Bitcoin Forum

Direct quote ""Economists at investing giant Vanguard predict over the next 10 years annual U.S. stock market returns will likely average 3% to 5%""

The problem is: Are economists trustworthy or they are just trying to shill you their US stock?

And,

Can crypto beat the annual return of general stock market?

What's your prediction on crypto-economy?

Move this to Economics section yet this topic isnt correlated with Marketplace: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=7.0
On topic reply i would say that it not really ideal on comparing traditional stocks market with crypto market.You are just stressing out yourself.

alright ~~ Thanks bro

It's very hard to believe with these economists words and whatever they express if it's related to stocks and other investment vehicles. You can think of both if you do and since I'm not into US stocks market, I think I'll take their word if they're trying to give mess up opinion about bitcoin.

I agree to dunfida that these two shouldn't be compared. But about the return, we've seen the all time high so I think that's already give you an idea on how tremendous return it could give and how low it could go.

My first rule in finance and investments is to never make decisions based on other people's articles, opinions, etc. ESPECIALLY if they are investment banks they are just trying to bring more money into the market. Don't get caught up in this. If you include inflation the stock market barely grows long term ( taking into account that your portfolio is stable and you're not adjusting it).

In my opinion which should not be regarded as financial advice as I am not a financial advisor, the crypto market is going to radically outperform the stock market in the next years. As a matter of fact I expect an explosion in Bitcoin price in the next couple of years.

I do not think that the average of 5% of the returns on stocks is huge, so this news is possible and therefore possible ratification and denial based on the type of stocks.

It depends on the safe side you want to invest in. Many are not risk-averse, so they use low-risk assets with low returns.
Investing in BTC may be closer to gambling, but bitcoin has proven itself to be one of the best long-term investments.

I don't think my prediction will be neutral, but this vote ----> https://twitter.com/RonPaul/status/1191384535755317249 may give you some information.

And, even if true, will it require people to invest in the entire indice or will people still have to play lucky guess at picking the right stock? At least with crypto, it's easy to pick the winner (Bitcoin) and knowing everything else is likely a gamble doomed to (eventual) failure).

Not investment advice but compounding gives you 4.08% annualised returns at a certain old faucet site for Bitcoin. And if you prefer trusting corporates, lots of interest earning platforms out there.

Or, just sit on your cold wallets and come back after 2030.

I seriously doubt they're trying to "shill" stocks if they're predicting an abysmally low performance like 3-5% per year for the next ten years.  That's low, and it makes me wonder about what they're not saying, perhaps that they expect an economic turndown in the coming years.  And that's probably what we're going to get, too, since the bull market in stocks has been going on for over a decade now.  We're due for a crash.

Can it beat the stock market?  Sure.  Bitcoin is volatile enough that anything can happen, and I do expect that it'll get back to its ATH and above eventually.  But man, it's hard to predict what anything in crypto is going to do in a ten year time frame.  I'm not even going to try, but my inner voice tells me that bitcoin has a damn good chance of outperforming stocks at least in the next couple of years.

I can agree with you on this, crypto is too volatile and high risk, hence high return.

And I do think it will surpass any kind of currency in the future, hoarding my BTC in okex (http://okex.com)

Uhh give source for this at the very least OP? Also, I highly doubt a possible average of 3-5% could save them from the overwhelming growth of BTC. Plus, even if we did believe them, majority would still choose to hold BTC instead though.

Crypto naturally can. It is developing pretty well and I'd suppose many believe that BTC could reach higher heights than it is now. Just look at the amount of investors it has today. I ain't no professional analyst but ai can see that BTC has a pretty high chance of overwhelming the  general stock market.

It will be wrong to compare the cryptocurrency market with the stock market. Because the amount of risk is lower with the stock market and therefore the potential returns will also be lower. On the other hand, with cryptocurrency there is a real chance of losing all of your investment and therefore the expected returns in case everything goes according to the plan will be higher when compared to the other assets. My opinion is that we don't need any comparison. We're better than all of them.

If their predictions do come true, then the rate is just beating the inflation by a few points. Barely much growth for your money.

I think this means people will have to invest more in other assets like crypto if they are to see some profit. Crypto can help because of the wilder fluctuations but that also means it's riskier. If you were unlucky to enter at the wrong time your money can get stuck in for months or even years.

