Bitcoin Forum

From 10/27/18
Rodney Stevens, a former analyst and investment and merchant banker, discusses the relationship between Bitcoin and gold and how he has derived Bitcoin's value.
https://www.streetwisereports.com/article/2018/10/27/bitcoin-to-400-000-for-the-skeptics-and-the-birth-of-blockchain.html

I find it hard to take someone seriously when they write something like this:


A statement like that generally signals that the author takes an extreme position, and is making unsupported claims based on dubious research and data.

Can't find this Rodney guy on the internet. Which bank that employed him previously? I tried to Google search the profile pic but nothing shows up. Really difficult to find a former analyst and merchant banker nowadays.

Note: Street Wise is the only website that contains detailed info about him.

Bitcoin comparison with gold is being speaking around five years before onwards but you need to know ounce of gold cost was crossed by the Bitcoin in the year of 2017 itself.
As titled bitcoin prices reaches such value means I may have 20000 USD and more.

Okay, it is formulated in a rather radical way, but it is true that the main purpose of money is to be an intermediary that allows exchanging some goods and services for other goods and services. Taking a look at the article, though, it has many dubious statements. For instance,
This one is not backed up by anything nor it is unpacked for readers. All particular fiat eventually fails because of inflation getting too high, that's true. However, new fiat takes its place and it does not look like money is to disappear anytime soon.
Moreover, I don't like it when Bitcoin is treated as an asset, and his price prediction does not seem realistic, and I don't understand why he'd throw gold's value into the calculation like that. This view does not take into account that for some Bitcoin is money, not an asset.

Definitely, the price is reaching another level of height and that is the all-time high for Bitcoin and many are continuously speculating for the price bitcoin to be reached and even though the price may reach that kind of potential the $400,000 in the future I guess it is too early for the price to settle in that level, I am guessing that the price would be at the $40,000 or $50,000 USD I guess I can not say that the price will settle for that price.

His analysis is very far from the reality right now especially if you follow closely how the market flows. There is no up always and the market is like a wheel that you don't know when the price will raise or fall.

If in case his prediction will become reality then maybe in the future like 20 or more years from now as everything is possible and there is a big chance that crypto currencies especially the bitcoin will become the main currency in the future.

Yep, and proclamations like the one this guy made are done for personal publicity.  That's all.  He might genuinely believe bitcoin should be valued at $400,000 but if that's so, he's out of touch with reality.  And I don't take him seriously either.

Gee, you think?

After a nice 2016 at the end of which Bitcoin got to 1000+, 2017 came with 20x pump. (The data is from memory, it may not be 100% accurate.)

I guess that this is expected again.
It's clearly possible. Whether it will actually happen or not, we'll have to live and see.

From the article:


I wish he would state what exactly "long-term" means. If Bitcoin continues to survive over time then it's price will likely go up over the long-term The question is: Will it reach $400,000 in my lifetime?

This is his main argument. Reality is that something also have to replace money. If that will be Bitcoin then price should be eventually much higher.

It depends how old you are  :P
Every price could be possible once papers will not be used and the main fiat is removed. In other terms, once bitcoin will be adopted worldwide and satoshi become the actual dollar

$400,000 is in the upper boundary of Bob Loukas' prediction of the 4 year cycle peak. He is basically expecting something similar as in 2017.
I guess we can hope for 400k. But should expect something like "only" 100k.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oPXQa47iT28&t= (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oPXQa47iT28&t=)

Amazingly people Keep speculating high prices about Bitcoin, yes there’s a chance that it will reach that amount but why can’t we just stick to realistic value at the moment. Now that Bitcoin is struggling to break its ATH record I think we should leave it to market and see how long we should wait.

Too far $ 400,000 for bitcoin to reach $ 20,000 is hard to come back to as it is in 2017 bitcoin will go up in the future but I don't think it will be too high like that, even experts say bitcoin will continue to grow but at a normal price, speculate it is possible but remember we see it with analysis data.

400k is like ten years away and buying some bread will be like $20 at that point also because they will have suffered excess money supply, so in value terms who knows.   Thats possible but in 4yr I think it doesnt make sense to me without vast disruption, where as over the decade the change is handled across an entire economy so more feasible.

