Bitcoin Forum

https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoMarkets/comments/dbwlrj/sentiment_just_hit_rock_bottom_reddit_bitcointalk/

Reddit & Bitcointalk have most bears but Twitter stays cool.

Crypto Reddit and Bitcointalk is where most of the speculative clowns hang out. Price up = moon and price down = the end is near. They surf on the flow of the market.

Twitter is a platform people tend to put thought and effort in their posts, and they generally seem educated and therefore have a more rational thinking. This however doesn't mean there aren't trolls and whatnot on Twitter, but definitely less from what I have seen than on Reddit and Bitcointalk.

Not sure how much value there is to extract from these sentiments though. Perhaps that measuring sentiment amongst news outlets will provide some useful data points.

I beg to disagree with you if you visit Bitcoins subreddit page, r/Bitcoin (https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/), right now you will see that even if we are bearish a lot of people are still optimistic with Bitcoin going up. Just take a look at this post and you will see that they are waiting for the next halving and all of the comment are being shared are not about them following Bitcoin blindly they are somehow knowledgeable with the topic and the industry overall. Aside from this forum I usually go to either tradingview or r/Bitcoin to get my daily dose of analysis and news related to Bitcoin and it really helps if you have multiple sources with different opinions on that matter.

Looks like a Richter graph, all over the place, people gained confidence this year a bit more reliably then that chart shows.
  Its not a bad idea to gauge sentiment but perhaps needs more experience then just looking over some months.   This is nowhere close to a proper sell off, complete exaggeration to describe this as anything but a mild disappointment.    I'd call it a retraction just based off the idea of something more like a yearly average, we are up over 12 months so I'm forced to say this is a good price and a positive market, doesnt matter my own position really. 
 https://i.imgur.com/gZV77qb.png 
 Rock bottom is a good description for a scenario to hold out for because its a cold hard place but ironically you find foundations for the next solid rise and a bull market so its ironically the point we should be optimistic despite the prior price falls.
   We cannot describe this as rock anything, its a half way house and we still dont know if we shall go up or down over medium term.  I can guess up short term quite easily, seems more likely then not and I'm sure quite a few are ready to join any rise.    A really negative scenario is when people leave the building, turn off the computer stop watching day to day even check the price that week and declare the game over because clearly nothing will happen, at that point the rag has been wrung dry.

If we want to be fair, the Bitcointalk sentiment should be limited to the analysis in the wall.
The noise that accompanies any rise or collapse is associated with the human nature that hates the loss, but the more a person knows how to profit in any case and also increased confidence in the system of cryptocurrencies.
Ratings in Twitter seem to people with experience about cryptocurrencies because what drives them to publish is personal motivation, unlike forums that may be a large part of the publicity or beginners trying to learn.

I see the recent correction as healthy.

Aside from some data, others extract entertainment from it.  Creating thread just to spread FUD or troll about the current market movement,  I bet these thread starter are  laughing out loud while reading responses from emotional members of the platform.

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I don't think that majority of the member of Bitcointalk current sentiment is bearish,  its that "Bear"  people are too active voicing out their opinion since the market sentiment has gone to their favor.  If you look at the current thread trend, it's just some people talking about Bitcoin doom.

All this data is just a lagging indicator. If you were around those Reddit posts back in Dec 2018 when we hit $3100 people were saying that BTC will hit 3 digits sometime in the next few months. Same with the June 2019 bull market, people were saying that it will hit a New ATH before it goes to $100K

Right now people are saying we will hit $5000. And there was a slight rally since then. So based on this data you can't really trade off it because people start complaining about BTC after it falls and people praise BTC after it rallies, so unless you got some time machine it's useless reading those posts.

That's why you need to learn to trade on your own. Because that way you can't blame other people for your losses.

Exactly--and this happens in the stock market too, I've noticed.  When bitcoin is rising, you'll get tons of speculation threads predicting even higher prices, and when it's headed south you get the exact opposite.  Crazy, because nobody knows what's going to happen with any certainty.

Probably none.  Looks like garbage data to me, and I'm not even sure what the relevance is or what it's supposed to mean.

I can't stand Reddit, and I've said that a million times.  Just an awful cesspool of idiocy, and that's why I stick to bitcointalk (only occasionally a cesspool of idiocy. 

