and supply rule it is kind of 💯 that the price of Bitcoin will just increase if their demand if more and availability of bitcoins is less ..I don't know why are people scared of this ...it is only good for us .
We can always trade Bitcoin in minimum ratio using Satoshi's and others when the price is high therefore I think it is not a bad thing .
We are just getting close to something that everyone was kind of waiting for am still not sure if developers would add more and more Bitcoins in the supply chain since Mr. Satoshi haven't even shown his face yet and we are not yet sure if he still wants to engage in this and the team members are supporting other coins and all .
Who knows .

The difference between the halving and difficulty increases will be the biggest tell of all, if the difficulty gets to a place that the mining world becomes more of a monopoly than we are in big trouble and the price may not go up too much, if there is so much difficulty that the big whale miners like Jihan Wu and all mine 90%+ of all coins than there is really not much we can do about the price since those guys will keep making profits while all the minor ones (and I mean dudes with a thousand miners will be small time) will not be able to make profit due to high difficulty so they will have to leave.

We gotta come up with a solution that would both help out the smaller miners but also not hurt the big miners too much as well and I have no idea what that could be. Otherwise we are not looking at a big price increase.

I don't think we need a solution, but just enough economical incentive for miners to have them prioritize long term prosperity of the network over a short term gain by being a piece of scum.

Jihan and the rest of Bitmain control less hashpower than the charts make it look. Also, BTC.com and Antpool have lost around 5% of their hashrate share to other pools in the last couple of weeks. If they keep losing share, smaller miners will then shift to other pools because they find more blocks on a daily basis and thus are more profitable to point hashrate to.

I don't think the mining distribution has been this fair in the more recent years. It's only getting better. :)

You can't compare BTC and LTC with regards to halving. LOL.

Based on BTC past performance, it is really a catalyst for a new All-time-high, it's just a question how big it is going to be and how long are going to achieved it.

First BTC halving, it took us, more than 500 days to reach a ATH. From $2 to $270, do that math how much gain we have.

Second BTC halving, took us 1000++ days, from $160 bottom to 2017's peak at almost $20,000.

So in a hindsight, a 12,000–13,000% increased from the last bottom of pre-halvening to the peak of post-halvening.

I don't think so, this event will not give a little effect for the price of bitcoin but it surely will give a high efect to the price of it. Don't you remember when the halving was coming at 2016 ago? Its price was up until 1000%. Although it was happened in the early of 2017 but I think it is because the halving event.

Moreover when the halving event comes there will be many adoption for bitcoin. Which is mean it will makes the price of bitcoin will up as well. Such the current situation bakkt will launch their system at 23 september and we all know that the information has been been waiting form all the user. So, just my prediction the price bitcoin will up when the halving event comes.

Why not? The reasons that people give for a rise in Bitcoin's price should also apply to Litecoin.

Mining is business, so I don't know if you are willing to help your competition, just saying. Mining companies for sure will released better machines to cope with the next bitcoin halving. So if smaller miners wanted to stay in the game, they need to better equip themselves here. As for the halving, everyone here is in a competition to earn more bitcoin so the price could really trigger a massive growth after the halving.

Such an optimistic chart you've got there  ;D

I really love to see it , but prefer to anticipate the worst thing could happened after the halving. I have no specific reason actually... just try to make a careful move that the mining rewards could make miners losing interest and at some point the current price of bitcoin could be considered as too high ... while some people impatient to see a higher price they are selling it piece by piece especially when the breakout unlikely happened quite a while.

I know everyone would choose to think like " the less supply distributed and the more people wants bitcoin  ....  the price of bitcoin to spike is inevitable. "

Do you think guys those pattern would repeated ? I have no idea.

We can only hope and I too believe that it is just the believe of the people that mining will help bitcoin price increase in 2020 and not because we are completely sure, many of us speculates a lot and we just speculate what we fell will be good for people and would change their mentality toward it.

Do you know what will really boost the price of bitcoin in that 2020, It may not even be the halving reward of miners, but the mentality of people towards it is what will boost the price. You will see that by march, people would have started preparing for the halving and the way they prepare is to start investing in it with the believe that the halving will make the price of bitcoin surge which will surely so through their own investment including me at that time, because no one wants to take the chances.

We don't know whats the reason on helping hands but it isn't really that bad though but thinking of competition it isn't really that ideal to help out
specially if you do target out on making yourself ahead above the rest.We've seen on how miners do evolve as the years passed by which is just normal
to think on yet we do see on our own eyes on how difficulty do rise up.How much more on halving events? The more harder to mine bitcoin.


I cant really deny that Mentality with some sort of mix emotions will be also a driving force on bitcoins price on next years event.
We have seen on how the market reacts with these kind of events specially Bitcoin is heavily been supported by the community.

The price boost may not happen in 2020, but it will be a continue pump till 2020 and beyond. We are just talking about 2020 because that's when the block halving will occur.

However, the parabolic growth could go beyond after that, perhaps three to four years before we can finally see a new all time high.

Bitcoin dropped the price very strongly before the halving event took place! This is really a very bad volatility and shows that manipulative organizations are selling their bitcoins a lot in the past few days. They seem to have left bitcoin.
Like Litecoin Halving, no one expected it to be so heavily discounted after the event. So is mining coin coming to an end? Why would anyone leave it?

Many uncertain factors, holding is the best :)

I am excited when the next halving comes, by the way, I believed that this halving bitcoin will pump. Many speculators showing their Technical Analysis the possible outcome of this next halving. Base on my understanding LTC was a great follower of bitcoin when bitcoin moves upward litecoin will do the same. The best thing to do that brings profit is to hold long term until the halving will come. Thatis pretty sure that halving was happening at the date that we expected.

I am locking this topic, too much spam already. People started to post without reading previous posts.
Reported a few.