Bitcoin Forum

⁠Bitcoin’s May 2020 block reward halving won’t affect price, says Morgan Creek.

"In a tweet on Dec. 1, Jason Williams, co-founder at digital asset fund Morgan Creek Digital, said that unlike many others, he believed markets would not move as a result of the halving next May".

https://cointelegraph.com/news/halving-will-be-non-event-for-btc-price-morgan-creek-digital-exec?utm_source=Telegram&utm_medium=social

i think at this point so many people are saying that the halving WILL effect price positively, that now we have others that just wanna bet against the herd or w.e : /
people should have locked in their predictions months ago, its too late to start now imo :P
If we go with theory, it should go up, but who knows how many people are going to stay in profiting taking (sell mode) thru 2020, that could keep it down easily too
institutional money is in now, they make killings off just a few % up and down thru the months. Time will tell!

I also agree. I've been around for the last halving and from what I remember, nothing much happened and it was actually what happened in the ensuing months that was significant and was likely still tied to the halving, though, and I don't think many people actually expect the exact date of the halving or the days/weeks around it to be when the real action starts to happen, though it'll probably kick in soon enough afterwards. You also have to remember that history doesn't always repeat itself like you would expect, though, and I'm certainly ready for a case where the price doesn't significantly move upwards even a few months after the halving kicks in. Could certainly be a possibility considering a lot of people seem to be banking on it now and Bitcoin likes to screw over the majority.

I think we should be ready for any outcome.
Litecoin showed an impressive growth around halving even in a bearish market, so we can safely assume there would be a strong force bringing it up but again large whales too would be active to earn for themselves by fooling general traders. That may be a strategy to bring the price down during the halving.

The people who expect the price to go up at literally anything that happens to bitcoin is for sure overly optimistic anyway. The halving is already proposed from the day bitcoin was born and it's not a surprise. The total supply will remain the same and capped at 21 million and people shouldn't expect anything big to happen. Even I really doubt that it will do anything to bitcoin price even the slightest because halving should actually become a norm in the crypto community but people keep on discussing this. Heck, even burning coin that has done by some of the altcoins out there did nothing nowadays but it's a piece of big news like mass adoption or such that affect so much.

that makes sense, as you can see that a few months ago litecoin has been getting halving at august 2019 and you can see the latest chart and litecoin is still facing a very big downtrend right now
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/litecoin/

I think that guy has learned from another coin.
FOMO before halving looks real but that guy is saying about the result after halving. FOMO occurs when there was a lot of rumors around the market.
I can see the point what he was talking about. People will start to buy before halving and then sell after halving will have done

Thats their plain opinion however lets see how the market will react after that event. The price actions could still be inevitable because we might not know the next move of spectators, a lot of people will still buy it specially if people talks about it and heard the news. We may have different opinions but its up to the market in the end. 

I just agree with her argument to halve the prizes given in the campaign. But could not allow all to follow it because many people are in need of money. But it can not be denied the price drop because many of the airdrops prizes that when the distribution surely there is an excessive price drop because many people who do want money not only hold a project.

it probably wont affect it on the exact date of the halving, but it definetely is going to affect the price in 2 ways
1) psychologically
2) the supply will be lower , demand probably will stay the same or grow until then...

Halving is not, in fact, a miraculous mechanism that increases the value of an asset, it often relies more on supply and demand. But now I disagree with Morgan Creek, what he's doing is just trying to get people psychologically shaken and doesn't want to buy a lot of bitcoins anymore. But that's just his haphazard prediction because the previous three halving of bitcoin's price has all grown very well.

Maybe that's because everyone else in Morgan Creek are throwing let's just say "less conservative (https://www.newsbtc.com/2019/05/09/morgan-creeks-mark-yusko-explains-his-400000-bitcoin-price-prediction/)" numbers (https://u.today/bitcoin-price-to-hit-55000-after-halving-says-morgan-creek-digital-co-founder-citing-planb-analyst) :). There's bound to be at least one who disagrees when everyone else is fomoing.

I have to admit that the fomo is troubling me as bitcoin has never acted like people have wanted it to act.

By the way why this topic is on altcoin section? Please move it.

If people or whales decide to keep their bitcoin after halving the price will surely increase, maybe morgan don't know or understand what halving actually is? it will cause more scarcity and price won't be the same again

Personally I'm very sure that the price of bitcoin will surge after halving, but I don't know exactly when.
In my opinion, Morgan said that because maybe he wanted to fill his bag first before bitcoin was halving and the price skyrocketed. We need to know that smart miners will not sell cheap bitcoin after halving because of the reward they get decreases. So I am very sure bitcoin will surge like last 2017 or maybe can surpass it.

Of course, Because its only base on data history of bitcoin. That is not reality, No one can predict the situation of bitcoin. What if its more than that expected or less than that we expected. I am right? If not its not predictable. Its like lovelife that you cannot predict what will happen to their relationship. Basic!

Its better to be ready for both side ways, either good or bad can happen, the next halving might not be effective on bitcoin price because the last one doesn't until few months later

There are a lot of people who are just using history to define what the price fluctuation would be.
But who does really know what could happen? That is the future and we could not see thru it. We can just use the past to define what could happen someday.

I don't agree with him and so does the hype that a price pump will happen after the halving. There is possibility there will be no movement at all.