Anyway, the market would seem to contradict what those charts are trying to say.  I would assume that if "sentiment" (kind of a vague term here) were at rock bottom, the price would be a hell of a lot lower.  Hell, we were at $3XXX not too long ago, and right now we're in the $8k range.  Not too shabby IMO.

We'll likely see further dips, I think. Prices are trading at a near 40% discount from the height of this bull run, and given the resistance at 5 figures, I do think that there will be more downward movement before prices truly recover.

However, it's a good time to start dollar cost averaging - when the rest of the market is screaming sell, it is more than likely a good idea to load up on cheap coins.

After all, these short term volatilities will be negligible in the long run, if that's what you're here for.

You are right, in many cases it is laggin. I think we should take a statistical perspective though. How many times does it need to be right for you to make profits?
For example this backtest from yesterday is based on the same data input
https://i.imgur.com/823IHWy.png

I assume you don't trust other people's backtest... If so, download the sentiment scripts I used, check & control the parameters yourself:https://github.com/augmento-ai/quant-reseach
(scripts are in th folder called examples. you need to run them in the order of the numbers from 0 to 4)
 

I agree with your analysis. We live at an era where all people can express any side of human nature using the many available platforms online thus we can now gauge human sentiments and emotions on-time hence we are always bombarded with things that we agree with and with those that we don't. As far as I know, the noise made by some on the recent dip of Bitcoin is just a temporary thing and I would say just adding up to the overall dynamics happening everyday. Yes, it is the weakness of human nature to express fear and sometimes desperation when things are not going well (either real of just perception). The way I am seeing it now, there is that consensus that this pullback is quite a healthy one and should be viewed positively especially in the light of Bitcoin's 10-year history. There is nothing to be alarmed and we should just be calm, relax and just for Bitcoin to get back to its feet once more.

I doubt any of these provide useful information that you can put to work either to trade against or to prove a point. CNBC thus far has been proven to be a better counter indicator, especially when they get overly bearish or bullish.

The sheer number of bots and mentally retarded individuals in crypto land with too much time on their hands ruin things too. This space by far isn't as crowded as it appears to be when you browse through social media.

Overall, the sentiment should be quite neutral where we are today, and rock bottom when we got that scare last year to the $3k mark. If there was a time to panic, then that would definitely be it.

that is not what sentiment means!
the real sentiment is seen in the actual market and on the actual charts. everything else is just white noise like a fart in the wind. on all these platforms like bitcointalk and reddit, there are always a lot of trolls who come out of their hiding whenever there is a price drop. remember kuwakduck? these people are the ones you think are the "sentiment" and it is not the first time someone makes this mistake. that's why they keep coming back to fool you.

For sure there is a lot of bots and crap.
But we ARE getting influenced by that. There are many examples that show that also "fake" information has an effect on public opinion:
look at propaganda in the 1930s 1940s, look at the rise of PR (just google the relationship between Freud and Bernays, the founder of PR) or the last US election.
The stories we read and hear do form our opinion – even if they are faked or even if we know they are not true (recommended reading: "thinking fast and slow" by Nobel Prize winner Kahnemann).

However, I admit that taking action based on sentiment is a whole different topic.

of course. i am not denying the influence that FUD has always had on this market specially since it is still a small one filled with weak hands. my example was a well known user around here who have been very active in spreading FUD.
but the thing about FUD is that it loses its effectiveness the more it is used. take the China news for example in 2012-2013 when they first said China banned bitcoin and then in following years the panic was big but in 2017 when they said China banned bitcoin nobody gave fuck anymore. in 2018 they tried it again and the news didn't even spread. in 2019 you no longer even heard about it anymore.

There are different opinion about future bitcoin price action on both BTT and Twitter
There are users what are more bearish and users what are more bullish
All that will not have any impact on bitcoin price
The best is to watch price action and find best opportunity to buy back if somebody sold or simply hold without too much stress

interesting perspective regarding the deterioration of the effect of FUD! I suppose this holds true for all types of newd

*yawns*

You know, the thing with all these threads, they're taking away all the meanings from things that used to be very clear in definition. Bull runs when we're just seeing recoveries. Crypto winters when we're just in the midst of retracement.

And now, rock-bottom sentiment when clearly, we're still almost 200% up from the year's current bottom.

We do love our superlatives, don't we?

