Bitcoin Forum

In recent months , we've seen :

1) Yield curve flip
2) Trade Wars
3) Quantitative easing ( more money printing )
4) Experts talk up gold

What does this all mean for Bitcoin ?

I discuss here : https://youtu.be/UPyo0n51qJA

It mostly means the same, Bitcoin is similar to the precious metals market, but not exactly the same. Sometimes when the economy is bad, and they seek refuge in metals, they also seek refuge in Bitcoin. On the other hand, give current Bitcoin low price, it might even be quite smart move.

In my opinion, it does mean nothing about Bitcoin and in what my knowledge have known you can not lump Bitcoin with typical trading with the foreign exchange market I don't know about the yield curve flip that you are saying but in a decentralized manner you can not print more blocks of Bitcoin because it is limited that is why it keeps its value high, and the volatile manner of Bitcoin keeping experts talk not about gold but they are looking on other Cryptocurrency that is also volatile, I guess even with the risk traders liked the volatility in the crypto space.

True the economic indicators have nothing on cryptocurrencies at all but just Artemis when the global  markets and economies turn sour and there is a lot of panic, investors tend to go towards to gold and silver and maybe should there another global crisis,  people may turn to Bitcoins when they start to invest in precious minerals.

I would say that there's no correlation whatsoever. Just look at what's going on in Hong Kong, initially there are speculations that bitcoin will go up because wealthy Chinese are going to hedge their money in bitcoin and so far we hadn't had that case as the price did go down after the all the on going political and economic turmoil in China-Hong Kong, not to mentioned Brexit and US-China trade wars. Bitcoin though could be a good hedge or as store of value but perhaps many investors are getting into golds or any other precious metals.

We have seen how bitcoin is very different from forex market and stock market. Its volatility is nothing to be compared to and it does not get affected so easily by economic indicators. I have noticed that economic indicators as well as bitcoin news have now low impact on bitcoins value compared to before. The only thing that can really impact bitcoin is when a big whale deposits or withdraws a large amount of bitcoin from the exchange. If a big chunk of bitcoins will enter the exchange the expectancy for the value to go down is very high. Right now monitoring the whale wallets is much more of a concerned rather than economic indicators.

I think all of them have absolutely zero value to how the Bitcoin prices moves, except the 2nd one.

Trade wars (like what's happening to China and the USA) are a big problem and they are actually helping out crypto-currencies since people want something safe to hold their money in. We saw this with increased volume from Hong Kong when they had issues with China and I do think it's gotten some people to pick up some coins for a cheap price.

It's very different to the regular market and that's probably why the other factors aren't factors to bitcoin.

They just mean one thing: The environment is always ready for Bitcoin to make a good run soon. When people are feeling jittery about any development, they can be seeking safe haven for their wealth and they will be looking at gold and Bitcoin. Old gold fans may not be agreeing with Bitcoin that much but younger population may consider Bitcoin as a very viable digital asset that has similarities to gold but differs in some aspects. The trade wars and quantitative easing are not good for the economy, generally speaking though politicians can say otherwise. Gold is expected to rise in price especially in 2020, just in time for the possible bull run of Bitcoin. Can we say then that Bitcoin is the new digital gold? You bet.

I don't think they do because when people predict according to the real world conditions they actually end up predicting something that will never come true in fact and the opposite happens , we can take example of the halving it was very obvious and people thought the price would genuinely go up during this time but unfortunately since that time the price is going down and down so I think there is no indicator that might work for bitcoins and other cryptocurrencies.

Can we say that Bitcoin has become a real alternative to current financial investments, in the sense that investments may flow to it in the event of political or economic uncertainty? If yes, all the above effects will have meaning and then the effect of each effect can be measured separately.
Unfortunately, bitcoin cannot be considered an alternative because of the difficulty of predicting price trends and rapid fluctuations that make reliance on them "in uncertainty" closer to gambling.
Many tend to play on the safe side, so the money will not be much in agreement, especially those that are linked to loans or daily basics.
Institutional funds are often governed by statutory laws and regulations. The absence of such legislation limits the ability of these institutions to invest.

