Bitcoin Forum

Source: @Rhythmtrader (https://twitter.com/Rhythmtrader/status/1178736818927362048)

Dates would be useful here, but you get the idea. Does this mean Bitcoin is no longer in a bull market?
I haven't double checked these numbers, but they look about right.


Probably not in a bull market anymore init.
#200DayMABroken


Related topic: If Bitcoin Repeats History? 5 Part TA Series On Descending Triangle Breakdowns (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5188537.0)

I do not think that what is happening now is the furthest correctio as mentioned above, Some collapses exceeded 50% months:
$700 to $350
$20k to $3200
And others, it seems to be an attempt to find similarities in numbers to prove the correctness of his analysis but all means nothing.
What happened in the past does not necessarily mean to be repeated because of the variables/factors are changing.

Not the furthest correction no. From the subject:

I checked a few of them. They seem roughly correct but there are at least a couple important ones missing from the list.

August 2012: $16.40 -> $7.10 (56.7%)
April 2013: $260 -> $45 (83%)

Both took place during bull markets on the way to new all-time highs. David has been seeing 2012 as the closest parallel to the current cycle. (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5140701.0;all) Food for thought.

First of all you can't say that this correction is over. Bitcoin can still go even lower and set a new low. If this would happened then it could mean that 43% correction wasn't so bad after all but let's not go that far and just patiently wait what the future will bring us.

True story, hadn't thought to check further back to be honest. In both of these cases the price was above the 200 Day MA, so I'd say it was still bullish.

Yeah, that's the one I was looking for.

And while I obviously could look at a bitcoin price chart, I have not done so in a couple of years--I didn't even realize that it had hit $13,880 this past time around.  Totally forgot, since after that it had pooped out at $10k for a while.  I really ought to check the chart sometime soon, but I don't believe in TA so that's not my thing.  Perhaps I'll do it just for nostalgia's sake.

Edit:  I looked at the chart, and bitcoin didn't go as high as $13,880 in 2019.  Got close but did not reach that level.

Definitely true.  When bitcoin was vacillating around the $10k mark, I'd figured that when it busted out of that range it'd go upward and back toward its ATH.  Didn't happen, and there's no telling where it's headed from here.  True, it did rebound from below $8k....but nothing is certain.  Traders and chart watchers would do well to remember this.

Bitcoin seems to always be either in a bull or bear state except when the price is flat--and those flat parts can last a long time.  The drop from $20k was certainly when it was in a bull market.  Ah, the euphoria.  I do miss that so.

The 200-day MA breakdown is discouraging, yes. Same with the 20-week MA. These are for sure reasons for caution here but I don't think we have the data to say they are definitely indicative of a bear market. A fellow analyst elaborates on that here: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/csAFwPYs-The-Weekly-21-EMA-is-No-Longer-Precedent-Time-for-New-Precedent/

43% is not a correction.

43% is a crash.

https://i.imgur.com/mV3o5bd.png
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Historical-Corrections-of-Bitcoin-BTCUSD_tbl3_329973120

Maybe this table shows a better history of corrections, but since it shows events only from 2012, the biggest correction is still from 2011 with decline of 93%.

Some people say that there is no actual bull run from April 2019, but almost $10 000 up in a very short time was interpreted by many as such. However, it should take into account that the probable reason for this was that Bakkt was buying BTC for his service, and some data says that the amount was around 100 000 BTC.

Price of Bitcoin is always depended on the bull/bear mood, but if we look at the table it's really just about making a profit with one very clearly visible difference, Bitcoin high/lowes price is going up, but a decline in % stays pretty much at the same values.

Agreed, to clarify I wasn't saying we were in a bear market, but there we may no longer in a bull market either, and instead look bearish at the moment. Given there's not enough evidence to say we're in "still" bear or bull market, I think it's fair to say the price action is reality neutral at the moment. This might sound like an odd conclusion, but a 3.5x gain followed by a 45% correction sounds pretty neutral to me.

Also anyone else noticed we were also supported by the average price of the bear market? It's been 665 days since the $20k peak back in December 2017, the 665 Day MA (average price since $20k correction / bear market) is currently at $7682. Notice how we came down to $18 short of this? It has also finally flattened out, indicating the balance between the bears & the bulls in the past 95 weeks has finally been met. It also suggests the price is ready to move further upwards or downwards in my mind.

