Bitcoin Forum

I’m Back!!!
The Nostradamus of half-ass predictions.
This time...I’m using my whole ass!

Be very cautious people. We will see 8K within the next few weeks. Not by sept 5th. But soon.
Sentiment feels negative. This thing is breaking down soon...on its way back to 20K.

I am an amateur. I know less than any professional. Make no decisions based on this post. I only HODL.
But personally I was waiting to buy more sub 9K which I think is about to happen this month. Latest early OCT.


http://img4.imagetitan.com/img4/small/20/20_215395dc-596a-4c76-a0b5-d3f1f7bb4ad8.jpeg (http://img4.imagetitan.com/img.php?image=20_215395dc-596a-4c76-a0b5-d3f1f7bb4ad8.jpeg)

http://img4.imagetitan.com/img4/small/20/20_527be879-ab6b-4929-80c4-e982c40b62a3.jpeg (http://img4.imagetitan.com/img.php?image=20_527be879-ab6b-4929-80c4-e982c40b62a3.jpeg)

No way we are breaking positive from this descending triangle IMO.

By the way that chart doesn't mean that it have to create straight 45 degree angle.
Maybe I want to be positive because otherwise it will be really, really bad, another fall and even below 8K? After so many months we still fight to reach higher than 10k, hit 13k sometimes and then fall on 9k, I think it's time to let this scenario end because otherwise positive feelings will go down too.
Idk, maybe we will see 8k but it sucks.

When??  Inquiring minds want to know.

If you can't at least nail down a narrow timeline for your prediction, it doesn't carry much weight in my mind.  I'd love to be able to bookmark this thread so I can check to see if you were right when the time comes, but "soon" is just too damn vague.

We're at $10,430 right now (dammit, this forum really needs that bitcoin ticker someone suggested).  Someone predicted a drop to about $8500, which was to happen last week.  The price did drop under $10k but didn't get close to what the OP of that thread said, and he was using TA in his prognostications.  So OP, can you kindly provide a date by which bitcoin is going to drop to $8k or below?

Will be interesting to see what happens when the price touches the 20-week MA or EMA.
Back in 2016 and beginning of 2017 it bounced off the 20 MA/EMA five or six times.

I'm definitely watching that descending trend line overhead. The $10,800 level has been a pivot / inflection point several times, and right now it's intersecting with that trend line. That's a huge confluence of resistance. People seem bullish and are acting like the market has already broken to the upside, but until that resistance is broken, I'm not convinced.

NostraAnus the $8k prophet of BTCears  :o

it can't break $11k anymore, it might as well just go below 8k. its better that way so there will be more who will hold the coin than just keep building their sell orders. there isn't really a positive sign to look at the chart. depressing as it may sound but its just what it is. there is an slight spike just like what happen yesterday but that's just it and will continue to do so until halving.

I've also been looking at this ascending triangle for quite some time as well and depending on how you're drawing the triangle, it definitely seems like we'll need a solid break of $11k or so to invalidate this pattern. Caught a nice dip this morning and I'm on a low leverage long for now, but I'll be looking to close and sit out before we hit the trendline as I'm uncertain we'll be able to breka through this time around. It'd definitely be bullish if we manage a solid break through, however.

It's a range market. One could just as easily say "it can't break $9K so it might as well go up."

Eventually this sideways price action will break and honestly, time is running out for the bears. The weekly chart is painting a big fat reversal candle. If bears don't hold the line here at $10,800 where the descending trend line is (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5181346.msg52360349#msg52360349) it's a pretty strong sign that bulls are taking control.

Can you spot the red line going down? Just take a look at the slope where it is heading.

http://img4.imagetitan.com/img4/small/20/20_527be879-ab6b-4929-80c4-e982c40b62a3.jpeg (http://img4.imagetitan.com/img.php?image=20_527be879-ab6b-4929-80c4-e982c40b62a3.jpeg)

I don't want to believe this kind of prediction yet somehow most of them managed to show the correct line of the market. Maybe i was just looking at the other direction just like how OP look at it. I wanted to be more optimistic of the final result that there would be a bull run this and year so a slight drop is still fine as long as it isn't too heavy to look in the chart.

I drank just whole bottle of Martini Bianco and i just dont give a fvck. Show me reversal descending hexagon tough guy.

 ???

By your post history, you're active every day, so how can you be back if you didn't leave?


last time you didn't get it right

Huge drop happening within 48 hours! (Update: BTC Price on Sept 5th) (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5179242.0)

I hope this time you make wrong too

All good with the charts and whatnot but, we have some news that might have the opposite effect:

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bakkt-clients-can-start-warehouse-deposits-on-sept-6

https://www.coindesk.com/van-eck-solidx-to-offer-bitcoin-etf-to-institutions-via-sec-exemption-report

First one will start next Friday (although the real deal will be in a few more weeks), the other one will most likely see the day of light this week. I'm not expecting a huge green candle because of this, but maybe some upward movement rather than a major dip like OP expects?...Or am I being too optimistic?

I love that! Funny. Stuff.

10 days ago: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5179242.0
that is why i don't get the point of opening a new topic for the same discussion. the obsession OP has with this specific number is very strange too. even if you have buy orders wanting to be filled at that price it still is strange to obsess over it this much in this market which is unpredictable!