I am thinking allot about the money printing,  as by far, it is indicating the the world needs more fiats as the economy needs it. If that is so, then more people will have much of their fiats compared to bitcoin or crypto. But in other way, we might also think that these huge volume could be the reason why cryptocurrency will become better as people will have more fiat to convert. In simple words, it was really hard to co-relate the economy made by fiats to the economy that we will going to make through the help of cryptocurrency.

Economic indicators certainly put their footprint on the Bitcoin price, but we can't really measure the impact. I see it like this: in order for more money to pour into the cryptocurrency marketcap & implicitly Bitcoin people should be financially healthy. Be sure that the average american who does not know much about cryptocurrencies besides that they are risky won't put any money in them if they can barely make the next month bill. On the other side, if the population would clearly see that their fiat money is losing power dramatically on a regular basis they would certainly be looking for a deflationary currency like Bitcoin is. But most people are not even aware of the inflation or don't care about it until they'll see the consequences themselves.

the more complicated system is - the more likely it is to fail, and current financial system is so complicated that economists argue all the time what effect will this change bring or that change bring... and yet they cannot predict recessions anyway

(Other than people who always criticize some subject, like Mr Doom - really, not hard to be right if you keep saying "recession will come" over and over again. Sooner or later you will be right)

So this alone is a reason to believe in Bitcoin - far far more clear and simple system to understand.

In short, all those things point towards the financial crisis in the big markets. The moment the world feels that printed money is losing its value (Dollar in particular), they will have only one option and that is to convert their money into bitcoins. This already happened in Venezuela and Iran, where their local currency fell too much and they converted to digital currency.

I think that if the economic indicator goes against fiat, then it is likely to favour bitcoin. For example, if for instance war times do make a country lose value in their currency because production won't continue and export that can generate foreign exchange will be reduced or not present at all and standard of living will fall. So this will affect the country's currency. In this kind of situation, it is expected that bitcoin will become the safe house to hide your money. So the price is most possible to increase.

Thavash mentioned about printing USDs worth more than Billions or something a month. How is that going to help the economy when printing every dollar has to be backed by gold? It be have less value in the end and its one of the recipe that will make this financial crisis to really happen. One thing that a bitcoin believer will think of is Bitcoin will eventually be the Gold.20 as he claimed but that because he himself is a bitcoin believer. Things are still uncertain. Printing as much USD a month may not even be true, that's just in the paper news.

the bitcoin market is still largely driven by retail investors. it will respond to macro trends like a pronounced recession (because investors have increasingly limited disposable capital or are losing their jobs). so it'll follow the stock market down when the crash actually hits.

it probably won't respond to leading economic indicators like these before the fact.

I believe instead of economic effects what will cause is a higher level of awareness regarding money among society.

Generally, people live their lives and take for granted their money will always be a store of value, a medium of exchange, etc.

But if you live in countries with hyperinflation you understand very well what happens when your government manipulates its currency as it wants.

Even in societies where money management is more conscious, eventually, people end up being affected by their governments.

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I agree with you and I also think that will be the perfect time to get a lot of Bitcoins, although no one can predict exactly what will happen.

Economic indicators have nothing to do with bitcoin prices, so whatever happens the economy will have no big effect which is 
against the price of bitcoin. What affects the price of bitcoin is whales, because whales have a large capital. So once a transaction
will affect the price of bitcoin, for example whales make a deposit then the price of bitcoin will automatically rise and if the whales
withdraw, the bitcoin price will automatically go down. My conclusion economic indicators do not affect bitcoin directly.

I have not seen yet any formal study(s) that tackles this subject matter and its too early to say or assert anything since there is a broad set of indicators that may or may not affect Bitcoin!

Moreover, I think Bitcoin and crypto evolution is just getting started and there are many economic factors that are  still unknown that may influence it, so I guess we will see this a few more years especially when the academe conducts more studies on these correlations.  Imho.

There's no proper indicators that will accurately point the reason why market will move to any certain directions, we do need to keep basing things with personal experiences that will allow us to entrust our investment. No wonder how things got anticipated by most of those successful traders which also basing everything with past  experiences and let them to win from every position that they've place.