3-3.5% isn't that good, and I'm not really sure if those numbers are that accurate. Most advanced economies like the US & China have already slowed down in economic growth and I'm not sure how their companies will be able to increase their share prices if the outlook for everything is fairly bleak. The big money is in developing countries now, those ones have a lot of room to grow and look huge.

Crypto is definitely going to be a lot bigger than just 3%, but it could also go to shit, so I wouldn't really compare the 2, not really fair.

Let me help others that are looking into this topic. Here's the link below from what I searched

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/06/vanguard-youll-make-less-money-in-the-market-over-the-next-10-years.html

I think it has been taken out of context a little bit because the article where you have probably get that is not a shill. It's not to entice other people to invest, and it's to let people know that there are other things you could do with your cash, which is true. Instead of just investing in the stock market, try different options like:

• Investing in your education
• Save money for another investment not just keeping it in a bank
• Have emergency funds
• Have no debt

It's best to make the most out of your money that isn't going to cost you more than you already have. Having the right mindset would give the best result that you could have, and I think educating yourself is one of the best ways to attain success.

Maybe a lot of people would look into Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrencies out there to invest in, and you would soon realize that it's another instrument that could give you profitable results as long as you know what you are doing. Having a larger volume in crypto would affect the price, and not just that, it could also affect the US Stocks exchange, etc. I do think it's the future, and we need to believe that it's going to happen.

People are gullible, seem everyone just forget the last market crashes and leave thousands of investors homeless or even kill thenselve over the return, I’m amused by the statement, the only stock that even growing in U.S. stock is the DJIA index, which is further adjusted “price weighted average” from “market cap weighted average” to fool yet another gullible investors money, a 3 to 5% return and countless homeless and dead people, is it really worth it?

Please add this link to the original thread OP, it'll help the people to understand your points a bit more.

That's what I got off it as well, the structure is actually fairly similar to a lot of the global economic reports I've read previously, (The IMF Outlook ones come to mind), and it's just providing estimates via stats.

Personally, I reckon the best thing for most people to invest in (excluding crypto-currencies of course), if they have enough capital - real estate. The market has always been steadily going up and it's a fairly good long term investment.

See the problem now with Bitcoin and crypto? It's made everyone just think in wholly unrealistic settings. 3% annual return on stocks is a really, really good thing, compounded that's easily over 40% in a decade. In the US that easily overcomes the inflation for US dollar.

Note, I'm not defending the stocks or fiat at all, just pointing out how ridiculous people's expectations have become to think 3.5% isn't that good.

Also, stock market growth doesn't directly correlate with economic growth, not in the US. S&P in the bullrun tripled after the last economic crisis, that hasn't been the case for GDP.

You are right about outlook and expectations, though.

Just remember, that we will have US stock market bubble burst in the next few years, starting a global recession.

This is guaranteed - after WW2, we have a recession every 7-10 years - the last one finished right before BTC came to existence.

So then even if you will see 3-5% ROI on stocks, be aware that you might lose 50% first.

First and foremost, its just prediction which means it can either be true or false and no one will be jailed for it because its mere prediction as the market forces and output might eventually negates what is being predicted. However, I would literally believes the prediction because it concerns a market that several factors can be held constant and when that holds, the result is almost sure to remain the same.

Comparing crypto with stock market will be wrong and they are not likes however, they could be used as a means to evaluate return in other to establish the right point to invest resources.  On returns perspective, I strongly hold that crypto will do more than stock market.

Negative rates and other options adopted by Central Banks seems have a positive impact in stock markets.
And Trump politics "pro-company" seems also have a good outlook on USA share value.

Crypto Economy is just a tiny portion of current value of USA principal stock markets, so a big impact can be very disruptive for all crypto coins. Probably most of traders and venture capitalist will continue their focus on well known brand/stock, since there are these positive outlook for the markets, and so far in this environment, anyone can understand how it works a company listed in a stock exchange ;)

Yeah and I've heard of people countering this by saying be aware you could lose 95% on Bitcoin first before seeing any gains. They're right of course, and people should be aware in Bitcoin that pullbacks are severe, far more than any other asset they've experienced. This shock is what jolts people out of it.

