Bitcoin Forum

DO you think we are going to see a recession any time soon, and if yes, will it pump the price of Bitcoin?

I agree, it still isn't regulated, it is still volatile, and most people are still hesitant to use it. Some find it too difficult to understand, others don't trust it because it is new, but in order for people to actually be able to use it as an alternative, all of these issues need to be resolved. And, yes, Bitcoin does seem to be doing its own thing most of the time.

I personally don't know because I'm quite lacking in the economics side of things, but a lot of so called "experts" are saying that a recession in the short-term is bound to happen.

I don't think so. I think it will go down with everything else. This has been discussed multiple times already here on Bitcointalk; look around and read threads.

Ultimately, regardless if a recession will pump the price of bitcoin or not, you're a sick person if you're looking forward to a recession just because your bitcoin holdings might pump in price. Unemployment rates would rise, and that would lead to families being unfed, and a lot more other disastrous consequences.

I'll have to double check when I'm not on my phone and have a bit more time, but I *think* it was this recent Andreas Antonopoulos video where he raised a similar point:

https://youtu.be/15qZu-OHFk0

If memory serves, he said "you'd have to be a sociopath", or words to that effect.  It's probably a thought many of us have briefly considered at some point or another, but yes, it's sick when you actually stop to think about it.

If the fund goes out of the stock market and goes in to Bitcoin due to recession, then it is possible that it can pump the price of Bitcoin.  Since the way for intitutional investment had been made thru Bitcoin futures then there is possibility that those who are affected in stock market may migrate to Bitcoin market taking advantage of the young and potential market.  Aside from that recession also affects a country's monetary value, this may also trigger converting their currency to Bitcoin in order to preserve the value of their money.  That is what I think when recession happens.

Thanks for the opinion. It is definitely not like looking forward to the recession just to gain some easy money from Bitcoin pumps. It is about being prepared and taking some measures. And that's what all people and families should do because at the end of the day the government will screw us all.

Yeah, this video is really good - Andreas definitely knows how to explain things. It is not about being sociopath to earn from Bitcoin while people are suffering but rather taking measures not to suffer. And everyone has the free choice how to act, if the recession is about to come. 

Just like on what been mostly said above theres no correlation of traditional funds to flow out through crypto even if recession happens.

As a traditional investor, I wont easily consider crypto as an option on where I do plan to move my funds out into these kind of cases.
I'm sure that these are the things on what traditional investors on mind.

A recession doesn't just lead to the devaluation of currencies, it generally results in shortage and slow economic growth, this would reduce the amount of money in circulation, ans would ultimately have a negative effect on every sector.
However if trades can push the price of BTC up, it could easily lead to FOMO in the midst of all the chaos and could positively impact the Bitcoin. This would like be a short term effect.

Recessions usually hit when the markets are exuberant and few people see it coming. Right now, everybody seems to be expecting it as evidenced by the loads of threads about "the upcoming recession." So I'm skeptical.

My guess is the markets will respond positively to recent and upcoming QE/rate cut measures. Then we will keep climbing the wall of worry for a while. A couple more years maybe.......which would be good for BTC. All investment assets benefit from money printing and continued market confidence.

Funny, I just wrote pretty much the same thing in another thread--bitcoin isn't a safe-haven asset and I think if a recession hits people aren't going to be rushing to invest in something as volatile as crypto.

As far as whether I think a recession is looming, I'd probably say yes.  We've been in a booming economy and stock market for quite a few years now and I'd say we're overdue for one.  But just because it's been a long time since the last one, that doesn't necessarily mean we're going to see a recession soon.  Right now I just don't know, but I have a sinking feeling that one is coming.  And if you look at the precious metals markets, it does appear that investors are fleeing to safety.  On the other hand, bitcoin is also booming--so it's hard to tell.

What I also wrote in that other thread was that bitcoin was born at the beginning of one of the worst recessions we've ever seen, and it thrived through it.  My guess is that if another one hits, it'll do OK.

Recession has happened in the past and it has little or no effect on the price of bitcoin. Accepted that one of the factors of that led to the emergence of bitcoin was the great recession of 2008/2009 but after then several countries have been in economic turmoil having used their own hands to enter into recessions by making some costly economic decisions and bitcoin effect at the time was not significant enough to be able to attach to it to that.

The point is, the line between bitcoin and the fiat economy at this time are two far apart to begin to draw some relationship between the two and individuals already involved in both market are not enough or the volume not significant enough to cause such comparison to be made. In summary, even if there is a recession in the world, it does not mean increase in bitcoin price as  I don't see companies now keeping their funds in crypto or paying their vendors or suppliers using crypto.

I'd expect that overall a recession will decrease the price of Bitcoin because, although some people will use Bitcoin as safe haven, more will liquidate their Bitcoin investments for using the fiat in other purposes - from survival to buying dying businesses.