Let’s not generalized bitcoin on this point because we all knew that wrong even covered 1/4 of the people in the world to accumulate or even know what bitcoin is all about so comparing or making both fiat and bitcoin a choice is not in related
For me there’s no favor bitcoin take from this instead it’s the economic problem of each government and bitcoin has other problem as well

So let’s lave the problem to the government and let’s face our own here in crypto

I don't think it's affecting much, you know there's very low co-relation between the economic factors with cryptocurrency, cryptocurrency is yet to be a part of the national economy of any country.
There's a little co-relation with gold market though.

It would be better if you had shared some info here.

statements about that topic I don't seem to be able to consider the right or wrong economic indicators supporting bitcoin but I don't think it has anything to do with cryptocurrency because we know that bitcoin is the first coin made and bitcoin is made with limited supplies unlike the fiat currency that can be printed every day to be traded and bitcoin present itself is made by satoshi without help from the government and other economies.

That’s why it’s  funny how people made a big connection when they talk about fiat economy and cryptocurrency,since these 2 has different purpose and function,yeah they are currency created to help humans but they have different ways to appreciate
Not unless the mass adaptation happens and the crypto is accepted from merchants and governments establishments then that is different story and may consider related in future but for now?no there is no effect for bitcoin

Present economic conditions is favoring Bitcoin. US vs China trade war. Brexit in EU. Turkey's new sanctions. Venezuela's economic and political mess. These events are affecting most fiats directly or indirectly. Some financial analysts will pick the neutral Bitcoin over these unstable fiats. Bitcoin is unstable itself but free government politics and nations drama. 

I think with the current capitalization of the cryptocurrency, which is only 200 billion dollars, the impact of global economic factors on this young market is not so significant. So far, the cryptocurrency market is not very popular and if someone wants to buy a cryptocurrency for diversity, I think he does it for a smaller part of his portfolio. The cryptocurrency market is considered a risky investment and many buys cryptocurrency, realizing that it is an unreliable investment.

It basically means that the old Fiat system <Banking & Government> are up to their old tricks again. They did not learn anything from the 2008/2009 near economic collapse and all the mistakes that were done to lead up to that.  >:( 

The US Reserve are trying everything in their power to boost the US economy and to prevent a repeat of the 2008 problems, but the financial industry are simply ignoring the past mistakes and they are just making more mistakes. <Why, because there was no consequences for their previous mistakes, they just got bailed out by taxpayers money when they f#$%ed up.>  >:(

All their bad decisions just push more people to "store of value" options like Bitcoin.  ;)

If you look at global economy today, you will notice that there is a slowdown. There is a possibility of impending recession. In such a scenario, people look for alternative investment options which isn't affected by the global recession. If you have noticed, you must know that btc has little or no correlation to the trends going worldwide. Btc can be a decent alternative investment in such a case.

It seems to me that the price of bitcoin does not depend on something specific, rather it is an uncontrolled financial element

make sense. we'd probably see it clearer if governments itself owns BTC this time and that its not just the Ukraine who will rush the legalization of cryptocurrencies in their country. or this financial crises are just going to keep on going as a matter of fact, satoshi released this BTC and blockchain the time after the 2008/09 economic collapse to probably solve it for once.

I think this indicators does not effect Bitcoin at all. Gold is a very powerful option but Bitcoin is going on the pathway of gold. I believe it will reach gold's level in 10 or 15 years too.

They do favor it and apart from the indicators you've pointed out there's so many little things happening that give us a hint how valuable Bitcoin can be.
One of those indicators is the recent Bank of America failure where all ATMs and terminals shut down. It happened just now, when systems are supposed to have backups and stuff. Once people realize how easy it is to lose access to money held on centralized accounts they'll turn to Bitcoin. Gold would be fine but you can't pay with it. And what about sending it to someone abroad? It's never going to win over Bitcoin.

This is just a consqeuence of the US government manipulating the economy so their own economy will be able to flourish again. Most large countries like China and US have already slowed in GDP growth in the recent years due to a technical "hardcap", whilst advanced economies with space to move are able to still grow.

Likely just Trump/USA and China being shit-heads. Both are in the wrong here, too much information to summarise this - just google it.

Wasn't this always the case?

This is just going to push more members to BTC and other cryptocurrencies as methods of storage.