That is not even call for alarm  for me, because I will be one of the happiest person if we see $8k again, I would just see it as an opportunity that was specially designed for me to buy this coins at a cheaper rate. Bitcoin dip is always a blessing for those who knows how to play the game, I remember many people complaining bitterly recently when the price of bitcoin fell over to $9000, while they were complaining, I was busy looking for extra fiat to use to buy the $9k price, and till now, I am happy that I made that decision, as we can see that the price grew which I have taking my gain with the little goal that I set for it.

I am not expecting us to get anything lower than this anyway, but I think people will still adjust without panic selling and just use it as medium to get more of the coin pending when the price rebound gain.

and this is just as unlikely as the previous time since again you are making the same guess as i said it in your other topic too but this time you included some pictures to add some weight to that guess.

right now the market sentiment is not bearish to expect such drops. and on top of that because the last drop ended up with a reversal of going back to above $1.5k that means day traders no longer expect big drops so the buy support this time is going to be stronger than last which makes any further drops that much more unlikely.

Why are all the, "We are about to crash soon" topics good to hear? Because by the dip, and HODL, that's why. 8)

Thank you, OP. Is this topic representative of the time extension you needed?

last time around it was damn near impossible since he only gave a 48 hour time window. this time he gave himself a month. on that basis alone, he's got a much better shot.


bitcoin also fell $3000 over the course of august. ($12.3k to $9.3k) i see strong moves in both directions. i want to see the upper bound of that triangle convincingly broken before assuming the bulls have won.

Isn't it the Bakkt will start it's warehouse deposit today?

I think this is a good news so I doubt that $8k is going to be the next price level.

So market sentiments is good today, let's see how it will affect the price in the next few weeks to really invalidate that descending triangle and break for a new trading pattern after this one.

According to Coindesk....
On Sept 6, our Warehouse will begin offering secure storage of customer bitcoin to prepare for the launch of Bakkt Bitcoin Daily & Monthly Futures when they launch on Sept 23

Strangely nothing on their site and twitter ....  ???

Op,I'm sad that you are using your whole ass,because it's obvious that your are making price predictions with your ass,not with your brain. ;D
The bitcoin price is moving back and forth in the 9.5-10.5K USD window during the last few weeks.It's common sense to expect that it might crash to 8K USD,because it's obvious that it doesn't have enough support for a big increase.

There is support for an increase however there are also forces holding it back.
The forces holding it back could also be people selling off big amounts of bitcoin slowly so they get the $10k they crave.

IMO it is a correction however not by lowering the price but by waiting for Bitcoin to get back into its "glide" path.

It's tomorrow, but yeah, that's what i said in my previous (that such news could trigger some upward movement). With all the news coming out this month, I don't know why some people still have a bearish mindset thinking that we're gonna go back to levels we haven't seen in over 3 months. If anything we should all be prepared to enter a bull season that''s about to start in Q4.

That's a clear descending triangle and its primarily a bearish pattern but the thing is before even we predict that it will fall down we must know that it will breakdown first and until now both the bulls and bears are out in favor on this cobsolidation stage since we have seen the trading volume greatly decrease. This conso might even overextend and make the triangle invalid when it starts picking up steam again. Nothing is set in stone just because it is now forming a descending triangle.

Why are you trying to calculate bear all the time though? I mean you do know you can predict bull as well right?
First time you got it right and we dropped under 10k on the nose so I would give you the benefit of the doubt but at the same time you said today was the day we would go down and we didn't which means maybe you shouldn't have went for back to back bears, now you are doing back to back to back bears.

I mean I am not saying 8k is not possible, it is quite possible because we go down under 10k all the time and it just stops at 9.4k or whatever so we can just lose another 500 dollars and I wouldn't be shocked about it but at the same time I would say we will go above 10k once again after that so that is my own prediction which is a bull one, you can make those too.

Why we cant break positively out of this triangle?  Any reasons?  At end of triangle in November we could simply make a leg up.  And until then price should stay between $9500 and $11000.   Seems totally possible to me.

Yeah but it's not the most reliable bearish pattern. I won't be surprised if the descending trend line gets broken.

There was a small selloff after tagging the trend line yesterday, but we're still hovering right below it. Bears haven't been convincing, and the mystery trader on Coinbase who market buys into dump attempts was active earlier today:

https://i.imgur.com/ogkWWtm.png

Maybe the "mystery trader" may come back tomorrow and we would see what he will do to the market! Both the bear and the bull look weak and i am not seeing bitcoin fall to $8000 soonest. After the rejection from $10850 yesterday bitcoin only lose around 0.30% and the bear has not be able to bring it down much.

Fake news!  ;D

Predicting something will go down isn’t necessarily FUD.
Value goes up, value goes down.
Nothing goes up in a straight line.

I believe Bitcoin will hit 60-100K in a few years.

But first I think it will hit 8K.

How is that FUD?

LOL it's Friday and the price is going up, as expected from the majority of users. If the trend continues we'll hit 11k in a few hours  8)

How can some people expect a bearish season with these sort of price movements? *sigh*

That's what happens if you use your full-ass instead of half-ass for predictions...

We seem to be going up....  ;)

Now, if you are FOMO about bitcoin enough to call it 60-100k one day, and you still think it will reach 8k soon that means you believe in the fact that bitcoin has to go up by closing all the gaps bottom first before it can go upside. That has been said by many chart wizards before and you guys keep believing that and I can respect that.

