Bitcoin Forum

The third quarter of 2019 has been completed. Prior to this quarter, we saw one of the strongest quarters in price increase in Bitcoin's history. Somehow it is therefore not illogical that we have seen a correction during the past quarter. If we look at the price evolution of the last three months, we see that the price has made a sideways movement, indicating an equilibrium between buyers and sellers in the market.
However, the price has seen a double-digit decline in the last week of September. There is a 40% difference between the peak at the end of June and the current daily price. This is significant but it is important that we look at everything in perspective.
Bitcoin is still the best performing asset in the world in 2019 with a return of + 100%.
We have also seen in the previous cycles that corrections between 30-40% in the upward spiral are not exceptional.


This can be explained by the fact that investors with an investment horizon want to realise their profits in the short term. This puts a negative pressure on the price since the supply exceeds demand in the short term.

We want to emphasise once again that our vision is based on the long term. As HODLers, we want to avoid missing out on the ultimate appreciation in price by briefly reducing our exposure to the market.

We are always on our guard should there be any signs that we are entering a new bear market, but we do not want to make any emotional or impulsive decisions. A well-known saying from stock market legend Warren Buffett is appropriate here: "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful."
We see the fall in prices in the past quarter as an opportunity for many to increase their exposure to the market.

In terms of macroeconomic developments, we see that we are on the verge of global recession. We end up in a recession when economic growth is negative for 2 months in a row.
It will be interesting to see how Bitcoin will react as a non-correlated asset in this new economic environment.
Bitcoin originated in the aftermath of the financial crisis in 2008. We have since seen that central banks around the world have increased their balance sheets by printing money and accumulating debts.
This means that all assets that are weighed against the currency of a country such as real estate, shares and also Bitcoin have increased enormously in value. A so-called asset inflation.

We see that the reaction to a possible recession makes the central banks go back to this phenomenon of printing money and accumulating debts. As this is not yet known, it is waiting to see how more risky investments such as Bitcoin will perform.

However, the expectation remains that we will reach a new high point in the course of 2020, or before?? ::)

I'd have to look back a lot of posts, even though I probably said it several times, to find the time I said that 2020 would only be the EARLIEST we would see the next significant and sustainable bull run -- and I thought this definitely as soon as ATH arrived... and even long before the 2018 low happened.

It was really just the speed and intensity of the last bull run that was the problem. The crypto winter should have been longer, harsher, and longer. This year's surprise slingshot to almost 14k probably only delayed that 2020 target, IMO.

About this global recession, I also have the same opinion: when the economy is bad, jobs are not plentiful, people are scrounging for money and food, they will NOT be investing in Bitcoin -- so I'm not convinced when they say the crashing of the traditional is the bull run of Bitcoin. Not in terms of immediate impact anyway.

I would like to compare the third quarter of 2017 to that of this year. The 2017 year at this time, the price was on fire with high volatility and increase but at time we are seeing a gradual drop. This is an opposite.
For the last quarter of 2017, we all know high the price was steadily going up till ATH but I don't see that happening this last quarter. I would say we should expect a profitable year by 2020.

There is no question that even with the ongoing dip (which I am hoping will not lead us to the $6K level), Bitcoin remains to be a great performer if we have to compare it to gold, stocks, forex or commodities. Traders and fund managers are all aware of the great potential of Bitcoin as an asset to produce the profits they are looking for and that is why many of them are also into Bitcoin aside from the traditional assets exposure they are managing. I am sure that a critical number of people are just waiting on the sideline always looking for signs for the rock bottom of this pullback so they can be back on the game again. The Bitcoin community has been hoping for the bull run but I agree that it may not be happening this year and that 2020 as the year of the halving is the right time for the bears to finally be kicked out and for the bulls to take the center stage...or so we hope. In the next two months of 2019, it is possible that Bitcoin can be back at the $9K level and be moving sideways dominantly.

Good post.I see high possibility for bull run before 2020 even.Maybe Bitcoin will establish new ATH but price can be close to.In a case of recession everything depends on tariffs talks.All poor last economic data are caused by tariffs war.But there is something more then only tariffs war.We had 50bln repo done not so far ago.Repo purpose was to add lost liquidity to US banks.Similar was 2007.I see something gonna happen with that financial system at beginning of 2020 and in that case i very optimistic for both Bitcoin and Gold.I think both assets will have very strong bull run

Yeah I think many will closely look to BTC in 2020... I do think many are to scared of buying while they should, as its a game changer in the world money wise as it just has the best upward potential where we can dream of.... Meh, many will regret they didn't bought sooner as when they buy.

That seems to be because your comparison point should be early 2016 and not late 2017.  It seems quite erroneous to be attempting to compare the same times of the year rather than points in the four year cycles.    In other words, late 2015 and early 2016 were getting out of the long 2014/2015 bear market, just like our April to June 3.5x outburst seemed to have been getting out of our 2018 to early 2019 bear market.

I think this year is comparable to  2015 , 2017 could be 2021, from the Bitcoin 4 year cycle view point.  We can see another ATH probably after the halving since it was the only major catalyst that we can see from here.  Government adoption may help but with that there is always a negative effect on the mindset of seasoned crypto enthusiast which almost nullify any hype it brings in the market. I believe that 2020 would be the real start of the bull market.

^
One of the only things talking against that opinion is that BTC optimal play is to do what nobody expects ::)

But imo as well I think 2020 will be a special year for BTC

And people do seem pretty fearful after that crash. Many people around here have already proclaimed a bear market, and a strong majority of analysts (including myself) are still expecting lower prices. Knowing Bitcoin, I'm keenly aware that the market can reverse at the drop of a dime.

Some words of wisdom from an OG trader: (https://twitter.com/Dennahz/status/1180750685081624576)

Q4 has begun and this might be the opportunity to buy bitcoin at a lower price. There is more positive hope for the year 2020, probably this time also we can expect the trend to be similar as the previous bull run. We need to be prepared to benefit at the right time. Last time when there was growth taking place, it was mentioned as bubble. Fearing this there prevailed some panic, further the growth once again got ignited in large scale as a wave. Let's hope something bigger this time.

Many say also that in 2020 bitcoin will begin to grow will it happen? let's wait i hope at the beginning of the year bitcoin has a good positive because i have been holding btc for a long time.

Q4 had always been very crucial for the crypto market. Let's see what happens this year, whether the market is able to break the bearish trend or not or whether we would just experience a rally coming before the Q4 ends. Till then I'll be holding BTC, and let's wait for the surprises that 2020 brings along with it...

Absolutely well said.

People seem to make too much out of this completely natural phenomenon. It's not just the BTC markets either, if we see significant bullish rallies within any commodities or asset market in general in a short period of time that is obviously unsustainable, it shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone that a correction due to profit-takers, weak hands and short term speculators trading on leverage will occur sooner or later.

The magnitude of this correction is clearly over-exaggerated. I don't think that it makes much sense at all to be speaking of this correction as some sort of fall out in the markets whatsoever. 40+% corrections are not unseen. Short term sentiment can vary extremely given the volatility of the BTC markets.

Well said. I expect the bull run to occur in mid 2020's but expect a decline in the Q4 of 2019. People are probably afraid of buying now because of the decline that just recently occured, and I read in a few posts in this community that the price could potentially drop more than it is now. Even though I expect it to drop, bitcoin is still a great coin taking into account the years past performance. Keep Holding, I'll patiently await for 2020 to come.

This is more of a piece that talks about the past and Q2/Q3 of bitcoin and not the Q4 of bitcoin if you ask me.
I mean where is the predictions and what will happen during the last quarter? Do we know if there is anything major in the last quarter that will happen like for example Bakkt in Q3?

If there is none then what can we really expect bitcoin to do with no major announcements or news? Can we expect the miners to hoard their coins until halving because they know the price will go up after the difficulty skyrockets and rewards get diminished?

There are so many questions that needs to be answered about the Q4 and this topic doesn't even scratch the surface of it. I feel like we need to talk with many more in order to make a more clear decision about Q4.