Either the price will surge after bitcoin halving or not i think its wise to be prepared for any outcome to avoid disappointment, it is possible that nothing might happen after the halving but i can assure you that it will help since the block reward has been reduced, this means scarcity

That's what people believes so lets respect that, each everyone of us have an opinion maybe its favorable or not, But for me personally I agree of Jason williams opinion because i believe also that halving of Bitcoin's Block reward cannot create or dictate any price momentum,since its not been supported any evidences so in short its just a plain speculation.

If you are looking for news information like this, you can find a lot of people who said the same thing in Halving 2016, but what they saw in 2017, they cried because they believed in this kind of nonsense, so let's see what will happen. later, I can't say much with evidence that a lot of people today are trying to convince the HODL to throw it away  ;D

The last time BTC halved, the price went up a few percent for a couple weeks after it happened, then it dropped a bit and took three months to recover to what it was before the halving. The last time LTC halved, the price held pretty steady for a couple months before spiking up. If mining a single Bitcoin today costs 7200 USD of super computer power and electricuty, it will cost 14200 USD after. So either price increases or hashrate drops to compensate for it.

Somewhat agree. previous halvings were significant because the drops in the bitcoin supply inflation annual rate went from 25% to 12% in the first halving, then 8.3% to 4.2% on the second halving. this halving the drop goes from 3.7% to 1.8% on an annual basis. Further, lots of people know about it, so the current price partially already reflects the halvening.

However it's still big. every halving before has triggered a huge hype cycle. this time will be no different, but it won't be as big as before. the market will start pricing this halving in by the Q1 of 2020. In other words the bottom of this bear will be this year and we will see new all time highs by the end of 2020.

People's opinions differ. Halving bitcoin will arrive soon, let's monitor the price of bitcoin during end of halving and after halving. Up or down is certain, but will it really affect the crypto market especially other altcoins. Before halving people might buy some bitcoin in preparation for halving, this will be the FOMO just before halving bitcoin.

Too many expectation are going on in the crypto industry just because of the ATH last December 2017.
They want it to happen again but it may really not.
My take is bitcoin is just going back  to $12k up to $14k. Back to how much it was at mid 2019. That will be better.
I guess they could all stop all this questions or takes about the halving since the price still fluctuated to a good number.

I accept the fact that a new ATH won't happen exactly after the halving but gradual growth will take place so there is possibility of seeing new growth by 2020 year end

I'm also saying positive speculation before the halving of Litecoin but that's a fact that until now that no sign of pushing up. But on this matter, we can't compare Litecoin to bitcoin. We know on how big the differences they have.

But last time Jason Williams predicted btc to $55,000?
Morgan Creek Digital Co-Founder Predicts Bitcoin is going to $55,000 (https://bitboycrypto.com/morgan-creek-digital-co-founder-predicts-bitcoin-is-going-to-55000/)

This is his tweet.
https://twitter.com/JWilliamsFstmed/status/1185890836862722048

I think he don't want people to ride the next bull run.  ;D

Well, he is not the only one with such opinion. You could find tons of news regarding people that were saying that halving won't do any difference once we're there. As for the majority has a good opinion about the halving, at least that what people are hoping for to happen.

Whicever it is anything's possible at this point. He might be right or the other way around. You could also find a lot of people's predictions that it will pumped the price quite high after the halving. Let's all hope for the best.

I believe that crypto market needs a big push and BTC halving together with TON coin launch would deliver that push. When it is not going to happen, we would stay on a falling market for a lot more time.

Lite pins growth wasn't as impressive as expected for me because even a Binance listing can push a cling to over 20 percent. What concerns me more is the sustained increase of the prices of these coins lest it becomes basically a pump and dump coin after all that's what we have been on to for a while now

Haha, what a joke. How this person could say such garbage.

Lets think about it, miners will receive less reward in BTC for every mined block, if the BTC price will not go up, some of them leave because it will be unprofitable for them to mine BTC, but we know, that we need miners and more miners mean more secure network. So it should be obvious that price will go up to attract miners and keep network safe.

He may be right but we have to see the larger perspective and be realistic. If you have a closer look at all previous halvings the price of btc does not simply explode the next day of halving mostly it has took 6 months to 18 months for real parabolic growth so i think this statement does not really make sense it is just a try to create panic and dump to buy themselve more btc cheaper.

How can Morgan explained the previous Halving event which affected the price of bitcoin? Since the reward will going to be divide again, the supply is affected thus making the bitcoin's price to surge. I won't judge him for speculating it, maybe he has his own reasons to say that. This is going to be interesting. If after bitcoin halving and the price will not be affected then let's see about that.

You are right. The movement of bitcoin after halving can be either ways. Perhaps will take more shape then as regards to market sentiments. I rather fold my arms and watch. Instead of investing in a gamble

J agree with this sentiment. The only way it could affect the price is so that nibers would stay profitable, but then again miners are interested in selling. Aside of market manipulation, I don't see a good way of the price rising. I doubt that demand would rise much to more the price enough. The lower selling pressure for miners might have a positive effect but nowadays most miners know better than to liquidate on spot anyway.

If Jason Williams says he thinks bitcoin halving will not affect its price come next year, he probably has his reasons for that. However, it all depends on general market perception;  if many think the halving will cause a market uptrend definitely it should have a positive impact on the market. For the past years, bitcoin halving has been a catalyst to the market and hence everyone expects history to repeat itself.