However, do not forget that bitcoin moved from 3k to 20k in 2017 and during that time it didn't closed anything, now you can call the reason for dropping so fastly was not closing the gaps while going up or you can call so much fast going hurts us in the long run but that doesn't change the fact that it happened, that is why I think we don't have to go down to 8k to go back up, it would be better but we do not "have to" do it.

Of course it's not. But you're talking to emotional investors with deep set biases. For some of these HODLers, any prediction of lower prices is "FUD" and anyone dumping on the market is a "manipulator." There's no helping these people. They don't know the first thing about markets.


Not yet. Bears are still defending the descending trend line as the OP expected. :P

PRO-TIP: all bitcoin TA and speculation is just guessing. Nothing more to it than that.  ;)

It is literally impossible to account for enough of the economic activity in crypto to generate any meaningful numbers. There is still nothing wrong with it. Guessing is fun.

There are guesses and there are educated guesses. Good TA practitioners fall in the second category. They acknowledge that markets are unpredictable, for exactly the reason you mention: markets are composed of millions of variables and no one can account for them all. But I strongly believe (as someone who has traded successfully for almost a decade) that rigorous application of back-tested TA methods can achieve success > 50% of the time. Over the long run, that will equate to a sustainable win rate for traders who employ proper risk management.

The mentioned back-tested strategies are based on the strategies which generated after analyzing the price patterns. If the market repeats the cycles and bull-bear zones are crossed several times in a year, having a long term trading strategy is not enough in this case. The market bias happens at the every opportunity caused by the weakness of the bulls or bears. If there is no bias exploring market strategy, choosing the timeframe for short/long term trading will not help the trader. Just my 2 cents.

After f the September 5th prediction now we have new one,but this is more safer than before because atleast now we have no specific date so whenever it happens the prediction will comes reality 😂

When I read your first thread I come to think of selling part of my bitcoin for safe keep but lucky that I did not act  too fast because maybe I regret the action today(I’m not saying that I don’t believe or trust you mate I was just being true here)

---

Anyway still looking the market from time to time so I will be updated Incase what you’ve said will happen

Many of us believe that we really are in Bullmarket and anytime soon Growh is what we will having 👍👍👍

Because each time we see that is becoming harder and harder for the price to bounce back, the price is producing new lower highs, the volume is going down and the volatility is going down as well, so when you take all of this into account I do not see how the current price can be sustained, as such it is completely reasonable to expect a decrease in the price of bitcoin during the next months, but do not worry it is not going to be a crash or anything like that, however there are good reasons to be bullish about the prospects of bitcoin during 2020.

I agree.
And he didn't even tell when it will happen.
It could be in the next 5 years. So no need to worry at all.
Plus this is just a prediction, anything could happen in the crypto world. Besides, if it does happen sooner then it will give a great opportunity to some buyers to come in at a cheaper price.
I might buy at that price seeking some profits afterwards.  ;D

All the time that we have seen bitcoin increase, the volume has never really been an indicator for us, we see huge increase, and we see that volume is still like almost the same and only climbed by little, so in bitcoin increase, anything could really happen at any time, but with all the development that is n ground, and the bakkt that is expected to be released this month.

I am not sure that we will see anything that will drag us low to $8000 again; we might still be seeing some corrections that will drop up a little bit down to the range of $9000 but will never cross the path of $8000 again. Very soon, most of the projects that has been developed will start playing its part in the increase of bitcoin when they are being released gradually into the market.

Obviously this is more safer thread than what he had in the last month when he predicted that we will be dropping by September fifth yet he fails .so now he created a new one and with much safer thread
And that’s the reality mate speculations are guessing and nothing can be truthful until it happen(in which very rare to happen and only once in a million who predicted rightfully)

Based on the twenty and fifty days moving average there is more chances for good growth, and bitcoin at present seems to get traded around $10400. The two hundred day moving average seems to form a down triangle, where the market RSI is predicted to break the down triangle and grow. This might reach upto $15000. If this happens surely there is more chances for the price of bitcoin reach its new ath.

We are in a descending triangle. We are safe as long as we don't break bellow $9300 and I think the support there is strong enough. So I think it's more likely that Bitcoin will break the triangle upwards. Anyway, all will be decided soon - before October 10th.

All the behavior I observe is where I expect it to be selling off.    It can act differently but so far I just think it should confirm that downside, meet support if any and then make an attempt to rise possibly.  I dont think right now its going to turn positive until sellers are satisifed and perhaps some shorts close out/buyers come speculating on a rise again.

https://i.imgur.com/KbcVZGR.png

This is just the daily chart for a few days, simple take would be to at least expect 10,000 and check reaction when we get there.   10.5k is roughly 50 day, on other time frames also I think some pullback is reasonable.   For bigger moves down we have to zoom out and take a longer look.

Thanks for making my day.  ;D
When btc price plummets this current day going sub 10k price.I thought that we would already gradually heading down to 8k.
I had able to read up other threads of OP but that one didnt able to have that full precise prediction and now he had set up
some unknown timelines for him not to be bashed.lol

Triangles are prone to head fakes before the real breakout occurs. I wouldn't be surprised if there is a wick/stop run below that level or even into the $8,000s to shake out weak longs and trap shorts.

