Bitcoin Forum

I read of someone transferring a billion dollars worth of bitcoin and some people speculated that if it hits exchanges, it would cause bitcoin to drop.Do you guys think this is the cause or maybe it's just a bear trap?

There is no reason to believe that the two events are related. People like to speculate about all kinds of things.

I don't think that whatever transfer is responsible for the downward we are currently seeing. I still think is a retracement that has been going on since two weeks now. Some hodlers might be dumping out of fear of not loosing their capital but to hodl and buy in will be fine.

Calm down for a while and don't trust any news if you don't do your research. I don't think that will relate to each other. Although it is related, we cannot prove it. What I see now is the price down deeper than we can expect, but I am sure the price can increase higher soon. You don't have to worry if the price now is down because you can buy another bitcoin and hold it until the price can increase later.

We are creating too much links to everything that sounds possible, however far-fetched they may appear. I have read speculations on the price drop connecting it to Bakkt, drop in hashrate, quantum computers, billion dollars worth of BTC transfer, manipulation, and so on. At first, I went with the flow and read more about them but it seems they are all equally unsure about their theories.

The only certain reason for me was that there were more sell orders than buy orders.

It became a belief now that whenever a huge transaction was sent to the exchanges, this will cause already a dump. And this is bringing a lot of pressure and fear to the small traders out there because it helps to push the price lower.

Never forget that bitcoin is a speculative asset so expect that from time to time there will be speculations everywhere.

You mean moving billions of dollar worth of bitcoin? That's been happening way back so I don't think that it has something to do with the recent crash. This is just FUD, a classic one, I think you are fairly new in the game so I will just advise you not to panic or even believed everything you hear or read specially coming from social media or even crypto related websites.

I didn't hear about this case actually, could you provide us with a link or an attachement to have a good read about the subject?
The case happened when i was at HuobiGlobal watching ETH price and then, i've seen it turn into bloody red, lol it was like a nightmare. I heard that the dump happened because of Fuds and somehow the no-fomo. Peoples are greedy sometimes, they have the fear and that's why they lose. I suspect that this dump took place because of the fear, btc still and will always remain a good and a valuable technologie, peoples will buy it later, lol.

I don't know what is the cause of this crypto prices but I guess this could be the work of bear market. If it is just a transfer of bitcoin from one exchange to another, it's fine. This thing is happening not just this time. Especially when there is somebody that is arbittrading.

Take a look at a 5 year chart.

Last time i posted pictures on here the imageserver got outruled by some moderator fuck!

The bitcoin scene is doomed to selfdestruct. It's all in the run up.

yeah they do always want to talk on what will happen when no one really knows what will happen to the price, huge transaction can give huge effect on bitcoin that is right but always remember that in every transaction consist of "buyer" and "seller" and not only seller.

Even if those 2 events are related and a billion dollars of BTC are being sold right now causing this price drop, in the long term this is great:

100,000 BTC are being sold to all the bitcoiners that are buying and dollar cost averaging this dip.

Money goes from weak hands (or hands that have way more than that and are just offsetting risk, who cares anyway) to stronger hands.

Most likely, they are now trying to earn on new traders by artificially lowering the price so that newcomers sell their bitcoins at a low price, and other experienced traders make a profit.

When the Bitcoin price starts to go back, everyone suddenly starts to bring out bad rumors. When it starts to rise, everyone presents their new predictions. We're used to it now. Calm down. Bitcoin will rise again!

May be yes, may be not... These two events may be related or may be really separate processes. But what I would like to admit - the price will be always falling up and down. It is the rule of the every type of market, and cryptocurrency and Bitcoin itself are not the exception. So what we have is just to keep in mind this and be attentive to all the changes in order to react in time.

Well, while whales are known for market manipulation, that doesn't mean that investors need to fall for it. People should have learned a long time ago that you need to be patient with crypto, and often wait for years to get the right opportunity. HODLing is the answer for BTC.

I read that too. This is nothing but speculation, if people want to sell all their bitcoin holdings, that is fine, it's their money and they should not be stop from doing so. We will be glad to buying cheap too. One thing is sure, bitcoin is the future the earlier we believe that the better it quenches our fear of falling prices.

Whenever the price of Bitcoin is tanking, people naturally are looking for anything they can ascribe the dip and this time around it is the same thing. People are fond of speculating so anything they can find that can fit the bill will be use as the reason. Now, whether that transfer did cause this dip to me it does not matter because it is just a normal transaction. Bitcoin is volatile cryptocurrency and not a stable coin therefore we should be expecting something like this. Now, having said that, we should remember that Bitcoin had been proclaimed dead many times over but all the time the King of Cryptos always came back and resurrected.

