Bitcoin Forum

I will share my Bitcoin estimates here.
I will share the analysis only in specific cases.
Almost all my analyzes have been accurate before.
(Daily 1 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5181993.0) - Daily 2 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5146097.0) - Daily 3 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1904236.0)) I have been sharing analyzes since 2017.
Everyone can be mistaken. Nobody knows the future.
I'm just testing myself and trying to score for myself.

You can write your guess and feedback.

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Disclaimer. Reject liability:
I'm just writing my own thoughts.
I'm not suggesting anyone move with me.
Even if you are going to invest in my writing and do it according to your own assessment and risk analysis.
I'm just testing my own analyzes and forecasts here.
I do not give investment advice to anyone, neither private nor public.
The topic is only a blog.
All crypto currencies are high risk investments.
All investment decisions are the sole responsibility of the individual.

September 12

I've written this before.
Currently btc 10300 dollars
Downward pressure continues at Bitcoin.
Pressure's a little low. But it goes on.
In my opinion; will make a move up again.
10400-10500 levels.
Maybe he can try higher. (10,700)
I can clearly state that:
This will happen and we will go back to the 9750 band again. (On average)

So far, price been playing between 9000-10500 levels for some months now.
No one can indeed predict the future and we always been seeing lots of charting and analysis.
It isnt bad though but those doesnt give out precise but somehow you can utilize up on doing shorts.
Its profitable for me.

Thank you for your insight.

Key level here is $10,200 if this supports hold then probably we can see the price go higher as you have said around the $10,700 range.

But it doesn't hold in the next couple of days, maybe we can see the price going below $10,000 again.
So let's see how our prediction goes.

I guess we are not getting anywhere than the $10,000 USD mark, And I think this is really a strong floor for the Bitcoin's price, And the high price we may reach if the price pump will be $12,000 USD and if it decreases, $9200 - $9300 mostly in this marks, up to the month of November in my opinion, Well I am guessing that the mark of December will be in the downtrend because of the holiday season more likely if we get a price increase in November the price will drop from $12,000 to $11,000 and if the price is in the downtrend the price will be almost just $9400 to $9100 in my opinion.

$10k is a psychologically important support level, so it holds a lot of weight in that regard, but to counter that, it will turn into a major resistance level once the sellers have sold through the buy support and bulls just give up.

If we're completely honest and look back at previous bull runs, the price hasn't had much of a brutal crash this year at all. It has been a steady decline we went through so far, so I'm kinda expecting more to come that will shake out weak hands.

The more people have confidence in $10k to be a floor or level bulls are willing to support all the time (similar to $6k last year), the more likely it is that we can expect a move in the opposite direction. Don't get trapped.

@YuginKadoya bitcoin has found new resistance at $9300 levels hence I don’t expect it to breach $9k, on the upside I believe we may see prices rise upwards to $13k or $15k levels in coming months. If you’ll have observed even when the prices were crashing it was able to recover from $9200 to $10300 levels in a short while, and hopefully with the launch of Bakkt prices should rally more.

News: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-charts-aligning-with-bakkt-launch-points-to-a-big-move

I've been expecting further shakeouts for a while, like the low $8,000s or further. Bears are running out of time though. If we don't see a significant breakdown by the end of September, it becomes increasingly likely this is just a time correction......a sideways flag rather than a sharp pullback. I'm still hoping for some buying opportunities in the next few weeks, but I'm losing confidence.

in my experience at times like this bitcoin becomes completely unpredictable and predicting or even trading at this time is a futile attempt.
we have had similar situations multiple times before too. price is on the rise then it gets stuck behind an arbitrary price level (resistance) and starts its sideways move. after a couple of drops to the low of that sideways it becomes impossible to know when it will breakout.

right now we are exactly in the similar situation. you only mention downward pressure but you are missing the other pressure the "upward one" hence the term "sideways". both of these forces are there and are equal right now.
from last drop we saw how the other pressure is strong when price practically jumped back up after the drop!