I don't see Bitcoin to dominate in the market when we are on a ongoing recession. Even if Bitcoin was born during the financial crisis there is no significance of it performing well right now, it didn't even go up during 2008 and it only received its first taste of price action 2 years after its creation. In a recession I don't see any market that is safe that's why the best thing to do is to pull out your capital first to any market you have and just be ready on a buying spree once the prices starts to bottom out. This is the only way I see that we will benefit from any market.

Can you please make clear what makes you say that we are on a verge of global recession. I think the macroeconomic development merely indicate a phase of the whole market economy. Until now we haven't seen any great signs of a negative economic growth. At maximum we have seen a slight drop in GDP growth rate of the US economy to around 2.1% which still is considered normal. Source: https://www.bea.gov/news/glance . Moreover if you say that experts are predicting such a thing then as far as I remember the 2008 crash no experts were able to correctly predict the crash except one or two. So generally when expert say such thing it is to create some FUD in minds of people so that they can use it for their own good.

I personally would put some thought into diversification of my fiat holdings. During a recession the most desirable asset is fiat---which people need to pay their bills, especially if they end up losing their job.

The most speculative assets will be sold off first, which will apply to Bitcoin just as much as it does to stocks. I'm sure that even gold will not come out well with how much speculative money floats through its derivatives market.

Fiat is what you want to have during a recession. Don't let your hate or dislike for fiat make you not hoard more of it when you see the first signs of a looming recession (signs which I believe we have seen already).

More than one or two, the reality is they were in complete denial, "All is fine!" ... while not. since 2002 people were saying it's going to happen.
Not even need to be an economist to guest it. Who created the subprime mortgage crisis in the US? What did they learn as a lesson from the 2008 crisis, nothing at all? Banks are still as weak as ever.

If you see no sign for a negative growth maybe you can see the result.
I mean how do you explain the past months'individuals, as well as investors, central banks, and governments, are starting to turn to safe havens such as gold or the Swiss franc

Interestingly after @LeGaulois reply i tried to search in portfolios of largest hedge funds.
1. Bridgewater Associates:https://fintel.io/i/bridgewater-associates-lp (https://fintel.io/i/bridgewater-associates-lp) . They did reduce a lot of their portfolio from emerging markets which means mostly equities and increased portfolio on gold and bonds.
2. AQR capital management:https://www.holdingschannel.com/13f/aqr-capital-management-llc-top-holdings/ (https://www.holdingschannel.com/13f/aqr-capital-management-llc-top-holdings/): They are still quite a lot on equity only. Just changed a bit from sector to sector.
3. Renaissance Technologies:https://fintel.io/i/renaissance-technologies-llc (https://fintel.io/i/renaissance-technologies-llc): Even they haven't changed much from equity to gold just shifting around equities here and there not much increase in cash too.

So out of top 3 funds just one is showing such signs and other two are not. I will try to dig deep into the other funds and figure something if i could.

It could also be a speculative run by investors because they assume that a lot of money will be flowing into safe haven assets such as Gold. In other words, they try to front run the actual safe haven demand for Gold. Nowadays investors are so trigger happy to front run events, that they drive prices up much in advance just to front run other like minded investors.

I have always found the US stock market to be quite a reliable indicator as to what degree of fear we have in the global market, and thus far stocks are performing exceptionally well. In fact, the biggest stocks are on the brink of reaching new all time highs. That to me is not indicative of true or even looming fear.

https://i.imgflip.com/3d0w38.jpg (https://imgflip.com/i/3d0w38)via Imgflip Meme Generator (https://imgflip.com/memegenerator)

Here it is said that all date indicates that recession is possible.
But recession can only be demonstrated after the facts, never before.
Because you need data from 2 quarters... That means that we are on the verge of recession.

Of course only in hindsight we can speak of a recession, so it will always be guessing, for now.

But data does not indicate much good!
Certainly not in EU or Asia... +trade wars....

I found this chart on the net and added last quarter to it. We can see how strong Q2 was. And correction was needed. 

https://i.gyazo.com/3295dac8a3ac266d305b28431db4023e.png

After the sharp fall in the price at the end of September we saw a sideways movement of the price for a few weeks. Volatility fell sharply.

A fall in price fluctuations often precedes a strong increase in these fluctuations. This proved to be the case again. The price fell more than 10% in the third week of October followed by a huge price increase of more than 40% on 1 day. This is the 4th largest increase on 1 day in the history of Bitcoin.

We do not always try to find a reason why the price has such a sharp rise, but in this case there may be a direct link between a news fact and the appreciation of the price.

The Chinese government issued a message through Chinese media in which Xi Jingping (president of China) underlined the importance of adopting Blockchain technology for China. This came as a big surprise as China has so far taken measures to curb the development of issues related to Blockchain technology.

When the inhabitants of a country with more than one billion inhabitants see a news report in which their president speaks positively about a new technology, this will automatically generate interest among a part of the population. Certainly in a country where media censorship is extremely high.

In the short term, a news fact is used by market participants to raise the price to a higher level. When the storm about such a news event comes to an end, it will have to become clear whether it is also effectively increasing the demand for Bitcoin and alternatives from China.

In the macroeconomic field, a number of developments have also taken place in the past month that could influence the price of Bitcoin in the coming months. Last Wednesday, the Federal Reserve (central bank of the United States) lowered its interest rate again. This with the intention of stimulating the economy. A reduced interest rate ensures that people will take out a loan faster and spend the money on their savings account faster. This decision pushed the S & P500 (Stock Index with 500 largest US companies) to new heights. This shows that the investor's appetite for risky investments is again high. This is the economic sentiment that a risky investment such as Bitcoin needs.

The probability that the correction from the temporary summit at the end of June has come to an end seems very high to us.
All this gives us good hope for a strong conclusion of 2019 and the following months.

Any time the market moves with high volatility, it's tempting to link the move to the nearest news story. In this case, I really don't buy it. Events like these always highlight the schism between news/fundamentals traders and technical traders.

I think this is a good recollection of events:


In my opinion, the real reason the price moved so quickly was because of extreme lack of supply. This is visible in the charts:

https://i.imgur.com/U0NaKsH.png

See how the dump below $7,700 was done on such low volume? There was very little supply in the $7,000s. The way price quickly sprung back into the previous range is what Richard Wyckoff called a "spring." A low volume spring in particular indicates a total lack of sellers.

In other words, price fell out of equilibrium: everyone who was willing to sell the $7,000s (or $8,000s) already did. No supply on the market meant price had to be marked up into a new trading range, to find a new equilibrium.

If the move was purely a "news pump" the market would have quickly crashed again.


Totally agreed on your last point. New ATHs in the equities markets shows that risk appetite is very high, which is great news for Bitcoin bulls.

As once the dust settles from that huge run just over a week ago (that recent!), we'll probably settle into another period of low fluctuations (I note you use this term instead of volatility), setting us up for another wild period.

I think a few people will be disappointed that more sustained pushes towards big old 10k didn't happen, but what's a lot more reassuring to see is how stubbornly high a major Bitcoin bottom seems to be even after months of pummeling pressure from sellers.

Volume seems to be picking up too, so maybe you're right, appetites for risk increasing.

After the huge price increase at the end of November we saw a change in sentiment. The news that China, after years of aversion to Blockchain technology, suddenly sent positive signals about the technology to the world caused widespread positivism for the price in both the short and long term. A month later, this positivism had to make way for realism.

The full price increase of more than 40% has been reset, and meanwhile we have seen Bitcoin trading below $ 7000 for the first time since May 2019. The China hype has since subsided and it appears that this news will push the price to new heights in the short term. It was certainly not unrealistic to think this after the huge price appreciation. But as so often this can only be determined in the weeks after the facts have taken place.

We now see that the bull trend that started on April 1, 2019 has broken. This means that the structure of the price no longer makes new peaks, but that we consistently create lower heights and troughs. Until this structure is broken again, we expect that the price will not increase significantly in the short to medium term. Rather we are pushing for a further price drop to the level of $ 6000 per Bitcoin. However, this is guesswork and it does not change our vision for the long term.

