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Title: secular and cyclic model with forecast Post by: kellrobinson on November 02, 2019, 10:43:04 PM On the first bitcoin price chart below, the red and green parabolas are equivalent, with the green parabola shifted to the left 45 months.
The red parabola is defined by D = 114.4 * ( 1.65 + log (usd price) )^2 Where D is days elapsed since Sept 8, 2010. Map time onto time. As illustrated by the yellow line, 2014-07-01 maps to 887 days: the horizontal distance between that day's data point and the support line. https://hardworkandlowpay.files.wordpress.com/2019/10/intro-1.png?w=937 The transformation abstracts price data from the chart and makes the chart linear. Now we examine bitcoin’s cyclical behavior and model it. The function shown in yellow below has a period of 1390 days, roughly bitcoin’s halving time. https://hardworkandlowpay.files.wordpress.com/2019/10/lineartest.png?w=937 Move back to the USD domain https://hardworkandlowpay.files.wordpress.com/2019/10/dailyconcatshift2.png?w=937 and extrapolate. https://hardworkandlowpay.files.wordpress.com/2019/10/dailyconcat2-3.png?w=937 Another view of the time transform: https://hardworkandlowpay.files.wordpress.com/2019/11/straight.png?w=937 Title: Re: secular trend and cyclic model Post by: kellrobinson on November 02, 2019, 10:43:19 PM reserved
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