Bitcoin Forum

An insider with his ear on the tracks, whispered to me this:

The next much anticipated halving event will be a dud. There will not be a parabolic push up in price. It will steadily move sideways in the 5,000 range with low volatilty. Baffling everyone and flattening peoples interest in bitcoin. Meanwhile people will start buying and trading alts again and stablecoins will see a significant rise in popularity especially with big corporations.

So much for making big gains from the next Bitcoin halving event. You are all shit out of luck?

Everyone who has been in Bitcoin long enough knows that the halving is the lowest part in the parabolic growth.
The ATH is always half way between the halvings.

So if you sell your stash ant GTFO that would be great!  :P

Too many six-digit predictions. Too many one million predictions. Too many theories pointing that bitcoin will repeat the previous cycle. But the previous cycle didnt repeat the cycle before it.

I believe we are still to see the shaking that happened in the second half of 2015. Contrary to what I believed before, the cycle is stretched, not shrunk. 2011-2013 was two years, 2013-2017 was four years. Who knows, maybe this cycle will have six years.

I believe Masterluc prediction is on point. We are going to see $1000-$1200 after the halving, and the next ATH will only happen in 2021. A bull market like 2017 will only happen in 2023.

youre right on that , and there are known people who just predicted bitcoin price going to skyrocket but the question is if they knew bitcoin will reach thier prediction why they arent buying? Why bitcoin price drops instead of going up because of thier predictions.

Hahaha

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=X4HaR5DYTGg 
 ;)

The simpliest answer to your question because bitcoin is full of suprises no one will know what will happen to the price sometimes your predictioncan be change on direction like what happen right now most people think the price will be grow up before the 2020 halving but look the price drop.

Most of the people doing these predictions are millionaires. Some are even owners of exchanges.
I believe they are doing these predictions so that people dont lost interest in bitcoin, and keep buying it from their hands.
They are the ones who are shorting it.

We really don't know on what will happen after the halvinf but i think the value will plummet right away and it could take months for the value of bitcoin to rise again.

And also selling before the halving could be a good deal since we can make a profit before the market crisis again and we'll need to wait flr the bull signal and make rally to go up trens again.

For me, the price of $1000-1200 will not reach that down after the bitcoin halving, I'm still looking forward that it would take gains compared to its current price. And I think, bull market will happen first before reaching the next ATH.

If we predict it doesn't mean that it will really happen, it also considers a guess. So a guess may or may not. Some expect that the price of Bitcoin will pump after the halving, they only want to see it increasing so they can sell to make profits not just only to buy more. Bitcoin is really unpredictable, there are no right predictions at always.

I totally agree with this and said it on a different thread.

There is an ABC correction occurring as we speak, heading to 5k, even probably below.

I don't know if halving will have an effect but if it has an impact, it won't be before years 2023-2024.

In the meantime, sell at 8k or 9k. My opinion  :-*


PS: the halving effect predicting BTC price to climb up above 20k next year is one of the dumbest I have ever read, sadly. Even though someone else predicting 25k for next month (in the Observing Price thread) probably takes the cake.  :P

This. Dude, the graphs have already shown it. BTC always dips down to lows during the halving. At least after a year would it only St pop off and start reaching for another ATH. Even if BTC went to 5k right now, most HODLers wouldn't even blink an eye off of it. Why? Because almost every hodlers know that the season of BTC is not during the halving, since most people panic sell by then, believing that BTC would lose its value once the supply that is being steadily released dwindled down, but rather after the halving itself.

I doubt so. Sure, I thought at first BTC would actually drop with the first few halvings but then I noticed that the design of each halving was made as such so that its rarity actually increases with each halving. BTC might drop down a few times, but it would still go a bearish season by the end of it, and would just let the market experience a bit of depression by the middle of it.

You're not the first person to think that the upcoming halving event won't make the price of the crypto market to pump cause a lot of articles have talked about it but if you're saying this base on the articles which have being wrote about halving to be dud you're totally wrong cause the halving protocol was to be the pathway for new ATH before market correction/blood bath.

Indeed better conditions like this, at least this can filter which is really able to keep bitcoin in order to remain there than every day we see complaints from people who are panic sell.
Because if you see the price is broken due to panic sell, not because of other factors that are very influential.