Saying money is useless is not all wrong, we dont use the paper.  FIAT is often backed by the demand as requirement as taxes.   A money supply in excess of GDP has many problems but also no GDP growth means less tax demand for that paper and if they did raise taxes too high then the whole system becomes avoided by global commerce.
   It is an ironic setup, we dont actually want the money but want that which it represents or what it can buy so we want the purchasing power.    Gold is often stated that way, most dont really want to use it but in its exchange however gold does have that base use and every other form of money potentially has a zero worth possibility.   This generation of economics we are in is at the tail end of generations of failure, soft default and frayed backing to its value and exchange and it can fall apart but it sounds about as real aliens to say so now.
    Paper notes becoming worthless is actually the road map, its the highest probability outcome and the historical precedent but I would argue at least ten years for notable failure.  4yr for BTC 400k comes across as disingenuous.

So many speculations, but in reality it was worst and disappointing. Many of us think it was a manipulation, but maybe that because of many people took good of an opportunity to sell while there's some surges happening. We need to wait for bigger investors to buy and hold bitcoin in order to see some positive signs.

Probably a person like the author has invested huge amount in cryptocurrency. His speculations may drag people's attention and possibly make other retail investors believe his statements. Nevertheless, he's just another random investor in crypto space like us, he's just using a relevant title on his name to make it more believable.

That $400,000 Bitcoin value is not impossible, but It's not realistic in this current market situation either.

Ooh?! So now he loves the privacy? Is this guy just created also to be the front of the said website?  ;D
Sounds like a scam ICO to me.  ;D Can we compare it with that?

$400k is a good number but just way to far. When looking at the numbers now, it is just difficult to believe that it could go so far and also in a fast pace.
I would rather believe those writers or vloggers that are claiming like $15k to $20k before the end of the year.
Although the analysis looks so bad, the numbers might really be reached and I'd rather listen to those types.

everyone becomes an expert when it comes to speculating bitcoin according to news sites so i wouldn't really read too much into it. there are lots of random dudes less known that this guy with far less history of investment of any kind that are being quoted as experts by these sites!

as for the speculation itself, it is not really a big deal. i would be more skeptical about $1 million+ target rather that such a low price as $400k which will most probably be reached in the nest bubble cycle.

It is kind of the truth though. Although labeling it as useless is an overstatement since it being a medium of exchange is already a huge contribution. It does indeed pale in comparison to gold since gold is a hard asset where as fiat is backed by banks which just continue printing fiat money, worsening the economic situation of the globe.

Although his statement of being a Gold mining analysts allows him to truly understand BTC is a bit of an overstatement in my opinion. Not one could truly say that they understand BTC after all.

I read that and was interested in this word "Bitcoin is digital gold, whose value is derived primarily as an inflation hedge. Because Bitcoin is more money-like than gold and scarcer than gold" I feel that bitcoin is very rare, $ 400k is the price easy to reach it's just that it takes time and it needs a lot of adoption too in the next few years, I can't guarantee the price of $ 400k in the next 2 years, maybe half of that could just happen

always hate to heard someone who comparing bitcoin as a digital gold.

this rodney stevens do identified like that. whether he has no idea at all about bitcoin or mixed things up making those long term bitcoin price target analysis based on the thin air data , he did not even mention bitcoin halving that will occured within 6 months.

and this rodney steven is a founder of Digital Asset Management Corp., a private start-up, developing a cryptocurrency holdings company with the objective of providing investors with a convenient and more liquid way of gaining exposure to the cryptocurrency sector without sacrificing security. which i believe he just looking for convincing people (their investors especially) that bitcoin is always in bullish in the long term specifically.
i won't surprised if someone like him put that $400k numbers overconfidently as his target , that is they way that kind guy making a sales.

Probably another guy who just found bitcoin lately and then making outlandish claim?

Or probably another banker turn hedge fund manager? So obviously he needs to shill for bitcoin right?

However, deriving bitcoin's price because of the relationship to gold? Nothing is new here, I mean everyone can make claims like this but we all know that the price is really based on the simply supply and demand here, no need to make things over complicated, just saying.

Prices like these are always thrown around.  The thing is if they hit which some ultimately will by default, they claim to be geniuses.  If it falls flat then the post or article just gets buried with the rest of them.  Price values for bitcoin at this point are a guess at best.

Nah, these guys generally spend a few quiet years being lucky, earning when they dump their shares of coin and then when they've spent everything they want on lambos or other wealth, they get bored and then they want to be influencers. There's only 1 reason he'd go for something so outlandish and it's exactly to get the attention his claims are getting now. Probably acting on advise of some thought leadership advisor he hired.

Like you said nothing new. But hey, new prediction to add to the pile of prophets.

Everything is possible in the cryptocurrency market, we have seen Bitcoin rise from $ 1 to $ 20,000, so in my opinion Bitcoin is quite capable of reaching $ 400,000. But this will take a very long time, probably for decades to come. I think it would be more realistic for us to predict when Bitcoin could return to the price of $ 20,000.

