Bitcoin Forum

There are no price predictions here it's just something I've been thinking on a lot in the last month or so. During the last price run-up, countless predictors and TA personalities were saying this over and over. Once we close over 10K you'll never see a 4 digit BTC again. Well here we are 2 months later and we are below 8k.

This just shows that a chart tells you what you really want to see. They all obviously saw the other side of the trend and would mention the chance,  but went with what they were biased towards. Some of these folks are perma-bulls, some constantly bearish. Overall they see an upward trend in the long term but rarely see eye to eye on the short term. There is a reason people get wrecked trading or pull massive gains, there is no way to know for sure what is going to happen.

The only thing through all of this that makes sense, is the dollar cost averaging strategy. When you go to buy into a speculative market, best not to jump all in at once. Especially if you aren't sure you can hold out for the long term. I can't find it at the moment but about a while ago I saw a chart showing that you would be profitable even if you started buying in at the ATH, if you had continued to DCA, throughout 2018 into 2019.

Here is a different article I just found though that covers the same idea. https://www.bitcoinforbeginners.io/cryptocurrency-guide/dollar-cost-averaging-investment-strategy-bitcoin/

Personally, I think it's really stupid to ever use the word "never" when it comes to Bitcoin, this is just one example that shows this. When in April (2019) price jump from $4k to $5k in very short time, and when we witnessed the $10k pump, some "experts" were convinced that this was the beginning of a new large pump that would very easily result with new ATH ($20K+). Of course, something like that couldn't have happened, nor would it happen before halving next year.

I'm pretty sure (though I'll never say never), that price will never go below $1000, but I think that even after next ATH (which can be x10), it is still possible to return bellow $10k after correction.

Regarding investing, it makes some sense that even if you buy at $20k (you are theoretically at a loss), by buying after that at low ($3000) you can nullify some losses (in fiat value) if you sell at right time. Bitcoin has always been a smart investment for the long term, it's just a matter of how much money and patience one has to come out as a winner.

If there is no disaster, then people who bought at ATH will definitely earn on their investment. Someday..
I do not know, who using TA said that the price will increase? Everyone I know and use TA has said to me and is constantly saying that the BTC price will go down. Some say that to $5k- $6k and others even that to $3k- $4k. I personally see positive moods on the market, so I honestly doubt that the price will drop to $7k.

It's just people (mostly noobs) being irrational.  And that's alright...  But the thing I hate about it tho is the hypocrisy of maxis and how they treat people who hold or trade alts.  Everybody's the same...  We're all pumping our bags and going for number go up.  :)

Heh heh.  I think at one point I thought and probably even wrote that bitcoin wasn't going to dip below $10k, at least not in the near future--and that was only a few months ago when it was above that price.  Oh well.  I did buy some bitcoin in the past couple of days, though not much and looking at the price this morning, it's already dropped below what I bought it at.

I'm not concerned, however.  As I write this, bitcoin is at $7603 and while that was about a $400 drop since I went to bed last night, it still could have been much worse.  I don't know if this is that "typical" end of year selling that I keep reading about, but it's possible.  The same thing often happens in the stock market, even though it isn't even December yet.  If bitcoin doesn't recover this year, I'm keeping my fingers crossed that 2020 will be a much better year than this one.

Man....think about it.  Bitcoin is still picking up the pieces from 2017's irrational exuberance.  That's why I don't want to see a crazy bull market like that one ever again.

We can't really blame them though. Having the hope of reaching another ATH pushes the people to spread the word to others, infecting them with their optimism. Probably thinking that this could actually help in pushing BTC above the market. I was honestly one of those who HOPED for it to actually stay at the very least in 8k. Just went and checked it earlier and it already dropped to 7.8k. Was kind of lucky to sell my coins when it was still around 8.5k though.


Most of the still attractive market should never use the word never, and since BTC is still in its progressive phase, such a term should indeed not be used. It would most probably be more fitting when it is used once every BTC has been mined, creating a stabilizing factor for the volatility of BTC in the market.

A wise man says: "Newbs should not trust random dude from Youtube and Twitter." These people are paid shill and have little or no real trading knowledge.