A drop or a steady price weeks before and after the halving will likely took place, but after few months from it, we will see a new level maybe with $15k as the lowest price

Erm, both halvings so far have been duds on the day. Not a lot happened. I expect it to be no different this time. The price could well be a fair bit lower than it is now.

I'm looking to 2021 to see whether there are any ripples. I'm expecting 2020 to be not all that much in the great scheme of things.



And what the fuck does this mean? Does this person have little weevils swimming around inside the brains of millions of people, some of whom haven't even heard of Bitcoin yet, who can predict their future actions and email him daily reports? If so colour me impressed.

That's not his prediction. He expected to hit $1,300-$3,000 last year; we came close to it. Then he predicted a rally to the historic log trend ~ $14K (which happened) followed by a test of $6K (has now almost happened). https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/JSP3KDmy-New-long-term-prediction-as-I-see-it-now/


That type of thinking goes both ways. People are making way too many assumptions about a "4 year cycle" or that the next cycle must take longer just because 2013-2017 did. These aren't reliable patterns. The next cycle will look different from the previous ones. That's really all I can bank on.

How do you see it is on point? Is there any technical analysis support to break this cycle's low again? I am not seeing any such possibilities as lots of positive things are happening all around the crypto world. For example, Bakkt is doing great like its volume is indicating how people are interested in bitcoin investments and another one good news is, German banks to sell cryptos from 2020.

I believe it would be too hard to see bitcoin prices to break $7000 again. The recent one of below $7000 could be the last one we could see forever. Halving is just 6 months away. Most probably we are going to end this year with bitcoin prices above $15k and times of halving we may have prices trading near $20k still new ATH may happen by the end of 2020.

At the halving - $10,000 to $12,000.

Late 2021 - $70,000 to $100,000.

All I can say is OK.

Whoever that insider is wants people to believe that we're all lacking of luck so that they can push their own agenda.

We've seen such predictions before like your insider and no luck for them, $1k was the lowest I've heard for the last bear market but didnt even saw it.

So, ok if you think we lack of luck but we have seen the before and after situations of halving.

On the day, sure.

In both 2012 and 2016 though, BTC rallied hard prior to the halving itself. From June to August 2012, the price went up 219%. From April to June 2016, the price went up 106%. Litecoin's 560% rally this year should also be partly attributed to halving hype. Just like Bitcoin in 2012 and 2016, the selloff began months before the actual top.

For price not to be marked up like previous cycles, there would need to be a reduction in demand. Lowering the inflation rate means that all else equal, price should rise, since miners represent a significant portion of active market supply.

I've heard the same stories last halving, and all of them were wrong. So please, go on and bet for a long-term decline.

Who is that person with his ear to the tracks, so to speak?  Reading this, it just sounds like a bunch of fud that could have been made up by anyone.  Anyone at all.

Stable coins becoming popular with corporations?  How does anyone come to that prediction?  That one baffles me, because there's no good reason for any company to be holding or investing in stable coins.  No need whatsoever.  The only part of this I *might* agree with is that altcoins will perhaps perk up.  Some of them are worth buying right now, as is bitcoin for that matter.  But I seriously doubt bitcoin is going to end up trading in the $5000 range while alts go up in value on their own.  It could occur, but I doubt it.

The halfing may not have much of an effect on the price of bitcoin, but there’s no way of knowing at the moment.  Not you, not me, and not this person who is making some very specific predictions and who claims to be able to predict the future. 

I kind of agree with this.  I dont think the next leg up will happen until 6-12 months after the halving.  Halving event pricing is priced in up front so it's hard to say that the lower block rewards will result in higher prices.  I would say we should be in this same type range (7-9k) up until halving then a little drop off until we start to see steady surges coming in behind it.

most people in this community always say bitcoin will go to the month of 2021 after being reduced by half in 2020. they compare and see the previous year that bitcoin is always pumping after being reduced by half.
but I also don't know whether in 2020 it will be the same as in 2016. Only time can answer that. we can only pray that bitcoin can pump up to our expectations.

Did you even ask your ghost whisperer what altcoin is (it) (he) (i dont know ;D) supporting?

Do you even have bitcoin at the first place?
Why the hell are you in bitcointalk and yet you talk like that?
I mean, what the hell?
Signed up for a bitcoin forum just to make this kind of statements? Do you really love wasting time?  ;D

Something might have fallen in your head.  ;D I hope you didn't get an internal hemorrhage.