Worse still if they go into an asset that isn't Bitcoin. The majority are in those 90%+ pullbacks and haven't recovered. At least Bitcoin went -85% but is now at -55%!

almost sure the news are just shilling for the US stocks. all of them from penny stock companies, the industrial companies of dowjones, NYSE to nasdaq and government officials are all being manipulated by media releases every week all to inflate prices and people who kept reading the index every weekend believe all while the company owners are shorting it to them.

the future is crypto. the companies in stocks and bonds may probably shift to blockchain so one day we'll see those companies in cryptoexchanges.

Okay, I definitely see your point here, a free 3-3.5% interest for a relatively low-risk investment per year is definitely great for a lot of fiat investments, although with bitcoin often doubling/tripling your money if you're playing your cards right, it's pretty hard to pass up.

I reckon the biggest issue at fault here, is the natural inflation rates that every country goes through per year, which is usually around 2-3%, a lot of people don't end up realizing, but oftentimes, putting your money in a savings account actually loses you money since those rates are lower than inflation, and when your looking at this entire system, you realize, unless your profits are over 2.5% a year, you are likely losing money.

And that is why me and a lot of other people deviate towards crypto-currencies.

Think of all the economists and media personalities predicting catastrohic recession atm.

Then look at the following chart detailing stock performance before, during and after recessions.

https://i.imgur.com/mIh8lqG.jpg

My conclusion is the official narrative being hijacked for political, profiteering or assorted motives, as has become common in this era. History suggests real recessions lasting longer than 12 months, and stock market growth, usually do not occur simultaneously. The recession prediction or the stock growth prediction may be inaccurate.

I think they want investors to buy US stocks to suit their own agenda. The prediction is wholly unrelated to actual projected future stock market performance.

That stock market growth is very low especially considering inflation. Bitcoin and major altcoins should far exceed that because they are deflationary.

Its pretty low rate to grow your money but of course it is more safe compare to crypto. Cryptomarket can make your money double in just a month, and the average i think is that above 20% or more especially with good coins. Economist wants to boost the market of US to prevent any crisis again, but since people are more educated nowadays, stocks is a slow way of making money but still reliable.

They're just projecting from the present into the future.

The reality is that the bull market is now old and tired and just needs a shock to bring it down. Or just needs enough people just cashing out for their retirement to start a selling spree.

The problem with all these predictions is that they don't account for inflation. The US dollar inflation is rougly around 1.50%/year that means that 3-5%/year return will be around 1-2%. Most people think that stocks tend to raise over time in value, but is that true? I would say no.. most people look at the S&P 500 which is an index that is ever changing. They are switching stocks, not keeping those forever. Then where do you put the inflation? This is not financial advice and should not be interpreted in that way but in my opinion Bitcoin is a much better play. :)

Predictions once again. Still unsure with this though if it became real then US stock market were good to put the invest with.
Depending on who claim such idealism. Though big names are not trustworthy as well. Sometimes they made silly predictions.
They already did specially way back in december 2017. Well if you have alts to hodl back then and sell it during such heavenly situation you have already beaten up stock market annual return. In addition, there is an incoming halving in mid 2020, thus, we might experience again an outbreak in the market.

This is probably the right answer, those kind of models most of the time assume a linear kind of growth for stocks and we know stocks do not move like that, what this probably indicates is that the bull run of stocks is most likely over and we are about to see a crash in that market during the next years, this will make the price of most of stocks to be undervalued and while a great deal of investors are going to lose money this will create an opportunity for those with cash reserves to take advantage of it and buy many great stocks at good prices.

To be honest, I don’t know what capitalization of the US stock market is. Therefore, I simply have nothing to compare with.But the topic is very relevant.Indeed, many Americans in order to reduce the payment of taxes spend in the second half of December a lot of money to buy shares.

Why is this even worth talking about? I don't get it.

3-5% seems like a fair amount to put the average growth at, given the fact that over the very long run, this seems to be some sort of equilibrium rate of return on equities anyhow. It can actually be quite a pessimistic outlook given that we can see stock markets rise in double digits in years with strong economic growth.

Whether this is accurate or not is could be up to debate, but it's certainly not an attempt to "shill" anything.