It is clear enough that no one can predict the future. Just unfollow/unsubscribe their accounts, and you will become a happier person. Buy some (if you have idle money), then forget it for a while until you hear good news from mainstream media.

Dollar cost averaging is a good investment strategy if you have the discipline to regularly dedicate a part of your money into bitcoin. You will always have the average price. But most noobs will be too scared to buy when the price is tanking and FOMO when it is soaring.

 

True, your "newbs" shouldn't randomly trust a dude from youtube or twitter, but this does not mean that you will end up unsubscribing from him or anything like that. They do give suggestions, but it is your responsibility to find out and analyse what he or she is saying. All I am trying to say is, instead of blindly trusting and following someone, do your part of work which is learning more about that thing through different sources.

$10k is a lot of money for one Bitcoin. We are less then a year from bottom. In last cycle 11 months after bottom so in December 2015 price was at armoured $400, so  1/3 of previous ATH.   That would give us sub $7000 price right now. We are exactly where we should be. $10000 is reserved for next year.

When the price went up from $7400 to over $9200 in a few days, I said to my friend, "Don't worry, that was pump because of what the president of China said" he said I was wrong and that the reason for the increase from $ 7400 to over $ 9200 was related to futures. Today the price is back at $7500 and interestingly after this news:

Markets Crash After Reports That Binance's Shanghai Office Closed in Crypto Crackdown (https://cointelegraph.com/news/markets-crash-after-reports-that-binances-shangai-office-closed-in-crypto-crackdown)

the price dropped from $7850 to $7500 in just a few minutes. it can be clear evidence that the price just increased a lot from $7400 to over $9200 in a few days because of what the president of china said. People are seeing that China has not changed its position and because of this they are dumping their coins

It is very possible that it can go as low below $7,000.  This may be if more people are cashing for the holiday season. Of course, more people will be needing fiat or cash. But I think it is normal, price may go up and down depending on supply and demand and some events affecting the crypto world.

Never say never and when it comes to Bitcoin nothing is impossibe. We can never say what is the lowest or the highest level that Bitcoin price can go to.
Now it's around 7500$ but doesn't mean it can't go lower. 10000$ isn't some kind of magic boundary that can't be crossed and both ways.

I saw that phrase being passed around in the Wall observer thread a few days ago. I think thats where it caught on from. However, the thing that was accelerating Bitcoin's price, the Libra news, it has its own set of hindrances and stuff to deal with. Once that resolves, chances are high still, things will pick up the pace again.

Until then you will see some fluctuations like these, wilder perhaps, but I do not reckon it would drop below the $3k levels which were solidified back in late 2016.

Exactly.  I say it all the time, give me 10 predictions of peoe with TA say we are going up, and I can find 10 saying we will go down.  In a game where thousands of peoe "guess" future prices, mathematically some people have to be right.  There is no bearing on this guess just that they were on the right side of this one.  Buy incrementally with what you have to lose and you should be sitting fine when all the dust settles.

I prefer to focus on where the higher time frame moving averages are, and these hover somewhere between $4000-$6000 which is far away from the $10,000 level.

I personally never use the word never within crypto, but I would be comfortable saying that we, with a high degree of certainty, won't see sub $10,000 levels again when most moving averages hover somewhere above that level. The 200MA on the weekly that helped Bitcoin bottom out at $31xx is currently still below $5000 (~$4880 to be more precise).

In the end, people should be happy that the price isn't going to the moon in one go. The longer the price hovers somewhere below the $10,000 level the more time you have to add to your position every single month.

Never say never was not just a James Bond movie but a good term of phrase to remember always everything is possible.   I'am more bearish when people start to get a little too hyper, its far better when BTC gets a rise despite worries and possible negatives.   I think that is because the waves of negatives and shaky weak hands holding BTC do sell their holdings but are selling into a tide of buying hence both market edges are met within the positive trend.
    A hyper market is not selling off properly and getting rid of the negatives in the price properly, it stores up future sellers and accumulates into a bigger negative later.    That might be where we are at now, with selling occuring and to some extent required to rid ourselves of weaker holders who meant only to speculate or even worse borrowed or fractional type holdings.   Though the price is falling now, its not a damaging movement long term in my view and I dont discount it finding 10k in future again.
   BTC price has alot more depth to it then people give credit for, thats my take that its moving and dragging back some previous gains but it can turn and be positive again once its expended negative momentum.