Not all are expecting much with the halving. Idiots will or newbies who are too lazy to dig more into what halving is really all about.
They thought it will just be another milking cow for crypto traders or holders but it is not.
Anything can happen in the crypto market and it could really go low or high.

Here is one help for you. BTW, I just used google. Try it some time.

whoever claims to be an insider and then gives you suggestions about the market is a big scammer and you must stay away from these people ;)

people's interest in bitcoin is not because of its shooting price. it is because of the strength and security that it has.
as for the rise, we will see another shoot up before the halving and it will most probably be big since there are a lot of new people with fresh money who are expecting the same exact thing as last 2 times to happen and will act on it which means a big price rise!

stablecoins will only gain popularity during the widespread shitcoin pumps where day traders need something they can dump their shitcoins to. and if bitcoin goes sideways and has such gigantic drop to $5k then shitcoins will have an extremely hard time getting any pumps.

my luck is in bitcoin staying below $10k or even less not in its price going up because the longer it stays here the more bitcoin i can accumulate with my paycheck which i use a portion of to buy bitcoin.
the only ones that would be shit out of luck are those who are bag holding altcoins thinking if bitcoin price doesn't rise then altcoins should :D

And did you believe what your source told you, did you had proof on why did he say something like this? it sounded like a FUD to me, so many would-be afraid and panic in selling their stash Bitcoin, this is my opinion, I think that there is one who wants to manipulate the market by setting up FUD but in my opinion, it may have some effect but I think it will be a slight move only,

we are in the longest period of a bearish movement many will surely believe this and the drama will be brought down the price to another level of downward movement, And right now I am seeing a lot of negative predictions that saying that the price of Bitcoin will be so bearish, If that the case then weak hands did believe that parabolic bearish thing.

I think you are absolutely correct. I can explain the reason behind this Actually halving just reduces the pace of creation of supply of bitcoin and not the stock of supply reaction to this isn't immediate and it takes time for the market to realize this imbalance in supply demand and then price gets skyrocketed so no one is thinking that just after thr day of halving we will see the ATH. I would like to show a chart from my very own post which I created earlier depicting effect of halving on

You can clearly see the All time high was seen somewhere around the 30-40% mark of the market because only after that the imbalance of Supply and demand was visible. I would try to dig deep and see if there is some static formula which works behind this.

We're all insiders relatively because you are here and a user, the outsiders are the mainstream word especially those stuck in cash only who are being diluted of their worth by inflation exceeding actual growth.    If the outsiders favour the benefits of being an insider to Bitcoin then you have a base of growth in Bitcoin population probably and its likely FIAT continues to decline in holding any reasonable standard.
  The halvening just represents less each time it occurs, its a known change to new Bitcoins issued.   It is a bullish event as the contrast is that Bitcoin is issuing less while FIAT is increasing its supply of new currency, the ratio between the two is what results in a higher price.

Time never repeats, it rhymes so we'll see appreciation over years I think and people tend to over speculate when  they see this gain.   We always assume we get results like fast food not fine wine.
  Bitcoin surprised me, I didnt judge it as a decade long fine wine, so now I have learn my lesson and consider it's more then just what we can see on the horizon, I'm more bullish on 2021 then 2020.

There have been 2 havling events in the past. The first one resulted in BTC increasing in price by 80 times in about a year, and the second resulted in a +25 times price increase in about a year and a half. actually it usually starts climbing about a year prior to halving, then dips slightly right after halving, then starts a gradual rise from there, ultimately ending in a parabolic bull run about 12–18 months later. Most of that happens in the last 30 days, and most of that happens in the last 10 days. But obviously the fact that the past was bullish after halving does not necessarily imply that it will be also with the next halving.

As more and more people will have bitcoins the volatility will decrease and prices will be stable but this could not happen within 2 - 3 years. Bitcoin is still in its early years where only a few people have bitcoins with them and therefore this halving will produce the similar results as happened in 2017.

Yes there are chances that it might lead to one more Bull run which is expected by most of the users but still there are doubts because unlike 2017 the market is highly manipulative now as it got more players and group of traders who are hell bent in manipulating the market. We might see an unusual year ahead.

