Bitcoin Forum

Fundamental Analysis is used to identify speculation in markets. The creation cost is the "invested" wholesale price, crypto only very rarely touches this line. Historical proofs are located in the analysis.

I send out this information every week on Monday. My website:

https://www.amsinger.org/

I have been hesitant to post this, but recently I realized no one else can make this analysis. Plus I am constantly improving.

I am happy to respond to constructive criticism.

Thanks guys and girls. I hope you find value in it.

Aaron Singer

Nice fish on the first page, and overall a good analysis.

Thank you very much. It has taken me years to develop this understanding.

I forgot to put the discount code for btctalk on here.

Use the code TALK to get 20% off any sub.

This analysis is the only way to truly understand what is happening in crypto. It DOESN"T have to be so difficult!

Aaron

https://www.amsinger.org/subscriptions

PDF safe according to virustotal.

https://www.virustotal.com/gui/url/07201b2330f91c6602bcd3ba2f25358c8f066320212d5cd60a46a5bf7583aa2d/detection


Apparently reddit only worth 10% discount, i did find that amusing. :D

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/dsin32/missed_longshort_opportunities_over_6_months/


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5199245.msg53002239#msg53002239

Thank you so much for verifying it!

And reddit ain’t $hit vs bitcointalk lol

Your analysis is based on creation cost, but creation cost does not affect supply, so it can't affect the price.

The production of bitcoins is predetermined by the protocol. It is not affected by the cost of creation. Since the production is predetermined, then the total supply is predetermined. Therefore, it follows that the creation cost does not affect the price.

This is misinformation. New btc, Bch, eth, ltc, and dash are made each day. Your argument is false.

You are thinking the wrong way.
Odolvlobo is saying that a predetermined number of bitcoins is going to be produced everyday, not matter the cost. This is a fact, you cannot disagree with it , you can only fail to understand.

However, I partially disagree with him that it doesn't affect the supply. It does, because a lot of bitcoins are mined everyday and they go straight to Exchanges to cover miner's costs. It does affect supply, not entirely, but it does

However the price of any asset is not only determined by it costs or any rational argument you can think about. The price of every asset, like gold, stocks, bitcoins, bonds, etc are determined by the market's sentiment about its future.
Every price of every asset is speculative. This is why you can see sp500 drop 5% in a day for example (because the sentiment about us future changed, not because companies are 5% worse).

The same with Bitcoin, obviously. If energy and hardware costs were the biggest factor to consider when thinking about the price, bitcoin volatility would be minimum


Edit: let me illustrate. Let's suppose there is a huge rumor about a terrorist attack in a hydro dam in China. This would affect all energy cost in China, a big mining farm. However, the energy price is still the same now.

This would certainly affect Bitcoin price. Miners would antecipate themselves and charge more on each Bitcoin mined.
However, China government was fast enough to prevent the attack. Energy cost never changed. Bitcoin price got back to normal, but only after or spiked (due to bad sentiment about the future, which was not confirmed and it came back to normal later. Energy cost never changed, but price did)

My analysis is fundamental. It predicts the natural buy and sell pressure of the market. I’ve designed it to be used in tandem with other trading strategies.

It’s not able to predict manipulation or event driven trades. It tells people when crypto is expensive or cheap.

Thanks for your contribution!

Aaron

the analysis has merit.. (though i do hold positive bias to the formulae its based on wink wink)
the whole cost of creation is important because if someone has $10k and wants bitcoin they can choose to mine or just buy
when its cheaper to mine they will mine and then sell.. causing price drop

when its not so cheap to mine and inconvenient at the time to start mining they will just buy, causing a price ris

adding to this. when mining and price are soo close that there is no profit in it they wont sell (hlping creating a support line)
they also wont sell at a loss

thus in a scenario of

C:M (cost:market)
$6k:$9k more people are ready to sell for 3k extra
$6k:$8k less people are ready to sell for 2k extra
$6k:$7k even less people are ready to sell for 1k extra
$6k:$6k no people are ready to sell for 0k extra

$6k:$9k less willing to buy at 3k premium.. but lots of people want to mine
$6k:$8k slightly more people are ready to buy a 2k premuim. less wanting to mine
$6k:$7k even more people are ready to by for only 1k extra. even less wanting to mine
$6k:$6k lots of people are ready to buy for 0k extra. less see point of mining if thy can just buy at same cost

but here is one important thing to take note of
this analysis is not for the minute by minute swings as it takes time for the scenario to play out and sway peoples emotions of whats cheap and expensive. but if overall of a 3month average
the market price has a high speculation layer of hype/profit. many are ready to sell.. less ready to buy
the market price has a low speculation layer of hype/profit. many are ready to buy.. less ready to sell

You've been talking about this since March this year, and I don't see anyone agreeing with your ideas. it proves your theory is not good, maybe you should think of other things and forget about your theory.


