Bitcoin Forum

Bitcoin buy positions on Bitfinex have spiked to levels not seen since February. Sell positions, on the other hand, are around their lowest level ever.

After experiencing compounding losses in the past week, Bitcoin rebounded significantly yesterday from a low of $6,600. Now trading at around $7,150, the bulls are trying to push this higher and it appears they have some momentum.

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I would like to pay more attention to the word “momentum”.

No matter what “momentum” do they have, it would probably end up as a bull trap in the current situation of the cryptocurrency market today.

I honestly believe that the momentum wouldn’t last long and may not help much to spike Bitcoin’s price once again, even if the buy positions have spiked to high levels. There is no guarantee now that Bitcoin may going to have another bull run soon even if the number of buy positions are growing to its level that we’ve never seen since February.

What happened last February? Even if there’s a high number of buying positions in Bitmex or in other exchanges, there’s not much impact in Bitcoin’s price back then until after the April Fool’s Day where it grown from $4k+ to $6k+, and then up to almost $14k in the middle of this year.

It's a psychological barrier. People know that 6k used to be a very strong support in 2018 and again in the early 2019 so they think it's a good place to buy in.
I don't focus on daily prices. What matters is months and years not days. If you look at months we are still in the same trend since the beginning.
The price should have been at 5k in 2015 but it got oversold to 3k and quickly made it back to the long term trendline at 5k. Now this trendline is at 6k and will be at 7k at the time of the halving.

I guess its a positive news if we are indeed heading to the next bull run but I think its too early to tell on what might be the market's next move especially if we speculate on it based on a data of one exchange alone.

TBH, the community are getting tired of these kinds of speculations where we often end up being disappointed on our expectations though everybody hopes the the best is yet to come in cryptosphere! Imho. :)

I think we are facing a strong accumulation phase right now as the patterns indicate that whales are buying a lot of bitcoin and bots are active that the day before so those who are waiting lower prices we might never see them if this pace keep going like crazy.

The sign indicate nor bull run or bear market as bull run is far for happening and bear market is already here creating panic and deception among holders and traders. Holders are getting panicked and some of them already dumped and traders loose money every day as the charts are hard to read in order to make some decent profits.

Only long term investors (HODLers) don't see price daily but day traders cant avoid that. Bull run like Dec 2017 cant be seen on every month or year. We have seen BTC going down to 3500 USD this year before jumping back. I can see great potential even in this bear market.

We're not there yet, most of the whales are just accumulating more coins and the news, fake or not seem to cooperate with how they can accumulate more, its a combinations of bull and bear trap at every swing of prices. If the price will dip below $3k as being spread on some articles, we may never know until it happen. The one thing that is sure to happen is that if you panic and sell, they will pick your order.

I didn't even panic at all, since February, bull traps often occur, and I believe it's just a low accumulation rate that finally ends with a decline back, a futures test at Bakkt that facilitates around $ 30 trillion, makes many markets react spontaneously, but that not an accurate signal for a change to a reversal trend.

I am just going to wait without making any speculation about the future but this has been a tough week for bitcoins and when it dipped below $6000, I was afraid it was going to go all the way to to $5000 but I see the resurgence as a bit hopeful. Maybe the next bull run might be on our hands but am a bit skeptical and see the value on the weekends.

When the Bitcoin price drop with almost $500 in 24 hours and then recover in a few hours, then you know something is up. Slight volatility is not

unnatural in Bitcoin, but a drop like this definitely are abnormal. Someone are making a killer profit with this level of manipulation, but it is not good

for the Bitcoin merchants to have volatility like that. The recovery period is also too fast for a proper Bull trap, because it takes a while to reel in the

victims. I hope this Freak show is over now, because we need a good Black Friday and Xmas to end this year.  8)

The bull run can be supported by investors who still believing that it will happen along the way, by simply holding and keep being patience waiting
for the next market movement. It's  a tough call since there's also a big possibilities that collapse may take place and even you are already thinking that
it's the bottom there's another dumped that will take place. Be attentive and don't take decision quickly assess and observe everything then decide
what to do after.

What were you afraid of? If it goes there it's only a new opportunity to get more cheaper.