On the weekly and monthly charts, this looks like an obvious bullish consolidation, a bull flag of sorts. I'm confident we'll be breaking upwards by October, but it's hard to say what will happen in the next couple weeks. It could just be more boring sideways.

those seeing Triangles in the current chart and expecting big falls should really check out the recent "Triangles" that we had that led to many expecting the same thing. the part is in between December 20 (2018) to February 7 (2019) when people were expecting $1000 just because some lines on their charts told them so. guess what happens on February 8?

Forget about the chart, we will not again hit $8K anymore, the growth is good for now and we are stable at $10,000, probably that would be the least price we will see before the end of the year. There are some down trend, it's expected but I never saw in the past months that there are signs we will be bearish and go back to that price again.

Anyway, just like you ,it's just my opinion based my analysis, so I'm just hoping that you are wrong with your prediction.

Long term bullish, but I think we need to go a bit lower to be able to get higher.
Buy back reactions (around 9,5) have each time been less strong.

I have the feeling most people are bullish.
Zooming out there was parabolic (3k - 13k) rise which not a lot of people expected. (certainly not me)
Maybe there will be a longer correction than expected.
with BTC expect the unexpected.

Nobody knows exactly but with the halving coming up, this is al noise.

We are at a point in the market where the only thing we can do is to wait and see what happens, I understand your points and they make sense but I see the charts by myself and I think I have a point as well so the market is giving mixed signals, however I still believe that any chance of a bull run during the next months is extremely low since the market is showing more and more weakness after each decrease in the price and as soon as the bulls pressure diminishes the bears will take control of the market.

I'm a little worried about it since the price of Bitcoin is starting to decrease each day and now it stop at $10,000. But if the price keep decreasing each day, the possibility of reaching $8,000 again is not impossible. How long does the market would act like this? Instead of breaking new resistance it's keeping its stable price between $10,000 and $11,000.

This has all happened before.

My view is that
- People selling are getting out.
- People buying are invested in this price.
- bitcoin fundamentals are still ok.

It's a waiting game for the loose hands to leave and we go up again...

Breakout attempts are failing in both directions. The market right now is what we call "chop city." Price is chopping and whipsawing in both directions in the short term, but per Dow Theory we are still in an established downtrend on higher time frames. So our bias should lean bearish.

We might just stay sideways above the $9,000 level. We also might see a final shakeout of the weak hands, perhaps to the lower $8,000s. All I know is, the market isn't ready to go up yet. I'm confident this year's uptrend will eventually continue, but there may be more blood first.

Trying to decide today if your full-ass predictions a week ago are about to come true, or if we're just see sawing again with this 10k pivot. Keep telling myself to at least do a wee bit of scalping every sub 10k dip and then come up on to with easy 10% the next time it swings back and everyone keeps thinking the bulls are back but they aren't...

But so far so good being patient and painfully sticking to my quarter-assery convictions.

We almost break that bellow $9,300 last couple of weeks so we’re still struggling to hold on and just yesterday we almost fall bellow $10,000 again
While I have a big trust in crypto market most specially in Bitcoin but I don’t take all the possibilities out of the scene because just this year alone we came across the $3,000 -$13,000 so the reverse is not far from happening also.

For some reason your analysis looks very much like this analysis:

Price Analysis 02/09: BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, LTC, BNB, EOS, BSV, XLM, XMR (https://cointelegraph.com/news/price-analysis-02-09-btc-eth-xrp-bch-ltc-bnb-eos-bsv-xlm-xmr)

Price Analysis 11/09: BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, LTC, BNB, EOS, BSV, XMR, ADA (https://cointelegraph.com/news/price-analysis-11-09-btc-eth-xrp-bch-ltc-bnb-eos-bsv-xmr-ada)

According to the price analysis of this article, the price may fall to $7400. This has become something of a competition between you and this article, but it is a competition to see who is about to hit. we will see in the coming weeks who will win


this is knowledge, and it's called prediction because it has a chance of happening as well as a chance of not happening

Its about probabilities, we dont have any certainties as its all real time markets so there is a constant variance to every price anyway.    I just look at charts to help show where the best chances are of a turning point, the clever traders then can frame a profit vs risk and participate without signing up as if its their heart invested.    I'm still learning that part because execution is another question. 
  Every good trader has multiple options and takes the best of them because all scenarios can fail to some extent.

Nothing to worry about mate, don’t let all those fud new get into you and don’t cheaply play into the hands of the whales, the whales has not really gotten the breathing space that they need to enter the market, that is why they have been trying to crash it and the bulls have been trying to kick start the market.

If we are panicking at this stage now, then we are indirectly empowering the bears meanwhile, the bulls are the ones that really needs our support right now and we are meant to do everything possible to support them, and one of the support they would need is never to join those who are crashing the market do so, because if we do, it would only favor them, while it will take us out of the market till future when we are regretting taken the action we should not have taken.

This is probably true with every prediction  :P.

Majority will go for the long term as that is the safest option in any trade, if the market is goes down and if you are planning to buy again then it is well and good as everyone is waiting for the market to go down to enter for the long position . One thing i know is that the market is looking for a direction and it is possible that the market might go down further before another rally.

I am not a big fan of charts as the market will not necessarily move according what the charts say. If the market moves according those prediction then everyone would have made a ton of money  ;).

If really go to $8000, people can accumulate more. I think if people really have positive sight for bitcoin in future, dumped price will be something that can help them buy in cheap price. Although some other people is panic, i still believe if out there a lot of people still think positive about bitcoin especially when halving come, with price dumped they will buy more and hold.