So why the price dropped to $3000? when the price was $ 3000 I heard a certain mining company say that the price must be above $ 9500 for the mining to be profitable again (I don't know if this mining company was telling the truth or not)

Very nice analysis from my view I don't think you are new here or you are new to cryptocurrency however I don't think you are the only on that can make such article. Some people can even do better

The historical btc shows what happened last winter. The creation cost took a 50% haircut 10 days before the price tanked 50%. There was no support at 6k and all the support was at 3.2k (btc historical is in the btc section of the analysis)

Franky1 you are truly a rose among thorns ;) Deepest respect and appreciation

actual history of events
cost was ~$5.6k and market price was $6k-$8k during that summer

then mining cost dropped to $3k in october thus this causd the market price to sway negative as the profit margin was super high.. which resulted in the market price dipping to ~$4k in november

sepember-october was the whole cheap bitmain S9=chap mining.. also newer s15=cheaper mining

have a good day

Perhaps, but I’ve been developing my understanding of crypto prices for 7 years. I have 3 years of direct trading experience. I have been honing my algo for 1 year. I’ve been an entrepreneur for 8 years, and I don’t think many people can match my aquarium photography lol.

I’m not saying no one else can make an algo, but of equal quality? Plus they would need to update their efficiencies regularly. They would have to understand crypto mining, and have a deep understanding of the crypto markets. I’m a few years ahead.

But I love competition! Bring it boys and girls!

Aaron

aaron here is another tip for another algo
bitcoin richlist
increase and decrease of exchange hoards indicate if mor people are depositing or withdrawing from exchanges. which indicates the supply.
not so accurate. but its a kind of extra indicies to include with other indicies
(coins held in addresses of 100 coins or more)

EG if there are 2 separate days where
C:M= $6k:$9k with 0.7m on exchange address richlist
C:M= $6k:$9k with 1.7m on exchange address richlist
a sell off is impending

C:M= $6k:$6k with 1.7m on exchange address richlist
C:M= $6k:$6k with 0.7m on exchange address richlist
the sell off has ended and new buyers ar taking coins oout, not intending to sell any time soon

anyway you have don very good at understanding the fundementals
atleast you have not fallen into the TRENDS of 'history repeats itself cos random angle line says so'

your learning and understanding TECHNICAL analysis and not falling for TREND analysis. which is good

I will put it on my list with that utxo suggestion you gave me a while back!

My mid term plan for my business is to build the complete commodity analysis for crypto (fundamentals + [actual] technical analysis). I see crypto as a developing global commodity. Personally I don’t see it for anything but an eventual global commodity (credit cards and central banks are “good enough” imho). Plus I have some larger plans for the future.

This is where my entrepreneurial experience plays the most important part: I must develop the business of cutting through the nonsense in crypto first. Then layer by layer build the fun stuff (developed technical analysis, effective real-time algo trading, hedge fund open to global people, global liquidity systems, etc). Finding the market and the customers has been more difficult than I expected, but people aren’t as experienced in crypto as I am, and because the market is so crazy it allows false ideas to grow. The market has to catch up to the idea ;)

It took me around 7 months to gain personal complete confidence in my current algo (it was always high, but time is necessary). I will be posting some adventures in my journey later today explaining how I gained 100% confidence. I can’t expect people to immediately see what I know to be true.

I want to explore every nook and cranny of crypto, especially if you suggest it. Time and effective work are the solutions to all problems.

Aaron

My pleasure!

It is pretty much the support for the technical analysis. Once we, the traders conduct a technical analysis, we usually backed it with a fundamental analysis that will increase the chance of our decision to become winning. In addition, technical analysis sometimes is enough to predict a market price. Especially if we are having a piece of massive news out from cryptocurrency space that is pretty sure will provide us with a decent income in trading.

Fundamental analysis shows the natural buying pressure, to identify the quick moves technical analysis is needed.

I made it to be a compliment to a professional traders system.

Aaron

Nothing I wrote is false. New coins are made each day, but the cost of their creation does not affect the price. Try showing a flaw in my argument rather than just dismissing it as "misinformation".


If they choose to buy instead, the difficulty will fall, allowing other miners to mine and not buy
If they choose to mine, the difficulty will rise, causing other miners to stop mining and buy.
In both cases, the demand does not change, so the price does not change.


Miners will sell at a loss. They must sell in order to cover their costs. Also, if traders never sell at a loss, wouldn't the price still be at $20,000?

Your argument breaks down because it assumes that because supply increases are predetermined it means the costs of acquisition are predetermined. A single current gen asic costs thousands of dollars. Mining companies have dumped billions of dollars into securing land, mining equipment, and electricity to make a bitcoin.

