Bitcoin Forum

Here I would like to share my simulations to test Martingale strategy.
The house edge is 1% and bet multiplier in loss case is 2.
The calculations continue until the bet amount is lower than balance.
Hope it is helpful for any one interested in these strategy.
Give your opinions about the results obtained.


Initial balance: 10
Initial bet: 1






Initial balance: 100
Initial bet: 1





Initial balance: 1000
Initial bet: 1

I think we can conclude the best logic might be to quit while you are ahead, I do see the initial incline there but its failing and resulting in a lower balance.   So dont get greedy, take any profit you make early and be on your way seems to be the best idea.
  Dont play just 1 game or 1 strategy, take profit from this and go play a bit of blackjack or something less monotonous then this system.   It cant last to put it briefly.

This theory has been tested many times and even many times on this forum
Yes you might win some money to begin with but longterm you will give it all bck to the house
Still that is a impressive set of graphs you have created and you sound smart enough to know the house wins in the end 

Martingale strategy really works at some point but not a well founded strategy that you can always count on.
The OP made great charts. Is the initial balance that you used in satoshis?
Would be interested if you will start at a much higher level of initial balance. What would be the charts look like?

What opinion/s do you want to hear for this test? These simulations will not really do nothing because aside from that fact that it will end up losing in the end, these movements are inconsistent therefore I don't know what information we are extracting here. No accurate data or even close we can get to somehow beat the house edge even for a short or long-term.

But I appreciate the time and effort you spend here to make these simulations.

OP used other crypto i believe, i think he used DOGECOIN to test those martingale strategy.
The chart obviously will be same with all of those charts on above, you will lose in the end especially in long run no matter how big your balance/bankroll.

The classical martingale is a terrible strategy for even short term activity because you are always looking to recover the initial bet size,
so the wins will be very small compared to the amount risked.

If however you do something like roll to win 10x, and increase 20% on loss, at least the compound effect on a couple of losing streaks might give you a better rate of profit for the short run (if you can catch a few big winners and quit before going bankrupt that is)...

Because only with Dogecoin, he can place a huge amount of coin. I am interested in his simulations, and perhaps, I will try it later, although I always know that the martingale strategy will not work for me in a short time or a long time. But still, it's worth to try for me so I can have another experience using the method. I agree with @STT says that he needs to take any profit he made before and stop it for a while and play again after one hour. Sometimes that is work for me to get another winning ;D

What's the purpose of this test? To prove that martingale can be profitable?

We can make a profit by this method but still all depends on our luck whatever strategy applied.

Starting from first bet, it all relies on luck, therefore, this test just draws your betting history.

You're not going to find a way to win with martingale long term. You can make your own graph and try to predict the profits but ops graph shows a reoccurring trend of the loss of all bankroll so make sure you understand that you could lose everything ln your first series of bets.

I think Martingale method is the most famous, and everyone here, everyone at the beginning did at least once the method
It's incredible when you read about, and the logic is perfect, but when you use in real world, you'll lose, no matter what

The only solution is to stop at a certain point, but it depends on lucky

Yeah right, Martingale is a betting system that is quite well known in world of gambling and trading, but Martingale also has a high risk. Martingale cannot be used as main strategy because it can eat up your balance, it may be good for initial bet but not good for long term. Whatever strategy simulation described @OP, I hope to use another strategy and not just focus on martingale strategy.

Stopping at a certain point is indeed a good way to avoid greed, but there are times when we are on an unlucky day where Martingale devoured all of our balance even though it has stopped for a moment at a certain point.

Exactly, We don't know when the pocket will become empty, but it will finally happen and as charts show, that usually happen very soon.

Yes, The method is not profitable. I made the diagrams to show that to any one likes this strategy.

No difference which cryptocurrency is.
For example when the bet amount is 1 and the initial balance is 1000, we can say bet amount is 1 satoshi and initial balance is 1000 satoshi or bet amount is 1mbtc and initial balance is 1 bitcoin.
This can apply to dogecoin, litecoin, etc. What matters is the rate of bet amount and initial balance.

They can be obtained too. It's a bit time consuming. I had calculated the probability of winning theoretically when the initial balance is 1 bitcoin and your initial bet amount is only 1 Satoshi.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5181132

I repeated the simulations many times to prove what you are saying better and more visible. And I didn't claim that we can beat the house. I proved the opposite.

No, to prove that it's not profitable.

So the first charts basically show that winning is almost guaranteed from 4 bets then the efficacy of the strategy starts to diminish as you increase from 4 and above?
Should people who use this strategy stick to this range(1—4) then quit to start again but still within the range? You could further test this to see if actually works.

Excellent test to show possible results when starting With different balances. You could see how many bets are done and how long it would last. I remember that there are a lot of strategies you could use in betting dice.

No further tests would be required, in my opinion, because you will see that no matter how large your balance is, you can take longer to bust. The real take away for me is that, you need to be aware that once you hit the unlucky streak that could eventually bust you, that's the end of this strategy.

Just like anyone is saying in this topic, it's best to mix and match or adjust to what strategy to be used. Remember that there is no perfect strategy.

P.S. Did you use Seuntjie’s dice bot to your experiment? I hope you put credits into his program. It looks very similar too.