This is the thing thats why we can say that 50-50 chance to repeat the history or not.OP's saying directly mentioning on the other side which it isnt really bad to presume
but moving sideways on 5k levels after halving event sounds really an impossible thing into my ears.

if that happens again repeating the previous cycle, what do you want to give to the analysis, 2016 you just created a bitcointalk account maybe you don't know too much about this cycle, don't be patient because you came in bitcoin after halving 2016 and then saw bitcoin touch ATH in 2017, so what you expect is 2023 is too long, I am among those who predict 2020 2021 later, so let's look at that

You are just too hungry to force something to come right away, so just wait next year, relax and just watch

If we look back the track of the history it's really impossible to see this figures coming up when halving comes but if there's a major interruption will come maybe provably we can see those predicted bad figures to show up. But since we are doing great and maintain the stability these days maybe those fuds is wrong since provably we can see a great pump next year and hopefully we will be right on this since it's really awful to feel always that we are on bear market these days.

And they did that whisper to you for you to be left in the dark.  ;D
You will just become another FOMO afterwards.

They can say all the sh1t that they want but it wont be stopped.
It ain't about the halving actually but more of the hype that will come.
Trust with bitcoin had grown and more people are into it. 2 months after the halving and you will see it. Better to fasten your seatbelt.

There is no hype without substance, the fact is that halving will reduce the number of coins being released and in turn it will create a deflation in the market and if there are many buyers and less sellers then you will see the price going up and it is simply moved on the basis of demand and supply and when you see more buyers coming in the market people will start investing in it and create a temporary bubble and it will go on as long as the bubble lasts.

https://i.imgur.com/zgXTyNm.jpg

Just love to look at the S/F ratio when hearing about the halving.

indeed no one knows for sure whether bitcoin will go to the moon after being reduced by half. at the moment we are only speculating and comparing with the previous halving day.
we know that the price of bitcoin is greatly influenced by demand and supply. when the number of bitcoins being mined decreases but demand continues to grow naturally the bitcoin price will rise. this is what always makes me optimistic that bitcoin will be bull after being reduced by half.

any prediction is not a problem. but this is the crypto world. anything can happen. I personally still believe bitcoin will have a value of more than $ 10,000 after halving occurs. yeah, they think like that. because for the past 10 years bitcoin has no important function other than just for trading and transactions. so the more difficult bitcoin is mined, it can make the miners not continue. This is in my opinion about the statement you wrote.

Price history would repeat itself again as far as the halving of bitcoin is concerned come 2020, every crypto enthusiasts is expecting a massive pump based on the two previous halving experiences I am predicting the price to be well above $15,000 there was a lot of  massive adoption of bitcoin 2017 coupled with the halving that really triggers the price then however a lot of newbies who bought at the peak were disappointed with massive dumping in the price that occurred then thus were disappointed and left bitcoin I wouldn't expect such a massive embracing of bitcoin in 2017 to happen again in 2020.

I don't believe that there is any insider of the market movement that will tell you exactly how the market is going to move after halving come next year, don't be JJ C of what called themselves about market movement of Bitcoin and crypto currency in general.

I'm still thinking the next halving will show no noticable change in price pattern. It will possibly mimic Litecoins last halving that was a dud. In that regard, I think it IS predictable this time around. Each day we start to identify more patterns with Bitcoin that are ringing true. Bitcoin now has enough history behind it that we can start figuring it out its behavior much better.

To recap: the next Bitcoin halving will possibly just be business as usual without any noticable effect in price or pattern.

It seems like a monopoly is going to happen if there are insiders in the market that is planning to make their own trading signals. Well, i don't know what happens if people know this but i think there is something that can stop monopoly if ever there is.
In 2020, i think the price will be a little stable just like what happen to bitcoin this year.

Bitcoin prices at the time of halving might be heavily dependent on where we will be closing this year. Yes, this year's closing price will act as a big psychological factor among traders and investors to decide their directions. Unlike most people are aware, closing and opening prices along with year's high and low are being considered for the calculations of support and resistant levels of next year.

That calculation is simply known as pivot point analysis. If bitcoin prices close above $10k this year, then traders may keep faith and may keep investing which may lead prices to trade above $15k at the time of halving and if we fail to have prices to stay above $8 and trading below $7k levels then we may have new low in 2020 as traders may find market is moving towards its support levels rather than trying to break the resistance levels.