It's very hard to predict when the recesion will start and it what scope will affect which country.
Still Bitcoin hasn't direct connection to traditional financial and economy system so it's hard to tell if and in which extend recesion will influence the price.
Although in scenario when recesion will drive people to buy more Bitcoin as alternative to fiat might pump the demand and as a consequences the price as well.

That is if they are also worried with gold. But I doubt they will.
Traditionally speaking, it will still be the safest way for money to be kept in a good umbrella.
Although, when it goes back there could be a lot of losses if you are to buy back late. Of course they will sell instantly specially those who can have the news early.

Now, if they have the doubt with gold then bitcoin could be the next escape.

The ongoing global recession is not gonna make any big impact upon the cryptocurrency network. If there is dump in the market of cryptocurrency, then it could've got related to the global recession. Here, we've been experiencing stabilized move which means the market is independent.

Over the falling week there is big expectation with price getting pumped based on the Bakkt launch. Further the speculation will be upon the year end growth. Then it gets into whether the growth of the year will be carried forward. This way bitcoin will be always speculative and independent from external sources.

Yes, but it will not affect bitcoin's price.

Bitcoin will continue to follow its four-year cycle (with a small possibility of a five-year cycle) where there will be one full bull year and one full bear year. The price will follow the log scale.

I dont believe there will be the massive adoption some people expect. Bitcoin will continue as a digital currency and store of value, with speculation driving its price, but it will not be adopted by the masses.

I see a lot of hatred and vitriol against bitcoin outside of this forum, so Im not convinced we will see massive adoption by the average Joe. We will probably see adoption by financial institutions, banks and even governments (as a State investment, not as a official currency) which will drive the price higher, and decrease the influence of the whales.

More intelligent, well-informed people will be buying bitcoin, while the masses will suffocate under a global crysis. This could lead to a dangerous situation for most holders, so keeping a low profile is fundamental if you plan to hold it for a long time.

You've got it all figured out, huh? Sounds like everything is already set in stone! :P

At most we have 2 data points, which is way too little to draw these conclusions. From a statistics perspective this is a wild guess. I'm trying to keep a more open mind. I don't think any of us has any idea what the chart will look like in 10-20 years. Chart analysis is heavily hampered by recency bias.

That's why I would be careful assuming Bitcoin is limited to its past log trend. I think that assumption will convince lots and lots of early adopters to sell ridiculously early.

Recession usually comes with people not spending too much money because they lack the money to spent, which means during recession people do not have enough money to buy bitcoin and that should result with a dump in bitcoin price not a pump.

Maybe I am missing some points here but if a countries economy is not doing well and people of that country has to not only spend all their money to survive but also make a debt to continue living then those people will not have money to put into bitcoin, I am in one of those countries right now and if not for me making profits in bitcoin I wouldn't hold any, I would sold all of it and try to make up the lack of money with crypto. People I see all around me make enough salary to barely survive let alone have extra savings to purchase bitcoins.

The Recession could be bad for the price and may drop it, And in my opinion this coming holiday season will be crucial for bitcoin but it will not drop that far enough it will still have that safe price of $10,000 and $9000 USD but I am not seeing the price to pump until the end of this year but lets just wait because I am seeing that the price can still recover and pump by 2020 next year, I can't tell if what month it might be, But Bitcoin always do that kind of pump thing so we can surely be sure that will happen.

I can't say if there will be recession but if there happen to be any, it is suppose to pump the price of bitcoin. People will likely keep their money in bitcoin and demand to buy will go high because many won't sell and the law of supply and demand will  be the order of the day.

If other markets are hit and the same people are liquidating all their assets (including crypto) then I think there is no industry that won't be affected and that includes the crypto industry. In a recession there is really no safe haven that is built to stand it because what is affected is the people around it not just the market within. If a lot of people are needing some cash on their hands right now then there is really no choice to go but to liquidate all their assets. The turning point in any recession is of course if you have an extra cash lying around for investing, buying it in the recession is good but of course the profits will have to wait after the recession is over. I just don't see in any kind of scenario where only the crypto market is bullish during the recession.

I do agree with what extasie has to say whether a cycle exist or not there is really no guarantee that a cycle will still continue to happen with a lot of various external factors happening involved with the market and for this instance the recession. If a recession would take place there is really no immune market we can call as a "safe haven" as all markets would be affected with price increases of goods, unemployment, decrease and economy all of it will affect every people who needs cash to live daily. The recession will affect all and I doubt any kind of cycle will continue as long as we are in it.