I'm not sure I would agree with your technical analysis, but that's my bias against it speaking.  I wouldn't say I was absolutely sure bitcoin wouldn't drop below $10,000 again when it was above that level some months ago back in July and August of 2018, but I was confident that we might not see $7500 again.  Obviously I was wrong, but what does it matter?  I still believe in bitcoin and now I can buy it at a much lower price. 

I'm not alone, then.  This is why I prefer not to stare at charts when trying to decide whether to make an investment, especially in crypto.  Past prices aren't a great indicator of what something is going to do in the future *unless* there's clearly some momentum behind whatever it is we're talking about.  When bitcoin was above $10,000, that was not the case.  Anyhow, I'm hodling and I'm sure bitcoin isn't going to stay this low for long.  Actually I'm not sure at all, but I doubt it's going to and I've put my money where my mouth is.

Some "experts" also were saying in past that bitcoin will reach 10K, 20K in 1-2 year and they were saying this when price was 400-600$. People were laughing at them, they couldn't imagine if it was possible to reach unreachable 1K, nothing to talk about further rises but seems those "experts" were right.
If bitcoin's price will go below 1000$, it means it will also go down to 100$ and this coin will die which I don't want to happen. To be fair current price of bitcoin still high too, why do we need 20K? Bitcoin at 7k usd easily matches what users need, 20K was what caused huge rise in transactions and also stuck of them in time.

I agree with the sentiments of people regarding the words "never" it's crazy to think like that in a market where individuals hold thousands of coins. They honestly can do as they please with the market and people are just subject to dealing with it.
I really only wrote this as for a while I was really getting into trying to learn more about TA, but have sort of lost the desire. It was more for thesake of learning than anything, as I'm not overly concerned with the price day to day, hell even month to month. I gripe a bit here or there if I sell/buy something right before a run-up, but funnily enough don't care as much when I'm on the right side of things.
I'm definitely more in favor of slow reasonable growth that make sense, it really only benefits a small segment of users when things start to swing 15-40% in short frames. I guess that could be that I don't really hold much, nor do I have much in the way of Fiat to inject into building my reserves up. I've sort of moved to a small amount of people who actually try to talk about news and businesses and the perceived impact whether negative or positive for the overall environment.
I will admit I did sort of get sucked into the idea that this was going to be something similar to 2017 on a smaller scale. I wasn't excited about it though, I would have sold some and waited to buy back in. If it never dropped I would have just carried on holding the mining rewards. I still find myself talking to people about why I am involved with BTC, and they always bring up the perceived loss of value from the ATH, without an understanding of the FOMO that drove it. They tend to just think I'm on the kool-aid or something.

A few weeks ago when bitcoin started to climb up and seems persistent above $8K, I thought we are slowly going towards $10K but it getting further away at the moment. I've bought at $9K to support bitcoin but turns out to drop below $7K, well another chance to buy more then.
There is one month before the end of the year, I'm still confident that bitcoin will reach $10K, the possibility is still there.

everything is possible in the bitcoin market. bitcoin which is very volatile can go down and up quickly. just like you yesterday I also predicted bitcoin at the end of this year could pump up to $ 10,000 again but the fact is that the current value of bitcoin actually continues to decline. and this week bitcoin has decreased quite a lot. maybe until the end of the year bitcoin will continue to decline.
if we have money of course this is a good opportunity to add bitcoin. and I'm optimistic that bitcoin can pump again to reach $ 20,000, hopefully next year the bitcoin bull run.

There are many predictions made in the cryptocurrency market and all of them are likely to come true. Bitcoin can rise to $ 50,000 or drop to $ 0, we can not predict exactly what will happen.
If anyone says that Bitcoin will not go below 10k or not above 10k I will not believe because the market is always up and down. But that's also the best part of the cryptocurrency market, anyone can make a profit through that up and down, if the market is stable we won't get anything.