The sad part about this is that, Doc was right on his first one, he is a very bull guy as well and he keeps saying that, so we have someone in our hands that says bitcoin will eventually go up for sure, then says this one time it will fall and it does, which all looks like he is awesome for all of us. Then he comes up and says it will go even further, which it doesn't and it stays the same or at least around the same, then he says it will fall even further some other time, I mean looking at bitcoin that is not really some sort of insane guessing there, of course it will drop further one day, its bitcoin for Christ sake it always goes up and down, it went up and now it will go down. That has been the hectic bitcoin movement since the start of bitcoins inception.

The chart showing yes it will pump soon, but you know market always changed direction time on time wherein without knowing due to the factors that suddenly manipulate the growth rate. so don't assume that the potential is 100%. Much better to monitor the price rather than relying on that news because in fact even experts sometimes can't predict the real direction of growth rate. So you better wait for more results before trusting on it.

umm! no he wasn't!
there is a big difference between re-testing the same buy support line and bouncing back up immediately after testing it.
and to break that buy support and go below it.

what OP was "predicting" was the second one but the first thing happened. so no, he was horribly wrong about that.

To be honest, I don't want to expect to see $8k again after we are at a very low price before. I only hope that the price can rise again and maybe the price will break $11k, $12k, $13k, and so on. I am sure that if the price can rise on every high price, that will make them happy and we will be back to make huge money from bitcoin.

Although there is no exact time to see the very highest price from bitcoin, somehow, I still believe that bitcoin price can be back to the $20k like before, but we don't know when it will happen. But if we take a look at the chart, we can see the higher price in the future, and it is hard to see the price is down at $8k or lower price, but it could be possible too.

Speculation is indeed will affect bitcoin price in the future but it is not guarantee IMHO. Although you have a convince that the speculation will come then you need to compare with another speculation. I have done it sometimes before I decide to hold my bitcoin until the halving event come.

I mean if there is some speculation such this thread who deem that bitcoin will goes down then I will looking for another speculation. So, I just have conclusion that speculation who based by technical analyst it will have 40% that the speculation. But if there is some speculation who based by fundamental analyst I'll put 60% that the prediction will happen. And you can see the answer now, bitcoin price hasn't reach 8k or below of it price so far. Bitcoin price just touch $9000 as the lower price.

Saying "soon" is a cop out, I mean we can literally say that bitcoin do anything "soon" and we will be right, sure it will probably go down a bit "soon" and it will go up "soon". The real trick is to find when it will go up and down not will it go up or down.

If you can predict when then you will have a chance to make money, for example I can honestly bet on bitcoin going down believing this topic, however it could go up first then go down and I would lose profits from there, I could get the peak bitmex long first then short and make bigger profit. That is why I just hold bitcoin and ethereum and keep it there, don't risk anything and become just long term holder since I am not really a good trader or understand when it will go down or up I just keep it on my wallet without touching it.

I hope that we are going to hit 8k soon.
There is a huge different in price between Bitcoin and altcoins. It is not normal to see alts so low and bitcoin in this price. The different between those assets should come closer. But I think that if bitcoin starts falling altcoins are going to drop in price more...

That huge difference is well justified because altcoins are pure garbage. The irrational nature of this market however doesn't look at how garbage they are, but where the next money making opportunity is, so from there I think that altcoins will be taking over the spotlights. Bitcoin's chart looks ugly af, while altcoin charts look increasingly more bullish.

That has been the trend, but the trend is your friend until the end, and the end might be near. In other words, I do expect that Bitcoin making lower lows will result in a capital shift to altcoins, because new money isn't going to enter to buy the dip. People love to buy what's going up and that seems to be the altcoins.

I'm hesitant to say anything because I'm afraid to jinx it, but altcoins are looking fantastic vs. BTC. Many are on the cusp of major breakouts, though we are still below major monthly/yearly resistances. Everyone still seems to be in disbelief which is perfect. The alt market is beginning to feel like January 2017 again.

If ETH can do another leg up and retake 0.023 as support then I'm pretty sure it's on. So fingers crossed. And that will bode really well for BTC too as money starts flowing into altcoins rather than fiat.

I don't think the BTC chart looks ugly at all.......it's just not quite ready to break up yet.

I hope that we do not see $8k again, although that could be possible to happen in the future. But now, I hope that the price can hold them down and then the price can increase higher again. But it seems, the trend of bitcoin is down, and I wish that the down of the bitcoin price is not too long and not reaching the lower price. If that happens, I think many people will be panic because they are holding some bitcoin and they ready to sell. But who knows, after this downtrend, the cryptocurrency market will see the coming of the bull run. And if that is happening to the altcoin first, then I think people are happy because they are holding so many altcoins and they hope they can sell at the higher price when the bull run is coming.

The altcoin increase kinda shows that bitcoin is actually ready to go up once again, in order for bitcoin to go up more we needed to break the domination a bit, now going down to $8k would mean domination would have been lower but we didn't go that route and then the altcoin prices moved up which broke down the domination a bit, now we can increase the bitcoin price all the way to 70% domination once again without a trouble.

It is really a roll of dice and sometimes you are right and sometimes you are wrong so there is no reason to feel sad about not knowing what bitcoin will do, its something that no one can predict before hand, of course there will be times where you get it right and there are times where you get it wrong but at the end of the day we are all humans and we make mistakes so its all cool.