As an investor, it is important that the average trend moves upwards over the years. This is still the case with Bitcoin. The price fluctuations in the short term are irrelevant if you have an investment horizon of 3-5 years. We also see that in 2019, Bitcoin is still the best-performing asset worldwide.


If we give feedback to the previous cycles that Bitcoin has gone through, we see absolutely nothing to worry about. When Bitcoin reached the unlikely level of $ 1000 in December 2013 and then experienced a huge relapse, it took 162 weeks before we had reached this level again.

In December 2017, about exactly 4 years later, Bitcoin reached the level of nearly $ 20,000. After the decline we have seen through 2018 and the huge price increase in 2019, we are only 100 weeks away in this cycle. We therefore expect that 2020 will be a positive year for Bitcoin. Sometime in the coming months, we expect the price to form a new plateau, the next upward trend of which will start.

Though i'm feeling good to be back up 7000$ at this time :)

micgoossens, a very good summary of the past year and a look to the near future. China news has certainly had a positive effect in the short term, but Bitcoin and blockchain are two different things and those who know it was aware that this could not change the trend. Bulls did their best in Q2 and they pumped the price over $10k, but the correction was inevitable, except for those who were expecting a new ATH.

One of the things we can keep track of is the repetitive cycles, so we can speculate on the next one, which, if repeated, could cause a new big bull run. Since we know that halving is the starting point of such a cycle, we can assume that the second half of 2020 will bring some positive changes that could culminate in Q3/Q4 2021.

It would be nice to move up from $7000, but I think we can still be pleased with this year, Bitcoin is still alive and the so-called Bitcoin killer (Libra) is no longer mentioned. All in all, the future doesn't look bad at all, at least for those who look at it in the long run.

I am a little confused about the historical reference for this statement.  We saw a 42% BTC price rise on about October 25, and then we have seen a trickle down and flat and various ongoing pushes in the downward direction since October 25th until present.  Maybe we have a double bottom in the mid $6ks, but the ongoing BTC price seems way too much hovering in the lower $7ks in order to have any kind of rest assurance that the potential double bottom in the mid-$6ks is going to be the end to the correction... maybe 50/50.. as far as I can speculate regarding whether there is going to be any further correction that might take us below the current and so far $6,425 local low of this correction that happened a couple of days ago.

And, by the way, fuck China as being any kind of meaningfully important causal factor in regards to BTC price dynamics.  You cannot really believe in any of these kinds of one-causal factors in regards to bitcoin price movements, which more likely a product of several factors - even if there could be some marginal effects that dominant factors, including "china" can have to influence BTC's price momentum from time to time.



O.k... you do seem to be talking about the same things as me, which was a late price rise to $10,300 and then a somewhat drug out price drop over two months thereafter.


O.k. I largely accept your definition of falling out of a bull trend, that would largely cause the odds of the BTC price going down or staying flat greater than the odds for up, but I remain quite reluctant to concede that it is fair to assert that bull or bearish trends flip so quickly.  I think that with bitcoin we have to zoom out a bit and think about BIGGER trends, and sure, even though we might be in the midst of a pretty seemingly deep and drawn out correction time, I doubt that it is enough of a break down or even a time period in which we can really assert that the transition into the bull trend has been broken.

Of course, assessments can differ on these kinds of assessments and those are the kinds of thinking differences that contribute to the assigning of probabilities regarding which way people are going to differ in terms of where they believe that the BTC price is going to go from here.. whether short term, medium term or longer term.




"we"?  hahahahahaha Are these really your words?  Even though there have been very difficult to substantiate speculations that you might have a team, your style has not usually been to employ the royal "we"  that is what wannabe sorcerers tend to do.. or even troll/shills, and maybe you just slipped up here?

Regarding your substantive claim, sure... if "we" (meaning the BTC price) is kind of caught in a price range that is in the lower end of a consolidation range, then it can take a while to play out... consolidation tends to signify that neither side is really getting their way and the price is continuing to stay in an area until maybe one side or another achieves a lucky break in their preferred direction.... and if we are in a bull market then the odds for up are greater than the odds for down and if we are in a bear market the odds for down are greater than the odds for up, but no matter which market we are in, the price could end up breaking in the direction that is opposite of what the odds would predict.. which could even end up changing what kind of market we are in after the break versus before the break had occurred.



These really your words?  Sounds more bearish than your usual unfettered and frequently overly unrealistic bullish optimism.   :D :D :D



You taking notes from TOAA?  or lambie?  Really, "our"?

Substantively... you are saying "down before up"    hahahahaha... I have heard that before.  Maybe it will happen?  Maybe not.



As an investor, I don't think that the trend has to move up, except over the longer term or at the time that the investor is going to need his/her (their... to use the plural) money.. Maybe that is what you are asserting... and further investors surely prefer that their investments are profitable, but some kinds of investments are risky and/or a hedge, so profits are not necessarily guaranteed in a kind of needing way, but it is important in a kind of assessment regarding the extent to which an investment might have been either profitable or otherwise served its hedging purposes (which might not have been profitable, but were still serving insurance purposes).


These are agreeable and true... historically bitcoin has always been profitable for anyone who hung onto it for at least 3.5 years (which would be the employment of various variants of buying, accumulating, holding), but of course, history does not provide any kind of guarantee of future profitability or the timeline that will be necessary in future in order for the investment to play out.  Furthermore, if investors attempt to play around with their BTC investment too much, by getting in and out and some other strategizing things like that, they might have ended up losing in what should have been a profitable market, overall.


Fair enough rendition of history, and again, history does not guarantee future results even though there seem to be a lot of very convincing and solid price modeling that accounts for the history and puts pretty damned good odds on continued future upwards BTC price movements.



fair enough.



1) royal "we" again?   ::)

2) I agree that the odds for overall up in 2020 seem to be greater than the odds for flat or for down, which kind of suggests that we are still in a bull market... even if the price rise might be gradual or it might end up exploding .. hard to know for sure regarding degree, but the odds for up during 2020, or by the end of 2020, seem decent, at least, maybe even better than 50%


Strange way of saying that, which does not really seem to be your writing style.. but whatever... we have had stranger things happening around these parts, sometimes.   :D :D :D :D

Overall, I agree with a lot of your points, Lucius; however, I would quibble a bit with your framing the beginning of a cycle (or the next cycle) in such strict terms. 

Of course, the halvening has a very strong material and real world impact because it immediately, precisely and suddenly cuts the newly issued rewards in half, and this surely is a known event and it is even timed in very precise terms (meaning the block number that it is going to happen).

But even with all that there has already historically proven to be a bit of market action that comes in anticipation to the halvening, and sure a bit of ceremony around the halvening and even some pressures that build and build and build after the halvening.  I would assert that the halvening is largely a ceremonial event rather than an empirical one concerning when the next cycle starts exactly.. because when the cycle actually ended up happening, ends up being one that we can look back historically and proclaim whether or the extent to which the models ended up playing out as anticipated or concluding that we might need to tweak the model somewhat in order to account for how history ended up playing out.

What I am suggesting is that you might end up being correct in terms of how the cycle model ends up playing out; however, there exist a decent amount of real world players who want to attempt to prove the various models wrong and thereby be able to personally (or institutionally) be able to profit from proving the models wrong (even if they only end up being correct on a short term, rather than a longer term basis), which involves BTC price manipulation beyond expectations whether that is manipulating in the downwards direction or manipulating in the upwards direction to the extent that they are able to achieve such manipulation with the tools that are available to them.

Of course, this is just an assumption that can definitely be wrong for the reasons you make in your post. Given that Bitcoin has only been in existence for 10 years, and we only had 2 halvings, we can only speculate that something will happen again. I agree that big players have the tools to manipulate the crypto market, it's a very modest market in terms of overall value, and every major purchase or sale causes major changes in price.