The mega miners have spent this money in order to secure a portion of new bitcoin at the creation cost. They are willing to spend excess capital/loans/ business connections to acquire any bitcoin that approach their wholesale price. When the price is very high above creation cost they will sell all the coins they make as well as the coins they have held which will naturally decrease an inflated bitcoin price.


This view is only applicable pre ASIC and pre large scale investment, when anyone with a cpu could mine. The miners are invested for a specific amount of time before they can easily shut down. This is billions of dollars of investment here. Not joe bob who is willing to take a 10k write off on his bitcoin mining mistake.


In bitcoin, the most efficient miners do not sell at a loss EVER. That is why my analysis works. For this reason: there are many instances of less efficient miners active that would begin buying well before it hits the lowest creation cost. If you look at my posted analysis bitcoin section you will see there are resistances at various less efficient machine prices which are above the creation cost. It plays off the concept that the miners with the most efficient machines are the smartest players in the game.

I hope this allays your concerns.

Aaron

Only if you know how to interpret the results of these analyses correctly

That’s why I put the simple buy/sell indicator.

It operates off the percent loss to creation cost.
<20% buy
20%-30% hold
>30% sell

I will probably change “expected miner actions” to “natural market pressure” next week.

I will also change the chart to include p/l, p/l %, % to cost to add more clarity ;)

Every week I make improvements.

My october 21 analysis:

https://gallery.mailchimp.com/3e4389721251a38558facb8f5/files/30f0bbda-4397-4173-8165-ae29be6954f2/October_21_PDF.01.pdf

Truly simplified crypto, my ultimate goal.

Aaron

https://www.amsinger.org/

I've read this thread and think you dont know the mindset of mining farms.  If they dont sell at a loss they cant operate on a monthly basis.  The only income they earn is when they sell the bitcoin that they mine.  Miners al.ost dump daily, they dont play to the exchanges and try to be traders.  They are miners pure and simple.

This analysis is definitely useful for crypto industry all together to pre judge when altcoins prices pump

I’m not saying the miners do this (even though they should) I’m saying these are the largest natural forces affecting these markets. This is the only analysis that that identifies the actual speculation in the market at any time.

The miners buy when the price  approaches the creation cost. They sell when the price is high above the creation cost. It is logical. The analysis simplifies crypto.

Aaron

The numbers are so bullish on ltc, it’s insane.

The upward potential of ltc right now is remarkable. The creation cost can easily grow to $150 as it was after the halving. There are $84 million of litecoin miners on standby right now. It is the smart play currently.

The numbers don’t lie,

Aaron

What do you mean its logical?  Miners dont buy and sell as large traders.  The mine, and insta sell most of the large ones at least.  There is no buying or selling based on creation costs.  If they mine at a profit, either close to creation cost or way above it's still the same, they mine and when they hit a block they usually sell.  They need the fiat to keep operating.  I dont get your point and if its relevant here

That’s ok not everybody understands this concept immediately. It is not exactly a simple concept to grasp. That’s why people like me exist, to simplify. I’m sure if you sleep on it you’ll be like “oh shit!” Lol

Aaron

Nope, no I wont.  I'm pretty sure I know how mining farms operate and what they are in business for and how they go about selling their block rewards they hit.  I understand perfectly well this concept doesn't make sense for multiple reasons. 

That’s cool man, you’ve made your point. Hope you have a good day.

New analysis comes out tomorrow!

https://www.amsinger.org/

Know what’s supported, know everything you need to know about crypto.

Aaron

I will be upgrading the efficiencies of all the creation costs next Monday.

I do not trust such analyses, because you can not actually predict the price of bitcoin, no one has managed to do it several times in a row.

a. the main mining farms that set the baseline value have lower costs than everyday joe. what you find is the little hobbiests with higher costs give up first. which is a small fraction of hashing rate but translates to alot of market turbulance.
in short a preference to buy does not translate into a difficulty drop... sorry it just dont
the main mining farms dont just turn off their rigs at the whims of the market. thats for the small hobbiests to play that game.
the main mining farms actually do OTC trades. and its the OTC traders that then play the whims of the markets when pools dont want to sell at a low rate.
maybe i dumbed down things a littlebit too much


from my view its not about predicting a price. its about. to put it in other terms the difference between the wholesale and the retail price.
if there is too much of a gap then that means too much hype/speculation//bubble and not a good time to buy. when the gap is small its good value and good time to buy

again big gap = large potential for a dip
again small gap=small potential for a dip

Market analysis is always good and it can easily act as the basis to enter any trade. I guess it works similarly to whatever forex trading signals move. At times, it becomes very frustrating whenever  market analysis does not go the way  as predicted by specialists behind the speculations.

I don’t predict the price. I tell people the natural market pressure. Whether it makes sense for the whales to be buying, holding, or selling.

And dude, check out my previous posts on 13k sustainability , 11k, etc it’s been massively inflated for a while now. My analysis identifies that.

Lowered prices. Time to scale.