Bitcoin Forum

It's easy guys, what we are watching right now is what happens when a big mining farm quits.

Hash rate drop from 98 to 67: https://www.blockchain.com/es/charts/hash-rate

A big amount of bitcoins sold: https://bitcoinwisdom.io/markets/bitfinex/btcusd

So, what do you think, are you agree with my theory? or i miss something?

*This is just speculation, i don't have any proof to verify my theory...

But it doesn't make sense for such a big mining farm to just quit, isn't it? What's the rationale behind? And we are talking about what 1 million or to a stretch 2 million mining equipment suddenly being shutdown by the people behind?

The only reason I can think of it they are going out drastically is to move their farms somewhere else, but the timing though, specially after the Bakkt launched, and they wouldn't take out everything in one moved, just saying.

Nice speculation, but it's still a speculation. while we can't immediately say for sure why the market is badly bleeding and still continue to slid. I was even thinking it's part of a cycle that could signal a bull run.

I don't know how valid that speculation is, but I'm pretty sure it is more likely that the crash is just a byproduct of the sudden rise in price from 3,000 to 10,000.

Market needs time to consolidate.

Dumping on the day of bakkt launching sounds like a poor decision to me if they did quit on mining. Unless they plan to buy back of course and that would make sense. 

Has this been done before?

you can not make this statement unless you can back it up with undeniable proof that it was indeed a "big mining farm" that quit. otherwise you are the victim of the FUD that the media has been spreading after the drop was already on the way just to get the panic going more.

hashrate fluctuations happen all the time. the problem is that you can't really measure hashrate, all these numbers are an estimate based on the time between the blocks and the difficulty which will only readjust every 2 weeks!

Why should any trader care what the hash rate does? Never in my life have a heard any trading-focused discussion talk about mining. They barely noticed the mega high fee period.

And are we sure that's wasn't a stat measured in a faulty manner? Even if it were accurate most of it has now popped back.

Any sizeable mining farm will have OTC buyers knocking down their door. No way do they need to go anywhere near an exchange.

That is the same sentence i read it last year

A big amount of bitcoins sold

same as i read when the btc start drop last year, i think this true.

where's your evidence



that's not evidence of any such thing



exchanges have published false volume data in the past, there is no way to confirm the truth of their figures. Trusting the data is the only option, and it's unwise to do so



this is the only correct statement you've made, you have no idea what you're talking about otherwise

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more than "most of it", the next difficulty adjustment (measured over 2 weeks of blocks, not 2 hours) is currently predicted to be a +6% increase


whole thing is a load of BS

http://savenewport.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/wrong-trump-1-660x330.png
1. Hasrate has recovered. Was it the buyer of the equipment, who switched the machines on again?
2. For every seller, there is a buyer. Never forget...

#1 There was no hashrate drop. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5187273.msg52547375#msg52547375
Anyone who thinks there was a drop 100% flat out does not understand crypto mining in general or how bitcoin works.

#2 It's a commodity slump, happens all the time. Let me put it this way. You have 10 of product "X" does not matter what it is, for now lets call the product Dave
So sitting in a corner you have 10 Dave they are worth $10000 each with a little volatility in price but for the last few months more or less they are $10000

So for whatever reason you need to sell a Dave to get cash, so you sell a Dave and get your $10000. Now someone else who also has a collection of Dave also needs money.
So they sell their Dave. But since you just sold yours the market is a little soft so they only get $9500 per Dave, but they need the $10000 so they sell 1.0525 Dave to get the full $10000. The market gets a bit softer. The next person who sells needs to sell 1.075 Dave to get the $10000 and so on until the market comes to an agreement on the new Dave price.

Some people who don't understand mining might have also sold because of #1 above.

Adding to the fun it's the end of the month / end of the quarter and people and businesses have bills due. So there is probably a little extra selling going on anyway so people can get cash. If it's a small amount say .075 getting $626 instead of $750 is not great. But, if you bought it back in January when BTC was $4000 you still got more then 2x your investment so you still win.

This is how the market works.

-Dave ( who is not for sale, unless you are Cameron Diaz she can buy me ;D )

where's the proof it dropped?

the hashrate and the rate at which blocks are found are not the same thing

the drop could easily by explained by plain and simple statistical variability, especially because there was no sustained drop in block solving rate. It was a bit slow for a couple of hours, no more no less ::)



where's the proof that happened? there is none, you're piling one speculation on top of another, both of which have no foundation

You might be right since leaving the market with a huge amount of holdings can really affect the price of bitcoin. But honestly, its too impossible to know the correct reason why because bitcoin is available on so many countries. Many says BAKKT is the reason, whales manipulating the market and so on.