If you are afraid of because you are holding you're doing it wrong. Holding is only for those who can set it all aside and not worry. Leave worrying to the traders. Hodlers don't care and patiently wait for their moment.

If you're a long term holder, then the current flash crash doesn't matter, in my opinion. You're not going to be affected by the movement because you're looking at a long term goal. Regarding though if this is a bull trap, we can't really tell because this is how the market work. I mean if you have been in this game for so long, you know that the market is very volatile and unstable and the only thing you can do is to react and adjust your strategy.

There is no such thing as an accurate sign. Lines and indicators that are supposed to tell that the current trend is a "bull trap" are considered as a false signal. It's inaccurate and therefore can't act as a good reference. Also applied to the so-called "bear trap".

But honestly, as what we know in crypto, those legit or false signals always bound to be spoiled unlike in stock. Since others already liquidate their position, they can consider the current level as a new entry point even the price is expected to be lowered down in the few days.

Sometimes it's really confusing on what to do next if people will rely mostly on speculation based on the articles and news they have seen. This is the challenge in playing with the crypto market as the professional analysis doesn't work sometimes.

Contrary to most people that think about the decrease on its price, people should take into consideration the opportunities that it provide in the long-run.

 Just to give a concrete example, the price of bitcoin has been steadily increasing over the past few years with some major increase/decrease but the trend is always on the increasing side. Even if the price dropped to around $7,200, the price would increase in the next few weeks or months. This is always been the case and I am only using the history of its price to back this contention!

Again, if there were accurate signs to predict the next price of bitcoin, then everyone would be rich by now. No one can accurately predict what would happen next but always take the negative side in to your advantage.

They are just buying because price went way too low in just few days.

If you think about it there was an enourmous drop from almost 9k to 6.6k.
What you think Investors will do next? ::)

Of course they will just buy in all sudden meanwhile price is at a lower threshold.
That's what i would do if i would be an investor in this case.

Being a bull run or trap is what makes Bitcoin volatile and such trustable coin as it's an active coin meaning worth buying / selling for.

Based on those statements i believe it's another bull run which will eventually lower in few days again.

I will wait for bitcoin forever and I really like holding bitcoin in the long run, although many speculate about bitcoin news on the outside there I will not bother and I will not compare bitcoin before hing bitcoin now, which is clear I have bought bitcoin at prices low and I will wait for a long time and I am sure bitcoin will shine in the future.
Speculation, severe experts, technical analysis, actually I still do not believe it.

this is more like a bear trap and a short term opportunity for those bears that are more flexible and adaptive to make some profit otherwise the time of the bear market has been over for nearly 10 months now or ever since price broke the $4k resistance and started rising up.
the bull market has begun but it is not yet fast enough to satisfaction of a lot of users which is why we keep seeing these pull backs happening. pull backs that are always mistaken with bull trap which is why we see panic sells too. in any case the momentum is there but not a big one.

I don't think it's another trap because as long as we can analyze and can find more information related to the market, we will always find for the way, and we will know what to do. So it is a trap or not, that will depend on how you can analyze the bitcoin market, so you will know what happens later. Right now, bitcoin price is down again and reaches $7,069 while we don't know where bitcoin price will move on this day. But there is a little green candle appear at the market, and that brings a new hope for us to see a new pump in the next few hours.

Bitcoin took the lowest price at the end of 2018 and then approached $ 3000 and at the beginning of 2019 the price increased in February shot at $ 14k until the middle of the year, if at the end of 2019 the price drops I think it's reasonable to see buying interest and the lowest price for example $ 6000, we will see in the beginning of next year, will it be like before, but I am happy that bitcoin is always organized on charts so I can easily analyze it, only time will bring months to bitcoin and I say it will not be long, once again it is not a trap

I have to think positive, no its not a trap and I think that is a good sign though.
We never know what would happen but we can always expect some positive changes on the market, what the whales are doing is they are playing us around here, I noticed this year that there are a lot of unexpected price movement, especially on the pump side, but then again, the price is back to a lower position which we are experiencing now.

if bull run will happen by December, then well and good, but I will not expect on that, instead I'll wait for it next year where the big event will happen.

Well, its honestly just a time where people bought because the price dropped. And if you're gonna compare then and now, remember that BTC is gonna experience another halving in the May of 2020. This could be a point that BTC would take, and whether it woyld actually take a bullish or bearish run.