I thought it is another bullshit theory but he got a point when he suggested that assets with low use value will have an higher exchange value and he cited diamond and if we look at that theory what he says can be true but the market will not work according to these theories and for the price of bitcoin depends on the amount of investment coming into the market.

 

It's true that we think that realistic bitcoin only reaches 20k, there are already lots of happy people, especially back in 2017,
A few decades reaching $ 400k will reach it, but so far I haven't thought that bitcoin can achieve that much.

Before reading this article I thought this is just another guy making a hype on Bitcoin without any basis just like what Mcafee predicted on the price of Bitcoin which is $1 million, but after reading the article the guy has a basis to say that Bitcoin will reach $400 k


I don't know if this is going to happen in my lifetime, but I agree on his observation that Bitcoin's volatility is now decreasing.

*me grabs popcorn and waits for $400k BTC*

The author did not mention any year could be in the next five years or ten years or twenty, that's a lot of popcorn for you, but I'm quite impressed with his analysis, he has a good theory to back it of, but he still playing safe by not mentioning a specific years compared to other experts who have a specific year attached on their prediction, but I prefer to take it one step at a time, 10k, then 15, then 20k, safer and realistic this way. 

LOL! Money is completely useless except when used as a medium of exchange. That is the most hilarious form of "meme" I can think of, it should become a huge copypasta in everywhere and it can turn into really funny stuff. "Food is completely useless except when used as nutrition", "water is completely useless except when used to hydrate" "books are completely useless except when you read them".

I can think of a billion things like this! All things aside when bitcoin is not even ten thousand dollars right now, I feel like it doesn't really make that much sense to talk about $400k. Sure, mathematically speaking there is a "possibility" of bitcoin becoming $400k one day, yet it looks almost close to impossible right now so why don't we focus on what we have right now instead of dreams.

A value of $400,000 in a couple of years is possible if Bitcoin experiences another bubble like the 2 past bubbles in 2013 and 2017.  In those bubbles, the price increased from around $3 to $1200 and $400 to $20,000 respectively in 2 years prior to the bubble.

Well it does't compete with gold and it has nothing to do with its prices even in the past. Why? For two reasons I have seen during Bitcoin's climb upwards way back 2017 gold there was struggling but at the same time quickly recovered as well during that year we observed to movements for gold and only one for BTC this just show that they don't have any correlation between the two. Other than that there is no proof or hard evidence that shows that investors of gold are also the main traders in crypto market. If someone offloads gold to buy BTC then we all know who would drop and who would go up, which in this case we haven't seen yet.

Eat popcorn a little longer and you might not see the price of bitcoin at $400k simply because it will take more years before it happen. Speculation are too exaggerated without any concrete evidence, for now we need to break the wall so we can see bull run or else this $400k will take decades before it hit.   

I can't also see other information about the guy so this is another random expert gut that we're talking here. That quote that he has mentioned in the article as pointed out by other folks here is totally out of his mind. I don't even think that he heard what he just said or wrote in that article.

I would want to see $50k-$100k first before aiming for a higher desirable price.

That 'observation' only requires people to think logically. A market that's capturing more value and thus more economical mass, will see its volatility diminish as result.

Bitcoin at $400,000 is quite conservative if given enough time. It has never happened that a form of money emerged with Bitcoin's properties. People lose satoshis continuously, which means that there are fewer satoshis circulating every year that goes by. Currently there is more inflation than deflation due to the block rewards, but that will change in the future when block rewards consist solely of transaction fees.

Gold on the other hand will continue to be dug up as technology improves and the techniques to mine Gold become more efficient and cheaper.

Anything can happen and possible but I think he doesn't have a timeline when this will happen. We know that bitcoin will appreciate in the long run but slowly as the demands grow. Anyone can say $400k, $500k to 1M$ but to say a specific price on a specified year is different.

In my observation, the author Mr. Steven seems pessimistic about bitcoin on his article..

He ain't even popular but anyway. He got a point but he only based the value of gold and bitcoin from the supply itself that he made no value to fiats. But the thing is fiats ain't working that way. Besides, bitcoin couldn't be more real without fiats specially when cashing out when store or other enterprise don't have any option of accepting crypto currency.

Here we go again, so many speculations about bitcoin price that's very high. We are far from thus price, to be honest.
Despite for anything's possible and can happen isn't that too high? But we never know the market. Since it's very unpredictable, it could be sooner or so much later.
But really, $400k is amazing so to speak.
We'll need more popcorn here, lots of them.