Finally we got a bit of a move and its down towards previous lows again.   Testing support after definitely leaving the 50 day average and where also 8 and 30 were closely placed -

https://i.imgur.com/mqzNJQg.png

1hr bars, its got the usual pin from familiar prices.   This is the same low reached on July 2nd, selling off after the peak price for this year of 13k.   So its done nothing new except confirm price is somewhat weak in this formation.

If adoption rate had grown to the fullest, we would have relied more on the growth of the value, and all these speculations would not be much because what I see that we just use now to control the price is speculation.

Speculation is good, but it is not meant to be the main determinant factor for the rice of bitcoin, there is need for us to do more in the aspect of using bitcoin as a payment tool because this is exactly the one that paves way for demands for bitcoin, if we constantly get demand for bitcoin, there would surely always be a constant increase in the value of bitcoin also. I believe in the future though and I believe that we will be the one to beg bitcoin to stop increase when the time comes that full adoption of bitcoin comes.

It's possible that Bitcoin price will go down, it's part of volatility. But to say exactly that this is going to happen and how deep the price will go its very hard and it must be remembered that charts are not always reliable. So it's not recommended to make decisions now based on such speculations.

The problem is that everybody has this triangle drawn on their charts. Everybody is looking at it and basically if it breaks the $9100 area they will go short and if it breaks the trendline, then they will go long. However keep in mind that this is crypto and most likely there is a good chance they will be a fake move first and then it will quickly reverse.

The trendline is trickly because of the way people draw the lines however the horizontal support at $9100 is easy to see. I won't be surprised that we might break $9100 and break $9000 and hit something like $8950 and completely reverse and trap a bunch of shorts and then we might break the trendline with high volume.

Either this or vice versa and we do a head fake to the upside and then we start to go down.

Triangles are especially prone to headfakes, and not just in crypto. That's why I'd love to see one more shakeout to test the lower trend line first.


The ascending trend line (on Coinbase) is a hair below $9,500. That's why I'm looking for one more wick down to that area, maybe slightly below into the $9,400s. Buyers will be looking to keep the succession of higher lows intact. I really don't think we'll see $9K.

Good prediction. $7,998 to be exact (at least on Bitstamp).
Thats why people should always listen to their ass.

we just crossed below $8k on bitstamp---excellent call, doctor! i have to admit, it looked touch and go for a minute. i thought the upper bound of the triangle was gonna break on that spike to $10.4k last week.

you must feel vindicated now eh? all the bulls were giving you a hard time after that "next 48 hours" call. :P now they're all quiet and licking their wounds!

I dont know if it is still early to ask, but... who sold the bottom?

Seems like I will retract my first post here 😅

Now Bitcoin is falling up to below $8,500 as I typing this comment and market cap continues to fall so I can see more downwards from the Cryptocurrency

No wonder your prediction is soon to happen,if not today at least early tomorrow

---

The question is why “ Why Need To Sold when Bottoming “

Isn’t if much applicable if we interested in “Buying” when bottom reached?

I would like to hear out on what would be their words at the moment.We didnt even hit 8k below but we are almost there.
Price had been 8300 a while a go and the movement is like a dead cat bounce.Price starts to consolidate.Possible bottom this time?

The question is,which price is the bottom line?lol

Thanks.  I am not a trader, but having been in this space since 2014 (check my history), I can feel which way the wind is blowing.  That descending triangle was so clear even an amateur like me could see it.  Those usually break down.  And right now...after that huge runner to 14K (most of which I think was pumped by tether), the market needed a good solid correction. 8K range felt right.

Anyways...I am a bull long on bitcoin.  I think 60K-100K is very very possible.

Today I cashed in on my prediction (sold in the 10.5K range, bought back at 8.6K).

My next prediction...WE ARE GOING LOWER!!!! My guess...we hit 6.8K in the next few weeks...lets say by October 20th 

Whose the NostraAnus now!!!
Wait..still me.

Let's say we'll see the 6.8K or not. Do you think we'll see the 3K again?

No...I do not think we will see 3K again.  Enough dumb money saw the rise to 20K...and didn't get in when it rose to 14K...but wish they did.
I think enough people are watching that 3K number thinking "I won't miss it this time."

So for that reason, I don't think we will see 3K again.  I wish we would.

I think that 6K level could be the floor.

That said...take my words with a grain of salt.  I'm a veteran in the space...but honey badger don't care!!

I'm glad someone else called it a descending triangle but its not always certain the outcome even if the pattern is recognizable, we just get some forewarning of the likely possibilities.    So the point really now is how does it act after hitting outside this triangle, does it now determine direction in the bigger picture will be downwards.   I have it at some prior support which is just a trend, I think we can bounce a bit and this would also be part of a larger sell if it can hit a ceiling and tire out buyers.

https://i.imgur.com/er9ux0V.png

So lets see if it can keep 9000 as an over head ceiling and then it might also lose 8100.   I would not normally not expect it to just hit a declining trendline and finish its selling in a simple way.
 7340 is an initial target past 8100 if it should push past right away.