The only slight concern is that with recent price action, it has started to change it's trajectory downwards again. It's the yellow line on this chart anyway:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/yQgESnEV/



The moving average above definiately confirms this theory: the 2019 bull market only negated the bear market of 2018.

it is interesting to me that before this recent drop whenever you looked at what most of these "traders" were saying none of them accepted that we were in a bull run even though price had gone up more than 250% in about 6 months! they were insisting on denying the bull run. and now they seem to all suddenly have changed their minds and accepted that it was a bull run and now it has ended :o

if you ask me, we are still in a bull run with a slight hiccup. right now due to this drop, everything is being postponed a little but there is no down "trend" so that we could consider it a bear run or end of the bull run. there was just 1 single drop case. yeah if we continue declining and see lower and lower prices every week then we can call it end of bull run.

Where do you draw that line? There's some 40-42% corrections listed in the OP.

Or maybe a "crash" doesn't indicate a bear market. August 2012 (57%) and April 2013 (83%) are examples of "crashes" on the way to much higher highs.

Indeed on 4-year running perspective, ie roughly the 200 Week MA, Bitcoin never enter a bear market but a mere correction. It's depends on the time-frame you are looking at so these sweeping statements are obviously subjective. Kind of the beauty of technical analysis and the time-frames you want to engage with imo.
Anyway this moving average is still rising while the price has remained above it: it's indicative of a bull market.
This is probably why people invest in the thing  ;)

Well you could say it is not.
Why? It is not going up anymore by now.

But there is this thing we call fluctuations and all I can think about is a normal thing which happens with bitcoin.

You could sell anytime you like but if there is no profit what is the sense of doing so? Are you preparing to buy at a lower price? For there is no accurate forecast that it will be dumped more. It will be a risk.

For me Bitcoin will enter in a bear market if price will close 7450$ 114 weekly MA
That correspond with middle weekly Bolinger
As for now we didn't have even one day close below 8K
Price can move from now to 8700 $-9000$ and then retest last lows or move down from current 8150$ level and test 7500$.I don" t believe bitcoin will break 7500$ at once.I can imagine half of internet is waiting there to buy

Correction depend on strength of bull run. If bull run was weak so will be correction. Since last bull run that happened in Q2 of this year was strong so is strong correction.  What would be good indicator is if you make a table of ratio the pullback had of the strength of bull run. So if bull run was 100% and pullback was 50%, so ratio is 2. If bull run was 200% and pullback 50%, the ratio is 4.

From Op and the growth charts of bitcoin it is clear that the 20 day moving avaerage were broken. Just on this we cannot predict the true market move. The change happens in no time, and also the market moves in any direction. Experts who have been observing the market so closely will easily predict the trend. From my view, right now it is experiencing normal growth with the market fluctuating with resistance above $8000

There is a difference between correction and crash, we can see the line in "size".

In the world of investments, a correction is generally defined as a decline of 10%-20% in the price of a security from its most recent peak before recovering.
A crash is a massive loss in price. When the market crashes, its price drops by a significant percentage, below 20%. Whenever the market slowly drops, the correction keeps going and becomes a crash.

A bear market is a condition in which securities prices fall 20% or more from recent highs over a sustained period of time - typically two months or more amid widespread pessimism and negative investor sentiment.

40%-42% aren't corrections anymore.

For me, its one third from previous high. If it falls more than that, its a crash, not a correction.

And if it rises while it is below two thirds of the previous ATH, then its a recovery, not a bull run.




Basically this, but in the case of bitcoin, there is high volatility, so it can go to 30% and still be in a correction phase. After that, its a crash.

what I can learn from the chart above is how volatile the crypto market is, especially with bitcoin.
no decreases occurred overnight, all of which span several months.
if you get it in the right time then you can get big profits but if it goes in the wrong time it will suffer losses.
correction is definitely needed for the continuity of this market so don't panic too much with the current conditions because bitcoin has often experienced situations like this.

This is what I have mentioned in my previous posts as the value of bitcoin does not drop and increase overnight like it used to do in the past which is an indication that we are out out those highly volatile era wherein everyday was either a bloodbath or surprise pump. But this is limited only to bitcoin and ETH to an extend as compared with other altcoin which are currently under the state of hibernation.

How is this distinction useful? I just pointed out two examples of "crashes" that were just short term pullbacks on the way to new all-time highs.


This indicates Bitcoin was a in a "bear market" in summer 2013 and summer 2016. Anyone looking at a monthly chart can see that's ridiculous, as parabolic bubbles occurred shortly after. These generic definitions aren't helpful.