It may be that some will try to use the majority's belief in repeating the cycle for their own benefit. Probably these same discussions took place after the first halving and the anticipation of the second, and as then, we will have to wait at least 2 more years to see what the effects of 3 halving will be.

WE and OUR is just a way of talking I guess, when we speak Bullish about BTC then I think we just talk about the community not? And indeed this summary was actually written at the end of November there for the slightly bearish 6K talk which short term surely was on the table not?

I do prefer to stay above 7K  and start building upward 5-digit Nrs, but we have to follow and don't front run the market cause we just can't predict the when as some people think they can.... but for me I just mainly believe in follow the narrative as how it goes and DCA whenever "we" can  :-*

The year 2019 is behind us as well as a full decade. This seems like a good time to look back on this. Ten years ago, Bitcoin was still in its infancy as a monetary experiment by some cryptographers who were working hard from their attic room on developing a 'correct money' protocol.

If we take a moment to reflect on how far we have come to this day, this is certainly admirable.

A new asset class has emerged with today a market capitalization of almost 200 billion.

It is estimated that about 1% of the world's population already owns crypto.

Governments, central banks, multinationals, they are all involved with this technology in one way or another.

What makes it especially interesting for us as investors is the fact that this market is still in its infancy despite the development and infrastructure that have been developed over the past decade.

With house prices at their highest point ever as well as stock indexes, we see Bitcoin as the only asymmetric investment for the coming years. By this we mean that the risk taken is justified by the enormous potential that this market offers

In addition, governments continue to expand their balance sheets, which is bullish for a scarce commodity like Bitcoin that is completely independent of a central entity. For us, Bitcoin is like a kind of insurance against the irresponsible policy of these entities.

In the past year we have seen that Bitcoin has separated itself from the rest of the market. Where Bitcoin has experienced a strong price increase, this was not the case with the large majority of the market. We can explain this because Bitcoin is larger, has more liquidity, can be traded on multiple exchanges, has regularised future contracts and is fully autonomous.

In order to be able to make a prediction for the price in 2020, we look back again to the previous cycles that Bitcoin has gone through. In May 2020, the reward for those who secure the Bitcoin network will halve. This ensures that there is less downward pressure on the price. This occurred earlier in 2012 and in 2016. These years were each closed positively followed by a huge price increase in the following year.

However, we can only base ourselves here on 2 data points from the past, which means that this prediction must be taken with a grain of salt. The past rhymes often but is absolutely no guarantee for the future.

That is why I will also try to provide an overview of our findings and new insights and developments every month in 2020.

First of all, a healthy and happy 2020 is desired for everyone!

Still there are many thinking and writing for this year, but where will it bring us, gladly to see it month by month :)

January update


The first month of the new year is already over and Bitcoin and associates have not missed their start.

Where the price of Bitcoin has made a sideways movement in the last 2 months of 2019, we see that the price is now in an upward trend.

From a technical point of view, this price appreciation can be explained by the fact that an outbreak from a sideways price movement is often followed by a significant trend.

Data analysis of the Bitcoin blockchain also showed that long-term holders were accumulating more coins in the months before 2020. It has often been shown that this precedes a sharp rise in the price.

There are also voices that Bitcoin is finally seen as a macroeconomic instrument for absorbing economic shocks. A role that has been fulfilling gold for decades. The appreciation of Bitcoin was accompanied by struggles between Iran and the United States of America as well as the outbreak of the Corona virus. However, this can only be a coincidence and we want to see a stronger correlation before copying this thesis.

In addition to Bitcoin, other cryptoassets also had a strong month. This is an interesting development that we follow closely. If we have sufficient confirmation that this is for a longer duration, we can possibly increase our allocation altcoins in our portfolio.

Despite the significant price increase, we still want to dampen enthusiasm. If we zoom out, we see that the price has been in a downward trend since the end of June. Before we exceed the psychological limit of $ 10,000 per Bitcoin, we are still in this downward trend.

Our expectation was that 2020 would be a positive year for Bitcoin. January is already an indication for this.

However, we can also expect a significant decline after such a sharp rise. As long-term investors, we do not have to take this into account as long as the trend is upward over the years.

Februari update

We have closed another month in the new year and therefore we would like to give you an overview of some developments in the Bitcoin landscape as well as possible macro economic insights.

At the beginning of the month, Bitcoin broke the psychological limit of $ 10,000. We have seen a significant decline after this. This is in line with the expectation as we also stated in our previous monthly overview. As far as we are concerned, the downward trend has again been switched into an upward trend. However, this does not mean that we expect a flawless course for 2020. Huge price increases are always accompanied by a significant decline. This does not deter us as an investor with a long-term horizon.

These are very interesting times in the global financial markets. 2020 has only just begun but there are already some obstacles that could influence the price of Bitcoin. The Coronavirus (Covid-19) is spreading outside of China. Where the number of infections in China is declining, we see the reverse movement in the rest of the world. The stock markets have shown their concern about the virus for the first time with a huge fall in prices last week. The fear that sectors such as the aviation sector and the tourism sector will be hit hard has translated into a fall in prices across all financial markets.

The question is whether Bitcoin can benefit from this as a non-correlated asset. There are voices that say that Bitcoin is an ideal way to take refuge when traditional markets are doing poorly. But there are also many indications that Bitcoin as a speculative asset would also suffer if we end up in a global recession. This will tell the time.

The fear of a possible recession has caused central banks worldwide to announce that they will once again inject incentives into the market by lowering interest rates and by "printing" money. This shows that central banks are continuing with the monetary experiment that has been going on for a decade now. This irresponsible attitude is something that we have cited several times as positive for Bitcoin in the long term.

In addition to the Corona virus, the American presidential elections also play an important role in the current economic landscape. On the one hand, we have Trump putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. This with the intention of pushing equity markets to new heights. This would greatly help him in the upcoming elections. On the other hand, we have the democrats where the candidates are directly opposite each other. Bernie Sanders is an extremely left-wing progressive socialist and Joe Biden and Michael Bloomberg are both center candidates. The expectation is that if Bernie Sanders reaches the primaries, this will have a huge impact on the financial markets. Sanders is against the current capitalist system. This could potentially give a huge boost to the Bitcoin price.

However, all this remains a guesswork and it will be important for us to closely monitor all this to take any action. The only thing we can say with certainty is that we have a very interesting year ahead.

It has monetary characteristics like gold, but let's be honest. It's a decade old technology. There's no indication that society will treat it like gold in a global recession.

On top of that, we should note that gold doesn't unequivocally rise during recessions. During the 2008 crisis, it crashed ~35%. I was not surprised to see gold dump 7.5% last week during all the craziness. More or less, everything will suffer during a recession.


I would say Sanders is more centrist than that, but the primary season tends to emphasize very partisan politics. Markets should respond positively to a Biden primary victory. A Sanders victory, less so.

Thx for the valuable insight, much appreciated!!!

March update

The first quarter of 2020 has ended and something tells us that this quarter will be in our memories for a long time.

We already mentioned in our monthly overview of February that these are interesting times in the global financial markets.

This turned out to be an understatement. We have seen the world go into lockdown, borders are closed and the economy is flat.

The Corona virus will probably go down in history as the greatest crisis of our generation. This is mainly because it goes a lot further than the virus alone. The virus has proven to be the catalyst for the end of the stock bull market that started after the 2008 financial crisis.

With a financial system that is on the slope, artificially maintained by central banks worldwide, we have come to the point for which Bitcoin originated.

Bitcoin was invented in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis as an alternative to the current system. A system that has grown disproportionately over the past 10 years. We see government deficits worldwide, companies with a huge debt burden, negative interest rates, a huge increase in the money supply and so on. Bitcoin offers an alternative to this as a non-sovereign, global, censorship-resistant, unchanging, decentralized and scarce hoarding medium.