It's the part I like to hear, in cryptoworld anything can happen. Mining difficulty will rise, fewer rewards with the same mining gear, this will affect miners a lot, and they will not sell under the price and be at loss. The price will rise after the halving, but we can't be precise how long after the halving. It will take time for things to lay down, and for us to see the effects of halving on price, we need to be patient and wait for that.

This is also a pretty good conspiracy theory. I think he was obsessed with Litecoin's halving event, now it is far more discounted than when the official halving event happened. But I disagree with his opinion. Because Litecoin seems to be quiet and they are no longer holding large investors, its value has plummeted recently. This halving event of Bitcoin is sure to cause a strong wave and make its price rise even more.

That is the point actually. And the reason is that those predictions are not guarantees. As long as something is called as a prediction more so coming from anyone just like you and me then there is a big probability that it might not be coming true at all. That is the reality we have to face. Here in the world of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency because of the volatile nature of the assets people have become speculators and as extension are more to be predicting of what can be. These should not be taken seriously maybe we can just look at these predictions to be entertainment just like going to a fortune-teller.

If that fortune gathers good results, I believed that was destined to happen. Just like what happened from year of bullish market in 2017, that wasn't predicted and yet it proved it's reality. The upcoming years would be so unpredictable, we didn't know when it would be or 2020 might be the perfect year or not? That remains a big questions for all of us and we can't find someone who can provide us more accurate answers by now due to uncertainty of the market situation.

I say, on the contrary!
Market is full of insiders and you are one of them. Basically all of us are insiders, in a sense of course.
We saw what happened last time, there is nothing in a way for it to repeat this time.
It's only logical to assume that something that is tradable, reduces itself in quantity, it's price must skyrocket.
I think it will score a new ATH and soon after, it will take a step back. Two steps forward - one step back, kinda deal.

Halving will occur around May 2020 and I am expecting the price to be dropping by some value by then, just my gut feeling there is no logic I can give behind that. But, the demand as you mentioned does not get affected due to halving. Halving in simple words means the reward per block mined by the miners will be reduced to half so it should be 6.75 BTC per block for the miners and when lesser number of bitcoins are mined the price of bitcoins will go up since less bitcoins are being generated.

I am sure that due to halving, we will end 2020 with new ATH. Yes, around the times of halving we may the market conditions what we are having right now but reduced supply will boost prices slowly which will definitely lead to new ATH by December of 2020.

That's way too far to initiate if we will wait another one year, and December 2020 was too long. With the new ATH, I guess it would be so fast to rise when halving take effect in early January next year. We need not be bothered for long waits.

I also thought about this.
What if the price of bitcoin does not rise after halving?
what if the price is stable or down?
Well, despite the many questions after that, we still don't know the results. however, we need to try to take advantage of that opportunity. it's better than continuing to worry. look at the positives, you're trying to accumulate assets to make more. if the price goes up at that time, then your prediction is correct, if not, you have collected the assets well.

Just look at the bigger picture. It could be that near the halving , the bitcoin price may dump instead of rising or it may dump right after halving, but all those movements will be temporary as bitcoin will rise and cross all time high any time within one year after the halving.

^ Last bitcoin halving it will cause a massive increase on Bitcoin so we expect now that it will repeat again. Each of us has a different perspective on a prediction but the fact is bitcoin price is unpredictable and no one knows what will be happened. Miners will get a reward when halving comes so it means and logically it will affect the demand and the supply. There are also instances that after the halving they will sell their bitcoin. Who really knows what will happen and much better let's wait the time will reveal the truth.

I think there's a good chance that leading up to the halving will be the last chance to get a 4 figure Bitcoin, and I doubt we will ever see this opportunity again.
I also don't think a 5 figure Bitcoin will last as long as 4 figures has. We'll probably spend longer at 6 figures before another correction in my mind.

Just have some cash on the sidelines for an eventual dump. 6 figures ? Haha boy you're definitely not dreaming small ^^

Who talk who? Halving is the most awaited event and it never fails to make bitcoin market price wonder at the top. I mean look, just look in the past two halving that had happened, it is just a year after that bitcoin price soar. And someone would talk that it would go sideways? Well, yes. At the time span of pumping. Though we ain't sure but at least we have a foundation to hold with such idea.