From the OP analysis his price movement is based on technical analysis and historical price behavior point of view basically fundamentals analysis is the brain behind those corrections which wasn't considered there, while for every pump in price a price correction is usually imminent however the present price of bitcoin had corrected to a very strong support which seems to be holding it and based on price action candlesticks formed in the last few days ago on the daily timeframe had shown some sign of exhaustion signalling the end of the long overdue correction of the price.

Corrections are linked with a particular rallies, not the whole market. If we say Bitcoin is corrected from $13K to $7.8K, this correction is connected with the Bitcoin rally from June 6 to June 27 when Bitcoin first started moving from $7.6K and ended up being $13.5K in 17 days. The correction indicates that this run has been diluted but it is wrong to assume any relation of correction with Bull Market. We can't say just because Bitcoin fell 40% in last 2 months, it will remain in downward trends for upcoming months. Corrections can't be linked to overall behaviour of market. Bitcoin can still catch another rally anytime soon.

I don't believe that times have changed much volatility wise. Sure, as the liquidity picks up we get less extreme price swings, but that doesn't mean we're completely out of the woods yet.

Bitcoin dropped by 20% like a week ago where Ethereum almost dropped by 30%. That's extreme volatility.... we haven't had such price movements in over a year IIRC, and we might be up for more with how bearish Bitcoin and alts look.

I don't think we'll be seeing similar daily movements, but we'll likely be trending down making lower lows. We have seen the price go up due to improved technicals this year, and the same technicals have driven the price down recently.

It is just maybe. Cause I think the correction will still continue until we gain more support from the investors as well huge market adoption. We are still not so much with that adoption, we still need more time to make it perfect.
What has OP showing is that, that is reality we face today. Bull run is quite far enough to see and for sure we can't experience this year.

Corrections in financial world has always been a reality that has to be considered when something goes up.

However, what we should not forget that correction only happens when price goes up, that is why it is called a correction. We were at one point around $3.4k to $4.2k and were going between those numbers constantly, then we went as high as $13.8k which means if were holding bitcoin and sold you might have made as much as almost 4x profits, there is nothing in this world that could make you 4x that quickly, and there were of course some corrections, it was expected because nothing can sustain such a huge increase in such a small period of time.

Hence, we should be calm and wait for another big increase after this one, we did fall before and went up, had a correction, now we should be going up again eventually.

Hmm. I'm not going to waste my time looking but I am almost certain we've seen worst pullbacks, because >80% if not 90% from ATH has certainly been seen before. Back when we were near $3k, I remember very well expecting sub $2k, only because we'd definitely seen 90% pullbacks.

So we actually have done much worse before. And since it's not improbably we'll see much worse yet, nothing to be worried about big picture.

As long as the price doesn't touches ZERO, BTC will be alright, its just not going to make things good now that media are looking into making it bad as always. For someone who invested to BTC while the price was much higher like $13k-$20K, its pretty devastating to see they will suffer to the eyes of their partners saying "I told you so its not a good idea".

The cycle happens everytime though so for those who had experienced it long time ago before the 2017 bullrun, they are just going to sleep for 3 years and wake up til the bears are done. Correction is over, lets pull our selves back again.

Well as long as they don't sell they can get back at them and tell them the same phrase "I told you so.."  when BTC breaks its ATH.


Are you referring to Bitcoin 4 year cycle?  Well it been seen twice now(2009-2013, 2014-2017), if it ever appear this time, then the 4 year cycle will be confirmed.

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I do not think that this is just a normal correction but a reversal of the market from Bulls to Bear  market. or probably bear never left the market, those that we seen are just higher lows of the bear market.

Goes without saying but yeah I get you, even at $1k I would be nervous but still breathing. In a way, that might even be good for everyone who believes in it super long term... that would be a total capitulation, total purge.

Yeah, I know those "I told you sos" which is why I can never go all in. Too many lives and futures at stake to enter 100% into this social experiment. But I'd love to be the one to say I told you so, to myself, in a few years;)

So, there is no correction at $20k times showing? Why is there no correction showing from $20k to all the way to $3k, that may have taken some time but in shorter periods last January there was a whole big drop as well, we should be looking into that as well.

Bitcoin did fell further down in corrections before and even OP edited his message showing bigger ones written by someone else as well, this is nothing in the grand scheme of things. Plus there is now more money in bitcoin which is why going up is higher whereas all you have to do to go down just sell at whatever price you feel comfortable and if you are fine with dumping then you won't have a problem.

Hence, it is understandable why there are bigger falls when the price is higher, it is just nature of things.