Last month, we asked ourselves how Bitcoin would respond to the massive price drop in traditional financial markets. We received an unambiguous answer to this. Bitcoin had one of its biggest price drops ever at 24 hours on March 12. On some trading platforms, the bottom price even reached $ 3,600. At the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin is $ 7100. So we saw a huge crash followed by a huge weather collision.

It has thus emerged that Bitcoin as an uncorrelated asset will not escape the flight to cash in the short term during a crash in the markets worldwide. Even gold, which has been used as a potting medium for millennia, has seen a significant revival.

Looking back at the crisis in 2008, we saw the same pattern. Precious metals declined early in the crisis, followed by a massive price hike that brought gold and silver to their all-time high. We expect a similar pattern. And we are convinced that Bitcoin, seen as the digital gold, can take over part of that market.

We follow all developments closely, but we would like to emphasize that your health and care for loved ones is of primary importance in the near future!

April update

The month of April is already behind us, so it is time to give you an overview of the latest developments in the crypto landscape as well as some macro-economic insights.

During April we saw a continuation of the trend that had already started at the end of March. Namely a further revival of so-called risk assets such as shares and Bitcoin while the entire world is in lockdown.

This can be explained by the fact that financial markets reflect how its participants look to the future. This means that markets are always anticipative and not reactive. The market had clearly priced in a worst-case scenario in which health systems would perish worldwide. As a result, a higher mortality rate. Except for a few exceptions such as Italy and Spain, this turned out not to be the case.

The wave of panic has turned into a wave of hope. Hope for a rapid revival of the economy when all this is over. This account, combined with an unprecedented intervention by central banks and governments through tax incentives and liquidity, means that the markets have already recovered most of their losses.

However, we are cautious that this could change again when economic reality comes to the fore. Unemployment, bankruptcies, a new wave of contagion, government deficits,… These are all uncertain factors for the future, so that we can expect a new downward trend.

We believe that Bitcoin can disconnect from other risk assets and will come out of this crisis very positively. Bitcoin has unparalleled features such as digital scarcity, making it an alternative to the current monetary system for many. A crisis of this magnitude can be the catalyst for Bitcoin to take the forefront of the macroeconomic landscape.

The Bitcoin halving will take place within a week. A long-awaited event that takes place every four years. This means that Bitcoin miners will halve their reward for securing the network. It ensures that miners have fewer Bitcoins available to cover their costs. This reduces the long-term downward pressure on prices. In the short term, this event can bring volatility to the market. However, for us as an investor with a long-term horizon, the price action is irrelevant in the short term.

We hope that we have made it clear to you what Bitcoin's position is in these turbulent times and what our outlook is for the future!

Just wanna explain ... these updates are from a personal friend of mine who’s managing his own fund in Belgium and I share his monthly update towards his investors.... his perfectly ok with me sharing them as we are close to best friends etc
But just wanna let you all know that these are not my own writings, I already explained in Dutch section and was cleared ok with an admin for doing so.
I will keep posting his updates and add a line under every post that it’s not my writings.
Just to get this clear hope you guys enjoy these words and insights of my friend who I believe is very smart towards btc-crypto-economics etc

Bitcoin is indeed unique in the market, but from time to time we can clearly see the correlation between it with gold, stocks or oil. The proclamation of a pandemic affected everyone, and the BTC with a terribly sharp decline was no exception. Yet such declines are part of a dynamic market, and few are the ones that just hold on when everything collapses, most still try to mitigate the damage and sell before it hits bottom.

In relation to the crisis that started in 2008 and this one that started this year I personally look at Bitcoin as something that arose at the beginning of a recession, managed to build a certain reputation and achieve a certain level of development, and in the next recession it should actually show its strength. There is a saying "what doesn't kill you, makes you stronger", so I believe Bitcoin will come out of this economic collapse even stronger.


Although halving in the past has proven to be a very strong element in terms of long-term impact on price, there are a lot of those who are already talking about the pre-halving effect in terms of current price growth and the beginning of a new big bull-run. Although the pre-halving FOMO should not be completely ignored, I still think that it does not play a major role in increasing the price we are seeing now. The crypto market is recovering and returning to the same positions where it was some 2 months ago, and after halving we will see in which direction it will move.

All true: Put quite simply BTC is most definitely more mature than at the last halving/last bear market or whatever historical comparison is to be made.

Therefore it will behave differently.  ergo:  all historical comparisons are flawed in some way.

It's reassuring hearing such a statement from a fund investor.
They are usually quite obsessed with benchamrking their returns to some kind of performance index.
The HODL attitude in the financial industry is something realtively new. Even in the commodity investment sector, the one more similar to BTC, the "gold-bug" attitude is frown at.

Nice report, will definetly contribute to this thread.

May update

The month of May has already ended. Thus it is time to give you an update on Bitcoin and its positioning during these turbulent times.

The Bitcoin halving is behind us. It has not created the volatility many had predicted. The price has moved sideways throughout the month.

The correlation that emerged between Bitcoin and other risk assets seems to be over. This may be due to the uncertainty that is disappearing as most countries are easing their lockdown measures.

The key question, however, remains at what speed the economy will return to full speed.

Just as the Corona crisis seems to have been temporarily overcome, there is great disorder in the United States. The protests and riots in response to George Floyd's death take on unseen proportions. We are following this closely as it could be the next catalyst for financial market volatility.

After a number of turbulent months, we can look back on the month of May as a kind of decompression. We will see if this trend continues during the summer months.

(These articles are always written by a close friend of me)

https://i.imgur.com/5UxE63V.png

We had differences in values of up to $1000 during the month. I still find that to be significant volatility, especially compared to the last months.

If it's about a massive rise, who thought it was going to happen? The newbies or the so-called analysts. With the precedents halvings, we know that it only happens over the next few months.

As for the economy to recover, it won't happen in 2020 (if we consider all countries generally speaking)

It has been 2 months since we provided you with an update on Bitcoin and some macro economic developments. This is due to the fact that Bitcoin continued its sideways movement in the month of June.

For a long time it seemed that this would also be the case for July. However, Bitcoin has started a strong final sprint to end the month of July very positively.
The last week of July, Bitcoin saw a price appreciation of> 15%.

Now that we are 7 months away in 2020, it seems interesting to us to look back on certain important events month by month, as well as our vision and analysis of these events.

In January, Bitcoin had a blitz start. The price rose more than 30% as the US and Iran were on the brink of war and the Corona virus surfaced in China. However, we mentioned that it remains to be seen whether Bitcoin could take on its role as a macroeconomic tool to absorb economic shocks.
Our analysis also stated that we needed a clear overrun of $ 10,000 before we could break the downward trend. This did not happen and was followed up in the coming months.

February became the month when the Coronavirus started to spread throughout the rest of the world. This was the time when financial markets suffered serious blows. It was our cup of coffee to see if Bitcoin could distance itself from traditional markets as an uncorrelated asset. This is why we never adjusted our allocation.
February was also the month in which central banks announced they would inject stimuli back into the market. We pointed out that this is positive for Bitcoin in the long term.

The month of March will go down as the month when the world went into lockdown and entire economies were shut down. As a result, central banks that took unseen measures to maintain the market artificially. Here we underestimated the strength of central banks. We expected a further decline in the stock market. The reverse has happened and stock markets worldwide, especially in the US, have made up for the full corona crash.
Where we were correct is that Bitcoin, as an alternative to the current system, would come out positive.
Bitcoin reached a bottom price of $ 3,800 on March 13. Today we clock at a price of $ 11,500. An increase of more than 200%. Even for Bitcoin, this is unprecedented.
We also looked back to 2008 where we saw the same pattern in gold and silver. A huge decline for precious metals in the beginning of the crisis followed by a huge price increase. Gold has now reached its highest point ever and silver also experienced a huge price increase.