Another optimist on the market. It's good that there are such signals, that is, positive feedback, but realistically speaking, growth is possible, but not so large. The next bubble should be bigger, but I don't think it exceeds $80k- $100k

PS. McAfee will lose his sausage..  ;D ;D

There are so many people prediction exist since last big bull run in 2017, some people said it will go 50k, 100k, 500k, one mil. But no of those prediction hasba realization yet. I think cryptocurrency price is too hard to predict because sometimes when people predict the price so high, what will happened is the opposite. So we have to ready with any market condition

I think $400K is not outside of the realm of possibility. there are several reasons for this assumption. we live in a digital world that every day moves further in the direction of digitalization. another problem that can be solved with cryptocurrencies is the lack of trust. The Millennials and a new generation will probably choose bitcoin for the investment rather than gold because bitcoin is easier to transfer and store. In addition, bitcoin has limited supply.

So the price of each coin will only increase in the future. Cryptocurrencies enter our lives and have already influenced the world, and they are definitely not a bubble. Bitcoin has experienced many crashes, and every time it recovered. the volatility of 80% or 90% is normal for the crypto market, and the fluctuations work in both directions. thus, bitcoin can easily hit $400,000, but the question is when.

So many things have to happen before the price of bitcoin go that high. First adoption rate would increase like say 60% of world population to be using it. This is going to be with some regulation.
This is a digital age and the time or when it will happen just depends on adoption .

Speculation or predictions from unknown or famous people who tend to believe their predictions and all say bitcoin will soon rise to the highest price with each different nominal.
although it's hard to believe because we see the reality now and they see in the future or in the months to come according to their predictions, so, there's no harm in us trusting them because it will be motivation and enthusiasm that makes us not care about current prices and think prices in the future or the next few months will be much better.

I love it when people panic before the halving. But to be honest waiting for $400k will probably take you through another bear period so you will need to wait another 4 to 6 years.
So yes we need a lot more popcorn...  8)

Anyhow ..... Keep calm and prepare for post-halvening

The thread does spark optimism  :-*

It will create big  impact if more adoptions will happened and more people will be interested to buy and use this system. We know that there's still small percentage of people who believes and understand the concept of bitcoin even there's analysts and known people from social society who already shown interest, it's still needs to have more influence to convince other people to use and adopt this payment system.

Yea, everyone really starts to become an expert when it comes to speculation and that $400,000 guess will not happen yet but soon when bitcoin start another halving again in the next four years. The price was just unrealistic even in next year new ATH, he might have to decrease it a little bit that kind of reasonable price.

Oh look another expert trying to predict Bitcoin price...why should we trust him when we already know that Bitcoin is made to grow every year in price so eventually 400k$/btc can be achieved in 10 years or so. Until then lets see how 14 November will affect the markets as last year it was a FULL RED CANDLE spreading blood across the markets causing panic sell and and then FOMO followed by a next drop in price and a big fud towards Bitcoin and I'm hoping this time it will be with a HUGE GREEN CANDLE <3.

A merchant banker before? Well, its a good prediction but we can’t say that its an expert prediction and a huge one. $400k is far from reality right now and we should not focus on that. We have to work on the adoption of bitcoin for us to achieve this price however if the volatility gets high it will take longer to reach the peak again.

I dont know if that would really happen in the future, $400,000 is too high for bitcoin to reach although there is always a possibility for that but as of now it is too early for us to say that bitcoin will reach $400,000. $20,000 is already hard for bitcoin to reach so lets not expect too much.

Many prediction burst about bitcoin and everyone has their own judgement if the price could go reach $400k. Indeed as most everyone says it is early to judge if what price of btc could reach so far. One thing we knew if more adoption could happen in the future btc could soar high to the point that we're not expected it.

I don't believe in what he is saying about how Bitcoin will take some value away from our own fiat currency. Even if the interest or demand grows to Bitcoin I don't think it will have any kind of direct impact on our money since the ones that are really affecting the value of our fiat currency is our own economy and to anything that affects it. Cryptocurrencies also doesn't affect the demand or supply of fiat currencies since their prices are also based within it, once they devalue fiat currency what they are doing is they are also devaluing themselves making it not ideal for cryptocurrencies to be bought.

Yeah though no one actually knows when the price is going to be high and when it going to be low but the market remains so fluctuating that’s why no one actually knows the coming price would be that high or not. In 2017 the price was so high and it was higher because of a number of investors. So I guess the price will be high but not so this much Maybe it will take more than 5 years for it.

No one can predict anything now because whales are pretty active in market and doing occasional pump and dump of small value rather than huge fluctuations like they used to do in the past, whenever the crowd in this forum comes a conclusion like it will be a pump or dump then whales play exactly opposite to it to pool in more money. Price fluctuations are no longer created by world affair but rather whales decides it.