Indeed, don't worry I have my levels carved out (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5206530) for an eventual dump (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5205261.0)  ;)
You're right, I'm not dreaming small. Also wouldn't be selling shit until 6 figures either.

I get what your concern is, but the more difficulty in mining BTC means the higher price of bitcoins and hence the miners will be compensated in either ways, if miners were earning 25 BTC per block and reduced to 12.5 you can see still there's no problem about miners because the price increased and sorted the issue.

That's the actual reason why bitcoin price rise when halving occurs because the miners reward is decreased to half ( as suggest by the word halving) and hence the price tends to go up.

I'm kind of wondering how this next halving is going to affect bitcoin, and it's something I thought about before the last one when I had the feeling that the halving would have already been priced into bitcoin well before it happened.  If I recall, I was wrong about what really happened, which was a rise in price afterwards.

The problem is that nobody knows when something gets priced in, especially not with a halving, the exact time of which is known so far in advance.  If you believe in efficient market theory, all the halving should have been priced in right when bitcoin was created.  I'm personally not a believer in strongly efficient markets, but I also don't think bitcoin necessarily needs to start moving upward right after a halving.

I'll boggle my own mind if I keep thinking about it, so I'll stop.  It will be very interesting to see what happens right before and after the next halving.  It's only a few months away, so I'll have my eyes crazy-glued to preev in May.

I have a new halving prediction, for anyone that might be interested. I'll warn you, it's rather boring. It's based on the idea premise that price will be the same as it is now  ::)

Let see if the price will hit that price. If ever in late 2021 the price of bitcoin reach the $70,000 to $100,000 many people will become instant millionaire especially the people who bought at the price of $3000. I am still willing to wait or to hold my bitcoin until it hit again its all-time high price.

I think what will happen will be more like what happened during the Litecoin halving in August.

Prior to halving the price climbed to $150, and once halving happened, people took profits and the price plunged to the $50 range.

So - if bitcoin emulates this, it will go to about $12,000 to $15,000 before halving. Afterwards people will take profits and it will settle back where it is now: about $7,500.

Like most of bitcoiners, I'm also expecting a new ATH to be set after halving. It's the most awaited event and no one wants to be left by rocket because of the hype effect. An opportunity to sell at high price. Some speculating $50k, $100k, and even million. For me $30k is the most realistic that btc could reach this coming halving. Others prediction are too high because they based it in the past, the growth percentage from previous ATH. Some are just made by their mischievous thinking.

that is few things people to prepare waiting bitcoin halving many people are excited with  halving event because when bitcoin halving also brings the good impact for altcoins, its make altcoin increase price so trader get more profit from these event
but there is no one know surely of when bitcoin halving, people just prediction between 2020 or 2021..honestly i dont know when bitcoin halving but im thinking maybe last end of 2020 or half of 2021

Halving can make bitcoin have higher price with many prediction always when halving time each for years bitcoin raised to higher price, last halving time is 2017 where bitcoin growing above $16K and give much profit for all investor, I think for second bitcoin halving give positive effect where bitcoin and altcoin keep raise with higher price.

There is no coin halving in 2017 rather it was in 2016. bitcoin reached its peak after 1.5 years of coin halving in 2016
2016 coin halving passed away quietly and I am sure this will pass too. We must stay vigilant from these speculations.

I am still waiting when would that halving starts to create more new rising price, but as the expectations grows stronger I don't see any progress for the main time. That's true we experienced successful price increase last 2017, but it was totally different now in 2019 because the market never responded the way we like it to. Hopefully with second halving, there's a positive movements that will initiate good outcomes.

Well, good to know what's coming in the next 5 months, pretty boring hah  :D
At least, we have to prepare some spare cash to survive through the months and the rest to buy more bitcoin.
At this point, better to watch closely to put short or long positions.

I won't believe much in the result of the prediction and even the crypto price analysis knew that the probability of their prediction to happen is narrow because of the market stance (volatility in nature). Mind you, a single whale can change the price of the market as we speak not to talk about the upcoming halving market.

You're right there's a good chance this prediction will not happen, predominantly as it's one of a few I've published recently that contradicts other "so far" accurate bearish predictions (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5188537.msg52592386#msg52592386), of anywhere between a $2,500 and $6,400 low, but otherwise around $5k on average. It's definitely a prediction that would contradict most of my other analysis, hence publishing it.