During April we saw a continuation of the trend that had already started at the end of March. Namely a further revival of so-called risk assets such as shares and Bitcoin while the entire world was in lockdown.
The market had clearly priced in a worst-case scenario in which health systems would perish worldwide. As a result, a higher mortality rate. Except for a few exceptions such as Italy and Spain, this turned out not to be the case.
So we can conclude that the market was over-reacting to the corona crisis. Together with the injection of central banks, this has ensured that shares, precious metals and Bitcoin have experienced a huge price increase.
In April, we focused once again on the unparalleled characteristics of Bitcoin as a digital scarce commodity in a world of unlimited fiat money. We think this will become even more prominent in the coming years.

In May, the long-awaited Bitcoin halving took place, which halves the reward for Bitcoin miners. However, this became a non-event and its positive effect will only be reflected in the price in the long term. (which may already be evident)


Now that we have looked back at the turbulent past months, we can look forward again. Although it is impossible to predict the future, the previous months have shown that we can create a rough picture.

Corona is still growing in size worldwide. However, it appears to have little or no negative impact on the financial markets. The "promise" of central banks worldwide to continue to provide support seems sufficient for investors to have a positive outlook for the future.
At the European level, a corona fund has been approved containing 750 billion in aid to the affected countries.

For Bitcoin, I see the recent price appreciation as confirmation that the bull market has started. We expect the upward trend since Bitcoin's inception to continue in late 2020 and all of 2021.

Enjoy the month of August!

(These articles are always written by a close friend of me)

This is a weird statement.
It is almost impossible not to recognize the negative impact Corona had in financial markets: the sheer amount of money Central Banks poured on the market acted like a giant fire retardant. The problem is still there, but the immediate and most dramatic consequences (for the financial markets) are only delayed. No surprise then everything rallied: fixed income, equity and commodities (read:gold) are all rallying toward their ATH.
This is perfectly rational: if CB’s keep printing money, it's inevitable the loss of purchasing power, and inflation is going to materialise, sooner or later. So the only place where you don't want your money to be is in cash: "cash is trash" (Ray Dalio) is the new "cash is king". One another way of looking at this is the inflation is already here: it's not markets are at their all time high, but the unit of measure of such markets, money, is at his historical low: it's not that Gold is becoming more precious (or APPL more profitable- ok I might have picked the wrong example here), is that we are measuring it with a shorter and shorter meter.
Sooner or later this decoupling between real and financial markets will close, and this will not be pleasant.
Luckily, if you are reading this, you probably know how to hedge against this.

There is a general opinion that the real effects of the pandemic crisis are yet to be felt in early Q3 and Q4 (2020) and only then will it be seen how well (or badly) anyone has reacted to minimize damage caused to the economy during the lockdown. When there was a sharp decline in all world markets on March 11/12, many said that this was just the beginning, and that we could expect a few smaller but strong enough declines - because there was no logic for the opposite to happen - and now we have a rather strange situation if we look GDP falling almost everywhere - and on the other hand the stock market, gold or Bitcoin have their best days this year. It is logical to assume that this is the result of injecting huge amounts of fresh money into the system, but also to some extent a paradigm shift from the fact that the economy must come first, and then comes the fight against the pandemic.

I wonder if something (even Bitcoin) could be a hedge in case we are hit by the biggest recession in 100 years? Of course, anything other than fiat is a better option in this case - so there will be no better test for Bitcoin than what is being prepared.

Gold has proven a good Store of Value over the last 4,000 Years. It has proven itself against local and global wars, pandemics, discoveries of new worlds (contintents). Bitcoin has been around only since 10 years. It has massive challenges to overcome to be continued proven as a good SoV, but I am confident it will be able to overcome those, one by one, becoming a truly digital, better, gold.

On the other way around bitcoin has established a good stand in the market to all people who knew it, a decade of a great venture, through negative opinions to scam accusations, bitcoin is what I called a 'tilt proof' asset, at least just for me. Gold is seen as the very standard of wealth for ages, bitcoin cannot just take that from gold, and we should not be letting there be to have a two sided idea of which is which. I believe that one day, people will be talking about bitcoin casually. If you said "better gold" rather than " better, gold" I'm gonna completely disagree with that lol. Yearly test coming on its way for bitcoin, what you guys expect this year?

I'd say the market was being perfectly rational at the time. Not only were equities riding a major bubble, but we're talking about literally the biggest GDP drops ever, since we started keeping records anyway. In a free market, this would have been the crash to end all crashes.

That's one of the cruel things about both government interventions and markets in general: they punish the rational.

While I do agree with you in principle, it is actually perfectly rational to buy equities in this context. It's hard to swallow, but the reality is that the decoupling from equities, or financial markets in general, as also Treasuries are nearing bubble valuations, and the real economy, namely the GDP, is perfectly coherent with the massive financial stimulus it has been poured on the economy since 10 years ago, and has now accelerated during the pandemic: all this money printed by the FED has to go somewhere, and first, being real business not available for investment, it had to go on the stock market, secondly, the equities themselves are a good hedge for the prospective inflation many foresee coming, as a consequence of that vey financial stimulus, third, is a TINA (There Is No Alternative) prospect: given equities are rallying, and probably are going to rally even more, you don't want to miss such an opportunity to invest. This is particularly evident from the fact S&P500 is now the S&P5+495...Are we in a bubble?  Probably, can you afford to stay out of the market when NasdaQ is up 20% YtD? No.

That's quite easy to say now, in hindsight, after the Fed pumped $3 trillion in QE (75% of its balance sheet) inside ~3 months, with another $3 trillion in stimulus spending by Congress over the same period. These levels of market intervention were completely unprecedented. We're talking 10x the size of TARP and beyond. It's downright silly to make comparisons to previous generations of QE and say it was rational to buy the knife in March (or not to sell) on that basis.

It's funny, I was one of the only people around here predicting a V-bottom in stocks back in March-April. Now everyone is trying to act like it was so obvious.....

None of us get to say we called it really, Satoshi apparently knew it was going to play out like this way back when this all started.   He had the Hubble telescope of foresight on that one really, most others considered as a 'new' alternate is simple blocks of gold.   We're all way behind that judgement and vision that a better system (https://talkimg.com/images/2023/06/12/Aosy1.png) would be required.    Politics is a very predictable failure and an awful caretaker for any nations savings value, no genius required to observe that.   The timing of when exactly any asset responds to the latest wave of inflation or is taken badly by negative effects of interference which can be deflationary, theres skill in that I think.
   Thats my old SPY chart (https://talkimg.com/images/2023/06/12/Ao3bm.png) which happened to have an old trend match near the bottom and give me some confidence that shorting was not likely profitable risk reward bet from there on.   The volume also spikes near that level which often means it at least pauses as digestion is required.
We're going to find out this word is misplaced, new money isnt free money and theres certainly negatives and value to repay & readjust.   So bumpy ground, volatility is a certainty.   I dont think new highs for BTC this year would represent a positive, that'd make me fear some negatives as its just too broad and large a movement in just 9 months or less.   New highs not being positive might sound like nonsense but we'd achieve far more if regular gains occur per year not just this year, I dont want a spike to occur personally.

People predict all kinds of things.  I find it difficult to understand why so many people want to ascribe ONLY status to themselves... I see this quite a bit.  Maybe I am too sensitive?  Perhaps?


Exactamente!!!!

There are just too many things happening to be saying that you know all the variables, beyond getting lucky or maybe having a lot of the variables right and having a pretty decent sense of probabilities (but likely still getting matters wrong on a regular basis in terms of direction, degree or both.. or just don't specify too much in order to always be right.. there's that, too). 

Nothing can be challenged about gold as a store of value over thousands of years, and all the other applications it has today - but it is crucial that gold has been proven over a very long period of time (in human terms), while on the other hand Bitcoin has yet to prove its worth - and no matter the time we live where things are evolving far faster than 50 years ago, I think it will take at least another 10 years to see how Bitcoin will position itself in relation to already proven things like gold, silver, stocks, real estate...

When I say another 10 years, I mean a total of 20 years from the first block, because Satoshi himself said something along those lines when he wrote: "I'm sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume." How applicable this thesis is, given that Satoshi could not have foreseen everything that has happened so far, and of course what will happen in the future - remains to be seen.