More specifically no one knows what is the reason for falling prices but I think no one cares about the reason, for every one reason could be different. But I would say people are afraid to hold above 10k so they keep on selling every time it goes there and now they sell a lot to bring it down. It is cheap and now more people will buy it.

Did you ever found out why BTC skyrocketed to 19k suddenly in a span of two months? Did you ever found out that why btc dipped all the way down to 3k even after touching 19k? No one knows the answer what i can feel and sense is pure manipulation of market and nothing else. Whatever people may say that SEC decision to delay futures might have caused the problem. The technicals clearly show that an unhealthy bear move has just started and let's see where does it takes us.

Much also depends on your timeframe.  If you are talking about weeks or months vs years, your perspective will be different.  Anyone who is buying/selling with the week or month perspective will probably be disappointed at some point.

The speculation of price is only depends in market you also see that in market the a lot of tokens prices increases or decreases regularly that does not create any effect to fall down the price of BTC & other alt coins if you compare the value of BTC in one or two year later then you see that the value of BTC increases as a amount of time.

This sort of rumors are what causes panic in cryptocurrency .
There is even no official link to any website that state so or carried such news.
Moreover, if anyone trade their BTC which happens to be much in number, its not necessary suppose to cause panic. Bitcoin are meant to be owned, transact, used or spend. No one has the right to tell anyone how to spend their coins because of the fear of price decrease.

Well, bakkt might be the reason for all of this dump but I could be wrong since it might be a coincidence also. Dropping of hashrate before bakkt was going to launch, these two were coincidentally happens right after someone speculated a rise of the Bitcoin price yet it goes the other way around.

I do not believe for anything like a bear trap. If you are a trader, then you should look for the signals thorough charts. Those person who are expert in Technical analysis can very well predict the market next moves.

This recent slide in the price of Bitcoin is just one of the many occurrences with this cryptocurrency, that is if we have to study its 10-year history. Bitcoin students are certain that this is just another volatile days for Bitcoin and that soon things can be on reverse once again. Personally, I don't care about what can be the real reasons behind this slump because soon this will eventually be forgotten and people will be concerned with other things related to cryptocurrency or otherwise. I also believe that in every dip, there is the best opportunity to buy and hold more. So guys, what are we waiting for...lightning?

This crash came together with a hashrate drop.

Probably the hashrate drop came some hours before the crash. What does this means? It means the miners turned off their engines, like they did in November 2018. But at that time, bitcoin took two weeks to dive to 3k. Now it took just some hours.

The chart below shows similarities between the two crashes:

https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FNvinrG4.png&t=605&c=3DMjRZ1rZgCsLg

If it had fallen to $3400 in a matter of 9 months, now it could fall to the double of this value in 1/3 of this time. The bottom remains as $6800, after a mini-bull market of 3 months. I dont believe the price can drop any further.

Was the price manipulated? Yes, and I believe the miners are doing it, for the sake of distribution of new minted coins. Bitcoin is still in a mixed period of distribution and accumulation. Remember that the ATH of 2013 was reached in 2016, so the ATH of 2017 might be reached only in 2020. We could only hope it would be achieved this year, but bitcoin have sudden drops and fast rises. Also I dont discard a connection between miners, whales and futures speculation.

You will have to be patient and wait at least two years to see some profit. Dont buy into bear trolling. These guys hate bitcoin and are here only for fiat cash.

Most of the beginners are buy more Bitcoin in this dip, so no one is waiting for lighting at the same time some investors are move to stable coins it will make silence on this week. Some peoples are waiting for libra projects because of marketing so we must spread the potential of this project. I think end of the year again it will cross the 13k USD so we will buy and hold, this make awesome profit.

This is bitcoin after all, sometimes it goes up (we have all seen it when it went up to 20k and also recently in 2019 when it went from 3k to 13k) but sometimes it goes down (same with 20k going to 3k and 13k going to under 8k now), so we should not be really looking for reasons.

I don't understand the logic when people try to find a reason for bitcoin to go down other than people literally sold bitcoin, that is the only reason we need, when people sell bitcoins the price goes down, if more bitcoins bought than sold than it goes up. That is how the market works and it has always worked that way as well. If you want to find a reason that nobody has figured out and say "this is why bitcoin went down" and be known as the person who figured it all out than go ahead but you will always fail.