The halving at the time it happens will be close to many events, launching of many stablecoins, possible wars between them, all in turn there are many probabilities that Bitcoin rises, in addition to people's emotions, perhaps the Halving effect does not It looks immediate, it may take 1 or 2 months, even if adoption is helping a lot.

I follow [urlhttps://twitter.com/100trillionUSD]PlanB[/url] and its prediction model closely, I see that it has been very successful, I hope it continues to be met, there are many expectations regarding this.

https://i.imgur.com/IgwA9F2.png
Source: https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1109168697250377728 (https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1109168697250377728)

alright me too, i also waiting for the halving comes. many people so excited about bitcoin halving and they are prepare to take their profit
but you wrong with waiting second halving, because bitcoin has been halving in 2013 and 2017 and the next third halving in 2020 or 2021? just waiting to see it, prepare from now and take profit from it

I'm glad that you that did the analysis understand my point of impression because the above user was so optimistic which the prediction and he might not understand the concept of the crypto market trading very adequately, so in other for him not to make mistake I have to correct him.

The stock-to-flow model probably has some merit but it won't remain true forever. That would be impossible. Eventually the model will dictate that BTC's market capitalization be larger than the entire world economy. And with more halvings, the value is still supposed to grow exponentially larger than that. It becomes completely nonsensical.

So the question becomes: when will the stock-to-flow model fail?

I wanted to be a fly to see the face of Tom Lee and john Mcafee, they were the people who always made very optimistic price forecasts and the year is ending and all I see on the news channels is dark news like these:

Bitcoin Set to Enter Disbelief Phase Should Hodlers Prep for 2.8k (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-set-to-enter-disbelief-phase-should-hodlers-prep-for-28k)

Just imagine:

at the end of next year John McAfee sitting in his boat and then opens his laptop, enters the coinmarketcap and look at the price of bitcoin:

1 BTC = $2800. hahaha

the guy will have a nervous breakdown

while John McAfee is having a nervous breakdown because he saw him priced at $2800... at the same time Tom Lee will be getting a lot of calls from his customers complaining that they lost a lot of money. hahahaha

Jokes aside, of course I find it impossible for the price to fall to $2800. But the bottom line is that it may be possible that it will take many years after half to see high prices

Even though it was a depressing market show but people are still hoping that it won't be like that and they will see the rise of market price after halving.
If altcoins will move on that time, it for sure that investors may start to look and invest altcoins but somehow it is gonna be a tough decision and a risk move cause we know altcoins low performance nowadays.
And I am hoping I could have a luck next year.

Really agree with you mate, most expert prediction for bitcoin in the late of 2021 will above $50k. Just remember in the previous halving, like 2016. Lower supply will increase the price. And now maybe will be a cheapest price of bitcoin. And if we back to 2009, when bitcoin price only $1, who will believe the price will increase x20.000i n 8 years?. 😁

There are only two things discussed in the crypto market, beraish trend and coin halving. They both are in some way related to each other. We are in bearish trend that is giving us great opportunity to buy. Coin halving, as speculations says it will take bitcoin price high. So not take advantage of that and buy.

I think halving day bitcoin is a moment that is always awaited by most bitcoin investors. because we have seen the history of bitcoin that bitcoin always experiences a high increase after decreasing by half. and I'm also optimistic that bitcoin will reach a new ATH after being reduced by half. and usually bitcoin takes a year to get to the moon. it means that according to my prediction bitcoin will reach a new ATH in 2021. hopefully bitcoin moves according to our expectations.

   Back then nobody believed in that, probably that was just a crazy dream that Bitcoin can make it less then 10 years. And that
was the hard part, it's easier for price to rise to 50k from this point, it's just x5, that is was to move from 1 to 1000 dollars.
   I beleive that price can be between 50k and 100k in late 2021. It will be a top, new all times high price for Bitcoin. But where to
expect next bottom from there? Will 50k be a new bottom in less then 2 years?

Maybe they're still waiting for the price to drop, or maybe they're just waiting for the right time. Because they are looking forward to lower prices that could be recorded next year.
But I think the price of bitcoin will increase after bitcoin halving, and let's not expect the btc price to reach $ 20,000 again as it could only reach 15,000 $ because people will sell immideiatly to safe thier profit from the possible big dump.