I don't want to be too technical, but of course when oil traded negative or equity dividend were battered of course it was very easy to pickup a good trade.
While expressing views here on the forum you also have to consider who you are talking to: you don't want to say "Go out and buy!The time to buy is when there's blood in the streets!"

It you did experess the V-shaped call, well done! Hope you also profited from this view!



Every day bitcoin has volume, this makes bitcoin more resilient, anti-fragile, and closer to the Shelling-poin of money.

As I said in my third post here (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4545628.msg40921522#msg40921522) onBitcointalk:


Now two years have passed and bitcoin made incredible progresses in the right direction, while the fiat shitcoins have made horrible steps in hte wrong directions. Don't forget that the US Dollar is not 200 years old, but it is only almost 50 years old. You cannot consider the Dollar before the 1971 in the Gold Standard being the same as the Dollar after the end of Gold Standard, that was actually an hidden default.

So yes, we prety much agree on the 2030 date to state the successfulness of the bitcoin experiment. I just added an appointment in my agenda!

It's actually been three years I think! If you're referring to the non-market related community split of mid 2017, the insistence on doing things the way it went despite all the existential threats from politicking forces. And the patient implementation of scaling measures not being pressured, yeah I gotta agree. Practically everything else just made impatient steps, squirming themselves deeper into the quicksand.

I'm definitely still considering this a (so far successful) experiment. Willing to re-assess that in 2030 too;)

Bitcoin is already successful as fuck.


Sure you can set some measure in the future as do or die or as some kind of meaningful measurement, but who cares?

Bitcoin is still progressing, advancing and adding to network effects.

There are also a lot of ways that bitcoin success can be measured, and surely, I bitcoin is far along the spectrum of making progress whether we measure from two years ago, five years ago, or some other interval short of its 11.5 year to nearly 12 year life (whether we are measuring from the release of the white paper or the first block that was subsequently mined).


Why not both?

I can concede that bitcoin is an experiment, and I can proclaim that with even a current status assessment bitcoin is successful as fuck.. maybe even more successful than what could have been imagined at previous prudently attempting to project forward viewpoints.

Of course, another assessment can be made in 2030 to measure where bitcoin is at... which I can also proclaim is a so fucking what?  We will see it when we see it... bitcoin is already successful and who cares about 2030.. except just make sure that you have some bitcoin in case it catches on (which it already has.. hint.. hint... hint)...   :D :D :D :D

I disagree. Most people I know got slaughtered with puts or hedge shorts, thinking April/May was just a temporary bounce. I am talking about seasoned traders here. Hardly what I would call "easy" trading.

You can only say it was easy with the benefit of hindsight, now that you've seen a total reversal since March. At the time, it was anything but. Catching the knife based on conventional wisdom would have been sensible after a 10% decline. .......But then the SPX ended up crashing 36%. That's what being rational gets you: bagholding. And like I said, nobody could have predicted the Fed and Congress were going to inject money an order of magnitude bigger than 2009. It's only in hindsight that we can see the liquidity situation for what it truly is.

One another factor that can turn a good idea in a bloodbath is the stop loss. A too tight stop loss can hinder the execution of a trade closing it too soon, if the timing is not perfect, something that is very likely to happen in a volatile market.

July-September

Dear shareholder,

We would like to inform you about recent developments within the crypto landscape.
We can cautiously conclude that the bear market of the last few years is over. This was characterised by large increases in a number of alt coins and a very stable Bitcoin, which is all in a strong historical level.


The future of Bitcoin looks bright. The block remuneration has already been halved for several months and traditionally we see the effect of this in the current months and towards the end of the year. As always, we are cautious about price forecasts for the future, but are nevertheless very optimistic given the past six months. Bitcoin's potential as a stable, reserve currency also continues to expand. We saw the company MicroStrategy for hundreds of millions of Bitcoin purchases. They decided after thorough research that it would be more interesting for the company to keep their cash reserves in Bitcoin rather than in fiat currencies such as US Dollars or Euros. You, as an investor in *****, made this choice a few years ago. It is good to see a listed company with hundreds of millions of passive capital making the same switch. In short, the outlook for Bitcoin and the entire crypto market looks good in our view.


This recent price increase within alt coins and stability within Bitcoin can be attributed to a new development within the crypto landscape with the abbreviation: DeFi. DeFi stands for Decentralized Finance and is a collective term for financial projects that use cryptocurrency. The innovative aspect is that these projects work together and that a link of financial primitives is formed. The emergence of decentralized exchanges that act as an automated market maker, allowing anyone with an ethereum wallet to switch between cryptocurrencies easily and securely, without the involvement of third parties, is a major breakthrough. The user himself can also make his cryptocurrency available for this exchange. He will then receive a portion of the costs that others pay when they switch between cryptocurrencies as a reward. If you make your cryptocurrency available in this way, it is possible to generate passive income. You can then demonstrate this availability and use it in other projects for even more passive income. A complex web of links and financial opportunities is emerging and evolves daily. This is truly a revolutionary breakthrough that we have actually been waiting for for several years, namely, the productive use of cryptocurrency in the crypto economy.

It is true that this is a very new evolution. The risks are indeed present. Mainly technical risk, where a system appears to contain errors and can lead to loss of funds. That is why we are in a difficult situation inside *****. On the one hand, we would like to participate in these lucrative activities. On the other hand, this could be too high a risk. What if such a project goes completely wrong and we incur significant losses? Since all the profits that would be made would go entirely to the portfolio of *****, we should also put all possible losses there. This scenario may be unacceptable to some shareholders.

With my personal capital I have been exploring this new sector for several weeks. We build up knowledge and we can also use this knowledge for ***** if desired. I therefore appeal to you, as a shareholder of *****, to let me know your opinion by e-mail. If you are confident in a further mobilization of the funds within ***** and would like to bear the extra risk of this, please send me an email at *****. You can also let me know if you explicitly do not want this activity to be used. I will then take into account the different opinions.

As always, your capital is in safe and responsible hands. With due diligence I watch over the portfolio and ensure that it meets the expectations of you as a shareholder. Hence the hesitation in simply increasing the risk profile of the investment.

I also have to apologize for the temporary malfunction of the dashboard. You may have noticed this in the chart above. For a while the price data was no longer displayed. This was due to a technical defect and has since been resolved. The development and maintenance of the dashboard is done by a freelance developer and this is not always available. Obviously, this defect has no impact on the value of your investment.

Finally, we would like to add that past results are no guarantee of future returns. This newsletter also does not contain investment advice.

(written by a close friend of me)

Well, for what's worth i see this way: sideways into triangle with some short term bearish bias:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/HsBnWOIK/

Triangle breakout will ignite next move ( eyes on MM20/W ).
Whatever, so far trend on monthly may still play like this:

https://www.tradingview.com/i/RrHtEhX3/

A bull run would require reaching (first place) about 12.800$, hence triggering Parabolic SAR reversal + piercing of upper BB.

Very Interesting. Of course I don't know anything about who wrote this or the institution he represents, but only knowing that they are looking into DeFi, puzzles me.
He's correct stating that the main, non addressable risk is the technical one: smart contract are complicated, and code auditing is a long, slow and risky process. And losing client money because a technical fault is even worse that losing it for bad trading, I would say.

Octobre-Novembre, fund update...

The last few weeks have been phenomenal for cryptocurrencies. We have seen a very large appreciation of especially Bitcoin and Ethereum, the second leading cryptos. This increase was always in our expectations, as we have also indicated in previous posts. We have been very bullish for several months now. We suspect this is the first phase of a new bull run, which historically has a target well above the previous apex. We saw this previous peak at around USD 20,000 in 2017, but this was a very temporary snapshot. The price has only stayed at this level for a very short time and this peak was the ultimate expression of a gigantic run-up and buying mania. Today's price is close to our pinnacle at the time, but now the price action is much more stable and much more sustainable. The last months have shown a very strong market with an even more positive outlook than previous months. The phases that will unfold in the coming year are the reason why you are investing in these coins to experience exponential growth and to enjoy truly parabolic price appreciation.