Yeah. I have been honest and not even brutally, and I still insist this crypto winter everyone was using as a label was far from accurate.

I definitely have been hoping for worse. I've always been reading about capitulation and despair but I didn't really see it. Lost quite a few old timers even but when you see the shillers still doing their thing and the Tom Lees still getting a majority portion of traffic then you know the optimism is far from dying.

I do want a purge. I'm ready to wait out a real crypto winter.

Think that's got any proper chance of happening?

There was serious support for the possibility of 10700.
The market is moving like I wrote before.
I'm expecting a comeback from 10500-10700.

I wouldn't hold your breath.

I think the market will at least build out a respectable Wave 5 to a new ATH like xxxx123abcxxxx has charted (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg50467456#msg50467456) before we get another taste of winter. On the higher time frames (like the monthly) this is a raging bull market that's just spent 2-3 months flushing out profit takers and weak longs. The path of least resistance is north. The market is liable to keep chopping around a while, but in terms of the bigger picture, I'd say we're due to start heading north by next month.

Since this is an important support level for bitcoin I think we can surely say that we might not see any down level instead for this mark, And resistance is pretty much strong right now so just like you say bulls might give up, for the time being, If a lot of weak hands would be shaken by this resistance we might see a slight decrease from time to time,


It could be and could also be not, but I think if the price would make an effect with the pump it may truly have some rally that may go on with the Bitcoin price, And well resistance can be at $9000 or $10,000 in my opinion.

Sounds reasonable but if some arent making money or living in hope of gains then they are sellers, theres always weak hands in the price and they havent yet been shaken out.    Thats ok if we have others taking their place, underlying growth in BTC can do alot but I think there is a large amount of speculation on that already which is why they will sell if a gain is not observed in price or in perception from some news perhaps.
   We are living in strange times with negative rates that has never really occurred over a majority of the worlds nations before.   We could go back to fiscal regimes of medieval empires and still not find the loopy logic and custom we have enacted right now so who knows, cannonballs will float in mercury (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f5U63IGmy6Q) which I mean to say its all relative to the contrast occurring in money markets contraction or expansion.     There is talk of recession but so far just talk.

Yeah, that's the scenario I'm preparing for, even if inside I still want a really cheap Bitcoin to accumulate. It's bittersweet. Sweet because I'd really use a new ATH to liquidate a stash I have, get out of some personal rut. Bitter because although I was really thankful for last year, otherwise I wouldn't have had a chance to get much, it's still far from the right "club membership" I'd like to be in.

Maybe that ATH will lead to an even bigger winter, then. And maybe the really smart thing is to liquidate enough at the ATH to reconsolidate in the coming winter cycle.

If you and most charters are right about next month, it's going to be a scramble!

@palle1 can anyone really be shocked anymore by this market? =)

And in sideways flags they do get shaken out. People have been very fearful over the past month. (https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/) Even if the market isn't making new lows, weak hands are selling to accumulators. I'm confident this June-September range = accumulation based on the monthly trend. After enough time has passed (maybe another month?) supply in this range will dry up even if bears don't make a real stand.


The 21 Club? Surely you don't mean the Vladimir Club?! :P

It's so hard to say beforehand. I personally will front run the all time high by selling some (5% of my stack) around the $17 or $18k mark. Not because I need the funds, but purely because I don't think we'll break it right away.

I can see why the $19.5k mark is something longer term accumulating institutions want to not be broken, so dumps similar to what we had around the $14k mark will be what I prepare for.

At the end of the day, we'll either regret or be happy about the decisions we made. I kinda regret not having paid too much attention to the importance of the $14k level since that was the highest ever monthly close we had.  :-X

Yeah same point here because  the $10,200 is the basis of the price now,for how many weeks now we have Ben stables on this value but we don’t need to be contented since there’s a highest to come

For OP..