I really think it is pretty normal for people is a social community site to give their sentiments I have seen many that are pretty positive in one Reddit section but you can not take out people that are very negative about Bitcoin I guess they are just giving out what are their thoughts regarding the current price of Bitcoin now.

In my opinion, we can not blame them for spreading negative remarks because many are thinking Bitcoin is in a bullish trend so why do we have this kind of movement, I guess social media had some various thoughts regarding Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, Maybe you just seen some bad comment regarding the price of Bitcoin right now in that Reddit section because people are giving out their sentiments.

It is not a shock that people do not believe in bitcoin during the bear moments, what were you expecting people saying "the price dropped, it is cheaper now, lets get it on discount!". There are some people like that but not that many, people do not believe in those word anymore because last time bitcoin went down the price hit as low as 3 thousand dollars and people all said the same discount thing and lost a ton of money.

So, when there is such a bad result for supporting bitcoin there will be bad sentiments all around eventually, it is something we can't stop anymore because bitcoin and its price disappointed too many people already. However we can at least see that this is almost as bad as it gets and hope that sentiment can't get any worse and this is the result so we know where the rock bottom takes us.

What's with the giant whipsaw on the Bitcointalk chart? I'd love to see how they crunch their data. It's not publicly available, so I'd take it with a grain of salt.

Anybody ever back-tested their indicators or tried the free trial? https://www.augmento.ai/sentiment-signal-signup/

People might be bearish on other altcoins, but when it comes to bitcoin, I think in this bitcoin is where we have the most bullish people that you can ever find. There is a difference between giving update on what is happening per the price of bitcoin and just speculating that bitcoin will never rise.

Though we have very few silly people here that do post rubbish things that could create FUD about bitcoin, but I believe that those ones are just against bitcoin and they should not be counted as members of this forum at all. Every time that I am even personally down in sprit about bitcoin sometimes, it is when I come here that I usually get lots of motivations from people that makes my spirit to life up, so I don’t know what made you conclude that it is in bitcoin talk that you find bears the most.

i present a counterpoint: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5188987.msg52609655#msg52609655

in micgoossens prediction contest, there's only 11 people so far predicting lower than the current price ($8250). there's more than 70 people predicting higher prices. :o

which begs the question, how are they measuring bitcointalk sentiment? counting the number of times "bear" or "crash" is mentioned?

I think that having a sentiment, or an emotional attachment to an investment is not something bad by itself, for example, when we agree on its vision, or the way it has to do things. We often hear how bad emotion is when handling money and taking decisions, but in truth I never disagree with my sales and I think there's nothing wrong in that, in fact I have my own favorites inside and outside of Crypto. thereby understanding market sentiment can be a powerful tool for investors, But that has nothing to do with lying to ourselves about the price which is something the market is responsible for, and is independent of our preferences. I know it's difficult when one sees certain people on here every day obsessively trying to talk down BTC and act opposite, like trying to improve their long positions.

Forums sentiments will based on their current financial status, I sometimes when in short in budget really feel the sentiments that the market brings since I know the lose or chance I let it pass when the market is still in bullish trend before and didn't take advantage of cashing out most of them but realising that it will somehow benefit me in the future as it will still have chance to sore high once the market tend change. Twitter is a social media platform that people act cool to boast, while in forums and discussions like these we are looking for people who can support and give us advise since we know we understand the market condition. Not all in twitter realize the cryptocurrency even there.

Wow this is a great indictment (lol) because its just a smack down that everyone of the forum are just noob with shallow level of thinking while the guys on Twitter are the most intelligent set of people who put some serious thoughts in what they are dishing out to the community. You might not be wrong but not  totally correct at the same time and the reason for twitter high point mostly is because the people behind can be identified and when people know that they tend to be careful with what they dish out to the general public unlike the forum here.

However, it does not mean its all glory on Twitter as I have seen tweets which are just too stupid to comprehend while when it comes to undiluted discussion on a subject matter relating to crypto, the forum becomes the best source of information for such opinion.

It's crazy how things will vary from platforms, I guess people like to be around people who share their views, I remember during the market crash from 20,000, every thread in Bitcoin Discussion, Speculation was basically a bunch of people panicking and FOMO'ing over not selling at the 20,000 mark - then you go on twitter and you see people being fair chill and quiet.