If nobody wants to sell their Bitcoin because of its market recession, how it could help to move the price? Buying and selling are what we need in order to uplift the price, if we wanted to have a high price then never sell our BTC in cheap. It is not the market recession's that could help, we only need more crypto users and adopters to make the demand much higher, there we can see the price will move higher.

actually during a recession people do not liquidate their "assets" in fact they start gathering more because during a recession fiat is losing its value (buying power) so if you convert it to assets you can save yourself from becoming poorer. it is not so much about needing cash in hand, it is more about surviving.

but the thing is, that people start going towards safer assets and abandon those with higher risks. for example during a recession since companies are losing, 99% of them go down so people sell the stocks of those companies and maybe some go into that 1% that is rising (just like 2008 recession and the handful of stocks that actually went up).

in all of this, bitcoin is considered a high risk asset but at the same time because of its design and the fact that it has never been connected to any other market and also because it was created out of the previous recession, there is a very good chance that it will be one of the few things that gains value as fiat tanks.

I heard many times about recession and thus far I haven't see that event is happening. Indeed, if the recession comes the investor will turn up their money to the place that can be trusted as a safe-heaven asset such as gold AFAIK.

But I don't thinking that the investor will choose bitcoin as their place to store money. Most of them will only see a gold as their purpose since the gold price is not volatile and they assume that gold is a safe place rather then bitcoin. I don't hope too much against recession because there is some fundamental factor who can make bitcoin meet increasing price.

Economic expansion and the monetary base are two separate things though they tend to be related because FIAT currency has fractional reserves and expands greatly in line with business growth.    How this effects crypto is going to vary because its not a direct link but if monetary standards become tighter then expect the price for BTC to be lower.
    The reason why there is less money available during a recession is also because people no longer have an excess to save or invest elsewhere, simply they must pay the bills that allow them to eat  and live under a solid roof so we become more restricted to a solid only economy.
  Luxury goods obviously suffer at this time and its debatable if Bitcoin would or not.   The OP question is opposite to common thinking, if a recession likely lowers the price of oil then BTC also seems likely to most people.

Nah, I dont think so.
If we are talking crypto currencies as their fall back option only then I bet they will putting it with a stable coin.
It is the safer way for them and this investors mind set are more of safety first.
They dont go for larger risk and something which came out from thin air.

It is pretty sure people don't want such a market recession to happen instead to be preferred for having the existed price.
This is not a thing that could help the market recovery, it only makes it down as many investors lost their courage as well. We all that way far from the very beginning and the prices if high and we feel better if we make it stabilize rather than of turning back.

Money gain value during recesion. Houses and land loses value. Stocks loses value. Cars loses value. If everthing lose value in money that makes value of money stronger and not weaker.

One of my former trading mentors had a theory about BTC. He called it a "Veblen Good." (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/veblen-good.asp)

It's true that Bitcoin's limited supply makes it extremely "exclusive" when price is exponentially rising so I'm interested to see his theory tested in the next recession. Like you said, luxury goods suffer during recessions because of a lack of excess capital. I believe BTC will suffer as well.

Depends on the reason of recession. People do not remember why recessions happen, they remember the 2008 and the banking crisis and they think that could be the only reason why a countries economy could go very bad. Just to give a simple example just last year S&P went down a lot because of China trade wars not because of banks, in previous years around 2001 there was one because of currency instability in certain countries for printing too much.

There are tons of reasons why recession happens and what will happen to bitcoin depends on the reason of it, if it is a reason that makes fiat worthless then yeah bitcoin will go up, if it is a reason that makes governments weaker than it may not be related to bitcoin after all. I personally think that there are more options that doesn't change bitcoin price then the ones that affects it.

Global recession? Not any time soon imo. We have seen some countries already in-or on the verge of recession, struggling to raise their annual GDP such as in Venezuela, Argentina, Brazil, and some has recovered such as Germany, Italy, UK, Japan.
According to The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/sep/25/global-recession-a-serious-danger-in-2020-says-un) news, "Weaker growth in both advanced and developing countries means the possibility of a global recession in 2020 is a clear and present danger, the UN has warned.".
However, Joseph Stiglitz (Nobel winner in economics) said; the world economy began a severe slowdown, but there will be no crisis.

If during a recession fiat money loses value, then commodities like gold and bitcoin are more likely to get more demand and value as happened in Venezuela, it has been proven.

Bitcoin can act as a safe investment haven in case of recession just like gold. More than a currency, it act as a store of value. Bitcoin has inbuilt deflation and is not under any regulatory authority which will keep is away from any affect of recession. It will not behave according to the market. Just like what happened Zimbabwe and Venezuela, people jumped to cryptos as a safe haven when hyperinflation stuck them.

The timing of your thread was spot on as the market started tumbling after that, you cannot call that as a recession but it is a small correction as the price was not having any direction for a long time and then the BAKKT was launched and the hype we had till that time popped and the market started going down. We will see a pump in the market after the halving, invest your money when the market is down and hold for a long time till the market start to pump hopefully by the end of next year.