I think what is happening right now is called market correction. Whenever the bitcoin price reaches certain level, the market correction will follow to stabilize the price. This is not a new scenario it happens quite often.

2 days after the crash, there was a difficulty adjustment. the difficulty rose by 7.31%. and so far, the difficulty is slated to rise again by 4.64% on the next adjustment. https://btc.com/stats/diff

so......what hashrate drop? ???


i don't get it. why would miners manipulate prices lower in order to distribute (at lower prices)? that seems counter-intuitive.

There was a sudden drop in September 22nd, right before the mini-crash. But it fixed itself quickly.

It can be checked here: https://www.blockchain.com/charts/hash-rate

It looks like someone was wanting to repeat the crash that happened in 2018, but it didnt go well.

Or could it be just a strategy or someone is fooling around.
Why dont you give the link to wherever he put this statement?
Maybe we could somehow read it and see the legitimacy of the writer.

There are too many speculations happening around and it had been chaos specially for newbies.
You might want to get away from those and trust your instincts with this. Better, trust bitcoin.

Hey, that's what this section is all about.

OP, the total market cap of bitcoin is $150.3 billion right now and I'm not sure who would own billions of dollars worth of it.  However, if an amount that huge got dumped on the market all at once, you better believe it would sink the price.  That's why I don't think anyone would be stupid enough to do it--they'd be trying to sell bitcoin at falling prices, and that's not smart.

Yeah, I guess.  It seems more like a normal dip to me, even though bitcoin lost like 20% in value within days.  That kind of volatility just doesn't surprise me anymore.  I usually associate corrections with drops when the price of something is going steadily up.  That wasn't the case with bitcoin when it happened.  It was stalled out at around $10k for quite a while.

i don't think there really was. there was a period of several hours where few blocks were found---totally normal per bitcoin mining's probabilistic distribution and happens all the time.

a couple sites like blockchain.info use shitty metrics to estimate hash rate that only account for the target interval over a very short time period---not really indicative of the actual statistical mining distribution. so they misinterpreted this hours-long period as a huge drop in hash rate.

if you look at the chart you posted, you can see a very similar event in mid july. do you really think the hash rate dropped 27% over 7/16-7/17 then rose 50% the next 2 days? that seems doubtful. more likely another case of bad estimation. there's a reason why blockchain.com's hash rate chart looks so incredibly volatile---bitcoin's difficulty adjusts every 2016 blocks rather than every 144. blockchain.com's estimates are even worse than the latter because they go by 24 hour timestamp rather than # of blocks.

You can see the idea though that whenever big amount of BTC goes to an exchange, normally are going to be dumped or perhaps will be used to buy some altcoins or USDT. Speculations are like rumors which has tiny bits of truths to it. Anyone will see whichever what they wanna see and falling prices are normally the cause is dumping which will lead them to believe manipulations.

Seems logical but how do you exactly can tell when someone is moving big amounts of crypto into a exchange? Is there any public data available to tell this or it's just guessing?

If this value is true then probably this will be one of the reason of why bearish market continue. 1 Billion dollar is a very huge money that it can really manipulate the market movement either to make it fall or to make it soar high therefore If it was used to buy Bitcoin then maybe the price is now $15k as more people will be attracted to invest  but its looks like the reverse as we move deeply down to $8K because more peope did panic.

If there is no valid evidence then that is not true news. Everyone can make a lot of news about bitcoin. But make sure the news has valid proof like proof of transfer, etc. There are many speculation about why bitcoin falls. Right now it seems like investors are really panicking so they sell their bitcoin and cause prices to fall. But soon Bitcoin will definitely rise again.

Yeah and i don't think a lot of people would take the time to go through the btc transactions and track down the wallet address where that came from. It's not going to chance any facts and events that have already happened. Of course an amount like that would definitely cause an immediate effect on bitcoin's value. But it happens everytime. It's not a special case anymore. It's not going to do us anything if we know which single transaction caused a pump or a dump.

There is too much speculation, too much.

Whenever an event such as price rises or price falls occur, there are numerous reasons for it and though there might be a couple of 'main' reasons the truth is it is almost impossible to work out all permutations to find out what triggered the event whether it was a fall in price or a rise.

You should just probably reseaech it yourself and determine by yourself whether to believe or not. Some news can seem to be connected but are really far. You can't just put one and one and call them connected all of a sudden without any justifications that could logically be derived from the news they have. Besides, news or fake news, you should try and read up more about them and still decide for yourself. Thats how those famous persons do it, they just get on the news cause of their fame. You don't really have to stick to their ideals since you have your own.