Year 2014 - 2015 everyone thinks bitcoin will touch back 2 digits around tens of dollars, but only play low hundreds of dollars with 3 digits until finally 2017 goes to 5 digits, but right now we are still playing 4 digits under $ 10k, so maybe some next year it could be that we will no longer see 4-digit prices like we did not see before bitcoin no longer touches 2 digits, it looks like this is the last chance of bitcoin under $ 8000, but this is only my speculation, I don't expect my speculation can be achieved

But two weeks ago it was just a little touch to the $10k price. Never expected though that it could go way down like this.
I thought it will just be for a day or a couple.
But there is no bottom now. Every analyst are on fire in their seats looking for something into why this is happening.
As I said even before, no one can know what could happen specially with bitcoin and yet they still got numbers and charts to show this and that which they think are accurate enough.
I don't bite that.
Now look at it, below $8000, so what will they say now? $6k is the real bottom and this is really, really, real?  ;D

I think people are free to make speculation, and i respect to yours. Maybe for who believe bitcoin price will increased, they see the timeline. Actually i am one who believe bitcoin price to increased too. Because since 2014, if seen as whole, bitcoin price move positively or at least maybe a lot of people who bought at high price when last pump, have big hope and will do something too to get their profit back.

I wonder what happened to the 1.3 billion investors that we're buying bitcoins after Xi's speech and China supporting blockchain...
And all that institutional money that was coming to bitcoin, and Bakkt...

It was clear that the last serious pump to 13 was running out of steam and the price went up way to fast way to high, a drop was expected, 8k 9k  was sure to be tested again, 7k...well this is a surprise for many, if it hits 6k I will raise some eyebrows too, 5k...let's not go there.
But to say things like never 4 digits again was like declaring yourself a permabull a bit out of touch with reality.


The same experts that managed to get those predictions right were also one hundred times wrong and I'm quite sure 99% of them didn't get this drop right. For example, McAfee has a prediction of bitcoin getting to 500k, if the price will ve get to that will he is an expert on the price? Of course not. Roubini nailed the last major crisis, after that he predicted another twenty of them and every single one was ...guess what, wrong.


Usage caused a rise in the transaction number and subsequently fees, not the price.
If price would raise the number of transactions we would be stuck even now in such a situation, the price is still 7 times that of 2013 yet the transactions are just 20% more on average.

If bitcoin is used in everyday life by a million people you will see them back to 4-5$ in an instant, and saying that I don't know if I should be happy or not for this...

Every timeframe from 1 minute to 3 day is oversold. Weekly still has a long way to go. A technical bounce is due, but could be at 6k or even 5.5k as well. I would short nor long here, too dangerous. Wait for a reversal, then long the bottom and/or short the bounce.

It's a cast iron rule that as soon as some knob writes 'we will never go below x price again' x price makes a reappearance within 1-24 hours. Anyone who comes out with it gets a brownie point deducted from me.

One day it'll be true. It'll only be clear several months or years after it has occurred.

This is exactly any observer in the market looks for, they just interpret what they want the market to be and so is the reason you will see many technical analysis and predictions and i never went with any TA nor any predictions as you cannot predict the market in the short term.

Anyone who made a loss in any market jump the gun and invest everything all at once and that is a bad strategy, the market can go either way and you need to have a support level to enter and if the market goes down then you calculate accordingly and evaluate your next entry point and if you want to safest option you can book your profit with every 10 to 20 percentage profit in the market and then repeat the process and if you look at the market these price ranges are common.

If you are entering the market at a regular interval your initial capital will average out and even if you purchase during ATH you will not end up in a loss considering that your gross investment is still giving you the profit.

I can bet any money that we're never going below the previous top of 1k ever again. I agree that you can't say never with all confidence because there's always that 1% chance, but I'm willing to bet all in on Bitcoin.

I started Bitcoin investments with just a few thousand USD and made it into more than 100k in 5 years. I've learned one thing by being here. You should never accept the price as it is. It's always your choice to sell or not. Selling at low prices makes you accept what they're offering you at that moment. I will never accept 5 or 6k for my coins, it's simply not enough. If nobody gives me more I'll keep waiting until someone does.