I believe we're in the middle of institutional traders taking it all in their hands and decide the direction of the markets and maybe the selloff was to make these type of investors get in at lower while also considering a fact that selling it off in leveraged positions make these SHORTS higher gains compared to those who open long leveraged positions. And since you already predicted $7340 past 8100, let us not forget that BTC already went near $7800 on most exchanges in minutes while this dump took place, so I currently believe that the game has already been played, chaos has been nested in the minds of longs where everyone is scared of taking a long position while it is also advisable to stay away from the markets before we see how and where BTC closes its weekend.

Too soon. We need to see a sign of strength first, like a rebound into the previous range. Once we're back at $10K or so we can be pretty sure the bottom is in. Until then.......we could go deeper.

Longs only dropped 6 or 7% on Bitfinex. Disappointing! Makes me wonder if the bears have more in store for us. :-X

I have to admit that I gave very little prospects to OP prediction, but still he was right. It was inevitable that things will go in one direction, the price was too long at same level, and if there is no power to push up, down is only possible direction.

We all know it's very easy for BTC to move $1000 up or down, and therefore it should not be strange if price go above $9000 tomorrow, but also $7000 or even lower is possible. I can not say if Bakkt is a reason for this drop, or that speculation about drop-in hash power, but obviously it's still very easy to bring down the price if a large quantity of coins is sold in a short time.

Im going to wait for $6800. This might be the definitive bear trap, as a lot of nocoiners are waiting for 3k.

I have always said even back when topic first started, guessing the price will "eventually fall" is not really a great prediction in itself, sure its good that you knew exactly how much it will fall and stop but the timing is a bit important as well.

Just to give an example, I will say "bitcoin will be 10k one day" , if it eventually goes above 10k that doesn't mean I know what I am doing, that just means I didn't give a time and a sensible guess.

I hope you are wrong on the 6k though, I have a ton of bitcoins laying around and I really want to sell them soon, without price going up I am not touching any of them and I am not entirely sure how long that will be which is why I hope you are wrong because even going back above 10k is difficult in itself and going to 6k than going to 10k would be even harder.

Including the possibility of a "false breakout." I was on the lookout for this possibility before yesterday's selloff:


Further downside below $8K is possible, and even likely, but I believe it will be pretty short lived. That's usually the case in the latest phases of accumulation schematics. (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5140701.msg52548810#msg52548810)

Interestingly, in Elliot Wave, Bitcoin's chart wouldn't have been deemed a triangle at all. (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg52495185#msg52495185)

Sometimes TA analysis works out and sometimes it doesn't work out,  in the scenario of OP he got it right,  and it's quite obvious that his chart explains it way better, not just a guess work,  some even went ahead to predict as low as $4k, it's gonna be bad for the market,  $13k your speculated was what someone said is all time high price for bitcoin in 2019, I'm hoping he's wrong too, ain't feeling good seeing Btc down

Anything can really happen into this speculative market.Ive seen how OP being bashed down when the price didn't able to hit on a certain point but now
it did happen but we aren't still below it as stated on the title.

Technicals can either work or not and it isn't really bad to give out our own views but people do really love to criticize on what others trying to share up.
We are all speculators on here.

Going below 8k is too far down stretched but its still possible.

Much fear and panic in the hearts of men today. A famous oracle once said "Buy more bitcoins when they are selling in fear, sell them when they're buying in euphoria," or something like it.

I'm buying more today.

I predict $20k bitcoin by end of this year. Probably $40k or higher. Don't forget the halving in 8 months or so.

Im not going to say you are wrong to buy because its always a personal choice and management of your portfolio, cash flow and all sorts of considerations.   However I'd rather not buy early, its much harder to do but I'd like to get the spike down as I often have the trend on my chart but it happens when I'm not looking most of the time.
   For now I dont think we get much of a spike, we get what I think is called a relief rally.    Its a retraction of the down move though it doesnt mean its over but its natural we rise before any further action.   However I'm still learning so I'm never quite sure I've put the right piece in the right place and time of course.

https://i.imgur.com/ak1P3fI.png

So its a break above 2 day average and for a long I want to see it stay above that measure on this 1hr bars.   I'm too busy to watch it, Im not a great fan of stops and off hand approach but thats my take anyway for today going into tomorrow.
  It got to 50% recovery earlier or immediately after, this now also adds some time so it could get back up.

OP, I gotta hand it to you.  I don't believe in TA, but I wrote this not too long ago in this thread:


And I have to say, your prediction of "soon" was pretty accurate (although bitcoin hasn't actually hit $8k yet).  Bitcoin is at $8500 or so as I'm writing this, and I'm not sure what's going on besides there being more sellers than buyers right now.  If this continues, we definitely could hit $8k although I'm hoping bitcoin rebounds instead of dropping further.  We're all probably hoping for that.

Instead of panic selling, I bought some bitcoin instead.  Not too much as I don't have a lot of spare money for investing, but I figure this is a fire sale.  Bitcoin's probably going to get back above $10k fairly soon.  Got any predictions about that, OP?

bitstamp hit $7998 so technically he's already hit the mark.


all eyes are on his next call now. (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5181741.msg52549162#msg52549162) down to $6800 on the way up to $60k+. i doubt we'll get that low myself but hey, he's the nostradamus of the day, not me!

They have prediction and it looks much closer to me than yours $10k

Looks like a relief rally to me too. We haven't seen a capitulation-like reversal yet, no strong bounce, no hammer or dragonfly candle. The current bounce looks like a dead cat bounce. Chopping around before another attempt downwards.