Thanks for this thread as you are sharing forecast because atleast we can have pattern to expect in future

Maybe a break is eminent after that range. It has been around the price for sometime now. I expect an upward movement after this time because we are approaching the ending of the year.

A break is obvious but you shouldn't expect much of an uptrend momentum in the bitcoin market because there's demand force to make that happen because the market will only experience some slightly increase in price just like we experienced a couple of days back till the end of this month.

Yes! It's quite funny and weird at the same time, but even people who have gone through the pumps and dumps for years still find themselves trapped one way or another.

The thing is that people adjust themselves to whatever the situation is in the more recent months and discard what happened before that. I have already seen people say that just because the bulls have supported the $10,000 level it's the new bottom. They no longer think about how $6000 last year was more fiercely supported and for a much longer period of time. It still broke.

Just look at how many threads will pop up when $9000 breaks asking why the price has gone down. It's always the same story.

+++
It's like I said. The movements I've been waiting for. The pressure is relieving itself now. Again, it was a successful analysis.

The market is currently pointing to its lower bull. The situation becomes clear in a few days. Currently there is no pressure up-weight balance.

I am enjoying the last 4 btc analysis right now.

It was a good call, kudos. That dip below $10K was very short-lived......very strong reaction from buyers! So my bias is getting really bullish now. I figure some sideways coiling is still possible in the coming days, but breaking above the $10,350 area again should trigger a big move.

What do you think?

There is no specific situation yet. I'll only share the signal in obvious situations. There is balance and uncertainty now. This could create a small bull for the altcoin.

Greetings ...

This was also fake. Cuz of that 175 mil printed dollars in last few days. That why we had sudden fall and recovery. Think we are in stable run for the moment and that we will see next spike in upcoming month for some 12-13 level for the moment. Dont think we will have something big in next month or two.

September 24
Bitcoin is 9730 dollars.
I'm waiting for up from this area.
Now we are free from the downward pressure.
The bull for Bitcoin now ...
Goal 1 10300
Goal 2 10500

BTC getting into oversold territory now, this drop can be the last shake down before the strong rally resumes towards possibly a new ATH,

I would consider 7500-8000ish USD levels during the next 1-2 weeks as opportune places to incrementally add to your BTC positions

(while keeping some reserves intact in case of an unpredictable catastrophic event)...

I agree about the over sold territory specially in the last couple of months. I'm sure everyone notices the pattern is sideways, so it's either a break out could happen anytime or just book orders are getting thiner by the day.

$75---to $8---'sh levels is possible, although trading volume seems to go up, it doesn't mean that investors are still getting back after a flash crash scare. So for those who really have the capital to get inside today, perhaps it's a good decision and then slowly accumulate when the price goes down again in the next one to two weeks.

Bitcoin can stay overbought/oversold for quite a long time. Remember that markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent!

It would offer a DCA opportunity, but nothing more than that. It's bearish to see the price close below the 200EMA on the daily without bouncing off it first. In most cases these movements provide a glimpse of what the longer term trend will look like, so unless we make a massive bounce back above $9300 and close a few daily candles there, there is not much point in pushing a bullish narrative.

I expect the price to plummet to $7000-$7500 which will be my first DCA entry point and from there I will reassess the market's behavior for my next move.

Nothing to do with DCA, after such a violent drop, going long in the sub 8000 area would be one of the highest probability trades you can make for the year, and so it turned out to be the case.

Regardless of long term outlook, the bounce was almost guaranteed, now it's not such a high probability play anymore but I expect the recovery to continue to at least above 9000 USD within the next week...

I usually look to increase my BTC holdings in general, but that is a different mindset from intraday trading activities.

Predicting moves of bitcoin is very hard at this moment. There is just too much uncertainty.

PS. Correct me if I'm wrong but decreasing your dollar cost average will lead you to increasing your bitcoin holdings.