First, we had a death cross recently (triggering right now), and as well in the past in most of the years, the second half of December was always a downtrend due to upcomin taxation period, Christmas or cashing out for winter holidays. Unless there will be a bull run triggered by some whale, you can accumulate BTC cheaply, but do not expect much return yet, we are still away from 2020 bull run.

It's kinda funny how people have been speculating about a bull run that will commence soon the whole year while we have had one happen already and people still ignore it. The bull run is over and now we are on our way to complete the aftermath of that bull run, which generally is a painful process but one that smart money uses to hoard as many coins as possible.

There is no denying anymore; almost every indicator is bearish. I know it's not what people want to read, but I'm not promising moon while there potentially is more down side to explore in the coming weeks and months. If it's difficult to accept, then it probably means that you shouldn't have invested in Bitcoin to begin with.

For me its all bull trap unless the price is above $12k.

I have seen this term thrown around this forum recently "bull trap", but was the current situation a bull trap, the market was trying to break some resistance level and it was finding it hard to cross those levels and the market went down, there was no indication that the market was going up nor shown any signs of a bull run to say that it was a bull trap. I am waiting for to see how the market will perform by the end of this year and then i will have my analysis.

Thankfully, I believe it is not really a bull trap, we have seen a lot of people selling their coins and right now we are not at a stage where it could realistically go any lower for a trap, a trap would require price to go down a bit before going up so that people who want profit could make it go down, buy cheap and then improve the price insanely to profit, we are at the part where we are already as low as it gets before it gets crushed.

If we go any lower (like under 6.5k for example) we may end up at 3.4k or whatever once again which we can't really sustain anymore, we have done that before and went as high as 14k in the end, doing the same thing over and over again costs the smaller investors a lot of money and time so a lot more people will give up next time.

I think people are just buying low while they can. Those of us that truly believe in Bitcoin expect it to increase significantly over the next couple of years. This may be the lowest we see the price drop ever again.

If the price had breakdown lots of supports then it wont really be consider to be a bull trap.We arent still on the phase where we do able to see such one
yet weve been tanking for too long on 7k price levels and it do even go down.Moving neither both sides 5-10% on a day isnt really a new thing which
it do really look like a typical day here on crypto but there were people who do easily react and made wrong presumptions on what they do currently
seeing on the price.

The better one could be it is a sign that they want a cheaper price to buy bitcoin at.

We as low amount buyers will never feel much of it but it is better than nothing right?
Taking a double will be enough for me.
I have bought some bitcoin yesterday, it may be the last cheaper price we can get.
Next time, there could be a new bottom.

New bottom will be coming if there's a FUD created but i think this is just an accumulation phase. Where whales and traders started buying to accumulate it could move the price. So i don't think this is a bull trap because most who bought bitcoin at this price is probably starting to hodl as much as they can.

Well, looks like there actually is, eh? A $800 spike in the price makes me think that such lines aren't always a false signal  ::)

About this surge, looks to me like the capitulation period is over, or at least it's getting close to it (hopefully). Bull trap or not, it's good to see some big ass green candles after such a prolonged downtrend. But still, i'm gonna keep my expectections as low as possible, it's way too early to get excited about this increase in price.

O well, with such volatility i doubt this will be the lowest price ever, at least until the next coming soon halving. By 2021 i expect to not see 1 btc under $10k again :)

It's slightly unnerving. Near market bottoms, we often see longs dropping and shorts rising. That suggests decreasing sell pressure (because underwater longs have already been shaken out) and increasing buy pressure (from open shorts). Basically, it sets up a short squeeze situation.

We're seeing the opposite right now. Longs are up 23% over the past 5 days. It's not necessarily bearish; sometimes it just means smart money is accumulating position. The COT is not offering any bullish signals though.

LoL, every dump the question = Is this the sign for bearmarket etc

      every pump the question = Is this the sign for bullmarket etc

But most of those people not seems to care about BTC and only about there "FIAT" up/down ....

Please people learn to be BTC and understand why you buy BTC, don't go for a quick buck, or get rich fast opportunity, cause then your busy with the wrong stuff.