We can't help it many people speculates because they want to see great thing happen but the fact there is we cannot really tell on what will happen in future, But we can have an indicator on what will gonna happen on future and we must catch it although it's not 100% but we might gonna ride with fud news and earn with it.

Well, I think the people that invested in bitcoin for the BAKKT launch are the ones dumping for profits. We all know that things like that happened in the past. Whenever there is a major launch whether a coin or exchange that creates a market bull run of either bitcoin or ethereum. Once the product or coin is launched, then it is dumping season for short-term investors. 

keep in mind that there is a big difference between speculation and random nonsense FUD online. speculation is when you are analyzing the market, fundamentals,... and trying to find things that actually affected the market. everything else like the one he is talking about (someone moving large amounts of bitcoin around) is just bullshit there to scare newbies into selling their small amounts of bitcoins!

You make a valid point. There are clear distinctions between FUD and speculation but both do contribute to price fluctuations.

I think it can be trap, or maybe someone sell their coins. If me, i still believe out there people want others to be panic and then they can get bitcoin in cheaper price. Maybe something like that is used to make people panic so dump is happening and they start to accumulating.

I would not say if this is the cause and if it is, I think it is even better we start getting rid of all those whales, because anyone that could have such amount of money to move the market is definitely a whale and they are the ones that has been causing a lot of damages, if we get rid of them and we have genuine cryptocurrency users, I think it will be better for all of us, as we can see now that the price is already recovering back even without that whale, and I am suspecting that it was this funds that was used in moving the market forward around April that bitcoin suddenly skyrocketed, but if it was so, thanks to him anyway, he got us out of the bear market and probably he is okay with the profit he has now, so if he is out of the market, then we can be free that one whale is down already.

Why would there be a bull run now, and What is the reason? Also, why would it crash now? No reason for that either. What makes much more sense is a prolonged period of consolidation. What is even better is that this is beneficial to HODLers and traders alike. Consolidation in BTC is within a 150 percent range, so plenty of trading to be done and HODLers will get plenty of chances to add more BTC once they acquired the fiat to do so. Of course all this only applies if the market chooses bull path consolidation pattern on monthly chart, and don't forget is it just a theory.

I don't think you can determine it from just one factor, it's true that someone selling a large amount is likely to result in a dump.
but it would be wise if we look at it from other factors as well. Use speculation do not conclude easily.

Pfft it is one of the best strategy. Yeah, 5 years ago. ;D
I bet it wont work anymore.
Eyes of the people are already opened plus it is an old move by now.

Dont believe much of what the internet tells you. It might be fake news or just someone who has nothing to do with his life.

Speculation is always healthy because it makes bitcoin move, we need bitcoin to move to make profits even if we are not whales, however when there are stupid claims with no proof at all it makes no sense.

If someone moved a billion dollars in bitcoin to somewhere else (and I doubt there is anyone who has one billion dollars worth of bitcoin) then we would hear about it, blockchain is literally transparent and if there was a huge move like that we would have seen it. This is bitcoin we are talking about and a billion dollars even if cut to 1000 pieces is still 1 million dollars each, if there was 1000 moves of 1 million dollars all would have been provable in blockchain transactions.

Since, we have nothing like that we can see its obvious that 1 billion being moved somewhere else is a big lie.

It won't surprise me anyway! It has something to think that the market is so volatile nowadays and every transaction we did it absolutely will affect the entire market. Isn't only a price of a certain coin but the of the whole market trends having a change...
Not for sure if whales did this but not actually we have to worried about cause there will be a perfect time crypto and have to believe that the bulls are coming.

People not only speculate, they will then build an article around it then send it to the crypto world in other to enhance their own bottom line through clicks to their amateur websites while people like Op would go there to read and create a thread about it thereby giving it more viewership at the same time causing more panic which would further drive down the price of cryptos in the market. Its high time people began to try and understand several events will happen and they are unrelated at the same time they don't depend on each other timeline to function.

You don't have to panic every time you see a whale transaction, the news doesn't make the market price go down, it doesn't even affect the market. If even for example because of hacker news, market manipulation and others. But rest assured bitcoin is still alive.

It is very common to try to attribute what it is happening to the market to a single source but that is not accurate, the volume had been weak for weeks and people have been speculating with a decrease in the price for some time, so no one was really surprised by the direction the market took, the only surprise was how fast the price began to go down but it was to be expected as panic took control of the market and many people did not wanted to hold their coins in the case the price crashed as hard as it did a few years ago.