Your method proven alway lose, I personally tested this numerous of times before coming out better way to sustain it, if you know how to work out the following, there will be chance (no more details to be given here):
- Mix of odds.
- Calculate a bet size that: if you win a losing streak at n, the profit after that win help the playing balance sustain one more bet (n+1) taken into account the martingale (standard definition: next bet alway bigger than previous bet), and so on.
- Take a good plan of balance sizing: playing balance = 1/20 total capital willing to lose.
- Adjust of above calculation so that: it hardly reach 1/2 total capital you willing to lose to win a rare streak.
- Targeting 1/10 ratio of profit vs wager (accumulated profit alway = 1/10 total wagered).

Take note of how long "playing balance bursted" and how much remaining capital will be used to win the rare streak aka continue to deposit and keep betting (with constrain of 1/2 total capital used as above). Collect the statistic, you may found out better strategy.

Its not the best logic, it is the only logic. You must quit when you are ahead, or else in the long run you will lose to the house edge no matter what you do. Martingale strategy will give you profit in the long run only if you have a very unusual large balance (like unlimited coins), but why would you gamble in the first place if you had unlimited coins?

All results are in small profit even if you have enough balance compare to having small balance. No matter how you bet there is always losing even trying different martingale strategy. Maybe try to bet a few times then maybe you'll win some profit as show in your post.

Winning is never guaranteed. You might lose all your fund only in few seconds. Charts show that the time of losing is different, You might lose your first 10 or 20 bets streakly. Every thing is possible.

What do you mean starting again? Using Martingale strategy, we are actually starting again several times.

No. I used my own codes.

The house doesn't allow you to win even you use different odds. You can only delay the losing time.

For this, you need to have a big initial amount of bet. That cause you to lose even sooner.

Yes, you are right. But bigger amounts only delay your losing time.

Best advise overall!

Its better to quit while you are still on green and don't tend to stick out that kind of strat.

Images shows that you can really have that upward movement but later on that huge drop will be next.
Ending? you bust up your entire bankroll and deposit again and that's how the cycle continues.

Issue here, the thing is you need 1 sat initially not a very big amount as what you think, including changing betting odds will help betsize increase slower. Ultimate target is: the lower the streak the lesser the win, but as the streak become higher the bigger the win.

I.e (few of my initial bet sizes in sat of my current 24/7 live playing strategy)
Size:     1  1  2  3  4  5  7 10 16 24 36 54 82 126 193 296 456 702 1080     20    16     16     16     16     16   17 ...
Odd: 100  5  5  5  5  5  5   5  5    5   5   5  5     5    5     5     5     5      5   200   200   200   200   200   200 200 ...

You may wonder how to work out but I leave it to your research, a tip is that along with 24/7 LIVE play, profit almost reached total capital to lose (0.86 profit / 1.00 capital / 24, 400,000 bets placed).

Please guys don't quote OP because it takes too much space in the thread or at least remove the pictures when you're doing it.

The simplest conclusion is that martingale gives you a bit of profit in the beginning and the more you have in the bank the harder it is for you to fail and lose everything. Don't start with low bank or you'll have no chance to earn profit but if you are willing to risk a lot of money it's not the worst strategy but it always makes you lose in the end.

No. I am not interested in this strategy nor other strategies since I don't really have a problem gambling for fun. Also, I know that Martingale can be more vicious than other strategies. You double down every time you lose, that would really drain your balance so quickly. I would just stick to fun and run.

Whatever you do, you are going to lose it eventually. So, make a plan with a budget. Don't lose more than you could afford and turn your profit into something visible for you to have satisfaction even if you lose more. And all along have fun and enjoy. The ones who get a taste of it would come back regularly. It's all about fun, if you are being stressed, leave. Remember money is not everything, it comes and goes. It's your health and fitness that's important.

For the Martingale strategy, you really need to have a big bankroll so that you have the balance to double your investment with every lose and if you run out of balance, you will eventually lose all.



Rather than focus on strategies like martingale etc it is better we focus on money management techniques. If we understand how to manage the money and how much to spend every day / every week in gambling, we may not lose much and at the same time gambling will be pleasant and fun for us.

I'm a bit surprised to see there is still people thinks that big bankroll is good for martingale while the fact is that even unlimited bankroll is useless for any gambling strategy including martingale. Mathematically, if you use martingale then you should start from low bet amount, so it takes a longer time to double your investment using martingale while the longer you play the higher chance you'll lose your money. Stop thinking that huge balance will work for martingale as it is absolutely wrong.

Gambling is based on luck and there is no guarantee that you will win even at the beginning.

Higher balance and a low initial bet amount causes you to have to repeat the martingale method more times. However that causes the number of consecutive lose before failing decreases, it causes you to have a lower chance of winning.

How much money do you think is needed? Are 21 millions bitcoins enough?
As you yourself said you will eventually lose all. But note that it will finally happen even of you have all 21 millions bitcoins.

Yes, you can manage your money to not gamble more than you can afford. This only decreases the amount you less if you can overcome greed. But money management cannot overcome the house. The house give your money. Does not matter it's a big money or only a few cents.

Maybe if someone force to do martingale, i think as long they already profit from capital, maybe set target will be good. Like when you already reach 10% of your capital, i think get out and try on next day is better. Because martingale or other strategies, will almost same when ended.