Please explain to me a reason. Who benefits from creating Bitcoin's pump to crash it then out?

I may not have enough knowledge about mining but I am not convinced that theres a huge mining farm who quit. If that company decided to quit, It must have been sold to another company. They dont just quit and shut down everything.
Anyway, the most precise explanation in regard with the recent price drop is because of the massive sell off. We not have definite idea why, but It just happened that traders rode the downward momentum.

To verify my theory the hash rate should stay down, and as you say, it has recovered, so, this proves my theory it's wrong.

I was trying to find a relation between the hash rate drop and the price crash, but looks like they were two different things. On this point, no one can explain the hash drop or the price crash. Only time will tell us who was behind it.

Crash it happen suddenly without we know when is bad moment will come, always protect and ready when bitcoin or altcoin with lower price and always stand by to sell or to buy.

Some people don't understand sarcasm, even when it is put right in their face. You will learn it one day, Sheldon.

FYI: I called the entire theory bullshit.

Good that you acknowledge the fact that the hash rate and the price crash are not dependent on each other. While BAKKT 'may' be the reason behind the crash, it's not certain until we get the confirmation for the same.
It might be that the whales are trying to manipulate the market or it may just be a price correction since the price was at $10k for a long time. Time will tell us what had actually happened.

Your theory could be a reason for this huge downfall. However I think there is a completely different reason behind this decrease in the price. I think the whales can be behind this.

Wait wait wait, so how many Daves does it take to buy a bitcoin? and where could one buy some of these $10,000 Daves?

Many traders sold the disappointing trading volume of Bakkt and add to that the fud about the hashrate drop which actually happens occasionally and the triangle traders are watching at. It is a confluence of these factors.

I don't know about the mining farm quitting, but I suppose it's possible that could influence the price somewhat.  One thing I'm definitely seeing is a slowing down of confirmations on the blockchain.  I just bought a small amount of btc and those confirmations are taking far longer than they have been.

As for the second thing, I think it's obvious there's been a lot of selling in the past couple of days.  Since there hasn't been any bearish news that I know of, the only thing driving bitcoin's price is buying and selling, i.e., market forces.  Right now there are more sellers than buyers (though I've no idea why).  Maybe people bought bitcoin in advance of Bakkt's launch and it isn't turning out to be the big thing they thought it would....who knows.  I'm not one for price movement explanations, since it's usually just blind guesswork that doesn't really matter anyway.

Probably not, but I haven't read any details about what exactly happened.  Was there a government law passed somewhere?  I can't imagine mining suddenly became unprofitable.

Okay, I guess we know already it was not about a big mining farm, and some people even say that there was no hash rate drop (even though there is one if you look at blockchain.com data). Not only the hash rate is back to normal (if it went down), the price is not back to normal, so the correlation clearly does not exist. So what could it be that made Bitcoin's price decrease rather significantly... The only thing I can think of that could affect it is Bakkt. Maybe it's because of the disappointment in it, maybe, quite the opposite, people quit trading BTC directly and instead prefer the futures contracts.

I don't believe the big mining farm which quitted was the reason behind this crash because what most experienced crypto price analysis predicted during the time when the Chinese are planning to shut down mining companies was that there will be a surge in the price of bitcoin if the Chinese shut down. But I believe this current crash was the normal dump in price which usually happens before the year of bitcoin halving in was the exact thing that happened in 2015 and early 2016 but the Bakkt futures also help the crash either.

I have no details with that as well, but as per the OP's theory," a big mining farm quits", I dont think it would affect the price movement. Because in the first place, a company who decided to quit farming (I cant find any obvious reason why, and I am also wondering how mining became unprofitable specially with a huge mining farm ) may not suddenly shut down its operation, instead they will find buyers ( Im not also sure about the legalities, because it will depend on the area/government) to turn over the units to continue the operation. Any company doesnt want to quit without making any profits. So, with my theory, there was no shutting down or suspension of operation of the mining rig that could possibly make a negative impact to the crypto currency market, as mining farm continue to run simultaneously in the process of selling the farm until it is successfully turned over to the next handling company.
Just my thoughts about why I was not convinced by the "big mining farm quits" and made a negative impact to the prices in the market. Instead, massive selling do, just like your second thought.

Your theory is close to the truth. For some reason, a large mining farm could stop mining Bitcoins. It could also be an ordinary correction against the background of the recent growth of Bitcoin from the level of 3k dollars to 10k.