There are times when I ask myself the following:

which would be better:

we see bitcoin reach $100,000, but not accepted as a worldwide payment method and most governments and banks continue to take a tough stance against bitcoin?

or

we see the price at $7000 but bitcoin is accepted worldwide as a means of payment and all governments and banks accept bitcoin?

people are very focused only on big price increases that don't realize that even $6000 or $7000 or $1000 is still a good price as long as bitcoin is used worldwide as a means of payment.. what is the purpose of having Too many bitcoins if you can't use them in the real world?

Only those whales really contributed with the ongoing fall of crypto price, manipulation has been slowly taking dominance. However we need to wait for these big fishes to create more hypes in the marketplace so we could partake of the journey, and along with the recovery of our profits. We shouldn't take for granted those possible trend that will influence the market price growth and development.

I strongly agree on this, therefore I don't really expect high value because after all, when crypto still exists or can be used and or has great benefits for transactions in real life then it is something better. But indeed, most of us have a desire for a profit from trading and also investments made, so that when prices fall will be a concern and become a question of themselves what to do next in order to still have the opportunity to make a good profit from the situation that happened.

It is just a matter of time to make another big move and that scares me even more. It could totally go up and that would be awesome, there is absolutely no reason for the price to not go up right now however with the same logic it could go down as well, its really a big risk and I am not entirely sure if we should take it.

I am staying away from buying right now but I am holding the ones I have, neither selling nor buying right now. Trades and whales all want to make a profit and when prices stay the same level for too long they are not making money at all, so when they are calm like this not making any movements that only means that they are working on something big next. If they stay too quite for too long that only means we gonna have another huge move like the recent one.

An interesting question but those two things cannot be separated from each other, if the price goes up that much then adoption will go up as well and we will be capable of using our bitcoin everywhere since more companies will like to adopt it to try to make money that way, but if the price remains low then adoption will keep being low as well and we will be unable to use bitcoin as we like, I would like things to be different but this is the way it works and we cannot change it.

Yeah you are right, the more adoption that we get, the more that the value of the currency will increase, so we cannot even escape bitcoin reaching that $100k, it is even when government adopt it that it will shoot fast high to that $100k, because people will tend to believe in the system that the government has given them the approval to use.

I think bitcoin stabilizing at $7000 will be good for people to make transactions, but will not invite investors, so we need both user and investors of bitcoin to really keep the coin active and take it to the level where it needs to be pending the time that bitcoin is adopted globally, we still need to also benefit from it now and that is why we wish that bitcoin increases in the future to that $100k, and by then, it would have achieved its optimum adoption.

I think that money belongs to the whales. no way someone will just try to sell that huge amount of bitcoin on an open cryptocurrency exchange. When you are talking of money in BTCbillions, that belongs to someone very wealthy, a trading company or an exchange itself and they repercussion of selling huge amounts of BTC. Selling that will definitely cripple the bitcoin price in the market.

Definitely, it will make a change on the market once they trade that lot of bitcoins and I think some whales are holding it and waiting for the right time to make a move again. But if transferring from another wallet then it will not make any changes at all. And the prices of altcoins will depend on the value of bitcoin if it is going up or down and the same with them.

The value of of cryptocurrency are very volatile we don;t know when it will go up or down and it;s hard to speculate and make a prediction and were just depending on our trading chart.

The first option would be better. Just sell in a exchange when you want to spend it.

I think its not true because if someone have a lot bitcoin and sell that the price now will drop. So don't believe in any fake news just focus into it.
Now we need to fucos what the bitcoin price just need to be patience and have faith on bitcoin price will goes up.

In a presentation about the price of bitcoin is now declining, this is because it might be caused by a lack of calculation in world activity, maybe in the middle of the month it could have gone up 90%, the company's bitcoin program is now declining because of the fall in the price of the bitcoin, thus workers in the crypto money is increasingly drained by tight work on the activities of world companies, and also with the amount of the price of bitcoin falling gradually in stages little by little.

If only determining only one of your possible factors is wrong. But true if someone sells a coin in bulk resulting in a sale is greater than on demand and tends to price down.
But should be seen other factors such as good news or bad news to easily conclude.

There's certain reason on why the market is crashing down we can just point out one reason alone, there's market movements where panic holders are following. So if there's bad news that happened along the way expect those weak holders to quickly dissolved all their assets fearing to lose their money.

And also, consider that whales loves to ride either to help giving  good bull run or ride with the dumped and make the value much lesser.