Our strategy for the coming year is as follows. The main portion of the portfolio will always remain invested in Bitcoin. We invest a second piece in Ethereum, a clearly lonely pursuer with its own story and potential. Furthermore, we are rearranging the portfolio to add some of the most promising altcoins. We focus on certain altcoins that can already present a certain market penetration and that have gathered a strong community around them. It is in 2020 that when it comes to altcoins and the direction they are heading, the wheat will be separated from the chaff. It's now easier to see where there is traction and where future inventions and innovation will take place. In previous years this vision was much more obscure.

The intention is to convert part of our crypto into euros in the event of a large, significant appreciation. So in this way we are going to try to play big swings up and down, but in an extremely careful and thoughtful way. As an end owner, you do not have to worry about sales. We understand that at some point you may want to make profits because you see the market rising sharply. But you can rest assured that we are busy realizing this profit ourselves and, if possible, buying it back cheaper. There is a risk that the currencies will appreciate even further in value and we will end up on the sidelines with part of the portfolio. Regardless, this is not the first time we have experienced this market cycle, our strategy is clear and we are confident in our ability to navigate the best we can in the coming months.


Written by a close friend

Hopefully, it will last longer than the 2017 period. It was an exciting period during the ascent until it suddenly collapsed. I don't think we'll reach the same level despite the fact that some speculate on almost surrealist rates https://twitter.com/BTC_JackSparrow/status/1250770006633091072 but we'll see. At least for some time now it's starting to get more interesting.

Off-topic question but do you know what is their portfolio and how it is split?

https://i.imgur.com/4154A7Mm.png

I think it's something like this atm
But the fund is mostly for people who doesn't know to much about BTC-crypto or elder people, but whom still wanna be involved whiteout any headache or issues or whatsoever ...

We had a year of insanity in 2017. Tested the previous ATH in January, bubbled popped in December. Before that we had a good 1.5 years of a tamer bull market. Seems like a long time to me, at least in Bitcoin Land.

I honestly don't want more than a year of bubble type action. It completely takes over your life, at least if you're a trader. Too many opportunities and excitement in front of the computer to actually go out and enjoy life. :D

The Asset portfolio changed a bit

https://i.imgur.com/TzewSQH.png

Indeed, making money is important (as some say money doesn't make happy...) imo its not true, just need a good balance of enjoying the comfort and abilities of the money and maybe don't try to catch all of the money, to have above average and being able to do things with does you love is most important, eventually time will catch every one of us, so spend that time very balanced and very well.

The sudden increase was caused by everyone, it was a great moment I hope that we can have higher and higher levels this year as well. However do not mistake 2018 with what is ahead of us. 2018 was the year we had many many bad stuff that resulted with the drop, for example the biggest two things we can name will be mt.gox trustee selling all the coins they had in order to pay some of the debt back, which is an ethically good move but financially an idiotic one.

Or maybe multiple exchanges being hacked, or companies like amazon going into crypto in 2017 but getting out in 2018. There are tons of things we can count that shows 2018 was just a bad year, it wasn't really about bitcoin itself.

December update

Dear shareholder,

Today we look back briefly on 2020, but we mainly look forward to 2021.

2020 will go down in history as the year of Corona. However, we want to look back on the past year in a positive way.

2020 will also go down in history as the year in which Bitcoin came to the fore in the financial markets, something we have been anticipating with ****** for a number of years.

It seems more and more that the pandemic has awakened investors.

The realization has come that there is a need for an alternative form of money.

A form that does not tolerate interference from central entities, a form that allows anyone in the world to transfer value across the internet.

A form of which the issue has been mathematically determined in advance.

Where in 2017 we saw a refuge from the retail investor in Bitcoin and the Crypto market as a whole, today we see a tsunami of institutional interest.

This explains the huge price increase in the past quarter. These institutions have a huge amount of money available that they can allocate to Bitcoin.

Bitcoin has already well exceeded its 2017 high. This caught us a bit in speed but we can of course only applaud this!

We only mention Bitcoin here because it is often the only option for institutions that they look at. This mainly has to do with the fundamental value of Bitcoin as well as the liquidity required to absorb large positions.

These institutions mainly have a long-term vision, which gives us great confidence for the future.

We are very excited about what 2021 has in store. The ideal breeding ground is there to propel Bitcoin to unseen heights.

Central banks and governments have already announced that they will not deviate from their policies. The monetary experiment will begin a new chapter in the next decade.

This combined with a huge increase in the demand for Bitcoin as well as a decrease in the supply can only lead to fireworks.

Traditionally, we don't make predictions about the price of Bitcoin. However, the growth margin up is still very significant. As an investor, you have had to wait for several years. Often your position was at a loss for a long time. Fortunately, this market cycle is behind us and we can enjoy a better outlook.

As always, we follow the market closely and try to anticipate certain developments. When opportunities arise, we will seize them with both hands.

We wish you a happy end of year and a prosperous 2021!

2021 Q1 Update
Dear shareholders,

We've had an absolutely fantastic quarter. The price of Bitcoin has doubled in the last three months and had risen seriously before that. We have been spoiled for choice with positive news such as Tesla purchasing Bitcoin to track as a long-term investment. Slowly, large companies and institutions are also realizing how important it is to invest at least a part in Bitcoin. The amount of dollars and euros that have been printed in the last year also has to do with this. Bitcoin is one of the few assets that cannot simply be devalued by producing more of it.

At **** we have seen this trend form for years and we have responded to this a long time ago. 2021 seems to be the year where our wildest dreams in terms of Bitcoin valuation will come true. We anticipate a further increase as companies, banks and pension funds do their research and gradually start positioning themselves as the unwieldy structures that they are to also get their piece of Bitcoin. With your investment in **** you were ahead of them a few years, despite the negative press and the discouragement of so-called experts.

In the last 6 months, we at **** also started to diversify back into altcoins. While these other cryptos have outperformed slightly more secure Bitcoin during the 2018-2019 declining market, some have the potential to outperform as we are in a rising market. This diversification has already paid off. For example, Bitcoin's share of the portfolio fell from about 87% to below 80% due to the relative appreciation of cryptos such as DOT, SOL and ETH.

The future for 2021 looks bright. We do not have a crystal ball, but we feel that the industry as a whole is a lot more mature than in 2017-2018, where there was a big increase with an accompanying crash. In the meantime, we still see lasting trends that hide sustainable business models. They will not just disappear and most of the world has yet to get to know them. There is still a lot of room for growth and at **** we will try to take maximum advantage of this as always. As a shareholder, you still don't have to do anything. When Bitcoin goes again times 2 or times 3 from this point on, it may be appropriate to sell part of it. It all depends on what your current financial situation is. Has your investment in **** now become a significant part of your global portfolio? Then you probably still have gains that can seriously improve your quality of life. If your investment in **** is still a smaller portion of your investment portfolio, then you are more likely to want to keep this exposure.

Always keep in mind that the amounts you see in the dashboard are still gross amounts. This means that performance costs and taxes are still owed on this. This can sometimes lead to surprises when actually getting out. So don't count yourself too rich yet.

We thank you for your continued confidence and hope to achieve great results together with you in the future.

Finally, we would like to add that past results are no guarantee for future returns. This newsletter also does not contain investment advice.


Written by my friend for his fund shareholders.

Finally after 3 months... :P


Greatly resumed by the way.

It's true Tesla gave us a positive trend for the BTC's price, as well as Microstrategy. And it's all that we need about. During the current year, if we could see 4 or 5 other companies doing the same, it could be a jackpot. $80,000 would become easily too hit. Without talking about an increase in the adoption from the average Joe
Even the so-called experts who were making fun of BTC will finally invest themselves in it. LOL

what could help to make it more mature is the government stopping to deny it and the banks start to offer BTC as an alternative investment in their portfolio, like a few banks in Germany

Indeed, such offerings would drive the price up high, just as government which would invest in BTC...