The halving in 2020 probably won't change the price into bullishness because as expected it will occur in 2021 but when is it exactly? Maybe in Q4 of 2021 that might be the start of Bitcoin to the moon trend. With all of this speculation about of the next halving it only spice up the news of Bitcoin to bull run.

I believe this is a bulls trap as well, the market is showing a slight recovery after the price went down so much so fast, but a slight recovery doesn't mean that the bull market is around the corner, it was completely natural for the price to slightly recover, it is important to see if the price can recover above 8000 which is the next resistance level if that doesn't happen it will not surprising at all if we saw the price going back a price closer to 7000.

However this should be considered to be a great opportunity for those that like to buy bitcoin whenever there is a dip because I really think that we are getting close to the bottom that the price will reach during this year.

Prediction can be right or maybe wrong but what I noticed yesterday is bitcoin dump crazy and bounced again maybe we should wait for a slow down because this is a bear vs bull run attempt.

The continued lower lows that we've been achieving on higher timeframes like the daily and weekly definitely isn't a good sign for the bulls (as well as continued lower highs), and it's looking somewhat likely at this point that we're in a channel downwards as every pump seems to bleed off into a newer low. There's still strong support at $6500 holding this up stemming from the breakout earlier this year in May out of the $5k range, which I expect will hold, though.

There isn't really any momentum *yet* just as there wasn't any momentum when bitcoin fell to under $6700 the other day.  It was a quick up and down type of thing, just like this pop to above $7500 might not have any momentum to it.  That's something which can only be determined in retrospect.

But any way you cut it, it's better that bitcoin is up and buy orders are currently greater than sell orders.  Things could have ended up a lot worse for the week, because it wasn't clear to anyone whether bitcoin was going to make a recovery or whether it was going toward $6000 or even lower.  Someone on the forum was talking about $3000 even.  If bitcoin went that low or even looked like it was going there, you would know there was some hellish momentum behind it.  Right now there's none.

Bitfinex these days is pretty irrelevant to the markets... well unless something happens to their Tether company. But using Bitfinex in 2019 is not like 2016 which dominated most Bitcoin trading.

So I wouldn't focus too much on their market sells and buys. I also stopped looking at their long and short ratios since they seem very inaccurate these days.

Most trading is done with derivative markets like Bitmex or on the large Binance exchange. When I am doing my analysis I usually look at those 2 and never Bitfinex.

Yep, there's a pretty clear down channel here. In fact, it might have been one technical reason for stopping near $6,500 rather than the highly anticipated low $6,000s area:

https://i.imgur.com/q8Crv9h.png

I'm a big trend trader. There's no doubt we're in a downtrend, and it's sensible to keep betting that trend. Having said that though, the structure of the downtrend is not that bearish. It isn't impulsive. It's an orderly correction that keeps overlapping into the previous range. That tells me supply is weaker than all the bearish sentiment suggests.

If you're shorting down here, make sure to have stops on the book. The bears trading with "mental stops" got slaughtered by the October run to $10,500.

The halving will definitely take place in 2020.

The event occurs in 2020 and no doubt speculation before but the effects of that event are mostly in the price for 2021.    Anyone whose in shares will be familiar that the price is not for today but an estimation of future accounts, so the halvening is not immediate transformation but the price then will estimate.   2021 is where the bulk of gains from halvening should occur so far as I know because it represents less supply over time.
  I think people jump the gun a little too much on that one, I guess I should be happy if we see some predictable washout and to be more optimistic towards the end of next year if that should be the case despite any negative mood.


Theres plenty of doubt while the 200 day is rising thats a disparity and its muddy water, my take is there is not trend especially its just lost the uptrend and we get some sell from lack of those previous gains and speculation must leave the price like a wet rag wrung dry.    When we got the more solid base, we can see some change.   I dont think we are quite set into a determined negative trend.

This is just a question of time frames. By some metrics the monthly chart is still in an uptrend, and the yearly chart is clearly bullish. The decade-long uptrend is comfortably intact.

However at the daily and weekly time frames, we are very clearly in a downtrend. Lower highs and lower lows, a declining 20-week MA, price is down 43% over 5 months, etc.

That short to mid-term bearish outlook hasn't changed yet, though I do believe we are near the bottom.