I believe we are heading back to 6.8k range. Not sure when yet. But I think we go lower from here.

I hate to accept but it seems that we are heading that way now,Bitcoin at $8,300 this point and looks lowering by midnight again just like last night

But on the side this is advantage to m because I have been siting for a fall to reinvest again as half of my holding has been sold when the price reached $13,000 mid this year

Given the current situation, $20k seems pretty far away, and $40k doesn't look real at all given what timeframe you placed it. The effects of halving have so far come after halving, not before. I think you should look at halving 2016, nothing significant has happened before, but we have the big pump in December 2017, although the price was slowly rising throughout the whole year before that.

Expect the unexpected is something to consider when it comes to Bitcoin, maybe it just happens the opposite of what most expected.

Since we broke down from the symmetrical triangle our last line of defense here is really 7,900$ which is just around the EMA 50 moving average. If we don't recover at the price soon and we retest the 7,900$ support level and BTC failed then expect it to go down as far as the 7,200$ which is the next know support level for Bitcoin. Right now I don't see any indicators pointing out another sell off will happen but I won't get too complacent on BTC not retesting the EMA 50 level.

i don't think we can reach $20k this year but it is not at all far away as you think it is. in fact $20k is so much closer than you can even imagine. you are feeling the same as how people used to think about 8 months ago about seeing $10k which also was considered "far away".

i don't think it will be reached only because each time (in each cycle) we get closer to the ATH of previous time it becomes increasingly hard to break it. so the rise slows down the closer we get to that arbitrary number. you can look at $1200 in 2017 and see how that looked like.

I've got something to share here:

BTCUSD Weekly

https://i.ibb.co/LZfdr4L/Screenshot-2019-09-27-04-42-03-131.jpg

BTCUSD Monthly

https://i.ibb.co/ZxpPdwR/Screenshot-2019-09-27-04-42-25-419.jpg

Watching both the charts very carefully, I can conclude that this beast is probably following the older pattern and may form a triangle very soon that could be a deciding factor for the long run of BTC in a single direction (could be up, could be down). But all I can say here is that, OP's prediction of $6800 is valid and possess some weight in it because if it is actually following the older pattern, then I see an extra possible downturn as well as sideways incoming. However, it can't go much down because the previous high (~$20k) was much more higher compared to the lower high we saw this year (~$14k) which lowers down the possibilities of a free fall.

Much closer is how much in the time frame, 6 months, 1 or maybe 2 year? I personally have an opinion that the next big bull run probably has the greatest chance of happening for at least 6 months to a year and a half after halving. If we look at what are predictions from some experts, most of them saying that $100k+ we can expect around the year 2022 or after that.

2017 was a specific year, and rise is starting after 6+ month after halving, with big pump in December powered by Bitcoin futures launch and probably the biggest FOMO effect created by the media. I see special show on my local TV about Bitcoin, and almost all newspapers have reported about this on the front pages.

The price won't go up on its own, a large amount of money is needed to start a new bull run, I think it's totally unrealistic to expect small investors to invest their money so easily after they get burn back in 2017/2018.

Good logic, when too many are anticipating it doesnt tend to happen or it has a kind of magnetic effect to it where support can both attract then repel the price from staying there.   I think 6k is possible but only as a spike, it was a significant price at one point but its already a great pullback by this price and if there is an elasticity to the price its at the extremes to move that far so quickly.   Possibly the Bakkt event is a destination that triggered an unwinding of anticipation and allowed selling to move past support.
  When people start to stay oh it cant happen or we're past that then I think it becomes more probable which is ironic but seems to be what occurs repeatedly.   Its taken from July till now to properly stop trying to go higher after it clearly lost the uptrend back then so the market has waves of various types of buyers who dont at first agree hence we loop for a while seems like.    Nobody agrees on 6k but it can happen as a sell off point.

  The biggest clue for where we do settle after a big sell is to just look previously where we went sideways alot, volume is higher in that point and old orders are possible and interest registers that price as significant to people.  If buyers and sellers agree on that price more often it means price stabilizes.   Then others observe the stability, we get the next wave who are willing to buy hold, it then self builds confidence again.
  For a spike down to 6k I'd want to see a recovery to 9k maybe 10k here which then does not stick, stalls and loses the buyers at that point and makes a lower low more possible

A small group of people are predicting bitcoin prices to move back to 10K but majority of the users are anticipating a big dump. I read that if this dump continues, we can hit even 5.8K which will really be not good for crypto currencies. If you ask my personal point of view, bitcoin moves mostly unexpectedly and therefore i see bitcoin back to 10K and liquidating the shorters.

8k and below is about to happen in a few hours. We're already teetering at sub 8.1k levels. It would be interesting to see if the $7.5k barrier can hold back the flood gates or not.

Regardless, people should get into the habit of dissociating Bitcoin from Usd. That way whatever the price of 1 BTC is in USD, it would still remain unchanged - imaginatively.

I say imaginatively because I know very well that is not how real-world functions. You can call this a coping mechanism of sorts.

As far as im aware we didnt even hit below $7800 price but now if the current movement will continue on a fast phase then we might able to hit down
that price support of $7500.For now we are tanking on 8k price levels and it seems we are stabilizing these levels but we wont know or lets see on what would happen
on next hours or days.The best thing to do now is to utilize up these movements on making money.Increasing and decrease for 1-2% is already
a worthy reason to short up.