I think it was a collective attempt from some rotten apples that caused this. A guy like Craig Wright might have had some bitcoins that he needed to sell to pay for the court settlement and he then decided to do this on the day that Bitcoin would have celebrated a big event like the Bakkt warehouse launch to spoil the party.

This might have triggered a panic sell ripple affect in the market and a significant drop in the price. It might be that or some more sinister Fiat plot to dump loads of coins to scare institutional traders not to use the Bakkt offering. <I think a 20% drop will scare a lot of those traditional investors>  >:(

Well, there will always be speculations and theories once something drastic happened relative to Bitcoin or cryptocurrency but without solid evidence (and this may not be coming soon) backing then these are just ideas good for discussions and nothing more. In the next coming weeks, this will just be forgotten and buried under new events that took place in the marketplace. Only the devil knows what happened, really!

I'm also among the ones that think that you are fetching too far... one thing we need to know from past experience, and especially when dealing with crypto is that you can't fully trust any stats without checking a bit deeper...
(stats comming from exchanges are not to say the least...funny)
It is a theory... like so many others, in my point of view I gave up understanding BTC charts... they are just charts from a relatively small market  ;)

Perhaps you’re right, but it seems to me that everyone was waiting for the price to fly up after the opening of trading on Bakkt, but it turned out that there wasn’t and people started selling BTC.

Of course, investors will do. They are the one who played this market trend. They just want to catch those panic seller who sells their BTC during the bear season and they sell it back when they saw the market slightly recovers. In some reasons why whales remain profitable because they have plan this already, they formulate bad news just to start FUDs and makes market players go crazy.

Those new adopters could easily be caught by this kind of scheme.

I see this crash happened due to whale's action,when everyone thought that the prices will boom after BAKKT launched then whale think in the other way so they dumped their coins.

Or this is a decent dump before entering the final quarter of 2019 to bring more bullish movement.

Maybe you're right
Need to check all available information. But your theory is interesting.

I read an article who explain that the hash rate for mining bitcoin was up to 100 if I'm not mistaken a few days ago (maybe it was monday) which is mean if I use your theory the price bitcoin will up at that time but it was not happen. Because when the hash rate getting up then the amount of miner will increase which is mean there is many people who want to buy bitcoin (CMIIW).

I don't know exactly the caused bitcoin price going down so far, and it is make me wonder why the decreasing price is happening when there is a good news come i.e bakkt has been launched their service. At least the bakkt service always be waiting by cryptocurrencies user because it will make they confident to believe that bitcoin is really safe place to store money.

whatever the reason is i still dont agree with your theory as this is over due but everyone just want a pump and pump coin with no decline which is not in any way possible cos the dump is what gives momentum too for the next rally in the pump move . so i dont think their moving out of production cause it moelre son every one has been looking toward bakkrt launch for pump but the whales use that to dump on those who buy to get more profit . my opinion though.

You said you can explain this crash but you also said that it's just your speculation with no evidence. You can't explain things if you don't have proof or evidence to your argument. Or you should've put small explanations to it since your title said, you could explain. However, your reason could be one of the reason why, or even not. But let's just continue, lifw gows on. Though it crash, we're still here, engaging ourselves ith bitcoin

I personally believe the cause of the constant dump downwards of Bitcoin is due to bitcoin futures. Ever since one could predict the price of Bitcoin without owning Bitcoin came to fruition, this had the huge impact on the price and created the previous crash and now we just had a small bull season and now we are crashing back down again for another prolonged bear season. So now only those who trade with the leverage sites and just short the market downwards, are the ones making money now in this field. This is now not a time to hold cryptos long term anymore, only those who trade Bitcoin in futures, actually makes any money nowadays. Also those of course who bought very cheaply and are just selling on the highs.

It is not even a bit close! How can hash rate be responsible for someone dumping millions of dollars worth of BTC on an exchange. Are you saying that some group of investors saw the hash rate go down and sold? And then the hashrate went up but they did not buy back. Why would someone base their trading on hash rate?

Hash rate is going up and down on regular basis and there was a very similar hash drop in August but without such a big coin dump. You're looking for patterns where there are none.

I believe so and has nothing to do with these hash dropping and whichever mining firm is that.

Whales are shaking for those traders who had bough BTC during the private offer in the first days of BAKKT. They dumped BTC to see if there is something to draw out from those  finance firms who bought at $10k. These whales will panic once these firms buy more instead of selling in panic