People should learn not to be scared unless they really need the money now and were trying to sell when it all dumped.

In times like this I just switch to fiat and pay all my expenses this way, because short term BTC value is low, but I'm 100% sure that it will be higher than it is today at some point. Maybe in a month, maybe in 12 months.

We went from 7 to 10k in 12 hours, do you believe that we'll never do it again?

It may or may not be your last chance under 8000, or maybe this is the new reality.  Bitcoin will go up and down and hover around here forever and this is its stable price.  Or its overinflated and it will drop back into the hunders.  Or it will go over $100k and never touch below 6 figures again.  See how silly all of this can be.  You cant speculate on tomorrow's price based on yesterday's actions.

Hard to speculate indeed! Even self-proclaimed blockchain experts or trading experts can't exactly predict what will happen next, even for the next 24 hours. There are so many factors in play that affect the stability of bitcoin price and so we experience its price volatility til now. No one can pinpoint the major factors that influence the up and down movement. We just need to be vigilant on what we are doing with crypto to avoid big losses.

Yes those who lost and left behind holding bitcoin bought it at a high price at the end of 2013 saw in 2014 then prices dropped dramatically, so who can survive he who wins holds BITCOIN and sells it in 2017, they became rich people before, so now I see a lot of people will pick up cheap bitcoin prices for the next 2 years

Absolutely. This is why I think that TA doesn't work unless you are sure that the operator is someone completely unbiased - TA can be manipulated in some many ways to pass off opinions as evidence based facts.

Dollar cost averaging is especially useful in this type of market, where prices are constantly going down, but you don't know when the downtrend is going to necessarily end.

You essentially hedge yourself both ways - limited downside risk without giving up much upside. Perfect if you are a long term holder.

Well we all make some mistakes and I also believe in those words but I think it is time to wake up from reality,
We have seen it reach $20K and still went down to $3-4K again so we couldn't really say that we would never see it again in this price it is like a dream and we want to stay dreaming but we have to face the reality and I know it is hard.
And it is just a good example that TA's words isn't really worth it so for those who are a die hard fan of TA's good luck with your investment and I hope you would learn your lesson soon enough that they are just like us,
They are just predicting the price so if they could do it then believe in yourself and try to make your own decision.

It also depends on who and how reads TA. I don't know how to do it, but I know people who say TA shows that the BTC price will go down much more. Despite this, we should remember that the cryptocurrency market is different from much more stable fiat markets, and TA was created just for them. Cryptocurrency market cap needs to increase a lot  more so that TA can be useful for trading here.

That is only if you believe in TA. The way I see TA is that it's a picture that anybody can draw on. What you draw others will see and you can change what you're drawing by stretching and contracting the base layer. Some people see something happen on 1h charts others see something else on 4h and some other people only look at 1d and draw lines there. The truth is that you can draw almost anything you want on Bitcoin charts. You can draw clouds, resistances, channels, harmonics, and the chart will look different every time. A bear you can make it look bearish and a bull will make it look bullish.

Example? If you look at all time Bitcoin it's bullish, 5 years? Bullish, 3 years bullish (1k-7k), 2 years bearish (20k- 7k), last year bullish (3k -7k), last month bearish (9k-7k), and if you take the last 2 days you can have both bullish and bearish TA based on what has happened.

Seems legit :)
I think this can be a problem in reading TA. No one who has ever tried to explain to me how it works has ever used a long-term history. They have always been short periods of time and signals that may appear in a moment. In my opinion, we should look at the whole story, which clearly shows that the price is rising and will continue to rise for a long time, so fluctuations around $10k (because in my opinion it is only a small fluctuation) is only a temporary situation.

Patient is good, take any chance that we can get is good too. That is what i learn from trading. Like this time when price dumped, if people want to buy, good time to buy. Better than see price pumped and we late to buy, and then get FOMO, and then buy when in high price. Actually simple thing to say,  but in fact, it is keep happen and happen again.

This always happens. The richest investors always say: buy when the market is bleeding, sell when the barber tells you that he wants to buy. No matter what happens in a week or a month. The most important thing is to be patient and wait until the next bull run begins and sell with profit.