Seriously speaking btc prices have came long way from starting and reached $20k in 2017 but now they stands at almost $9k but its not easy to reach such level of prices.
The next year halving can lead prices surge to $15-$20k again and in future the prices will reach $45000 above with increased adoption and technical issues being solved like speed,fees and technology.So its long way before we reach that level inspite btc being volatile and anything can happen in this market.So we need to ignore such speculation by people who call them experts and wait for the right moment to come and gain profits.

bitcoin and gold dont really have a relation if i were to ask because both of them are different  . one is digital and the other one can only be found offline or have its own physical form  .  people tend to believe more on gold than in btc because they can see and hold it but anyways , his prediction was last month and few weeks have passed from now but btc is still down  and december is also comming so i dont think that btc can reach that said amount which was 400k usd  . maybe next year tho that is more possible .

Predictions like the one we see in this thread are useless, we could use all kind of ways to try to guess the future price of bitcoin but the only thing all of those predictions tell is that bitcoin will become extremely valuable in the future, and we did not needed to be market experts to know that, bitcoin is like no other asset in the world and it will become more valuable as time passes.

The prediction in which I will be interested is if someone could actually tell when that will happen but I know that is impossible to tell since the value of bitcoin will depend on whether adopting through the world happens or not and that depends on too many factors.

Uhm well the relation between Gold and Bitcoin is quite obvious ? But I was very shocked when I started of thinking to buy some gold coins or something similar and how difficult it is for an amateur to differentiate between true gold coins and possible fake versions of it. Whereby I know exactly that the Bitcoins are genuine.

Gold has an exact dimension to it, its not hard to discern really.   I could dig up the picture of a particular scale but the way to quickly tell a fake from real for a gold coin is to measure both weight and exact dimensions at the same time, there is no other combination that can result in a correct balance except for gold as it is a unique element its not that hard to seperate fakes.
  The only reason this isnt common knowledge is gold as common coin and exchange has fallen out of use almost anywhere and it is mostly digital now whether its FIAT or crypto or any standard, we all find digital means far more convenient then a standard from hundred years ago or earlier.   The gold standard I'm most familiar with was devised by Issac Newton of more famous physics fame but theres nothing wrong with something thats worked for hundreds of years, its quite likely we do come to find a use for it at least to some extent.  

I have no belief we'll have precious metal coins required as money but I'm quite certain gold will be more used in ten years or twenty years more then it is now.    The possibility of FIAT decline or 'Peak Debt' is dismissed out of hand by finance establishment but then so is the need for crypto or the idea of independence via decentralisation, they all believe the world will find its own way but history says it'll crash as a corrupt system to rot and collapse.   That is the natural order greater then the duration of any man or empire.
   Its surely better for us to fall back on something like crypto however much elites may dislike it, if the system does work it'll be increasingly more use then a failed system.

https://i.imgur.com/zcoLIhag.jpg

Im no expert but these simple scales arent easy to fool so far as I know, they'll be vids on it.   Theres lots of gold bugs who think we'll be 100% gold in future, I dont but it'll be a greater percentage then near to zero now.
  If BTC is to be 400k it'll be part of that story of a reversion to mean that includes the story all the way back to Newton

Correct. That should be the idea.
Stick with reality. Stop imagining things too much.
Back to the truth.
We cannot even see a $50k increase this year or the next year.
Hell! even $20k is difficult to be believed again. Halving is coming, we might see a price pump but it is still unsure.

Of course, that at any time someone can invent better technology than blockchain or Bitcoin 2 and all the fun with the new ATH after halving will end. But for that is this thread, to speculate about it.

These predictions will all come true at some point. The big question is "when".

With an on going printing of Fiat paper money the prediction is bound to come true. (Of course as long as the adoption of bitcoin stays the same or rises significantly higher in the future)

If you look at the scaling solution of bitcoin, it was not meant for a wider adoption and people are not tech savvy to understand everything about lightning network and have a massive adoption and hence the question about when the price would increase depends upon when the developers can find a solution for a good scaling model so that you can have a million transaction and without those solution thinking about higher valuation is fruitless.

That is without a doubt the big question, when will bitcoin reach those kind of prices? And we need to be honest and say that we do not know, but we know something and that is that if the economy keeps going in the same direction is going then a very high price for each bitcoin is almost inevitable, even if in the future as the economic situation worsens governments declared every single cryptocurrency as illegal people will keep using them.

If anything we have to wonder that in the case bitcoin is made illegal its price could go up even more as the demand will keep been high and it will be difficult to find a supplier of bitcoin for those that want to have it.