It's not really a smackdown on the people on the forum, it's more a fairly accurate generalization of the forum and it's users when it comes to price movements, obviously, there are calm people on bitcointalk and Reddit and there are people who overreact on Twitter.

You can use the scripts on their Github to run backtests with their data: https://github.com/augmento-ai/quant-reseach/tree/master/examples

What Wouk you expect in Bitcointalk?when all of clowns are here to make fun of the market?reddit as well is being surrounded by stupid FUDders

That’s why if you don’t want to be stressed then stop reading speculations in this forum lol 😂

Twitter on the other hands are mostly truthful tweets of people from their own speculations because they are investors and not trolls

I think the most serious place about bitcoin could be twitter, I know that is as silly as it gets but you can find the most serious people there as well.

On bitcointalk and reddit you don't really have a profile, on reddit they are working on making people have a profile but you really don't on bitcointalk you don't have your own page you write stuff. Hence on twitter you can just pick the best crypto people around and follow them and if you don't ready the responses to their messages because there are a ton of idiots there then you will get a sense of whats going on a lot better.

Just get like 20-50 people who understand what bitcoin is and really smart about the situations (which is hard to find but you have the time) then you just check the stuff they say in common, if 20+ smart bitcoin people all say the same thing then it is obviously true.

I totally agree with you. In Bitcointalk and Reddit, most of the people seem to love to talk about only price, not the possibilities. Their way of talks depends on crypto price movements when twitter people seem always positive. Even I think Redditors are better than many if btalk people.

I really love when when people posted something like its the end game now or prices will still go down because the bear the taken over again. I guess nothing has really change, people will come and go but the sentiments remain. I'm sure that we have another sort of bull run, we are going to here, "moon", and "when lambo". It's just cyclical but I never doubt bitcoin a bit and let those people post whatever they want.

Do you say that there were no trolls on twitter as well?I disagree with that where you can still spot some of them but I tend to agree that this
forum or even on Reddit you would able to see those fudders and shillers.

For you as a reader and tried to search up some sentiment then you should set yourself to be ready or get numb on anything you do possibly
read along the way.

Sentiment is usually a lagging indicator. When there is a correction, sentiments usually hit rock bottom. Same is the case in opposite situation.

Reddit and Bitcontalk give platform for elaborate discussion whereas Twitter doesn't. Thus, the negative keywords are more readily seen on Reddit and Bitcointalk. Regarding fuders and shillers, they are equally present on all the media.

I guess they look at thread titles. When there are too much questions about price, or threads about hope, faith and belief, then there is fear.

Right now there are a lot of panicked folks posting threads. Threads with "when it is going up" shows impatience for long term, and consequent shorting. From this you can conclude the market sentiment is bearish.

Not sure how the metric is taken, usually is consider these social media contents as trolls and speculators, there will be more contents and sentiment regarding the market in Reddit and in this forum because these forums are specifically dedicated for these market and hence if you take the metric you will find more contents regarding that and social media has a broader content.

Haven't we all have experienced this several times already? When we are talking about negative market sentiments in the crypto market what do you notice who is posting these things? We only see newbies or low ranking members spreading topics like "I don't believe in Bitcoin" or "Bitcoin is a bubble" type of thread and all that is really happening is these certain individuals have lost their money on a trade they aren't prepared to enter. And now they are considering this as part of the market sentiments from the overall audience of the market which isn't really an accurate thing to do when most of the veterans out here are still bullish for Bitcoin.

Sentiment is what it is known as. I don't put sentiment outside from market analysis. It is important for me. Raddit nor bitcointalk give us the expectation in the market.
For example, it speculated that btc was going to drop back to $8, and there we are. We just ignore it when we read about it  ;D

And the price bounce back above $8200 after a bit dip to $7788, I thought the price was going to fall below $7600 but it didn't but recover instead.
But the bounce is just temporary as the last seven days the market was so bearish, it just not make sense for traders to not short an asset that looks so bearish.
Remember when the price fall to $7800 but be able to gain value to $8500 and then gradually drop to $7788, the cycle will repeated again after the price reach the peak but when it fall again, expect it to go deeper than $7700.

The night is darkest right before the dawn.  Price dont decrease much if at all, but 2017 is now so far away that is not that easy to remember it. So people are losing hope. People like more the bear markets with hope then the sideways without hope.  In next half year that should for sure end.