Already the end of 19 and halving "on nose" but something special is not visible changes, tortoise steps that even old values cannot catch up with

There are a lot of predictions that I keep seeing in the internet about the big growth of the bitcoin after the halving. I do not know if it really happens and I do not believe to anyone and I only relying to my self. I will only buy bitcoin if the bear market will be a bull market because in uptrend the price is keep rising so loss is avoidable.

I know everyone is focused on the halvening but I think we are too crowded around a small fire here with our backs to the greater movements in the global economy.   If Bitcoin is measured in dollars then we got no choice but to pay attention to moves in the dollar, even if BTC did zero the move in dollar has the effect on the price to make it appear weaker or stronger.
   So rather then Halvening which is becoming a lighter effect on every iteration I'm looking at FED policy, I'd say its boring perhaps in comparison to big BTC moves really I think it has more influence as to where is the future low or the peak going to appear at.     If FED is loosening money then we have a supply of dollars likely to find BTC through one means or another in speculation and global expenditure and transfer.   If FED somehow tightens and this can happen sharply then I will expect lower BTC whether we like it or not.
  I believe external forces are greater and I hope BTC has the focus to process under pressure and prove useful.

I guess that 50k+ would be a bit more difficult, people think of the % style of increases, if it increased 500% before why shouldn't it increase 500% again, but the reality is going from 3k to 10k is not the same as going from 10k to 30k and it is certainly not the same as going from 30k to 100k.

When the price goes higher, it takes a lot more money (and I mean A LOT MORE) to increase the price some more, that is why it is definitely a possibility but it is quite more difficult now that we are at around 7k now, we might go to 20k levels or even 30k is possible but when we talk about 100k and stuff like that I feel that is not going to happen that quickly. Maybe if bitcoin keeps its power for another 10 years then we can see bitcoin at around 100k or even more but not for the next one or two years.

don't make expectations too high. there is no one know about bitcoin price in the future or bitcoin halving makes bitcoin increase high price. previously halving bring the bitcoin increase high price but i am not sure bitcoin halving will happen like before for the next because no one know about bitcoin in the future . when people interest to buy bitcoin in 2020 maybe bitcoin will increase price . just see conditions market at the moment

Let's just hope that we won't enter a new bear market again to flush out all the halving bulls  ::)

did you see the previous history of bitcoin bro? nobody believe it. all of them just saying "no body know what will happen in future". but when they see all the predicted thing become true, then they said "we are feeling sorry. why we are not following your word? we lost the chance to become richman". that happened in 2013 and 2017.

Believe on the impossible things because everything can happen with bitcoin and I do have to agree on this speculation. The demand for bitcoin continues to increase, every year and every seconds of our life people are buying bitcoin and if it becomes totally limited in supplies, then expect the price to go up and beyond. The halving succeed before, and it will also succeed this time with a much attention from the public.

After the halving, expect BTC's value to halve too! It'll be worth under $500 by end of 2020 and gone by end of 2021. It's just one big failed experiment!

   Dirgayeah you explained everything I wanted to say. In the past there were people with optimistic predictions, and there were
denyers. Now we saw who was right, people who believed in Bitcoin no matter what.
   I will not make a mistake and sell my Bitcoins, even if price drops to 5000$, I will buy more. One day price will recover and make
new ATH. Now manipulators are making money with trading, but when more people join and when market becomes huge it will be
hard for manipulators to do something.

I doubt 2020 halving will be mush effective in changing the price to a great extent. If you see the easiler halvings, you will notice that halving don't bring instant price change in bitcoin. Same gonna happen again. This all fomo surrounding the halving might all go in vain.

The only thing that could bring a significant change in price is if whales back this halving. If the start manipulating the price given the fomo towards upward direction, price might go up  given the  volume is supporting the trend.

Sound unrealistic but indeed it could be happen on this market. But I just doubt and wondering, why there are many people who have a bad prediction to bitcoin price when the halving event comes.

Whilst, if we look at the history when the halving event comes for almost this event came bitcoin price will surge drastically (you need to lool the by yourself).  But you are freely to make a prediction and I'll be happy if your prediction will never come/happen.